000
FXUS63 KFGF 192344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOCUS ON SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON TWEAKING POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG A LINE OF WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS AND FILL IN MOST OF MY NORTH EAST. SHOWERS OVER
MY NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THETA E ADVECTION SHIFTS MORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. ONE ISSUE IN THIS AREA WILL BE WINDS...AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND H850 WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS ARE HELPING MIX SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SFC...BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT ONE KNOT UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 KTS TO 40 KTS. WILL
KEEP LOWER POPS BUT STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND
(MY SW ZONES) AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND SFC LOW IS MINIMAL. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS MORE ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN MN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. WILL
BE HARDEST AREA TO NAIL DOWN TIMING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH.  BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND.  ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN.  GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN.  NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

HAVE ADDED BRIEF PERIOD OF TSTMS TO BJI AND TVF AS LINE OF STORMS
INITIATING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH. NOT SURE OF TSTMS WILL MAKE IT OVER TO GFK BUT
SHOWERS WILL. REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR FAR AS STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WELL TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO INCREASE NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER DVL AS SHOWERS ARE CREATING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30+ KT
RANGE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS ARE INSTABILITY DECREASES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
800 AM HAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SAW FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN DOES FALL...IT MAY
PUSH SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN BACK ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. NCRFC MODEL INPUTS BRING SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AND RATE OF RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE RIVER POINTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH RESPECT TO
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF RISES...AND HAVE BEEN COVERED BY A FLOOD
WATCH. THE NEW RIVER POINT FORECASTS ALSO BRING EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO AND CROOKSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SINCE THE FORECAST
DOES NOT BRING LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...ISSUED A NEW RIVER FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE POINTS AS
WELL. WILL MONITOR RIVER STAGES CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS AS REQUIRED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 192031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH.  BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND.  ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN.  GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN.  NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

EXPECT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR-LOW END MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO SEE HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE DRY SLOT WILL GET INTO WESTERN MN AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA
SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS.  SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INTO FARGO
AREA LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO COULD LEAD TO SOME EVE TSTMS.  REST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.  AS FOR PRECIP DO
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP AT GFK-TVF-BJI IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT BATCH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.  BUT TIMING THE PRECIP BREAK ALWAYS SUSPECT.  DVL REGION
MOST PRONE TO REMAIN IN IFR AND RAIN THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF NO RAIN IS PSBL THERE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LESS
CERTAIN.  WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT MOST SITES...BUT MAY TURN
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AT FARGO AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH AS SFC LOW
WOBBLES TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BTWN BIS/ABR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
800 AM HAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SAW FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN DOES FALL...IT MAY
PUSH SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN BACK ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. NCRFC MODEL INPUTS BRING SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AND RATE OF RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE RIVER POINTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH RESPECT TO
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF RISES...AND HAVE BEEN COVERED BY A FLOOD
WATCH. THE NEW RIVER POINT FORECASTS ALSO BRING EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO AND CROOKSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SINCE THE FORECAST
DOES NOT BRING LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...ISSUED A NEW RIVER FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE POINTS AS
WELL. WILL MONITOR RIVER STAGES CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS AS REQUIRED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

STEADY RAIN HAS WORKED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
NOW. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPS DOWN SO
WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A BIT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
OTHERWISE THE SFC LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT
ARCHING UP TO SOUTH OF KFAR AND THEN SOUTHEAST DOWN TOWARD
STAPLES. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OF COURSE
WHERE THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE BIT OF SUN POKING THROUGH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE SOUTH/SE OF THE FA AND RIDING UP AND
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER MOST
OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

EXPECT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR-LOW END MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO SEE HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE DRY SLOT WILL GET INTO WESTERN MN AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA
SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS.  SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INTO FARGO
AREA LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO COULD LEAD TO SOME EVE TSTMS.  REST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.  AS FOR PRECIP DO
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP AT GFK-TVF-BJI IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT BATCH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.  BUT TIMING THE PRECIP BREAK ALWAYS SUSPECT.  DVL REGION
MOST PRONE TO REMAIN IN IFR AND RAIN THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF NO RAIN IS PSBL THERE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LESS
CERTAIN.  WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT MOST SITES...BUT MAY TURN
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AT FARGO AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH AS SFC LOW
WOBBLES TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BTWN BIS/ABR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA NOW AND SHOULD SLOWLY PINWHEEL AROUND THE
FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH PCPN LEFT NOW CLOSEST TO THE
ACTUAL LOW...WHICH MEANS SOUTHEAST ND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN MAY BE DONE WITH PCPN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN. IF THUNDER FORMS DOWN IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...MEANING IT WOULD GET DRAWN UP INTO OUR FA. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR MORE ACTIVITY WORKING UP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
THEN UP AND AROUND INTO OTHER AREAS OF NORTHWEST MN AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER
12Z GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CIGS MAINLY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA AND
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3
OF FA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
IFR VSBY IN FOG CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN FA...BJI TAF SITE BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AM. MORE SHRA/TSRA ON TAP
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 191202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ARC OF RA AND ISOLD T CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FA WITH
A GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. RAIN FREE AREA LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FA BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THIS WILL GET.
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADDRESS RAIN FREE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EXPANDED HIGHER POPS FARTHER NORTH. HELD PAT WITH REMAINDER
OF FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT ALOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CIGS MAINLY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA AND
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3
OF FA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
IFR VSBY IN FG CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN FA...BJI TAF SITE BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AM. MORE SHRA/TSRA ON TAP
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT ALOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

LIFR AFFECTING KBJI SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190453
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THOUGHTS REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT DID UPDATE POPS
BASED ON LATEST HRRR. HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE ND. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH INSTABILITY AROUND
MUCAPE 1000 J/KG AND FORCING TO INCREASE HERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS SLOWING DOWN
(WAS MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS AN HOUR AGO...NOW MOVING AROUND 10
KNOTS). THIS IS CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT ALSO MEANS THAT
THIS COMPLEX MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE FA. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY HALTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX. 01Z HRRR STALLS THIS COMPLEX AND ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT APPEARS THAT IT WILL COME FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH INTENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL
APPEARS LIMITED FOR THIS FA. THE STORMS JUST WEST OF THE FA ARE
SEVERE...BUT THE SLOWING MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THESE STORMS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR LATER TONIGHT IS ONLY AROUND 25-30
KNOTS...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY FLASH FLOOD/HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT ALONG WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WILL
MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS...BUT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED IF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST FALLS APART
BEFORE THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ALL EYES ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN-EVE IN SE
ND-WCNTRL MN. SFC MAP SHOWS A BROAD SFC LOW IN THE MOBRIDGE SD
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY (COULD BE CALLED A WARM FRONT) FROM MOBRIDGE
TO OAKES THEN TO VALLEY CITY THEN TO HILLSBORO THEN EAST TO NORTH
OF DTL-PKD-BRD THEN INTO FAR NW WISCONSIN. IN FAR SE ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WCNTRL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TODAY FOR SFC
HEATING AND TEMPS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CUMULUS CLOUD BOUNDARY FROM HILLSBORO TO
ALONG CLAY-NORMAN CO LINE TO NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. SOUTH WINDS
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE NR 10-13 KTS WHILE NORTH WINDS 5-8 KTS
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. SPC SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR. BUT UPPER LEVELS DONT SHOW ANY BIG THING TO
SET STUFF OFF. 17-18Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW ONE CELL TRYING
TO GET GOING IN NORMAN CO. MN 22-23Z PD BUT THEN IT DISSIPATES
THIS EVE.

MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD HAS SEEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND DEW PTS IN THE
50S AND SPC DOES HAVE SOME SFC BASED CIN IN THIS REGION. THUS MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE. BUT HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME ACTIVITY AXN-STC AREA BY 03Z.

ALSO SOME STORMS NR BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD. SOME WRF MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA ORGANIZING MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SE ND-WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. SO VARIOUS
SCENERIOS TO PLAY OUT.

OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF SOME ACTIVITY THIS EVE IN
ND/SD/MN BORDER REGIONS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
HOUR IS LOW. ALSO QPF AMOUNT IS NOT CERTAIN. PLUS ONLY AREA THAT
MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS EASTERN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH NRN WILKIN-SE CLAY INTO WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS AREA COULD TAKE THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WERE MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH
UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR OUR FCST AREA.

MODELS ACTUALLY BRING IN HIGHER PWAT (1.6) INTO AREA SUN AFTN-NIGH IN
GENERAL RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SD AND THIS IS IN WHEN
MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THUS IF TRUE...GIVES
US TIME TO SEE WHAT FALLS THIS EVE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
KEPT HIGH POPS SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPR LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE OVER SRN SD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO ND/NW MN MON-TUES PERIOD WITH
GENERAL RAINFALL. KEPT POPS HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN
BEGINNING TO MOVE THE STACKED NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EWD
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE
TAPPERING OFF OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-EASTERLY
BLAYER WINDS. INTRUDING DRY AIR FROM WRN ONT SHUD LEAD TO MARKEDLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD CLOVER WED EVENING. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WRN ONT AND THE LK SUPERIOR AREA ON THURS AND FRI SHUD SWING
WINDS FROM THE SOOUH EAST AND KEEP AN OVERALL DRYING AIRMASS OVR
THE RRV AND MOST OF MINNESOTA. A WARMIG RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASED
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FA BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

LIFR AFFECTING KBJI SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WHEN NCRFC RAN THE MODEL TODAY USING 24 HOUR QPF IT BROUGHT SEVERAL
POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE FARGO/SABIN/DILWORTH/HAWLEY
AND HENDRUM. SINCE THESE RISES ARE BASED ON FORECAST PCPN WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A RIVER POINT FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE 5 POINTS. THE FORECAST
QPF ALSO BROUGHT WAHPETON/EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SO ISSUED RIVER STATEMENTS ON THESE. ONLY DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA REMAIN IN A FLOOD STATEMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GUST
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190306
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS SLOWING DOWN
(WAS MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS AN HOUR AGO...NOW MOVING AROUND 10
KNOTS). THIS IS CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT ALSO MEANS THAT
THIS COMPLEX MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE FA. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY HALTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX. 01Z HRRR STALLS THIS COMPLEX AND ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT APPEARS THAT IT WILL COME FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH INTENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL
APPEARS LIMITED FOR THIS FA. THE STORMS JUST WEST OF THE FA ARE
SEVERE...BUT THE SLOWING MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THESE STORMS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR LATER TONIGHT IS ONLY AROUND 25-30
KNOTS...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY FLASH FLOOD/HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT ALONG WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WILL
MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS...BUT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED IF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST FALLS APART
BEFORE THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ALL EYES ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN-EVE IN SE
ND-WCNTRL MN. SFC MAP SHOWS A BROAD SFC LOW IN THE MOBRIDGE SD
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY (COULD BE CALLED A WARM FRONT) FROM MOBRIDGE
TO OAKES THEN TO VALLEY CITY THEN TO HILLSBORO THEN EAST TO NORTH
OF DTL-PKD-BRD THEN INTO FAR NW WISCONSIN. IN FAR SE ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WCNTRL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TODAY FOR SFC
HEATING AND TEMPS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CUMULUS CLOUD BOUNDARY FROM HILLSBORO TO
ALONG CLAY-NORMAN CO LINE TO NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. SOUTH WINDS
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE NR 10-13 KTS WHILE NORTH WINDS 5-8 KTS
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. SPC SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR. BUT UPPER LEVELS DONT SHOW ANY BIG THING TO
SET STUFF OFF. 17-18Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW ONE CELL TRYING
TO GET GOING IN NORMAN CO. MN 22-23Z PD BUT THEN IT DISSIPATES
THIS EVE.

MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD HAS SEEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND DEW PTS IN THE
50S AND SPC DOES HAVE SOME SFC BASED CIN IN THIS REGION. THUS MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE. BUT HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME ACTIVITY AXN-STC AREA BY 03Z.

ALSO SOME STORMS NR BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD. SOME WRF MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA ORGANIZING MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SE ND-WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. SO VARIOUS
SCENERIOS TO PLAY OUT.

OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF SOME ACTIVITY THIS EVE IN
ND/SD/MN BORDER REGIONS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
HOUR IS LOW. ALSO QPF AMOUNT IS NOT CERTAIN. PLUS ONLY AREA THAT
MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS EASTERN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH NRN WILKIN-SE CLAY INTO WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS AREA COULD TAKE THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WERE MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH
UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR OUR FCST AREA.

MODELS ACTUALLY BRING IN HIGHER PWAT (1.6) INTO AREA SUN AFTN-NIGH IN
GENERAL RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SD AND THIS IS IN WHEN
MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THUS IF TRUE...GIVES
US TIME TO SEE WHAT FALLS THIS EVE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
KEPT HIGH POPS SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPR LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE OVER SRN SD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO ND/NW MN MON-TUES PERIOD WITH
GENERAL RAINFALL. KEPT POPS HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN
BEGINNING TO MOVE THE STACKED NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EWD
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE
TAPPERING OFF OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-EASTERLY
BLAYER WINDS. INTRUDING DRY AIR FROM WRN ONT SHUD LEAD TO MARKEDLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD CLOVER WED EVENING. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WRN ONT AND THE LK SUPERIOR AREA ON THURS AND FRI SHUD SWING
WINDS FROM THE SOOUH EAST AND KEEP AN OVERALL DRYING AIRMASS OVR
THE RRV AND MOST OF MINNESOTA. A WARMIG RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASED
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FA BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

IFR/LIFR CIGS AFFECTING KBJI AND KDVL...WITH MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
KTVF AND KGFK...AS THESE SITE ARE WITHIN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
NOT IF THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE SITES...WHICH SHOULD BRIEFLY RAISE CIGS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING. FOR
KFAR...EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO INCRASE BY MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WHEN NCRFC RAN THE MODEL TODAY USING 24 HOUR QPF IT BROUGHT SEVERAL
POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE FARGO/SABIN/DILWORTH/HAWLEY
AND HENDRUM. SINCE THESE RISES ARE BASED ON FORECAST PCPN WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A RIVER POINT FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE 5 POINTS. THE FORECAST
QPF ALSO BROUGHT WAHPETON/EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SO ISSUED RIVER STATEMENTS ON THESE. ONLY DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA REMAIN IN A FLOOD STATEMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GUST
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 190016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE SITUATION FOR TONIGHT IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. THERE
IS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHICH HAS INITIATED
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT IS HEADING TO THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITHIN BECKER COUNTY ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA
ALONG ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE COMPLEX
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH WILL GROW IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA (GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY). UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING (ISOLATED THIS EVENING WITH POPS INCREASING).

OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...WITH THE BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WHERE MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN COMPLEX HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMPLEX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOWING AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SURE IF
THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BY THE TIME IT ENTERS SE ND...BUT WILL
MONITOR.

ALSO STILL NOT SURE ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND THE SPEED OF THESE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ATTEMPT TO DETERMINE IF HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT DURATION IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST NOT SURE IF THE STORMS WILL
BE MOVING SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ALL EYES ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN-EVE IN SE
ND-WCNTRL MN. SFC MAP SHOWS A BROAD SFC LOW IN THE MOBRIDGE SD
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY (COULD BE CALLED A WARM FRONT) FROM MOBRIDGE
TO OAKES THEN TO VALLEY CITY THEN TO HILLSBORO THEN EAST TO NORTH
OF DTL-PKD-BRD THEN INTO FAR NW WISCONSIN. IN FAR SE ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WCNTRL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TODAY FOR SFC
HEATING AND TEMPS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CUMULUS CLOUD BOUNDARY FROM HILLSBORO TO
ALONG CLAY-NORMAN CO LINE TO NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. SOUTH WINDS
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE NR 10-13 KTS WHILE NORTH WINDS 5-8 KTS
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. SPC SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR. BUT UPPER LEVELS DONT SHOW ANY BIG THING TO
SET STUFF OFF. 17-18Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW ONE CELL TRYING
TO GET GOING IN NORMAN CO. MN 22-23Z PD BUT THEN IT DISSIPATES
THIS EVE.

MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD HAS SEEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND DEW PTS IN THE
50S AND SPC DOES HAVE SOME SFC BASED CIN IN THIS REGION. THUS MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE. BUT HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME ACTIVITY AXN-STC AREA BY 03Z.

ALSO SOME STORMS NR BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD. SOME WRF MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA ORGANIZING MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SE ND-WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. SO VARIOUS
SCENERIOS TO PLAY OUT.

OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF SOME ACTIVITY THIS EVE IN
ND/SD/MN BORDER REGIONS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
HOUR IS LOW. ALSO QPF AMOUNT IS NOT CERTAIN. PLUS ONLY AREA THAT
MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS EASTERN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH NRN WILKIN-SE CLAY INTO WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS AREA COULD TAKE THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WERE MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH
UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR OUR FCST AREA.

MODELS ACTUALLY BRING IN HIGHER PWAT (1.6) INTO AREA SUN AFTN-NIGH IN
GENERAL RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SD AND THIS IS IN WHEN
MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THUS IF TRUE...GIVES
US TIME TO SEE WHAT FALLS THIS EVE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
KEPT HIGH POPS SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPR LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE OVER SRN SD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO ND/NW MN MON-TUES PERIOD WITH
GENERAL RAINFALL. KEPT POPS HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN
BEGINNING TO MOVE THE STACKED NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EWD
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE
TAPPERING OFF OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-EASTERLY
BLAYER WINDS. INTRUDING DRY AIR FROM WRN ONT SHUD LEAD TO MARKEDLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD CLOVER WED EVENING. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WRN ONT AND THE LK SUPERIOR AREA ON THURS AND FRI SHUD SWING
WINDS FROM THE SOOUH EAST AND KEEP AN OVERALL DRYING AIRMASS OVR
THE RRV AND MOST OF MINNESOTA. A WARMIG RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASED
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FA BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

IFR/LIFR CIGS AFFECTING KBJI AND KDVL...WITH MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
KTVF AND KGFK...AS THESE SITE ARE WITHIN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
NOT IF THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE SITES...WHICH SHOULD BRIEFLY RAISE CIGS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING. FOR
KFAR...EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO INCRASE BY MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WHEN NCRFC RAN THE MODEL TODAY USING 24 HOUR QPF IT BROUGHT SEVERAL
POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE FARGO/SABIN/DILWORTH/HAWLEY
AND HENDRUM. SINCE THESE RISES ARE BASED ON FORECAST PCPN WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A RIVER POINT FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE 5 POINTS. THE FORECAST
QPF ALSO BROUGHT WAHPETON/EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SO ISSUED RIVER STATEMENTS ON THESE. ONLY DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA REMAIN IN A FLOOD STATEMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GUST
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 182014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ALL EYES ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN-EVE IN SE
ND-WCNTRL MN. SFC MAP SHOWS A BROAD SFC LOW IN THE MOBRIDGE SD
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY (COULD BE CALLED A WARM FRONT) FROM MOBRIDGE
TO OAKES THEN TO VALLEY CITY THEN TO HILLSBORO THEN EAST TO NORTH
OF DTL-PKD-BRD THEN INTO FAR NW WISCONSIN. IN FAR SE ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WCNTRL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TODAY FOR SFC
HEATING AND TEMPS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CUMULUS CLOUD BOUNDARY FROM HILLSBORO TO
ALONG CLAY-NORMAN CO LINE TO NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. SOUTH WINDS
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE NR 10-13 KTS WHILE NORTH WINDS 5-8 KTS
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. SPC SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR. BUT UPPER LEVELS DONT SHOW ANY BIG THING TO
SET STUFF OFF. 17-18Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW ONE CELL TRYING
TO GET GOING IN NORMAN CO. MN 22-23Z PD BUT THEN IT DISSIPATES
THIS EVE.

MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD HAS SEEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND DEW PTS IN THE
50S AND SPC DOES HAVE SOME SFC BASED CIN IN THIS REGION. THUS MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE. BUT HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME ACTIVITY AXN-STC AREA BY 03Z.

ALSO SOME STORMS NR BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD. SOME WRF MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA ORGANIZING MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SE ND-WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. SO VARIOUS
SCENERIOS TO PLAY OUT.

OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF SOME ACTIVITY THIS EVE IN
ND/SD/MN BORDER REGIONS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
HOUR IS LOW. ALSO QPF AMOUNT IS NOT CERTAIN. PLUS ONLY AREA THAT
MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS EASTERN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH NRN WILKIN-SE CLAY INTO WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS AREA COULD TAKE THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WERE MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH
UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR OUR FCST AREA.

MODELS ACTUALLY BRING IN HIGHER PWAT (1.6) INTO AREA SUN AFTN-NIGH IN
GENERAL RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SD AND THIS IS IN WHEN
MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THUS IF TRUE...GIVES
US TIME TO SEE WHAT FALLS THIS EVE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
KEPT HIGH POPS SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPR LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE OVER SRN SD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO ND/NW MN MON-TUES PERIOD WITH
GENERAL RAINFALL. KEPT POPS HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN
BEGINNING TO MOVE THE STACKED NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EWD
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE
TAPPERING OFF OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-EASTERLY
BLAYER WINDS. INTRUDING DRY AIR FROM WRN ONT SHUD LEAD TO MARKEDLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD CLOVER WED EVENING. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WRN ONT AND THE LK SUPERIOR AREA ON THURS AND FRI SHUD SWING
WINDS FROM THE SOOUH EAST AND KEEP AN OVERALL DRYING AIRMASS OVR
THE RRV AND MOST OF MINNESOTA. A WARMIG RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASED
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FA BY
SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ACROSS NERN ND AND NRWN MN...AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ALG AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2 WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SHIFT NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE LATE
EVENING. ACROSS SERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN...AREAS OF LIFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ALG AND EAST OF AN AXN-BJI LINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT MVFR CIGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN RRV WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SFC HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSTMS /WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/ FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WHEN NCRFC RAN THE MODEL TODAY USING 24 HOUR QPF IT BROUGHT SEVERAL
POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE FARGO/SABIN/DILWORTH/HAWLEY
AND HENDRUM. SINCE THESE RISES ARE BASED ON FORECAST PCPN WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A RIVER POINT FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE 5 POINTS. THE FORECAST
QPF ALSO BROUGHT WAHPETON/EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SO ISSUED RIVER STATEMENTS ON THESE. ONLY DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA REMAIN IN A FLOOD STATEMENT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GUST
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181819
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
119 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. NO MODEL REALLY HINTED AT THIS MUCH FROM 00Z AND
12Z RUNS. REST OF AREA DRY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME CLEARING IN SE
ND WORKING NORTH A BIT...AND IN THIS CLEAR AREA TEMPS IN THE 77 TO
80 DEGREE RANGE FROM TENNEY-WAHPETON TO FARGO-VALLEY CITY. DEW PTS
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THIS AREA. IT IS THIS AREA
WHICH WILL SEE CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG LATE TODAY...AND COULD SEE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SPC WRF SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT FAR-DTL 22Z-
00Z WHEREAS HRRR SHOWS IT MORE AXN-BRD REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
SHOW THIS INCREASE IN POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 22Z.
DISC WITH WFO DLH/MPX WILL HOLD OFF ANY FFA FOR NOW HAS HEAVIEST
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING-LAST NIGHT WAS AXN-STC-BRD REGION
JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY POSITIONS TODAY.

ARC OF WEAKENING CONVECTION LIFTING NE THROUGH FA AT 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL ATTEMPT TO ADJUST/TIME POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. WITH WARM COLUMN ANY BREAKS
WILL REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES.

LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH TO SHARPEN
ACROSS FA PROVIDING GOOD SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOUGH TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE HOWEVER REGION COMES UNDER
ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST JET STREAK WHICH WILL AID IN UPPER
SUPPORT. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG TROUGH AS WELL AS POSITION OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATING GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX WITH 60
DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 BY EVENING. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA AND LOOKS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME CAPPING MAY INITIALLY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW POSITION TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT AS CLEAR CUT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT INTO MN. TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON BACK SIDE
OF INVERTED TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CUT OFF LOW TAKES OVER AND DRIFTS ACROSS E SD INTO S MN TO START WORK
WEEK FOR CONTINUED MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BEGIN TO SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GEM SLOWER IN ENDING THE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ACROSS NERN ND AND NRWN MN...AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ALG AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2 WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SHIFT NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE LATE
EVENING. ACROSS SERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN...AREAS OF LIFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ALG AND EAST OF AN AXN-BJI LINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT MVFR CIGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN RRV WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SFC HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSTMS /WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/ FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181552
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1052 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO GO DRY THROUGH LATE AFTN IN SE ND INTO
WCNTRL MN. TEMPS SOMEWHAT OF AN ISSUE AND LOWERED A BIT ESP NRN
ZONES WHERE LOW 60S IN LANGDON-CANDO MAY BE ALL THAT CAN BE DONE.
KEPT HIGH POPS FAR NRN FCST AREA IN NE ND/NW MN WITH SHOWERS
MOVING THRU. STILL THINKING LOWER 80S OR SO FAR SE ND...BUT
DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUN. LATEST HRRR/RAP ALL INDICATE MAIN WARM
FRONT AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN 22Z-00Z
PERIOD AND THEN MAYBE LIFTING NORTH INTO SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY POSITIONS TODAY.

ARC OF WEAKENING CONVECTION LIFTING NE THROUGH FA AT 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL ATTEMPT TO ADJUST/TIME POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. WITH WARM COLUMN ANY BREAKS
WILL REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES.

LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH TO SHARPEN
ACROSS FA PROVIDING GOOD SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOUGH TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE HOWEVER REGION COMES UNDER
ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST JET STREAK WHICH WILL AID IN UPPER
SUPPORT. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG TROUGH AS WELL AS POSITION OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATING GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX WITH 60
DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 BY EVENING. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA AND LOOKS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME CAPPING MAY INITIALLY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW POSITION TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT AS CLEAR CUT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT INTO MN. TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON BACK SIDE
OF INVERTED TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CUT OFF LOW TAKES OVER AND DRIFTS ACROSS E SD INTO S MN TO START WORK
WEEK FOR CONTINUED MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BEGIN TO SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GEM SLOWER IN ENDING THE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WITH SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY CIGS VARY GREATLY. CIGS GENERALLY BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS IN BR BUT NOT LIMITED TO WITHIN RAIN BAND.
EXPECT CONDITION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHRA LIFT
NORTHWARD. COULD SEE MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181157
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

BAND OF MAINLY SHRA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
SLOWER MOVEMENT AND WENT PRIMARILY SHRA WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLD T.
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CAPPING MAY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY POSITIONS TODAY.

ARC OF WEAKENING CONVECTION LIFTING NE THROUGH FA AT 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL ATTEMPT TO ADJUST/TIME POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. WITH WARM COLUMN ANY BREAKS
WILL REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES.

LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH TO SHARPEN
ACROSS FA PROVIDING GOOD SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOUGH TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE HOWEVER REGION COMES UNDER
ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST JET STREAK WHICH WILL AID IN UPPER
SUPPORT. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG TROUGH AS WELL AS POSITION OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATING GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX WITH 60
DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 BY EVENING. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA AND LOOKS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME CAPPING MAY INITIALLY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW POSITION TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT AS CLEAR CUT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT INTO MN. TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON BACK SIDE
OF INVERTED TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CUT OFF LOW TAKES OVER AND DRIFTS ACROSS E SD INTO S MN TO START WORK
WEEK FOR CONTINUED MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BEGIN TO SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GEM SLOWER IN ENDING THE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WITH SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY CIGS VARY GREATLY. CIGS GENERALLY BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS IN BR BUT NOT LIMITED TO WITHIN RAIN BAND.
EXPECT CONDITION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHRA LIFT
NORTHWARD. COULD SEE MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY POSITIONS TODAY.

ARC OF WEAKENING CONVECTION LIFTING NE THROUGH FA AT 30KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL ATTEMPT TO ADJUST/TIME POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS. WITH WARM COLUMN ANY BREAKS
WILL REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES.

LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH TO SHARPEN
ACROSS FA PROVIDING GOOD SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOUGH TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SHORT WAVE HOWEVER REGION COMES UNDER
ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST JET STREAK WHICH WILL AID IN UPPER
SUPPORT. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG TROUGH AS WELL AS POSITION OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS INDICATING GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX WITH 60
DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF FA. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 BY EVENING. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
CAPE ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA AND LOOKS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME CAPPING MAY INITIALLY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW POSITION TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOT AS CLEAR CUT.

INVERTED TROUGH TO DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL PUT HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT INTO MN. TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON BACK SIDE
OF INVERTED TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CUT OFF LOW TAKES OVER AND DRIFTS ACROSS E SD INTO S MN TO START WORK
WEEK FOR CONTINUED MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BEGIN TO SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GEM SLOWER IN ENDING THE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CEILINGS HAVE GONE DOWN TO MVFR AT KFAR AND THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO KFAR AREA AROUND 07-08Z WITH SOME THUNDER
REMAINING AND CONTINUING NORTH AS MOSTLY SHOWERS LATER ON THIS
MORNING. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE NORTHERN SITES WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM FRONT
AND STAY SOCKED IN. KFAR HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE READINGS HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
AROUND 50 AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT TEMPS ALREADY AT
FORECAST LOWS. RADAR SHOWS THAT STORMS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK TO
ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD. SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF POPS AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ADJUSTED POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TIMING. STORMS FIRING
ALONG THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN CENTRAL MN WILL CLIP OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO INCLUDED A SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. STORMS FIRING OVER WESTERN ND AND SD WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. IF CURRENT MOTION HOLDS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE AT
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TWEAKED TIMING OF POPS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH LIKELY WORDING TRANSITIONING FROM THE SOUTH
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. ELEVATED CAP
VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS.
THINK THAT THE BEST LLJ WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT SO WILL JUST KEEP GENERAL THUNDER GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ADJUSTED POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS RESERVED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GOING FORECAST HAS.
TWEAKED CLOUDS TO INCLUDE CLEARING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHOULD BE TOTALLY CLOUDY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT STILL
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS.

WEST COAST TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE REGION. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE...BUT THE MODELS DO
OFFER A COUPLE STRONGER SIGNALS. THE FIRST BEST CHANCE IS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD (1243PM).
18Z HRRR DOES INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA AFTER 06Z...ALONG WITH WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH UP TO 0.5
INCH AREAL QPF POSSIBLE.

THINKING THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/GFS BRING THIS
FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS (LIKELY BECAUSE THEY
ARE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA). AT ANY
RATE...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE CORRECT IDEA INDICATING MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER BY THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWATS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA). THIS RAINFALL WOULD OVER A COUPLE DAYS
AND ANY FLOOD THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SD/MN REGION TUESDAY THEN
DRIFTING A BIT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED HIGH THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING ON WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BIT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN TUE-
WED THEN RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CEILINGS HAVE GONE DOWN TO MVFR AT KFAR AND THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO KFAR AREA AROUND 07-08Z WITH SOME THUNDER
REMAINING AND CONTINUING NORTH AS MOSTLY SHOWERS LATER ON THIS
MORNING. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE NORTHERN SITES WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WARM FRONT
AND STAY SOCKED IN. KFAR HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180228
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ADJUSTED POPS/WX BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TIMING. STORMS FIRING
ALONG THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN CENTRAL MN WILL CLIP OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO INCLUDED A SCATTERED MENTION FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. STORMS FIRING OVER WESTERN ND AND SD WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. IF CURRENT MOTION HOLDS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE AT
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TWEAKED TIMING OF POPS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH LIKELY WORDING TRANSITIONING FROM THE SOUTH
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. ELEVATED CAP
VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS.
THINK THAT THE BEST LLJ WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT SO WILL JUST KEEP GENERAL THUNDER GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ADJUSTED POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS RESERVED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GOING FORECAST HAS.
TWEAKED CLOUDS TO INCLUDE CLEARING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHOULD BE TOTALLY CLOUDY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT STILL
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS.

WEST COAST TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE REGION. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE...BUT THE MODELS DO
OFFER A COUPLE STRONGER SIGNALS. THE FIRST BEST CHANCE IS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD (1243PM).
18Z HRRR DOES INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA AFTER 06Z...ALONG WITH WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH UP TO 0.5
INCH AREAL QPF POSSIBLE.

THINKING THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/GFS BRING THIS
FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS (LIKELY BECAUSE THEY
ARE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA). AT ANY
RATE...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE CORRECT IDEA INDICATING MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER BY THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWATS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA). THIS RAINFALL WOULD OVER A COUPLE DAYS
AND ANY FLOOD THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SD/MN REGION TUESDAY THEN
DRIFTING A BIT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED HIGH THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING ON WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BIT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN TUE-
WED THEN RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST LATER ON TONIGHT. HAVE KFAR DECREASING TO MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE OTHER SITES MORE TOWARDS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AROUND KFAR WHILE THE NORTHERN SITES
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP. FOR NOW HAVE IT GOING PAST OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT AND LEAVE THEM IN EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE RAIN. THINK
THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST SITES
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR

000
FXUS63 KFGF 172352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ADJUSTED POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS RESERVED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GOING FORECAST HAS.
TWEAKED CLOUDS TO INCLUDE CLEARING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHOULD BE TOTALLY CLOUDY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT STILL
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS.

WEST COAST TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE REGION. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE...BUT THE MODELS DO
OFFER A COUPLE STRONGER SIGNALS. THE FIRST BEST CHANCE IS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD (1243PM).
18Z HRRR DOES INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA AFTER 06Z...ALONG WITH WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH UP TO 0.5
INCH AREAL QPF POSSIBLE.

THINKING THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/GFS BRING THIS
FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS (LIKELY BECAUSE THEY
ARE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA). AT ANY
RATE...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE CORRECT IDEA INDICATING MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER BY THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWATS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA). THIS RAINFALL WOULD OVER A COUPLE DAYS
AND ANY FLOOD THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SD/MN REGION TUESDAY THEN
DRIFTING A BIT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED HIGH THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING ON WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BIT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN TUE-
WED THEN RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST LATER ON TONIGHT. HAVE KFAR DECREASING TO MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE OTHER SITES MORE TOWARDS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AROUND KFAR WHILE THE NORTHERN SITES
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP. FOR NOW HAVE IT GOING PAST OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT AND LEAVE THEM IN EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE RAIN. THINK
THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST SITES
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR

000
FXUS63 KFGF 172045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT STILL
ENOUGH DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS.

WEST COAST TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE REGION. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE...BUT THE MODELS DO
OFFER A COUPLE STRONGER SIGNALS. THE FIRST BEST CHANCE IS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD (1243PM).
18Z HRRR DOES INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA AFTER 06Z...ALONG WITH WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH UP TO 0.5
INCH AREAL QPF POSSIBLE.

THINKING THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/GFS BRING THIS
FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS (LIKELY BECAUSE THEY
ARE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA). AT ANY
RATE...GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE CORRECT IDEA INDICATING MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD BE SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND
BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER BY THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWATS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA). THIS RAINFALL WOULD OVER A COUPLE DAYS
AND ANY FLOOD THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SD/MN REGION TUESDAY THEN
DRIFTING A BIT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED HIGH THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING ON WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BIT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN TUE-
WED THEN RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE MVFR CLOUDS
SPREAD DURING THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION
(THUNDER) CHANCES.  THRU 00Z FORSEE ALL SITES STAYING VFR..BUT
WATCHING AN AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH 25-35K FT CLOUD
DECK MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST FROM WCNTRL MN AND ECNTRL SD.  TIMING
OF THIS MOVEMENT NORTHWEST INTO FARGO AREA IS SUSPECT...BUT LATEST
RAP MODEL SUGGEST 03Z-06Z PERIOD.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE
OTHER TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.  PRECIP (THUNDER) CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WHEN/HOW IT AFFECTS ANY TAF SITE IS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE NOW.  FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
FARGO AS BEST CHANCE APPEARS THERE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEAST MOSTLY 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW FA WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES INTO CANADA.
CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA...AND
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS AREA ARE NOW INTO THE 70S. THE TREND OF
BECOMING CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
INCREASED MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITHIN THE CLEAR
AREA...AND SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS AREA BECOMING
CLOUDY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT. FOLLOWING
THE LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE AND 12Z NAM/GFS...THERE WILL BE A
SURGE OF INSTABILITY AS 850MB WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASE (ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT). THIS WILL HAPPEN CLOSER TO
03Z-06Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE RAP INDICATES 850MB CAPE ABOVE
1000 J/KG ALONG WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL (SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
IS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY). THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH...BUT THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND EXIT THE NORTHERN FA SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED THE GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THIS THINKING (AND WILL
CONCENTRATE ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER ALL DIFFER
ON QPF SCENARIOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT WILL USE A
GENERAL BLEND.

PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND H7 CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS ABOVE FEATURES WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POP/LOW QPF INTO MID MORNING THEN TRIM BACK ON POPS.
ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW AND E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
SD/NE BORDER INTO IA LIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MOST PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. WILL INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME
THINNER CLOUD COVER EXISTS OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
AND BY MID EVENING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREAS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED AREAS FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS NORTHERN AREAS STILL PRETTY STABLE. BAND OF PCPN
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS FA SATURDAY SO INCREASED
POPS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. INITIALLY FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS S HALF OF FA LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY OF FA POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT FOR
SURE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

0 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
CLOSED 500 HPA LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD MONDAY MORNING CRAWLING
PAINFULLY SLOW TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRMLY ENTRENCHES
THE FORECAST AREA IN WRAP-AROUND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...
SLOWLY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-MAY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH
GREATER SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS...SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS REACHING
70 DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE MVFR CLOUDS
SPREAD DURING THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION
(THUNDER) CHANCES.  THRU 00Z FORSEE ALL SITES STAYING VFR..BUT
WATCHING AN AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH 25-35K FT CLOUD
DECK MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST FROM WCNTRL MN AND ECNTRL SD.  TIMING
OF THIS MOVEMENT NORTHWEST INTO FARGO AREA IS SUSPECT...BUT LATEST
RAP MODEL SUGGEST 03Z-06Z PERIOD.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE
OTHER TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.  PRECIP (THUNDER) CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WHEN/HOW IT AFFECTS ANY TAF SITE IS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE NOW.  FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
FARGO AS BEST CHANCE APPEARS THERE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEAST MOSTLY 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...VOELKER/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY. THERE IS
AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL CLIP THE NW FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. ALSO UPDATED THE SKY TO
INDICATE A PERIOD OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...AND THERE IS A SHARP
GRADIENT FROM 30F DEWPOINTS TO 50F DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE FA THROUGH THE
DAY AND INCREASE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. NO BIG CHANGES TO MAX
TEMPS...BUT WE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR SOME AREAS THAT SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF SOLAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER ALL DIFFER
ON QPF SCENARIOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT WILL USE A
GENERAL BLEND.

PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND H7 CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS ABOVE FEATURES WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POP/LOW QPF INTO MID MORNING THEN TRIM BACK ON POPS.
ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW AND E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
SD/NE BORDER INTO IA LIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MOST PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. WILL INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME
THINNER CLOUD COVER EXISTS OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
AND BY MID EVENING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREAS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED AREAS FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS NORTHERN AREAS STILL PRETTY STABLE. BAND OF PCPN
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS FA SATURDAY SO INCREASED
POPS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. INITIALLY FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS S HALF OF FA LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY OF FA POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT FOR
SURE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

0 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
CLOSED 500 HPA LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD MONDAY MORNING CRAWLING
PAINFULLY SLOW TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRMLY ENTRENCHES
THE FORECAST AREA IN WRAP-AROUND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...
SLOWLY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-MAY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH
GREATER SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS...SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS REACHING
70 DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CLIP THE DVL AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FEEL ANY SHRA/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST LOWER CIGS WILL GET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...VOELKER/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A MAJORITY OF THE SHRA HAVE
LIFTED NE AS FORCING WEAKENED. STILL A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA OVER
CENTRAL ND WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTH SO MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS THERE.
CLEARING SPREADING INTO SW FA. NOT SURE HOW FAR E CLEARING WILL
GET BUT DID DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY. WITH CLEARING AND NOT MUCH HAPPENING UPSTREAM ALSO CUT
POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. DEGREE OF SOLAR WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS POINT WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTH IN LINE WITH LESS CLOUDS LEFT VALUES AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER ALL DIFFER
ON QPF SCENARIOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT WILL USE A
GENERAL BLEND.

PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND H7 CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS ABOVE FEATURES WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POP/LOW QPF INTO MID MORNING THEN TRIM BACK ON POPS.
ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW AND E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
SD/NE BORDER INTO IA LIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MOST PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. WILL INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME
THINNER CLOUD COVER EXISTS OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
AND BY MID EVENING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREAS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED AREAS FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS NORTHERN AREAS STILL PRETTY STABLE. BAND OF PCPN
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS FA SATURDAY SO INCREASED
POPS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. INITIALLY FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS S HALF OF FA LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY OF FA POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT FOR
SURE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

0 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
CLOSED 500 HPA LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD MONDAY MORNING CRAWLING
PAINFULLY SLOW TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRMLY ENTRENCHES
THE FORECAST AREA IN WRAP-AROUND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...
SLOWLY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-MAY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH
GREATER SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS...SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS REACHING
70 DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CLIP THE DVL AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FEEL ANY SHRA/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST LOWER CIGS WILL GET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...VOELKER/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER ALL DIFFER
ON QPF SCENARIOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS POINT WILL USE A
GENERAL BLEND.

PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND H7 CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS ABOVE FEATURES WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POP/LOW QPF INTO MID MORNING THEN TRIM BACK ON POPS.
ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW AND E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
SD/NE BORDER INTO IA LIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH SD DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MOST PCPN WILL BE ORIENTED CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. WILL INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME
THINNER CLOUD COVER EXISTS OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
AND BY MID EVENING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREAS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED AREAS FOR SHRA/TSRA. BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS NORTHERN AREAS STILL PRETTY STABLE. BAND OF PCPN
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS FA SATURDAY SO INCREASED
POPS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. INITIALLY FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS S HALF OF FA LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY OF FA POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT FOR
SURE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

0 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
CLOSED 500 HPA LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD MONDAY MORNING CRAWLING
PAINFULLY SLOW TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRMLY ENTRENCHES
THE FORECAST AREA IN WRAP-AROUND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...
SLOWLY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOST INSTABILITY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-MAY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH
GREATER SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS...SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS REACHING
70 DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING LIGHT RA OVER
KDVL...KGFK...AND KTVF WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AND POSSIBLY FURTHER
EAST.  WINDS WILL STAY EAST AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...VOELKER/ROGERS
AVIATION...JR

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

BAND OF PRECIP ALONG HIGHWAY 2 HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS HAS DECREASED. TRENDED DOWNWARD SLOWLY WITH POPS
OVER THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH HAS
STAYED WELL CLEAR OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN BORDERS...SO LOWERED POPS
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO/WY
CONTINUES TO BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. STILL THINK THAT OUR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIP HAS MOVED A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTATIONS SO ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY.
KEPT LIKELIES GOING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THEN STARTED
TO DROP THEM DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO THE CENTRAL
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH SPRINKLES
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM AND RAP ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMPLEX OVER SD/MN
GETS GOING AND ROBS MOISTURE. KEPT HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO BETTER PERCENTAGES IN THE SOUTH
LATER ON TONIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST AS READINGS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT TO ALLOW IT TO GET DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING PROLONGED WET PATTERN TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM/GFS ARE A
GOOD COMPROMISE IN THE NEAR TERM.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY
STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AS PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF STRONGER
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THAT SHOULD ROB THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
IN THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY WITH STRONGER ECHOES
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE LARGER SCALE SHOWERS
WITH EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC INCREASING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP IN SD AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH 850MB CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE ND...NEAR
THE EDGE OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MLCAPES ARE PROGGED OVER
4000 J/KG INTO NC SD...AND AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SE ND. EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN SD ONCE THE CAP BREAKS...AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR
EVEN A BIT HIGHER. WE HAVE ISSUED AN ESF FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE IF TRAINING ECHOES OCCUR WITH A PARALLEL UPPER
BOUNDARY.

SAME SCENARIO IN PLACE FOR EXTENDED...AFTER A WEEKEND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER AN AREA ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO IOWA. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
TRANSPORTED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUING
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER. ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MAKE MONDAY THE MORE
LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDER ACTIVITY...LESS SO ON TUESDAY AND BY
WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY OR EVEN JUST SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN. GOING POP FREE FINALLY BY THURSDAY AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE RIDGE PART OF THE
BLOCK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING LIGHT RA OVER
KDVL...KGFK...AND KTVF WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDVL AND POSSIBLY FURTHER
EAST.  WINDS WILL STAY EAST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RED RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE RIVER LEVELS
UNDERGO RECESSION AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. THIS IS THE LAST REMNANT
OF THE SNOWMELT WATER SURGE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DESPITE SOME RAINFALL INFILTRATION
DUE TO PATCHY DRY TOPSOIL...ENOUGH RUNOFF MAY OCCUR TO CAUSE SOME
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...BRAMER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO/WY
CONTINUES TO BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. STILL THINK THAT OUR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIP HAS MOVED A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTATIONS SO ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY.
KEPT LIKELIES GOING FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THEN STARTED
TO DROP THEM DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO THE CENTRAL
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH SPRINKLES
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM AND RAP ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMPLEX OVER SD/MN
GETS GOING AND ROBS MOISTURE. KEPT HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO BETTER PERCENTAGES IN THE SOUTH
LATER ON TONIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST AS READINGS
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT TO ALLOW IT TO GET DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING PROLONGED WET PATTERN TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM/GFS ARE A
GOOD COMPROMISE IN THE NEAR TERM.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY
STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AS PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF STRONGER
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THAT SHOULD ROB THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
IN THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY WITH STRONGER ECHOES
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE LARGER SCALE SHOWERS
WITH EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC INCREASING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP IN SD AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH 850MB CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT LEAST IN THE
SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE ND...NEAR
THE EDGE OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MLCAPES ARE PROGGED OVER
4000 J/KG INTO NC SD...AND AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SE ND. EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN SD ONCE THE CAP BREAKS...AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR
EVEN A BIT HIGHER. WE HAVE ISSUED AN ESF FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE IF TRAINING ECHOES OCCUR WITH A PARALLEL UPPER
BOUNDARY.

SAME SCENARIO IN PLACE FOR EXTENDED...AFTER A WEEKEND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS...UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER AN AREA ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO IOWA. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
TRANSPORTED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUING
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER. ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MAKE MONDAY THE MORE
LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDER ACTIVITY...LESS SO ON TUESDAY AND BY
WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY OR EVEN JUST SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN. GOING POP FREE FINALLY BY THURSDAY AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE RIDGE PART OF THE
BLOCK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
MVFR CLOUDS COMING IN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW
KEPT MVFR MENTION JUST AT KDVL. RAIN HAS BEEN PLAYING HAVOC ON THE
WINDS WITH KFAR BEING QUITE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH. THINK THAT
THINGS SHOULD CALM DOWN AND GO BACK TO THE GRADIENT EASTERLIES
LATER ON THIS EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RED RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE RIVER LEVELS
UNDERGO RECESSION AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. THIS IS THE LAST REMNANT
OF THE SNOWMELT WATER SURGE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DESPITE SOME RAINFALL INFILTRATION
DUE TO PATCHY DRY TOPSOIL...ENOUGH RUNOFF MAY OCCUR TO CAUSE SOME
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...BRAMER