Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KFGF 241150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM ADJUSTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING RAIN BAND. FARTHER WEST DROPPED
POPS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON RADAR AND CLOUD TRENDS.
INCLUDED FOG MENTION OVER THE DVL BASIN WITH SOME DENSE FOG OVER
THE FAR NW FA. AT THIS POINT DENSE FOG OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA SO HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH WIDE VARIETY OF CIGS
ACROSS THE FA. SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT DVL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY RAIN AREA TODAY EXPECTED TO BE FROM VALLEY EAST
AND WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SOME DRYING WILL BE WORKING INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BREAK OUT
CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON TSRA TO
VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL TODAY OR FROM
THE BJI-PKD AREA TO DVL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES








000
FXUS63 KFGF 240450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ON RADAR HAS DIMINISHED AND SHIFTED
EAST. TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW FELL AROUND BJI THIS EVENING IN
A POCKET OF COOLER AIR IN THE EASTERN ZONES. HAS SINCE SWITCHED BACK
TO RAIN. WINDS STILL RELATIVELY STRONG AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A RAIN SNOW MIX HAS BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN BECKER, HUBBARD AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS FELL BELOW 35 OR 36 DEGREES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS MARGINALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH MOST
OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL ADD
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND KEPT THE SAME OR INCREASED TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL TODAY OR FROM
THE BJI-PKD AREA TO DVL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240212
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A RAIN SNOW MIX HAS BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN BECKER, HUBBARD AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS FELL BELOW 35 OR 36 DEGREES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS MARGINALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH MOST
OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL ADD
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND KEPT THE SAME OR INCREASED TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXISTS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WAS FALLING WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDED FROM DVL TO PKD. CIGS WERE
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER EASTERN ND EARLY THU MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXISTS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WAS FALLING WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDED FROM DVL TO PKD. CIGS WERE
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER EASTERN ND EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 232000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CANDO TO GRAND FORKS/FARGO TO
FERGUS FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.
CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POCKETS.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS SECOND BAND. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
LIMITED. AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TO THE WEST (THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS) AS FORCING
AGAIN INCREASES. THE MAIN UPDATE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z AS THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEAKENS (SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROPAGATING VERY
SLOW). THUS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MAKE
MUCH MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
(UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST)...850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA...AND
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL INITIATE AND MOVE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FA. UPDATES POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THINKING ABOVE.

THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...INCLUDING
THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CANDO TO GRAND FORKS/FARGO TO
FERGUS FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.
CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POCKETS.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS SECOND BAND. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...ROGERS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z AS THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEAKENS (SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROPAGATING VERY
SLOW). THUS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MAKE
MUCH MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
(UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST)...850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA...AND
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL INITIATE AND MOVE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FA. UPDATES POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THINKING ABOVE.

THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...INCLUDING
THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY WITH TIMING OF RAIN AREA
LIFTING SLOWLY NE. SO FAR CIGS WITHIN THE RAIN REMAINING VFR WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 3-4MILES AT TIMES. BIT QUESTION IS HOW THIS RAIN WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. I COULD POSSIBLY BE TO
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST BUT TOUGH. UPDATES LATER THIS
MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. SE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WINDY
BY NOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN UPDATE CHALLENGES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS AS
RAIN BAND LIFTS SLOWLY NE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AS
DEW POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAIN ARE STILL IN THE 20S. BAND
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE AROUND 10-15KTS. AS A RESULT BACKED OFF ON
POPS FARTHER NORTHEAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY WITH TIMING OF RAIN AREA
LIFTING SLOWLY NE. SO FAR CIGS WITHIN THE RAIN REMAINING VFR WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 3-4MILES AT TIMES. BIT QUESTION IS HOW THIS RAIN WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. I COULD POSSIBLY BE TO
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST BUT TOUGH. UPDATES LATER THIS
MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. SE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WINDY
BY NOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN
THE MORNING. RAIN COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE AT
TIMES...BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3000 FT. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST BAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WENT A BIT MORE BULLISH ON RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP...BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS A LACK OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S. WITH RADAR RETURNS STILL HANGING SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT RAMPED THEM UP QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ECHOES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD BUT STRONGER SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME QPF INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. WENT DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WITH AN
ISOLATED MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN
THE MORNING. RAIN COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE AT
TIMES...BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3000 FT. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST BAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WENT A BIT MORE BULLISH ON RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP...BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 230242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ECHOES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD BUT STRONGER SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME QPF INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. WENT DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WITH AN
ISOLATED MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CIGS OF AROUND 4000-7000 FT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RAIN SLIGHTLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO KDVL AS THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN AREAS WITH
RAIN. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. THE BAND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KDVL BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW WITH MORE PREVAILING RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CIGS OF AROUND 4000-7000 FT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RAIN SLIGHTLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO KDVL AS THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN AREAS WITH
RAIN. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. THE BAND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KDVL BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW WITH MORE PREVAILING RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR









000
FXUS63 KFGF 222031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM DT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO.  LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST BREEZE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  -RA MENTION FOR ALL BUT KBJI
BY THAT TIME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES NEEDED.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA...BISECTING MINNESOTA FROM WARROAD TO WORTHINGTON...WITH
A SPLAY OF VFR STRATUS SHOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN
FROM PARK RAPIDS...THROUGH BEMIDJI AND BLACKDUCK...UP INTO
WINNIPEG. EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS... AHEAD OF
THE LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
WY/MT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN BY
LATE EVENING... WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS DECK IN NORTHWEST MN SHUD
THIN AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE... THIN HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS AND HAZY SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING EXTENDED RAIN EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SO NOT SURPRISING THAT MODELS SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON THURSDAY WITH STRENGTH OF
SECONDARY LOW PASSAGE. OTHERWISE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY BR DEVELOPMENT. WITH ADVANCING CI SHIELD THINK ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH THE NE THE COOLEST UNDER COOLER AIR.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES NEAR AN INCH WORK INTO THE SW FA AROUND 06Z SLOWLY LIFTING
NE OVERNIGHT. FEEL IT WILL TAKE INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LATE EVENING TO GET ANY PCPN GOING SO KEPT LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ARC OF RAIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DRIER
E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP NE 1/3 OF FA DRY MOST OF THE DAY AND
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE SO NO MENTION
OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE FA. DRY SLOTTING WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE RAIN
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. COLUMN FAIRLY MILD SO NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY. GFS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE. WITH BETTER DEVELOPED LOW WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FOR MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO COLDER LEADING TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH DIFFERENCES DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM DT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO.  LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST BREEZE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  -RA MENTION FOR ALL BUT KBJI
BY THAT TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA...BISECTING MIONNESOTA FROM WARROD TO WORTHINGTON...WITH
A SPLAY OF VFR STRATUS SHOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN
FROM PARK RAPIDS...THROUGH BEMIDJI AND BLACKDUCK...UP INTO
WINNIPEG. EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS... AHEAD OF
THE LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
WY/MT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESURE WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN BY
LATE EVENING... WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS DECK IN NORTHEWEST MN SHUD
THIN AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE... THIN HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT
WINDS AND HAZY SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING EXTENDED RAIN EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SO NOT SURPRISING THAT MODELS SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON THURSDAY WITH STRENGTH OF
SECONDARY LOW PASSAGE. OTHERWISE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY BR DEVELOPMENT. WITH ADVANCING CI SHIELD THINK ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH THE NE THE COOLEST UNDER COOLER AIR.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES NEAR AN INCH WORK INTO THE SW FA AROUND 06Z SLOWLY LIFTING
NE OVERNIGHT. FEEL IT WILL TAKE INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LATE EVENING TO GET ANY PCPN GOING SO KEPT LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ARC OF RAIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DRIER
E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP NE 1/3 OF FA DRY MOST OF THE DAY AND
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE SO NO MENTION
OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE FA. DRY SLOTTING WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE RAIN
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. COLUMN FAIRLY MILD SO NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY. GFS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE. WITH BETTER DEVELOPED LOW WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FOR MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO COLDER LEADING TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH DIFFERENCES DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A SMALL BAND OF VFR CIGS OVR TVF AND BJI SITES SHUD DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING CI ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING WITH ANY SHRA OVER SW FA LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING EXTENDED RAIN EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SO NOT SURPRISING THAT MODELS SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON THURSDAY WITH STRENGTH OF
SECONDARY LOW PASSAGE. OTHERWISE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY BR DEVELOPMENT. WITH ADVANCING CI SHIELD THINK ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH THE NE THE COOLEST UNDER COOLER AIR.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES NEAR AN INCH WORK INTO THE SW FA AROUND 06Z SLOWLY LIFTING
NE OVERNIGHT. FEEL IT WILL TAKE INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LATE EVENING TO GET ANY PCPN GOING SO KEPT LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ARC OF RAIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DRIER
E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP NE 1/3 OF FA DRY MOST OF THE DAY AND
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE SO NO MENTION
OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE FA. DRY SLOTTING WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE RAIN
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. COLUMN FAIRLY MILD SO NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY. GFS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE. WITH BETTER DEVELOPED LOW WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FOR MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO COLDER LEADING TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH DIFFERENCES DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF BR CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING TAF SITES SHOULD
DISSIPATE MID MORNING. A SMALL BAND OF VFR CIGS MAY CLIP THE TVF
AND BJI SITES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING CI ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING WITH ANY SHRA OVER SW FA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING EXTENDED RAIN EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SO NOT SURPRISING THAT MODELS SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON THURSDAY WITH STRENGTH OF
SECONDARY LOW PASSAGE. OTHERWISE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST.

IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY BR DEVELOPMENT. WITH ADVANCING CI SHIELD THINK ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH THE NE THE COOLEST UNDER COOLER AIR.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES NEAR AN INCH WORK INTO THE SW FA AROUND 06Z SLOWLY LIFTING
NE OVERNIGHT. FEEL IT WILL TAKE INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE LATE EVENING TO GET ANY PCPN GOING SO KEPT LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ARC OF RAIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DRIER
E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP NE 1/3 OF FA DRY MOST OF THE DAY AND
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE SO NO MENTION
OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE FA. DRY SLOTTING WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE RAIN
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. COLUMN FAIRLY MILD SO NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY. GFS DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURE. WITH BETTER DEVELOPED LOW WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD FOR MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO COLDER LEADING TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH DIFFERENCES DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SOME MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF FOG FORMATION AND THE HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF THIS.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG ON LONGER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AND CIRRUS IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FOG MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST KEEP AN EYE
ON THINGS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AS
EXPECTED AFTER WE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AND WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND DOWN INTO THE 30S BY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A TAD THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEEP
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 220241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AS
EXPECTED AFTER WE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AND WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND DOWN INTO THE 30S BY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A TAD THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEEP
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 4000-7000 FT AT KGFK...KTVF...AND KDVL
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 12 KTS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A TAD THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEEP
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 4000-7000 FT AT KGFK...KTVF...AND KDVL
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 12 KTS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 212016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
RAISE/DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON... WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR IN NORTHWEST MN BY EVENING. ELSE... FEW CLOUDS IN EASTERN ND
WILL GIVE RISE TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY PRETTY QUICKLY NOW. REST OF THE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WHILE AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS
FOR A WHILE YET. TEMPS STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT ARE STILL IN LINE TO RISE INTO THE 50S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND UPCOMING PCPN
CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER
LOW TRACK AND WHERE ASSOCIATED MAIN RAIN BAND WILL SET UP. HELD
PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR TODAY COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY MORNING. COOLER
COLUMN IN PLACE WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT ACROSS NE FA THIS
AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND/COLD ADVECTION STRATUS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO DROP THROUGH FA THIS MORNING. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL NO DOUBT BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
BUT JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. MAINTAINED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO INHERITED INHERITED VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING WIND AND MAINLY
SKC SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE TO FREEZING.

TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME THERMAL RECOVERY WITH INCREASED MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION.

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST SHOULD
SEE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFT MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES INTO THE FA LOOKS LIKE A RESPECTABLE RAIN
EVENT SETTING UP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER LOW
TRACK AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE MAIN RAIN BAND SETS UP
BUT OVERALL FOR NOW LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. AS MODELS COME TOGETHER LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
THUNDER POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FA.

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK. MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM THE DRY SLOT ACROSS E ND AND THE END OF THE WAA PCPN
BAND IN NW MN TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING AND DRAGGING A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTH
WINDS. SFC HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A COOL END OF APRIL WEEKEND.
TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW END OF APRIL NORMALS...40S AND
50S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
RAISE/DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON... WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR IN NORTHWEST MN BY EVENING. ELSE... FEW CLOUDS IN EASTERN ND
WILL GIVE RISE TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST








000
FXUS63 KFGF 211445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

PRETTY SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FA RIGHT
NOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS AND WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF LESSER CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AND
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE MORE TOO. OVERALL A BLUSTERY AND
COOLER DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND UPCOMING PCPN
CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER
LOW TRACK AND WHERE ASSOCIATED MAIN RAIN BAND WILL SET UP. HELD
PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR TODAY COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY MORNING. COOLER
COLUMN IN PLACE WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT ACROSS NE FA THIS
AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND/COLD ADVECTION STRATUS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO DROP THROUGH FA THIS MORNING. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL NO DOUBT BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
BUT JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. MAINTAINED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO INHERITED INHERITED VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING WIND AND MAINLY
SKC SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE TO FREEZING.

TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME THERMAL RECOVERY WITH INCREASED MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION.

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST SHOULD
SEE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFT MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES INTO THE FA LOOKS LIKE A RESPECTABLE RAIN
EVENT SETTING UP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER LOW
TRACK AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE MAIN RAIN BAND SETS UP
BUT OVERALL FOR NOW LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. AS MODELS COME TOGETHER LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
THUNDER POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FA.

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK. MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM THE DRY SLOT ACROSS E ND AND THE END OF THE WAA PCPN
BAND IN NW MN TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING AND DRAGGING A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTH
WINDS. SFC HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A COOL END OF APRIL WEEKEND.
TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW END OF APRIL NORMALS...40S AND
50S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities