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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270320
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY COME TO AN END AS THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD.
STILL, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z. FOR MONDAY...SURFACE
WINDS NE AT 10-20 KTS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WARMING
TREND ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
FURTHER WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270320
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY COME TO AN END AS THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD.
STILL, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z. FOR MONDAY...SURFACE
WINDS NE AT 10-20 KTS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WARMING
TREND ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
FURTHER WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD
POOL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG INTO NEW MEXICO BUT PLENTY OF
COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER ARIZONA AND HELPED FUEL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
BUT THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO AROUND THE
7000-7500 FT RANGE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER (MAINLY
APACHE COUNTY). OTHERWISE...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN
STORE. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE FEATURES. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FROM NW TO SE BY 01Z-03Z. EXPECT SCT
-SHRA AND HIGH ELEVATION -SHSN WITH ISOLD -TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ABV 7KFT MSL MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE
LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SFC WINDS NE
15-25KTS. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER APACHE COUNTY AND THE WHITE MTNS
AGAIN AFT 18Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WARMING
TREND ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
FURTHER WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD
POOL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG INTO NEW MEXICO BUT PLENTY OF
COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER ARIZONA AND HELPED FUEL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
BUT THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO AROUND THE
7000-7500 FT RANGE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER (MAINLY
APACHE COUNTY). OTHERWISE...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN
STORE. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE FEATURES. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FROM NW TO SE BY 01Z-03Z. EXPECT SCT
-SHRA AND HIGH ELEVATION -SHSN WITH ISOLD -TSRA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ABV 7KFT MSL MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE
LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SFC WINDS NE
15-25KTS. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER APACHE COUNTY AND THE WHITE MTNS
AGAIN AFT 18Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WARMING
TREND ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
FURTHER WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261645
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A DECREASING TREND
FROM EAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL REMAINS
OVERHEAD PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM FLAGSTAFF
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING GENERALLY
FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS OR IN A BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THOUGH AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
7000 FEET OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MONDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AZ...THEN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD BY
TUESDAY...CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY...THEN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z-01Z...DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...PRECIP OR STRATUS AND FOG.
SCT-NUMRS -SHRA/HIGH ELEVATION -SHSN WITH ISOLD -TSRA MAINLY EAST
OF KGCN TO KFLG TO KPAN LINE. SFC WINDS W-NW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VFR DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THE TREND OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OR
NORTHWEST TODAY. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WARMING ON
MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261645
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A DECREASING TREND
FROM EAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL REMAINS
OVERHEAD PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM FLAGSTAFF
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING GENERALLY
FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS OR IN A BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THOUGH AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO
7000 FEET OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MONDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AZ...THEN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD BY
TUESDAY...CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY...THEN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 23Z-01Z...DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...PRECIP OR STRATUS AND FOG.
SCT-NUMRS -SHRA/HIGH ELEVATION -SHSN WITH ISOLD -TSRA MAINLY EAST
OF KGCN TO KFLG TO KPAN LINE. SFC WINDS W-NW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VFR DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THE TREND OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OR
NORTHWEST TODAY. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WARMING ON
MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
440 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STEADY PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER WEST IN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6500 FEET.
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF WITH
2" AT WILLIAMS AND 4-5" AT BELLEMONT WITH SOME SNOW COVERED ROADS.
SNOW HAS ALSO LIKELY ACCUMULATED ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THOUGH AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
EASTWARD WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AZ...THEN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD
BY TUESDAY...CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY...THEN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH 18Z DUE TO PRECIP OR STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF A K0V7-KFLG KPRC LINE WILL SEE RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE DUE TO
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG.

AFT 18Z THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE AZ/NM BORDER.  AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
-SHRA AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS W-NW
10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AFT 00Z PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE
MEASURED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 0.40 INCH ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP
TO COVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. FURTHER
WEST EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AS A WARMING TREND COMMENCES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET ALL EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL BETWEEN ONE AND
FOUR INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER...WITH MUCH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /655 PM MST/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL
AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
KINW-KPRC-KPGA-KSEZ THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR
KINW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET ALL EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL BETWEEN ONE AND
FOUR INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER...WITH MUCH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /655 PM MST/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL
AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
KINW-KPRC-KPGA-KSEZ THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR
KINW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241551
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
851 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MORE BROAD TROUGH IS OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /505 AM MST/...
A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ESPECIALLY FROM 18Z-02Z
TODAY. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS 18Z-02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241207
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
505 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN110-130
GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS SW
15-25KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...THEN DIMINISH BY 02Z. BRIEF
MVFR AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TODAY WITH FEWER STORMS SATURDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241207
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
505 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN110-130
GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS SW
15-25KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...THEN DIMINISH BY 02Z. BRIEF
MVFR AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TODAY WITH FEWER STORMS SATURDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241207
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
505 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN110-130
GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS SW
15-25KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...THEN DIMINISH BY 02Z. BRIEF
MVFR AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TODAY WITH FEWER STORMS SATURDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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