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000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON UPSTREAM/LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FEEL ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJI AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. SC WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NR 30 KTS ESP IN THE RRV. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EITHER WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW IN
MINNESOTA OR DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING WORKS SOUTH. ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS ENTERING THE INTERLAKE REGION OF MANITOBA SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLEARING TRENDS TO BETTER TIME CLEARING THRU
THE DAY.   CLEAR SKY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJ AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NR 30 KTS ESP IN THE RRV. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EITHER WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW IN
MINNESOTA OR DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING WORKS SOUTH. ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS ENTERING THE INTERLAKE REGION OF MANITOBA SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLEARING TRENDS TO BETTER TIME CLEARING THRU
THE DAY.   CLEAR SKY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300808
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJ AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 300437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY GET A BIT OF A
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT SAT SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WILL KEEP TEMP TREND IN PLACE
FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD ATTM SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 292351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS...TEMPS...AND PCPN FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT
SHOWS APPRECIABLE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...DO NOT LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SFC OBS SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH RADAR RETURNS SO CUT BACK ON POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS FOR TVF AND BJI TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT
TO GO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AFT 12-16Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 292003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.

TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291803
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
103 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SOLAR
BUT THE WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO ONLY INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE IT ARRIVING INTO VALLEY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED CLOUDY AREAS BY ANOTHER 3 DEG
TODAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 39 OR 40 BY SUNDOWN.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS ALONG THE CLOUD FREE LINE EASTWARD
TO WHERE THE LINE IS LOCATED AT SUNDOWN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE
CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT...WILL
ADDRESS AT 4 PM UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM  CDT WED OCT 29 2014

BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM  CDT WED OCT 29 2014

BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI.  WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291137
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM  CDT WED OCT 29 2014

BACKEDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACKEDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI.  WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
USING THE TIME/DISTANCE TOOL ON AWIPS...THE CLOUD EDGE SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FAR WEST AROUND 11-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND NOT INTO THE
VALLEY UNTIL 18Z...IF THE SPEED CONTINUES. THEREFORE...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
TEMPS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. IF IT DOES
CLEAR OUT IN ANY AREA...THEN IT WILL BE COLDER...AND THIS COULD
OCCUR ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH WED AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED FROM WEST TO EAST...BEFORE MID CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. HAVE GONE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND FEEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ALL NIGHT EVEN IN THE WEST...BUT WE WILL MONITOR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 282346
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH WED AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED FROM WEST TO EAST...BEFORE MID CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. HAVE GONE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND FEEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ALL NIGHT EVEN IN THE WEST...BUT WE WILL MONITOR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 282024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE
QUICKLY BRINGS A LOW STRATUS DECK BACK IN TOWARD MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS BACK IN DURING THE 09Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME...AS RH LAYER APPEARS TO DRY OUT BEFORE MORE LOW
CLOUDS COME IN AROUND NOON TOMORROW. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
AREA IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE NW TO W THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER










000
FXUS63 KFGF 281732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SEEING MORE OF A MIX OR -SN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SO ADDED -SN OR
MIX ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A TENTH OR
TWO OVER THE FAR NE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. WITH MOIST LAYER AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40
WILL LET CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS BECOME VERY
LIGHT SO THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. COULD REALLY GO
WITH DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION WHERE SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP AND IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WINDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE
QUICKLY BRINGS A LOW STRATUS DECK BACK IN TOWARD MORNING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS BACK IN DURING THE 09Z TO
15Z TIMEFRAME...AS RH LAYER APPEARS TO DRY OUT BEFORE MORE LOW
CLOUDS COME IN AROUND NOON TOMORROW. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
AREA IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIMEFRAME. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE NW TO W THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. WITH MOIST LAYER AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40
WILL LET CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS BECOME VERY
LIGHT SO THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. COULD REALLY GO
WITH DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION WHERE SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP AND IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WINDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

REALLY NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND WINDS. STUCK WITH MVFR
CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALSO RISING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WORK IN THIS
EVENING SO KEPT THINGS BKN FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281144
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. PCPN HAS BECOME VERY
LIGHT SO THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. COULD REALLY GO
WITH DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION WHERE SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP AND IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WINDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

REALLY NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND WINDS. STUCK WITH MVFR
CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALSO RISING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL WORK IN THIS
EVENING SO KEPT THINGS BKN FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES/PCPN TYPE AND TEMPS. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE THICK ACROSS THE FA.
THIS WAS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP AND THUS RESULTING IN RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS WERE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS JUST A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER. WINDS WERE ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST
TOO WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. BASICALLY EXPECT THE SFC
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE UP TOWARD JAMES BAY
TODAY. HOWEVER A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO HANG BACK INTO OUR
NORTHEAST FA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY.
THE LIGHT PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS WIND SPEEDS. WILL HAVE A DECENT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERED SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA THIS EVENING. THINK THIS
WILL ALSO STAY MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLAKES AROUND AGAIN. MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING TRYING TO WORK ITS
WAY IN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO WILL KEEP COOLER MIN TEMPS ACROSS
THE WEST. NO DOUBT TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLEARING
OCCURS OR NOT. MODELS ARE STICKING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU ON WED/WED NIGHT SO LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT WED NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON THU WITH SOME LATE DAY
SUN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THU NIGHT BRINGING QUITE
CHILLY MIN TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKY AND THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON.  HIGHS MOST AREAS EVEN WITH SUN
WILL BE 35-40.  SOUTHEAST WIND TO PICK UP FRI NIGHT AS HIGH DEPARTS
LEADING TO A BIT MILDER WEEKEND AS TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL.
NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA MONDAY.  TIMING
IS DIFFERENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS.  BUT BOTH
WOULD HAVE SOME CHC OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND GUST OVER 30 KT BY TUE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTER AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND GUST OVER 30 KT BY TUE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTER AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND GUST OVER 30 KT BY TUE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EASTER AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280228
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WE WILL TONE DOWN POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WITH A WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOWEST 1000FT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
GUST OVER 30KT BY TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT
35KT TO MIX UP THROUGH 900 MB.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 272316
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
616 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WE
WILL MONITOR THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP THIS EVENING AND TEMPS...BUT
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
GUST OVER 30KT BY TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT
35KT TO MIX UP THROUGH 900 MB.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 272000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AHEAD MAINLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME STRONGER FROM THE NW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT
THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR TERRITORY AFT 06Z IN THE DVL BASIN...AND
SHIFTING E THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE LOW OF ANY
PCPN AFT 09Z SO WILL WAIT ON ANY MENTION ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS GRANT COUNTY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SPREAD SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM THE BEST BET (STILL DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS).

UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS
NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE...AND RAISED POPS FOR
TONIGHT. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS FA...BUT GENERALLY
COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. KEPT THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO
MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A BIT MORE COMPLEX FCST THIS GO AROUND. ONE 500 MB LOW IN WEST
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE TWO
WILL GENERALLY COMBINE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHERN
ND/SRN MANITOBA AND MOVE INTO NRN MN 12Z TUESDAY. CANADIAN
RADARS/OBS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH BOTH UPPER SYSTEMS AND
FCST AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TO START THE DAY.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST EAST OF THE BROAD 500 MB LOW AND BRING A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF A BDE-FAR LINE)
MID AFTN INTO EVENING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING COLD ADVECTION AT 925-850 MB WILL
INCREASE AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND EXPECT AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS DECK WILL BE PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH BEST CHC IN NRN FCST AREA. 925 MB-SFC TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C IN DVL BASIN MAY LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OCCURRING WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. BREEZY CHILLY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE WITH TEMPS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
DURING THE DAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 15-25 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER LOW AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO EXIT AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THRU WED
AFTN BUT APPEARS MOISTURE IS MORE MID LEVEL AND WITH SFC DEW PTS
IN THE 20S NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THU. MAIN EFFECTS MAY BE NORTH-NW WINDS THAT COULD BE A
LITTLE BREEZY. 500MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRI/SAT WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ON FRI AND THEN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS SAT. MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS SHOWING A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF KEEPS SUNDAY DRY WITH THE MAIN PCPN EFFECTS COMING MORE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH THE LOW KEEPING MORE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AHEAD MAINLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME STRONGER FROM THE NW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT
THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR TERRITORY AFT 06Z IN THE DVL BASIN...AND
SHIFTING E THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE LOW OF ANY
PCPN AFT 09Z SO WILL WAIT ON ANY MENTION ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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