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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
313 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING STORM SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY. BEGINNING
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEFORE ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT THICK
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD TO VIRTUALLY ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
WELL AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS
REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL COLD
POOL MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING INSTABILITY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AS THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DRAWING GOOD LOW MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SCT -SHRA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD TSRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND ISOLD MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AS
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND LOWER HUMIDITY DEVELOP.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A DECREASING TREND IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182213
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
313 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING STORM SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY. BEGINNING
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEFORE ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT THICK
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD TO VIRTUALLY ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
WELL AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS
REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS...THE WEAK
DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AS THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DRAWING GOOD LOW MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SCT -SHRA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD TSRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND ISOLD MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AS
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND LOWER HUMIDITY DEVELOP.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A DECREASING TREND IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181642
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
942 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEFORE ANOTHER
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CAUSED MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...DEW
POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA HAVE RISEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY MOISTENING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. THE DYNAMICS FOR UPWARD MOTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXTREMELY WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOISTURE AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS.
IT WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AS THE COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE OVERHEAD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OTHERWISE...COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE IN ORDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5-10 KFT RANGE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 21-03Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS WINDOW. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY OCCUR AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 06Z-18Z SATURDAY WITH SOME LOW
VFR CEILINGS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181009
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEFORE ANOTHER
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. THE DYNAMICS FOR UPWARD MOTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXTREMELY WEAK. THE MAIN FORCING FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOISTURE AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS.
IT WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AS THE COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE OVERHEAD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OTHERWISE...COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE IN ORDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR...WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFT 17Z BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. THE CHANCE
FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180312
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
812 PM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEFORE
ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CAN THEN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /402 PM MST/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NOON ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL
AROUND 17-18Z FRIDAY...WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BOTH ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO VALUES FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172302
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
402 PM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEFORE
ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NOON ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z FRIDAY...WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO VALUES FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171609
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
909 AM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A RETURN OF FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM LATE
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR
MASS...A DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER WINDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170954
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THEN...A
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER
AND A WARMING TREND ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY AND FAIR
WEATHER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SPRING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM LATE
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR
MASS...A DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. AFTER 18Z...WINDS BECOMING SW 5-12 KTS.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST AFT 00Z FRI.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONGER WINDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THEN...A PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PERSISTING. SIGNIFICANT
SHORT-TERM UPDATES ARE UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /244 PM MST/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT REGIONS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE LONGER TERM
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-13 KTS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. WETTING RAIN IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
244 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THEN...A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT
REGIONS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL LEAD A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BEGINNING SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE
LONGER TERM MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...UNTIL 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AZ ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM KSJN-KFLG-KGCN NORTHWARD. ISOLD -SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE AZ. WINDS
W5-15G15-25KTS. FROM 02Z-18Z...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
SKIES CLEARING. AFTER 18Z...WINDS BECOMING SW5-10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. WETTING RAIN IS NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161619
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
919 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY
TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH DAY TIME
HEATING WILL CAUSE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF MILD WEATHER IS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WILL MEANDER ACROSS ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND THE USUAL
AFTERNOON SPRING BREEZES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
KSJN-KFLG-KGCN NORTHWARD. WINDS W10-15G20-25KTS. AFTER 02Z...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES CLEARING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY
WILL BE LESS THAN 10-15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY  RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161007
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEEK OF TYPICAL APRIL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER UNDER VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL GIVE WINDS A
SLIGHT BOOST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WILL MEANDER ACROSS ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND THE USUAL
AFTERNOON SPRING BREEZES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
UNDER A BAND OF PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 18Z...WINDS
BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS...DECREASING AFT 01Z
THURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE
LESS THAN 10-15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY  RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 160447
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A S/WV RIDGE THURSDAY...AND THEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MEANS SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAS ENOUGH COLD
MID-LEVEL AIR FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS BUT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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