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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260117
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260117
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER










000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER









000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER










000
FXUS63 KFGF 252146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-
     052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER









000
FXUS63 KFGF 251908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST ON TRACK....VERY LIGHT SNOW ENTERING NE ND FROM MANITOBA.
MAIN SNOW BAND WITH LOW THOUGH MINOT NOW INTO CNTRL ND. CANNOT SEE
ANY REASON TO CHANCE TOTALS OR ADVISORY AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT DVL AND FAR...HOWEVER HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT GETS
IS A BIT IN QUESTION. GFK IS SEEING SOME FLAKES BUT MAY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS. CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW...WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251618
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FCST GOING WELL. INCOMING 12Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS
ALL SHOW MAIN SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ADVERTISED MINOT AREA
TO JAMESTOWN INTO SISSESTON AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF FCST
AREA IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HEADLINES AT THE
PRESENT. SOME QUESTION ABOUT WILKIN COUNTY AND THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ADDING TO ADVISORY. WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SAME. TEMPS LOOKING GOOD SO NO CHANGES AT THE
PRESENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 5KT THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KFAR NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BAND AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251618
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FCST GOING WELL. INCOMING 12Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS
ALL SHOW MAIN SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ADVERTISED MINOT AREA
TO JAMESTOWN INTO SISSESTON AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF FCST
AREA IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HEADLINES AT THE
PRESENT. SOME QUESTION ABOUT WILKIN COUNTY AND THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ADDING TO ADVISORY. WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SAME. TEMPS LOOKING GOOD SO NO CHANGES AT THE
PRESENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 5KT THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KFAR NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BAND AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 5KT THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KFAR NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BAND AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 5KT THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KFAR NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BAND AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250944
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EVENTUALLY. THESE
CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -SN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250944
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EVENTUALLY. THESE
CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -SN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250512
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SO ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES BE REPORTED BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR (AS THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION) IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
PATCHY AND LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS (THIS IS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWARD).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EVENTUALLY. THESE
CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -SN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 250512
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SO ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES BE REPORTED BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR (AS THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION) IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
PATCHY AND LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS (THIS IS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWARD).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EVENTUALLY. THESE
CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -SN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SO ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES BE REPORTED BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR (AS THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION) IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
PATCHY AND LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS (THIS IS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWARD).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SO ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES BE REPORTED BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR (AS THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION) IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
PATCHY AND LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS (THIS IS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWARD).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHIND DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHIND DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHIND DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242050
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242050
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WIND ADVSIORY. WFO ABR WILL DROP THEIRS AS WELL.
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TWEEKED SKY COVER AS
CLEARING LINE MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY....BUT PATCHES OF
CLOUDS REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY SO NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 232258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 232258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232046
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231514
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR FA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOTS OF
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN REGARD TO PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE AND ALSO WINDS
AND TEMPS. AS OF THIS MORNING LOTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. KDVL STILL AT 37F AND HERE IN GRAND FORKS
THE TEMP AT 41F. REGIONAL RADARS NOT PICKING UP TOO MUCH BUT
THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THRU KFAR NOW AND EVEN HAD
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN KGFK. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE PCPN TYPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO MENTION JUST LIQUID TYPE. SO SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING MOVING EAST OF KFAR. OTHERWISE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
FA UNTIL AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN MORE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO VERY LITTLE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200. WITH LESS FALLING SNOW...BLSN ALSO TOUGHER TO GET. THE TEMPS
IN THE 40S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE ALSO SHRUNK THE SNOW PACK
OR CRUSTED IT. THEREFORE ALSO REMOVED THE BLSN MENTIONED TODAY AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REMOVE IT FOR
TONIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 231514
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR FA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOTS OF
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN REGARD TO PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE AND ALSO WINDS
AND TEMPS. AS OF THIS MORNING LOTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. KDVL STILL AT 37F AND HERE IN GRAND FORKS
THE TEMP AT 41F. REGIONAL RADARS NOT PICKING UP TOO MUCH BUT
THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THRU KFAR NOW AND EVEN HAD
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN KGFK. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE PCPN TYPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO MENTION JUST LIQUID TYPE. SO SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING MOVING EAST OF KFAR. OTHERWISE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
FA UNTIL AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN MORE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO VERY LITTLE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200. WITH LESS FALLING SNOW...BLSN ALSO TOUGHER TO GET. THE TEMPS
IN THE 40S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE ALSO SHRUNK THE SNOW PACK
OR CRUSTED IT. THEREFORE ALSO REMOVED THE BLSN MENTIONED TODAY AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REMOVE IT FOR
TONIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT
A LULL BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS PATCHY
FOG IN ALL AREAS AND WILL KEEP MENTION UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT
A LULL BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS PATCHY
FOG IN ALL AREAS AND WILL KEEP MENTION UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230607
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS UPDATES CONTINUE TO BE WORKING OUT...IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
WENT INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DID TAKE OUT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE MIXED PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UPDATED THE SPS TO
MENTION THE MAIN CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230607
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS UPDATES CONTINUE TO BE WORKING OUT...IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
WENT INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DID TAKE OUT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE MIXED PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UPDATED THE SPS TO
MENTION THE MAIN CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG











000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG











000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







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