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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALL GOING AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN ERN ND/RRV. CLEAR SKY. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TRW- IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL PROB HAVE TO ADD THEM TO WED AM
12Z-18Z PERIOD AS WELL TO PARTS OF THE RRV/NW MN AS NEGATIVE
SHOWWALTERS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES 500 OR A BIT
HIGHER MOVE THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...EWENS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS














000
FXUS63 KFGF 200451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS













000
FXUS63 KFGF 200241 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS











000
FXUS63 KFGF 200238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST











000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST










000
FXUS63 KFGF 192032
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK CLOUD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192032
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK CLOUD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
WITH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTH AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL TRANSIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
WITH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTH AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL TRANSIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS FORENOON. STEADILY CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE LATE
FORENOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK
DOWN AT SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS FORENOON. STEADILY CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE LATE
FORENOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK
DOWN AT SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD START COMING UP QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK
DOWN AT SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD START COMING UP QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK
DOWN AT SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO
MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO
MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO
MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO
MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIG COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...AND NOW CONFINED TO
KFAR...KGFK...AND KTVF. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO
THESE LOWER CIGS SCATTERING OR ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOT SOONER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO
MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIG COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...AND NOW CONFINED TO
KFAR...KGFK...AND KTVF. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO
THESE LOWER CIGS SCATTERING OR ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOT SOONER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG







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