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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 222335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221954
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAY ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALL GOING AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN ERN ND/RRV. CLEAR SKY. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TRW- IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL PROB HAVE TO ADD THEM TO WED AM
12Z-18Z PERIOD AS WELL TO PARTS OF THE RRV/NW MN AS NEGATIVE
SHOWWALTERS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES 500 OR A BIT
HIGHER MOVE THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK








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