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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
NO OR LIMITED SNOW COVER) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ALREADY.
WILL USE THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR GUIDANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPS
MOST AREAS (MID TO UPPER 30S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER...AND
NEAR FREEZING WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING.  A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT.  RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 211826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
NO OR LIMITED SNOW COVER) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ALREADY.
WILL USE THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR GUIDANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPS
MOST AREAS (MID TO UPPER 30S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER...AND
NEAR FREEZING WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING.  A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT.  RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211540
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SYSTEM PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY WITH THIS REGION
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
NOT MUCH ABOVE 20 KNOTS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING
LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...HOW WARM CAN WE
GET. CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED (I.E. SLIGHTLY WARMER NW MN GIVEN CURRENT
VALUES).


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED VFR CIGS
ALSO THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 211540
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SYSTEM PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY WITH THIS REGION
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
NOT MUCH ABOVE 20 KNOTS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING
LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...HOW WARM CAN WE
GET. CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED (I.E. SLIGHTLY WARMER NW MN GIVEN CURRENT
VALUES).


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED VFR CIGS
ALSO THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHER AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED VFR CIGS
ALSO THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHER AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED VFR CIGS
ALSO THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210919
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHER AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO SD. SAT LOOP TRENDS SHOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE KDVL GO MVFR FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT...BUT KEPT ONLY A SCATTERED 1500 FT DECK FOR STATIONS
FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRATUS
BAND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THEY SHOULD PICK UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210919
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHER AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO SD. SAT LOOP TRENDS SHOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE KDVL GO MVFR FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT...BUT KEPT ONLY A SCATTERED 1500 FT DECK FOR STATIONS
FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRATUS
BAND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THEY SHOULD PICK UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES TO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN CWA. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT HIGHER. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED RISING IN MOST AREAS SO CONTINUED THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO SD. SAT LOOP TRENDS SHOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE KDVL GO MVFR FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT...BUT KEPT ONLY A SCATTERED 1500 FT DECK FOR STATIONS
FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRATUS
BAND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THEY SHOULD PICK UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES TO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
NORTHERN CWA. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT HIGHER. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED RISING IN MOST AREAS SO CONTINUED THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A BAND OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO SD. SAT LOOP TRENDS SHOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE KDVL GO MVFR FOR A PERIOD
TONIGHT...BUT KEPT ONLY A SCATTERED 1500 FT DECK FOR STATIONS
FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRATUS
BAND HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND THEY SHOULD PICK UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210044
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210044
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY INTO
THE LATE EVENING. VFR CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY INTO
THE LATE EVENING. VFR CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201907
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF CLOUDS INTO
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION IN THAT REGION
AND THE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LEANING TOWARD A CONS RAW
TYPE MIN TEMP SOLUTION WITH THE LARGEST GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE UPDATED HOURLIES FOR BASICALLY STEADY TO
RISING TEMPS WEST OF THE FORESTED AREA OF MINNESOTA...AND DIURNAL
IN THE FORESTED REGION AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER N CNTRL MN AND
WINDS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND 12Z
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF A LOW MVFR DECK
CURRENTLY ALONG AND BEHIND A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. NOT ENOUGH
EARLY AM VIS IMAGES TO GET A GOOD TRACK ON SPEED WITH SPEED/TOA
TOOL...BUT SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT FOR 1 PM CST UPDATE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS MORE
CONFIDENT THE EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST DEVILS
LAKE BEFORE SUNDOWN. SAME ISSUE WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO
EXPECT A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WHICH PREV FCST ALREADY SUGGESTS. AGAIN DVL REGION WILL BE
MOST CHALLENGING AREA AS CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY INTO
THE LATE EVENING. VFR CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF A LOW MVFR DECK
CURRENTLY ALONG AND BEHIND A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. NOT ENOUGH
EARLY AM VIS IMAGES TO GET A GOOD TRACK ON SPEED WITH SPEED/TOA
TOOL...BUT SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT FOR 1 PM CST UPDATE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS MORE
CONFIDENT THE EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST DEVILS
LAKE BEFORE SUNDOWN. SAME ISSUE WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO
EXPECT A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WHICH PREV FCST ALREADY SUGGESTS. AGAIN DVL REGION WILL BE
MOST CHALLENGING AREA AS CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF A LOW MVFR DECK
CURRENTLY ALONG AND BEHIND A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. NOT ENOUGH
EARLY AM VIS IMAGES TO GET A GOOD TRACK ON SPEED WITH SPEED/TOA
TOOL...BUT SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT FOR 1 PM CST UPDATE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS MORE
CONFIDENT THE EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST DEVILS
LAKE BEFORE SUNDOWN. SAME ISSUE WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO
EXPECT A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WHICH PREV FCST ALREADY SUGGESTS. AGAIN DVL REGION WILL BE
MOST CHALLENGING AREA AS CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS...SOME REBOUNDING OF TEMPS
HAS OCCURED SO BACKED OFF ON LOWS A DEGREE OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS...SOME REBOUNDING OF TEMPS
HAS OCCURED SO BACKED OFF ON LOWS A DEGREE OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS EVEN KBJI
HAS CLEARED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
BECOME VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS AS MOST OF THE STRATUS AND SNOW REPORTS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REST OF THE
CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WENT DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF LANGDON AND THE
FOSSTON AREA AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200047
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200047
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...SNOW CURRENTLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR. AGREE THAT WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT TOO MUCH SO KEPT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS STILL HANGING AROUND KBJI...BUT OTHER TAF
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THINK THAT KBJI SHOULD
SEE CIGS BEGIN TO COME UP BY EARLY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHTER AND BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND
TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192047
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONDS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CIGS AT DVL
SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...PERSISTING
THE LONGEST AT TVF/BJI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST...ALTHOUGH THE FOREST WILL HELP WINDS DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192047
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS/SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA CONTINUED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND. WEB CAMS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT IS PRETTY CLEAR ALREADY FROM LANGDON
DOWN THRU KDVL. ASSUMING CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD CLEAR
OFF PRETTY QUICK ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL TAKE LONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WHERE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DECREASE WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU MEANING MORE SUN AND
MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LACK OF MUCH MIXING MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
WARMING MUCH OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. LAST SUNNY DAY WE HAD THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WARMED MORE THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO MORE EXPOSED BLACK SOIL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN
THU. PRETTY DECENT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THU NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT IN THICKER MID CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. THESE MID CLOUDS
MAY PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL BUT WILL LOOK AT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SAT NIGHT THRU WED...THE LONG TERM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER
WILL DART ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND SNOW COULD END UP REMAINING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER. MEANWHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DRAW PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW...QUITE
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE COULD SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA. SUPERBLEND GIVES US 50 PERCENT POPS IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THAT FAR
EAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE UNSEASONALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR IS PULL INTO THE REGION BY THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD COULD SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONDS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CIGS AT DVL
SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...PERSISTING
THE LONGEST AT TVF/BJI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST...ALTHOUGH THE FOREST WILL HELP WINDS DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SEEING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FILLING IN SOME OF THE HOLES OVER THE FA
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SUNNY SPOTS NORTHWEST OF KDVL. SEEING
SOME CONVECTIVE STREAMERS MOVING SE FROM THE OPEN WATERS OF KDVL
AFFECTING SITES AS FAR SE AS KFAR. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A
SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW FROM KDVL DOWN THRU KFAR. WEB CAMS AND OBS
SHOW THE LOWEST VSBYS FROM SNOW AROUND KBDE/KBJI WHICH ARE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIGGER LAKES THERE TOO. ALSO RADAR IS PICKING UP
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM KGFK TO KCKN TO KDTL. UPPED TO
LIKELY PCPN CHANCES AROUND THE FAR NE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPS WORKING
OUT NICELY SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. HAD A REPORT OF SOME LOWER
VSBYS FROM BLSN DOWN AROUND HOFFMAN MN IN GRANT CO. ELBOW LAKE HAS
BETTER VSBYS BUT EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BLSN IN GRANT COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONDS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CIGS AT DVL
SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...PERSISTING
THE LONGEST AT TVF/BJI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST...ALTHOUGH THE FOREST WILL HELP WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SEEING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FILLING IN SOME OF THE HOLES OVER THE FA
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SUNNY SPOTS NORTHWEST OF KDVL. SEEING
SOME CONVECTIVE STREAMERS MOVING SE FROM THE OPEN WATERS OF KDVL
AFFECTING SITES AS FAR SE AS KFAR. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A
SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW FROM KDVL DOWN THRU KFAR. WEB CAMS AND OBS
SHOW THE LOWEST VSBYS FROM SNOW AROUND KBDE/KBJI WHICH ARE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIGGER LAKES THERE TOO. ALSO RADAR IS PICKING UP
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM KGFK TO KCKN TO KDTL. UPPED TO
LIKELY PCPN CHANCES AROUND THE FAR NE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPS WORKING
OUT NICELY SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. HAD A REPORT OF SOME LOWER
VSBYS FROM BLSN DOWN AROUND HOFFMAN MN IN GRANT CO. ELBOW LAKE HAS
BETTER VSBYS BUT EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BLSN IN GRANT COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONDS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CIGS AT DVL
SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...PERSISTING
THE LONGEST AT TVF/BJI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST...ALTHOUGH THE FOREST WILL HELP WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191606
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SEEING QUITE A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH IS
ALLOWING IN SOME MORNING SUN. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A LARGE CLEAR
AREA UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
HAVE UPDATED THE CLOUD FORECAST TO GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LIKE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY AGAIN FILL BACK IN IN SPOTS SO
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOO. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THE VALLEY. THE
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE STREAMERS COMING
OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES EXTENDING TO THE SSE. TRAJECTORIES TODAY
FAVOR THESE AFFECTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE VALLEY. MAY ALSO BE
LOCAL SNOWS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE OF THE WOODS AND THE UPPER AND
LOWER RED LAKES ON THE MN SIDE AND DEVILS LAKE ON THE ND SIDE.
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ALTHOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO COVER THE FA TODAY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
CIGS RISING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191606
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SEEING QUITE A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH IS
ALLOWING IN SOME MORNING SUN. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A LARGE CLEAR
AREA UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
HAVE UPDATED THE CLOUD FORECAST TO GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LIKE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY AGAIN FILL BACK IN IN SPOTS SO
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOO. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THE VALLEY. THE
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE STREAMERS COMING
OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES EXTENDING TO THE SSE. TRAJECTORIES TODAY
FAVOR THESE AFFECTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE VALLEY. MAY ALSO BE
LOCAL SNOWS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE OF THE WOODS AND THE UPPER AND
LOWER RED LAKES ON THE MN SIDE AND DEVILS LAKE ON THE ND SIDE.
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ALTHOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO COVER THE FA TODAY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
CIGS RISING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191239
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MIXING AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. WITH
CURRENT VALUES HAD TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ALTHOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO COVER THE FA TODAY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
CIGS RISING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191239
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MIXING AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. WITH
CURRENT VALUES HAD TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ALTHOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO COVER THE FA TODAY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
CIGS RISING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MANY SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS CIGS LIFT BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH KBJI AND
KTVF HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE 2-5SM VIS
WILL MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
WITH NO VIS PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SOME RECOVERY TO VFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONCE KBJI SHIFTS AROUND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MANY SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS CIGS LIFT BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH KBJI AND
KTVF HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE 2-5SM VIS
WILL MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
WITH NO VIS PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SOME RECOVERY TO VFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONCE KBJI SHIFTS AROUND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MANY SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS CIGS LIFT BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH KBJI AND
KTVF HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE 2-5SM VIS
WILL MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
WITH NO VIS PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SOME RECOVERY TO VFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONCE KBJI SHIFTS AROUND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MANY SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS CIGS LIFT BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH KBJI AND
KTVF HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE 2-5SM VIS
WILL MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
WITH NO VIS PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SOME RECOVERY TO VFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONCE KBJI SHIFTS AROUND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190553
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW BAND AS
THE INCOMING CLOUD DECK OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF ND HAS SOME
CONTINUED REPORTS OF -SN. BEST CHANCES FOR ANYTHING ACCUMULATING
WILL BE IN THE EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND...ALTHOUGH VIS ARE NOT VERY LIMITED
AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
WITH VIS AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES IN SOME SPOTS. WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH
POPS IN THE EAST BUT SOME CHANCE MENTION IN THE WEST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH
BUT THINK THAT WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MANY SITES HAVE GONE VFR AS CIGS LIFT BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH KBJI AND
KTVF HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE 2-5SM VIS
WILL MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
WITH NO VIS PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. MVFR CONDTIONS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SOME RECOVERY TO VFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ONCE KBJI SHIFTS AROUND. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND...ALTHOUGH VIS ARE NOT VERY LIMITED
AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
WITH VIS AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES IN SOME SPOTS. WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH
POPS IN THE EAST BUT SOME CHANCE MENTION IN THE WEST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH
BUT THINK THAT WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED BUT SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...AND KDVL HAS ALREADY SEEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT
25 GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHWEST. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN NOT FAR BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...AND CIGS WILL STAY BELOW 3000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO VFR MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND...ALTHOUGH VIS ARE NOT VERY LIMITED
AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE REACHING THE GROUND.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
WITH VIS AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES IN SOME SPOTS. WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH
POPS IN THE EAST BUT SOME CHANCE MENTION IN THE WEST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH
BUT THINK THAT WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED BUT SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...AND KDVL HAS ALREADY SEEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT
25 GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHWEST. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN NOT FAR BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...AND CIGS WILL STAY BELOW 3000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO VFR MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED BUT SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...AND KDVL HAS ALREADY SEEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT
25 GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHWEST. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN NOT FAR BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...AND CIGS WILL STAY BELOW 3000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO VFR MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO REACH THE
GROUND...ALTHOUGH VERY VERY LIGHT. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE VERY
MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING...BUT WENT WITH
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TRANSITIONING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MODELS AGREE THAT IF ANYTHING
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES IT WILL BE EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN...SO INCLUDED A BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN THAT AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN RISING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS WILL BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED BUT SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...AND KDVL HAS ALREADY SEEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT
25 GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHWEST. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN NOT FAR BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT...AND CIGS WILL STAY BELOW 3000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE GOING BACK UP TO VFR MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RATHER BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 182114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THE STRONGER NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WED. THERE
WILL ALSO BE MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 182114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR NOW THE MAIN HOLE IN THE
CLOUDS HAS SHIFTED UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN INTO THE MID 20S. ANY HOLES UPSTREAM HAVE
FILLED BACK IN WITH CLOUDS. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND AND NORTHWEST OF KMOT WHICH IS THE SIGN OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN 925-850MB COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO STAY OVER
CENTRAL ND AND MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO SE ND. THEREFORE NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND TO
GET INTO MOST OF THIS FA TONIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL COME UP AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER UNLESS THERE IS
MUCH MORE FALLING SNOW THAN EXPECTED DO NOT ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO
GET THAT BAD. SPEAKING OF SNOW THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DOING
THAT GREAT OF A JOB CURRENTLY. RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO
THE COOPERSTOWN AREA BUT HAVE NOT SEEN MANY OBS CONFIRMING MUCH AT
THE SFC. HAVE STUCK IN SOME LATE AFTERNOON FLURRIES FOR EAST
CENTRAL ND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS COMING OFF THE MANITOBA LAKES WHICH WOULD MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THOUGH.
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WED. ELECTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY BLSN AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SO MINIMAL
IN REGARD TO SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF THERE IS MORE SNOW THAN
EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE
WOODS INTO WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THU WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY BY THU NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
CLOUD COVER. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY INTO THE TEMP FORECAST. STILL THINK THE MID 20S ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRI BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM
UP SAT/SUN...THEN SOME SNOW/BLSN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SAT/SUN...AND THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. A HYBRID
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 35KT TO MIX FROM
AROUND 925MB. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN BLOWING SNOW COULD
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AND WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THE STRONGER NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WED. THERE
WILL ALSO BE MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS WED WITH LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK







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