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000
FXUS63 KFGF 291436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVERALL. ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST FA. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE SUN TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10
KTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVERALL. ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST FA. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE SUN TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10
KTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWEAKED PATCHY FOG GRIDS AS ONLY A FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND ONLY VERY BRIEFLY. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10
KTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR









000
FXUS63 KFGF 290818
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290818
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CU HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...AND CURRENT
FORECAST SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK (CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINT
VALUES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 290442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CU HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...AND CURRENT
FORECAST SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK (CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINT
VALUES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290227
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CU HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...AND CURRENT
FORECAST SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK (CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINT
VALUES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED VFR CU EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED VFR CU EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED VFR CU EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281727
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281727
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STILL HAVE A PERSISTENT 6000FT CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THINKING IT SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER CUMULUS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CUMULUS AROUND LATER TUE MORNING. LOOKING AT STEADY NW
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT CALM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281144
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 281144
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS STUCK AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. RAP RH
FIELDS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING
THEN DECREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 70S BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLOUDS OF AROUND 6000 FT HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THINK THAT KBJI
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER AT KTVF...KGFK...AND KFAR. THINK THEY SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND
STAY LESS THAN 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280813
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280813
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE STAYING AWAKE AS THE
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TOWARDS THE BORING.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE EAST SETS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND NORTH
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM PERSISTS IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIP
CLIPPING THE LAKE OF THE WOOD AREA. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINK WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
CENTER OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BUT WITH A BIT MORE WIND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GET TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.

THURSDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND THUS DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEWPOINTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE FA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE ISO POCKETS OF CHC FOR THUNDER AS
A RIDGE RIDER COULD BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SKY IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF ERN
ND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SKY IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF ERN
ND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING CONTINUES TO BE SKY
COVER TRENDS. SWIR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CWA (LAKES VISIBLE) AND EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN.
RUC H850 TO H700 RH FIELD HAS DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS...SO USED
ESTF EXTRAPOLATE TOOL WITH RUC GUIDANCE FOR HOURLY SKY GRIDS THROUGH
12Z. LOOKING FOR MOST OF CWA TO BE CLEARED OUT BE 09Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TIMING DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY VIS SAT SHOWING MOST OF AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST BUT HERE IN GRAND FORKS...SKIES BECOMING MUCH BRIGHTER AS
CLOUD LAYER THINS. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME BUT OVERALL WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS AND
READJUST AT 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 272000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STILL HAVE PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHRINKAGE ALONG ITS EDGES. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IS STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
HIT AND MISS BUT MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL NOT EXTEND THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. AS NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS START TO THIN TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE YET. SAME STORY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

850MB TEMPS RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUE INTO WED SO
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOO. FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH REGION IN MID
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE AND WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS ARE STAYING PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL INCREASE
CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS ARE STAYING PRETTY THICK ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL INCREASE
CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270746
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE STILL AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NW MN/EXTREME
NORTHEAST ND. WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NW
MN...AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING DOWN
OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH RAIN ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE STILL AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NW MN/EXTREME
NORTHEAST ND. WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NW
MN...AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING DOWN
OVERNIGHT...WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH RAIN ANYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270311
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES DYING AFTER AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES DYING AFTER AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONDITIONS COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ONCE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND
15-20KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A CLAP OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261959
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FA AS
UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN DROPS SE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO DLH BY MORNING. BEST CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BUT WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHC POPS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WHERE MORE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE EXISTS. WILL PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THIS AREA REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING.
WITH CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUD COVER FEEL MOST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY CATCH
IS THAT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS DEEPER MOISTURE INVOLVED. AS THE LOW DROPS SE LATER
TONIGHT THIS FEATURE MAY LINGER SOME SHOWERS LONGER. WITH
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR INTO THE 50S.

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH MOIST
LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY SHRA SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
MUCH WARMER.

SHOWERS END SUNDAY EVENING AS ALL FORCING EXITS TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A BIT BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON








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