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000
FXUS63 KFGF 291733
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN A LOT OF
PLACES. WITH LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE HIGHS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. WILL ALSO RAISE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE MORE TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 291457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOWERED CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS OVER THE FA. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOG LOOP INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND
FROM THE NORTH. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATED CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF ONTARIO EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH WAS CLEAR. VFR CIGS
AROUND 42 HUNDRED FT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND WERE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST VFR CIGS OVER ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 291200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOG LOOP INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND
FROM THE NORTH. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATED CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF ONTARIO EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH WAS CLEAR. VFR CIGS
AROUND 42 HUNDRED FT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND WERE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST VFR CIGS OVER ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 291200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOG LOOP INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND
FROM THE NORTH. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATED CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF ONTARIO EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH WAS CLEAR. VFR CIGS
AROUND 42 HUNDRED FT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND WERE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST VFR CIGS OVER ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290848
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BLAYER FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPS ARE COOLING A BIT FASTER AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
SO HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. ELSE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BLAYER FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPS ARE COOLING A BIT FASTER AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
SO HAVE ADJUSTED FRIDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. ELSE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BLAYER FLOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290307
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPS ARE NOW LOOKING TO COOL A BIT FASTER AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. ELSE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FA...WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
BLAYER WINDS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FAIR SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTHWEST MN AND EASTERN ND SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL MN
ATTM LOOKS TO BE DECREASING A BIT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MN FILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FA...WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
BLAYER WINDS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FAIR SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTHWEST MN AND EASTERN ND SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL MN
ATTM LOOKS TO BE DECREASING A BIT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MN FILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FA...WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
BLAYER WINDS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FAIR SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PLACES ARE
SEEING CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. NORTHEAST WINDS BECAME
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN. THESE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI MORNING BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY PCPN IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME SOUTH
OF THE FA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN IN
THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY... THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY PCPN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR NW
MN ON MONDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT TEMPS DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...12Z EC
STRONGER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR MID
WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS AND TREND DOWN TO AT OR JUST BLO NORMAL FOR WED AND
THURS...NORMAL ARE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME VARIABLE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281731
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SPRINKLES AROUND THE FARGO/MOORHEAD AREA HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FADED OUT NOW. THERE IS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DOWN NEAR KSTC
THAT IS ROTATING BACK TO THE WEST...BUT THINK THIS WILL STAY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME VARIABLE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ECHOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KJMS TO KFAR TO KPKD. HOWEVER SFC OBS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUDS
TO BE BETWEEN 6000 AND 10000FT WITH NO PCPN REPORTED. THEREFORE
THESE ECHOES ARE MAINLY VIRGA...BUT DID SEE THE WEB CAM AT ROTHSAY
SHOW THE ROADS A LITTLE WET. WILL REMOVE THE PCPN CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND JUST GO WITH SPRINKLES OF
RAIN...OR NON ACCUMULATING. OTHERWISE THE DAY STILL LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS AND A LITTLE LESS
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE BREEZES
5-15KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SMALL PATCH OF RETURNS VCNTY DTL-BWP-FAR HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC MENTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10/I94 CORRIDOR THIS AM. NO OVERALL CHANGES
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE BREEZES
5-15KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SMALL PATCH OF RETURNS VCNTY DTL-BWP-FAR HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC MENTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10/I94 CORRIDOR THIS AM. NO OVERALL CHANGES
TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE BREEZES
5-15KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN TO THE 8 TO 12 KT
RANGE FROM THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SO BUMPED
UP LOWS A DEGREE OR SO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW THAT RAIN HAS BEEN FINALLY FALLING OUT
OF THE STRONGER RADAR RETURNS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...AND AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE WHAT LITTLE THERE IS DISSIPATING BY MORNING CONTINUED
TO TAPER OFF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOP DOWN METHOD HAS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE BEFORE EVERYTHING ENDS...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLAKE OR TWO BUT THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE MUCH. TEMPS STILL
SEEM ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ONLY ONE WEB CAM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIP DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS WE HAVE GOING.
TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN TO THE 8 TO 12 KT
RANGE FROM THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280248
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW THAT RAIN HAS BEEN FINALLY FALLING OUT
OF THE STRONGER RADAR RETURNS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...AND AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE WHAT LITTLE THERE IS DISSIPATING BY MORNING CONTINUED
TO TAPER OFF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOP DOWN METHOD HAS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE BEFORE EVERYTHING ENDS...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLAKE OR TWO BUT THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE MUCH. TEMPS STILL
SEEM ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ONLY ONE WEB CAM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIP DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS WE HAVE GOING.
TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WITH BROKEN CIRRUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT KFAR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
GUSTS FROM THE EAST ABOVE 20 KTS. THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE BELOW 12 KTS BY MID
EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ONLY ONE WEB CAM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIP DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS WE HAVE GOING.
TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WITH BROKEN CIRRUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT KFAR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
GUSTS FROM THE EAST ABOVE 20 KTS. THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE BELOW 12 KTS BY MID
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ONLY ONE WEB CAM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIP DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS WE HAVE GOING.
TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WITH BROKEN CIRRUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT KFAR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
GUSTS FROM THE EAST ABOVE 20 KTS. THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE BELOW 12 KTS BY MID
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDS WITH NE WINDS THROUGHOUT NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CIGS MAY
IMPACT DVL AND FAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED
AT GFK/BJI/TVF. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ABERDEEN SD AREA. SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDS WITH NE WINDS THROUGHOUT NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CIGS MAY
IMPACT DVL AND FAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED
AT GFK/BJI/TVF. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ABERDEEN SD AREA. SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDS WITH NE WINDS THROUGHOUT NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CIGS MAY
IMPACT DVL AND FAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED
AT GFK/BJI/TVF. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR MORNING IS POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION
STILL SOUTH OF ABERDEEN. HI- RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP NOT REACHING
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 23Z TONIGHT. DRY EASTERLY
WINDS PLAYING A PART IN KEEPING THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA...AS
WELL AS PUSHING OVERCAST SKIES FARTHER SOUTHWEST. CHANGED THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD...SO MADE
NO CHANGES TO THOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON/BUTLAND
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271133
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270815
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES ARE VFR WITH KFAR THE LOWEST AROUND 4000 FT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. EAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX/CLOUDS...BUT THE CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO ADJUSTED LOWS CLOSER TO
THE SHORT BLEND AND RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RADAR LOOP SHOWS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL DELAY THE LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POP/WX BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED...WITH KGFK AND KBJI SHOWING
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RAIN IS STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KEPT
JUST A TINY BIT OF POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT THINK THAT
MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
COMING IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW
WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. MID DAY
UPPER STACK LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES AND SPINS OVER NE FOR
DURATION OF DAY...FINALLY MOVING INTO WRN IA BY 12Z THU.

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL GET. EXPECT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT
FROM NERN SD THROUGH SERN ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHARP CUTOFF BEING BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO...WITH FARGO
RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
MADE TODAY IS TOO FURTHER TIGHTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE GRADIENT AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...KEEPING FURTHEST POINT NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT...ALSO
EXPECT A SHARP CLOUD FREE LINE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HWY 2 CLEAR SKIES WED AND REMAINDER OF
AREA CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS NRN VALLEY AND NW MN TO RISE
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN VALLEY STRUGGLES TO GET INTO
THE 50S. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE A VERY
ACTIVE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN AS SOLAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THU AFTN.

THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ODDS FAVOR TOTALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A TAD BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES ARE VFR WITH KFAR THE LOWEST AROUND 4000 FT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. EAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...WJB/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX/CLOUDS...BUT THE CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO ADJUSTED LOWS CLOSER TO
THE SHORT BLEND AND RAISED READINGS A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RADAR LOOP SHOWS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL DELAY THE LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POP/WX BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED...WITH KGFK AND KBJI SHOWING
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RAIN IS STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KEPT
JUST A TINY BIT OF POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT THINK THAT
MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
COMING IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW
WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. MID DAY
UPPER STACK LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES AND SPINS OVER NE FOR
DURATION OF DAY...FINALLY MOVING INTO WRN IA BY 12Z THU.

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL GET. EXPECT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT
FROM NERN SD THROUGH SERN ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHARP CUTOFF BEING BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO...WITH FARGO
RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
MADE TODAY IS TOO FURTHER TIGHTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE GRADIENT AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...KEEPING FURTHEST POINT NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT...ALSO
EXPECT A SHARP CLOUD FREE LINE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HWY 2 CLEAR SKIES WED AND REMAINDER OF
AREA CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS NRN VALLEY AND NW MN TO RISE
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN VALLEY STRUGGLES TO GET INTO
THE 50S. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE A VERY
ACTIVE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN AS SOLAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THU AFTN.

THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ODDS FAVOR TOTALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A TAD BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES ARE VFR WITH KFAR THE LOWEST AROUND 4000 FT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. EAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...WJB/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RADAR LOOP SHOWS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL DELAY THE LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POP/WX BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED...WITH KGFK AND KBJI SHOWING
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RAIN IS STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KEPT
JUST A TINY BIT OF POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT THINK THAT
MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
COMING IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW
WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. MID DAY
UPPER STACK LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES AND SPINS OVER NE FOR
DURATION OF DAY...FINALLY MOVING INTO WRN IA BY 12Z THU.

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL GET. EXPECT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT
FROM NERN SD THROUGH SERN ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHARP CUTOFF BEING BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO...WITH FARGO
RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
MADE TODAY IS TOO FURTHER TIGHTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE GRADIENT AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...KEEPING FURTHEST POINT NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT...ALSO
EXPECT A SHARP CLOUD FREE LINE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HWY 2 CLEAR SKIES WED AND REMAINDER OF
AREA CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS NRN VALLEY AND NW MN TO RISE
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN VALLEY STRUGGLES TO GET INTO
THE 50S. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE A VERY
ACTIVE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN AS SOLAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THU AFTN.

THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ODDS FAVOR TOTALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A TAD BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES HAVE GONE VFR WITH KFAR SEEING THE DECK LIFT UP TO 3300
FT. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
MOST TAF SITES SEEING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...GREATEST COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN
12 KTS...BUT THEY WILL PICK UP BY MID DAY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...WJB/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 262340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POP/WX BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED...WITH KGFK AND KBJI SHOWING
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RAIN IS STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KEPT
JUST A TINY BIT OF POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT THINK THAT
MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
COMING IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW
WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. MID DAY
UPPER STACK LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES AND SPINS OVER NE FOR
DURATION OF DAY...FINALLY MOVING INTO WRN IA BY 12Z THU.

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL GET. EXPECT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT
FROM NERN SD THROUGH SERN ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHARP CUTOFF BEING BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO...WITH FARGO
RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
MADE TODAY IS TOO FURTHER TIGHTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE GRADIENT AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...KEEPING FURTHEST POINT NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT...ALSO
EXPECT A SHARP CLOUD FREE LINE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HWY 2 CLEAR SKIES WED AND REMAINDER OF
AREA CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS NRN VALLEY AND NW MN TO RISE
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN VALLEY STRUGGLES TO GET INTO
THE 50S. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE A VERY
ACTIVE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN AS SOLAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THU AFTN.

THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ODDS FAVOR TOTALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A TAD BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES HAVE GONE VFR WITH KFAR SEEING THE DECK LIFT UP TO 3300
FT. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
MOST TAF SITES SEEING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...GREATEST COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN
12 KTS...BUT THEY WILL PICK UP BY MID DAY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...WJB/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR





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