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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020945
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
FLAGSTAFF. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA WHICH WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE FROM SONORA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF ON WEDNESDAY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING EACH DAY.

A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT EXACTLY HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT...BUT THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE ENSURES
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY
WET WEATHER TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEK AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020945
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
FLAGSTAFF. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA WHICH WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE FROM SONORA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF ON WEDNESDAY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING EACH DAY.

A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT EXACTLY HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT...BUT THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE ENSURES
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY
WET WEATHER TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEK AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO FORECAST UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 PM MST)...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SW
WIND 10-15 KT MOST AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/KD
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO FORECAST UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 PM MST)...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SW
WIND 10-15 KT MOST AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/KD
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO FORECAST UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 PM MST)...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SW
WIND 10-15 KT MOST AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/KD
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO FORECAST UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 PM MST)...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SW
WIND 10-15 KT MOST AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/KD
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012238
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012238
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH GREATER
CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO SHORT-TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /AZ 316 AM/...
A DRY AND MILD LABOR DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO SHORT-TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /AZ 316 AM/...
A DRY AND MILD LABOR DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011405 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND MILD LABOR DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011405 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND MILD LABOR DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND MILD MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND MILD MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 &&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010403 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY 2-4 DEGREES AT SOME SITES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT`S WINDY
CONDITIONS HELP SKEW THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES UPWARD...AND TONIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON
TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......TC/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010403 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY 2-4 DEGREES AT SOME SITES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT`S WINDY
CONDITIONS HELP SKEW THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES UPWARD...AND TONIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON
TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......TC/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010348
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY 2-4 DEGREES AT SOME SITES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT`S WINDY
CONDITIONS HELP SKEW THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES UPWARD...AND TONIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON
TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......TC/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010348
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY 2-4 DEGREES AT SOME SITES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT`S WINDY
CONDITIONS HELP SKEW THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES UPWARD...AND TONIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON
TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......TC/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312223
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20G25KTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AFTER
02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312223
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20G25KTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AFTER
02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311649
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA LATER
NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH UTAH TODAY WILL
BRING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO CONTINUE IN A DRY AIR
MASS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING UP ADDITIONAL
MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF MOISTURE
SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINGER EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24  HRS UNDER SKC-SCT250. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY 01-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311649
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA LATER
NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH UTAH TODAY WILL
BRING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO CONTINUE IN A DRY AIR
MASS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING UP ADDITIONAL
MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF MOISTURE
SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINGER EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24  HRS UNDER SKC-SCT250. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY 01-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311050
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN TO ARIZONA LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED TODAY AS A S/WV MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN HAVE GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES.

THE RIDGE RECOVERS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE SUB-TROPICS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...LIKELY
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS UNDER FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY
01-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311050
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN TO ARIZONA LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED TODAY AS A S/WV MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN HAVE GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES.

THE RIDGE RECOVERS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE SUB-TROPICS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...LIKELY
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS UNDER FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY
01-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND TO 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND TO 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301655
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND
FORECAST CONTINUES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /405 AM MST/...
A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL MAKE FOR WARM DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301655
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND
FORECAST CONTINUES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /405 AM MST/...
A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL MAKE FOR WARM DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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