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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280842
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...NOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BOTH
00Z AND 06Z NAM40 HAVE BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THAT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO SOUTHEAST ND BY SUNRISE AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA /ALG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHEASTERN SD BY EARLY EVENING AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THAT... THE MAIN DEEP
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN... THUS AM CURRENTLY DISCOUNTING THE HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS EYE
WHICH THE ROGUE 00Z GFS HAS TARGETED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
BASIN AREA.

FRIDAY...AS CLOUDS DEPART THE WEST CENTRAL MN REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DESCENDING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH NORTHEAST ND... AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE DURING THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY...
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAST AND FURIOUS IS THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AND DRY SATURDAY. EXPECT A SEASONABLY COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY... WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FLATTENED AND
FAST H5 FLOW SHOULD HAVE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. ALSO A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LNG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US BUILDS NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF BECOMES
SLIGHTLY FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET IS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. THEN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PRECIP ARE TRENDING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR SO LOWER ON SUN AND A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGH FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO THE DVL BASIN AND SOUTHERN RRV
THROUGH 11Z...WITH FAIR SKIES OVER NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG
SETTING UP OVER NCNTRL MN THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MID TO LOW LEVEL
CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA THROUGH
THE DAYTIME WITH AREAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL SCT SKIES MOVG FROM
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280842
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...NOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BOTH
00Z AND 06Z NAM40 HAVE BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THAT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO SOUTHEAST ND BY SUNRISE AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA /ALG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHEASTERN SD BY EARLY EVENING AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THAT... THE MAIN DEEP
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN... THUS AM CURRENTLY DISCOUNTING THE HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS EYE
WHICH THE ROGUE 00Z GFS HAS TARGETED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
BASIN AREA.

FRIDAY...AS CLOUDS DEPART THE WEST CENTRAL MN REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DESCENDING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH NORTHEAST ND... AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE DURING THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY...
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAST AND FURIOUS IS THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AND DRY SATURDAY. EXPECT A SEASONABLY COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY... WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FLATTENED AND
FAST H5 FLOW SHOULD HAVE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. ALSO A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LNG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US BUILDS NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF BECOMES
SLIGHTLY FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET IS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. THEN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PRECIP ARE TRENDING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR SO LOWER ON SUN AND A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGH FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO THE DVL BASIN AND SOUTHERN RRV
THROUGH 11Z...WITH FAIR SKIES OVER NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG
SETTING UP OVER NCNTRL MN THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MID TO LOW LEVEL
CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA THROUGH
THE DAYTIME WITH AREAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL SCT SKIES MOVG FROM
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME POP CHANGES FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO SE ND/WCNTRL
MN. WENT ALONG WITH CHANGES. AGREES WITH RADAR AND LATEST HRRR AS
WELL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST THRU SE ND AS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. OF CONCERN IS AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE BISMARCK AREA THAT THE HRRR WANTS TO BRING A BIT NORTH
TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY 11Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT
DVL FOR THIS DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE 5-6K FT CIGS
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND HANG AROUND MOST AREAS
THRU THURSDAY. DID NOT INCLUDE SHOWERS AT FARGO AS COVERAGE AND
TIMING VERY QUESTIONABLE AS BEST CHANCE REMAINS SOUTH OF FARGO.
WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY 8 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME POP CHANGES FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO SE ND/WCNTRL
MN. WENT ALONG WITH CHANGES. AGREES WITH RADAR AND LATEST HRRR AS
WELL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST THRU SE ND AS
EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED CIRRUS NORTHEASTERN ND/NW MN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN ND/WCNTRL MN. MID CLOUDS THURSDAY
IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS VS A THINNER HIGH CLOUD
DECK IN THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME POP CHANGES FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO SE ND/WCNTRL
MN. WENT ALONG WITH CHANGES. AGREES WITH RADAR AND LATEST HRRR AS
WELL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST THRU SE ND AS
EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED CIRRUS NORTHEASTERN ND/NW MN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN ND/WCNTRL MN. MID CLOUDS THURSDAY
IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS VS A THINNER HIGH CLOUD
DECK IN THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO CHANGES MADE. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOG THREAT APPEARS LOW...BUT HIGHEST IN FAR NW MN IN
MORE CLEAR/LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED CIRRUS NORTHEASTERN ND/NW MN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN ND/WCNTRL MN. MID CLOUDS THURSDAY
IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS VS A THINNER HIGH CLOUD
DECK IN THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 280014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO CHANGES MADE. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOG THREAT APPEARS LOW...BUT HIGHEST IN FAR NW MN IN
MORE CLEAR/LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SCATTERED CIRRUS NORTHEASTERN ND/NW MN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN ND/WCNTRL MN. MID CLOUDS THURSDAY
IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS VS A THINNER HIGH CLOUD
DECK IN THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 272005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING SO WILL BUMP UP CLOUD AMOUNTS JUST A BIT
MORE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING SO WILL BUMP UP CLOUD AMOUNTS JUST A BIT
MORE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

STILL A LITTLE BIT OF FOG AROUND BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH MORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS. WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR CLOUD CHANGES
AS REST OF FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...INTO CENTRAL MN.
LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 271437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

STILL A LITTLE BIT OF FOG AROUND BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH MORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS. WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE MINOR CLOUD CHANGES
AS REST OF FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...INTO CENTRAL MN.
LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG
SHOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNRISE. VFR DECK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ND WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND AWAY DURING THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...INTO CENTRAL MN.
LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG
SHOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNRISE. VFR DECK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ND WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND AWAY DURING THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...INTO CENTRAL MN.
LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA...INTO CENTRAL
MN. LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENT DRYING UNDER AN
APPROACHING H5 RIDGE LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE LEADING TO A SEASONABLY MILD
DAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW IN THE POLAR JET STREAM HAS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA... NEARER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY... WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER BASIN DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PUT ANY DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATED LOW LEVEL JET FORCINGS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO STAY ENGAGED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BAND IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SETTLES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 7. ZONAL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN ALSO SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPLYING
JET STREAM TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN. ALSO
STABILITY DECREASES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GFS
FAST...NAM SLOW AND ECMWF THE COMPROMISE. GFS REMAINS FAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE OUT OF PHASE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING AIR BEHIND VFR
CLOUD DECK NOW PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA...INTO CENTRAL
MN. LOCAL AREA WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. SOME VFR CU FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL MN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH
LINGERING BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN FROM FAR SE ND
INTO WCNTRL MN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT MID CLOUDS MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER TIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKY HOWEVER IN FAR NW MN AND NE ND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW MN. CALM WINDS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE BEMIDJI AREA AND ADDED THIS TO GRIDS FOR PARTS OF
NW MN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS A BIT COOLER AS WELL...SO LOWERED A BIT
WITH LOW-MID 40S IN NW MN COOL SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO BEMIDJI TAF THROUGH 12Z. HOW LOW AND HOW LONG
VSBY WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR GROUND FOG WHICH OFTEN WILL VARY GREATLY IN VSBY. ALSO ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THIEF RIVER FALLS. REST OF THE AREA SEEING SOME
RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTH WIND. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY SO CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. CU LIKELY VERY LIMITED OR
NONE...BEST CHC FOR CU IN MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH
LINGERING BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN FROM FAR SE ND
INTO WCNTRL MN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT MID CLOUDS MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER TIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKY HOWEVER IN FAR NW MN AND NE ND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW MN. CALM WINDS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE BEMIDJI AREA AND ADDED THIS TO GRIDS FOR PARTS OF
NW MN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS A BIT COOLER AS WELL...SO LOWERED A BIT
WITH LOW-MID 40S IN NW MN COOL SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO BEMIDJI TAF THROUGH 12Z. HOW LOW AND HOW LONG
VSBY WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR GROUND FOG WHICH OFTEN WILL VARY GREATLY IN VSBY. ALSO ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THIEF RIVER FALLS. REST OF THE AREA SEEING SOME
RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTH WIND. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY SO CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. CU LIKELY VERY LIMITED OR
NONE...BEST CHC FOR CU IN MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FROM FOSSTON-MAHNOMEN THROUGH FARGO TO EDGELEY
ND PUSHING EAST. DID CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR SCT RW- THRU THE
EVENING AS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES EAST....MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND IT INTO COOPERSTOWN-
GRAND FORKS AREA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LIGHT RAIN IN FARGO FROM VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE EARLY
EVENING LIKELY ENDING 03Z-04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUD DECK GRAND
FORKS TO BEMIDJI SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE EAST LEADING TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH WEDNESDAY SEEING JUST A FEW CLOUDS. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR FOG
CHANCES...NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE PATCHY SO DID NOT
INCLUDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FROM FOSSTON-MAHNOMEN THROUGH FARGO TO EDGELEY
ND PUSHING EAST. DID CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR SCT RW- THRU THE
EVENING AS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES EAST....MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND IT INTO COOPERSTOWN-
GRAND FORKS AREA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LIGHT RAIN IN FARGO FROM VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE EARLY
EVENING LIKELY ENDING 03Z-04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUD DECK GRAND
FORKS TO BEMIDJI SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE EAST LEADING TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH WEDNESDAY SEEING JUST A FEW CLOUDS. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR FOG
CHANCES...NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE PATCHY SO DID NOT
INCLUDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MN HAVE LIFTED INTO A STRATOCUMULUS
DECK WHICH IS STILL PRETTY THICK. WITH THE LOWER AMOUNT OF SOLAR
EXPECTED WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE A BIT TOO.
OTHERWISE MORE CUMULUS ALSO FORMED FROM CANDO DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE KPKD AREA...SO HAD TO BUMP UP
CLOUD AMOUNTS THERE TOO. SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE KDIK TO KBIS CORRIDOR AND THESE MAY WELL HOLD TOGETHER
AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND THE LOW PCPN CHANCES NORTHWARD A BIT INTO THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY IF THESE CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT PATH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MN HAVE LIFTED INTO A STRATOCUMULUS
DECK WHICH IS STILL PRETTY THICK. WITH THE LOWER AMOUNT OF SOLAR
EXPECTED WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE A BIT TOO.
OTHERWISE MORE CUMULUS ALSO FORMED FROM CANDO DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE KPKD AREA...SO HAD TO BUMP UP
CLOUD AMOUNTS THERE TOO. SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE KDIK TO KBIS CORRIDOR AND THESE MAY WELL HOLD TOGETHER
AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND THE LOW PCPN CHANCES NORTHWARD A BIT INTO THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY IF THESE CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT PATH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED TO LINGER SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION IS STILL WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS ERN ND WITH AREAS VFR CIGS REMAINING
IN NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. THROUGH THE MORNING EXPECT CONTINUED
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING BROKEN CIGS
OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ND...WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPDATED TO LINGER SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION IS STILL WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS ERN ND WITH AREAS VFR CIGS REMAINING
IN NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. THROUGH THE MORNING EXPECT CONTINUED
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING BROKEN CIGS
OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ND...WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SO SIG CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE THUS FAR. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ERODE. PATCHY FOG IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WESTCENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WESTCENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS ERN ND WITH AREAS VFR CIGS REMAINING
IN NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD
DISSATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. THROUGH THE MORNING EXPECT CONTINUED
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING BROKEN CIGS
OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ND...WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SO SIG CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE THUS FAR. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ERODE. PATCHY FOG IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WESTCENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WESTCENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS ERN ND WITH AREAS VFR CIGS REMAINING
IN NORTHWEST MN. PATCHY FOG IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD
DISSATE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. THROUGH THE MORNING EXPECT CONTINUED
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING BROKEN CIGS
OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ND...WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...DRYING CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS FAST BREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM NCNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND
WESTCENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE RED RIVER BASIN. FOR NOW...THE RUC SEEMS A BIT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WIT THIS FEATURE...WHILE HRRR AND NAM PREFER A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP THREAT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SURFACE RIDGE STAYS DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PROMISING
SOME REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
FOR ANOTHER DAY BY A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SD AND NRN IA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BAND OF
MOIST AIR THROUGH EASTERN SD INTO WESTCENTRAL MN...WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING AGAINST THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NAM AND WITH WPC CONTINUITY IN KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS BEEN
SOMETHING OF THE WET OUTLIER SOLN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH THE UPPER AIR. HOWEVER WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES THE GFS WAS FAST AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS....INCREASES TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND
DECREASE A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT. NO CHANGE TO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAINLY VFR CU DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH SKIES HAVING SCATTERED
OUT TO THE WEST OF A GFK-FAR LINE. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
EXPECT CONTINUED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE RRV AND ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING BROKEN CIGS OVER THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON
WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ND...WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMP TRENDS ON
TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN DECK
OF CU TRAVERSING THE CWFA. THINKING THE SCT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MID TO LOW 40S TO BE REALIZED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPS. LANGDON SCT OUT BRIEFLY AND DROPPED QUICKLY 48F AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THAT WILL...COULD OCCUR AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW AND MID CLOUD DECKS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CU DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH SKIES SCT OUT AT GFK...OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE SCT TO SKC EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY BJI...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 260451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMP TRENDS ON
TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN DECK
OF CU TRAVERSING THE CWFA. THINKING THE SCT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MID TO LOW 40S TO BE REALIZED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPS. LANGDON SCT OUT BRIEFLY AND DROPPED QUICKLY 48F AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THAT WILL...COULD OCCUR AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW AND MID CLOUD DECKS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CU DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH SKIES SCT OUT AT GFK...OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE SCT TO SKC EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY BJI...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN DECK
OF CU TRAVERSING THE CWFA. THINKING THE SCT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MID TO LOW 40S TO BE REALIZED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPS. LANGDON SCT OUT BRIEFLY AND DROPPED QUICKLY 48F AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THAT WILL...COULD OCCUR AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW AND MID CLOUD DECKS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUSTINESS HAS WANED AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. DID DELAY THE SCT CIGS ABOUT 3 TO
4 HOURS AS BKN CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN DECK
OF CU TRAVERSING THE CWFA. THINKING THE SCT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MID TO LOW 40S TO BE REALIZED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPS. LANGDON SCT OUT BRIEFLY AND DROPPED QUICKLY 48F AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THAT WILL...COULD OCCUR AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW AND MID CLOUD DECKS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUSTINESS HAS WANED AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. DID DELAY THE SCT CIGS ABOUT 3 TO
4 HOURS AS BKN CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE AND IMPACT ON
MORNING TEMPS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CLEARING OCCURRING BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE VALLEY AND WEST. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WHERE THE RUC
LINGERS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL 09Z IN THE RRV AND THE NAM KEEPS
HIGHER RH THROUGH 12Z. SO FOR NOW WILL WATCH CLOUD TRENDS. IF
CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...WOULD NEED TO UP THE CURRENT MID 40S MIN
TEMPS FOR MORNING ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUSTINESS HAS WANED AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. DID DELAY THE SCT CIGS ABOUT 3 TO
4 HOURS AS BKN CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE AND IMPACT ON
MORNING TEMPS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CLEARING OCCURRING BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE VALLEY AND WEST. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WHERE THE RUC
LINGERS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL 09Z IN THE RRV AND THE NAM KEEPS
HIGHER RH THROUGH 12Z. SO FOR NOW WILL WATCH CLOUD TRENDS. IF
CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...WOULD NEED TO UP THE CURRENT MID 40S MIN
TEMPS FOR MORNING ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUSTINESS HAS WANED AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. DID DELAY THE SCT CIGS ABOUT 3 TO
4 HOURS AS BKN CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...JK









000
FXUS63 KFGF 251958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.


FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ALL SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS NOW AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CLOUD TRENDS OR ANY FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TAF TREND OF SOME SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS A CLEARING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE BUT
THEN STALLS AFTER DARK. HAVE POSTPONED THE SCATTERING OUT BY A FEW
MORE HOURS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD TRENDS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ADDING ANY FOG
AT THIS POINT EITHER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251958
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PULLED
OFF INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VERY CELLULAR
TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THINK IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE. A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW SOME 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0 C...AND MORNING OBS
IN CANADA HAD AROUND 3 C SO THE COLD TREND LOOKS REASONABLE.
CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH FITS
WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING AND THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN THERE IS AVAILABLE TODAY. THINK WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 60S. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND NAM GOING DRY AND THE
TREND OF MODELS OVERDOING PRECIP LATELY WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET
GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE OVER SD AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OTHERS HAVE THE
PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY MINOR SHORTWAVES. TEMPS
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.


FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL GENERALLY BE STARTING THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE A BIT BY SAT/SAT
NIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AGAIN. AT THE SFC A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN ALONG IT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN. THEREAFTER ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH IT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ALL SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS NOW AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CLOUD TRENDS OR ANY FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TAF TREND OF SOME SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS A CLEARING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE BUT
THEN STALLS AFTER DARK. HAVE POSTPONED THE SCATTERING OUT BY A FEW
MORE HOURS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD TRENDS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ADDING ANY FOG
AT THIS POINT EITHER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251751
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE CAUSED CLOUDS TO FILL IN EVEN OUR
FORMALLY CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO BUMPED UP CLOUDS IN THE
GRIDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...SO ONLY A FEW
SITES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE SEEN RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. LOWERED POPS AS MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR AS
RADAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT RETURNS WITH THE DEVELOPING CU.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NOT MANY SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THINK SOME SHOWER FORMATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT DID NOT REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ALL SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS NOW AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CLOUD TRENDS OR ANY FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TAF TREND OF SOME SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS A CLEARING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE BUT
THEN STALLS AFTER DARK. HAVE POSTPONED THE SCATTERING OUT BY A FEW
MORE HOURS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD TRENDS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ADDING ANY FOG
AT THIS POINT EITHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NOT MANY SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THINK SOME SHOWER FORMATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT DID NOT REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS FAR NERN ND AND SERN MANITOBA
TODAY WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY /INCLUDING GFK/ THROUHG THE FORENOON...AND INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS MOST LOCATIONS
TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NOT MANY SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THINK SOME SHOWER FORMATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT DID NOT REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS FAR NERN ND AND SERN MANITOBA
TODAY WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY /INCLUDING GFK/ THROUHG THE FORENOON...AND INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS MOST LOCATIONS
TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 251106
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
606 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS FAR NERN ND AND SERN MANITOBA
TODAY WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY /INCLUDING GFK/ THROUHG THE FORENOON...AND INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS MOST LOCATIONS
TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251106
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
606 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS FAR NERN ND AND SERN MANITOBA
TODAY WILL DRAG AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SCT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY /INCLUDING GFK/ THROUHG THE FORENOON...AND INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS MOST LOCATIONS
TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST








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