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000
FXUS63 KFGF 220431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING COMPACT INTENSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF FSE. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD
EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NW MN EARLY
THIS AM. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED SEVERE
MENTION TO OUR EASTERN FA BORDER AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GFK AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO MOVING INTO THE TVF AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THESE WINDS
INTO BJI IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ027-030.

MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-013>015-
     022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING COMPACT INTENSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF FSE. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD
EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NW MN EARLY
THIS AM. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED SEVERE
MENTION TO OUR EASTERN FA BORDER AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GFK AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO MOVING INTO THE TVF AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THESE WINDS
INTO BJI IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ027-030.

MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-013>015-
     022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220251
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220251
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRIMMED EASTERN ND OUT
OF WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 212345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 212345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED EARLY EVENING POPS HIGHLIGHTING MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR NW FA. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AS MAIN COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERECHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER CELLS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERACHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MVFR FOR BJI WITH SLOWLY ERODING 1500FT DECK. ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE
AFTN THEN SVR SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING IMPACTING DVL AROUND 23-01Z GFK AND FAR 01-03Z AND TVF BJI
BY 02-04Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF OUR ACTIVITY MOVING IN
AFTER 00Z...SO SLOWED POPS DOWN A BIT. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WILL BE LATER ON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT...SO
KEPT SEVERE MENTION UNTIL AFTER THAT POINT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO RISE...ALTHOUGH THE DEW POINT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH. SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CERTAINLY GET ABOVE 100
HEAT INDEX BUT FURTHER EAST IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL WATCH THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS AS ANTICIPATED. REMOVED THE LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR THE
SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND REDUCED THEM IN THE NORTH
AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH EDGE
OF THE CAP ALTHOUGH AM NOT IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY AS IT IS AS THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA. AS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUILD INTO THE REGION
THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SAME
APPLIES TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MVFR FOR BJI WITH SLOWLY ERODING 1500FT DECK. ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE
AFTN THEN SVR SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING IMPACTING DVL AROUND 23-01Z GFK AND FAR 01-03Z AND TVF BJI
BY 02-04Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211456
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS AS ANTICIPATED. REMOVED THE LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR THE
SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND REDUCED THEM IN THE NORTH
AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH EDGE
OF THE CAP ALTHOUGH AM NOT IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY AS IT IS AS THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA. AS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUILD INTO THE REGION
THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SAME
APPLIES TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND INCLUDED
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211456
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS AS ANTICIPATED. REMOVED THE LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR THE
SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND REDUCED THEM IN THE NORTH
AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH EDGE
OF THE CAP ALTHOUGH AM NOT IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY AS IT IS AS THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA. AS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUILD INTO THE REGION
THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SAME
APPLIES TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND INCLUDED
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA. AS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUILD INTO THE REGION
THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SAME
APPLIES TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND INCLUDED
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210906
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER










000
FXUS63 KFGF 210906
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

ALSO...CONTINUED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...JUST NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER











000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...AND TIMING OF STORMS. THE SPC
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE SITUATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS OVER OREGON...AND
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND WILL EJECT FROM
NEVADA AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA TODAY/THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THESE SHORTWAVES...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 2 BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS/WX TO THE LATEST
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE...AND KEPT THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND A 50+
KNOT 500MB JET ENTERS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE AND ATTEMPT TO ADD FURTHER DETAILS WITH
FUTURE UPDATES CONCERNING THIS HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT.

THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AREAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS PLACING THE FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE RIDING OVER AND FLATTENING THE
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A SLOW
MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY NOT ALL TOO GREAT...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS
FOR COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT POPS LIKELY OVERDONE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FINE TUNED AND TRIMMED POPS AS WELL AS REMOVING SEVERE MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FINE TUNED AND TRIMMED POPS AS WELL AS REMOVING SEVERE MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PSBL PATCHY BR
THIS AM WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLD. MAINTAINED
DRY FORECAST AS CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FINE TUNED AND TRIMMED POPS AS WELL AS REMOVING SEVERE MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED T POTENTIAL AT BJI FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONVECTION
TRYING TO INITIATE IN THAT AREA AND SITE BEING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FINE TUNED AND TRIMMED POPS AS WELL AS REMOVING SEVERE MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED T POTENTIAL AT BJI FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONVECTION
TRYING TO INITIATE IN THAT AREA AND SITE BEING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 202340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR UPDATE WAS TO TRIM WESTERN EDGE OF SVR MENTION.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED T POTENTIAL AT BJI FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONVECTION
TRYING TO INITIATE IN THAT AREA AND SITE BEING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR WITH A MVFR BKN DECK FORMING ALONG THE THE S TO WSW WIND SHIFT
WHICH HAS PUSHED THRU DVL AND GFK CLOSE TO FAR AND TVF. THE WINDS
SHIFT MAY INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTN WHERE THE VCTS AT BJI CONTINUES
FOR THE EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS CONTINUED TO CLIMB WITH KFAR AT 91F WITH A
DEW POINT OF 74F. DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RED RIVER WERE ALL ABOVE 70F. SFC TROUGH WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA.
LANGDON HAD A TEMP OF 90F BUT ITS DEW POINT HAD DROPPED TO 59F. SO A
LITTLE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. THERE WAS STILL
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS FROM KFAR UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS
TSTM POTENTIAL. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +12C NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND +10C IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND KDVL
REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING WITH
40 TO 45KTS OVER THE NORTH/NE. VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES AS A
RESULT OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME DO NOT
PLAN ON MANY CHANGES FROM GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIME FRAME MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING THERE. WILL
KEEP THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME DRY ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT
A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S. THIS WILL PUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF AROUND 100 OR ABOVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. OTHER QUESTION FOR MONDAY
WILL BE TSTMS CHANCES AGAIN. SPC HAS UPGRADED THEIR DAY2 OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK OUT A
TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL ND AND SLIDE IT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN LATER IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A
STRONGER WAVE TO HELP THINGS ALONG. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE TSTMS AND HPC DAY2 SHOWS A GOOD 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ANY SORT OF COMPLEX THAT TRACKS
ACROSS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO NO AREAS ARE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL THEREFORE JUST ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR MON NIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA WITH SEVERE WORDING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE. SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS TO BRING A 500MB
STACKED LOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS S CANADA WHICH WILL BRING WAA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND A CHC FOR
THUNDER THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW TURNS TO THE SE IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
WEST WINDS FRIDAY DRYING OUT THE FA AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDER WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPS TO BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW JULY NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR WITH A MVFR BKN DECK FORMING ALONG THE THE S TO WSW WIND SHIFT
WHICH HAS PUSHED THRU DVL AND GFK CLOSE TO FAR AND TVF. THE WINDS
SHIFT MAY INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTN WHERE THE VCTS AT BJI CONTINUES
FOR THE EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ003-029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SSW
WINDS YET AT KHCO AND WEST WINDS AT KDVL/CARRINGTON/VALLEY CITY.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S. THIS GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 3500+ J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE ALSO HIGH...OR 1.50+ INCHES SO ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. STILL WATCHING
AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER FOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTM THREAT...LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LATEST SPC WRF RUN
DEVELOPS A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR EASTERN FA BY 22-23Z
WHICH MATCHES LATEST RAP/HRRR AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR WITH A MVFR BKN DECK FORMING ALONG THE THE S TO WSW WIND SHIFT
WHICH HAS PUSHED THRU DVL AND GFK CLOSE TO FAR AND TVF. THE WINDS
SHIFT MAY INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTN WHERE THE VCTS AT BJI CONTINUES
FOR THE EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FA NOW BUT HUMIDITY NOTICEABLY HIGHER THIS
MORNING AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL PATCH OF FOG/HAZE AROUND KPKD WHICH SHOULD ERODE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOOKING TO BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. OTHER QUESTION WILL BE TSTM CHANCES.
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE WIDE
VARIETY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE SAME MODELS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING A
LINE OF WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE FA IN THE 08Z-12Z SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (EARLY THIS MORNING) WHICH NEVER MATERIALIZED. LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE LIFT SOURCE
IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOCUSES MORE INTO THE MANITOBA LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
700MB TEMPS ALSO RISE TO +10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR BY 00Z MON. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE EVEN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
TODAY. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS OVER ALL OF
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAD
THUNDER CHANCES OVER THIS AREA...BUT WILL PUSH BACK THE ONSET TIME
MORE TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HELPING
TOO MUCH WITH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING ALL THUNDER JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FA AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OVER JUST THE
EXTREME EASTERN FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER NEW GUIDANCE AS IT
COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12
UTC MONDAY. DID ADD VCTS AT KBJI BETWEEN 00 AND 04 UTC...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
PREDOMINANT THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20
KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FA NOW BUT HUMIDITY NOTICEABLY HIGHER THIS
MORNING AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL PATCH OF FOG/HAZE AROUND KPKD WHICH SHOULD ERODE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOOKING TO BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. OTHER QUESTION WILL BE TSTM CHANCES.
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE WIDE
VARIETY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE SAME MODELS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING A
LINE OF WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE FA IN THE 08Z-12Z SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (EARLY THIS MORNING) WHICH NEVER MATERIALIZED. LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE LIFT SOURCE
IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOCUSES MORE INTO THE MANITOBA LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
700MB TEMPS ALSO RISE TO +10C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR BY 00Z MON. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE EVEN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
TODAY. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS OVER ALL OF
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAD
THUNDER CHANCES OVER THIS AREA...BUT WILL PUSH BACK THE ONSET TIME
MORE TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HELPING
TOO MUCH WITH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPING ALL THUNDER JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FA AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OVER JUST THE
EXTREME EASTERN FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER NEW GUIDANCE AS IT
COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12
UTC MONDAY. DID ADD VCTS AT KBJI BETWEEN 00 AND 04 UTC...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
PREDOMINANT THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20
KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 201202 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LATEST RAP/HRRR NOW PUSHING SFC TROUGH TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY
SO THAT BY THE TIME CONVECTION INITIATES FROM 20 TO 22 UTC...IT
IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND
CONTINUE BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
RUNS. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12
UTC MONDAY. DID ADD VCTS AT KBJI BETWEEN 00 AND 04 UTC...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
PREDOMINANT THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20
KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201202 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LATEST RAP/HRRR NOW PUSHING SFC TROUGH TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY
SO THAT BY THE TIME CONVECTION INITIATES FROM 20 TO 22 UTC...IT
IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND
CONTINUE BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
RUNS. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH 12
UTC MONDAY. DID ADD VCTS AT KBJI BETWEEN 00 AND 04 UTC...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
PREDOMINANT THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20
KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200838
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION/GLOBAL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A RAP/HRRR BLEND THROUGH 00 UTC
TONIGHT AND A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST AND SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM HALLOCK TO ABERDEEN BY 18
UTC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY
FORCING ALOFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BULK
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. ADDED SEVERE MENTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE WX
GRIDS TO COINCIDE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AS WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES AND
BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SD
WITH A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN LESS CAPPED MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING 500 HPA WAVE WILL
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES INITIALLY
SUPPORT SCATTERED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-94/HWY 10 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A STRONG UPPER LOW BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK/SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
LATER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...WITH EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED PCPN MENTION FROM
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...AV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN TONIGHT. LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND
DELAYED TO CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAXIMA PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA. WITH DELAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND
MIXING HAD TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED PCPN MENTION FROM
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AV
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...AV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN TONIGHT. LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES AND
DELAYED TO CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAXIMA PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA. WITH DELAY OF WARM ADVECTION AND
MIXING HAD TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED PCPN MENTION FROM
TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AV
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...AV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 200245
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED SHRA VCNTY AT SITES EXCEPT BJI
AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS AIRMASS CURRENTLY VERY STABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED SHRA VCNTY AT SITES EXCEPT BJI
AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS AIRMASS CURRENTLY VERY STABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED SHRA VCNTY AT SITES EXCEPT BJI
AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS AIRMASS CURRENTLY VERY STABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER









000
FXUS63 KFGF 192009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR AFFECTING KTVF/KBJI. NOT LOOKING LIKE
THIS WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
FIRES OR HOLD TOGETHER. AMERICAN MODELS SHOW MORE PCPN THAN THE
OTHERS SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VCTS FOR KGFK/KTVF/KBJI
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 192009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR AFFECTING KTVF/KBJI. NOT LOOKING LIKE
THIS WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
FIRES OR HOLD TOGETHER. AMERICAN MODELS SHOW MORE PCPN THAN THE
OTHERS SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VCTS FOR KGFK/KTVF/KBJI
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS SEEM ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR AFFECTING KTVF/KBJI. NOT LOOKING LIKE
THIS WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
FIRES OR HOLD TOGETHER. AMERICAN MODELS SHOW MORE PCPN THAN THE
OTHERS SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VCTS FOR KGFK/KTVF/KBJI
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS SEEM ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR AFFECTING KTVF/KBJI. NOT LOOKING LIKE
THIS WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
FIRES OR HOLD TOGETHER. AMERICAN MODELS SHOW MORE PCPN THAN THE
OTHERS SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VCTS FOR KGFK/KTVF/KBJI
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS SEEM ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ANY SPOTTY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 191431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS SEEM ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ANY SPOTTY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 191130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ANY SPOTTY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ADVECT EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 190823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ISOLD T ACROSS SE THIRD OF THE FA SHOULD EXIT AREA TOWARDS
DAYLIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 190823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ISOLD T ACROSS SE THIRD OF THE FA SHOULD EXIT AREA TOWARDS
DAYLIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER





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