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000
FXUS63 KFGF 020230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 020230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 020230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 012341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 012036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
THIS AFTN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY VCNTY DVL SHIFTS EAST. WILL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE TURN SW AND EVENTUALLY
W...INCREASING AFTER TURNING W. SHOULD SEE GUSTINESS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND RESUME TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 30MPH IN THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH THOSE WINDS CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RHS ARE NOT AS LOW
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN AROUND 7PM.

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA AND HUBBARD
COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE MIN RHS IN
THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 20
TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME.


&&




.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 012036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
THIS AFTN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY VCNTY DVL SHIFTS EAST. WILL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE TURN SW AND EVENTUALLY
W...INCREASING AFTER TURNING W. SHOULD SEE GUSTINESS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND RESUME TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 30MPH IN THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH THOSE WINDS CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RHS ARE NOT AS LOW
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN AROUND 7PM.

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA AND HUBBARD
COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE MIN RHS IN
THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 20
TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME.


&&




.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011806
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
106 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

TWEEKED SKY COVER A BIT TO INDICATE A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS THAN GRIDS GAVE. O/W NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
THIS AFTN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY VCNTY DVL SHIFTS EAST. WILL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE TURN SW AND EVENTUALLY
W...INCREASING AFTER TURNING W. SHOULD SEE GUSTINESS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND RESUME TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011806
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
106 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

TWEEKED SKY COVER A BIT TO INDICATE A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS THAN GRIDS GAVE. O/W NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
THIS AFTN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY VCNTY DVL SHIFTS EAST. WILL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE TURN SW AND EVENTUALLY
W...INCREASING AFTER TURNING W. SHOULD SEE GUSTINESS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND RESUME TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011517
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011517
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011517
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011517
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 011150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 011150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 312344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 312344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS
SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE
AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT
MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING
AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPECT MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN
WESTERN MN WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON...IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING
AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPECT MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN
WESTERN MN WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON...IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING OK SO WILL LET IT RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PESKY IFR DECK IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN IS ERODING FROM THE WEST AND
EDGING EASTWARD... LEAVING MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND
THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE RRV WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLAYER FLOW
IN NORTHWEST MN SHIFTING STEADILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING...
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EASTERN ND SLOWLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GUSTY SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING OK SO WILL LET IT RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PESKY IFR DECK IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN IS ERODING FROM THE WEST AND
EDGING EASTWARD... LEAVING MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND
THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE RRV WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLAYER FLOW
IN NORTHWEST MN SHIFTING STEADILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING...
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EASTERN ND SLOWLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GUSTY SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING OK SO WILL LET IT RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PESKY IFR DECK IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN IS ERODING FROM THE WEST AND
EDGING EASTWARD... LEAVING MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND
THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE RRV WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLAYER FLOW
IN NORTHWEST MN SHIFTING STEADILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING...
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EASTERN ND SLOWLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GUSTY SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING OK SO WILL LET IT RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PESKY IFR DECK IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN IS ERODING FROM THE WEST AND
EDGING EASTWARD... LEAVING MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND
THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE RRV WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLAYER FLOW
IN NORTHWEST MN SHIFTING STEADILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING...
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EASTERN ND SLOWLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING GUSTY SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBJI
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORMING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER SITES
TONIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE E/SE
AND INCREASE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBJI
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORMING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER SITES
TONIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE E/SE
AND INCREASE BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1106 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
FA...AND WE WILL EXTEND POPS FOR A FEW HOURS HERE. OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS WHERE THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
TODAY...MAINLY IN WC AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBJI
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORMING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER SITES
TONIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE E/SE
AND INCREASE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310407
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1106 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
FA...AND WE WILL EXTEND POPS FOR A FEW HOURS HERE. OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS WHERE THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
TODAY...MAINLY IN WC AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBJI
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORMING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER SITES
TONIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE E/SE
AND INCREASE BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN WC MN NEAR BJI...AND WILL ADD PATCHY
FOG INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER AREAS
FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT JUST SCATTERED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN WC MN NEAR BJI...AND WILL ADD PATCHY
FOG INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER AREAS
FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT JUST SCATTERED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW
POPS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT JUST SCATTERED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW
POPS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT JUST SCATTERED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW
POPS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT JUST SCATTERED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 302012
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KFGF 302012
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BACK EDGE OF SHRA BAND EXITING NE ND AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW
MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS PTNS
OF NW MN WILL REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST SO DROPPED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS AND POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE THE
ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BACK EDGE OF SHRA BAND EXITING NE ND AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW
MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS PTNS
OF NW MN WILL REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST SO DROPPED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS AND POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE THE
ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BACK EDGE OF SHRA BAND EXITING NE ND AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW
MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS PTNS
OF NW MN WILL REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST SO DROPPED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS AND POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE THE
ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BACK EDGE OF SHRA BAND EXITING NE ND AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW
MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS PTNS
OF NW MN WILL REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST SO DROPPED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS AND POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE THE
ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS FA TODAY.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SPOTTY SHRA FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM ADVECTION. WITH CIGS MAINLY FROM 6-8K FT MOST
RETURNS LIKELY VIRGA/SPRINKLES. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CWA BUT
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET SOME RAIN AS THE FRONTOGENSIS BAND STRENGTHENS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BAND OF RAIN
MAY IMPACT KTVF AND KBJI LATER THIS MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINY ABOUT HOW HEAVY. WILL KEEP VIS ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE
3000 FT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRECIP COMING IN TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION...AND WV LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT
ALONG WITH THE LOW...AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AT 800MB MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME IN OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN
WARM AIR UPSTREAM...THINK THAT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLAKES MIXING IN AS THE BAND MOVES IN THIS MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME OF THE MODEL ARE PUTTING OUT
NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE AND KEPT TOP AMOUNTS JUST OVER A TENTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIP AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF 30KT 925MB WINDS. DO NOT
THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
BREEZY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER. BEHIND THE SFC LOW WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE WEST IN THE 60S WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS VERY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW. MIXING WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BRIEFLY INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH NICE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND
MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR LAST STRONG TROUGH. Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND THE MODELS HAVE ONLY A TOKEN AMOUNT OF
QPF IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT
WE GET THE DRY SLOT. KEPT ONLY SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
THINK THAT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. 850MB TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW GET UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS C...SO TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A FAIRLY MILD START IN THE 40S THINK WE SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND READINGS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY FALL ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PCPN ON SATURDAY...AND A SHOT OF REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK








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