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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK
TO PAYSON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD ACROSS NRN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...THOUGH SOME SFC
DEW POINT JUMPS ARE NOTED AT SEDONA AND PRESCOTT. FOR
TODAY...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. THE NORTHERN HALVES OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PROGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PHX AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SRN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. PW VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LEVEL OUT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THESE DAYS AND SOME
HEAVY RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN DROP TO CLIMO VALUES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KSEZ-KSJN LINE...WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A
KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SE OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT LEADING TO
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION / FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK
TO PAYSON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD ACROSS NRN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...THOUGH SOME SFC
DEW POINT JUMPS ARE NOTED AT SEDONA AND PRESCOTT. FOR
TODAY...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. THE NORTHERN HALVES OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PROGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PHX AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SRN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. PW VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LEVEL OUT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THESE DAYS AND SOME
HEAVY RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN DROP TO CLIMO VALUES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KSEZ-KSJN LINE...WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A
KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SE OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT LEADING TO
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION / FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK
TO PAYSON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD ACROSS NRN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...THOUGH SOME SFC
DEW POINT JUMPS ARE NOTED AT SEDONA AND PRESCOTT. FOR
TODAY...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. THE NORTHERN HALVES OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PROGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PHX AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SRN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. PW VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LEVEL OUT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THESE DAYS AND SOME
HEAVY RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN DROP TO CLIMO VALUES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KSEZ-KSJN LINE...WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A
KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SE OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT LEADING TO
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION / FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE EVENING
AND ADJUST FORECAST AS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF
OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE...WITH CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
REMAINING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE EVENING
AND ADJUST FORECAST AS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF
OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE...WITH CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
REMAINING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE EVENING
AND ADJUST FORECAST AS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF
OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE...WITH CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
REMAINING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP BTWN 17-19Z WEDNESDAY SE OF
A KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLD MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, STRONG
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP BTWN 17-19Z WEDNESDAY SE OF
A KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLD MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, STRONG
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
EAST OF THIS LINE, AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD
EXISTS. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS ARE UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS ABOVE 50F
HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. THIS MORNING`S OBSERVED AND FORECAST UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEAL ONLY LOW INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD OF LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLAGSTAFF. TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXIST.

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION - COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE. LOW SHEAR AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW MEANS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TODAY`S
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE
MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD
WILL FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
TODAY...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
EAST OF THIS LINE, AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD
EXISTS. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS ARE UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS ABOVE 50F
HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. THIS MORNING`S OBSERVED AND FORECAST UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEAL ONLY LOW INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD OF LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLAGSTAFF. TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXIST.

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION - COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE. LOW SHEAR AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW MEANS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TODAY`S
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE
MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD
WILL FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
TODAY...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
EAST OF THIS LINE, AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD
EXISTS. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS ARE UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS ABOVE 50F
HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. THIS MORNING`S OBSERVED AND FORECAST UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEAL ONLY LOW INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD OF LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLAGSTAFF. TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXIST.

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION - COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE. LOW SHEAR AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW MEANS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TODAY`S
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE
MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD
WILL FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
TODAY...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
EAST OF THIS LINE, AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD
EXISTS. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS ARE UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS ABOVE 50F
HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. THIS MORNING`S OBSERVED AND FORECAST UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEAL ONLY LOW INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD OF LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLAGSTAFF. TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXIST.

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION - COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE. LOW SHEAR AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW MEANS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR TODAY`S
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE
MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD
WILL FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
TODAY...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280318
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
818 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/... STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN
ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFTER 18Z
TUES...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW ROCK...WITH ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280318
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
818 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/... STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN
ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFTER 18Z
TUES...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW ROCK...WITH ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 02Z POSSIBLE SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SCT
ACTIVITY SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFT 18Z TUES...WITH
ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW
ROCK...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND
CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 02Z POSSIBLE SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SCT
ACTIVITY SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFT 18Z TUES...WITH
ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW
ROCK...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND
CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 02Z POSSIBLE SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SCT
ACTIVITY SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFT 18Z TUES...WITH
ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW
ROCK...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND
CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 02Z POSSIBLE SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SCT
ACTIVITY SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFT 18Z TUES...WITH
ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW
ROCK...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND
CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271708
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 AM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY LIMITED TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MAKING SHORT TERM EDITS TO INCREASE
WIND GUST SPEEDS TODAY...BUT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
OTHERWISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
MONTANA LATER TODAY...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT
550MB WILL PERSIST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO QUITE DRY AND
DEWPOINTS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OFFER NO IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND
PROBABLY MOST OF TOMORROW. A SHALLOW SURGE UNDERWAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AND
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING.

ALL THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND STABLE TO
CONVECT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ZONE
17...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO SOME HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOUND
IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME AIRMASS...BUT CHANGES WILL
BE STARTING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL THEN FORM OVER NEW MEXICO INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND
EVEN EASTERLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORM/COMPLEX ACTIVITY INCREASES.
ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND
MOISTURE PROFILE BY LATER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO AT LEAST A LOW
GRADE...PERHAPS MODERATE GRADE...MONSOON PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA 19-02Z POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KSJN-KRQE LINE. GUSTY
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271708
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 AM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY LIMITED TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MAKING SHORT TERM EDITS TO INCREASE
WIND GUST SPEEDS TODAY...BUT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
OTHERWISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
MONTANA LATER TODAY...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT
550MB WILL PERSIST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO QUITE DRY AND
DEWPOINTS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OFFER NO IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND
PROBABLY MOST OF TOMORROW. A SHALLOW SURGE UNDERWAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AND
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING.

ALL THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND STABLE TO
CONVECT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ZONE
17...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO SOME HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOUND
IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME AIRMASS...BUT CHANGES WILL
BE STARTING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL THEN FORM OVER NEW MEXICO INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND
EVEN EASTERLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORM/COMPLEX ACTIVITY INCREASES.
ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND
MOISTURE PROFILE BY LATER THIS WEEK...LEADING TO AT LEAST A LOW
GRADE...PERHAPS MODERATE GRADE...MONSOON PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA 19-02Z POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KSJN-KRQE LINE. GUSTY
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271036
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATER TODAY...WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 550MB WILL PERSIST. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO QUITE DRY AND DEWPOINTS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OFFER NO IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF TOMORROW.
A SHALLOW SURGE UNDERWAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AND WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.

ALL THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND STABLE TO CONVECT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ZONE 17...WHICH IS
CLOSEST TO SOME HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOUND IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.

MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME AIRMASS...BUT CHANGES WILL BE
STARTING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL HIGH WILL THEN FORM OVER NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND EVEN EASTERLY AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS
THUNDERSTORM/COMPLEX ACTIVITY INCREASES. ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE FAVORABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND MOISTURE PROFILE BY LATER
THIS WEEK...LEADING TO AT LEAST A LOW GRADE...PERHAPS MODERATE
GRADE...MONSOON PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO
-SHRA/-TSRA 19-02Z POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KSJN-KRQE LINE. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271036
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA LATER TODAY...WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 550MB WILL PERSIST. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO QUITE DRY AND DEWPOINTS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OFFER NO IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF TOMORROW.
A SHALLOW SURGE UNDERWAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AND WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.

ALL THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND STABLE TO CONVECT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER ZONE 17...WHICH IS
CLOSEST TO SOME HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOUND IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.

MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME AIRMASS...BUT CHANGES WILL BE
STARTING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL HIGH WILL THEN FORM OVER NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND EVEN EASTERLY AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS
THUNDERSTORM/COMPLEX ACTIVITY INCREASES. ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE FAVORABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND MOISTURE PROFILE BY LATER
THIS WEEK...LEADING TO AT LEAST A LOW GRADE...PERHAPS MODERATE
GRADE...MONSOON PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO
-SHRA/-TSRA 19-02Z POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KSJN-KRQE LINE. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO OTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/...EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR
NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON MONDAY... EXPECT BREEZY SW WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO OTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/...EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR
NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON MONDAY... EXPECT BREEZY SW WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN EASTERN AZ
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS THUS FAR MOSTLY ON THE NEW MEXICO
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE.

EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TOWARD KSJN/KRQE. BREEZY SW WINDS
MON AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN EASTERN AZ
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS THUS FAR MOSTLY ON THE NEW MEXICO
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE.

EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TOWARD KSJN/KRQE. BREEZY SW WINDS
MON AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN EASTERN AZ
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS THUS FAR MOSTLY ON THE NEW MEXICO
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE.

EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TOWARD KSJN/KRQE. BREEZY SW WINDS
MON AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN EASTERN AZ
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS THUS FAR MOSTLY ON THE NEW MEXICO
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE.

EXPECT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY OUR NORTH. THIS ENABLE THE MONSOON BREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TO CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TOWARD KSJN/KRQE. BREEZY SW WINDS
MON AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO COME BACK FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE EASTERN RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261654
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 AM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN AZ APPEARS IN STORE TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-TERM
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...A WEAK PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH IS DUE TO CONVECTION
AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA AND
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN.
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600MB AND AN UNUSUALLY DRY LAYER
BELOW 700MB WILL HAMPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.

AFTER TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER MONDAY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A NORMAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ISO-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-
KINW-KCEZ. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON
TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AT TIMES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WITHIN
SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261654
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 AM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN AZ APPEARS IN STORE TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-TERM
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...A WEAK PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH IS DUE TO CONVECTION
AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA AND
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN.
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600MB AND AN UNUSUALLY DRY LAYER
BELOW 700MB WILL HAMPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.

AFTER TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER MONDAY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A NORMAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ISO-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-
KINW-KCEZ. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON
TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AT TIMES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WITHIN
SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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