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000
FXUS63 KFGF 022006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 022006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021716 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021716 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021716 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021709
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT FORECST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021709
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENT FORECST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CU WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING NEAR SUNSET. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS AND CU TO AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRESHENED UP NEAR TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MANY HAIL REPORTS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. LARGEST HAIL WAS 2.5 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. REST OF THE DAY WILL
ONLY HAVE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING BEHIND UPPER WAVE...
WITH COOLER HIGHS THAN YESTERDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021215
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021215
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021215
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021215
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WESTERN EDGE OF STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AROUND 530-6 AM AS IT
MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 50 KTS NOTED ON SPC MESO PAGE FARGO-DTL-WADENA AREA. UDPATED TO
ADD POPS INTO WADENA AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES FOR 2-3 HOURS AND
REMOVED POPS FROM GFK-CKN-BDE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND AC BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A NORTH WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO IN THE RRV AND E ND. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... THUNDERSTORM CELLS DROPPING FROM MANITOBA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME... WITH LARGE
HAIL INDICATED IN CELLS FROM HUMBOLDT...ACROSS CARIBOU INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... THUNDERSTORM CELLS DROPPING FROM MANITOBA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME... WITH LARGE
HAIL INDICATED IN CELLS FROM HUMBOLDT...ACROSS CARIBOU INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... THUNDERSTORM CELLS DROPPING FROM MANITOBA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME... WITH LARGE
HAIL INDICATED IN CELLS FROM HUMBOLDT...ACROSS CARIBOU INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... THUNDERSTORM CELLS DROPPING FROM MANITOBA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME... WITH LARGE
HAIL INDICATED IN CELLS FROM HUMBOLDT...ACROSS CARIBOU INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... WATCH NUMBER 460 IS CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020206
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... WATCH NUMBER 460 IS CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
839 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
839 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
839 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
839 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 FOR ALL FGF COUNTIES
EXCEPT GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THO GRANT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE PULLED OUT
BEFORE THEN. MEANWHILE... STORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST BEGINNING TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE US. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO REDUCED CAPE... THOUGH SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THESOUTHERN FA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE IS NOW MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK AND
MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH OF A
CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 HASD BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COUNTIES...
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THAT AREA BY 04Z.

LATER TONIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK
AND MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH
OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MIX. SCTATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TEH MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 HASD BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COUNTIES...
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THAT AREA BY 04Z.

LATER TONIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK
AND MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH
OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MIX. SCTATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TEH MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 HASD BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COUNTIES...
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THAT AREA BY 04Z.

LATER TONIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK
AND MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH
OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MIX. SCTATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TEH MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 HASD BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COUNTIES...
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THAT AREA BY 04Z.

LATER TONIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM SOUTHERN SASK
AND MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA... ALG AND NORTH
OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE... WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG AND VSBY IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MIX. SCTATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TEH MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. AT 17Z...DEWPOINT VALUES AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC LOW/CONVERGENCE AREA ARE POOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...WHICH HAD LED TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE CAP IS
STILL STRONG...BUT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F THIS CAP WILL
ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F. ANY ISOLD STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KNTS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. A
STRONGER WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 500MB WINDS AOA 50
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. AT 17Z...DEWPOINT VALUES AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC LOW/CONVERGENCE AREA ARE POOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...WHICH HAD LED TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE CAP IS
STILL STRONG...BUT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F THIS CAP WILL
ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F. ANY ISOLD STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KNTS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. A
STRONGER WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 500MB WINDS AOA 50
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. AT 17Z...DEWPOINT VALUES AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC LOW/CONVERGENCE AREA ARE POOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...WHICH HAD LED TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE CAP IS
STILL STRONG...BUT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F THIS CAP WILL
ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F. ANY ISOLD STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KNTS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. A
STRONGER WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 500MB WINDS AOA 50
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. AT 17Z...DEWPOINT VALUES AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC LOW/CONVERGENCE AREA ARE POOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...WHICH HAD LED TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE CAP IS
STILL STRONG...BUT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F THIS CAP WILL
ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F. ANY ISOLD STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KNTS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. A
STRONGER WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 500MB WINDS AOA 50
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.

FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.

LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL CU ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE WEAK RADAR RETURNS.
INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER FOR THIS FORCING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DEVELOPMENT (PLUS THERE IS ALREADY A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS.
WILL BE WATCHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN AHEAD
OF AN 850MB WIND SHIFT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW 60S...AND POSSIBLY MID 60S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE AT
LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG...AND COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP (WILL THEY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FA...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH?)...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON
CAPPING (WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE). STILL NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION T+ IN THE GRIDS...WILL AWAIT THE NEXT
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND ADJUST FROM THERE.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THIS ACTIVITY IN MORE DEPTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL CU ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE WEAK RADAR RETURNS.
INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER FOR THIS FORCING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DEVELOPMENT (PLUS THERE IS ALREADY A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS.
WILL BE WATCHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN AHEAD
OF AN 850MB WIND SHIFT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION...DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW 60S...AND POSSIBLY MID 60S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE AT
LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG...AND COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. STILL SOME QUESTION
REGARDING WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP (WILL THEY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FA...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH?)...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON
CAPPING (WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE). STILL NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION T+ IN THE GRIDS...WILL AWAIT THE NEXT
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND ADJUST FROM THERE.

AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THIS ACTIVITY IN MORE DEPTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FEW WEAK RETURN ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL ND OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FEW WEAK RETURN ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL ND OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FEW WEAK RETURN ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL ND OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FEW WEAK RETURN ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL ND OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED TWO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATED BANDS OF CLOUDS. CLOUD SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS WEE HIGH AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010857
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.   00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS.  BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 312330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 312330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 312330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 312330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR...CAVU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 312025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311729
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK...TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311729
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK...TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311729
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK...TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311729
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK...TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR GENERAL THUNDER
IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR GENERAL THUNDER
IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR GENERAL THUNDER
IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES AS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR GENERAL THUNDER
IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SKIES CLEAR. FCST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SKIES CLEAR. FCST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SKIES CLEAR. FCST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A BIT BREEZY AGAIN TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A FEW VFR CU TO FORM WITH HEATING...MOST
NUMEROUS IN NW MN. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA/HUDSON BAY-GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY SHIFT EAST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE DECREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE TIMING ON THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS ON
WED OTHERWISE GFS WAS FASTER ON OTHER DAYS. THE ECMWF TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN SPEED UP WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON THROUGH WED. HIGH TEMPS
DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR THU COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO.
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR FCST AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WCNTRL
MANITOBA INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS AFTN AND LIKE
YESTERDAY ISOLD T-STORMS PSBL WITH IT LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
GOOD FOR SOME CU TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AHD OF COOL FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE DUE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER ERN SD INTO SRN MN.
TO BLEND INCLUDED A LOW POP FOR GRANT COUNTY MN. OTHERWISE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH IS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. KEPT IT DRY BUT COULD
SEE RISK OF A T-STORM MID TO LATE AFTN AS THAT AREA REMAINS CLOSER
TO JET STREAM ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING IT MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLD T-STORM OR TWO. A TAD COOLER SUNDAY...ESP NRN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SPOTTY MID CLOUD OVER BJI OTHERWISE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY SKC...INCREASING NW WINDS
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR NE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 310240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 310240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER




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