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000
FXUS63 KFGF 202110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PLAN TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. OTHERWISE
FOG SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT THIS POINT WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FURTHEST WEST COUNTIES.
MAY HAVE TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THRU THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SIGN OF SOME IMPROVEMENT SEEMS TO BE THE
CLEAR HOLE JUST WEST OF KJMS WHICH SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD.
THIS MAY CLIP WESTERN BENSON COUNTY BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT YET.
OTHERWISE CUT TEMPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE KDVL REGION AND CONTINUED
THE FOG MENTION EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF PCPN FROM KBIS TO KJMS BUT
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PLAN TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. OTHERWISE
FOG SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT THIS POINT WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FURTHEST WEST COUNTIES.
MAY HAVE TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THRU THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SIGN OF SOME IMPROVEMENT SEEMS TO BE THE
CLEAR HOLE JUST WEST OF KJMS WHICH SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD.
THIS MAY CLIP WESTERN BENSON COUNTY BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT YET.
OTHERWISE CUT TEMPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE KDVL REGION AND CONTINUED
THE FOG MENTION EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF PCPN FROM KBIS TO KJMS BUT
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IF ANYTHING AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 201600
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES THAT GO UNTIL NOON FOR MOST OF
THE FA. COMING IN AT 8 AM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
USE WIND SHIELD WIPERS. CURRENTLY IT SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A MIST.
MADE CALLS TO SEVERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTERS WHO SAID CONDITIONS
WERE NOT TOO BAD...ONE MENTIONED MIST TOO AND ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN
SLIPPERY FOR A FEW DAYS. SINCE ADVISORY ONLY GOES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO LET IT GO UNTIL THEN.

ANOTHER THIN BAND OF ECHOES IS APPROACHING THE KBIS/KMOT AREAS AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR FA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. AT
THE MOMENT IT APPEARS VERY THIN AND IS MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO
MAY BE ABLE TO DELAY ITS ONSET INTO OUR WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FA AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. VSBY MAY IMPROVE IN SPOTS BUT OVERALL KEPT CIGS AT LEAST
IN IFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201600
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES THAT GO UNTIL NOON FOR MOST OF
THE FA. COMING IN AT 8 AM THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
USE WIND SHIELD WIPERS. CURRENTLY IT SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A MIST.
MADE CALLS TO SEVERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTERS WHO SAID CONDITIONS
WERE NOT TOO BAD...ONE MENTIONED MIST TOO AND ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN
SLIPPERY FOR A FEW DAYS. SINCE ADVISORY ONLY GOES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO LET IT GO UNTIL THEN.

ANOTHER THIN BAND OF ECHOES IS APPROACHING THE KBIS/KMOT AREAS AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR FA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. AT
THE MOMENT IT APPEARS VERY THIN AND IS MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO
MAY BE ABLE TO DELAY ITS ONSET INTO OUR WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FA AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. VSBY MAY IMPROVE IN SPOTS BUT OVERALL KEPT CIGS AT LEAST
IN IFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ZL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FA AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. VSBY MAY IMPROVE IN SPOTS BUT OVERALL KEPT CIGS AT LEAST
IN IFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ZL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FA AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. VSBY MAY IMPROVE IN SPOTS BUT OVERALL KEPT CIGS AT LEAST
IN IFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200924
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. DO HAVE LOWER VSBY AND BR...WHICH SHOULD COVER
THIS ASPECT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200924
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCES/PHASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MB/ONTARIO BORDER AREA.

NEXT WAVE GETTING READY TO ENTER NW FA WITH ANOTHER SLATED FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FROM MODEL TIME SECTIONS MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND FORCING WEAK SO LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED MAINLY
FZDZ/FLURRY THREAT. UPSTREAM BRANDON REPORTING FZDZ SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING ONLY MINOR
RECOVERY EXPECTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NE FA CLOSER
TO FAVORED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING -SN ACROSS THE FAR NE SUNDAY AM OTHERWISE
BRUNT OF DAY SHOULD BE DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

STRONGER WAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL US WITH
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND TRACKS BUT
LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL ISSUES STARTING
LATER ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES POINTING
AT MAINLY SNOW VS MIX BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH SFC
FEATURES/LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
BY CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING STRONGER SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE GFS WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. MILD TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. DO HAVE LOWER VSBY AND BR...WHICH SHOULD COVER
THIS ASPECT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. DO HAVE LOWER VSBY AND BR...WHICH SHOULD COVER
THIS ASPECT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. DO HAVE LOWER VSBY AND BR...WHICH SHOULD COVER
THIS ASPECT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS DLH AND MPX...DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY
ROADS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT
ROSEAU...MICHIGAN...CAVALIER...AND MINTO. THERE ARE USUALLY OTHER
AREAS RECEIVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE NEVER HEAR ABOUT. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT. IN FACT...BRANDON MANITOBA HAS
REPORTED FZDZ THE PAST HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE NUCLEI IS VERY
LOW...SO THIS LIFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL (AND POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD) FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS UNDER RADAR RETURNS NOW (WC MN) ARE RECEIVING
A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT DO DRY ALOFT AND WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE
FZDZ LATER. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLEY CITY TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS SINCE THEY ARE FURTHER FROM
THE UPPER WAVES INFLUENCE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG...SO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE (AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS WC MN).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS -SN ACCORDING
TO REPORTS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING
AND SATURATED COLUMN. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE -SN ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...EXPECTED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHERE/IF IT CAN BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS. RECEIVED ONLY ONE REPORT OF ICY
ROADS. IR SATELLITE DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY (AT LEAST WHERE WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS) BY WHERE TEMP IS LESS THAN -10C...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS VERY ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WIDESPREAD HAZARD IS LOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH VISIBILITIES
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG CONSIDERING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. ATTM VSBY IS ACTUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST
SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABILITIES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192133
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVELENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 SM HOWEVER GOING DOWN TO 1 SM TO 3 SM
IN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191842
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NO FURTHER CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO UPDATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT AM FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE GRUNGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 SM HOWEVER GOING DOWN TO 1 SM TO 3 SM
IN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191842
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NO FURTHER CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO UPDATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT AM FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE GRUNGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 SM HOWEVER GOING DOWN TO 1 SM TO 3 SM
IN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191616
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1016 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MOSTLY 1-3SM TYPE) OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...BUT
QUITE LIGHT AND SO FAR NOT A TRAVEL CONCERN. SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING
MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA FROM BISMARCK AREA THIS AFTN
BUT OTHERWISE FAIL TO SEE ANY CHANGE SO EXPANDED FOG/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION INTO THE AFTN FOR MOST AREAS. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
IN BAUDETTE-WASKISH AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191616
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1016 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MOSTLY 1-3SM TYPE) OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL IN MANY SPOTS...BUT
QUITE LIGHT AND SO FAR NOT A TRAVEL CONCERN. SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING
MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA FROM BISMARCK AREA THIS AFTN
BUT OTHERWISE FAIL TO SEE ANY CHANGE SO EXPANDED FOG/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION INTO THE AFTN FOR MOST AREAS. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
IN BAUDETTE-WASKISH AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
732 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING BASED ON SOME EARLY MORNING REPORTS AND METARS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
732 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING BASED ON SOME EARLY MORNING REPORTS AND METARS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190916
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190916
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190527
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KDVL.
WILL MONITOR EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE LIFR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190205
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

RECEIVED A REPORT OF FZDZ AROUND THE STARKWEATHER AREA (JUST NORTH
OF DEVILS LAKE). IT WAS LIGHT...AND VERY PATCHY (NO FZDZ IN DEVILS
LAKE)...BUT DID CAUSE THE SPOTTER TO SLOW DOWN A BIT. THERE ARE
LIKELY PATCHY AREAS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
AREAS OF SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS (AND THUS FZDZ). FZDZ HAS JUST
BEEN REPORTED IN BISMARCK AS WELL...AND WITH MANY AREAS BEGINNING
TO INDICATE LOWER VSBY...WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES/PATCHY
FZDZ MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AGAIN...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A
HAZARD CONSIDERING THE PATCHY COVERAGE AND BRIEF DURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 190040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DO NOT FORESEE THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BE STEADY...AND
RAISED THE MIN TEMP ACCORDINGLY.

THE BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ENTERING SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA STARTS
AS A FINE MIST...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES FLURRIES (WITH LARGER
FLAKES!)...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO EYE WITNESS REPORTS. NOTHING HAS
ACCUMULATED TO THE WEST THAT WOULD LEAD TO A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO...AND WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES RIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 182325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 182325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 182135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLOY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 182135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLOY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST...THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THE NAM MOS DATA
SUPPORT CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVES AS WELL. SOME CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 500 FT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM MOS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED CIGS
THIS LOW YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA TO
SEE IF THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 181601
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY. AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND THEN
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THIS AFTN.
ALSO GOT A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOWER STRATOCU MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NE-ECNTRL MN AND ITS HEADED TOWARD
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE. ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF FLURRIES IN THIS CLOUD AREA...SO MATCHED UP WITH WFO DLH
AND INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. KEPT
FLURRIES IN FAR WEST BUT HAVENT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP IN CNTRL
ND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180914
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 180530
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180530
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL TAKE THEIR TIME GETTING HERE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO KDVL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...VALLEY SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AOB 10
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 180335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 180027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
INTO THIS REGION. WENT WITH THIS TREND FOR THE UPDATE. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOG UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






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