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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200305
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
805 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE POP...WX AND SKY IN THE 06Z-12Z
MONDAY PERIOD.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WARMING ABOVE 550 MB
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. BELOW 55O MB...SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...
DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z ON MON...DECREASING
AFT 03Z TUE. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS OVERCOME
THE WEAK STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FORMED IN APACHE COUNTY NEAR LYMAN LAKE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
NEAR PAYSON.

ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N. ARIZONA THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS OVERCOME
THE WEAK STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FORMED IN APACHE COUNTY NEAR LYMAN LAKE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
NEAR PAYSON.

ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N. ARIZONA THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. DAY
TIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR
DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. DAY
TIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR
DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
YUMA HAS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST AND SHEARED
AIRMASS ABOVE 650MB. THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE THE LOW MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF FORCING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY SURFACE HEATING AND
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TRAILS THIS TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY COUPLED WITH RISING HGHTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO A RIGHT OF A LINE FROM KFLG-KRQE-KSJN-KPAN
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KGCN-KRQE. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
YUMA HAS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST AND SHEARED
AIRMASS ABOVE 650MB. THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE THE LOW MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF FORCING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY SURFACE HEATING AND
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TRAILS THIS TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY COUPLED WITH RISING HGHTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO A RIGHT OF A LINE FROM KFLG-KRQE-KSJN-KPAN
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KGCN-KRQE. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED...LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
BLACK MESA AREA. CHANCES HAVE NOT BEEN INCREASED MUCH...BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT. MID-LEVEL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER
COVERAGE TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND ISO -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BAK
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED...LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
BLACK MESA AREA. CHANCES HAVE NOT BEEN INCREASED MUCH...BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT. MID-LEVEL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER
COVERAGE TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND ISO -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BAK
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RISE A BIT WITH AREA DEW POINTS GENERALLY UP A FEW
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z. SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RISE A BIT WITH AREA DEW POINTS GENERALLY UP A FEW
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z. SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND COMING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A MILD WESTERLY
FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES FROM 7-10KFT
AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
18Z-02Z. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND COMING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A MILD WESTERLY
FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES FROM 7-10KFT
AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
18Z-02Z. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ONLY
MADE ONE SMALL GRID UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD. WHILE RAIN
FALLING THROUGH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERALLY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND...A FEW...SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY CAUSE
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL THERE. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
DUE TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING
DRAINAGE AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA
WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-12KFT AGL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO BE
INCLUDED IN TAFS. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DIVERGENT NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
AS INDICATED BY OUR DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DO NOT REACH THE GROUND.  A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATION SITES MEASURED ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MILD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS FOREST FOR NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS
PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DIVERGENT NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
AS INDICATED BY OUR DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DO NOT REACH THE GROUND.  A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATION SITES MEASURED ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MILD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS FOREST FOR NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS
PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DIVERGENT NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
AS INDICATED BY OUR DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DO NOT REACH THE GROUND.  A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATION SITES MEASURED ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MILD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS FOREST FOR NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS
PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DIVERGENT NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
AS INDICATED BY OUR DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DO NOT REACH THE GROUND.  A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATION SITES MEASURED ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MILD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS FOREST FOR NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS
PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND UP
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND UP
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND UP
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND UP
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















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