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000
FXUS63 KFGF 011134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...CONDITIONS SEEM ON TRACK
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING MT. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ND TODAY AND
IMPACTING OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME
PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
POPS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY STORMS DISSIPATE. CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY WEAK AROUND 30
KTS SO THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS
ALL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS
GOING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
START WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO MT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MAINLY WEDESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS AND EVEN WITH THE
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMINESS. A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW-MID LEVEL CAA SUGGEST A BREEZY DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THEN KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES...BUT KBJI AND KTVF
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CIGS AT 400-500 FT. THINK THIS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z OR SO AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TODAY
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOING TAFS
HAD SOME VCSH WHICH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT AS
THUNDER WILL BE PRETTY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR









000
FXUS63 KFGF 011134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...CONDITIONS SEEM ON TRACK
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING MT. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ND TODAY AND
IMPACTING OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME
PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
POPS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY STORMS DISSIPATE. CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY WEAK AROUND 30
KTS SO THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS
ALL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS
GOING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
START WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO MT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MAINLY WEDESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS AND EVEN WITH THE
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMINESS. A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW-MID LEVEL CAA SUGGEST A BREEZY DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THEN KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES...BUT KBJI AND KTVF
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CIGS AT 400-500 FT. THINK THIS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z OR SO AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TODAY
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOING TAFS
HAD SOME VCSH WHICH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT AS
THUNDER WILL BE PRETTY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING MT. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ND TODAY AND
IMPACTING OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME
PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
POPS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY STORMS DISSIPATE. CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY WEAK AROUND 30
KTS SO THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS
ALL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS
GOING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
START WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO MT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MAINLY WEDESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS AND EVEN WITH THE
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.


THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMINESS. A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW-MID LEVEL CAA SUGGEST A BREEZY DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THEN KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT WHERE IT CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH
IN THE 19-3Z TIMEFRAME...BUT HOLD OF ON THUNDER MENTION WITH
FAIRLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING MT. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ND TODAY AND
IMPACTING OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME
PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
POPS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY STORMS DISSIPATE. CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY WEAK AROUND 30
KTS SO THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS
ALL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS
GOING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
START WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO MT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MAINLY WEDESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS AND EVEN WITH THE
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.


THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMINESS. A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW-MID LEVEL CAA SUGGEST A BREEZY DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THEN KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT WHERE IT CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH
IN THE 19-3Z TIMEFRAME...BUT HOLD OF ON THUNDER MENTION WITH
FAIRLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED...SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR...BUT FOR NOW FEEL ITS NOT WORTH
A MENTION WITH THE HRRR NOT INDICATING ANY LOW VSBYS...BUT
SOMETHING FOR THE MID SHIFT TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT WHERE IT CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH
IN THE 19-3Z TIMEFRAME...BUT HOLD OF ON THUNDER MENTION WITH
FAIRLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 312333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A BIT THROUGH 6Z...AND DRY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 312333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A BIT THROUGH 6Z...AND DRY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 312005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 311444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER) MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FORCING WILL
PROPAGATE E/NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (AS
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES IN THIS DIRECTION). ADJUSTED POPS/WX
ACCORDINGLY (RAISED POP VALUES TO NEAR 100% WHERE THIS STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWERED POP VALUES TO 10%-20% FOR OTHER
AREAS).

SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOST NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. IN FACT...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA...AND THAT ANY NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EAST OF THIS FA. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW INSTABILITY SETS
UP (WHERE ANY CLEARING MIGHT OCCUR)...AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE
SFC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER AND STRONG THUNDER
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT SHOULD
KNOW MORE BY THE 100PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 311444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER) MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FORCING WILL
PROPAGATE E/NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (AS
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES IN THIS DIRECTION). ADJUSTED POPS/WX
ACCORDINGLY (RAISED POP VALUES TO NEAR 100% WHERE THIS STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWERED POP VALUES TO 10%-20% FOR OTHER
AREAS).

SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOST NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. IN FACT...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA...AND THAT ANY NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EAST OF THIS FA. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW INSTABILITY SETS
UP (WHERE ANY CLEARING MIGHT OCCUR)...AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE
SFC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER AND STRONG THUNDER
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT SHOULD
KNOW MORE BY THE 100PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311210
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHEAST 30KTS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNDER 700 MB CAA. AREA HAS GRADUALLY SLOWED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING.
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS AIDED BY 850MB MOIST TRANSPORT AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS. LATEST HRRR AND 03Z HOPWRF SUPPORT THESE
TRENDS THROUGH 18Z. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/WX/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND HIGH-RES MODEL FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND...AND SHOULD ENTER THE
FAR WESTERN FA AROUND 6Z. I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRENGTH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...WITH PWATS RISING FROM
0.7 CURRENTLY TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.
THIS COUPLED WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG OF 850MB CAPE AND A VERY TIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ONCE CONVECTION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND...AND SHOULD ENTER THE
FAR WESTERN FA AROUND 6Z. I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRENGTH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...WITH PWATS RISING FROM
0.7 CURRENTLY TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.
THIS COUPLED WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG OF 850MB CAPE AND A VERY TIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ONCE CONVECTION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER W CNTRL MN
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AWAY...HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
PRECIP OVER ERN MT ALMOST INTO WILLISTON...ND AREA. 12Z GFS CAME
IN A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP IN WRN ZONES AND HAVE NOW REMOVED POPS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS CHANGES BEYOND 06Z AT NEXT
SCHEDULED DISCUSSION (21Z).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER W CNTRL MN
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AWAY...HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
PRECIP OVER ERN MT ALMOST INTO WILLISTON...ND AREA. 12Z GFS CAME
IN A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP IN WRN ZONES AND HAVE NOW REMOVED POPS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS CHANGES BEYOND 06Z AT NEXT
SCHEDULED DISCUSSION (21Z).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED...BUT CLEARING HAS SLOWED A BIT JUST A TAD SLOWER
THAN EARLIER RAP MODEL INDICATED. THUS BACKED OFF A LITTLE IN THE
GRIDS WITH TIMING. AVIATION TAFS APPEAR OK. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO
DVL REGION AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR THERE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE FOG MENTIONED AND DONT SEE ENOUGH OF AN
IN ISSUE AS CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS OK. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES LEFTOVER AROUND BEMIDJI-
FOSSTON SO KEPT ISOLD -RW TIL 05Z IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTN-EVE.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED...BUT CLEARING HAS SLOWED A BIT JUST A TAD SLOWER
THAN EARLIER RAP MODEL INDICATED. THUS BACKED OFF A LITTLE IN THE
GRIDS WITH TIMING. AVIATION TAFS APPEAR OK. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO
DVL REGION AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR THERE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE FOG MENTIONED AND DONT SEE ENOUGH OF AN
IN ISSUE AS CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS OK. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES LEFTOVER AROUND BEMIDJI-
FOSSTON SO KEPT ISOLD -RW TIL 05Z IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTN-EVE.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300310
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED...BUT CLEARING HAS SLOWED A BIT JUST A TAD SLOWER
THAN EARLIER RAP MODEL INDICATED. THUS BACKED OFF A LITTLE IN THE
GRIDS WITH TIMING. AVIATION TAFS APPEAR OK. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO
DVL REGION AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR THERE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE FOG MENTIONED AND DONT SEE ENOUGH OF AN
IN ISSUE AS CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS OK. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES LEFTOVER AROUND BEMIDJI-
FOSSTON SO KEPT ISOLD -RW TIL 05Z IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MONITORING WIND SHIFT WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO FARGO AND
WILL BE INTO BEMIDJI SOON. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AT GFK WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOW AT DVL AND TVF. ALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW END VFR CIGS IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE AHD OF FRONT
AND ON TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN.
TIMING OF CLEARING KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS PREV FCST...02Z
DVL/06-7Z GFK/10Z TVF/12-15Z FAR-BJI. GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER IN WCNTRL MN
INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300310
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED...BUT CLEARING HAS SLOWED A BIT JUST A TAD SLOWER
THAN EARLIER RAP MODEL INDICATED. THUS BACKED OFF A LITTLE IN THE
GRIDS WITH TIMING. AVIATION TAFS APPEAR OK. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO
DVL REGION AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR THERE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE FOG MENTIONED AND DONT SEE ENOUGH OF AN
IN ISSUE AS CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS OK. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES LEFTOVER AROUND BEMIDJI-
FOSSTON SO KEPT ISOLD -RW TIL 05Z IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MONITORING WIND SHIFT WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO FARGO AND
WILL BE INTO BEMIDJI SOON. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AT GFK WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOW AT DVL AND TVF. ALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW END VFR CIGS IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE AHD OF FRONT
AND ON TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN.
TIMING OF CLEARING KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS PREV FCST...02Z
DVL/06-7Z GFK/10Z TVF/12-15Z FAR-BJI. GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER IN WCNTRL MN
INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 292349
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

COORD WITH WFO BIS A BIT EARLIER FOR POP/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM WASKISH THROUGH FOSSTON TO FARGO TO FORMAN ND
AT 2330Z. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG IT AND MOSTLY CONFINED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM BTWN FOSSTON/CROOKSTON NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAUDETTE. STILL KEPT ISOLD SHOWER WORDING AHEAD AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DID DROP POPS IN THE FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST AGAINST BIS FCST AREA AS FRONT WELL EAST. DRIER
AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN
INTO CENTRAL ND AND BEST CLEARING PROGGED INTO THAT REGION
TONIGHT. THUS DROPPED LOWS A BIT TO INCLUDE MID 40S IN AREAS FROM
CAVALIER TO LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE. OTHERWISE TEMPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS PROGGED TO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHERN RRV INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MONITORING WIND SHIFT WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO FARGO AND
WILL BE INTO BEMIDJI SOON. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AT GFK WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOW AT DVL AND TVF. ALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW END VFR CIGS IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE AHD OF FRONT
AND ON TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN.
TIMING OF CLEARING KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS PREV FCST...02Z
DVL/06-7Z GFK/10Z TVF/12-15Z FAR-BJI. GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER IN WCNTRL MN
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292349
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

COORD WITH WFO BIS A BIT EARLIER FOR POP/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM WASKISH THROUGH FOSSTON TO FARGO TO FORMAN ND
AT 2330Z. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG IT AND MOSTLY CONFINED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM BTWN FOSSTON/CROOKSTON NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAUDETTE. STILL KEPT ISOLD SHOWER WORDING AHEAD AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DID DROP POPS IN THE FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST AGAINST BIS FCST AREA AS FRONT WELL EAST. DRIER
AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN
INTO CENTRAL ND AND BEST CLEARING PROGGED INTO THAT REGION
TONIGHT. THUS DROPPED LOWS A BIT TO INCLUDE MID 40S IN AREAS FROM
CAVALIER TO LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE. OTHERWISE TEMPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS PROGGED TO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHERN RRV INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MONITORING WIND SHIFT WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO FARGO AND
WILL BE INTO BEMIDJI SOON. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AT GFK WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOW AT DVL AND TVF. ALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW END VFR CIGS IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE AHD OF FRONT
AND ON TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN.
TIMING OF CLEARING KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS PREV FCST...02Z
DVL/06-7Z GFK/10Z TVF/12-15Z FAR-BJI. GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER IN WCNTRL MN
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291955
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291955
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING WIDENING CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA...RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. HAVE
REDUCED POPS ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE CWA AND INCREASED TO ABOUT 40S
THE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND. SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ND ARE BEGINNING TO THIN AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL A GOOD 5 DEG COOLER SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS AT
THIS POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY DRIFTING OUT OF CWA. ALSO A STRONG STORM SOUTH OF MANITOBA
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE CONUS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW COUNTY IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER THAT LONG. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS. WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MN...POPS FOR THE SHARP SFC
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY SEEM REASONABLE. WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF SKY BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME
SOLAR FOR AFTN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR CAN GET
THROUGH SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW END OF CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND CHANGED OVER TO RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING WIDENING CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA...RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. HAVE
REDUCED POPS ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE CWA AND INCREASED TO ABOUT 40S
THE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND. SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ND ARE BEGINNING TO THIN AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL A GOOD 5 DEG COOLER SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS AT
THIS POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY DRIFTING OUT OF CWA. ALSO A STRONG STORM SOUTH OF MANITOBA
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE CONUS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW COUNTY IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER THAT LONG. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS. WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MN...POPS FOR THE SHARP SFC
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY SEEM REASONABLE. WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF SKY BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME
SOLAR FOR AFTN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR CAN GET
THROUGH SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW END OF CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND CHANGED OVER TO RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291454
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY DRIFTING OUT OF CWA. ALSO A STRONG STORM SOUTH OF MANITOBA
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE CONUS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW COUNTY IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER THAT LONG. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS. WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MN...POPS FOR THE SHARP SFC
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY SEEM REASONABLE. WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF SKY BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME
SOLAR FOR AFTN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR CAN GET
THROUGH SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW END OF CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND CHANGED OVER TO RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SRN VALLEY AND INTO LAKES
COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291157
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MIDAFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SRN VALLEY AND INTO LAKES
COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291157
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MIDAFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SRN VALLEY AND INTO LAKES
COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING. AREAS MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...GUST









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