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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

2330z obs indicate sfc low just south of grand forks. HRRR model
moves this low north this evening and toward the Langdon/Cavalier
area by 12Z Thu. Main rain area north of this low has shifted into
Manitoba with lingering rain along the Canadian border Pembina
east to Baudette. Otherwise dry south of there. So did tweek pops
for this faster rain ending and break in precipitation currently.
Line of storms in central ND moving east but HRRR indicates storms
breaking up some as they move east toward eastern ND overnight but
still enough of a risk for a few showers or isold storm to
continue low chc pops. Will continue to tweek pops and sky as
needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main forecast challenge will be focusing on convective potential
thru this evening. As of mid afternoon, a surface low was located
over far southeast ND, surrounded by 60 dew points. Water vapor
imagery showed a nice short wave lifting northward through the
central Red River Valley. SPC meso page showed little or no bulk
shear in that area and relatively weak CAPE due to the lack of
heating today. However the non supercell tornado product
highlighted the area right around the sfc low, meaning if some of
the cells down there could take off they could produce some weak
funnels. However it seems like the stronger cells are a little
further south. They seem to be along a warm front, which extends
from the sfc low, down toward KAXN. This area managed to get some
temperatures up around 80 today and therefore a little more CAPE.
However these cells are moving NE and away from the richer CAPE.

A third area of development is back west of KBIS. There is some
sfc convergence there, with weak CAPE and a little better shear.
Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms
out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak
side. The storms back west of KBIS try to move eastward tonight
but should also weaken with loss of heating. Therefore with time
tonight most of the pcpn should move into southern Canada with the
echoes out by KBIS moving into the FA by early evening. Marginal
risk area is out of the FA on Day 2...with synoptic scale models
showing most of the FA staying dry. Areas along the Canadian
border may still see a little pcpn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday, blocking to the east will
result in either SW flow or a southerly flow. This will keep some
pcpn chances in the area, mainly during peak heating hours. Hard
to nail things down much more than that.

For Sat Night through Wed...An upper low will be departing the
area early over the weekend, making showers and/or thunderstorms
likely in the far east Saturday night. Models showing a short wave
ridge move through Sun into Mon and we should see a break in
activity but zonal flow will keep a series of weak waves coming
across the Northern Tier, so low POPs will be throughout the Sun-
Mon timeframe. SW flow aloft returns by Tuesday, with low pressure
over western ND brining increased chances of convection for the
middle portion of the week. Overall an active period will continue
through the long term, however temps will drop back into the low
70s mid next week after a warm Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Variety of conditions likely. Surface low south of Grand Forks
with a more west wind at Fargo while east-northeast elsewhere.
Surface low to move north tonight as winds eventually turn
northwest or west in GFK and DVL and more southerly at TVF and
BJI. Then winds more westerly at all areas daytime Thursday. Cloud
ceilings variable but mostly mvfr into Thursday DVL, GFK, BJI and
TVF and flirting with VFR or MVFR at FAR once clouds return from
the west. IFR cigs psbl at DVL and BJI late tonight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle





000
FXUS63 KFGF 251735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Rain area has filled in across most of the FA. Only spots not
seeing rain at the moment are from KCKN to KBJI and across the far
south. Most areas will now see a steady 0.25 or so of rain thru
the afternoon. Lots of cloud cover over northeast SD, so at this
point not expecting too much additional pcpn development later
this afternoon. Some of the high resolution models show some weak
development around and south of KBIS, which tries to move east
early this evening. Will look more at with the next forecast
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

MVFR cigs will accompany thunderstorms and, later in the day, light
rain showers, as a wave of showers and storms works its way from
south to north across the region.  Areas behind the precipitation
may continue to see some very light rain and cigs dropping into MVFR
tonight, but unless breaks in the sky occur before sun down, the
threat for TS is diminishing for the overnight period. Will keep
mention of CB in most sites through 02Z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher





000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Seeing quite a bit of shower and tstm activity across the FA this
morning, but the most extends along a line from KJMS to KAXN.
Seeing some cyclonic curl in this line, so its forward speed is
not all that quick. Ahead of this line some other clusters of
pcpn have developed too. One cluster is northwest of KBJI and
another is around KDVL. Models show the main line from KJMS to
KAXN lifting northward through the FA today, giving a wide 0.25 to
0.50 inch rainfall to most areas. After this line moves through,
will have to see how much clearing occurs. Will need to have some
clearing and heating to get additional tstm development this
afternoon. Best bet for any clearing at this point looks to be
across the southern FA. SPC has removed the slight risk area but a
marginal risk still exists across the southern third of the FA.
This matches well with the area that stands the best chance of
seeing sun later, but lots of ifs yet. Will continue to monitor
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

IFR cigs have moved westward into the far eastern zones. Otherwise
the rest of the area was VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions for today
except near storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes





000
FXUS63 KFGF 251159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Precip breaking up as it moves north. Updated the pops for current
radar trends. Otherwise no other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

IFR cigs have moved westward into the far eastern zones. Otherwise
the rest of the area was VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions for today
except near storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes





000
FXUS63 KFGF 250848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms should lift out of S Dakota and
into southeastern N Dakota during the mid morning hours Wednesday.
Activity will continue through most of the day, however outside of
TSRA on state conditions expected to be VFR until after 00Z
Thursday. Strongest storms will be in the afternoon hours and
across the southern valley.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main impacts through the short term will be next rain event
Wednesday-Wednesday night. Models in better agreement through
Wednesday with biggest differences in rain potential/placement in
later periods where guidance is all over the place.

Uncertainty continues with TSRA potential remainder of afternoon
into the evening. Surface wind field remains weak with minimal
upper support. There is modest instability/cape and no cap in
place over all but DVL Basin. Cu fields have been developing from
far SE ND into west central and northern MN so have some low pops
in this region as echoes begin to develop. Expect what ever
develops will weaken with loss of heating. Later tonight models
slower in lifting rain band northward with next wave so trimmed
back pops until closer to daybreak. Minimum temperatures should be
similar to last night.

More significant short wave and associated surface low will lift
NE Wednesday into the FA. Arcing band of shra/TSRA will lift
northward through the FA. Enough instability/cape and shear along
with low level convergence for severe storm potential. Feel there
will be enough clouds to hold temperatures into the 70s.

Best rain potential will shift into the northern FA Wednesday
night as low and wave lift north.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Low will wobble around the northern forecast area Thursday for
continued rain potential, mainly across the north. Uncertain about
coverage at this point so held with chance pops.

Unsettled weather continues into Friday as southern stream upper
low begins to lift northward.

As southern stream upper low lifts northward into the N central US
rain chances will continue into the holiday weekend. The best
potential looks to be Saturday surrounded by lesser rain chances.
Does not look like a wash for the weekend and any breaks in the
clouds will allow temperatures to recover into mainly the 70s.

Conditions begin to improve Mon-Tue as remnants of the upper low
lifts ne. Temperatures to remain at or a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wind speeds look to remain pretty light until Wednesday morning,
when they will take on more of a steady SE direction. Not much for
clouds out there now, but expect at least some mid level clouds to
move in later tonight into early Wednesday. At this point will leave
any clouds in the VFR range. Not a lot of confidence in the pcpn
forecast so have left VCSH for most locations by Wednesday morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Godon





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241420
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
920 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Adjusted pops across the eastern FA based on current radar trends.
No other changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends. The HRRR seems to have a
fairly good handle on what is currently going on so have our
current showers and thunderstorms moving off into northwestern MN
and weakening as the model indicates. Still think that there will
be some redevelopment later this afternoon as the next weak
shortwave comes through along with daytime heating, so have 20-30
POPs later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Convective chances and strength will continue to be the main
challenge for the short term.

Water vapor loop shows the main upper lows rotating over southern
Saskatchewan and the West Coast, with southwesterly flow aloft
into the Plains. One shortwave riding through the flow is
currently along the ND/SD border and bringing some showers with a
few claps of thunder into our western CWA. The short range models
all have this precip moving off into our northeastern CWA through
the morning. A very weak surface trough axis and boundary will
settle over the eastern counties by this afternoon. Afternoon
temps will rise into the 70s and 80s again today, and with dew
points near 50 moving back to the area, some CAPE values of around
1000 J/kg are possible by afternoon. With another weak shortwave
coming through, more storms could fire mainly near the boundary in
the eastern CWA. Not really expecting widespread severe weather,
but a few storms producing hail or damaging winds are possible.

Tonight, southwesterly flow aloft continues, and the models begin
to show a decent surface low starting to develop to our south,
with the surface low moving north into our area as the main upper
low over Saskatchewan begins to wobble eastward into the Northern
Plains. The surface low will lift northward across the Dakotas
towards the Canadian border by Wednesday afternoon. The NAM is
much faster and stronger with the surface low, but is an outlier
from the other deterministic models, so leaned towards the slower
solution. There does seem to be good agreement on precip entering
our southern counties during the early morning hours Wednesday,
moving northward throughout the day. North of the surface low
there will not be too much instability, but the GFS brings some
1500-2000 J/kg into our southern counties by afternoon as the
surface low center moves in. Some isolated severe is not out of
the question and there is a marginal risk for our southern
counties. With clouds and precip for a good chunk of the day went
a bit cooler for highs on Wednesday with low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday night through Thursday night...the surface low will pull
off to the north Wednesday night/Thursday, but with the upper low
continuing to rotate over the area precip will linger at least in
some areas. Continued to keep fairly high POPs Wednesday night
with a transition to mostly over the northern CWA as the low moves
north. However, kept some low POPs even over the southern CWA to
cover any redevelopment under the upper low. Temps will be
slightly above seasonal averages with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 70s.

Friday through Monday...Split flow remains across North America
with northern stream over central Canada and southern stream over
the states. Long wave over the western states with southwest flow
over the Northern Plains through much of the period. Ripples move
through the flow. After day 7, a long wave ridge axis is over the
area.

The GFS has been trending farther south while the ECMWF is
oscillating around. Models in reasonable agreement with the ECMWF
farther east solution than the GFS. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Fri. A degree or two lower for
Sat. A degree higher for Sun and one or two degrees higher for
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the area, so
have VCSH at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. These will move away or
dissipate by mid day but KTVF and KBJI could see some
redevelopment, so have a VCTS mention there after 20Z. All sites
will be VFR with mainly high and a bit of mid level clouds. Winds
will be light and variable for much of the period, with some more
gusts up above 20 kts near storms.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241150
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends. The HRRR seems to have a
fairly good handle on what is currently going on so have our
current showers and thunderstorms moving off into northwestern MN
and weakening as the model indicates. Still think that there will
be some redevelopment later this afternoon as the next weak
shortwave comes through along with daytime heating, so have 20-30
POPs later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Convective chances and strength will continue to be the main
challenge for the short term.

Water vapor loop shows the main upper lows rotating over southern
Saskatchewan and the West Coast, with southwesterly flow aloft
into the Plains. One shortwave riding through the flow is
currently along the ND/SD border and bringing some showers with a
few claps of thunder into our western CWA. The short range models
all have this precip moving off into our northeastern CWA through
the morning. A very weak surface trough axis and boundary will
settle over the eastern counties by this afternoon. Afternoon
temps will rise into the 70s and 80s again today, and with dew
points near 50 moving back to the area, some CAPE values of around
1000 J/kg are possible by afternoon. With another weak shortwave
coming through, more storms could fire mainly near the boundary in
the eastern CWA. Not really expecting widespread severe weather,
but a few storms producing hail or damaging winds are possible.

Tonight, southwesterly flow aloft continues, and the models begin
to show a decent surface low starting to develop to our south,
with the surface low moving north into our area as the main upper
low over Saskatchewan begins to wobble eastward into the Northern
Plains. The surface low will lift northward across the Dakotas
towards the Canadian border by Wednesday afternoon. The NAM is
much faster and stronger with the surface low, but is an outlier
from the other deterministic models, so leaned towards the slower
solution. There does seem to be good agreement on precip entering
our southern counties during the early morning hours Wednesday,
moving northward throughout the day. North of the surface low
there will not be too much instability, but the GFS brings some
1500-2000 J/kg into our southern counties by afternoon as the
surface low center moves in. Some isolated severe is not out of
the question and there is a marginal risk for our southern
counties. With clouds and precip for a good chunk of the day went
a bit cooler for highs on Wednesday with low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday night through Thursday night...the surface low will pull
off to the north Wednesday night/Thursday, but with the upper low
continuing to rotate over the area precip will linger at least in
some areas. Continued to keep fairly high POPs Wednesday night
with a transition to mostly over the northern CWA as the low moves
north. However, kept some low POPs even over the southern CWA to
cover any redevelopment under the upper low. Temps will be
slightly above seasonal averages with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 70s.

Friday through Monday...Split flow remains across North America
with northern stream over central Canada and southern stream over
the states. Long wave over the western states with southwest flow
over the Northern Plains through much of the period. Ripples move
through the flow. After day 7, a long wave ridge axis is over the
area.

The GFS has been trending farther south while the ECMWF is
oscillating around. Models in reasonable agreement with the ECMWF
farther east solution than the GFS. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Fri. A degree or two lower for
Sat. A degree higher for Sun and one or two degrees higher for
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the area, so
have VCSH at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. These will move away or
dissipate by mid day but KTVF and KBJI could see some
redevelopment, so have a VCTS mention there after 20Z. All sites
will be VFR with mainly high and a bit of mid level clouds. Winds
will be light and variable for much of the period, with some more
gusts up above 20 kts near storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Convective chances and strength will continue to be the main
challenge for the short term.

Water vapor loop shows the main upper lows rotating over southern
Saskatchewan and the West Coast, with southwesterly flow aloft
into the Plains. One shortwave riding through the flow is
currently along the ND/SD border and bringing some showers with a
few claps of thunder into our western CWA. The short range models
all have this precip moving off into our northeastern CWA through
the morning. A very weak surface trough axis and boundary will
settle over the eastern counties by this afternoon. Afternoon
temps will rise into the 70s and 80s again today, and with dew
points near 50 moving back to the area, some CAPE values of around
1000 J/kg are possible by afternoon. With another weak shortwave
coming through, more storms could fire mainly near the boundary in
the eastern CWA. Not really expecting widespread severe weather,
but a few storms producing hail or damaging winds are possible.

Tonight, southwesterly flow aloft continues, and the models begin
to show a decent surface low starting to develop to our south,
with the surface low moving north into our area as the main upper
low over Saskatchewan begins to wobble eastward into the Northern
Plains. The surface low will lift northward across the Dakotas
towards the Canadian border by Wednesday afternoon. The NAM is
much faster and stronger with the surface low, but is an outlier
from the other deterministic models, so leaned towards the slower
solution. There does seem to be good agreement on precip entering
our southern counties during the early morning hours Wednesday,
moving northward throughout the day. North of the surface low
there will not be too much instability, but the GFS brings some
1500-2000 J/kg into our southern counties by afternoon as the
surface low center moves in. Some isolated severe is not out of
the question and there is a marginal risk for our southern
counties. With clouds and precip for a good chunk of the day went
a bit cooler for highs on Wednesday with low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wednesday night through Thursday night...the surface low will pull
off to the north Wednesday night/Thursday, but with the upper low
continuing to rotate over the area precip will linger at least in
some areas. Continued to keep fairly high POPs Wednesday night
with a transition to mostly over the northern CWA as the low moves
north. However, kept some low POPs even over the southern CWA to
cover any redevelopment under the upper low. Temps will be
slightly above seasonal averages with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 70s.

Friday through Monday...Split flow remains across North America
with northern stream over central Canada and southern stream over
the states. Long wave over the western states with southwest flow
over the Northern Plains through much of the period. Ripples move
through the flow. After day 7, a long wave ridge axis is over the
area.

The GFS has been trending farther south while the ECMWF is
oscillating around. Models in reasonable agreement with the ECMWF
farther east solution than the GFS. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Fri. A degree or two lower for
Sat. A degree higher for Sun and one or two degrees higher for
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conds with isold storms north of TVF tonight and more isold
activity north along and north of I-94 tomorrow. Main aviation
concern will likely be sudden winds shifts due to outflows of any
storms that do approach aerodromes. GFK experiencing that right
now and winds should become more westerly to southerly by early
morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...Speicher





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest SPC convective outlook has shifted any stronger storm
potential well east of the forecast area so relayed this change on
social media. Otherwise adjusted cloud cover with clearing
spreading across the fa. Also trimmed back on pops based on latest
radar/satellite imagery and high resolution short range model
guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tweaked the diurnal temp curve for the morning. Otherwise no other
changes to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta
into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system.
Upper level system remains in the west most of the period but begins
to move out 12z Thu. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts
east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough
moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over
the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough.

Showalters are negative over the eastern zones today. Right rear
quadrant of north-south upper level jet remains over the area today
and shifts east tonight. Precip today is expected to shift east
today with the 700 theta-e gradient shifting east. Precipitable
water better than one inch dries out today only to increase back
over an inch by Wed.

Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in
aloft.

Coupled upper level jet is forecast for Wed. Low level jet will
support another round of rain on Wed/Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday through Sunday...The global models are in good general
agreement on a fairly active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft continues. Timing of
precip will depend on weak shortwaves moving through the flow, which
none of the models handle well. Thus, will keep the blended POPs
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms much of the period. The
southwesterly flow aloft will also keep temperatures above seasonal
averages throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Mostly VFR conditions were across the area. Cigs were mostly above 6
thousand ft. Some 35-45 hundred ft cigs were over west central MN.
Expect cigs to remain VFR for today and tonight. Cigs may fall to
the MVFR category in rain or thunder.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231204
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tweaked the diurnal temp curve for the morning. Otherwise no other
changes to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta
into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system.
Upper level system remains in the west most of the period but begins
to move out 12z Thu. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts
east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough
moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over
the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough.

Showalters are negative over the eastern zones today. Right rear
quadrant of north-south upper level jet remains over the area today
and shifts east tonight. Precip today is expected to shift east
today with the 700 theta-e gradient shifting east. Precipitable
water better than one inch dries out today only to increase back
over an inch by Wed.

Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in
aloft.

Coupled upper level jet is forecast for Wed. Low level jet will
support another round of rain on Wed/Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thurday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday through Sunday...The global models are in good general
agreement on a fairly active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft continues. Timing of
precip will depend on weak shortwaves moving through the flow, which
none of the models handle well. Thus, will keep the blended POPs
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms much of the period. The
southwesterly flow aloft will also keep temperatures above seasonal
averages throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Mostly VFR conditions were across the area. Cigs were mostly above 6
thousand ft. Some 35-45 hundred ft cigs were over west central MN.
Expect cigs to remain VFR for today and tonight. Cigs may fall to
the MVFR category in rain or thunder.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes





000
FXUS63 KFGF 230859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta
into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system.
Upper level system remains in the west most of the period but begins
to move out 12z Thu. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts
east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough
moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over
the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough.

Showalters are negative over the eastern zones today. Right rear
quadrant of north-south upper level jet remains over the area today
and shifts east tonight. Precip today is expected to shift east
today with the 700 theta-e gradient shifting east. Precipitable
water better than one inch dries out today only to increase back
over an inch by Wed.

Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in
aloft.

Coupled upper level jet is forecast for Wed. Low level jet will
support another round of rain on Wed/Wed night.


.LONG TERM...(Thurday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday through Sunday...The global models are in good general
agreement on a fairly active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft continues. Timing of
precip will depend on weak shortwaves moving through the flow, which
none of the models handle well. Thus, will keep the blended POPs
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms much of the period. The
southwesterly flow aloft will also keep temperatures above seasonal
averages throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

South winds will gust up to 30 kts this afternoon with increasing
mainly lower VFR clouds, although some ceilings may be MVFR at
times, especially at KDVL. Any showers should be isolated today.
Better chances for showers and storms tonight, with the highest
chances at KDVL during the early to mid evening, late evening into
early morning at KFAR/KGFK/KTVF and then late night at KBJI. Some
ceilings down at or below MVFR thresholds possible tonight before
sites trend VFR on Monday with winds becoming westerly.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Makowski





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