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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260815
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 251739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FASTER TO CLEAR OUT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
REACHING THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED SKIES TO MAKE THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOVE THE
CLOUDINESS A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE MID 50S SO BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT TO THE 60 MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FASTER TO CLEAR OUT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
REACHING THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED SKIES TO MAKE THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOVE THE
CLOUDINESS A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE MID 50S SO BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT TO THE 60 MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...DK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 250830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. MODELS MAY BE
TOO FAST IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250301
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
WIND...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL IN THE FAR EAST...HAVE LEFT SOME VERY
LOW POPS HERE...BUT JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE HERE WITH MOST
AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250301
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WE HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
WIND...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL IN THE FAR EAST...HAVE LEFT SOME VERY
LOW POPS HERE...BUT JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE HERE WITH MOST
AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 242341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT...BUT JUST
KEPT THEM AT KFAR FOR NOW. THINK THAT KGFK KTVF AND KDVL SHOULD GO
DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 242055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 242055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES. BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD/AMPLIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84
HOURS.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SAT AND SUN TO THE
EASTERN ZONES.

WENT COOLER FOR SUN AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LOW/BROAD TROF OVER ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS BRINGS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AS LOW SHIFTS INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...AND
THEN BEGINS TO SPIN OVER HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
KEEPS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN A CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT AS UPPER LOW
MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA...ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING
HIGH BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241810
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN ND AND
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
TWEAKED. WINDS REMAIN BRISK AND WILL UP WINDS A BIT. NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241810
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN ND AND
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
TWEAKED. WINDS REMAIN BRISK AND WILL UP WINDS A BIT. NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241810
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN ND AND
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
TWEAKED. WINDS REMAIN BRISK AND WILL UP WINDS A BIT. NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241810
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN ND AND
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
TWEAKED. WINDS REMAIN BRISK AND WILL UP WINDS A BIT. NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ADVECT IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL MOVE
IN...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING...SO WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE.
IF IFR CIGS DO ARRIVE...EXPECT IT TO BE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS FILLING IN MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER
OVER MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WAS MOVING EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FOR
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS WERE UP THIS MORNING SO
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THE MN SIDE AND
INCREASED TEMPS ON THE ND SIDE. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS ON THE ND
SIDE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 241153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE 850MB JET AND
AREA OF STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP/HRRR...AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE RADAR ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE LIKEWISE.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RAP/HRRR TIMING.
KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE 850MB JET REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOME CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...IF CIGS DO LOWER NOT SURE
HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL DO SO. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING IN THE LOWER CIGS...BUT IT IS THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA...WITH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER). AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIP WILL BE...WHERE IT WILL BE MOST
INTENSE...AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE HRRR/RAP FOR GUIDANCE
THROUGH 18Z FOR POPS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS...LEADING TO ALL LIQUID.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE DVL BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON
INTO TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MODELS DO INDICATE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH DECENT MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
EARLY WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE IN PART TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTERACTIONS TO THE EAST
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...WITH
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSITION/AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. MID-WEEK LOOKS DRIER OVERALL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WITH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT COULD STILL HAVE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
AFTER 6Z INTO SE ND...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WITH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT COULD STILL HAVE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
AFTER 6Z INTO SE ND...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WITH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT COULD STILL HAVE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
AFTER 6Z INTO SE ND...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WITH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT COULD STILL HAVE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
AFTER 6Z INTO SE ND...BUT WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 232354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN.
THERE IS A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRYING UP AS IT ENTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL REMOVE MOST POPS
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ON
THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LLJ INTO NE SD. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
0.90 IN THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWALTERS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE IN NORTHEAST SD...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST SHOWERS
AND NOT MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER LAYERED
SATURATION SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS NEAR KBJI
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIX
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN.
THERE IS A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRYING UP AS IT ENTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL REMOVE MOST POPS
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ON
THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LLJ INTO NE SD. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
0.90 IN THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWALTERS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE IN NORTHEAST SD...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST SHOWERS
AND NOT MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER LAYERED
SATURATION SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS NEAR KBJI
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIX
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 232354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN.
THERE IS A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRYING UP AS IT ENTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL REMOVE MOST POPS
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ON
THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LLJ INTO NE SD. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
0.90 IN THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWALTERS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE IN NORTHEAST SD...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST SHOWERS
AND NOT MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER LAYERED
SATURATION SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS NEAR KBJI
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIX
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 232354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN.
THERE IS A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRYING UP AS IT ENTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL REMOVE MOST POPS
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ON
THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LLJ INTO NE SD. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
0.90 IN THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWALTERS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE IN NORTHEAST SD...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST SHOWERS
AND NOT MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER LAYERED
SATURATION SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS NEAR KBJI
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIX
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
WERE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO
AROUND 6 TO 9 THOUSAND FT AND AROUND 5 THOUSAND FT BY 12Z FRI. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231757
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS WE CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPS WARMING BACK UP. WE SHOULD HIT THE 40S TO LOW 50S AS
PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO ERN ND. LIGHT WINDS.
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST INTO ERN ND THIS AFTN. WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND A LIGHT AND A TAD WARMER LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (925 MB ESPECIALLY) EXPECT A HIGHS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER-MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PAST DAYS AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
RED RIVER AT 18Z. MUCH WELCOME RELIEF.

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
WESTERN ALBERTA TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER IS GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND DECENT 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IT FORMS OVER SE ND 00Z-06Z FRI
PERIOD AND THEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
INTIALLY WILL BE LACKING...BUT DO EXPECT A GROWING AREA OF MID
LEVEL PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND GROW IN
COVERAGE 06Z-12Z FRI PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT EAST INTO WCNTRL MN. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT WARMER SFC-850 MB LAYER THAN PAST
RUNS WITH BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOSTLY LIQUID WITH ANY
PRECIP...WITH BEST CHC OF SOME MIX (IP/SN) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NW/WCNTRL MN (LAKE ITASCA-BEMIDJI
AREA INTO ERN BECKER-HUBBARD) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
USING THE TOP DOWN METHOD FOR PTYPE GIVES MOSTLY -RA FOR ERN ND
AND THE RRV WITH THAT MIX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WHERE A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN-NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAINI SOME LOW POPS FOR -RA IN MOSTLY WCNTRL MN THRU FRI
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS 850 MB LAYER
MOISTENS UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

DIMINISHED POPS FRI NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT BUT
REMAINING RATHER CLOUDY. TEMPS WARMER AT NIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPS TO
SOME DEGREE HEDGE ON IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURS. THAT
WOULD APPEAR PSBL ESP NE ND/NRN MN WHERE A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD
IN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION...BUT MODELS VARYING ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.
THUS...HAVE USED A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK
SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED...NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
WERE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO
AROUND 6 TO 9 THOUSAND FT AND AROUND 5 THOUSAND FT BY 12Z FRI. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231757
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN
CWA...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS WE CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPS WARMING BACK UP. WE SHOULD HIT THE 40S TO LOW 50S AS
PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO ERN ND. LIGHT WINDS.
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST INTO ERN ND THIS AFTN. WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND A LIGHT AND A TAD WARMER LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (925 MB ESPECIALLY) EXPECT A HIGHS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER-MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PAST DAYS AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
RED RIVER AT 18Z. MUCH WELCOME RELIEF.

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
WESTERN ALBERTA TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER IS GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND DECENT 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IT FORMS OVER SE ND 00Z-06Z FRI
PERIOD AND THEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
INTIALLY WILL BE LACKING...BUT DO EXPECT A GROWING AREA OF MID
LEVEL PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND GROW IN
COVERAGE 06Z-12Z FRI PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT EAST INTO WCNTRL MN. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT WARMER SFC-850 MB LAYER THAN PAST
RUNS WITH BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOSTLY LIQUID WITH ANY
PRECIP...WITH BEST CHC OF SOME MIX (IP/SN) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NW/WCNTRL MN (LAKE ITASCA-BEMIDJI
AREA INTO ERN BECKER-HUBBARD) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
USING THE TOP DOWN METHOD FOR PTYPE GIVES MOSTLY -RA FOR ERN ND
AND THE RRV WITH THAT MIX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WHERE A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN-NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAINI SOME LOW POPS FOR -RA IN MOSTLY WCNTRL MN THRU FRI
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS 850 MB LAYER
MOISTENS UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

DIMINISHED POPS FRI NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT BUT
REMAINING RATHER CLOUDY. TEMPS WARMER AT NIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPS TO
SOME DEGREE HEDGE ON IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURS. THAT
WOULD APPEAR PSBL ESP NE ND/NRN MN WHERE A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD
IN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION...BUT MODELS VARYING ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.
THUS...HAVE USED A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK
SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED...NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
WERE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO
AROUND 6 TO 9 THOUSAND FT AND AROUND 5 THOUSAND FT BY 12Z FRI. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES








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