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000
FXUS63 KFGF 021202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASK AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO GFK AROUND 00Z. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND APPEAR TO BE MOVING EAST.
ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FOG
LOOP INDICATED THE FOG WAS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 021202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASK AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO GFK AROUND 00Z. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND APPEAR TO BE MOVING EAST.
ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FOG
LOOP INDICATED THE FOG WAS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING NOW EXPECT TO START THU OFF WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUN. MORNING HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SCT-BKN CUMULUS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL BY MID AFTERNOON AND KGFK/KFAR BY AROUND
00Z FRI. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WEST TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 020908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING NOW EXPECT TO START THU OFF WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUN. MORNING HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SCT-BKN CUMULUS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL BY MID AFTERNOON AND KGFK/KFAR BY AROUND
00Z FRI. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WEST TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS ARE DECREASING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE EAST AS WELL
LATE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
BUT NOT TOO MUCH. REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING NOW EXPECT TO START THU OFF WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUN. MORNING HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SCT-BKN CUMULUS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL BY MID AFTERNOON AND KGFK/KFAR BY AROUND
00Z FRI. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WEST TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 020433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS ARE DECREASING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE EAST AS WELL
LATE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
BUT NOT TOO MUCH. REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING NOW EXPECT TO START THU OFF WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUN. MORNING HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SCT-BKN CUMULUS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL BY MID AFTERNOON AND KGFK/KFAR BY AROUND
00Z FRI. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WEST TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 020232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 020232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 012330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS STARTING TO DIE DOWN FINALLY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THU. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK BACK INTO EASTERN
MT. THERE ARE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE STRATIFORM. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME WITH THE
IDEA THAT ANY CLEARING OR DECREASE WILL BE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY
THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011801
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011801
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FLUCTUATE THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING INTO VFR
CIGS FOR BRIEF PDS BEFORE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MB PULLS NORTH AND
SHOULD TAKE MOST CLOUDS WITH IT. SOME CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN THE
WEST BY LATE EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY RATHER
QUICKLY...WORKING THE CLEAR SKIES INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN BY
MIDNIGHT. BJI WILL CONTINUE AN IFR TREND THROUGH MID AFTN THEN BEGIN
TO BREAK UP ALTHOUGH A BIT LATER THAN SITES TO THE WEST. ALSO EXPECT
BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RRV. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT ABT 02Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH
ABOUT 30KT TO MIX FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN THE EAST INTO NW
MN...AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT INTO THE ROX AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. FOR THOSE
SITES STILL WITH MVFR CIGS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE VFR CIGS AT SOME POINT
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 010900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SFC-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SFC BOUNDARY (WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST) WILL
INTERACT WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN FA BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION. A SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES WAVE WILL ACT TO
BLOCK THE CANADIAN WAVE...THUS SLOWING IT DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS HAVE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/SREF
SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB LOW. THE STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING IN COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SNOW. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER
END OF QPF AND WIND SPEEDS...AND ONLY INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...IF THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS DO VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SORT OF WINTER
HEADLINES...SO THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
IT DOES LOOK WINDY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.

MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER HUDSON BAY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FAST
FLOW ALOFT EXPECT TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD ECMWF.  WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY LOWERED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR SAT,
SUN, AND MON. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS IN DVL BASIN INTO CNTRL ND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE...WHILE MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN THE RRV INTO NW MN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SOME CIGS MAY LOWER IN THE
RRV OVERNIGHT AND ESP TOWARD 12Z AS A BIT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGS BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GUSTY AT TIMES STILL TONIGHT THEN TURNING A
BIT MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY STILL GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS IN DVL BASIN INTO CNTRL ND JUST EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE...WHILE MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN THE RRV INTO NW MN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SOME CIGS MAY LOWER IN THE
RRV OVERNIGHT AND ESP TOWARD 12Z AS A BIT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGS BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GUSTY AT TIMES STILL TONIGHT THEN TURNING A
BIT MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY STILL GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 301533
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CIGS WITH IFR AS OF 15Z AT BJI AND DVL...MVFR AT GFK AND TVF.
HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH A BKN 5500FT DECK AT FAR. EXPECTING THE MVFR
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCT OUT PER RAP/HRRR SOLNS LATE MORNING WITH
BJI ALSO IMPROVING ALBEIT SLOWER. DVL EXPECTED TO SEE IFR LIFTING TO
MVFR MID DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRESHENED UP FORECAST FOR WINDS AND CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ND SIDE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ERODING ON THE MN
SIDE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MAY NEED TO MODIFY PRECIP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR DIRECTION ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MORE UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AS IT APPEARS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STAYING UP
TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD
TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL REGION BUT
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THE FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS
ALONG A GRAND RAPIDS TO ALEXANDRIA LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FA. THIS FINGER MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. NOT
LOOKING LIKE ANY AREA WILL STAY TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD
TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL REGION BUT
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THE FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS
ALONG A GRAND RAPIDS TO ALEXANDRIA LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FA. THIS FINGER MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. NOT
LOOKING LIKE ANY AREA WILL STAY TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291501
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY
TODAY...AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR. USED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291501
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY
TODAY...AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR. USED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG








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