000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262232
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. A RETURN TO DRY...MILD...AND BREEZY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER AZ AS A TROUGH
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY...AND THIS AFTERNOON IS NO
EXCEPTION. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. A WEAK TROUGH OUT OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS AZ TOMORROW BRINGING WITH IT A
RATHER THICK BAND OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF MODEL THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH
IS NOW TRENDING CLOSER TO THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NOT QUITE AS COOL TEMPERATURES...SO
WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THOUGH ANY AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH AXIS NOW LOOKS TO HEAD EAST OF AZ BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN BORDER.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A DRY PATTERN WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
CI/CS COVER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SW SFC WINDS FROM
15-25KTS THROUGH 02Z MONDAY...RESUMING AFT 17Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL BRING CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE STORM
TRACK WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF ARIZONA...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261700
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
959 AM MST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WITH
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON TRACK
WITH NO MORNING UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (400 AM MST)...TODAY AND MONDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARIZONA DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER FOR NORTHERN AZ THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. WINDS SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A
LITTLE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...JET ENERGY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BRING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER WITH AN OPEN
TROUGH. THE GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND WELL. GIVEN THAT IT IS
MAY GOING INTO JUNE AND THIS IS TYPICALLY OUR DRIEST TWO MONTHS THIS
SYSTEM IS GOING TO ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THROUGH JUNEAU ALASKA...IN EFFECT PUSHING THE POLAR JET
NORTHWARD. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH WEST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL SET
NORTHERN ARIZONA UP FOR SOME DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS COVER 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SW SFC WINDS AT
15-25KTS THROUGH 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL BRING CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TODAY
AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. COOL...DRIER...AND CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS/TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261059 CCA
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND MONDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ARIZONA DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN AZ THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH SUSTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. WINDS SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A
LITTLE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...JET ENERGY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BRING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER WITH AN OPEN
TROUGH. THE GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND WELL. GIVEN THAT IT IS
MAY GOING INTO JUNE AND THIS IS TYPICALLY OUR DRIEST TWO MONTHS THIS
SYSTEM IS GOING TO ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THROUGH JUNEAU ALASKA...IN EFFECT PUSHING THE POLAR JET
NORTHWARD. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH WEST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL SET
NORTHERN ARIZONA UP FOR SOME DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
CIRRUS OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. COOL...DRIER...AND CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261031
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND MONDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ARIZONA DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN AZ THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH SUSTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. WINDS SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A
LITTLE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...JET ENERGY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BRING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER WITH AN OPEN
TROUGH. THE GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND WELL. GIVEN THAT IT IS
MAY GOING INTO JUNE AND THIS IS TYPICALLY OUR DRIEST TWO MONTHS THIS
SYSTEM IS GOING TO ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THROUGH JUNEAU ALASKA...IN EFFECT PUSHING THE POLAR JET
NORTHWARD. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH WEST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL SET
NORTHERN ARIZONA UP FOR SOME DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
CIRRUS OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. COOL...DRIER...AND CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260304
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
805 PM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND
PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE
WINDS DECREASING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING THIS
EVENING...TO RETURN SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION/330 PM MST/...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
AFFECT ARIZONA AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND MILD
WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
THICK. WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
A PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY SITTING UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REINFORCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW LATE MONDAY...AND THEN DROP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS.
BELIEVE A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS STILL THE BEST ROUTE AS THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE SLOWLY TRENDING AWAY FROM THE COLDER
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. THUS...A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK. AZ WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
RESULTING IN A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
CIRRUS COVER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 17Z...BECOMING
SW10-20G20-30KT UNTIL 03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL BRING CONTINUED DAYTIME WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOL...DRIER...BUT CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DJO/MCS
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252234
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT ARIZONA AS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. MORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY THICK. WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH.
SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
A PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY SITTING UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REINFORCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW LATE MONDAY...AND THEN DROP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS.
BELIEVE A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS STILL THE BEST ROUTE AS THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE SLOWLY TRENDING AWAY FROM THE COLDER
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. THUS...A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK. AZ WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
RESULTING IN A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
CIRRUS COVER FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SW SFC WINDS AT 15-30KTS
THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY...RESUMING AFT 17Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL BRING CONTINUED DAYTIME WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL
BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOL...DRIER...BUT CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251708
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. OVERALL...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING UPDATES
NEEDED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 AM MST)...A PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESIDING OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHWEST U.S. LOW DIGS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEEPER WITH MOVING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH
ARIZONA...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WINDY CONDITIONS AND GREATER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COVER A BLEND BETWEEN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY
DIFFERENT BY NEXT FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS A BUILDING RIDGE WHERE THE
ECMWF HAS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS STATES.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
CIRRUS COVER 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT SW SFC WINDS AT 15-30KTS THROUGH
02Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR OUR FIRE ZONES.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING ARIZONA IN A DRY
AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA. A GOOD
CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR FIRE
ZONES BELOW 5000 FEET ELEVATION...NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS/TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251030
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDING OVER
THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHWEST U.S. LOW DIGS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEEPER WITH MOVING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH
ARIZONA...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WINDY CONDITIONS AND GREATER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COVER A BLEND BETWEEN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IF THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY
DIFFERENT BY NEXT FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS A BUILDING RIDGE WHERE THE
ECMWF HAS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS STATES.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BREEZY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR OUR FIRE ZONES.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED THESE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST KEEPING ARIZONA IN A DRY AND
BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR WARNING CONDITIONS FOR FIRE ZONES BELOW 5000 FEET
ELEVATION NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250408
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 PM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD TONIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL KEEP AZ IN A VERY PERSISTENT DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER THAN PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS
LIKELY ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF DECREASED MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE 24/12Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN AZ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER..THE 24/12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A MORE OPEN WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. IN ADDITION...THE
ENSEMBLES OF BOTH MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES. THIS FEATURES A TREND TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-30KTS FROM THE SW AFT 17Z SATURDAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 01-03Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS OVER A LARGE AREA OR A
PERSISTENT AMOUNT OF TIME...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF
PERIODS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 TO 15 PERCENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND
APPROACH ARIZONA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC/MCS
AVIATION.......TC/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242233
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP AZ IN A
VERY PERSISTENT DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED. OTHER THAN PERIODIC HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF DECREASED MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE 24/12Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN AZ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER..THE 24/12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A MORE OPEN WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. IN ADDITION...THE
ENSEMBLES OF BOTH MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES. THIS FEATURES A TREND TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-30KTS FROM THE SW THROUGH 02Z AND WILL RESUME AFT 17Z
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS OVER A LARGE AREA OR A
PERSISTENT AMOUNT OF TIME...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF
PERIODS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 TO 15 PERCENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND
APPROACH ARIZONA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241659
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS KEEPING
AZ IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING
UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 AM MST)...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SIT OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
BE VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEPTH/TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
TUE/WED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS ARE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-30KTS FROM THE SW FROM 17Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OVER A LARGE AREA OR A PERSISTENT AMOUNT OF TIME.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
AND APPROACH ARIZONA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241040
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE VERY NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR MEMORIAL DAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEPTH/TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
TUE/WED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS ARE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BREEZY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP 16Z-18Z AND CONTINUE TO 01-03Z
SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH ONLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS MAY APPROACH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND APPROACHES ARIZONA ON TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240355
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
840 PM MST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED INCREASE THE WINDS
TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCK MOUNTAINS AWAY FROM ARIZONA. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DROPPING THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW INDICATING SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 15 MPH TO 25 MPH.
A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PRODUCE A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEKS WEATHER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /329 PM MST/...
GUSTY WINDS ARE TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OBSERVED GUSTS BEING COMMONLY REPORTED IN THE 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WINDS...THOUGH DEFINITELY REMAINING BREEZY...ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN
A NOTCH FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN A
SKOSH. DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BREEZY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...EXTENDED RANGES OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. OUR
FORECAST FOR THIS SCENARIO INCLUDES COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SW
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE FROM AROUND 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 04Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH ONLY
MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS MAY
APPROACH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC/KD
AVIATION.......TC
FIRE WEATHER...DB
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
| 
