000
FXUS63 KFGF 182320
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS WITH LATER UPDATES...BUT
NO MAJOR REVISIONS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FROM MIDWEEK AFTER. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND
WILL HANG WITH GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AS NAM
CONTINUES TO BE QUICKEST IN EJECTING PAC NW UPPER LOW EASTWARD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
MAINTAINING MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AS IS DOES
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASING SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE N-NW. MOIST
AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PLAINS NW INTO THE LOW OVER
EASTERN MT. THIS MOIST AXIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST OVER OUR FA LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
BUT LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING SEEMS LIMITED SO DID NOT MAKE ANY GREAT
CHANGES TO POPS BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IS LOW. LEANED
TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES BASED ON WARMING COLUMN AND SOLAR
POTENTIAL.

AFTER INITIAL CAPPING FEEL COMPLEX WILL INITIATE LATE EVENING
VCNTY SFC LOW OVER NE MT/NW ND AND PROPAGATE GENERALLY NE INTO
CANADA. MAJORITY OF MODELS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT IN
DEVELOPING E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ALONG ND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE FOCUS FOR SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTION SO INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTY EVEN GREATER ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS TO BECOME INCREASING
UNSTABLE ACROSS ENTIRE FA. LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY BUT WHERE THIS ACTUALLY SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE BRUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE. IF THIS POSITION
TURNS OUT COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH PROPAGATING E-SE
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THICKNESS GRADIENT.

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER COULD BE ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY BUT MODELS QUITE SPREAD ON SOLUTIONS. COLUMN WILL BE
QUITE WARM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
GOVERNING JUST HOW WARM/HUMID WE GET.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN A
TRANSITION PERIOD. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL STILL BE DOMINATED
BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAY BE
FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMING OVER THE AREA
AND TRACKING TO THE EAST. MODELS THEN CLOSE OFF A 500MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND SLOWLY LIFT IT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
MON WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SCATTERED PCPN CHANCES AROUND. AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF TO THE EAST MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BY TUE. AS FOR TEMPS
THEY LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...AND COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WED ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 80 ARE REACHED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 182029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FROM MIDWEEK AFTER. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND
WILL HANG WITH GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AS NAM
CONTINUES TO BE QUICKEST IN EJECTING PAC NW UPPER LOW EASTWARD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
MAINTAINING MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AS IS DOES
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASING SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE N-NW. MOIST
AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PLAINS NW INTO THE LOW OVER
EASTERN MT. THIS MOIST AXIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST OVER OUR FA LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
BUT LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING SEEMS LIMITED SO DID NOT MAKE ANY GREAT
CHANGES TO POPS BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IS LOW. LEANED
TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES BASED ON WARMING COLUMN AND SOLAR
POTENTIAL.

AFTER INITIAL CAPPING FEEL COMPLEX WILL INITIATE LATE EVENING
VCNTY SFC LOW OVER NE MT/NW ND AND PROPAGATE GENERALLY NE INTO
CANADA. MAJORITY OF MODELS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT IN
DEVELOPING E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ALONG ND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE FOCUS FOR SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTION SO INCREASED POPS ALONG THE BORDER AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTY EVEN GREATER ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS TO BECOME INCREASING
UNSTABLE ACROSS ENTIRE FA. LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY BUT WHERE THIS ACTUALLY SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE BRUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE. IF THIS POSITION
TURNS OUT COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH PROPAGATING E-SE
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THICKNESS GRADIENT.

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER COULD BE ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY BUT MODELS QUITE SPREAD ON SOLUTIONS. COLUMN WILL BE
QUITE WARM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
GOVERNING JUST HOW WARM/HUMID WE GET.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN A
TRANSITION PERIOD. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL STILL BE DOMINATED
BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAY BE
FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMING OVER THE AREA
AND TRACKING TO THE EAST. MODELS THEN CLOSE OFF A 500MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND SLOWLY LIFT IT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
MON WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SCATTERED PCPN CHANCES AROUND. AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF TO THE EAST MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BY TUE. AS FOR TEMPS
THEY LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SEEING SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS FORMATION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR. THIS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181734
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE. SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM
VALLEY WEST ABOUT AS EXPECTED. DID LOWER CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

NOT ENOUGH CHANGES IN THE GRIDS TO WARRANT AN UPDATE THIS PERIOD.
WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITHIN THE
VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL BE ADDRESSED AT THE 1PM UPDATE. CURRENTLY
ONLY CLOUDS IS MID LEVEL CLUSTER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FA. ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S REACHED WILL SEE HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH HEATING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY WITHIN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOWER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN CU ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SCATTERING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOULD BE A MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW CONUS...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN CLOSED LOWS
USUALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF FOR DETAILS.
THE MAIN AFFECT IS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT INTO THE FA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WED NIGHT
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLE UPPER WAVES EJECTING FROM THE
UPPER LOW...AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NEXT BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE AN MCS ONGOING NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12Z THUR.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...AND DEW POINT VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO APPROACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THUR AFTERNOON WITHIN MUCH OF THE FA.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLEAR AND WARM TEMP ARE ABLE TO REACH...MLCAPE
VALUES COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY THE TIME ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
MOVES INTO THE FA...AND REDEVELOPS AND/OR INTENSIFIES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES
FASTER THAN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. A DEGREE HIGHER FOR FRI AND MON. NO
CHANGE FOR SAT AND SUN FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SEEING SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS FORMATION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR. THIS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

NOT ENOUGH CHANGES IN THE GRIDS TO WARRANT AN UPDATE THIS PERIOD.
WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITHIN THE
VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL BE ADDRESSED AT THE 1PM UPDATE. CURRENTLY
ONLY CLOUDS IS MID LEVEL CLUSTER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FA. ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S REACHED WILL SEE HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH HEATING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY WITHIN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOWER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN CU ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SCATTERING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOULD BE A MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW CONUS...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN CLOSED LOWS
USUALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF FOR DETAILS.
THE MAIN AFFECT IS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT INTO THE FA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WED NIGHT
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLE UPPER WAVES EJECTING FROM THE
UPPER LOW...AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NEXT BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE AN MCS ONGOING NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12Z THUR.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...AND DEW POINT VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO APPROACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THUR AFTERNOON WITHIN MUCH OF THE FA.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLEAR AND WARM TEMP ARE ABLE TO REACH...MLCAPE
VALUES COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY THE TIME ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
MOVES INTO THE FA...AND REDEVELOPS AND/OR INTENSIFIES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES
FASTER THAN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. A DEGREE HIGHER FOR FRI AND MON. NO
CHANGE FOR SAT AND SUN FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ANY FOG AND LOWER VSBY AFFECTING KDVL WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE BROKEN CU (AROUND 5000 KFT) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE VALLEY...WITH A CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH HEATING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEY WITHIN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOWER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN CU ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SCATTERING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOULD BE A MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW CONUS...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN CLOSED LOWS
USUALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF FOR DETAILS.
THE MAIN AFFECT IS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT INTO THE FA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WED NIGHT
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLE UPPER WAVES EJECTING FROM THE
UPPER LOW...AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NEXT BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE AN MCS ONGOING NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12Z THUR.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...AND DEW POINT VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO APPROACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THUR AFTERNOON WITHIN MUCH OF THE FA.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLEAR AND WARM TEMP ARE ABLE TO REACH...MLCAPE
VALUES COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY THE TIME ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
MOVES INTO THE FA...AND REDEVELOPS AND/OR INTENSIFIES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES
FASTER THAN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. A DEGREE HIGHER FOR FRI AND MON. NO
CHANGE FOR SAT AND SUN FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ANY FOG AND LOWER VSBY AFFECTING KDVL WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE BROKEN CU (AROUND 5000 KFT) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE VALLEY...WITH A CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180906
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
406 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOULD BE A MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW CONUS...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN CLOSED LOWS
USUALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF FOR DETAILS.
THE MAIN AFFECT IS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT INTO THE FA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WED NIGHT
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLE UPPER WAVES EJECTING FROM THE
UPPER LOW...AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NEXT BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE AN MCS ONGOING NEAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12Z THUR.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...AND DEW POINT VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO APPROACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THUR AFTERNOON WITHIN MUCH OF THE FA.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLEAR AND WARM TEMP ARE ABLE TO REACH...MLCAPE
VALUES COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY THE TIME ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
MOVES INTO THE FA...AND REDEVELOPS AND/OR INTENSIFIES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES
FASTER THAN THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. A DEGREE HIGHER FOR FRI AND MON. NO
CHANGE FOR SAT AND SUN FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LVL CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
DISSIPATING SHOWERS WEST OF FAR WILL ERODE BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DRG THE DAY WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR
CIGS DROPPING INTO NERN ND TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF DVL-GFK-TVF AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I 94 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE ND SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. THINK WITH LOSS OF SOLAR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AND MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND
JUST AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND IN A WEAKENING RIBBON OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG CAPES. IMPULSE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN SD OVER NEXT HOUR
AND EXPECT END OF ACTIVITY BY 04Z. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST POPS
FOR THIS. DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHEAST NOW INTO THE UPPER 40S SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEG IN THIS AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE THE
DRIER LOW 40S/UPPER 30S OVER SWRN ONTARIO IMPACTING MY
NORTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP LOWS IN THIS REGION IN THE 45 TO
50 RANGE. NEEDED TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR HOURS...BUT TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD.
OTHER THAN MINOR CLOUD TREND CHANGES...NOT OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODERATE CAPE IN WESTERN ZONES...AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
H500 LOW WILL KEEP SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID EVENING. DO HAVE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ON
RADAR AT CURRENT TIME...ONE OVER WESTERN CASS COUNTY AND THE OTHER
IN CENTRAL POLK. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SHOWERS COULD HOLD ON IN THE VALLEY CITY AREA AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THINK ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
FINE TUNE POPS FOR 7 PM CDT UPDATE WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INCLUDE DISSIPATING SHOWERS/
T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
EXIST MODEL VARIANCES WITH QPF OUTPUT...SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR CANDO TO
PARK RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF CU IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF CU/SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS 1 TO 4 C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END
CHANCE POPS GOING DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHORT-WAVE RIPPLE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS WITH MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP FA IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX INTO
FA RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE AVAILABLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/LOW LEVEL FORCING SETS UP AS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CLOSE WITH
MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.
FOR THIS TOUGH TO PIN POINT WHERE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. PROBABLY BE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LVL CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
DISSIPATING SHOWERS WEST OF FAR WILL ERODE BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DRG THE DAY WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR
CIGS DROPPING INTO NERN ND TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF DVL-GFK-TVF AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I 94 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE ND SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. THINK WITH LOSS OF SOLAR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AND MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND
JUST AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND IN A WEAKENING RIBBON OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG CAPES. IMPULSE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN SD OVER NEXT HOUR
AND EXPECT END OF ACTIVITY BY 04Z. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST POPS
FOR THIS. DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHEAST NOW INTO THE UPPER 40S SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEG IN THIS AREA...BUT DO NOT SEE THE
DRIER LOW 40S/UPPER 30S OVER SWRN ONTARIO IMPACTING MY
NORTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP LOWS IN THIS REGION IN THE 45 TO
50 RANGE. NEEDED TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR HOURS...BUT TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD.
OTHER THAN MINOR CLOUD TREND CHANGES...NOT OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODERATE CAPE IN WESTERN ZONES...AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
H500 LOW WILL KEEP SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID EVENING. DO HAVE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ON
RADAR AT CURRENT TIME...ONE OVER WESTERN CASS COUNTY AND THE OTHER
IN CENTRAL POLK. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SHOWERS COULD HOLD ON IN THE VALLEY CITY AREA AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THINK ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
FINE TUNE POPS FOR 7 PM CDT UPDATE WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INCLUDE DISSIPATING SHOWERS/
T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
EXIST MODEL VARIANCES WITH QPF OUTPUT...SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR CANDO TO
PARK RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF CU IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF CU/SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS 1 TO 4 C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END
CHANCE POPS GOING DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHORT-WAVE RIPPLE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS WITH MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP FA IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX INTO
FA RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE AVAILABLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/LOW LEVEL FORCING SETS UP AS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CLOSE WITH
MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.
FOR THIS TOUGH TO PIN POINT WHERE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. PROBABLY BE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY
MORNING. TSTM WEST OF KFAR AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM
AERODROME AND WILL KEEP ONLY VCSH (NOT VCTS) FOR 00Z TAFS. EXPECT
VFR CU DECK TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 03Z FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 172333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODERATE CAPE IN WESTERN ZONES...AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
H500 LOW WILL KEEP SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID EVENING. DO HAVE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ON
RADAR AT CURRENT TIME...ONE OVER WESTERN CASS COUNTY AND THE OTHER
IN CENTRAL POLK. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SHOWERS COULD HOLD ON IN THE VALLEY CITY AREA AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THINK ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
FINE TUNE POPS FOR 7 PM CDT UPDATE WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INCLUDE DISSIPATING SHOWERS/
T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
EXIST MODEL VARIANCES WITH QPF OUTPUT...SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR CANDO TO
PARK RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF CU IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF CU/SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS 1 TO 4 C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END
CHANCE POPS GOING DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHORT-WAVE RIPPLE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS WITH MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP FA IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX INTO
FA RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE AVAILABLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/LOW LEVEL FORCING SETS UP AS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CLOSE WITH
MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.
FOR THIS TOUGH TO PIN POINT WHERE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. PROBABLY BE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY
MORNING. TSTM WEST OF KFAR AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM
AERODROME AND WILL KEEP ONLY VCSH (NOT VCTS) FOR 00Z TAFS. EXPECT
VFR CU DECK TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 03Z FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 172010
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INCLUDE DISSIPATING SHOWERS/
T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
EXIST MODEL VARIANCES WITH QPF OUTPUT...SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR CANDO TO
PARK RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF CU IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF CU/SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS 1 TO 4 C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END
CHANCE POPS GOING DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHORT-WAVE RIPPLE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS WITH MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP FA IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX INTO
FA RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE AVAILABLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/LOW LEVEL FORCING SETS UP AS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CLOSE WITH
MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.
FOR THIS TOUGH TO PIN POINT WHERE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. PROBABLY BE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS DVL BASIN AND FAR NE FA WITH REMAINDER OF
CU FIELD IN VFR RANGE. EXPECT FAR EAST AND WEST TO CONTINUE TO SEE
LIFTING CIGS WITH ENTIRE FA VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SHRA BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND CANNOT RULE OUT STRAY LTG STRIKE. OVERALL SHOULD NOT
AFFECT CIGS/VSBY SIGNIFICANTLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF BY MID EVENING
WITH WINDS BECOMING VRB AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171758 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCT-BKN THERMAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUN THIS MORNING WARMED MORE
QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPAED. WITH CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WON/T
RISE MUCH MORE FROM CURRENT READINGS AND ADJUSTED DIURNAL CURVE TO
MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST MN FROM NEAR THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO ADA. EXPECT SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR THE MT/ND/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING WITH IT AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK.
MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY 21 UTC...SO THINK REMAINING CLEAR AREAS THIS MORNING
SHOULD FILL-IN WITH BROKEN CU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE A TENTH OF LESS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT AND AS A
RESULT...LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...500MB SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE CWFA
LOWERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME COOLER
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLE...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MN TREES. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE RRV AND DVL BSN KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOW 50S. LIGHT SE WINDS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER IF ANY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS 500MB RIDING
OCCURS...LIFTING THE 500MB NW FLOW TO THE NE THROUGH OUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SW ENERGY TO PULSE OUT OF UPPER LOW
OVER PAC-NW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER COMPLEXES...AND WILL STICK
WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS DVL BASIN AND FAR NE FA WITH REMAINDER OF
CU FIELD IN VFR RANGE. EXPECT FAR EAST AND WEST TO CONTINUE TO SEE
LIFTING CIGS WITH ENTIRE FA VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SHRA BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND CANNOT RULE OUT STRAY LTG STRIKE. OVERALL SHOULD NOT
AFFECT CIGS/VSBY SIGNIFICANTLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF BY MID EVENING
WITH WINDS BECOMING VRB AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171502 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR THE MT/ND/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING WITH IT AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK.
MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY 21 UTC...SO THINK REMAINING CLEAR AREAS THIS MORNING
SHOULD FILL-IN WITH BROKEN CU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE A TENTH OF LESS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT AND AS A
RESULT...LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...500MB SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE CWFA
LOWERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME COOLER
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLE...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MN TREES. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE RRV AND DVL BSN KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOW 50S. LIGHT SE WINDS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER IF ANY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS 500MB RIDING
OCCURS...LIFTING THE 500MB NW FLOW TO THE NE THROUGH OUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SW ENERGY TO PULSE OUT OF UPPER LOW
OVER PAC-NW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER COMPLEXES...AND WILL STICK
WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR CIGS AT DVL THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ALSO THIS MORNING 1500FT DECK OF CU APPROACHING BJI AND POSSIBLY
TVF. TEMPO AT BJI LEFT OUT OF TVF FOR UNCERTAINTY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN W/ MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 TO
3000FT. NORTH WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 171154
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...500MB SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE CWFA
LOWERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME COOLER
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLE...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MN TREES. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE RRV AND DVL BSN KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOW 50S. LIGHT SE WINDS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER IF ANY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS 500MB RIDING
OCCURS...LIFTING THE 500MB NW FLOW TO THE NE THROUGH OUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SW ENERGY TO PULSE OUT OF UPPER LOW
OVER PAC-NW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER COMPLEXES...AND WILL STICK
WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR CIGS AT DVL THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ALSO THIS MORNING 1500FT DECK OF CU APPROACHING BJI AND POSSIBLY
TVF. TEMPO AT BJI LEFT OUT OF TVF FOR UNCERTAINTY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN W/ MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 TO
3000FT. NORTH WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170846
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...500MB SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE CWFA
LOWERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CWFA TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME COOLER
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLE...MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MN TREES. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE RRV AND DVL BSN KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOW 50S. LIGHT SE WINDS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER IF ANY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS 500MB RIDING
OCCURS...LIFTING THE 500MB NW FLOW TO THE NE THROUGH OUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SW ENERGY TO PULSE OUT OF UPPER LOW
OVER PAC-NW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS
DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER COMPLEXES...AND WILL STICK
WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE ON MONDAY WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND REMAIN AROUND
10KT AND DECREASE TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO ADD THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHER THAN ENTERING CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

UPPER LOW OVER S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TO WEAKEN AND DROP THROUGH FA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT WHAT
SHRA/ISOLD T DO DEVELOP TO DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING ESPECIALLY
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. FUTURE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD WHICH MAY CLIP SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD TRENDS
A LITTLE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DROPS THROUGH. WITH
CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUDS EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO DISSIPATE BUT
COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS VCNTY UPPER TROUGH. COLD ADVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND COLD FRONT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT CURRENT VALUES SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
DROP OFF TO FAR FROM AVERAGE VALUES.

DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IN VCNTY OF PASSING TROUGH...COLD POOL AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHRA/ISOLD T FOR MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER.

ANY SHOWERS AGAIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD BY MORNING...CLEARING AND COOLER COLUMN SOME
AREAS COULD SEE MINIMUMS IN THE 40S BUT LIKELY WILL HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
SET UP. MODELS DIFFER ON ANY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING MOST AREAS LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF SYNOPTIC DETAILS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ALIGNED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH 48 PLUS HOURS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG AN 850 HPA 30 KT
JET BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SOAR TO
EXTREME LEVELS BY 00 UTC SATURDAY WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 PLUS J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICIES FROM -10 TO -12. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODELED SURFACE
DEW POINT VALUES FROM 65 TO 75 DEGREES. SURFACE MOISTURE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATE START TO THE
GROWING SEASON AND LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THINK DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY +12 TO +14 C BEFORE DROPPING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE
POSSIBLE CAPPING AND FORCING LIMITATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS A
CONCERN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE WEEK.

VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT AREAS OF FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS DRY CONDITIONS...SO WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR NOW WHICH PAINT THE FORECAST AREA WITH 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE ON MONDAY WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND REMAIN AROUND
10KT AND DECREASE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 170237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER
MENTION AND JUST HAVE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER PERHAPS...BUT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

UPPER LOW OVER S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TO WEAKEN AND DROP THROUGH FA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT WHAT
SHRA/ISOLD T DO DEVELOP TO DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING ESPECIALLY
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. FUTURE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD WHICH MAY CLIP SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD TRENDS
A LITTLE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DROPS THROUGH. WITH
CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUDS EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO DISSIPATE BUT
COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS VCNTY UPPER TROUGH. COLD ADVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND COLD FRONT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT CURRENT VALUES SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
DROP OFF TO FAR FROM AVERAGE VALUES.

DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IN VCNTY OF PASSING TROUGH...COLD POOL AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHRA/ISOLD T FOR MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER.

ANY SHOWERS AGAIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD BY MORNING...CLEARING AND COOLER COLUMN SOME
AREAS COULD SEE MINIMUMS IN THE 40S BUT LIKELY WILL HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
SET UP. MODELS DIFFER ON ANY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING MOST AREAS LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF SYNOPTIC DETAILS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ALIGNED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH 48 PLUS HOURS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG AN 850 HPA 30 KT
JET BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SOAR TO
EXTREME LEVELS BY 00 UTC SATURDAY WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 PLUS J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICIES FROM -10 TO -12. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODELED SURFACE
DEW POINT VALUES FROM 65 TO 75 DEGREES. SURFACE MOISTURE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATE START TO THE
GROWING SEASON AND LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THINK DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY +12 TO +14 C BEFORE DROPPING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE
POSSIBLE CAPPING AND FORCING LIMITATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS A
CONCERN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE WEEK.

VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT AREAS OF FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS DRY CONDITIONS...SO WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR NOW WHICH PAINT THE FORECAST AREA WITH 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT AN AREA OF MAINLY VFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DISSIPATION IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS TOMORROW...AND
WILL MENTION IN THE NORTH WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 162320
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE ONLY CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO TONE DOWN POPS
SOME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA
OF MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO THE DVL BASIN.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

UPPER LOW OVER S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TO WEAKEN AND DROP THROUGH FA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT WHAT
SHRA/ISOLD T DO DEVELOP TO DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING ESPECIALLY
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. FUTURE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD WHICH MAY CLIP SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD TRENDS
A LITTLE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DROPS THROUGH. WITH
CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUDS EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO DISSIPATE BUT
COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS VCNTY UPPER TROUGH. COLD ADVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND COLD FRONT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT CURRENT VALUES SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
DROP OFF TO FAR FROM AVERAGE VALUES.

DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IN VCNTY OF PASSING TROUGH...COLD POOL AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHRA/ISOLD T FOR MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER.

ANY SHOWERS AGAIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD BY MORNING...CLEARING AND COOLER COLUMN SOME
AREAS COULD SEE MINIMUMS IN THE 40S BUT LIKELY WILL HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
SET UP. MODELS DIFFER ON ANY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING MOST AREAS LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF SYNOPTIC DETAILS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ALIGNED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH 48 PLUS HOURS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG AN 850 HPA 30 KT
JET BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SOAR TO
EXTREME LEVELS BY 00 UTC SATURDAY WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 PLUS J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICIES FROM -10 TO -12. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODELED SURFACE
DEW POINT VALUES FROM 65 TO 75 DEGREES. SURFACE MOISTURE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATE START TO THE
GROWING SEASON AND LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THINK DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY +12 TO +14 C BEFORE DROPPING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE
POSSIBLE CAPPING AND FORCING LIMITATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS A
CONCERN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE WEEK.

VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT AREAS OF FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS DRY CONDITIONS...SO WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR NOW WHICH PAINT THE FORECAST AREA WITH 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXPECT AN AREA OF MAINLY VFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DISSIPATION IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS TOMORROW...AND
WILL MENTION IN THE NORTH WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 162018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

UPPER LOW OVER S SASK/MB BORDER AREA TO WEAKEN AND DROP THROUGH FA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT WHAT
SHRA/ISOLD T DO DEVELOP TO DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING ESPECIALLY
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. FUTURE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD WHICH MAY CLIP SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD TRENDS
A LITTLE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DROPS THROUGH. WITH
CELLULAR NATURE OF CLOUDS EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO DISSIPATE BUT
COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS VCNTY UPPER TROUGH. COLD ADVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND COLD FRONT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT CURRENT VALUES SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
DROP OFF TO FAR FROM AVERAGE VALUES.

DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IN VCNTY OF PASSING TROUGH...COLD POOL AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHRA/ISOLD T FOR MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER.

ANY SHOWERS AGAIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD BY MORNING...CLEARING AND COOLER COLUMN SOME
AREAS COULD SEE MINIMUMS IN THE 40S BUT LIKELY WILL HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
SET UP. MODELS DIFFER ON ANY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING MOST AREAS LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF SYNOPTIC DETAILS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ALIGNED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY ALLOWING MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH 48 PLUS HOURS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG AN 850 HPA 30 KT
JET BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SOAR TO
EXTREME LEVELS BY 00 UTC SATURDAY WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 PLUS J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICIES FROM -10 TO -12. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODELED SURFACE
DEW POINT VALUES FROM 65 TO 75 DEGREES. SURFACE MOISTURE OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATE START TO THE
GROWING SEASON AND LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THINK DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY +12 TO +14 C BEFORE DROPPING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE
POSSIBLE CAPPING AND FORCING LIMITATIONS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS A
CONCERN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE WEEK.

VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT AREAS OF FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS DRY CONDITIONS...SO WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR NOW WHICH PAINT THE FORECAST AREA WITH 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCT-BKN CU FROM 4-8 KFT AGL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THROUGH 01-02 UTC. WILL KEEP VICINITY
MENTION AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30
KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED CEILINGS IN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN MODEL RH
VARIATIONS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 161738
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS
FA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED. SHRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE FA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN UPPER LOW RIDES ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHEAR/CAPE PRETTY WEAK SO THUNDER LIKELY TO
BE MORE ISOLATED. FARTHER SOUTH INSTABILITY AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO N CENTRAL SD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING NORTH FROM CENTRAL
SD T COMPLEX MAY INTERACT WITH APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS N CENTRAL SD WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD CLOSE TO SOUTHERN FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS
HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT POPS SO NO CHANGES MADE OTHER THAN TO
ISOLATE THE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO BEING REACHED ACROSS SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE
DEVELOPING CU AND APPROACHING COLD ADVECTION MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL
HEATING DID RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AREA.
ALSO UPPED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR
RETURNS DELAYED INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BACKED OF ON ANY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY SHRA
DEVELOPING UNTIL AFTERNOON EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR NW CORNER OF FA.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCT-BKN CU FROM 4-8 KFT AGL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THROUGH 01-02 UTC. WILL KEEP VICINITY
MENTION AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30
KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED CEILINGS IN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN MODEL RH
VARIATIONS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 161451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR
RETURNS DELAYED INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BACKED OF ON ANY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY SHRA
DEVELOPING UNTIL AFTERNOON EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR NW CORNER OF FA.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SKC WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING TO SCT AND BKN MID LEVEL CIGS AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES THOUGH MORE LIKELY AT DVL...GFK AND TVF. GUSTY WESTERLY SFC
WINDS TODAY TURNING TO THE NW TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 161150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SKC WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING TO SCT AND BKN MID LEVEL CIGS AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES THOUGH MORE LIKELY AT DVL...GFK AND TVF. GUSTY WESTERLY SFC
WINDS TODAY TURNING TO THE NW TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 160852
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COOLER FOR MONDAY AS

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE
TOMORROW MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO
ADDED VCNTY SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. ADDED VCNTY TSTMS FOR BJI AS I
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDS. NW WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 17/0200Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 160435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

00Z NAM WIND VELOCITIES COMING IN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
VALLEY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED. MAKES SENSE WITH DEEP ADIABATIC
LAYER AND SOME COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASED WINDS
FOR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN SITES. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
1 AM CDT UPDATE PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL SASK...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAKLY NEG SHOWALTERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS LONG INTL BORDER. HAVE SEEN
SOME LIGHTING OUT OF ONE STORM JUST EAST OF HALLOCK AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL TSTMS MOVING EAST ALONG HWY 2 BETWEEN MINOT AND
RUGBY...SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST SREF SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH 06Z...SO STILL THINK
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFT MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT GRIDS
DRY. WILL NEED TO EXTEND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT
FURTHER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MAIN JET IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SASK AND IS MOVING EAST INTO
MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS REFLECTED OVER SRN PART OF CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WY/SD. THUS...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE FA ATTM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING OVER THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PART
OF MANITOBA. EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE FA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ALOFT AND PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECT STACKED LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING FA IN RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM SLIM. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS REGION STARTS GETTING INTO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SW
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE
TOMORROW MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO
ADDED VCNTY SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. ADDED VCNTY TSTMS FOR BJI AS I
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDS. NW WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 17/0200Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 160159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL SASK...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAKLY NEG SHOWALTERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS LONG INTL BORDER. HAVE SEEN
SOME LIGHTING OUT OF ONE STORM JUST EAST OF HALLOCK AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL TSTMS MOVING EAST ALONG HWY 2 BETWEEN MINOT AND
RUGBY...SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST SREF SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH 06Z...SO STILL THINK
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFT MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT GRIDS
DRY. WILL NEED TO EXTEND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT
FURTHER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MAIN JET IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SASK AND IS MOVING EAST INTO
MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS REFLECTED OVER SRN PART OF CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WY/SD. THUS...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE FA ATTM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING OVER THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PART
OF MANITOBA. EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE FA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ALOFT AND PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECT STACKED LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING FA IN RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM SLIM. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS REGION STARTS GETTING INTO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SW
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 02Z. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO ADDED VCNTY
SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MN SITES IN
THE AFTN HOURS. DO PLAN FOR ADDING PRECIP TO FAR AS EXPECT SHOWERS
TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER