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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NE BORDER TO THE CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WERE RUNNING FROM 15 TO 28 BELOW AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 35 BELOW BY
MORNING. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 261856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NEEDED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIN STRATOCU ALSO FORMED IN
SRN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO UPDATED NEEDED FOR THIS TIME AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW WITH NW WINDS GIVING WIND CHILL VALUES 25 TO 40
BELOW. AS A RESULT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 261236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO UPDATED NEEDED FOR THIS TIME AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW WITH NW WINDS GIVING WIND CHILL VALUES 25 TO 40
BELOW. AS A RESULT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260538
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260538
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260538
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260538
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REGION HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SFC RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED VALUES...AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252316
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252316
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE STRATOCU STREAMERS WITHIN THE VALLEY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252116
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NW WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 20KT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON OR STRONGER WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252116
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SE TONIGHT AS THE 500HPA TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER
INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PLUNGE WIND CHILLS AGAIN
INTO THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT AND PUSH SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLD. LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WED. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF NW FLOW REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THOUGH...SO NO MAJOR
PRECIP EVENTS EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NW WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 20KT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON OR STRONGER WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251847
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW ENDED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP AND SKY. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON TARGET AS COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
NORTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. WIND CHILLS
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NW WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 20KT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON OR STRONGER WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
NORTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. WIND CHILLS
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
NORTH DAKOTA SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. WIND CHILLS
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL
HAVE LIGHT SNOW HANGING AROUND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL
13 TO 14Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES...WHICH ALL
HAVE VFR CIGS IF ANY AT ALL. CIGS OF 5000-10000 FT WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT...UP TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE IN PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250924
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KDVL...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY THROUGH 09Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250924
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW THIS MORNING AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED...AND VALLEY CITY HAS BEEN DOWN TO
2SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE GWINNER HAS FINALLY
SATURATED AND IS GETTING SOME SNOW AT THE SFC. THE BAND MATCHES UP
WITH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAIRLY WELL...AND THE NAM HAS
THAT AREA STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
THAT SEEMS TO FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH HAVE THE
QPF PEAKING AROUND 10Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER.
TIME HEIGHT PLOTS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE A GOOD OMEGA
BULLSEYE IN THE GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RAP PUTS
OUT NEARLY 3 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN SARGENT COUNTY...BUT THIS
SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS TAKEN OBS SITES TO
SATURATE. CONTINUED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING AND WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND THE COLD AIR MASS...WE SHOULD AGAIN GET DOWN TO THE -10
TO -20 RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN ND...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CURRENT HEADLINE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING A DIME A
DOZEN...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST. WIND CHILLS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
10 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE LATE WINTER SUN BUT WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL FEEL PRETTY RAW WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS KEEPING US MIXED WILL
ALLOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO INSTEAD
OF THE TEENS BELOW.

SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE ONLY SLGHT CHC FOR -SN BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 500MB SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK THE 500MB SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS
THE FA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE -SN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SAT-TUE WITH POST FROPA COLD
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KDVL...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY THROUGH 09Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

700MB FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW BAND LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON
RADAR...ALTHOUGH VSBY UNDER THIS BAND ARE ONLY 2SM-7SM. SATURATION
IS OCCURRING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...JUST NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THIS
WILL HAPPEN. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA TO
INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SATURATION OCCURS...BEST GUESS IS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NE
ND AND UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND (WHERE THE SNOW AND SETS
UP WEST OF THE VALLEY).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KDVL...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY THROUGH 09Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 250550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

700MB FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW BAND LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON
RADAR...ALTHOUGH VSBY UNDER THIS BAND ARE ONLY 2SM-7SM. SATURATION
IS OCCURRING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...JUST NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THIS
WILL HAPPEN. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA TO
INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SATURATION OCCURS...BEST GUESS IS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NE
ND AND UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND (WHERE THE SNOW AND SETS
UP WEST OF THE VALLEY).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT KDVL...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY THROUGH 09Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF STRONGER 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS (ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN FA). HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN EASTERLY DRY TRAJECTORY...AND ONLY ONE
OBSERVATION SITE IS REPORTING FLURRIES UNDER THE 20+ DBZ ECHOS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER END POPS...BUT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IF
ANYTHING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS MOST PLACES. DID MAINTAIN VALUES ACROSS
THE PORTION OF NW MN WITHIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY OVERRIDE THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
-SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES. KDVL MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS
QUICKLY DECLINING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242053
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242053
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR NE SO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND. -SN LINES UP WELL WITH BAND
OF ENHANCED CU FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ZONE OF 850 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
FORCING WEST OF THE FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
FORECAST. ANY OTHER CHANGES VERY MINOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR NE SO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND. -SN LINES UP WELL WITH BAND
OF ENHANCED CU FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ZONE OF 850 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
FORCING WEST OF THE FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
FORECAST. ANY OTHER CHANGES VERY MINOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR NE SO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND. -SN LINES UP WELL WITH BAND
OF ENHANCED CU FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ZONE OF 850 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
FORCING WEST OF THE FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
FORECAST. ANY OTHER CHANGES VERY MINOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR NE SO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND. -SN LINES UP WELL WITH BAND
OF ENHANCED CU FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ZONE OF 850 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
FORCING WEST OF THE FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
FORECAST. ANY OTHER CHANGES VERY MINOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH STRONG FROPA QUICKLY PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. -SN AND VSBY REDUCTION WITH BLSN
WILL END BY MID MORNING. SPORADIC GUSTS THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS LESSENING IN THE AFTN
AND DOWN UNDER 10KTS BY 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONGEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FA LINING UP WELL
IN ZONE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION FROM MSAS. THESE FEATURES PROGRESSIVE SO WHILE STRONGER
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN BLUSTERY UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH. DECENT CLEARING IN WAKE OF COLD PUSH HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SC
DEVELOPMENT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH STRONG FROPA QUICKLY PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. -SN AND VSBY REDUCTION WITH BLSN
WILL END BY MID MORNING. SPORADIC GUSTS THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS LESSENING IN THE AFTN
AND DOWN UNDER 10KTS BY 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH STRONG FROPA QUICKLY PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. -SN AND VSBY REDUCTION WITH BLSN
WILL END BY MID MORNING. SPORADIC GUSTS THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS LESSENING IN THE AFTN
AND DOWN UNDER 10KTS BY 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 241241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FROPA CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE A COUPLE HOURS OF REDUCED VSBY WITH BLSN AS WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 30KTS. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE COLUMN DRIES...EVIDENT
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 80S. FALLING TEMPS INTO MID
DAY THEN STEADY AND QUICKLY FALLING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH STRONG FROPA QUICKLY PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. -SN AND VSBY REDUCTION WITH BLSN
WILL END BY MID MORNING. SPORADIC GUSTS THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS LESSENING IN THE AFTN
AND DOWN UNDER 10KTS BY 00Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK










000
FXUS63 KFGF 241000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 241000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG






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