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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER NE ARIZONA HAS
ERODED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO A FEW
AREAS BELOW 5500FT BETWEEN WINSLOW AND PAGE. OUR PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH REGARD TO THE FORMATION AND EXPANSION OF THE
INVERSION STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING 10-20KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE INVERSION AND SUBSEQUENT
CLOUDS BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY.
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH THE CLOUDS FURTHER UP THE RIM TO THE
SOUTH OF WINSLOW...AND CREATE AN AREA OF UPSLOPE FOG. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT MAY LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE...BUT
WHERE THE STRATUS IS ALREADY IN PLACE...ITS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OUR FORECAST THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REFORMING
LATE THIS EVENING IN GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN ANY
CASE...WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE ARIZONA
DISSIPATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH LESS REFORMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG...BUT DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES 0N TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT BEING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THE CHILL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BRINGS OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO LINE WITH THE TROUGH TO IMPACT ARIZONA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN WITHIN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KINW.
THIS REGION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY EVENING. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS WITHIN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KINW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KPGA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BAK/JJ
AVIATION...RICKEY/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER NE ARIZONA HAS
ERODED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO A FEW
AREAS BELOW 5500FT BETWEEN WINSLOW AND PAGE. OUR PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH REGARD TO THE FORMATION AND EXPANSION OF THE
INVERSION STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING 10-20KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE INVERSION AND SUBSEQUENT
CLOUDS BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY.
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY ALSO PUSH THE CLOUDS FURTHER UP THE RIM TO THE
SOUTH OF WINSLOW...AND CREATE AN AREA OF UPSLOPE FOG. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT MAY LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE...BUT
WHERE THE STRATUS IS ALREADY IN PLACE...ITS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
OUR FORECAST THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REFORMING
LATE THIS EVENING IN GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN ANY
CASE...WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE ARIZONA
DISSIPATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH LESS REFORMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG...BUT DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES 0N TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT BEING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THE CHILL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BRINGS OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO LINE WITH THE TROUGH TO IMPACT ARIZONA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN WITHIN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KINW.
THIS REGION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY EVENING. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS WITHIN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KINW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KPGA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BAK/JJ
AVIATION...RICKEY/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING...AND REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THIS MORNING IS THE LOW STRATUS
AND FOG WHICH FORMED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NE
ARIZONA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT REFORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG DIURNAL FORCING. ONE FACTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA.  SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /410AM MST/...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT
NORTHEAST AZ VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ARIZONA.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL STILL INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SOME OTHER MODELS. KEPT LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG ARE PRESENT ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER AND CHINLE VALLEYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL LIKELY
RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BAK/JJ
AVIATION...RICKEY/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201113
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AZ
VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ARIZONA.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL STILL INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SOME OTHER MODELS. KEPT LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201113
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AZ
VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ARIZONA.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL STILL INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SOME OTHER MODELS. KEPT LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THE LARGE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
AND FOG THAT EXISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING HAVE LARGELY BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD REMAIN WITHIN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST OF WINSLOW. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER AND CHINLE
VALLEYS. I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW
MORNINGS LOWS IN PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUD AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM.

TOMORROW THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA
UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY
COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF
A DEEPER...SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...STRATUS AND FOG FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. AREAS IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT MAY INCLUDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...PORTION OF THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...AND MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS INCLUDING THE PAGE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THE LARGE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
AND FOG THAT EXISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING HAVE LARGELY BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD REMAIN WITHIN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST OF WINSLOW. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER AND CHINLE
VALLEYS. I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW
MORNINGS LOWS IN PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUD AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM.

TOMORROW THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA
UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY
COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF
A DEEPER...SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...STRATUS AND FOG FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. AREAS IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT MAY INCLUDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...PORTION OF THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...AND MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS INCLUDING THE PAGE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
AND CHINLE VALLEYS. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. I AM NOT SURE THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL
BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED TODAY GIVEN THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND
HI RES MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RATHER HIGH...SO
KEEPING IT AROUND BUT SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
BE LOOKING AT TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHORTLY TO DETERMINE IF
THEY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
PROLONGED LOW CLOUD AND FOG.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FOR TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA UNDER
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING COLD, WINDY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS MAY RETREAT OR DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG
FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR
CONDITIONS. CURRENT AREAS IMPACTED ARE PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COCONINO/NAVAJO COUNTY BORDER
EAST...TUBA CITY AREA...AND SOUTH AND WEST OF SUPAI AND ROSE WELL
NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FCST TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO MARBLE
CANYON AND GLEN CANYON INTO PAGE. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS
AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
AND CHINLE VALLEYS. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. I AM NOT SURE THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL
BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED TODAY GIVEN THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND
HI RES MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RATHER HIGH...SO
KEEPING IT AROUND BUT SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
BE LOOKING AT TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHORTLY TO DETERMINE IF
THEY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
PROLONGED LOW CLOUD AND FOG.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FOR TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA UNDER
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING COLD, WINDY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS MAY RETREAT OR DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG
FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR
CONDITIONS. CURRENT AREAS IMPACTED ARE PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COCONINO/NAVAJO COUNTY BORDER
EAST...TUBA CITY AREA...AND SOUTH AND WEST OF SUPAI AND ROSE WELL
NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FCST TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO MARBLE
CANYON AND GLEN CANYON INTO PAGE. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS
AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190938
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA UNDER
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING COLD, WINDY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LCL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NE ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU THE
24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190938
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA UNDER
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING COLD, WINDY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LCL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NE ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THRU THE
24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190428
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. UPDATED
FORECAST EARLIER FOR THE EARLIER FORMATION OF FOG. WILL UPDATE AGAIN
TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWERS AND EXPAND FOG EASTWARD INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AT THIS POINT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF
EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 3
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION TODAY AND EXPERIENCE
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF DENSE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LCL STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
AZ ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFT 15Z. ISOLD -SHSN POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY THROUGH 09Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A TRACE TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ABOVE 6000 FEET IS POSSIBLE. BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AT THIS POINT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF
EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 3
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION TODAY AND EXPERIENCE
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF DENSE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT STRATUS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z PRODUCING SCT MVFR CIGS AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THE CHUSKAS. AFT 03Z LINGERING WDLY
SCT STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AZ ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG PRODUCING WDLY SCT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFT 15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A TRACE TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ABOVE 6000 FEET IS POSSIBLE. BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AT THIS POINT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF
EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 3
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION TODAY AND EXPERIENCE
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF DENSE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT STRATUS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z PRODUCING SCT MVFR CIGS AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THE CHUSKAS. AFT 03Z LINGERING WDLY
SCT STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AZ ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG PRODUCING WDLY SCT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFT 15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS FOR AN AREA BOUNDED
BY FLAGSTAFF TO WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT TO HWY 180. A BAND OF
MODERATE SLOW MOVING SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
OR SO. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. MOTORIST WILL WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-17...I-40...HWY 180 AND US
89 IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AND NORTHWARD. RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW A MESO
SURFACE LOW JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM
LEADING TO A TERRAIN INDUCED LINE OF SHOWERS SUSTAINED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 630 MB.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-
SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED. SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS FOR AN AREA BOUNDED
BY FLAGSTAFF TO WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT TO HWY 180. A BAND OF
MODERATE SLOW MOVING SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
OR SO. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. MOTORIST WILL WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-17...I-40...HWY 180 AND US
89 IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AND NORTHWARD. RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW A MESO
SURFACE LOW JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM
LEADING TO A TERRAIN INDUCED LINE OF SHOWERS SUSTAINED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 630 MB.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-
SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED. SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181549
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AND NORTHWARD. RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW A MESO
SURFACE LOW JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM
LEADING TO A TERRAIN INDUCED LINE OF SHOWERS SUSTAINED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 630 MB. THIS BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST AND MOTORIST WILL WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
I-17...I-40...HWY 180 AND US 89 IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-
SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED. SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181549
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AND NORTHWARD. RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW A MESO
SURFACE LOW JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM
LEADING TO A TERRAIN INDUCED LINE OF SHOWERS SUSTAINED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 630 MB. THIS BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST AND MOTORIST WILL WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
I-17...I-40...HWY 180 AND US 89 IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-
SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED. SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS ENTERING
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER WAS APPARENT ON RADAR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3:00 AM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED.
SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER TO AROUND 6000 FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS ENTERING
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER WAS APPARENT ON RADAR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3:00 AM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED.
SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER TO AROUND 6000 FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180427
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW
AREAS WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOL AND MOIST AIR RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROBLEM IS...ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE FORCING
EARLIER TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO DYNAMICS AT ALL.
A VERY WEAK S/WV SEEN ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL
ADD SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE AIRMASS FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z THURS.
THIS WILL NOT DO VERY MUCH...EXPECT ENHANCE SOME OF THE TERRAIN
DRIVEN SNOWFALL ALONG THE RIM. THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY FROM
THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH AGAIN...AFFECTING SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND
POSSIBLE GILA COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES
BY...WE A LEFT WITH A SHALLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL THIS DOES NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. THE CURRENT POP/QPF SCHEME
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A COUPLE OF AREAS
THAT END UP IN A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW...BUT
NOTHING WE NEED HEADLINES FOR. IN FACT...WE REALLY CANNOT EVEN
PINPOINT WHERE THOSE SHOWERS MIGHT BE. AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...ALONG THE PAYSON RIM. FAIR WEATHER AND A
BIG INCREASE IN HGHTS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. NO FURTHER
UPDATES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE WEAK LIFT AND A CONTINUANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 18 HRS. WIDESPREAD AND MIXED MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BTWN
00-06Z FRIDAY AS THE FINAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. LINGERING SCT
MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180427
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW
AREAS WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOL AND MOIST AIR RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROBLEM IS...ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE FORCING
EARLIER TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO DYNAMICS AT ALL.
A VERY WEAK S/WV SEEN ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL
ADD SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE AIRMASS FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z THURS.
THIS WILL NOT DO VERY MUCH...EXPECT ENHANCE SOME OF THE TERRAIN
DRIVEN SNOWFALL ALONG THE RIM. THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY FROM
THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH AGAIN...AFFECTING SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND
POSSIBLE GILA COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES
BY...WE A LEFT WITH A SHALLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL THIS DOES NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. THE CURRENT POP/QPF SCHEME
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A COUPLE OF AREAS
THAT END UP IN A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW...BUT
NOTHING WE NEED HEADLINES FOR. IN FACT...WE REALLY CANNOT EVEN
PINPOINT WHERE THOSE SHOWERS MIGHT BE. AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...ALONG THE PAYSON RIM. FAIR WEATHER AND A
BIG INCREASE IN HGHTS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. NO FURTHER
UPDATES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE WEAK LIFT AND A CONTINUANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 18 HRS. WIDESPREAD AND MIXED MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BTWN
00-06Z FRIDAY AS THE FINAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. LINGERING SCT
MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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