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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021118
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
418 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
THIS IS THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT A COMPLETE
SHUT-OFF IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021118
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
418 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
THIS IS THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT A COMPLETE
SHUT-OFF IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021118
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
418 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
THIS IS THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT A COMPLETE
SHUT-OFF IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021118
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
418 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
THIS IS THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT A COMPLETE
SHUT-OFF IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020355
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED BY MID
EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL 18Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON TO CHINLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TAYLOR
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020355
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED BY MID
EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL 18Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON TO CHINLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TAYLOR
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
417 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN QUITE SUBDUED
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY.
EVEN SO...RAIN RATES WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS UP NORTH OVER
THE SLICK ROCK HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO
WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. WITH LITTLE EXTERNAL FORCING OTHER
THAN DAYTIME HEATING..EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
RIM/WHITES/CHUSKAS...WITH LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
417 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN QUITE SUBDUED
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY.
EVEN SO...RAIN RATES WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS UP NORTH OVER
THE SLICK ROCK HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO
WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. WITH LITTLE EXTERNAL FORCING OTHER
THAN DAYTIME HEATING..EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
RIM/WHITES/CHUSKAS...WITH LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011648
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LESS INTENSE STORMS OVERALL TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY
AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED. MOST STORMS FROM NEAR I-17/US 89
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE
EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES
SUCH AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND
THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
THE EASTERN ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR/PETERSON
AVIATION...RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011648
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LESS INTENSE STORMS OVERALL TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY
AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED. MOST STORMS FROM NEAR I-17/US 89
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE
EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES
SUCH AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND
THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
THE EASTERN ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR/PETERSON
AVIATION...RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011030
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER APACHE COUNTY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A
S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE
WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES SUCH
AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS ARE
ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS OUT
FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THE EASTERN
ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NOON. STORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY AFTERNOON AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011030
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER APACHE COUNTY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A
S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE
WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES SUCH
AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS ARE
ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS OUT
FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THE EASTERN
ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NOON. STORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY AFTERNOON AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011030
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER APACHE COUNTY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO LINGERING FORCING FROM A
S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL S/WV SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE
WESTERN ZONES TODAY...MAYBE EVEN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.

THE DRYING WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEST-MOVING OUTFLOW (EVEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) DEVELOPED OVER PHOENIX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...FEATURES SUCH
AS THIS WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRYING. BEHIND THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE THURSDAY.

DESPITE THIS...MANY GFS MEMBERS STILL INSIST THAT THE BACKING FLOW
FROM HGHT FALLS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MANY MODELS ARE
ALSO FORECASTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTRUSION OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO REALLY DRY THINGS OUT
FROM WEST AS WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THE EASTERN
ZONES MAY NEVER SEE A DECREASE AT ALL...WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST POP GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NOON. STORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY AFTERNOON AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010323
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
822 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY EXCITE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE RAISED
POPS A BIT MORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
THE RETURN OF STORM ACTIVITY AS PER THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /359 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY ACROSS MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. SEVERAL
STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
17Z ON TUESDAY...WITH STORM MOST NUMEROUS SOUTHEAST OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/RR
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010323
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
822 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY EXCITE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE RAISED
POPS A BIT MORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
THE RETURN OF STORM ACTIVITY AS PER THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /359 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY ACROSS MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. SEVERAL
STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
17Z ON TUESDAY...WITH STORM MOST NUMEROUS SOUTHEAST OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/RR
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010323
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
822 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY EXCITE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE RAISED
POPS A BIT MORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
THE RETURN OF STORM ACTIVITY AS PER THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /359 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY ACROSS MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. SEVERAL
STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
17Z ON TUESDAY...WITH STORM MOST NUMEROUS SOUTHEAST OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/RR
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312259
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
359 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT. AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLD AFT 05Z TUESDAY. LCL IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/CLM
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312259
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
359 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT. AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLD AFT 05Z TUESDAY. LCL IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/CLM
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312259
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
359 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT. AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLD AFT 05Z TUESDAY. LCL IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/CLM
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312259
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
359 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT. AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
MOST NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY, BUT THERE
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY MESOSCALE MECHANISM IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT TO GET ACTIVITY GOING THERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WITH
ISOLATED OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN, SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE
MODEST SHEAR VALUES AND AT LEAST LIMITED CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION GREATLY
REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLD AFT 05Z TUESDAY. LCL IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/CLM
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
143 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SITS AN
ENHANCED BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WITH A PAIR OF JET MAXIMA, AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW.
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50`S TO THE MID 60`S,
WITH THE GREATEST DEW POINTS IN THE LOW DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEALS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS VALUES. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE
INCREASED, WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS INDICATED BY THE SOUNDING. IN
ADDITION, ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLED ABOVE 500 MB. MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVER 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. STORM
MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AROUND 15
KNOTS.

HI-RES MODEL RUNS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA FORECAST ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OCCURRING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. IN ADDITION, THEY
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RIM IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION. THIS TREND APPEARS TO CAPTURED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SREF POP FORECAST AS WELL, BUT EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAKENING JET MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA FROM TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO, FOR TODAY`S FORECAST, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, INCREASED
SHEAR MEANS WE COULD SEE A FEW ROTATING STORMS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, BUT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST. EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG
EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THIS...POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST
TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN...KFLG...KPAN. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 05Z TUESDAY.
LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT ISOLD -TSRA AFT 05Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
143 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SITS AN
ENHANCED BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WITH A PAIR OF JET MAXIMA, AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW.
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. VALUES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50`S TO THE MID 60`S,
WITH THE GREATEST DEW POINTS IN THE LOW DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF REVEALS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS VALUES. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE
INCREASED, WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS INDICATED BY THE SOUNDING. IN
ADDITION, ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLED ABOVE 500 MB. MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVER 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. STORM
MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AROUND 15
KNOTS.

HI-RES MODEL RUNS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA FORECAST ANOTHER
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OCCURRING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. IN ADDITION, THEY
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RIM IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION. THIS TREND APPEARS TO CAPTURED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SREF POP FORECAST AS WELL, BUT EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAKENING JET MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA FROM TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO, FOR TODAY`S FORECAST, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, INCREASED
SHEAR MEANS WE COULD SEE A FEW ROTATING STORMS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, BUT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST. EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG
EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THIS...POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST
TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN...KFLG...KPAN. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 05Z TUESDAY.
LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT ISOLD -TSRA AFT 05Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN SUNDAY.
THIS IS DUE A WEAK S/WV OVER SOCAL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL JET SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND COOLING ALOFT TO ACT ON OUR PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A BIT MORE
SHEAR AND CAPE FROM SUNDAY...SO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE
THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST.
EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING ON THIS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
TO CONVECT THE AIR MASS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN SUNDAY.
THIS IS DUE A WEAK S/WV OVER SOCAL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL JET SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND COOLING ALOFT TO ACT ON OUR PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A BIT MORE
SHEAR AND CAPE FROM SUNDAY...SO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE
THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST.
EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING ON THIS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
TO CONVECT THE AIR MASS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN SUNDAY.
THIS IS DUE A WEAK S/WV OVER SOCAL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL JET SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND COOLING ALOFT TO ACT ON OUR PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A BIT MORE
SHEAR AND CAPE FROM SUNDAY...SO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE
THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST.
EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING ON THIS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
TO CONVECT THE AIR MASS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN SUNDAY.
THIS IS DUE A WEAK S/WV OVER SOCAL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL JET SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND COOLING ALOFT TO ACT ON OUR PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A BIT MORE
SHEAR AND CAPE FROM SUNDAY...SO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE
THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST.
EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING ON THIS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
TO CONVECT THE AIR MASS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310413
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
913 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO
THE FAR EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS
GENERALLY WANING. EXPECT CHANCES TO CONTINUE THRU THE
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
AFFECTED MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HAIL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON
THE SMALL SIZE, ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL
IN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF
TSRA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310413
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
913 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO
THE FAR EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS
GENERALLY WANING. EXPECT CHANCES TO CONTINUE THRU THE
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
AFFECTED MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HAIL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON
THE SMALL SIZE, ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL
IN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF
TSRA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO
THE FAR EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. HAIL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE SMALL SIZE,
ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN YAVAPAI COUNTY
EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS EVENING...DECREASING AFT 03Z.
EXPECT MVFR CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
EXPECT ISOLD -SHRA AFTER 03Z...WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO
THE FAR EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. HAIL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE SMALL SIZE,
ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN YAVAPAI COUNTY
EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS EVENING...DECREASING AFT 03Z.
EXPECT MVFR CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
EXPECT ISOLD -SHRA AFTER 03Z...WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301650
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE DAY TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE CUMULIFORM CLOUD ARE PRESENT. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHICS, AND FORCING FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

OBSERVED DUE POINTS REVEAL SURFACE MOISTURE IS UP A BIT SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 40`S TO THE LOW 60`S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE GREATEST VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOW
DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM FLAGSTAFF PREDICT THAT AROUND 600 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIEKLY DEVELOP
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY - WHERE THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW
TODAY, WITH 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

THIS MORNINGS HI-RES MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TODAY WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN TERMS OF UPDATES, ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MADE FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...HIGHER PW VALUES AS WELL AS
IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...DELIVERING A FAR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING ROUGHLY TO A
LINE FROM I-17 EASTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES STEADILY DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL
COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFT 03Z MONDAY...WITH
ISOLD - SHRA THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301650
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE DAY TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE CUMULIFORM CLOUD ARE PRESENT. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHICS, AND FORCING FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

OBSERVED DUE POINTS REVEAL SURFACE MOISTURE IS UP A BIT SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 40`S TO THE LOW 60`S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE GREATEST VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOW
DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM FLAGSTAFF PREDICT THAT AROUND 600 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIEKLY DEVELOP
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY - WHERE THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW
TODAY, WITH 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

THIS MORNINGS HI-RES MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TODAY WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN TERMS OF UPDATES, ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MADE FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...HIGHER PW VALUES AS WELL AS
IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...DELIVERING A FAR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING ROUGHLY TO A
LINE FROM I-17 EASTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES STEADILY DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL
COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFT 03Z MONDAY...WITH
ISOLD - SHRA THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301650
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE DAY TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE CUMULIFORM CLOUD ARE PRESENT. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHICS, AND FORCING FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

OBSERVED DUE POINTS REVEAL SURFACE MOISTURE IS UP A BIT SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 40`S TO THE LOW 60`S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE GREATEST VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOW
DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM FLAGSTAFF PREDICT THAT AROUND 600 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIEKLY DEVELOP
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY - WHERE THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW
TODAY, WITH 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

THIS MORNINGS HI-RES MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TODAY WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN TERMS OF UPDATES, ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MADE FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...HIGHER PW VALUES AS WELL AS
IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...DELIVERING A FAR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING ROUGHLY TO A
LINE FROM I-17 EASTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES STEADILY DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL
COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFT 03Z MONDAY...WITH
ISOLD - SHRA THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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