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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM  CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE NOT
AS CELLULAR...AND MAY NOT DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE 40S.

RETURN FLOW COMMENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK. THIS FORECASTED TRACK WOULD BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). LIMITED
POPS TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 PERCENT SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY
BE PROPAGATING INTO AN UPPER RIDGE/DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL
MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS FOR THU THROUGH SAT. SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY
BY SUNDAY BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
RED RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AT OR UNDER 10KT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE LOW
IN POTENTIAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM  CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE NOT
AS CELLULAR...AND MAY NOT DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE 40S.

RETURN FLOW COMMENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK. THIS FORECASTED TRACK WOULD BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). LIMITED
POPS TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 PERCENT SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY
BE PROPAGATING INTO AN UPPER RIDGE/DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL
MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS FOR THU THROUGH SAT. SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY
BY SUNDAY BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
RED RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AT OR UNDER 10KT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE LOW
IN POTENTIAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 212008
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE NOT
AS CELLULAR...AND MAY NOT DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE 40S.

RETURN FLOW COMMENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK. THIS FORECASTED TRACK WOULD BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). LIMITED
POPS TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 PERCENT SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY
BE PROPAGATING INTO AN UPPER RIDGE/DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL
MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS FOR THU THROUGH SAT. SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY
BY SUNDAY BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
RED RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOOKING FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...THINNING OUT FIRST AT
KDVL. KGFK/KFAR SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH KBJI/KTVF
LIKELY TAKING LONGER. NORTH-NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211725
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
HIGHER 925MB-850MB MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALSO LED TO
DECREASING MAX TEMPS A BIT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP CU BY LATE MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED AND THEN EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST (AS RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE WEST).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOOKING FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...THINNING OUT FIRST AT
KDVL. KGFK/KFAR SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH KBJI/KTVF
LIKELY TAKING LONGER. NORTH-NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 211447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
HIGHER 925MB-850MB MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALSO LED TO
DECREASING MAX TEMPS A BIT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP CU BY LATE MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED AND THEN EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST (AS RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE WEST).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED WESTERN EDGE OF IFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO
TO FFM AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER FOG
LOOP ALSO SHOWED CLOUDS WERE SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WILL ADD
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS AT GFK AND FAR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO
KEEP LOW CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE SCT-BKN CIGS
AS ONE GOES FARTHER WEST OF THE RED RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 211447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
HIGHER 925MB-850MB MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALSO LED TO
DECREASING MAX TEMPS A BIT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP CU BY LATE MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED AND THEN EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST (AS RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE WEST).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED WESTERN EDGE OF IFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO
TO FFM AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER FOG
LOOP ALSO SHOWED CLOUDS WERE SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WILL ADD
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS AT GFK AND FAR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO
KEEP LOW CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE SCT-BKN CIGS
AS ONE GOES FARTHER WEST OF THE RED RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED WESTERN EDGE OF IFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO
TO FFM AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER FOG
LOOP ALSO SHOWED CLOUDS WERE SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WILL ADD
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS AT GFK AND FAR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO
KEEP LOW CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE SCT-BKN CIGS
AS ONE GOES FARTHER WEST OF THE RED RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED WESTERN EDGE OF IFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO
TO FFM AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER FOG
LOOP ALSO SHOWED CLOUDS WERE SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WILL ADD
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS AT GFK AND FAR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO
KEEP LOW CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE SCT-BKN CIGS
AS ONE GOES FARTHER WEST OF THE RED RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 210901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 210901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. CLEAR SPOTS
IN THE NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 50 SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEFORE SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA FURTHER
WEST THAN EXPECTED...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BY
MORNING SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SO JUST KEPT
LOW POPS GOING FOR -RW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. CLEAR SPOTS
IN THE NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 50 SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEFORE SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA FURTHER
WEST THAN EXPECTED...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BY
MORNING SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SO JUST KEPT
LOW POPS GOING FOR -RW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA FURTHER
WEST THAN EXPECTED...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BY
MORNING SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SO JUST KEPT
LOW POPS GOING FOR -RW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBJI AND KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY PRECIP AS THE TAF
PERIOD STARTS BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SREF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOWER CIGS
MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT.
ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA FURTHER
WEST THAN EXPECTED...SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. STILL THINK WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BY
MORNING SO CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS SO JUST KEPT
LOW POPS GOING FOR -RW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBJI AND KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY PRECIP AS THE TAF
PERIOD STARTS BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SREF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOWER CIGS
MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT.
ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR









000
FXUS63 KFGF 202347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBJI AND KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY PRECIP AS THE TAF
PERIOD STARTS BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SREF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOWER CIGS
MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT.
ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBJI AND KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY PRECIP AS THE TAF
PERIOD STARTS BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SREF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOWER CIGS
MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT.
ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING MOST TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BECOMING
WEAKER NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING MOST TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BECOMING
WEAKER NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STILL MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM PEMBINA TO
KGFK TO NEAR VALLEY CITY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE EAST
OF THAT LINE. CLOUDS AND FOG LIMITED TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST MN TOO
SO THINK THAT BEST BET FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY. GOT A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM SPC IN THE PAST 10
MINUTES DISCUSSING THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. LIKE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE MAIN THREAT FOR OUR AREA MAY BE WIND. AS THE BAND OF
RAIN GOT INTO THE KGFK AREA HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING MOST TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BECOMING
WEAKER NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STILL MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM PEMBINA TO
KGFK TO NEAR VALLEY CITY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE EAST
OF THAT LINE. CLOUDS AND FOG LIMITED TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST MN TOO
SO THINK THAT BEST BET FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY. GOT A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM SPC IN THE PAST 10
MINUTES DISCUSSING THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. LIKE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE MAIN THREAT FOR OUR AREA MAY BE WIND. AS THE BAND OF
RAIN GOT INTO THE KGFK AREA HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING MOST TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BECOMING
WEAKER NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201459
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TRYING THE FIGURE OUT TIMING AND AREA OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWER/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC DAY1
SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...NOW CATCHING
ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN FA TOO. THIS FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT SEEMS TO MAKE
SENSE AS CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH HEATING OVER NORTHEAST
ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. THE MOST MORNING SUN WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS ALSO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
LONG DURATION EVENT...IT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY.
RIGHT NOW THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AND NW FA. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
ND WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD
WHICH DOES FIT THE ABOVE THINKING. PRIMARY THREAT MAY REMAIN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH HEATING DOES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE ECHOES OVER OUR
WESTERN FA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 18Z...WHICH DOES NOT
GIVE MUCH TIME FOR HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TYPICAL EARLY MORNING AREA OF LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF FOG IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT REPLACE BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME BEST RISK OF TSTMS
AT TAF SITES....MOSTLY VERY LATE MORNING IN DVL AND EARLY AFTN IN
GFK AND MID AFTN TVF-FAR AND LATE AFTN BJI. WINDS MAIN ISSUE WITH
THESE STORMS AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND TURNS NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY
HIGH GUSTS FOR A TIME WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201459
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TRYING THE FIGURE OUT TIMING AND AREA OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWER/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC DAY1
SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...NOW CATCHING
ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN FA TOO. THIS FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT SEEMS TO MAKE
SENSE AS CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH HEATING OVER NORTHEAST
ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. THE MOST MORNING SUN WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS ALSO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
LONG DURATION EVENT...IT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY.
RIGHT NOW THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AND NW FA. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
ND WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD
WHICH DOES FIT THE ABOVE THINKING. PRIMARY THREAT MAY REMAIN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH HEATING DOES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE ECHOES OVER OUR
WESTERN FA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 18Z...WHICH DOES NOT
GIVE MUCH TIME FOR HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TYPICAL EARLY MORNING AREA OF LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF FOG IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT REPLACE BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME BEST RISK OF TSTMS
AT TAF SITES....MOSTLY VERY LATE MORNING IN DVL AND EARLY AFTN IN
GFK AND MID AFTN TVF-FAR AND LATE AFTN BJI. WINDS MAIN ISSUE WITH
THESE STORMS AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND TURNS NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY
HIGH GUSTS FOR A TIME WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201210
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS TIMING OF PRECIP SEEMS GOOD BASED ON
LATEST RAP AND 06Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMTERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TYPICAL EARLY MORNING AREA OF LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF FOG IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT REPLACE BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME BEST RISK OF TSTMS
AT TAF SITES....MOSTLY VERY LATE MORNING IN DVL AND EARLY AFTN IN
GFK AND MID AFTN TVF-FAR AND LATE AFTN BJI. WINDS MAIN ISSUE WITH
THESE STORMS AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND TURNS NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY
HIGH GUSTS FOR A TIME WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201210
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS TIMING OF PRECIP SEEMS GOOD BASED ON
LATEST RAP AND 06Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMTERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TYPICAL EARLY MORNING AREA OF LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH
PATCHES OF FOG IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT REPLACE BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM UPPER WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME BEST RISK OF TSTMS
AT TAF SITES....MOSTLY VERY LATE MORNING IN DVL AND EARLY AFTN IN
GFK AND MID AFTN TVF-FAR AND LATE AFTN BJI. WINDS MAIN ISSUE WITH
THESE STORMS AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND TURNS NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY
HIGH GUSTS FOR A TIME WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMTERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW MN WHICH HIGH RES MESO
SCALE MODEL PICKING UP ON. CONFINED LOWER CIGS TO TVF AND BJI
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTWARD EXPANSION. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT IN SAME AREAS WHICH ALSO RECEIVED
RAIN FALL ACROSS NW MN. REMAINDER SHOULD BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/TSRA SPREADING FROM NW-SE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMTERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW MN WHICH HIGH RES MESO
SCALE MODEL PICKING UP ON. CONFINED LOWER CIGS TO TVF AND BJI
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTWARD EXPANSION. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT IN SAME AREAS WHICH ALSO RECEIVED
RAIN FALL ACROSS NW MN. REMAINDER SHOULD BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/TSRA SPREADING FROM NW-SE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NE. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENINGS SEVERE STORMS PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST. PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE FA MAINLY SKC OR CI ALONG AND WEST OF
BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY CONFINING POPS
TO THE NE FA. REMAINDER SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW MN WHICH HIGH RES MESO
SCALE MODEL PICKING UP ON. CONFINED LOWER CIGS TO TVF AND BJI
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTWARD EXPANSION. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT IN SAME AREAS WHICH ALSO RECEIVED
RAIN FALL ACROSS NW MN. REMAINDER SHOULD BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/TSRA SPREADING FROM NW-SE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200250
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENINGS SEVERE STORMS PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST. PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE FA MAINLY SKC OR CI ALONG AND WEST OF
BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY CONFINING POPS
TO THE NE FA. REMAINDER SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIND SWITCHING TO THE NW FROM NW-SE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200250
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENINGS SEVERE STORMS PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST. PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE FA MAINLY SKC OR CI ALONG AND WEST OF
BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY CONFINING POPS
TO THE NE FA. REMAINDER SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIND SWITCHING TO THE NW FROM NW-SE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIND SWITCHING TO THE NW FROM NW-SE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIND SWITCHING TO THE NW FROM NW-SE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIT KFAR/KTVF/KBJI. THINK KFAR/KTVF SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WHILE KBJI MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER. AFTER THESE GO
THINK ONLY SOME MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. LAST THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE WIND SWITCH. SOUTH-SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
TO THE WEST-SW AND THEN FINALLY WEST TO NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME AT KDVL/KGFK WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OR ACROSS OUR MN FA RIGHT NOW. NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BY SAT
MORNING SO WILL ONLY MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON










000
FXUS63 KFGF 192013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIT KFAR/KTVF/KBJI. THINK KFAR/KTVF SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WHILE KBJI MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER. AFTER THESE GO
THINK ONLY SOME MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. LAST THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE WIND SWITCH. SOUTH-SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
TO THE WEST-SW AND THEN FINALLY WEST TO NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME AT KDVL/KGFK WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OR ACROSS OUR MN FA RIGHT NOW. NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BY SAT
MORNING SO WILL ONLY MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON









000
FXUS63 KFGF 191747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING MAINLY
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN SOME
CLEARING BUT THE REST OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MANY SITES ARE STILL IN THE 60S. MOST OF
THE CURRENT PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WE COULD
GET SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WEB CAMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME
RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE GROUND AND RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INTENSIFYING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCATTERED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER THAN WE ORIGINALLY HAD
IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. KEPT POPS MOSTLY
SCATTERED EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IN THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIT KFAR/KTVF/KBJI. THINK KFAR/KTVF SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WHILE KBJI MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER. AFTER THESE GO
THINK ONLY SOME MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. LAST THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE WIND SWITCH. SOUTH-SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
TO THE WEST-SW AND THEN FINALLY WEST TO NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME AT KDVL/KGFK WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OR ACROSS OUR MN FA RIGHT NOW. NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BY SAT
MORNING SO WILL ONLY MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WEB CAMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME
RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE GROUND AND RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INTENSIFYING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCATTERED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER THAN WE ORIGINALLY HAD
IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. KEPT POPS MOSTLY
SCATTERED EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IN THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER
EASTERN SD. CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THROUGH 10 AM. THE MVFR/IFR DECK SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE ND SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE MN SIDE THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER
EASTERN SD. CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THROUGH 10 AM. THE MVFR/IFR DECK SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE ND SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE MN SIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 191203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER
EASTERN SD. CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THROUGH 10 AM. THE MVFR/IFR DECK SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE ND SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE MN SIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE/SE SD LIFTING NORTH SO MAINTAINED
MENTION OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SPOTTY SHRA MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MORE UPSTREAM PCPN BUT PRETTY FAR
WEST. LIMITED SHRA MENTION TO FAR/GFK WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ELSEWHERE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

DELAYED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO
CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK ECHOES IN CENTRAL ND
HEADING THIS WAY. SO FAR NOT IMPRESSED AS NOT SURE ANYTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING AS MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME EXPANSION IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. CURRENTLY SOME WEAK
ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. SOME ISOLD LTG STRIKES EARLIER
BUT CONVECTION HAS OUT RUN WHAT INSTABILITY THERE WAS. HAVE ISOLD
SPRINKLE MENTION INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE POPS PLACEMENT WITH ACTIVE
PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS HANDLING GENERAL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WELL WITH THE NORMAL SPREAD IN CONVECTIVE QPFS
GENERATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMER BLYR TEMPS TO THE AREA.
WITH WAA AND MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION MIXING WILL
OFFSET SUNDOWN AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO STAY UP. LATER TONIGHT...
AROUND 9Z...HRRR/RAP/HOP-WRF ENSEMBLE BRING IN SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHRA AND
THUNDER.

BY FRIDAY 1.5 INCH PWATS WITH A SFC TROUGH AND WESTERLY WINDS
NOSE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA. THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW TO INITIATE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW WHERE MODELS AGREEMENT IS DEPICTING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ESCORTED ON THE NOSE OF 300MB JET
SATURDAY. COLD CORE ALOFT WITH -20C ADVECTING IN AT 500MB WILL
BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE CURRENT
TIMING BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NW MN. WIND POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE
IS A CONCERN ACROSS E ND AND RRV AS 30 TO 35 KTS OF NW WIND MAY
MIX TO NEAR 800MB.

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST DRY FLOW INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD PLACE RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA
TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ENTERS THE PICTURE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGHINESS IN THE GFS AND MORE OF A CLOSED LOW FOR
THE ECMWF. EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS INTRODUCES LOW POPS TO THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE/SE SD LIFTING NORTH SO MAINTAINED
MENTION OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SPOTTY SHRA MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MORE UPSTREAM PCPN BUT PRETTY FAR
WEST. LIMITED SHRA MENTION TO FAR/GFK WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

DELAYED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO
CURRENT THINKING/FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK ECHOES IN CENTRAL ND
HEADING THIS WAY. SO FAR NOT IMPRESSED AS NOT SURE ANYTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING AS MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME EXPANSION IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. CURRENTLY SOME WEAK
ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. SOME ISOLD LTG STRIKES EARLIER
BUT CONVECTION HAS OUT RUN WHAT INSTABILITY THERE WAS. HAVE ISOLD
SPRINKLE MENTION INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE POPS PLACEMENT WITH ACTIVE
PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS HANDLING GENERAL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WELL WITH THE NORMAL SPREAD IN CONVECTIVE QPFS
GENERATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMER BLYR TEMPS TO THE AREA.
WITH WAA AND MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION MIXING WILL
OFFSET SUNDOWN AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO STAY UP. LATER TONIGHT...
AROUND 9Z...HRRR/RAP/HOP-WRF ENSEMBLE BRING IN SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHRA AND
THUNDER.

BY FRIDAY 1.5 INCH PWATS WITH A SFC TROUGH AND WESTERLY WINDS
NOSE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA. THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW TO INITIATE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW WHERE MODELS AGREEMENT IS DEPICTING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ESCORTED ON THE NOSE OF 300MB JET
SATURDAY. COLD CORE ALOFT WITH -20C ADVECTING IN AT 500MB WILL
BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE CURRENT
TIMING BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NW MN. WIND POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE
IS A CONCERN ACROSS E ND AND RRV AS 30 TO 35 KTS OF NW WIND MAY
MIX TO NEAR 800MB.

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST DRY FLOW INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD PLACE RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA
TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ENTERS THE PICTURE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGHINESS IN THE GFS AND MORE OF A CLOSED LOW FOR
THE ECMWF. EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS INTRODUCES LOW POPS TO THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE/SE SD LIFTING NORTH SO MAINTAINED
MENTION OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SPOTTY SHRA MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MORE UPSTREAM PCPN BUT PRETTY FAR
WEST. LIMITED SHRA MENTION TO FAR/GFK WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190239
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME WEAK ECHOES IN CENTRAL ND
HEADING THIS WAY. SO FAR NOT IMPRESSED AS NOT SURE ANYTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING AS MESOSCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME EXPANSION IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. CURRENTLY SOME WEAK
ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. SOME ISOLD LTG STRIKES EARLIER
BUT CONVECTION HAS OUT RUN WHAT INSTABILITY THERE WAS. HAVE ISOLD
SPRINKLE MENTION INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE POPS PLACEMENT WITH ACTIVE
PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS HANDLING GENERAL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WELL WITH THE NORMAL SPREAD IN CONVECTIVE QPFS
GENERATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMER BLYR TEMPS TO THE AREA.
WITH WAA AND MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION MIXING WILL
OFFSET SUNDOWN AND ALLOW SFC WINDS TO STAY UP. LATER TONIGHT...
AROUND 9Z...HRRR/RAP/HOP-WRF ENSEMBLE BRING IN SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHRA AND
THUNDER.

BY FRIDAY 1.5 INCH PWATS WITH A SFC TROUGH AND WESTERLY WINDS
NOSE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA. THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW TO INITIATE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW WHERE MODELS AGREEMENT IS DEPICTING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ESCORTED ON THE NOSE OF 300MB JET
SATURDAY. COLD CORE ALOFT WITH -20C ADVECTING IN AT 500MB WILL
BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE CURRENT
TIMING BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NW MN. WIND POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE
IS A CONCERN ACROSS E ND AND RRV AS 30 TO 35 KTS OF NW WIND MAY
MIX TO NEAR 800MB.

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST DRY FLOW INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD PLACE RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA
TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ENTERS THE PICTURE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGHINESS IN THE GFS AND MORE OF A CLOSED LOW FOR
THE ECMWF. EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS INTRODUCES LOW POPS TO THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

KEPT CIGS/VSBY VFR OVERNIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
MVFR PSBL IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE THE AM AND
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH CIGS IN LATE PERIODS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







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