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000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 030409
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT UNTIL 18Z FRI...AND
IT REALLY LOOKS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AND THE FOURTH FOR THE MOST
PART. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 030409
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WE WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT UNTIL 18Z FRI...AND
IT REALLY LOOKS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AND THE FOURTH FOR THE MOST
PART. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 030227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 030227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 022338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND SMOKE. THE
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED IN NORTHEAST ND...WITH MANY AREAS
2-5SM...WITH WINNIPEG AT 2SM IN SMOKE. SMOKE IS VERY THICK ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL...AND WILL ADD SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS IN
NORTHEAST ND AND MONITOR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 022338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND SMOKE. THE
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED IN NORTHEAST ND...WITH MANY AREAS
2-5SM...WITH WINNIPEG AT 2SM IN SMOKE. SMOKE IS VERY THICK ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL...AND WILL ADD SOME SMOKE TO THE GRIDS IN
NORTHEAST ND AND MONITOR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBYS AT KDVL AND IT COULD THICKEN AT NORTHERN
SITES THIS EVENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHEAST ND 2-5SM. WILL
ADD SOME SMOKE TO GRIDS IN THE NORTH...WITH SOME VCTS FOR GFK/TVF.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS HAVE
PULSED UP BUT NOT REACHED SEVERE AND ARE SLOW MOVING. CAM MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 03Z OR SO. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF ML CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THAT REGION WILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CANADA. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH AS DISSIPATED.

TOMORROW...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVEN SOME NAM CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG DOES NOT SEE OUT OF THE QUESTION. LIKE
TODAY...SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE.
INCLUDED SOME 30-40 POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE
BY THE LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING...BUT THINK THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EXACTLY HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT DEPENDS ON HOW ANY
MORNING ACTIVITY BEHAVES AND WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO SOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR IS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED SOME
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BEGINNING TO COOL OFF INTO THE 70S AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL ENJOY DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND A PERIOD OF MID WEEK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM PEMBINA COUNTY
DOWN TOWARDS EDDY. WITH LITTLE SHEAR THE CELLS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING AND NOT LASTING LONG. UPDATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THROUGH AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH SEVERE GIVEN THE PULSE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM PEMBINA COUNTY
DOWN TOWARDS EDDY. WITH LITTLE SHEAR THE CELLS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING AND NOT LASTING LONG. UPDATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THROUGH AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH SEVERE GIVEN THE PULSE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021453
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021453
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021453
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 021145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 021145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020840
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR PATCHY GROUND FOG/HAZE
AND OR SMOKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
STORMS NEARLY ANY PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION NOW. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY THU AND SHIFT
WESTERLY INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020840
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR PATCHY GROUND FOG/HAZE
AND OR SMOKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
STORMS NEARLY ANY PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION NOW. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY THU AND SHIFT
WESTERLY INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020413
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS UNTIL 12Z...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND SMOKE. THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT SEEM FAIRLY SLIM...BUT WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR PATCHY GROUND FOG/HAZE
AND OR SMOKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
STORMS NEARLY ANY PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION NOW. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY THU AND SHIFT
WESTERLY INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020413
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS UNTIL 12Z...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND SMOKE. THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT SEEM FAIRLY SLIM...BUT WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN THE FAR WEST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR PATCHY GROUND FOG/HAZE
AND OR SMOKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
STORMS NEARLY ANY PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION NOW. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY THU AND SHIFT
WESTERLY INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 020214
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 10KT FOR THE MOST PART.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 020214
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 10KT FOR THE MOST PART.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AND FOG POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE MT THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MISS ALL BUT THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT. THERE
AREA FEW SHOWERS NEAR KBJI NEAR SOME WEAK SFC MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME VERY SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG. WON/T MENTION FOR NOW WITH
BUFKIT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL...AND SMOKE IS GETTING A
BIT THICKER THAT COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 10KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AND FOG POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE MT THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MISS ALL BUT THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT. THERE
AREA FEW SHOWERS NEAR KBJI NEAR SOME WEAK SFC MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME VERY SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG. WON/T MENTION FOR NOW WITH
BUFKIT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL...AND SMOKE IS GETTING A
BIT THICKER THAT COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 10KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AND FOG POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE MT THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MISS ALL BUT THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT. THERE
AREA FEW SHOWERS NEAR KBJI NEAR SOME WEAK SFC MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME VERY SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG. WON/T MENTION FOR NOW WITH
BUFKIT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL...AND SMOKE IS GETTING A
BIT THICKER THAT COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN AT OR
UNDER 10KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND AND PROPAGATE SE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AS
WAVE APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W-SW WILL BE LIKELY AFT
MIDNIGHT AS FEATURE PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY MINIMUMS MAY BE A BIT
WARMER.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE FAR W/SW TOMORROW AM WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING.
THINNER SMOKE SHIELD TODAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
WARMER HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE THICKER SMOKE LAYER UPSTREAM WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR NORTHERN FA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED LOW END POPS ALONG BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAK WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS.

BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRONGER INDEPENDENCE DAY SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER. ALSO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY
SO SMOKE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING HIGHLY ON
CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WITH SHORT WAVES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LATE INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THUNDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN THE 6 TO 12Z TIME FRAME...SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH FOR 4TH
CELEBRATIONS TO NOT BE IMPACTED. 12Z EC SUGGESTS A WIDE SPREAD AREA
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH NORMAL UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SMOKE NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS IN PAST DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A BIT MORE. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS. NEAREST ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN STILL IN N CENTRAL MT SO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SMOKE NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS IN PAST DAYS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A BIT MORE. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS. NEAREST ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN STILL IN N CENTRAL MT SO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. TRIMMED
BACK POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TSTORM TO DRIFT NEAR DVL OVERNIGHT BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALTHOUGH SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE DID TRIM BACK ON CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THE ENTIRE FA WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH ANY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...AND WILL LET A FEW MORE HRRR RUNS COME IN TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK ON POPS AGAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THIS FA) WILL BE TOWARD 12Z THUR ACROSS SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES NOT EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VSBY BELOW
6SM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWERED...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR (IF THEY DID COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED
ANYWAY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE N RRV EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE N RRV EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FARTHER WEST...AND DID
INCLUDE VICINTY SHOWERS AT KDVL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF ANY PRECIP GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARDS KGFK/KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT MORE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED MORE THAN
EXPECTED. PCPN CONTINUES TO DRY UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN
BORDER SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT MOST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS PCPN TONIGHT AS WELL SO WILL LIKELY
BE TRIMMING BACK ON PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. OVERALL
LOOKING PRETTY LIGHT IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT MORE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED MORE THAN
EXPECTED. PCPN CONTINUES TO DRY UP AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN
BORDER SO WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT MOST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS PCPN TONIGHT AS WELL SO WILL LIKELY
BE TRIMMING BACK ON PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. OVERALL
LOOKING PRETTY LIGHT IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

K DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING SFC VSBY ANY LONGER.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA COULD
REACH INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO T
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL SOME HAZE/FOG BEING REPORTED...BUT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE FILTERED SUN TO THE
EAST. SMOKE LAYER IS BEING MASKED BY OTHER CLOUDS TODAY BUT IT IS
STILL THERE. ONLY UPDATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO REMOVE ANY PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL SOME HAZE/FOG BEING REPORTED...BUT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MORE FILTERED SUN TO THE
EAST. SMOKE LAYER IS BEING MASKED BY OTHER CLOUDS TODAY BUT IT IS
STILL THERE. ONLY UPDATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO REMOVE ANY PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SMOKE/HAZE TODAY. FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT AS UPPER FLOW IS THE SAME AS MONDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AS
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH OVER UTAH. WEAK SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CNTRL/WRN ND CAUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER JUST WEST OF FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL
KEEP PATTERN PRETTY STABLE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST ONLY SLOWLY ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO ERN ND TODAY THRU
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MOST OF NW MN TO BE DRY.  GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT SO DID PUSH THE
POPS A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
(WRFS) WOULD SAY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVES AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN WITH BEST BET FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION. DID KEEP LOWER POPS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW/WCNTRL MN AS AREA IS ON THE
FENCE BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER NW ONTARIO AND WETTER CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO INDICATE NW FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA. THE STRONGEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (ECMWF ABOUT
12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO START THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 14Z...ONLY BRIEFING IMPACTING TAF SITES GFK
AND FAR. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY...PREDOMINATELY
NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
SMOKE STILL PRESENT THRU THE DAY HOWEVER MAKING CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




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