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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO FLOODING THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH TRAINING ECHOES IN SOUTHEAST ND. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. GUSTS OVER 25KT ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO FLOODING THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITH TRAINING ECHOES IN SOUTHEAST ND. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. GUSTS OVER 25KT ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THEN
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MB WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH N CENTRAL TO SW ND. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FIRST AREA IS ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA
VCNTY WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR HOWEVER
WEAKEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WITH LACK OF HEATING. FEEL MAIN AREA
WILL BE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM
NE-SW BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH HALF OF THIS AREA ABLE TO HEAT OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THIS AREA HOWEVER IN ZONE OF
LOWER SHEAR AND FROM WATER VAPOR TOUGH TO PICK OUT A WAVE TO
ASSIST IN VERTICAL MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM HOWEVER
WITH LOW SHEAR MAY BE PULSEY. FRONT LAGS ACROSS THE FAR SE TOWARDS
MORNING SO MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE TO THE NW.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SOLAR DURING THE DAY HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE. WILL ALSO BE WINDY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR NW WILL BE
UNDER COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A GOOD
LOOK AT FROST POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. REMAINDER
OF THE FA WILL BE QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SKC...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BUT COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL.

WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY SO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP LATER IN THE WEEK. VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE LESS CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH BLENDED POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JR/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD. WEAKENING ECHOES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E-NE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA AND MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW ALONG N CENTRAL
ND/CANADIAN BORDER TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THIS AFTERNOON. E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA SHOULD ALSO LIFT NORTH INTO S CANADA. N-S PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM N CENTRAL INTO SW ND BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL FOLLOW
IN THE NEAR TERM. NSSL WRF SHOWS RATHER UNORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT
MID AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME RECOVERY IN INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN BAND
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH MAIN BAND
OVER NE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SW CELLS MORE ISOLATED. AS WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA WILL SEE A BREAK BEHIND THE RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND WILL ADJUST AT FURTHER UPDATES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD. WEAKENING ECHOES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E-NE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA AND MADE MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW ALONG N CENTRAL
ND/CANADIAN BORDER TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THIS AFTERNOON. E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA SHOULD ALSO LIFT NORTH INTO S CANADA. N-S PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM N CENTRAL INTO SW ND BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL FOLLOW
IN THE NEAR TERM. NSSL WRF SHOWS RATHER UNORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT
MID AFTERNOON AND WITH SOME RECOVERY IN INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN BAND
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH MAIN BAND
OVER NE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SW CELLS MORE ISOLATED. AS WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA WILL SEE A BREAK BEHIND THE RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND WILL ADJUST AT FURTHER UPDATES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE... BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 20 TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT MENTION AS VCTS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A STORM WILL
IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AND THE NEXT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH DURING
THE 04 TO 09Z TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER 25 KTS. KEPT CIGS IN THE 2500-
3500 FT RANGE FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
ANYTHING LOWER FORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH MAIN BAND
OVER NE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SW CELLS MORE ISOLATED. AS WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA WILL SEE A BREAK BEHIND THE RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND WILL ADJUST AT FURTHER UPDATES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH MAIN BAND
OVER NE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SW CELLS MORE ISOLATED. AS WAVE
LIFTS INTO CANADA WILL SEE A BREAK BEHIND THE RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND WILL ADJUST AT FURTHER UPDATES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FCST ON TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE RRV INTO
MINNESOTA. ISOLD TSTM IN FARGO AREA SO ADDED ISOLD T TO GRID IN
SRN RRV FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL 06Z NCEP MODELS AND
HRRR/RAP INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO AS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BATCH OF PRECIP EXITING AND THEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MID AFTN. EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. HRRR HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER MODELS WITH MORE FARGO VS GRAND
FORKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARGO WILL EXIT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXITING
THE NRN VALLEY AND NW MN THIS MORNING. A BREAK EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CIGS (HIGH BASED CU AND AC). THEN QUESTION IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF FRONT AND LOCATION. KEPT VCTS IDEA IN MOST TAFS MID TO
LATE AFTN. AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO
25 KTS THEN TURNING WEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SOME RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT BUT KEPT IN VFR
CAT FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280854
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280854
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES A BIT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON SUN. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN CNTRL ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND. UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGHTEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SFC LOW WILL BE NR A HALLOCK MN-MICHIGAN ND-JAMESTOWN LINE NR
21Z. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS UP
NEAR 80. GFS HAS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR THAN NAM...AND WITH DEW PTS
PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE
IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF
FRONT. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS IN THE UNSTABLE CORRIDOR
FROM FAR NW MN INTO ECNTRL ND. THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST. IF WE INDEED GET SFC HEATING TO NR 80 AND DEW PTS
60-62...THEN I AGREE WITH SPC IN THAT ISOLD SVR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. NSSL WRF/SPC WRF ARE ALL A TAD SLOWER THAN HRRR/RAP.
T-STORM THREAT WILL LAST A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND ONL
SLOWLY EXIT FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN TONIGHT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR
TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTEST WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND-DVL BASIN.
STILL IDEA PRESENT OF SOME SCT FROST DVL BASIN-LANGDON-COOPERSTOWN
AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY WITH LOWS 32-34 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE
SUNSHINE BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SAT AFTN-NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND GUST TO 25KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 00Z FRI BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WE STILL EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST AROUND 6Z THEN SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THU AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THU...AND
COULD GUST TO 30KT AT TIMES. HAVE NOT GONE THIS HIGH IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS COULD
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THU...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS IN VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WE STILL EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST AROUND 6Z THEN SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THU AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THU...AND
COULD GUST TO 30KT AT TIMES. HAVE NOT GONE THIS HIGH IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS COULD
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THU...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS IN VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUT NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. THESE INITIAL
STORMS SHOULD DIE AS THEY DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT WITH ABOUT A 40KT LLJ AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.25 INCHES LATER TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. DID SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AFTER 06Z-12Z...BUT DID NOT
TOUCH POPS THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THU AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THU...AND
COULD GUST TO 30KT AT TIMES. HAVE NOT GONE THIS HIGH IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS COULD
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THU...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS IN VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUT NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. THESE INITIAL
STORMS SHOULD DIE AS THEY DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT WITH ABOUT A 40KT LLJ AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.25 INCHES LATER TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. DID SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AFTER 06Z-12Z...BUT DID NOT
TOUCH POPS THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THU AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THU...AND
COULD GUST TO 30KT AT TIMES. HAVE NOT GONE THIS HIGH IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS COULD
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THU...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS IN VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHWOING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POTENTIAL (LOW) AND THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
PRECIP...AND PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND AND NAM TO ADD SOME DETAIL.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...USING HI RES MODELS FOR GUIDANCE ON
LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POTENTIAL.

THIS EVENING...SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHWOING MU CAPE BLAND ALONG
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTL BORDER AND NORTH OF HWY 2
CORRIDOR...AS FAR EASTWARD AS HALLOCK MN. ML CAPES NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AND SFC BASED CIN IS STILL 100 TO 250 IN THAT AREA.
OVERALL SPOTTY CONVECTION DEPICTED BY HRRR IS REASONABLE AND WILL
USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE REGION ONTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CIN VALUES
DECLINED RIGHT AT 21Z YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION THIS
AFTN.

TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EVOLVING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SLOWER
TODAY AND HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFT 06Z.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER CNTRL DAKOTAS AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST WILL BE TO GO MORE TSTMS
RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWALTERS
BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND
50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS SHEAR VALUES. THE NAM
BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A HAILER OR TWO
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OVERALL SFC LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND BETTER SFC HEATING TO MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS BRING
MOST ENHANCED PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ND IN THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME...SHIFTING TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO RISE AFT 06Z
FRIDAY TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY FRI
MORNING. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH SFC
LOW OVER SRN CANADA...SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE...MORE SUMMER TYPE CONVECTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADIAN PROVINCES SUNDAY. THIS AND
WARM ADVECTION COULD HELP SET OFF MAINLY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK SPOTTY CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SW ABOVE
BOUNDARY WILL PROPAGATE RELATIVELY SLOWLY SETTING UP POTENTIALLY
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD. CAPPING MAY LIMIT BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING CONTNIUES TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING CAPES LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY AND CIN IS A BIT STRONGER...BUT TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY
WOULD ERODE ANY CIN AROUND 21Z. HI RES MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
ACTIVITY VERY SCT IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT THINKING
THROUGH 06Z...WHEN ATTENTION TURNS TO INCOMING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER WAVE AND TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT. ONLY CHANGES
TO THURSDAY AT THIS POINT (HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED 12Z ECMWF) WILL
BE TO GO MORE TSTMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS
DUE TO SHOWALTERS BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY.
SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS
SHEAR VALUES. THEN NAME CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A
HAILER OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MORE DISCUSSION ON TOMORROW
WITH 21Z FCST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING CONTNIUES TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING CAPES LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY AND CIN IS A BIT STRONGER...BUT TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY
WOULD ERODE ANY CIN AROUND 21Z. HI RES MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
ACTIVITY VERY SCT IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT THINKING
THROUGH 06Z...WHEN ATTENTION TURNS TO INCOMING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER WAVE AND TRANSITION TO MORE SW FLOW ALOFT. ONLY CHANGES
TO THURSDAY AT THIS POINT (HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED 12Z ECMWF) WILL
BE TO GO MORE TSTMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. THIS IS
DUE TO SHOWALTERS BEING MORE NEGATIVE THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUNS...ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GFS HAS MORE IMPRESSIVE 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 50 KTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY.
SPC HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THEIR MARGINAL RISK...INTO THE HIGHER GFS
SHEAR VALUES. THEN NAME CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A
HAILER OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MORE DISCUSSION ON TOMORROW
WITH 21Z FCST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MONITORING WDLY
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOLLOWED BY A LESSER EXTENT AT FARGO. WITH SPOTTY NATURE EXPECTED
CONFINED MENTION TO VCSH IN DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND HRRR SHOW A
DIURNALLY RELATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN. DO HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WILL NOT
ADJUST TOO MUCH UNTIL NEWER RUNS COME IN. 06Z RUNS WERE SLOWER
THAN FCST GRIDS ON MAIN PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN ZONES...AND HRRR
IS SUPPORTING A LATER START TIME (NEARER 06Z). HAVE CUT BACK ON
EVENING POPS PER LATEST GUIDANCE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/W CNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANITOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANTIOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANTIOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS INTO NE ND/NW MN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER,
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE....AND DO EXPECT SOME
MID CLOUD PATCHES TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON...HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN PREV RUNS DID AS FAR
EAST AS FARGO-FERGUS FALLS. THUS DID ADD ISOLD THUNDER FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE AFTN INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
ABR/MPX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANTIOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR THRU 06Z THU. DO EXPECT SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS TODAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR SO TURNING MORE EAST TONIGHT. ISOLD
THUNDER PSBL DVL-FAR AREAS BUT TOO LOW OF A RISK TO MENTION IN
TAF. BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN DVL REGION AFTER 06Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH LAST EVENING. A BIT MORE STABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT LATER THIS AFTN SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO FAR WRN FCST AREA. HRRR/RAP DO HAVE A
COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THAT DVL-VCY AREA SO KEPT OUR LOW POP WE
HAD.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND INTO WRN/CNTRL
ND TONIGHT INTO THE RRV 12Z-18Z PERIOD. 30 KT 850 MB JET AND AN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TACT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
AND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WX THURSDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE CENTER AND SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR GFK MIDDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW
MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS SEVERE THREAT PRETTY LIMITED.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND
COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SW MANTIOBA FRI NIGHT AND
CENTER OF RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND MEANS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FROST IN THIS AREA.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST
WILL START OFF DRY FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
WAVE PASSING THRU ON SUNDAY...THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SPOTTY
PCPN FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT TO THE EAST. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MON NIGHT/TUE WITH MODELS DIVERGING QUITE A BIT IN PCPN
PLACEMENT. HPC GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BY BROADBRUSHING PCPN CHANCES
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW. TEMPS
START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SAT/SUN THEN MORE NORMAL BY
MON/TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM
CDT TUE MAY 26 2015FR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN ANY
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z THU AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVEVTION JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD INTO
THURSDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM
CDT TUE MAY 26 2015FR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN ANY
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z THU AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVEVTION JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM
CDT TUE MAY 26 2015FR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN ANY
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z THU AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVEVTION JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270313
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1013 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE...THE ONLY CHALLENGE WOULD BE
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH...NOT
EXPECTING FOG BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
COULD AFFECT ANY SITE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS NOT NEAR ANY TAF SITE...BUT WILL MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THEM INTO THIS EVENING A BIT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH CONVECTION DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET SINCE IT IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUT CIN IS
INCREASING QUICKLY ON SPC MESO PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
COULD AFFECT ANY SITE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS NOT NEAR ANY TAF SITE...BUT WILL MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THEM INTO THIS EVENING A BIT. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED WITH CONVECTION DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET SINCE IT IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUT CIN IS
INCREASING QUICKLY ON SPC MESO PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
COULD AFFECT ANY SITE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS NOT NEAR ANY TAF SITE...BUT WILL MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPKINS





000
FXUS63 KFGF 262027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261730
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED STORM IN EASTERN ND THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND A MORE RELEVANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.

CURRENT VIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CU JUST SOUTH OF DVL AREA...WEST OF
A TONGUE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN EASTERN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BAND
OF STRATOCU ACROSS NORTHERN MB. MODELS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR A STORM LATE AFTN IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...WHICH
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD PETER OUT AFT SUNSET. CLOUDS
TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTL BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BOTH OF THESE ARE
COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SEEM REASONABLE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM WILL BE WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE IN SW FLOW
ALOFT LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED ON LATE AFTN OR TONIGHT
SHOWERS BUT WILL ADDRESS TOMORROW NIGHTS SYSTEM AFT 12Z ECMWF HAS
BEEN ANALYZED. SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL SYSTEMS IS NIL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIG UPDATE NEEDED THIS FORENOON. PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING ALONG
FORECAST HEATING CURVE. THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF AN
INL-BJI-BWP-ABR LINE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261730
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED STORM IN EASTERN ND THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND A MORE RELEVANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.

CURRENT VIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CU JUST SOUTH OF DVL AREA...WEST OF
A TONGUE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN EASTERN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BAND
OF STRATOCU ACROSS NORTHERN MB. MODELS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR A STORM LATE AFTN IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...WHICH
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD PETER OUT AFT SUNSET. CLOUDS
TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTL BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BOTH OF THESE ARE
COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SEEM REASONABLE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM WILL BE WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE IN SW FLOW
ALOFT LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED ON LATE AFTN OR TONIGHT
SHOWERS BUT WILL ADDRESS TOMORROW NIGHTS SYSTEM AFT 12Z ECMWF HAS
BEEN ANALYZED. SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL SYSTEMS IS NIL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIG UPDATE NEEDED THIS FORENOON. PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING ALONG
FORECAST HEATING CURVE. THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF AN
INL-BJI-BWP-ABR LINE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
921 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIG UPDATE NEEDED THIS FORENOON. PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING ALONG
FORECAST HEATING CURVE. THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF AN
INL-BJI-BWP-ABR LINE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATING FROM HIGH BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER SURFACE
REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE PRECIP WAS REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MAN. WILL NOT MENTION
POPS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATING FROM HIGH BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER SURFACE
REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE PRECIP WAS REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MAN. WILL NOT MENTION
POPS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES





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