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000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281523
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

INITIAL BAND OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA WAS SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL WINKLER MB TO PEMBINA ND REGION. THESE ARE
WEAKENING. QUESTION WILL BE RE-DEVELOPMENT. UPSTREAM WIND FIELD IS
QUITE CHAOTIC AND HARD TO TELL WHERE ANY TROUGH IS LOCATED. THAT
SAID SOME LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITH THE REMAINING SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH COULD HELP RE-FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE THAT TO OCCUR POSSIBLY JMS-FAR-BJI AREA 21Z-00Z PERIOD.
DID ADJUST POPS A BIT TO INCREASE THEM THIS MORNING AND ADJUST A
TAD FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281523
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

INITIAL BAND OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA WAS SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL WINKLER MB TO PEMBINA ND REGION. THESE ARE
WEAKENING. QUESTION WILL BE RE-DEVELOPMENT. UPSTREAM WIND FIELD IS
QUITE CHAOTIC AND HARD TO TELL WHERE ANY TROUGH IS LOCATED. THAT
SAID SOME LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITH THE REMAINING SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH COULD HELP RE-FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE THAT TO OCCUR POSSIBLY JMS-FAR-BJI AREA 21Z-00Z PERIOD.
DID ADJUST POPS A BIT TO INCREASE THEM THIS MORNING AND ADJUST A
TAD FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281208
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDE THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
MOST EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JMS-FSE-VWU AND INTO
THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING THROUGH ROSEAU AND LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTIES... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO FAR NORTHEASTER ND THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 281208
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDE THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
MOST EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JMS-FSE-VWU AND INTO
THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING THROUGH ROSEAU AND LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTIES... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO FAR NORTHEASTER ND THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281208
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDE THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
MOST EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JMS-FSE-VWU AND INTO
THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING THROUGH ROSEAU AND LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTIES... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO FAR NORTHEASTER ND THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281208
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDE THIS EARLY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
MOST EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JMS-FSE-VWU AND INTO
THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING THROUGH ROSEAU AND LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTIES... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO FAR NORTHEASTER ND THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTAL MINESOTA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES
THIS FORENOON... WITH SCT TSTMS REDEVELOPING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE
AFTERNONN INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR/GUST





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT BEMIDJI AND FOSSTON VISIBILITY HAS ALSO
GONE DOWN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...WE HAVE
SEEN SOME FOG FORMATION AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN STRENGTHENS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FAR AS VIS...VERY HIT AND MISS. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT
PATCHY FOG...STARTING IN THE EAST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
THE LOWEST AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.
THINK THAT THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VIS AT KBJI HAS GONE DOWN TO 1/2SM. FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND VIS IN
AND OUT...SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AND THEN GOING UP TO 1SM BY
09Z...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF VARIATION
IN A SHORT PERIOD. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES BUT PATCHY NATURE MAKES IT UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TAF SITE. WILL KEEP IT OUT AND AMEND AS NEEDED. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES...THEN DIMINISH DOWN TO LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KDVL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT BEMIDJI AND FOSSTON VISIBILITY HAS ALSO
GONE DOWN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...WE HAVE
SEEN SOME FOG FORMATION AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN STRENGTHENS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FAR AS VIS...VERY HIT AND MISS. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT
PATCHY FOG...STARTING IN THE EAST WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
THE LOWEST AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.
THINK THAT THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VIS AT KBJI HAS GONE DOWN TO 1/2SM. FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND VIS IN
AND OUT...SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AND THEN GOING UP TO 1SM BY
09Z...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF VARIATION
IN A SHORT PERIOD. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES BUT PATCHY NATURE MAKES IT UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TAF SITE. WILL KEEP IT OUT AND AMEND AS NEEDED. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES...THEN DIMINISH DOWN TO LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KDVL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 280240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
BE TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD GET
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOW OFF FROM THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW
KEPT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SOME 3000-4000 FT CIGS AT
KTVF AND KBJI HAVE HAD THEM FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK WE SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
LEVEL CIGS BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272021
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272021
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING THRU SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SW MINNESOTA INTO NW IOWA. MOISTURE AREA MORE GENEROUS
IN THIS AREA AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-
FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY IN THE AREA SO NO
RAIN NOTED. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE
BRING SOME RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO FAR NE ND/NRN MN. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MORE AGRESSIVE...ESP WITH ECMWF IN HAVING PRECIP FRI
EVENING BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GFK-FAR). THIS SEEMS TOO
MUCH AS STRENGTH OF WAVE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES WHERE PREV FCSTS HAVE HAD
THEM...HIGHEST OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND...WITH WARMEST
DAY ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. LOOK FOR 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY....WITH AROUND 90 WEST OF THE RED RIVER LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH A BIT BETTER SFC GRADIENT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 28-30C AT
850 MB SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR ALL THE CONUS MINUS THE PAC NW. ALMOST
DAILY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE WEAK SFC TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL LOW FOR WIDE
SPREAD RAIN. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA FOR WED
AND THURS...PUSHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ENOUGH TO TAME TEMPS DOWN
A TAD...MOST NOTICEABLE IT SEEMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW
MN AS WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST. SO LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A FEW
RRV AND EAST. O/W ANY PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND WILL DO SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ENOUGH TO TAME TEMPS DOWN
A TAD...MOST NOTICEABLE IT SEEMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW
MN AS WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST. SO LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A FEW
RRV AND EAST. O/W ANY PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND WILL DO SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ENOUGH TO TAME TEMPS DOWN
A TAD...MOST NOTICEABLE IT SEEMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW
MN AS WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST. SO LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A FEW
RRV AND EAST. O/W ANY PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND WILL DO SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ENOUGH TO TAME TEMPS DOWN
A TAD...MOST NOTICEABLE IT SEEMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW
MN AS WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST. SO LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A FEW
RRV AND EAST. O/W ANY PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND WILL DO SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION ACROSS SD PROPAGATING SE AND ECHOES OVER THE SW FA
DIMINISHING. BASED ON FAVORED SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN FA WILL GET ANY PCPN TODAY. KEPT THE
MORNING DRY BUT FOR NOW HELD ON TO LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271143
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION ACROSS SD PROPAGATING SE AND ECHOES OVER THE SW FA
DIMINISHING. BASED ON FAVORED SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN FA WILL GET ANY PCPN TODAY. KEPT THE
MORNING DRY BUT FOR NOW HELD ON TO LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR FOSSTON...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S ALREADY THERE AND SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR FOSSTON...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S ALREADY THERE AND SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR FOSSTON...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S ALREADY THERE AND SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR FOSSTON...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S ALREADY THERE AND SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 262345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 262345
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 262038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 10 KTS (POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS EARLY THURSDAY) AND PATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.|


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NRN EDGE OF SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCU DEVELOPING INTO FAR SE ND SO
UPPED SKY COVER A BIT THERE. OTHEWISE FCST IS GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 10 KTS (POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS EARLY THURSDAY) AND PATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.|




&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NRN EDGE OF SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCU DEVELOPING INTO FAR SE ND SO
UPPED SKY COVER A BIT THERE. OTHEWISE FCST IS GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 10 KTS (POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS EARLY THURSDAY) AND PATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.|




&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NRN EDGE OF SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCU DEVELOPING INTO FAR SE ND SO
UPPED SKY COVER A BIT THERE. OTHEWISE FCST IS GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 10 KTS (POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS EARLY THURSDAY) AND PATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.|




&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261510
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPS TWEEKED UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA.  O/W GOOD.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261510
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPS TWEEKED UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA.  O/W GOOD.

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261137
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261137
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261137
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 260434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260244
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260244
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR





000
FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR





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