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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181721
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1021 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE GENERALLY MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER TODAY. A
LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...AND WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...A TONGUE OF HIGH PW POSITIONED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY THAT MAY HELP GET CONVECTION GOING IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER STORMS THERE. NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT COVERAGE THOUGH...AS
HI RES MODELS TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...
MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AND INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS...
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1-3Z FRIDAY AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181721
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1021 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE GENERALLY MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER TODAY. A
LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...AND WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...A TONGUE OF HIGH PW POSITIONED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY THAT MAY HELP GET CONVECTION GOING IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER STORMS THERE. NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT COVERAGE THOUGH...AS
HI RES MODELS TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...
MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AND INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS...
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1-3Z FRIDAY AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181023
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ARIZONA
NEAREST THE REMNANT CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WE HAVE LIFTED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
ON THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181023
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ARIZONA
NEAREST THE REMNANT CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WE HAVE LIFTED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
ON THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
PINE/STRAWBERRY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE REGION.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF WHAT WAS ONCE ODILE IS
NEAR NOGALES THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE KFGZ 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THIS MORNING ABOVE 500 MB. THERE WAS ALSO A
RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. THESE FACTORS LEAD TO THE DOWNSIZING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO JUST FIVE ZONE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA--NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...ODILE IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY LOSING
DEFINITION OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REINVIGORATE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. BY FRIDAY...A CUT OFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL
BE CAPABLE OF KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE CHANCES A BIT ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OWING TO A FORECAST INTRUSION OF DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS SOUTH OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE.
LESS CLOUD COVER AND FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS
AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT A FEW OF THE HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ014-016>018
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
PINE/STRAWBERRY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE REGION.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF WHAT WAS ONCE ODILE IS
NEAR NOGALES THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE KFGZ 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THIS MORNING ABOVE 500 MB. THERE WAS ALSO A
RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. THESE FACTORS LEAD TO THE DOWNSIZING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO JUST FIVE ZONE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA--NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...ODILE IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY LOSING
DEFINITION OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REINVIGORATE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. BY FRIDAY...A CUT OFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL
BE CAPABLE OF KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE CHANCES A BIT ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OWING TO A FORECAST INTRUSION OF DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS SOUTH OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE.
LESS CLOUD COVER AND FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS
AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT A FEW OF THE HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ014-016>018
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172221
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
321 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA...BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILE IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY LOSING DEFINITION OVER NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REINVIGORATE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. BY FRIDAY...A CUT OFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL
BE CAPABLE OF KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE CHANCES A BIT ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OWING TO A FORECAST INTRUSION OF DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS FROM KRQE-KFLG-KPRC ALONG
AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL FEWER STORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE. AVIATION HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS INCLUDE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT A FEW
OF THE HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-
012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172221
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
321 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA...BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILE IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY LOSING DEFINITION OVER NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REINVIGORATE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. BY FRIDAY...A CUT OFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL
BE CAPABLE OF KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE CHANCES A BIT ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OWING TO A FORECAST INTRUSION OF DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS FROM KRQE-KFLG-KPRC ALONG
AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL FEWER STORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE. AVIATION HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS INCLUDE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT A FEW
OF THE HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-
012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171714
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1014 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY SPEND SOME TIME RAISING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
RIM ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA (PIMA
COUNTY) LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
THROUGH GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WEST OF THESE AREAS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CLOUD CEILINGS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-
012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171714
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1014 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY SPEND SOME TIME RAISING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
RIM ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA (PIMA
COUNTY) LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
THROUGH GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WEST OF THESE AREAS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CLOUD CEILINGS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-
012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA (PIMA
COUNTY) LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
THROUGH GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WEST OF THESE AREAS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AVIATION
HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN
MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS OVER HIGH
ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA (PIMA
COUNTY) LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
THROUGH GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WEST OF THESE AREAS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AVIATION
HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN
MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS OVER HIGH
ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170437
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN SONORA THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN GUAYMAS AND
NOGALES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 HAVE A
WESTWARD MOVEMENT...WHILE SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND SEEM TO BE ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN (OROGRAPHIC LIFTING).
MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE TRACK OF
ODILE...DOWNGRADING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE AZ/SONORA BORDER WEST OF NOGALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BETWEEN GLOBE AND TUCSON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST AND
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD TSRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/DL
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170437
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN SONORA THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN GUAYMAS AND
NOGALES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 HAVE A
WESTWARD MOVEMENT...WHILE SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND SEEM TO BE ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN (OROGRAPHIC LIFTING).
MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE TRACK OF
ODILE...DOWNGRADING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE AZ/SONORA BORDER WEST OF NOGALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BETWEEN GLOBE AND TUCSON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST AND
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD TSRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/DL
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA RADARS SHOWING TWO PRECIP MODES ACROSS ARIZONA...SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ODILES CLOUD
BAND...AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ. BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS ODILE
ADVANCES TOWARDS AZ.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
02/03Z. LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA RADARS SHOWING TWO PRECIP MODES ACROSS ARIZONA...SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ODILES CLOUD
BAND...AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ. BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS ODILE
ADVANCES TOWARDS AZ.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
02/03Z. LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161647
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR TODAY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40...WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DISCUSSION BELOW COVERS WX
SITUATION WELL. LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ALONG A LINE
FROM GALLUP TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTHWARD.
RADARS SHOW A BAND OF STEADY PRECIP ACROSS SRN AZ INTO NEW MEXICO
NOW...THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 335 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT APPROACHING
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ODILE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FOR OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS GRADIENT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE...AS WELL AS SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING.

CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH ODILE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRIMARILY AFFECTING SE
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...THIS TRACK MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
OR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY IMPORT DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THESE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY...THAT IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WATCH TIME FRAME.

AFTER ODILE EXITS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
SHEAR. GFS DEPICTS THIS AS POSSIBLY A MORE SERIOUS SITUATION THAN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ECMWF TAKES THIS NEW LOW AND RETROGRADES
OUT TO SEA...AWAY FROM ARIZONA. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS AND WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA PREDOMINANTLY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY AND SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECT INCREASING LIGHT-MDT
RAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD AS WELL AS SOME LOW VFR
CEILINGS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / PETERSON
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161647
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR TODAY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40...WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DISCUSSION BELOW COVERS WX
SITUATION WELL. LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ALONG A LINE
FROM GALLUP TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTHWARD.
RADARS SHOW A BAND OF STEADY PRECIP ACROSS SRN AZ INTO NEW MEXICO
NOW...THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 335 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT APPROACHING
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ODILE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FOR OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS GRADIENT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE...AS WELL AS SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING.

CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH ODILE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRIMARILY AFFECTING SE
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...THIS TRACK MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
OR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY IMPORT DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THESE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY...THAT IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WATCH TIME FRAME.

AFTER ODILE EXITS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
SHEAR. GFS DEPICTS THIS AS POSSIBLY A MORE SERIOUS SITUATION THAN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ECMWF TAKES THIS NEW LOW AND RETROGRADES
OUT TO SEA...AWAY FROM ARIZONA. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS AND WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA PREDOMINANTLY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY AND SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECT INCREASING LIGHT-MDT
RAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD AS WELL AS SOME LOW VFR
CEILINGS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / PETERSON
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161033
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR TODAY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40...WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING OUT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT APPROACHING CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THIS GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ODILE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FOR OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS GRADIENT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE...AS WELL AS SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING.

CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH ODILE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRIMARILY AFFECTING SE
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...THIS TRACK MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
OR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY IMPORT DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THESE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY...THAT IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WATCH TIME FRAME.

AFTER ODILE EXITS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
SHEAR. GFS DEPICTS THIS AS POSSIBLY A MORE SERIOUS SITUATION THAN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ECMWF TAKES THIS NEW LOW AND RETROGRADES
OUT TO SEA...AWAY FROM ARIZONA. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS AND WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ODILE. UNTIL 18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ.
AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KRQE LINE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 160339
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOOK FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOR
TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE GOOD AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED DAYTIME INTO
EVENING STORMS. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY POINT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE TIME FRAME AND PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON
THURSDAY STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ODILE. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WITH STORMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 160339
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOOK FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOR
TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE GOOD AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED DAYTIME INTO
EVENING STORMS. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY POINT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE TIME FRAME AND PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON
THURSDAY STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ODILE. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WITH STORMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONVECTION FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW DEVELOPING OVER TERRAIN ABOVE
6000 FEET WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS PER RADAR
WITH A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND SCATTERED DAYTIME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE
ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST PROGS STILL SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY PT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL QPFS
NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TIME FRAME AND
PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON THURSDAY STILL A BIT
UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 04Z EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG
D SOUTH OF A LINE KCMR/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD OR NO CELL
ACTIVITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. AFTER 04Z TUE...STORM ACTIVITY DECREASING. AFT
18Z TUES...TSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SIMILAR AS TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL / RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONVECTION FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW DEVELOPING OVER TERRAIN ABOVE
6000 FEET WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS PER RADAR
WITH A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND SCATTERED DAYTIME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE
ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST PROGS STILL SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY PT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL QPFS
NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TIME FRAME AND
PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON THURSDAY STILL A BIT
UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 04Z EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG
D SOUTH OF A LINE KCMR/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD OR NO CELL
ACTIVITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. AFTER 04Z TUE...STORM ACTIVITY DECREASING. AFT
18Z TUES...TSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SIMILAR AS TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL / RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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