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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032246
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR FRIDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY.

LATE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEVADA-CALIFORNIA TO REINFORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE REACHES
OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES BEING ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER BY
REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...ALSO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REDUCE THROUGH NOON AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WINDS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER BY
REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...ALSO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REDUCE THROUGH NOON AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WINDS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031120
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
416 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN APACHE COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER APACHE COUNTY
TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WINDS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND APACHE COUNTIES
ALONG.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SC OVER HIGHER WITH
BASES FROM 4-6KFT AGL FROM 18Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...BEP
FIRE WEATHER...BEP


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDING. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FLAGSTAFF SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PRODUCE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPATED TO REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH- NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST- NORTHEAST
FLOW FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP.
SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION...BETWEEN 06Z-15Z
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDING. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FLAGSTAFF SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PRODUCE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPATED TO REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH- NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST- NORTHEAST
FLOW FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP.
SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION...BETWEEN 06Z-15Z
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022228 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT...
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN ON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IT WAS
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AFT 02Z PRECIP COVERAGE ENDING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS. BTWN 06Z-15Z TUES. AREAS MVFR IN STRATUS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER..FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022228 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT...
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN ON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IT WAS
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AFT 02Z PRECIP COVERAGE ENDING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS. BTWN 06Z-15Z TUES. AREAS MVFR IN STRATUS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER..FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022152
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
252 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT...
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION MORE MID-LEVEL.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN ON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATMOSPHERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UP SLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. IT WAS DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA EXPECT WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A 0.1-0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STILL BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAY TIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS. &&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AFT 02Z PRECIP COVERAGE ENDING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
VFR CONDITIONS. BTWN 06Z-15Z TUES. AREAS MVFR IN STRATUS ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM CAMERON TO SHOW LOW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER..FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TODAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AND THAT WAS TO BETTER CAPTURE CLOUD COVER...AND
CHANGE FROM CHANCE WORDING TO CATEGORICAL WORDING. CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE RAPIDLY TODAY...AS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK AGAIN TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTER THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ARE EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN ON
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATMOSPHERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UP SLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...MONITORING THIS FACTOR AND MAY BE PROVIDING UPDATES IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /347 AM MST/...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW
LEVELS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TODAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AND THAT WAS TO BETTER CAPTURE CLOUD COVER...AND
CHANGE FROM CHANCE WORDING TO CATEGORICAL WORDING. CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE RAPIDLY TODAY...AS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK AGAIN TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTER THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ARE EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN ON
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATMOSPHERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UP SLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...MONITORING THIS FACTOR AND MAY BE PROVIDING UPDATES IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /347 AM MST/...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW
LEVELS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021047
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS
WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES FROM
3-5KFT THROUGH 17Z-19Z. POCKETS OF VLIFR POSSIBLE...DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS/FOG...OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z. AFT 19Z...BKN-OVC
CU/SC WITH SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECMG VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021047
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS
WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES FROM
3-5KFT THROUGH 17Z-19Z. POCKETS OF VLIFR POSSIBLE...DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS/FOG...OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z. AFT 19Z...BKN-OVC
CU/SC WITH SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECMG VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020412
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
912 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS ARIZONA. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO CREATE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN TUESDAY. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /252 PM MST/...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, THE CURRENT LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND HEAD EAST OF ARIZONA. IN RESPONSE, SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO OVER 9000 FEET. QUITE A FEW AREAS ARE
VERY MOIST AND ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 9000
FEET, DIPPING A BIT LOWER IN HEAVY SHOWERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING. CONFIDENT THAT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW (OTHERWISE KNOWN AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS).

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
CREATED A MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. BY MID MORNING SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUK/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...SUK
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012152
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
252 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS ARIZONA. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, THE CURRENT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND HEAD EAST
OF ARIZONA. IN RESPONSE, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
RISE TO OVER 9000 FEET. QUITE A FEW AREAS ARE VERY MOIST AND ANY
CLEARING COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 9000
FEET, DIPPING A BIT LOWER IN HEAVY SHOWERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING. CONFIDENT THAT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW (OTHERWISE KNOWN AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS).

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z EXPECT
BKN-OVC SKY COVER WITH CIGS AOA 10KFT MSL AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCT-NMRS -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF A KPGA-KCMR-KPAN LINE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING
AFT 03Z...MVFR CIG COVERAGE INCREASING THOUGH WITH AREAS OF IFR IN
FOG/MIST EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z MON. AFT 17Z
MON...SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011541
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
841 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500
FEET THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT STAY TUNED
UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY.

COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER COINCIDENT WITH A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS
BAND HAS RESULTED IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND
6500 FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIKELY
NORTHEAST TOWARD WINDOW ROCK. REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN GRASSY
AREAS AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF TOWARD LAKE MARY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF
NORTHEAST THROUGH BLACK MESA AND THE CHINLE VALLEY. AREAS ABOVE
6500 CAN GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...PERHAPS MORE FROM LAKE MARY TOWARD MORMON LAKE.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH
ARIZONA ON MONDAY KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW MARCHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKES A
RETURN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z EXPECT SCT-BKN SKY COVER
WITH CIGS FROM 5-8KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE SCT-NMRS
-SHRA/-SHRASN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING AFT 03Z...AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION...DL/PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011143
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
443 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500
FEET THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET
UP ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER COINCIDENT WITH
A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. THIS BAND
HAS RESULTED IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIKELY NORTHEAST
TOWARD WINDOW ROCK. REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN GRASSY AREAS
AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH MORE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF
TOWARD LAKE MARY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF NORTHEAST
THROUGH BLACK MESA AND THE CHINLE VALLEY. AREAS ABOVE 6500 CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...PERHAPS MORE FROM LAKE MARY TOWARD MORMON LAKE.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF AZ. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH AZ
ON MONDAY KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHERN AZ. THE LOW MARCHES EAST
THROUGH AZ ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKES A RETURN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF KRQE-KFLG LINE THROUGH 16Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER EAST-FACING TERRAIN. CIGS IN THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2-4KFT AGL IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE...4-6KFT
AGL. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z-20Z...EXPECT SCT-BKN SKY COVER WITH CIGS FROM
5-8KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE -SHRA/-SHRASN SHOWERS
THROUGH 02Z-04Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FREQUENT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM THIS
MORNING...TO LESS COVERAGE AND MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011143
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
443 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500
FEET THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET
UP ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER COINCIDENT WITH
A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. THIS BAND
HAS RESULTED IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIKELY NORTHEAST
TOWARD WINDOW ROCK. REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN GRASSY AREAS
AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH MORE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF
TOWARD LAKE MARY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF NORTHEAST
THROUGH BLACK MESA AND THE CHINLE VALLEY. AREAS ABOVE 6500 CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...PERHAPS MORE FROM LAKE MARY TOWARD MORMON LAKE.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF AZ. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH AZ
ON MONDAY KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHERN AZ. THE LOW MARCHES EAST
THROUGH AZ ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKES A RETURN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF KRQE-KFLG LINE THROUGH 16Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER EAST-FACING TERRAIN. CIGS IN THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2-4KFT AGL IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE...4-6KFT
AGL. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z-20Z...EXPECT SCT-BKN SKY COVER WITH CIGS FROM
5-8KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE -SHRA/-SHRASN SHOWERS
THROUGH 02Z-04Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FREQUENT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM THIS
MORNING...TO LESS COVERAGE AND MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010428
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
928 PM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS RANGED
FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN AN UNSTABLE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OVERNIGHT SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET ELEVATION.
ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET ELEVATION BY AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ON MONDAY SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WET WEATHER
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD LOW WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD AND WET WEATHER RETURNS AS OUR LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
EXTENDED SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A FEW MOSTLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE. AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL AUTHOR
THE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DELIVER
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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