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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND
COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 7000 FEET ELEVATION IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AFFECTS THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA
TO PAYSON EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND
COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 7000 FEET ELEVATION IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AFFECTS THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA
TO PAYSON EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO
EMPHASIZE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WIND
ALOFT...TONIGHT`S LOW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A BRIEF SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES (WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS).

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. THE
DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO
NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT
DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA TO PAYSON
EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301617
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 AM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY WITH OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(405 AM MST)...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CROSSING ARIZONA. MAX
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN HALVES OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO SHOULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY.
THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
FASTEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER ALOFT (ON SATURDAY) AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...THE
LATEST PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS OUT OF
ARIZONA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PERIODIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ/DL
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301108
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CROSSING ARIZONA. MAX
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN HALVES OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO SHOULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY.
THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
FASTEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER ALOFT (ON SATURDAY) AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...THE
LATEST PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS OUT OF
ARIZONA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PERIODIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL COOL NIGHTS THROUGH HALLOWEEN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TO BREEZY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BECOMING
WINDY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING (NOT AS COLD AS NORMAL FOR A
HALLOWEEN EVENING). BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD. LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL NEAR OR JUST
BELOW THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MOVING THE TROUGH
WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS OVER ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING (NOT AS COLD AS NORMAL FOR A
HALLOWEEN EVENING). BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD. LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL NEAR OR JUST
BELOW THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MOVING THE TROUGH
WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(330 AM MST)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA DELIVERING
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS REALLY NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS
SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES
SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 7000 FEET BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNDER
WEAK UPWARD MOTION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING A WEAK LOW SPINNING UP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THIS TIME
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND DRY BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING
AND EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290936
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA DELIVERING
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS REALLY NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS
SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES
SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 7000 FEET BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNDER
WEAK UPWARD MOTION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING A WEAK LOW SPINNING UP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THIS TIME
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND DRY BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING
AND EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290350
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
TO OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION INTO
A WINDIER AND COLDER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. 700MB TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST FEW SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE
FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BREEZY TO WINDY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW FLAT CUMULUS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF TO AROUND FOREST LAKES/HEBER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT
WINDS.  VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PEAKS OVER ARIZONA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK AND HOUSE ROCK
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. BOTH THE EC AND
GFS ARE SHOWING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS STORM. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COOLEST OF THIS FALL SEASON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BREEZY TO WINDY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW FLAT CUMULUS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF TO AROUND FOREST LAKES/HEBER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT
WINDS.  VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PEAKS OVER ARIZONA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK AND HOUSE ROCK
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. BOTH THE EC AND
GFS ARE SHOWING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS STORM. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING MAY BE THE
COOLEST OF THIS FALL SEASON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281610
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BREEZY TO WINDY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES IS
MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR
STATEWIDE. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER SKY COVER. TEMPS ARE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND THE 12Z
SOUNDING DID SHOW 0-3C WARMING IN THE 775 TO 725MB LAYER THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND THE SAME TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD DELIVERING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN MOVING A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK AND HOUSE ROCK
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. MOISTURE LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INSISTING THAT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.10 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE
THE COOLEST OF THIS FALL SEASON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280948
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...BREEZY...COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD DELIVERING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN MOVING A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INSISTING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN THE 0.10 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z TODAY
THEN CLEARING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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