000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192214
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARIZONA AS WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ASIDE
FROM THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START A WARMING TREND TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS RETURNING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH RIM GCNP TO WINDOW ROCK.
THESE STORMS ARE DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE AZ
UT BORDER. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WILL
BECOME WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE WINDS IN NORTHERN AZ WILL BE INCREASING AS DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW SETTLING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A STALLED COLD
FRONT RUNNING NE-SW FROM SW WYOMING THROUGH LAS VEGAS. CROSS
SECTIONS HERE SHOW DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS ARE RUNNING FROM 20-30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET IN COCONINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A STRONG PROBLEM CHILD SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. THURSDAYS WIND
FORECAST HERE BLENDS THE TWO MODELS...AND THIS FORECAST HAS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING MET IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW LOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WOULD
NEED TO BE INCREASED AROUND 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PROGS HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKENING WITH TIME
STARTING SATURDAY. ARIZONA REMAINS IN SW FLOW AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...THEN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING A FEW MPH EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND A ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA THREAT OVER FAR NORTHERN AZ
THROUGH 01Z-03Z MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON VILLAGE TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTER WINDS. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA THESE TWO DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WINDIEST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS LOOK TO BE A FEW MILES
PER HOUR UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH
HAINES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...TEC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191755
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1055 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH RIM GCNP TO WINDOW
ROCK PER RADAR TRENDS.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THERE IS
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM CEDAR CITY THROUGH ST
JOHNS. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE A STABILIZING AIRMASS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWED A DEEP STABLE LAYER ABOVE
525 MB. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN UTAH NOW THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. THIS
AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE
EXCEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
REDEVELOPING NORTH OF A KGCN TO KRQE LINE WITH ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA
THREAT OVER NE AZ THROUGH AROUND 01Z-03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON
VILLAGE TO WINDOW ROCK LINE TODAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...TEC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191748
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH RIM GCNP TO WINDOW
ROCK PER RADAR TRENDS.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THERE IS
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM CEDAR CITY THROUGH ST
JOHNS. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE A STABILIZING AIRMASS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWED A DEEP STABLE LAYER ABOVE
525 MB. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN UTAH NOW THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. THIS
AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE
EXCEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
REDEVELOPING NORTH OF A KGCN TO KRQE LINE WITH ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA
THREAT OVER NE AZ THROUGH AROUND 01Z-03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191633
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHINLE VALLEY AND
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THERE IS
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM CEDAR CITY THROUGH ST
JOHNS. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE A STABILIZING AIRMASS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWED A DEEP STABLE LAYER ABOVE
525 MB. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN UTAH NOW THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. THIS
AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE
EXCEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
REDEVELOPING NORTH OF A KGCN TO KRQE LINE WITH ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA
THREAT OVER NE AZ THROUGH AROUND 01Z-03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190954
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS YET ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHED. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY COOLISH WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
ON TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT WESTERLIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A LARGE PACIFIC LOW SETTLING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER A
DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE SPRING
WIND MACHINE WILL RETURN WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
EACH DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DELIVER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
COULD BE EXCEEDED ANY AFTERNOON STARTING WEDNESDAY...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A PAGE - WINSLOW -
ST. JOHNS LINE THIS MORNING. AFT 18Z...BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 14 KFT MSL REDEVELOPING EAST OF A KAYENTA TO WINDOW ROCK LINE
WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS ALOFT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190328
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN A WARMING
TREND STARTS TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE GROUND COOLS OFF STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A
HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO PERSISTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASES IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HAINES VALUES WILL RUN FROM MODERATE TO HIGH MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL COME CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...TC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182212
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN A WARMING TREND STARTS
TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PLUS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE
COMBING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED VIRGA...LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THEN END. ON SUNDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A SMALLER AREA OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WE EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO WINDOW ROCK. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 13 KFT MSL
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH....WITH ISOLD HIGH BASED
-TSRA/-SHRA...DISSIPATING BTWN 01Z-03Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR TSRA/SHRA. WEST WINDS DVLP AFT 18Z SUNDAY 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASES IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HAINES VALUES WILL RUN FROM MODERATE TO HIGH MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL COME CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...TEC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181622
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I 40. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS
TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS SAME AREA HAS
LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM -0.5 TO -2. WE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND BUMPED
UP POPS A FEW POINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISSUASION...300 AM
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD TODAY AND
MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA. DAYTIME WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS
LOW WILL PLACE ARIZONA UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH MEANS THE SPRING WIND MACHINE WILL RETURN IN ERNEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH....WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH BASED -TSRA/-SHRA...DISSIPATING BTWN 01-03Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR -TSRA/-SHRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTH. THOUGH LESS WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY...SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY
MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. A DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER A
POSSIBILITY.
&&
$$
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL / MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TEC / MCS
FIRE WEATHER...TEC / MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181005
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
STARTS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD TODAY AND
MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA. DAYTIME WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS
LOW WILL PLACE ARIZONA UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH MEANS THE SPRING WIND MACHINE WILL RETURN IN ERNEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
WATCH FOR UPDATES FOR THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. BKN CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 18 KFT MSL ACROSS
NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...CLEARING AFTER 15Z. AFT 18Z...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES
AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTH....WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SFC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
TODAY WILL BRING ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH. THOUGH LESS WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY...SOUTHERN
APACHE COUNTY MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. A DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER A
POSSIBILITY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180436
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
LESSEN...RESULTING IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY. A SECOND WEAKER
TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UTAH BORDER
REGION THIS EVENING...ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A THIRD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH
A DRIER TREND STARTING ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND UPWARD
APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW OUR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WATCH FOR UPDATES IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN AZ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AZ. BASES OCCASIONALLY AS LOW
AS 12KFT MSL NORTH OF I-40. AFT 18Z SAT...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES
AOA 14 KFT MSL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUPAI
TO FLAGSTAFF TO LUPTON. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY MAY
APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER THAN FRIDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT MAY APPROACH CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172229
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING UP
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH RADAR PICKING UP VERY LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN BE
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS
WIND OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY
AND WINDY PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR ARIZONA LATE NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN AZ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AZ. BASES OCCASIONALLY AS LOW
AS 12KFT MSL NORTH OF I-40. SFC WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10-25KT GUSTS
TO 35KT. FASTEST SPEEDS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND DIMINISHING
ALL AREAS AFT 02Z SAT. AFT 18Z SAT...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AOA
14 KFT MSL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TODAYS CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT MODEST MOISTURE COMBINE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUPAI TO
FLAGSTAFF TO LUPTON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE NUDGED IN
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LESS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT MAY NUDGE CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171551
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND IS PUSHING A WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ARIZONA. WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CA/WESTERN NV THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY AND PASS
OVER NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A RATHER ROBUST BAND OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN EASTERN AZ TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON
TO SPARK A LIGHT SHOWER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ BORDER WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...WILL BE IN
STORE BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BASES AS LOW AS 12KFT MSL NORTH OF I-40. SFC WINDS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 10-25KT GUSTS TO 35KT. FASTEST SPEEDS NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND DIMINISHING ALL AREAS AFT 02Z SAT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.
FOR SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LESS
WIND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MAS/MCS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/DB
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171027
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CA/WESTERN NV THIS
MORNING WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY AND PASS OVER NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A RATHER
ROBUST BAND OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN AZ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN
EASTERN AZ TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO SPARK A LIGHT SHOWER. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN AZ BORDER WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...WILL BE IN
STORE BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SW10-20G30KT...DIMINISHING AFT 02-03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.
FOR SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LESS
WIND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
| 
