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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO CHANGES. AS EXPECTED CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW AROUND 30 NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S. IF DECOUPLING OCCURS EARLY...SOME AREAS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S LOCALLY...BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 32.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS...AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE COOLER AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND
DRY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THOUGH WITH PWATS RISING TO JUST OVER 0.70. THERE WILL BE
SHOWALTERS APPROACHING ZERO...SO SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER ATTM WITH COVERAGE VERY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND AS SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 50 IN THE FAR NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...EVEN
MIXING WITH A FLAKE OR 2.

FOR TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM COOL READINGS ON MONDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY ACTIVE
OVERALL. THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS FORM KIND OF A HYBRID SFC LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SLOWLY TRACK IT EASTWARD THRU ABOUT FRI.
NOT A VERY FAST MOVER WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT ALL MODELS SEEM TO SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. DETAILS WOULD BE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS
COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
AFTER STARTING OUT WED/THU NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TAKE A DOWNWARD SWING
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER EASTER SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY AT SUNRISE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 KTS
MIDDAY AND 10-20 KTS IN THE AFTN. SOME CIRRUS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
EVE INTO ERN ND AHD OF FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN DVL NR 03Z
AND GFK AREA 06Z MON WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. CU IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BREAKING UP AND
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKY CURRENT
LOWS LOOKING GOOD WITH AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S. IF DECOUPLING OCCURS EARLY...SOME AREAS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S LOCALLY...BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 32.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS...AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE COOLER AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND
DRY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THOUGH WITH PWATS RISING TO JUST OVER 0.70. THERE WILL BE
SHOWALTERS APPROACHING ZERO...SO SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER ATTM WITH COVERAGE VERY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND AS SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 50 IN THE FAR NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...EVEN
MIXING WITH A FLAKE OR 2.

FOR TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM COOL READINGS ON MONDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY ACTIVE
OVERALL. THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS FORM KIND OF A HYBRID SFC LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SLOWLY TRACK IT EASTWARD THRU ABOUT FRI.
NOT A VERY FAST MOVER WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT ALL MODELS SEEM TO SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. DETAILS WOULD BE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS
COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
AFTER STARTING OUT WED/THU NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TAKE A DOWNWARD SWING
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AT SUNSET LEAVING A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE A BIT SUN AFTN TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT THRU 18Z SUN THETN SOME CIRRUS INCREASE SUN
AFTN. THICKER CLOUDS AND RISK OF SHOWERS ARRIVE AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192008
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S. IF DECOUPLING OCCURS EARLY...SOME AREAS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S LOCALLY...BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 32.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS...AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE COOLER AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND
DRY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THOUGH WITH PWATS RISING TO JUST OVER 0.70. THERE WILL BE
SHOWALTERS APPROACHING ZERO...SO SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER ATTM WITH COVERAGE VERY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND AS SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 50 IN THE FAR NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...EVEN
MIXING WITH A FLAKE OR 2.

FOR TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM COOL READINGS ON MONDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY ACTIVE
OVERALL. THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS FORM KIND OF A HYBRID SFC LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SLOWLY TRACK IT EASTWARD THRU ABOUT FRI.
NOT A VERY FAST MOVER WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT ALL MODELS SEEM TO SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. DETAILS WOULD BE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS
COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
AFTER STARTING OUT WED/THU NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TAKE A DOWNWARD SWING
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN FINALLY
BEGIN TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BY MID
EVENING. SEEING SOME CUMULUS FORMATION WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE CUMULUS SHOULD ALSO FADE
QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING GIVING WAY TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...VG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191734
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH
AND WINDS. A BAND OF CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE DVL BASIN...AND
WILL TWEAK SKY COVER UP A BIT HERE TO THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO WON/T GET TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE
WIND ADVISORY WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY...BUT MONITOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN NEAR TERM WIND...PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH PCPN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND/PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS CONTINUE TO REV THROUGH THE VALLEY HOWEVER
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT SLATED
TIME. OTHERWISE APPROACHING DRY WEDGE WILL LIMIT ANY AM PCPN TO
AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXED
LAYER TO AROUND 800MB AND 30KTS THROUGH LAYER. AT THIS POINT FEEL
IT WILL BE WINDY HOWEVER BLO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COLUMN DOES COOL
TODAY HOWEVER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SOLAR AND WARM START SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON PCPN POT ENTAIL ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMERICAN
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WHILE GEM/ECMWF PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT ALTER POPS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AM OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY UNDER 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING 500MB
CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAY WITH PCPN AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN FINALLY
BEGIN TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BY MID
EVENING. SEEING SOME CUMULUS FORMATION WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE CUMULUS SHOULD ALSO FADE
QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING GIVING WAY TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FA...SO WILL REMOVE ANY
PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING NICELY INTO THE 50S AND
60S. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH EVERYTHING HANDLED WELL THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN NEAR TERM WIND...PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH PCPN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND/PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS CONTINUE TO REV THROUGH THE VALLEY HOWEVER
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT SLATED
TIME. OTHERWISE APPROACHING DRY WEDGE WILL LIMIT ANY AM PCPN TO
AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXED
LAYER TO AROUND 800MB AND 30KTS THROUGH LAYER. AT THIS POINT FEEL
IT WILL BE WINDY HOWEVER BLO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COLUMN DOES COOL
TODAY HOWEVER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SOLAR AND WARM START SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON PCPN POT ENTAIL ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMERICAN
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WHILE GEM/ECMWF PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT ALTER POPS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AM OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY UNDER 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING 500MB
CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAY WITH PCPN AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CONFINED TO SE 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FA
BY LATE MORNING. ALL CIGS VFR AND CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST. SE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN PUSHING EAST FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN NEAR TERM WIND...PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH PCPN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND/PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS CONTINUE TO REV THROUGH THE VALLEY HOWEVER
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT SLATED
TIME. OTHERWISE APPROACHING DRY WEDGE WILL LIMIT ANY AM PCPN TO
AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXED
LAYER TO AROUND 800MB AND 30KTS THROUGH LAYER. AT THIS POINT FEEL
IT WILL BE WINDY HOWEVER BLO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COLUMN DOES COOL
TODAY HOWEVER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SOLAR AND WARM START SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON PCPN POT ENTAIL ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMERICAN
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WHILE GEM/ECMWF PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT ALTER POPS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AM OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY UNDER 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING 500MB
CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAY WITH PCPN AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CONFINED TO SE 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FA
BY LATE MORNING. ALL CIGS VFR AND CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST. SE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190829
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN NEAR TERM WIND...PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH PCPN POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND/PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS CONTINUE TO REV THROUGH THE VALLEY HOWEVER
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT SLATED
TIME. OTHERWISE APPROACHING DRY WEDGE WILL LIMIT ANY AM PCPN TO
AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXED
LAYER TO AROUND 800MB AND 30KTS THROUGH LAYER. AT THIS POINT FEEL
IT WILL BE WINDY HOWEVER BLO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. COLUMN DOES COOL
TODAY HOWEVER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SOLAR AND WARM START SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ALL
DIFFER ON PCPN POT ENTAIL ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMERICAN
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WHILE GEM/ECMWF PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT ALTER POPS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AM OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT
STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY UNDER 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING 500MB
CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAY WITH PCPN AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WRAPS ENOUGH COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA AT ALL SITES. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT CHANCES FOR THIS ARE VERY LOW.
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>004-
     007-029-030-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 190431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WILL BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. INTO THE VALLEY AREA...WINDS ARE
FINALLY INCREASING AND ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AN AREA OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
SHOULD RECEIVE RAINFALL (MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA)...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. INTO THE NE FA
(LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA)...MIXED P-TYPES STILL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 50F...AND
ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASK WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN LOW. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND BUT SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
NO PRECIP YET HITTING THE GROUND AS DRY SUB 925 MB AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...AN AREA OF 30-40 KT
SFC WINDS THIS AFTN WHEATON MN UP THROUGH JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY
THROUGH DVL BASIN-MINOT. AS THE 925 MB WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THE HIGHEST WINDS (50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED IN THE RRV THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY
AS WIND ADV MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUED PAST 00Z IN SOME AREAS AND
ALSO AS HIGHER 925 MB WINDS MOVE INTO THE NRN VALLEY. BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THIS MAY KEEP A LID
ON WIND SPEEDS JUST ENOUGH. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OR DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGH POPS ESP 03Z-06Z NE ND AND INTO NW MN
06Z-12Z. FOR PTYPE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
FCST AREA. QUESTION ARISES ON IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. ALL MODELS KEEP A TIGHT 925 MB TEMP
GRADIENT ALONG THE STEINBACH-WARROAD-BAUDETTE-GRAND RAPIDS MN
LINE. MOST MODEL PROG SFC TEMPS FROM RAP/HRRR HAS TEMPS AT 32-33
IN BAUDETTE AT 09Z. SO GOING TO BE CLOSE CALL. USING TOP DOWN
PTYPE THERE WILL BE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO START MAYBE FREEZING PRECIP
AT FLAG ISLAND-OAK ISLAND IN FAR NRN LOW COUNTY. IT WOULD GO TO
RAIN BY 12Z. JUST HOW LONG WINTRY PCPN WILL BE AND SFC TEMPS IS
KEY AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM AS IF ANY
SNOW/SLEET FALLS AT 33 DEGREES IT WOULDNT CAUSE BIG ISSUES.

SPC HAD SE ND/WCNTRL MN IN 10 PCT THUNDER AREA 04Z-10Z. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE NOT GREAT AT 850
MB LEVEL AND SHOWWALTER INDICES STAY ABV 0C. SO LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDER MENTION.

SYSTEMS MOVES EAST AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY SAT MORNING IN ERN ND
AND BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN NW/WCNTRL MN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
WITH WEST WINDS GETTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUNDAY WILL SEE WARM ADV AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST ONE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHD OF IT WILL DRAW UP WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S EASTER SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. CANADIAN MODEL HAS MID 50 DEW PTS SUN
NIGHT WHICH SEEM HIGH....BUT MIGHT BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY SUN
EVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. KEPT IT OUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BUT
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THEN WEST WINDS AND A BIT COOLER 850 MB AIR
MONDAY. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN AMOUNT OF 850 MB COOLING WITH GFS
COOLEST AND NAM WARMEST. USING MODEL BLEND STILL GIVES HIGHS MID
50S TO MID 60S...THOUGH GFS WOULD BRING WARPAROUND STRATOCU AND
COLDER TEMPS SOUTHWARD MORE THAN OTHER MODELS. DO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADV.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD PORTENDS THE ONLY DRY DAY IN
THE FCST WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.  THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFS RUNS
OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION FEATURING COLDER AIR (SUB 0 850 TEMPS) BY
FRIDAY.

MAIN SYSTEM ENTERS DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE
WINDS IT UP WITH BOWLING BALL 500 MB LOW THREATENING TO CAPTURE AND
STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY LATE THURSDAY.  NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
EARLY ON SO WENT SHOWERY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL COLD POOL
ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.  COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST COMES DOWN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS.  WE MAY BE HIGH WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS BUT THIS CAN BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA AT ALL SITES. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT CHANCES FOR THIS ARE VERY LOW.
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 190250
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WILL BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. INTO THE VALLEY AREA...WINDS ARE
FINALLY INCREASING AND ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AN AREA OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
SHOULD RECEIVE RAINFALL (MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA)...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. INTO THE NE FA
(LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA)...MIXED P-TYPES STILL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 50F...AND
ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASK WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN LOW. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND BUT SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
NO PRECIP YET HITTING THE GROUND AS DRY SUB 925 MB AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...AN AREA OF 30-40 KT
SFC WINDS THIS AFTN WHEATON MN UP THROUGH JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY
THROUGH DVL BASIN-MINOT. AS THE 925 MB WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THE HIGHEST WINDS (50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED IN THE RRV THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY
AS WIND ADV MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUED PAST 00Z IN SOME AREAS AND
ALSO AS HIGHER 925 MB WINDS MOVE INTO THE NRN VALLEY. BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THIS MAY KEEP A LID
ON WIND SPEEDS JUST ENOUGH. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OR DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGH POPS ESP 03Z-06Z NE ND AND INTO NW MN
06Z-12Z. FOR PTYPE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
FCST AREA. QUESTION ARISES ON IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. ALL MODELS KEEP A TIGHT 925 MB TEMP
GRADIENT ALONG THE STEINBACH-WARROAD-BAUDETTE-GRAND RAPIDS MN
LINE. MOST MODEL PROG SFC TEMPS FROM RAP/HRRR HAS TEMPS AT 32-33
IN BAUDETTE AT 09Z. SO GOING TO BE CLOSE CALL. USING TOP DOWN
PTYPE THERE WILL BE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO START MAYBE FREEZING PRECIP
AT FLAG ISLAND-OAK ISLAND IN FAR NRN LOW COUNTY. IT WOULD GO TO
RAIN BY 12Z. JUST HOW LONG WINTRY PCPN WILL BE AND SFC TEMPS IS
KEY AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM AS IF ANY
SNOW/SLEET FALLS AT 33 DEGREES IT WOULDNT CAUSE BIG ISSUES.

SPC HAD SE ND/WCNTRL MN IN 10 PCT THUNDER AREA 04Z-10Z. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE NOT GREAT AT 850
MB LEVEL AND SHOWWALTER INDICES STAY ABV 0C. SO LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDER MENTION.

SYSTEMS MOVES EAST AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY SAT MORNING IN ERN ND
AND BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN NW/WCNTRL MN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
WITH WEST WINDS GETTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUNDAY WILL SEE WARM ADV AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST ONE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHD OF IT WILL DRAW UP WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S EASTER SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. CANADIAN MODEL HAS MID 50 DEW PTS SUN
NIGHT WHICH SEEM HIGH....BUT MIGHT BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY SUN
EVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. KEPT IT OUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BUT
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THEN WEST WINDS AND A BIT COOLER 850 MB AIR
MONDAY. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN AMOUNT OF 850 MB COOLING WITH GFS
COOLEST AND NAM WARMEST. USING MODEL BLEND STILL GIVES HIGHS MID
50S TO MID 60S...THOUGH GFS WOULD BRING WARPAROUND STRATOCU AND
COLDER TEMPS SOUTHWARD MORE THAN OTHER MODELS. DO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADV.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD PORTENDS THE ONLY DRY DAY IN
THE FCST WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.  THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFS RUNS
OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION FEATURING COLDER AIR (SUB 0 850 TEMPS) BY
FRIDAY.

MAIN SYSTEM ENTERS DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE
WINDS IT UP WITH BOWLING BALL 500 MB LOW THREATENING TO CAPTURE AND
STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY LATE THURSDAY.  NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
EARLY ON SO WENT SHOWERY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL COLD POOL
ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.  COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST COMES DOWN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS.  WE MAY BE HIGH WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS BUT THIS CAN BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA AT ALL
SITES. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS. WIND SHIFT
TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 182307
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WE ARE APPROACHING 00Z AND WIND SPEEDS ARE REMAINING IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 925MB WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE MIXING LAYER ALSO LOWERS TO
AROUND 925MB. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND SPREADING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WOULD NEED TO AT LEAST EXTEND THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY. WHILE WE ARE AT IT...WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY.

WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPES FOR
LATER THIS EVENING ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASK WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN LOW. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND BUT SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
NO PRECIP YET HITTING THE GROUND AS DRY SUB 925 MB AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...AN AREA OF 30-40 KT
SFC WINDS THIS AFTN WHEATON MN UP THROUGH JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY
THROUGH DVL BASIN-MINOT. AS THE 925 MB WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THE HIGHEST WINDS (50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED IN THE RRV THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY
AS WIND ADV MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUED PAST 00Z IN SOME AREAS AND
ALSO AS HIGHER 925 MB WINDS MOVE INTO THE NRN VALLEY. BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THIS MAY KEEP A LID
ON WIND SPEEDS JUST ENOUGH. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OR DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGH POPS ESP 03Z-06Z NE ND AND INTO NW MN
06Z-12Z. FOR PTYPE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
FCST AREA. QUESTION ARISES ON IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. ALL MODELS KEEP A TIGHT 925 MB TEMP
GRADIENT ALONG THE STEINBACH-WARROAD-BAUDETTE-GRAND RAPIDS MN
LINE. MOST MODEL PROG SFC TEMPS FROM RAP/HRRR HAS TEMPS AT 32-33
IN BAUDETTE AT 09Z. SO GOING TO BE CLOSE CALL. USING TOP DOWN
PTYPE THERE WILL BE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO START MAYBE FREEZING PRECIP
AT FLAG ISLAND-OAK ISLAND IN FAR NRN LOW COUNTY. IT WOULD GO TO
RAIN BY 12Z. JUST HOW LONG WINTRY PCPN WILL BE AND SFC TEMPS IS
KEY AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM AS IF ANY
SNOW/SLEET FALLS AT 33 DEGREES IT WOULDNT CAUSE BIG ISSUES.

SPC HAD SE ND/WCNTRL MN IN 10 PCT THUNDER AREA 04Z-10Z. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE NOT GREAT AT 850
MB LEVEL AND SHOWWALTER INDICES STAY ABV 0C. SO LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDER MENTION.

SYSTEMS MOVES EAST AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY SAT MORNING IN ERN ND
AND BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN NW/WCNTRL MN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
WITH WEST WINDS GETTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUNDAY WILL SEE WARM ADV AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST ONE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHD OF IT WILL DRAW UP WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S EASTER SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. CANADIAN MODEL HAS MID 50 DEW PTS SUN
NIGHT WHICH SEEM HIGH....BUT MIGHT BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY SUN
EVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. KEPT IT OUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BUT
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THEN WEST WINDS AND A BIT COOLER 850 MB AIR
MONDAY. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN AMOUNT OF 850 MB COOLING WITH GFS
COOLEST AND NAM WARMEST. USING MODEL BLEND STILL GIVES HIGHS MID
50S TO MID 60S...THOUGH GFS WOULD BRING WARPAROUND STRATOCU AND
COLDER TEMPS SOUTHWARD MORE THAN OTHER MODELS. DO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADV.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD PORTENDS THE ONLY DRY DAY IN
THE FCST WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.  THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFS RUNS
OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION FEATURING COLDER AIR (SUB 0 850 TEMPS) BY
FRIDAY.

MAIN SYSTEM ENTERS DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE
WINDS IT UP WITH BOWLING BALL 500 MB LOW THREATENING TO CAPTURE AND
STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY LATE THURSDAY.  NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
EARLY ON SO WENT SHOWERY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL COLD POOL
ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.  COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST COMES DOWN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS.  WE MAY BE HIGH WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS BUT THIS CAN BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHRA AT ALL
SITES. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS. WIND SHIFT
TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 182037
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
337 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASK WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BUT MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN LOW. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND BUT SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
NO PRECIP YET HITTING THE GROUND AS DRY SUB 925 MB AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF WINDS...AN AREA OF 30-40 KT
SFC WINDS THIS AFTN WHEATON MN UP THROUGH JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY
THROUGH DVL BASIN-MINOT. AS THE 925 MB WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY THE HIGHEST WINDS (50 KTS AT 925 MB) WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED IN THE RRV THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY
AS WIND ADV MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUED PAST 00Z IN SOME AREAS AND
ALSO AS HIGHER 925 MB WINDS MOVE INTO THE NRN VALLEY. BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET AS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND THIS MAY KEEP A LID
ON WIND SPEEDS JUST ENOUGH. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OR DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGH POPS ESP 03Z-06Z NE ND AND INTO NW MN
06Z-12Z. FOR PTYPE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
FCST AREA. QUESTION ARISES ON IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. ALL MODELS KEEP A TIGHT 925 MB TEMP
GRADIENT ALONG THE STEINBACH-WARROAD-BAUDETTE-GRAND RAPIDS MN
LINE. MOST MODEL PROG SFC TEMPS FROM RAP/HRRR HAS TEMPS AT 32-33
IN BAUDETTE AT 09Z. SO GOING TO BE CLOSE CALL. USING TOP DOWN
PTYPE THERE WILL BE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO START MAYBE FREEZING PRECIP
AT FLAG ISLAND-OAK ISLAND IN FAR NRN LOW COUNTY. IT WOULD GO TO
RAIN BY 12Z. JUST HOW LONG WINTRY PCPN WILL BE AND SFC TEMPS IS
KEY AND TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM AS IF ANY
SNOW/SLEET FALLS AT 33 DEGREES IT WOULDNT CAUSE BIG ISSUES.

SPC HAD SE ND/WCNTRL MN IN 10 PCT THUNDER AREA 04Z-10Z. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE BUT MOISTURE NOT GREAT AT 850
MB LEVEL AND SHOWWALTER INDICES STAY ABV 0C. SO LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDER MENTION.

SYSTEMS MOVES EAST AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY SAT MORNING IN ERN ND
AND BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN NW/WCNTRL MN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
WITH WEST WINDS GETTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUNDAY WILL SEE WARM ADV AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN LAST ONE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHD OF IT WILL DRAW UP WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOWER 70S EASTER SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. CANADIAN MODEL HAS MID 50 DEW PTS SUN
NIGHT WHICH SEEM HIGH....BUT MIGHT BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY SUN
EVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. KEPT IT OUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BUT
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN THEN WEST WINDS AND A BIT COOLER 850 MB AIR
MONDAY. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN AMOUNT OF 850 MB COOLING WITH GFS
COOLEST AND NAM WARMEST. USING MODEL BLEND STILL GIVES HIGHS MID
50S TO MID 60S...THOUGH GFS WOULD BRING WARPAROUND STRATOCU AND
COLDER TEMPS SOUTHWARD MORE THAN OTHER MODELS. DO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADV.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD PORTENDS THE ONLY DRY DAY IN
THE FCST WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES.  THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFS RUNS
OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION FEATURING COLDER AIR (SUB 0 850 TEMPS) BY
FRIDAY.

MAIN SYSTEM ENTERS DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE
WINDS IT UP WITH BOWLING BALL 500 MB LOW THREATENING TO CAPTURE AND
STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESS BY LATE THURSDAY.  NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
EARLY ON SO WENT SHOWERY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL COLD POOL
ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.  COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST COMES DOWN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS.  WE MAY BE HIGH WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS BUT THIS CAN BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014


MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND SPEED INCREASE AND VARIABILITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF COVERAGE PERIOD.  WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME
UP AT MOST SITES...BUT FRESHENING HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST HOUR AND
GUSTINESS SHOULD KICK IN AS WELL BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TO
AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER TONIGHT...INCLUDED
-SHRA EXCEPT FOR KBJI WHERE -RA MENTION IS MORE INDICATIVE OF
BEST AREA FOR STEADIER RAIN.

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS.
WIND SHIFT TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...WJB









000
FXUS63 KFGF 181809
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
109 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

PREV FCST HOLDING GOOD AS WINDS INCREASING IN THAT WAHPETON-DVL
ZONE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS RISING RESPECTABLY AS CLOUDS
THIN SOME. INCOMING SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AS EXPECTED BEST
CHC OF PRECIP TONIGHT NRN FCST AREA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS ON THE
FENCE WITH SOME ICING POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMPS LOOK AROUND 32-33 SO
ATTM NOT PLANNING ON ADVISORY. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.
ALSO WILL WATCH WINDS AS WIND ADV MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR LATE
AFTN INTO NRN RRV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...WIND TODAY/EVENING AND
PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TODAY. MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WITH 30 TO 40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN FA INTO SE ND SO WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
MIXING...WARMER START AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SD
THE OTHER IN SASK EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO MAIN LOW NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT FA BY MORNING. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 50+ KTS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY
AN INCH. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE RESPECTABLE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
BOUNDARY MORE UNCERTAIN AS BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH. STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM ELEVATED LAYER BUT
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE MIXED PCPN
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NE. FAVORED GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ZR POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
CRANKS UP. HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO 7PM AND HOPEFULLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THEN. MIXING AND FA IN WARM SECTOR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

COLUMN DRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS SOME
DURING THE DAY HOWEVER WITH SOLAR AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKS LIKE MILDER DAY EASTER SUNDAY WITH WARMING COLUMN AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS S CANADA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
00 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY
GIVEN TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS DRY SLOTTING THE REGION... WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET. THIS GFS/DRY ECMWF/WET BIAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND WRAP UP ACROSS MN
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER AS THE LOW EXITS...BUT THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT GIVEN SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE ALL BLEND
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHER VALUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014


MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND SPEED INCREASE AND VARIABILITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF COVERAGE PERIOD.  WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME
UP AT MOST SITES...BUT FRESHENING HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST HOUR AND
GUSTINESS SHOULD KICK IN AS WELL BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TO
AFFECT AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR SITES LATER TONIGHT...INCLUDED
-SHRA EXCEPT FOR KBJI WHERE -RA MENTION IS MORE INDICATIVE OF
BEST AREA FOR STEADIER RAIN.

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE -RA/-SHRA INTERVALS.
WIND SHIFT TO MORE WSW OCCURS TOWARD END OF PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181520
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WARM ADV MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO
REMAIN OVER NRN/ERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN TODAY AND SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST. SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLEARING TO WORK INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FCST AREA THIS AFTN. SO THAT DVL-FAR AREA SOUTHWEST STANDS THE
BEST CHC OF SOME CLEARING AND WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT BETTER
MIXING SO WIND ADV LOOKS GOOD. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY EXPANSION INTO
THE NRN RRV. FAR NORTHESTERN FCST AREA CLEAR ATTM BUT CLOUD
INCREASE THIS AFTN. TEMPS APPEAR OK BUT MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO GET
INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS WITH CLOUDS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...WIND TODAY/EVENING AND
PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TODAY. MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WITH 30 TO 40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN FA INTO SE ND SO WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
MIXING...WARMER START AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SD
THE OTHER IN SASK EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO MAIN LOW NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT FA BY MORNING. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 50+ KTS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY
AN INCH. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE RESPECTABLE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
BOUNDARY MORE UNCERTAIN AS BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH. STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM ELEVATED LAYER BUT
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE MIXED PCPN
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NE. FAVORED GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ZR POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
CRANKS UP. HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO 7PM AND HOPEFULLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THEN. MIXING AND FA IN WARM SECTOR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

COLUMN DRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS SOME
DURING THE DAY HOWEVER WITH SOLAR AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKS LIKE MILDER DAY EASTER SUNDAY WITH WARMING COLUMN AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS S CANADA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
00 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY
GIVEN TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS DRY SLOTTING THE REGION... WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET. THIS GFS/DRY ECMWF/WET BIAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND WRAP UP ACROSS MN
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER AS THE LOW EXITS...BUT THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT GIVEN SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE ALL BLEND
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHER VALUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WILL SEE PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. E-SE
WIND WILL INCREASE BECOMING WINDY TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM DVL THROUGH FAR. ANY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF TIL EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...WIND TODAY/EVENING AND
PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TODAY. MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WITH 30 TO 40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN FA INTO SE ND SO WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
MIXING...WARMER START AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SD
THE OTHER IN SASK EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO MAIN LOW NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT FA BY MORNING. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 50+ KTS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY
AN INCH. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE RESPECTABLE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
BOUNDARY MORE UNCERTAIN AS BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH. STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM ELEVATED LAYER BUT
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE MIXED PCPN
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NE. FAVORED GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ZR POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
CRANKS UP. HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO 7PM AND HOPEFULLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THEN. MIXING AND FA IN WARM SECTOR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

COLUMN DRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS SOME
DURING THE DAY HOWEVER WITH SOLAR AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKS LIKE MILDER DAY EASTER SUNDAY WITH WARMING COLUMN AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS S CANADA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
00 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY
GIVEN TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS DRY SLOTTING THE REGION... WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET. THIS GFS/DRY ECMWF/WET BIAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND WRAP UP ACROSS MN
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER AS THE LOW EXITS...BUT THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT GIVEN SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE ALL BLEND
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHER VALUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WILL SEE PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. E-SE
WIND WILL INCREASE BECOMING WINDY TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM DVL THROUGH FAR. ANY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF TIL EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...WIND TODAY/EVENING AND
PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TODAY. MIXED LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 850MB WITH 30 TO 40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN FA INTO SE ND SO WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
MIXING...WARMER START AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN SD
THE OTHER IN SASK EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO MAIN LOW NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BISECT FA BY MORNING. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 50+ KTS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY
AN INCH. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE RESPECTABLE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
BOUNDARY MORE UNCERTAIN AS BEST FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH. STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM ELEVATED LAYER BUT
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE MIXED PCPN
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NE. FAVORED GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ZR POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE ND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
CRANKS UP. HAVE ADVISORY GOING TO 7PM AND HOPEFULLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THEN. MIXING AND FA IN WARM SECTOR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

COLUMN DRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS SOME
DURING THE DAY HOWEVER WITH SOLAR AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKS LIKE MILDER DAY EASTER SUNDAY WITH WARMING COLUMN AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS S CANADA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
00 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY
GIVEN TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS DRY SLOTTING THE REGION... WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET. THIS GFS/DRY ECMWF/WET BIAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND WRAP UP ACROSS MN
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER AS THE LOW EXITS...BUT THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT GIVEN SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE ALL BLEND
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHER VALUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN VFR. LOWER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD)...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAIN LOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK AS ANTICIPATED...THUS NO BIG
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP FOR LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE DROPPING
A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON
FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL BE QUASI ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH A FEW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE
US/CANADA REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE MODERATING TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON...925 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY TO AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EDGE UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE GFS/NAM ALSO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE ND/WC MN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY SLOW TO MOISTEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OR ABOVE AIDED BY A LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 45-50 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF MAINLY
RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ICE MAINLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/ROSEAU AREAS. RIGHT NOW DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THIS AREA THOUGH. AREAS OF ONE QUARTER TO
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED FROM NE ND INTO PARTS
OF NW MN...WITH LOWER TOTALS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END OVER NORTHWEST MN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
WINDS AND GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RESPOND NICELY UP INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE...HELPING TO PROPEL DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TUE INTO
WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SFC LOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS PER THE GFS
WHILE THE  ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A DOUBLE LOW SOLUTION WITH ONE OVER
THE PLAINS AND A MORE NORTHERN LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END
OF THE FCST PD. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID
THOUGH THERE MAY BE THE OCCURRENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE
FCST PD.

TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND BELOW NORMAL THU DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN VFR. LOWER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD)...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAIN LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE FORECAST POINT AT PEMBINA WAS STILL ON THE RISE. PEMBINA FORECAST
RAISED TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRAYTON WAS NEARLY STEADY AND ALL
OTHER FORECAST POINTS {ALVARADO...OSLO...HALLOCK) IN FLOOD AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL. GRAND FORKS FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE TO RIVER POINTS IN FLOOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK AS ANTICIPATED...THUS NO BIG
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP FOR LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE DROPPING
A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON
FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL BE QUASI ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH A FEW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE
US/CANADA REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE MODERATING TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON...925 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY TO AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EDGE UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE GFS/NAM ALSO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE ND/WC MN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY SLOW TO MOISTEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OR ABOVE AIDED BY A LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 45-50 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF MAINLY
RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ICE MAINLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/ROSEAU AREAS. RIGHT NOW DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THIS AREA THOUGH. AREAS OF ONE QUARTER TO
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED FROM NE ND INTO PARTS
OF NW MN...WITH LOWER TOTALS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END OVER NORTHWEST MN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
WINDS AND GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RESPOND NICELY UP INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE...HELPING TO PROPEL DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TUE INTO
WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SFC LOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS PER THE GFS
WHILE THE  ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A DOUBLE LOW SOLUTION WITH ONE OVER
THE PLAINS AND A MORE NORTHERN LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END
OF THE FCST PD. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID
THOUGH THERE MAY BE THE OCCURRENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE
FCST PD.

TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND BELOW NORMAL THU DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN VFR. LOWER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER THIS CURRENT TAF PERIOD).


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE FORECAST POINT AT PEMBINA WAS STILL ON THE RISE. PEMBINA FORECAST
RAISED TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRAYTON WAS NEARLY STEADY AND ALL
OTHER FORECAST POINTS {ALVARADO...OSLO...HALLOCK) IN FLOOD AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL. GRAND FORKS FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE TO RIVER POINTS IN FLOOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 172340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON
FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL BE QUASI ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH A FEW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE
US/CANADA REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE MODERATING TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON...925 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY TO AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EDGE UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE GFS/NAM ALSO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE ND/WC MN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY SLOW TO MOISTEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OR ABOVE AIDED BY A LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 45-50 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF MAINLY
RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ICE MAINLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/ROSEAU AREAS. RIGHT NOW DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THIS AREA THOUGH. AREAS OF ONE QUARTER TO
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED FROM NE ND INTO PARTS
OF NW MN...WITH LOWER TOTALS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END OVER NORTHWEST MN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
WINDS AND GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RESPOND NICELY UP INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE...HELPING TO PROPEL DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TUE INTO
WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SFC LOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS PER THE GFS
WHILE THE  ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A DOUBLE LOW SOLUTION WITH ONE OVER
THE PLAINS AND A MORE NORTHERN LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END
OF THE FCST PD. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID
THOUGH THERE MAY BE THE OCCURRENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE
FCST PD.

TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND BELOW NORMAL THU DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN VFR. LOWER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER THIS CURRENT TAF PERIOD).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE FORECAST POINT AT PEMBINA WAS STILL ON THE RISE. PEMBINA FORECAST
RAISED TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRAYTON WAS NEARLY STEADY AND ALL
OTHER FORECAST POINTS {ALVARADO...OSLO...HALLOCK) IN FLOOD AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL. GRAND FORKS FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE TO RIVER POINTS IN FLOOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 172035
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON
FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL BE QUASI ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH A FEW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE
US/CANADA REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE MODERATING TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON...925 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY TO AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EDGE UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE GFS/NAM ALSO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE ND/WC MN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY SLOW TO MOISTEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OR ABOVE AIDED BY A LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 45-50 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF MAINLY
RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ICE MAINLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/ROSEAU AREAS. RIGHT NOW DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THIS AREA THOUGH. AREAS OF ONE QUARTER TO
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED FROM NE ND INTO PARTS
OF NW MN...WITH LOWER TOTALS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END OVER NORTHWEST MN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
WINDS AND GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RESPOND NICELY UP INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE...HELPING TO PROPEL DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TUE INTO
WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SFC LOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS PER THE GFS
WHILE THE  ECWMF DEPICTS MORE OF A DOUBLE LOW SOLUTION WITH ONE OVER
THE PLAINS AND A MORE NORTHERN LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END
OF THE FCST PD. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID
THOUGH THERE MAY BE THE OCCURRENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE
FCST PD.

TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND BELOW NORMAL THU DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VALLEY THIS AFTN WILL
PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT SCT MID
DECK TO MOVE INTO THE DVL BASIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE VALLEY
FOLLOWING SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN ESELY FRI MORNING WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS TO 12-15 KTS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS ND. CIGS OF 5-6K FT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL AND
KFAR BY FRI MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE FORECAST POINT AT PEMBINA WAS STILL ON THE RISE. PEMBINA FORECAST
RAISED TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRAYTON WAS NEARLY STEADY AND ALL
OTHER FORECAST POINTS {ALVARADO...OSLO...HALLOCK) IN FLOOD AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL. GRAND FORKS FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE TO RIVER POINTS IN FLOOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...FRAZIER
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 171742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MOST LOCALES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED HOURLY CURVES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY/S
READINGS EXCEPT ACROSS MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A 500 HPA SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6 C BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA BY 21 UTC AND WITH 20 TO 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SFC...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BEMIDJI TOWARDS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NEAR SFC SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET MIX. ADDED THIS MIX TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. P-TYPE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SFC TEMP...DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEAR SFC COLD LAYER. LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH P-TYPE CAREFULLY FOR ANY
ADVERSE IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY...SOME ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WITH MAYBE EVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LAST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY
NOON ON SATURDAY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER FROM
+8 TO +14 C BY 00 UTC SUNDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT NOT TOO
STRONG AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND STARTS AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE US FAIRLY
WET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VALLEY THIS AFTN WILL
PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT SCT MID
DECK TO MOVE INTO THE DVL BASIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE VALLEY
FOLLOWING SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN ESELY FRI MORNING WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS TO 12-15 KTS AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS ND. CIGS OF 5-6K FT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL AND
KFAR BY FRI MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO ROSE BACK UP TO NEAR MODERATE AGAIN...
BUT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GOING BACK DOWN SO WILL LEAVE THE
STATEMENTS ALONE. RUNOFF IS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN RED SITES...ALVARADO...AND HALLOCK STILL IN FLOOD. THE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...FRAZIER
HYDROLOGY...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 171446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE ONCE AGAIN...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MOST LOCALES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED HOURLY CURVES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY/S
READINGS EXCEPT ACROSS MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A 500 HPA SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6 C BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA BY 21 UTC AND WITH 20 TO 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SFC...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BEMIDJI TOWARDS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NEAR SFC SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET MIX. ADDED THIS MIX TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. P-TYPE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SFC TEMP...DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEAR SFC COLD LAYER. LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH P-TYPE CAREFULLY FOR ANY
ADVERSE IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY...SOME ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WITH MAYBE EVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LAST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY
NOON ON SATURDAY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER FROM
+8 TO +14 C BY 00 UTC SUNDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT NOT TOO
STRONG AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND STARTS AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE US FAIRLY
WET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO ROSE BACK UP TO NEAR MODERATE AGAIN...
BUT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GOING BACK DOWN SO WILL LEAVE THE
STATEMENTS ALONE. RUNOFF IS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN RED SITES...ALVARADO...AND HALLOCK STILL IN FLOOD. THE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 171200 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED HOURLY CURVES TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY/S
READINGS EXCEPT ACROSS MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A 500 HPA SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6 C BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA BY 21 UTC AND WITH 20 TO 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SFC...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BEMIDJI TOWARDS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NEAR SFC SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET MIX. ADDED THIS MIX TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. P-TYPE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SFC TEMP...DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEAR SFC COLD LAYER. LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH P-TYPE CAREFULLY FOR ANY
ADVERSE IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY...SOME ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WITH MAYBE EVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LAST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY
NOON ON SATURDAY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER FROM
+8 TO +14 C BY 00 UTC SUNDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT NOT TOO
STRONG AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND STARTS AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE US FAIRLY
WET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO ROSE BACK UP TO NEAR MODERATE AGAIN...
BUT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GOING BACK DOWN SO WILL LEAVE THE
STATEMENTS ALONE. RUNOFF IS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN RED SITES...ALVARADO...AND HALLOCK STILL IN FLOOD. THE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 170846
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 00 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE...SO WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY/S
READINGS EXCEPT ACROSS MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

A 500 HPA SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6 C BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA BY 21 UTC AND WITH 20 TO 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SFC...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BEMIDJI TOWARDS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND NEAR SFC SUB-
FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/
SLEET MIX. ADDED THIS MIX TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. P-TYPE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SFC TEMP...DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEAR SFC COLD LAYER. LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH P-TYPE CAREFULLY FOR ANY
ADVERSE IMPACTS. ULTIMATELY...SOME ICY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WITH MAYBE EVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LAST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY
NOON ON SATURDAY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER FROM
+8 TO +14 C BY 00 UTC SUNDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT NOT TOO
STRONG AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A
RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND STARTS AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN PLAINS TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS START TO DIVERGE
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE US FAIRLY
WET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO ROSE BACK UP TO NEAR MODERATE AGAIN...
BUT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GOING BACK DOWN SO WILL LEAVE THE
STATEMENTS ALONE. RUNOFF IS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN RED SITES...ALVARADO...AND HALLOCK STILL IN FLOOD. THE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...JR








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