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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY ENHANCING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HAS
SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS CAUSING THE ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA INTO LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER MOUNTAIN REGIONS LEADING
TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRADSHAW
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOGOLLON RIM REGIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ALREADY WET GROUND IN SOME AREAS MAY ELEVATE THE RISK
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DECREASING OUR CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
HEAVY SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202241
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 PM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. QUIETER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SHOULD DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY IS STILL CENTERED RIGHT
AROUND LOS ANGELES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IT WILL TAKE TIME
FOR THAT LIFT TO DEVELOP ONCE THE LOW STARTS MOVING OUR WAY.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW IS NOT LIKELY
TO DEVELOP NOTICEABLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL AT LEAST MID-
MORNING ON THURSDAY OR SO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BUT NOT NEARLY ON THE
SCALE AS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MODEL QPF ARE THUS BOTH
ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE BEEN RAISED. THE GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING THREAT
SHOULD ANY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.

THE LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z THURSDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBY IN
TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202241
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 PM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. QUIETER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SHOULD DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY IS STILL CENTERED RIGHT
AROUND LOS ANGELES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IT WILL TAKE TIME
FOR THAT LIFT TO DEVELOP ONCE THE LOW STARTS MOVING OUR WAY.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW IS NOT LIKELY
TO DEVELOP NOTICEABLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL AT LEAST MID-
MORNING ON THURSDAY OR SO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BUT NOT NEARLY ON THE
SCALE AS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MODEL QPF ARE THUS BOTH
ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE BEEN RAISED. THE GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING THREAT
SHOULD ANY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.

THE LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z THURSDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBY IN
TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
923 AM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY DECREASING THEM OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT LESS
RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW AS THE SOUTHWEST US
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /348 AM MST/...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. GPSMET AND GOES SOUNDER BASED PRECIPITABLE
WATER MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE VALUE AT FLAGSTAFF PEAKED AT JUST OVER AN INCH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES THIS MORNING...WITH
SIMILAR DROPS AT THE KINGMAN AND SHOW LOW GPSMET SITES. AN UPPER
LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT IS NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA
TODAY TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT...SO EXPECT A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AFTER TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING
THE LOW INTO WESTERN AZ THURSDAY AFTN...THEN INTO EASTERN AZ OR
NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY AS
UPWARD MOTION COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERN AZ.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT REDUCED VSBY IN TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER
03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT/JJ
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
923 AM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY DECREASING THEM OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT LESS
RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW AS THE SOUTHWEST US
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /348 AM MST/...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. GPSMET AND GOES SOUNDER BASED PRECIPITABLE
WATER MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE VALUE AT FLAGSTAFF PEAKED AT JUST OVER AN INCH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES THIS MORNING...WITH
SIMILAR DROPS AT THE KINGMAN AND SHOW LOW GPSMET SITES. AN UPPER
LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT IS NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA
TODAY TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT...SO EXPECT A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AFTER TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING
THE LOW INTO WESTERN AZ THURSDAY AFTN...THEN INTO EASTERN AZ OR
NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY AS
UPWARD MOTION COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERN AZ.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT REDUCED VSBY IN TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER
03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT/JJ
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201049
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 AM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. GPSMET AND GOES SOUNDER BASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE VALUE AT FLAGSTAFF PEAKED AT JUST OVER AN
INCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES THIS
MORNING...WITH SIMILAR DROPS AT THE KINGMAN AND SHOW LOW GPSMET
SITES. AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE IT
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT IS NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT...SO EXPECT A LOWER CHANCE OF
STORMS TODAY...MOSTLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AFTER TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING
THE LOW INTO WESTERN AZ THURSDAY AFTN...THEN INTO EASTERN AZ OR NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY AS
UPWARD MOTION COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERN AZ.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MTNS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201049
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 AM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. GPSMET AND GOES SOUNDER BASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE VALUE AT FLAGSTAFF PEAKED AT JUST OVER AN
INCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES THIS
MORNING...WITH SIMILAR DROPS AT THE KINGMAN AND SHOW LOW GPSMET
SITES. AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE IT
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT IS NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT...SO EXPECT A LOWER CHANCE OF
STORMS TODAY...MOSTLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AFTER TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING
THE LOW INTO WESTERN AZ THURSDAY AFTN...THEN INTO EASTERN AZ OR NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY AS
UPWARD MOTION COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERN AZ.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MTNS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200422
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCING THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA AND BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GROUND.

AREAS OF FLOODING WERE ALSO REPORTED MAINLY NEAR BLACK CANYON CITY
AS THE AGUA FRIA RIVER PEAK FLOW AS MEASURED AT THE ROCK SPRINGS
GAUGE WAS ROUGHLY 23 FEET ABOVE BASELINE FLOW WITH A VOLUME OF 40000
CUBIC FEET PER SECOND...THAT IS ROUGHLY 40000 BASKETBALLS FULL OF
WATER PASSING BY PER SECOND.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE ROCK SPRINGS AGUA FRIA RIVER GAUGE THIS WAS THE
5TH LARGEST FLOW ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1919 AND THE HIGHEST FLOW
EVER REPORTED FOR A SUMMER EVENT. THE LAST TIME ROCK SPRINGS GAUGE
REPORTED A HIGHER FLOW WAS THE HISTORIC WINTER STORM ON JANUARY 21ST
2010 WITH 55000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND OF WATER FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SOME STORMS WILL
LAST AFTER DARK. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLS-EYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE
COMMON WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 18Z WEDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z
WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200422
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCING THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA AND BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GROUND.

AREAS OF FLOODING WERE ALSO REPORTED MAINLY NEAR BLACK CANYON CITY
AS THE AGUA FRIA RIVER PEAK FLOW AS MEASURED AT THE ROCK SPRINGS
GAUGE WAS ROUGHLY 23 FEET ABOVE BASELINE FLOW WITH A VOLUME OF 40000
CUBIC FEET PER SECOND...THAT IS ROUGHLY 40000 BASKETBALLS FULL OF
WATER PASSING BY PER SECOND.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE ROCK SPRINGS AGUA FRIA RIVER GAUGE THIS WAS THE
5TH LARGEST FLOW ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1919 AND THE HIGHEST FLOW
EVER REPORTED FOR A SUMMER EVENT. THE LAST TIME ROCK SPRINGS GAUGE
REPORTED A HIGHER FLOW WAS THE HISTORIC WINTER STORM ON JANUARY 21ST
2010 WITH 55000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND OF WATER FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SOME STORMS WILL
LAST AFTER DARK. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLS-EYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE
COMMON WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 18Z WEDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z
WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192229
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FORMED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING CAN CAUSED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN
THE RIVERS THAT DRAIN SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTRY. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA HAD LESS INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DID ADD UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER YAVAPAI
COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO SOME STORMS WILL LAST AFTER DARK. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES ARIZONA...UPWARD
MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLS-EYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE
COMMON WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 18Z WEDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z
WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. SOME NORMALLY DRY WASHES ARE
FLOODING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORMS JUST SOUTH
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY APPEAR TO BE TRAINING--BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA
AND RAINING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS--AND MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE
UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 03Z BUT STRATUS WITH MVFR TO PERSIST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. SOME NORMALLY DRY WASHES ARE
FLOODING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORMS JUST SOUTH
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY APPEAR TO BE TRAINING--BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA
AND RAINING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS--AND MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE
UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 03Z BUT STRATUS WITH MVFR TO PERSIST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191034
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF A KPGA-KFLG-KSOW LINE THIS
MORNING...SPREADING EAST AFT 18Z. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN +RA ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190332
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ROLLING
ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ARE FORMING ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO EVENING UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190332
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ROLLING
ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ARE FORMING ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO EVENING UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. SOME STORMS PRODUCED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND OVER AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST HELPS CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAGE
THROUGH ST JOHNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. SOME STORMS PRODUCED HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND OVER AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST HELPS CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAGE
THROUGH ST JOHNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE (0.81 VS
0.70) AND MORE SHEAR THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THIS INDICATES THAT THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO LAST
NIGHT HELPED TRIGGER STORMS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE
TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST TODAY (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL
HELP CREATE LIFT OVER ARIZONA STARTING. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK AND INTERACT WITH MONSOON MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD...AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE RICH MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES HOWEVER. THE EUROPEAN TAKES THE LOW MORE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND LIMITS THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY TO TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING ALOFT AND FEEDING OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION CARRIES WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON THIS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUES. AREAS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PAGE THROUGH ST JOHNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE (0.81 VS
0.70) AND MORE SHEAR THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THIS INDICATES THAT THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO LAST
NIGHT HELPED TRIGGER STORMS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE
TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST TODAY (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL
HELP CREATE LIFT OVER ARIZONA STARTING. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK AND INTERACT WITH MONSOON MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD...AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE RICH MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES HOWEVER. THE EUROPEAN TAKES THE LOW MORE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND LIMITS THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY TO TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING ALOFT AND FEEDING OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION CARRIES WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON THIS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUES. AREAS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR ARE PROBABLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PAGE THROUGH ST JOHNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181028
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CALIFORNIA LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING
ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTERACT WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD...AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE RICH MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT  WILL DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES HOWEVER. THE EUROPEAN TAKES THE LOW MORE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND LIMITS THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY TO TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING ALOFT AND FEEDING OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION CARRIES WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THIS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN +RA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181028
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CALIFORNIA LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING
ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTERACT WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTWARD...AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE RICH MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT  WILL DEVELOP OVER
ARIZONA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SHOWERY PERIOD. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES HOWEVER. THE EUROPEAN TAKES THE LOW MORE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND LIMITS THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY TO TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING ALOFT AND FEEDING OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION CARRIES WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THIS.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW ACROSS ARIZONA MORE QUICKLY
WITH A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN TAKES IT`S TIME WITH THE LOW NOT MOVING IT
ACROSS ARIZONA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY.

IN ANY EVENT KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LOOMS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.
STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN +RA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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