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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TODAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED SO GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL CIRCULATION WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER AREAS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
03Z...THEN ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE KFGZ MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 600 MB. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO
INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 500 MB. WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A FEW
FOR TODAY AND POPS UP SOME FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND
EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT
DECENT PW VALUES INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS
BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z...BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER 03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/PETERSON
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE KFGZ MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 600 MB. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO
INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 500 MB. WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A FEW
FOR TODAY AND POPS UP SOME FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND
EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT
DECENT PW VALUES INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS
BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z...BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER 03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/PETERSON
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT DECENT PW VALUES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT DECENT PW VALUES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED 3-4 DEGREE C WARMING UP
TO 700 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 900 AM MST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 3-8 DEGREE F WARMING (OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS)
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MADE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. HAVE MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. SATELLITE PW
IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN AND
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND WEST IT
IS AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LES...SOUTH-EAST IT IS 0.75 UP TO OVER
1.50 OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS
GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DECREASING NORTH
THROUGH WEST...NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /655 AM MST/...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW
AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH
1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS
FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL
BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED
STORMS AS THE MOISTURE PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN
18Z TUE -03Z WEDS...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221624
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221624
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM TODAY...THEN AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN
GRADUALLY REPLACED BY WETTER STORMS BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM TODAY...THEN AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN
GRADUALLY REPLACED BY WETTER STORMS BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK WILL
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA TIL 02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK WILL
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA TIL 02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211604
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND A DISTURBANCE HEADING NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND THE FORECAST
HAS AN INCREASING TREND FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH BOUDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /305 AM MST/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SIX MANAGED WILDFIRES...THE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...FROM THE GRAND
CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF
PAYSON. THESE FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PATCHY SMOKE NEAR
THE GROUND IN THE VICINITY AROUND EACH FIRE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE...MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211004
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND A DISTURBANCE HEADING NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND THE FORECAST
HAS AN INCREASING TREND FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SIX MANAGED WILDFIRES...THE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...FROM THE GRAND
CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF
PAYSON. THESE FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PATCHY SMOKE NEAR
THE GROUND IN THE VICINITY AROUND EACH FIRE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE...MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT  VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD
HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211004
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND A DISTURBANCE HEADING NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND THE FORECAST
HAS AN INCREASING TREND FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SIX MANAGED WILDFIRES...THE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...FROM THE GRAND
CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF
PAYSON. THESE FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PATCHY SMOKE NEAR
THE GROUND IN THE VICINITY AROUND EACH FIRE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE...MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT  VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD
HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210406
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210406
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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