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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BUMPED UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA TO AREAS OF FOG AS COVERAGE
HAS BEEN LESS PATCHY IN RECENT OBS. SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM
BUT THINK THAT IT WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SO
WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW AND LEAVE OUT HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BUMPED UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA TO AREAS OF FOG AS COVERAGE
HAS BEEN LESS PATCHY IN RECENT OBS. SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM
BUT THINK THAT IT WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SO
WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW AND LEAVE OUT HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KDVL AROUND
3/4SM. THINK THAT THE FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST...BUT
KGFK AND KFAR SHOULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 6SM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BE IN THE 2-5SM RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...IN
THE 400-700 FT RANGE IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER AT KDVL. STRATUS HAS
FINALLY FILLED INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND KTVF AND KBJI HAVE
GONE MVFR. THINK THAT AT LEAST KTVF SHOULD DIP DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS AND VIS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONTINUING AT KDVL. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN AFTER 20Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
KDVL COULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON CIGS WITH CONDITIONS
MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE...AND SOME SITES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM
IN VISIBILITY. SOME SITES HAVE COME BACK UP SO THE FOG IS PRETTY
PATCHY...BUT SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR. ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE RED RIVER WESTWARD.
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN CANADA HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA SO DROPPED POPS WE HAD GOING FOR AFTER 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 272108
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THIS TAF ISSUANCE CONCERNS LOW CIGS AND VIS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO KDVL LATER TODAY. CURRENT MODELS
HAVE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST ALREADY...SO HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
CLOUD COVER AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SOMEWHAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
EXACT TIMING...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KDVL
TODAY. OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW...WITH VIS DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271751
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WELL THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING ANYWHERE
AND ARE ACTUALLY BACKING UP TO THE WEST IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE
WILL SHIFT THE FORECAST TO GO THE CLOUDY ROUTE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF SOME FOG INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TOO WHERE IT IS
LINGERING THE LONGEST. ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
TOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RECORD HIGHS NO LONGER EXISTS. WILL
ALSO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY UNDER THE CLOUDS OR
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THIS TAF ISSUANCE CONCERNS LOW CIGS AND VIS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO KDVL LATER TODAY. CURRENT MODELS
HAVE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST ALREADY...SO HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
CLOUD COVER AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SOMEWHAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
EXACT TIMING...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KDVL
TODAY. OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW...WITH VIS DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271529
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
929 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MUCH
LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND MODELS SHOW
A SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY ALL DAY...MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SSE.
SPEEDS DO PICK UP THOUGH SO THERE IS SOME HOPE OF SCOURING OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AS THEY APPEAR FAIRLY THIN. PRETTY HARD TO GET ANY
IDEA OF A TREND SO EARLY IN THE MORNING SO WILL BASICALLY STICK
WITH THE IDEA OF KEEPING CLOUDS WHERE THEY ARE THROUGH THE NOON
HOUR AND THEN BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IF CONDITIONS START TO CLEAR EARLIER WILL UPDATE
THEN. IF IT DOES CLEAR EARLIER TEMPS STAND TO RISE MORE TOO.
CURRENT RECORDS ARE

 41F...KGFK/KFGF/KFAR

THESE ARE WITHIN SHOT IF THINGS CLEAR OUT SOONER. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AT THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE IF NEED BE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/LIFR WIDESPREAD FROM THE VALLEY EAST AND SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BEEFED UP FOG MENTION ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN THIS
MORNING AS VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 MILE COMMON. VISIBILITY
HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY VS GETTING WORSE SO HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. ALSO DELAYED ANY DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM VALLEY
EAST TIL THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/LIFR WIDESPREAD FROM THE VALLEY EAST AND SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

BEEFED UP FOG MENTION ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT NW MN THIS
MORNING AS VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 MILE COMMON. VISIBILITY
HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY VS GETTING WORSE SO HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. ALSO DELAYED ANY DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM VALLEY
EAST TIL THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/LIFR WIDESPREAD FROM THE VALLEY EAST AND SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270917
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FAR AND DVL COULD SEE SOME BR OR FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
WINDS ARE CALM. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING AS SE FLOW
PICKS UP. FOR NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
INHIBIT VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO DRASTICALLY BUT CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO IFR RANGE AND 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE HRRR DOES KEEP
THE IFR CONDS IN FOR MUCH OF MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVED CONDS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270917
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FAR AND DVL COULD SEE SOME BR OR FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
WINDS ARE CALM. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING AS SE FLOW
PICKS UP. FOR NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
INHIBIT VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO DRASTICALLY BUT CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO IFR RANGE AND 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE HRRR DOES KEEP
THE IFR CONDS IN FOR MUCH OF MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVED CONDS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270531
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BE OVER EASTERN ND...KEEPING WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN SOME NEAR SFC SATURATION AND A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS COMING DOWN IN MIST. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR ALL OF
EASTERN ND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FAR AND DVL COULD SEE SOME BR OR FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
WINDS ARE CALM. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING AS SE FLOW
PICKS UP. FOR NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
INHIBIT VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO DRASTICALLY BUT CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO IFR RANGE AND 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE HRRR DOES KEEP
THE IFR CONDS IN FOR MUCH OF MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVED CONDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLY IN
VCNTY OF SFC RIDGE. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING FORM WEST TO EAST IN
W CNTRL AND NW MN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD WILL MOVE OVER BUT
MVFR DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GFK
AND FAR RIGHT ON THE FRINGE AND COULD SEE ASOS HITS AT BKN015 DUE
TO CLOUDS MAINLY TO EAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY OCCUR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE WRN EDGE ERODES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 262101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. NOT SURE IF THESE
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KDVL...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY TO NEAR 25-30KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. NOT SURE IF THESE
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KDVL...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY TO NEAR 25-30KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SEEMS LIKE TEMPS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS NORTHEAST ND WITH MORE OF A
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT THERE NOW. WARMEST TEMPS AS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH
HIGHER. STILL WATCHING THE CLOUD BAND WHICH IS CREEPING INTO KFAR
NOW. THINK THIS WILL STAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE ERODING SOME ON THE WESTERN FRINGES. GOT A
REPORT FROM SOUTH OF KBJI OF SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN YET SO ALSO
ADDED IN A MENTION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. NOT SURE IF THESE
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KDVL...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY TO NEAR 25-30KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SEEMS LIKE TEMPS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS NORTHEAST ND WITH MORE OF A
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT THERE NOW. WARMEST TEMPS AS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH
HIGHER. STILL WATCHING THE CLOUD BAND WHICH IS CREEPING INTO KFAR
NOW. THINK THIS WILL STAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE ERODING SOME ON THE WESTERN FRINGES. GOT A
REPORT FROM SOUTH OF KBJI OF SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN YET SO ALSO
ADDED IN A MENTION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. NOT SURE IF THESE
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KDVL...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY TO NEAR 25-30KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STILL SEEING SOME MIXED PCPN REPORTS UP AROUND THE SFC LOW AROUND
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THEREFORE WILL ADD IN SOME MIXED
PCPN THERE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD REGION
WIDE WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE 30S. QUESTION TODAY WILL BE
HOW WARM CAN IT GET. BASICALLY HAVE LOWER CLOUDS BISECTING THE FA
EAST OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO DETROIT LAKES. FILTERED SUN TO THE
WEST COUNTERED BY WEAK COOL ADVECTION MAKE FOR A TRICKY HIGH TEMP
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SUNNY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STILL SEEING SOME MIXED PCPN REPORTS UP AROUND THE SFC LOW AROUND
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THEREFORE WILL ADD IN SOME MIXED
PCPN THERE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE VERY MILD REGION
WIDE WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE 30S. QUESTION TODAY WILL BE
HOW WARM CAN IT GET. BASICALLY HAVE LOWER CLOUDS BISECTING THE FA
EAST OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO DETROIT LAKES. FILTERED SUN TO THE
WEST COUNTERED BY WEAK COOL ADVECTION MAKE FOR A TRICKY HIGH TEMP
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SUNNY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH A BRIEF SHRA IN WINNIPEG BACKED POPS TO THE NW A FEW HOURS
THIS AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH A BRIEF SHRA IN WINNIPEG BACKED POPS TO THE NW A FEW HOURS
THIS AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND MID WEEK PCPN
CHANCES WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THERMAL
PROFILES BUT DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MID WEEK CFP. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF ON NEARLY EVERY OF THE RECENT WAVES IN NW FLOW
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K
FT SO PULLED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE FA. EVEN THERE CANADIAN
RADARS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE THERE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
WESTERN VALLEY. BY 18Z OR SO SOME BACK DOOR COLD ADVECTION TAKES
OVER. WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART ON HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER. SW FA INTO SOUTHERN
VALLEY WILL HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR SO HAVE WARMEST READINGS
THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED
VALUES.

GOOD PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM N-S WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON MAINLY POST FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS OF OVER FORECASTING PCPN WITH THESE WAVES WILL KEEP POPS ON
LOW END UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING STRAITS AND INTO AK BY DAY 5 THEN
WEAKENS. CROSS POLAR FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES A FASTER SOLUTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY 00Z MON. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GFS KEEPS THE SAME CURRENT PATTERN WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATED MORE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU AND ONE OR
TWO DEGREES FOR FRI. HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED THREE TO SIX DEGREES
ON SAT AND ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LAST PATCH OF FAST MOVING PRECIP MOVING INTO SE ND ATTM. PRODUCING
A FEW SPRINKLES AND FARGO CAME NR 05Z WITH A FEW FLAKES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
BASED ON OBS AND DBZ ON RADAR SOME PRETTY VICIOUS VIRGA WAS
OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF DRY LAYER NR 850 MB WASNT THERE A WHOLE
DIFFERENT STORY. LIGHT SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION CONTINUES
BUT CANADIAN RADAR AND OBS INDICATE MOST OF IT WILL EXIT EAST
LATER TONGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS. LOWERED TO UP TO 1 INCH
BAUDETTE AREA. TEMP SURGE IS ON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING OVER ERN ND AND THE RRV AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ALREADY
THAT WAY IN DVL BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LAST PATCH OF FAST MOVING PRECIP MOVING INTO SE ND ATTM. PRODUCING
A FEW SPRINKLES AND FARGO CAME NR 05Z WITH A FEW FLAKES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
BASED ON OBS AND DBZ ON RADAR SOME PRETTY VICIOUS VIRGA WAS
OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF DRY LAYER NR 850 MB WASNT THERE A WHOLE
DIFFERENT STORY. LIGHT SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION CONTINUES
BUT CANADIAN RADAR AND OBS INDICATE MOST OF IT WILL EXIT EAST
LATER TONGHT AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS. LOWERED TO UP TO 1 INCH
BAUDETTE AREA. TEMP SURGE IS ON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING OVER ERN ND AND THE RRV AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ALREADY
THAT WAY IN DVL BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC. THEY
HOLD EVERYONE IN MVFR CIGS ALL NIGHT. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN. LEAVING SOME MID CLOUDS....EXCEPT FOR FAR NE FCST AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLEAR AREA IN SW MANITOBA MOVING INTO
NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THUS KEPT MOST
SITES VFR OVERNIGHT OR BECOMING THAT WAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20-25KTS. MONDAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOUDS WILL TREND. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL
MANITOBA UP NORTH OF DAUPHIN AND I THINK RAP MODEL HAS GOOD IDEA
OF THAT MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260224
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
824 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

20-22DBZ RADAR RETURNS OVER LANGDON-CAVALIER-WALHALLA PRODUCING
NOTHING FROM VARIOUS ON THE GROUND SPOTTERS AND FROM THE AWOS`S.
LOTS OF DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID CLOUD DECK TO OVERCOME. HRRR STIL
SHOWS SOME PRECIP FORMING OUT OF NOTHING NR SK/MB BORDER REGION
AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NOTHING IS THERE AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THAT AREA. SO DISREGARDED. BASED ON THAT
REMOVED WEATHER FOR DVL REGION TO VALLEY CITY (COORD WITH
BIS/ABR). KEPT A 20 POP JUST IN CASE FOR THE RRV BUT HIGHLY DOUBT
ANYTHING WILL FALL. EVEN IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WOULD APPEAR
LOOKING UPSTREAM THAT MAIN SNOW WILL TRACK A TAD EAST AND IMPACT
MORE KENORA-DRYDEN ONT INTO NE MN. WILL LEAVE POPS THERE AS IS
UNTIL MORE CLEAR DATA BECOMES AVBL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
GROUND. ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO
NE ND. BUT ALSO QUITE THE DRY LAYER NR 850 MB..SO QUITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS
MAKES DETERMINING WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND VS NOT VIA RADAR
QUITE DIFFICULT. SO FAR UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA BRANDON HAS HAD
NOTHING...AND NO OTHER REPORTS. BUT SUSPECT SOME FLURRIES AT LEAST
IN A FEW SPOTS AS 25DBZ ECHO BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST. RAP HAS BACKED
OFF ON MUCH IN ERN ND NOW TONIGHT....HRRR HAS ACTIVITY AT 00Z IN
SE SASK NR ESTEVAN AND MOVES IT SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NO
ECHOES IN THAT AREA NOW. COORD WITH BIS...LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH
ALONE THIS EVE BUT DID DRY THINGS OUT AFTER 06Z IN DVL BASIN AS
ANY THREAT OF PRECIP MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALSO UPSTREAM OBS IN
MANITOBA SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW IS QUITE FAR NORTH AND LATEST
RAP HAS MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING JUST EAST OF MINNESOTA PART OF
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
GROUND. ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO
NE ND. BUT ALSO QUITE THE DRY LAYER NR 850 MB..SO QUITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS
MAKES DETERMINING WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND VS NOT VIA RADAR
QUITE DIFFICULT. SO FAR UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA BRANDON HAS HAD
NOTHING...AND NO OTHER REPORTS. BUT SUSPECT SOME FLURRIES AT LEAST
IN A FEW SPOTS AS 25DBZ ECHO BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST. RAP HAS BACKED
OFF ON MUCH IN ERN ND NOW TONIGHT....HRRR HAS ACTIVITY AT 00Z IN
SE SASK NR ESTEVAN AND MOVES IT SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NO
ECHOES IN THAT AREA NOW. COORD WITH BIS...LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH
ALONE THIS EVE BUT DID DRY THINGS OUT AFTER 06Z IN DVL BASIN AS
ANY THREAT OF PRECIP MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALSO UPSTREAM OBS IN
MANITOBA SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW IS QUITE FAR NORTH AND LATEST
RAP HAS MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING JUST EAST OF MINNESOTA PART OF
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251552
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

WE DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TODAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WE ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR FREEZING
RAIN IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST...WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD FALL LATER
TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ICY CONDITIONS AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO NEAR FREEZING THOUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND SOME SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE
WHEREVER FREEZING RAIN FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN FA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CUT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH AREA OF CLEARING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN FA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CUT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER WITH AREA OF CLEARING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN FA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHEAST FLOW SET UP AT DVL AND CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO UPPER MVFR
RANGE...WITH ALL OTHER SITES IN THE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN VFR.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT DVL...MORE LIKELY
AT FAR...THAT COULD BRING VSBYS INTO THE 3 SM TO 5 SM RANGE. OTHER
THAN THAT...LOW VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHEAST FLOW SET UP AT DVL AND CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO UPPER MVFR
RANGE...WITH ALL OTHER SITES IN THE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN VFR.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT DVL...MORE LIKELY
AT FAR...THAT COULD BRING VSBYS INTO THE 3 SM TO 5 SM RANGE. OTHER
THAN THAT...LOW VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








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