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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CI TO AFFECT FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE DVL
BASIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY CI UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE
FA. TOMORROW WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232010
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231730
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MID DAY UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION A BIT LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME REDUCED VIS AROUND DETROIT
LAKES AND WADENA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VIS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. THE TEMPS SEEM
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231103
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE FAR EAST...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG
HERE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...AS
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH A
WARM START THIS MORNING...AND FAVORABLE SW SFC WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL STAY MILD WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB
OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN WARMER WITH SOME AREAS REACHING
70 WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA...AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
NEARLY 800MB AND 40KT TO MIX. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON
IN AT LEAST THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WED...A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA IS REPLACED BY A FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER SOUTHERN
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ON MON AND DECREASED A DEGREE
OR TWO ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING RAIN BAND WILL
EXIT FA TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING THE FA VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT ON FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MAINTAINED MENTION AT BJI LEAVING REMAINDER FOG FREE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG FROM THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN FA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 222335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO THIN
WITH SHOWERS ALL EAST OF THE RED RIVER. STILL EXPECT -RA TO CLEAR
THE FA BY MID EVENING. WILL SEE HOW RAIN BAND HOLDS TOGETHER
FARTHER E AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN HAS CLEARED AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND WITH RAIN BAND
SHRINKING AND PROGRESSIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW VFR CIGS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE REMAINDER CLEARING FROM W-E. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR OVER THE FAR EAST AND MENTIONED SOME BR IN THE
BJI TAF. REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221954
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND CLEARING TRENDS
AS THE PCPN BAND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO THICKEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE PCPN BAND ALSO FILLED IN AND HAS BECOME
CONTINUOUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS AND
METAR REPORTS SHOW VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS THIN BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FA AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND THESE ARE ALSO PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ND
WHICH MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER IN THE
EVENING. OVERALL THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOOKING AT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS WORK INTO THE FA ON SAT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH MODELS
AGREEING THAT A BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE RESULTANT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A SEASONALLY
COOL NIGHT. THINGS CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THE
FALL...SO THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
BRISK...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWFA EXPECT A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOW POPS IN BLEND MAKE SENSE GIVING THE NORTHWARD
RUSH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE. ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SENDS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COMBINED WITH STRONG OPEN WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL DEPICTION OF -SHRA IN UPGLIDE AREA NORTHWEST
OF LOW MAKES SENSE. A MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY IT LEAVES A WEAK BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS DEPICTED IN GFS LOW POP -SHRA...MAYBE MORNING
MIX SEEMS LOGICAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/EWENS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221703
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GUSTY WINDS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS GFK/FAR
AND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO BELIEVE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS NEARING MVFR IN MODERATE
RAIN. HAVE BEEN WATCHING CENTRAL SD FOR TRENDS. AFTER THIS
EVENING...SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE NAM TRIES TO BRING IN LOW IFR CIGS
TO KBJI LATE TONIGHT. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. THE
SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LOW CIGS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY NOT LOOKING QUITE AS BAD AS MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.
THERE IS ACTUALLY A LOT OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS OUT ACROSS THE
KDVL REGION WHERE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL
BEEN MID OR HIGH LEVEL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUT THAT WAY BUT THESE HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE. THEREFORE
WILL JUST GO WITH SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT DOES LOOK MORE
STABLE THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE PCPN
AREA A LITTLE MORE AS THESE SHOWERS ARE IN A THIN BAND SO FAR AND
ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE PCPN. THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND THEN EASTWARD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAY ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM AXN TO
TVF. BAND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE OVER EASTERN ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST DISCUSSION WHICH STILL HOLDS.
GUIDANCE FROM MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA SO EXTENDED POPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED T POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE MAIN PCPN BAND WILL CROSS DVL MID
MORNING...VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVER THE NEXT TWO UPDATE PERIODS MONITORING FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMA
FORMING OVER S CENTRAL SD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SOME HIGH BASED ACCAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SOME RELATED
WEAK ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO 06Z. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS
BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS A BIT
EARLIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALL GOING AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN ERN ND/RRV. CLEAR SKY. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TRW- IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL PROB HAVE TO ADD THEM TO WED AM
12Z-18Z PERIOD AS WELL TO PARTS OF THE RRV/NW MN AS NEGATIVE
SHOWWALTERS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES 500 OR A BIT
HIGHER MOVE THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK








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