Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291704
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through the coming
week a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each day.
Near normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, then the
warmest weather so far this year is likely by the middle of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow ahead of an upper low near Los
Angeles has pushed drier mid-level air into much of the region
today. Limited moisture still remains over the northern portions of
the state. Spotty mid-level convection will be possible in these
areas by the afternoon, with flat cumulus or sunny skies elsewhere.
Expect similar conditions on Monday as the low slowly moves toward
Arizona. Temperatures today and Monday will also stay relatively
unchanged as hghts fall slightly.

This low will move through the area Tuesday and Wednesday with just
enough mid-level moisture to bring a slight chance of high-based
convection back to many areas. Hghts rise significantly by the end
of the week, bringing the this years warmest temperatures to date.
The increased surface heating and continued presence of limited mid-
level moisture will keep a slight chance of high-based convection in
the forecast through the end of the forecast period.

All trends look good, no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Isold -shra/-tsra from 18Z-02Z over the higher terrain
north of a KGCN-KRQE line. Some convection could produce sfc wnd
gusts to 35kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of light showers and
thunderstorms today and again Monday, generally over the higher
terrain north of Interstate 40. Erratic and gusty winds possible
near storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the higher terrain, with relatively light winds.
Expect minimum RH below 15 percent most areas.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281703
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through next week
for a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each day.
Otherwise, warmer temperatures are in store starting today and
continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak troughing will affect the region through early
next week. Hghts in this pattern are around normal and temperatures
will begin to rise each day as a result. Enough mid-level moisture
exists in this trough for spotty high-based convection for the next
several days. A few light showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out through Tuesday or Wednesday. The remainder of next week will
feature a high amplitude ridge, bringing the warmest temperatures so
far this year. Grids/text products look good, no updates needed this
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Isolated and high based -SHRA/-TSRA are possible along and
north of I-40 from 18z-01z...mainly over the higher terrain. Erratic
winds with gusts as high as 40 knots in the vicinity of -SHRA/-TSRA
are possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday over the higher terrain
along and north of Interstate 40. Erratic and gusty winds possible
near storms.

Monday through Wednesday...Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected with relatively light winds into the middle of next
week. Minimum RH below 15 percent most areas.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/BAK


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities