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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281720
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY...BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
COCONINO PLATEAU...GLEN/GRAND CANYON...AND THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY ZONES FOR TODAY. HAVE ALSO CHANGED WORDING
IN SEVERAL ZONES CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS FOR
THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /400 AM MST/...

TODAY LOOK FORWARD TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA/CALIFORNIA COAST LINE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ON ITS EAST FLANKS...THIS WILL TEND TO HELP DEEPEN THE
MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CAL/SOUTHERN NV/AND AZ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS IT DOES THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH OVER AN INCH PW VALUES BEING PULLED INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ALONG WITH A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM STILL HAVE THE GREATEST FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING SNOW LEVELS FROM
8000 TO 8500 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY TO AROUND THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL.
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DEEPER...AND
WARMER SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THAT SNOW COULD MIX
WITH RAIN OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM AROUND 7000 FEET
AND ABOVE. HOWEVER ONCE THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME ARRIVES THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE BACK UP. IT IS STILL UNDETERMINED HOW MUCH COLD AIR
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL ON SATURDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN
DEVELOP SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SATURDAY COULD BE COME A WEATHER HAZARD...BUT FOR NOW WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT COULD RANGE FROM 0.5
INCHES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO OVER 2.0 INCHES OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN GLEN CANYON AND INSIDE THE GRAND CANYON WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE....EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

BOHLIN CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU AND MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN AFFECTED
AREAS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......BOLHIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281105
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY...BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST WX SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ON
OVERPASSES ABOVE 6500 FEET.

TODAY LOOK FORWARD TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA/CALIFORNIA COAST LINE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ON ITS EAST FLANKS...THIS WILL TEND TO HELP DEEPEN THE
MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CAL/SOUTHERN NV/AND AZ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS IT DOES THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH OVER AN INCH PW VALUES BEING PULLED INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ALONG WITH A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM STILL HAVE THE GREATEST FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING SNOW LEVELS FROM
8000 TO 8500 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY TO AROUND THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL.
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DEEPER...AND
WARMER SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THAT SNOW COULD MIX
WITH RAIN OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM AROUND 7000 FEET
AND ABOVE. HOWEVER ONCE THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME ARRIVES THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE BACK UP. IT IS STILL UNDETERMINED HOW MUCH COLD AIR
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL ON SATURDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN
DEVELOP SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SATURDAY COULD BE COME A WEATHER HAZARD...BUT FOR NOW WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT COULD RANGE FROM 0.5
INCHES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO OVER 2.0 INCHES OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE CAUSED PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
AFFECTED AREAS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281105
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY...BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST WX SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ON
OVERPASSES ABOVE 6500 FEET.

TODAY LOOK FORWARD TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

A WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA/CALIFORNIA COAST LINE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ON ITS EAST FLANKS...THIS WILL TEND TO HELP DEEPEN THE
MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CAL/SOUTHERN NV/AND AZ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS IT DOES THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH OVER AN INCH PW VALUES BEING PULLED INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ALONG WITH A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM STILL HAVE THE GREATEST FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING SNOW LEVELS FROM
8000 TO 8500 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY TO AROUND THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL.
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DEEPER...AND
WARMER SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ARRIVES THAT SNOW COULD MIX
WITH RAIN OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM AROUND 7000 FEET
AND ABOVE. HOWEVER ONCE THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME ARRIVES THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE BACK UP. IT IS STILL UNDETERMINED HOW MUCH COLD AIR
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL ON SATURDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN
DEVELOP SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SATURDAY COULD BE COME A WEATHER HAZARD...BUT FOR NOW WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT COULD RANGE FROM 0.5
INCHES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO OVER 2.0 INCHES OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE CAUSED PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
AFFECTED AREAS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HRS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /516 PM MST/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED SLOWLY
DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO POPULATION CENTERS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE FROM
KGCN-KFLG-KSOW SOUTHWARD 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HRS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /516 PM MST/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED SLOWLY
DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO POPULATION CENTERS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE FROM
KGCN-KFLG-KSOW SOUTHWARD 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
516 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND
CANYON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED SLOWLY DEEPEN
AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE BAJA
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE 7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO 6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO POPULATION CENTERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE
FROM KGCN-KFLG-KSOW SOUTHWARD 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/KD
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
516 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND
CANYON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED SLOWLY DEEPEN
AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE BAJA
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE 7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO 6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO POPULATION CENTERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE
FROM KGCN-KFLG-KSOW SOUTHWARD 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/KD
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS AND RENO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DECREASING DYNAMICS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE THIS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /445 AM MST/...THIS LOW PULLED PLENTY OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL
0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS FARTHER
NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING TREND
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL
NORTH OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL 00Z...STILL ANTICIPATING
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED
PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE FROM KGCN-KFLG SOUTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS AND RENO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DECREASING DYNAMICS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE THIS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /445 AM MST/...THIS LOW PULLED PLENTY OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL
0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS FARTHER
NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING TREND
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL
NORTH OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL 00Z...STILL ANTICIPATING
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED
PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE FROM KGCN-KFLG SOUTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271147
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AWAY FROM ARIZONA. THIS LOW PULLED
PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A
GENERAL 0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE
LOW HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CAUSING RAINSHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
OBSCURING MOUNTAIN TOPS AND LIKELY LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271147
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AWAY FROM ARIZONA. THIS LOW PULLED
PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A
GENERAL 0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE
LOW HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CAUSING RAINSHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
OBSCURING MOUNTAIN TOPS AND LIKELY LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW NEARING SAN DIEGO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER
ARIZONA. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT NORTHWARD BY THIS
WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. SHOWERS BEING REPORTED FROM
PHOENIX WEST AND NORTHWEST...ALL THE WAY TO PALM SPRINGS AND UP TO
LAS VEGAS. RAINFALL HAVING TROUBLE DEVELOPING EAST OF I-17 AS THE
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WAS VERY DRY...SEE THE 00Z
FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING.

WE WERE GOING TO MAKE UPDATES EARLIER THIS EVENING TO TRIM BACK POPS
AND PUSH THE HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST. THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM OUR MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON CURRENT IR/RADAR IMAGERY...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS WAS PREMATURE AND
OUR POPS MAY BE GOOD IN A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENING
MESOSCALE MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY BASED ON THE VERY DRY ARIZONA
SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF RADAR ACTIVITY...BUT THINGS HAVE FILLED IN
SINCE THEN.

OTHER WORRIES/ISSUES INCLUDE POSSIBLE WET-BULBING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FLAGSTAFF CURRENTLY AT 38/26 AND THE SOUNDING HAS
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR WET-BULBING FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. OTHER CONCERNS ARE THAT POPS ARE STILL A BIT HIGH...A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE EAST AND MAY PERSIST TOO LONG INTO TUESDAY.

BUT...IN GENERAL...THE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. MINOR UPDATES MAY ARISE LATER AS WET BULB
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE QUESTIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LOCAL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW NEARING SAN DIEGO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER
ARIZONA. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT NORTHWARD BY THIS
WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. SHOWERS BEING REPORTED FROM
PHOENIX WEST AND NORTHWEST...ALL THE WAY TO PALM SPRINGS AND UP TO
LAS VEGAS. RAINFALL HAVING TROUBLE DEVELOPING EAST OF I-17 AS THE
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WAS VERY DRY...SEE THE 00Z
FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING.

WE WERE GOING TO MAKE UPDATES EARLIER THIS EVENING TO TRIM BACK POPS
AND PUSH THE HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST. THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM OUR MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON CURRENT IR/RADAR IMAGERY...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS WAS PREMATURE AND
OUR POPS MAY BE GOOD IN A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENING
MESOSCALE MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY BASED ON THE VERY DRY ARIZONA
SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF RADAR ACTIVITY...BUT THINGS HAVE FILLED IN
SINCE THEN.

OTHER WORRIES/ISSUES INCLUDE POSSIBLE WET-BULBING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FLAGSTAFF CURRENTLY AT 38/26 AND THE SOUNDING HAS
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR WET-BULBING FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. OTHER CONCERNS ARE THAT POPS ARE STILL A BIT HIGH...A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE EAST AND MAY PERSIST TOO LONG INTO TUESDAY.

BUT...IN GENERAL...THE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. MINOR UPDATES MAY ARISE LATER AS WET BULB
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE QUESTIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LOCAL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
INTO IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SUB-TROPICAL AIR TO
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED
ACROSS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG 30N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130 WEST WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTO IDAHO. DEEP MOISTURE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO ARIZONA.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE OVER AN INCH PW OVER NORTHEASTERN
SONORA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH... 8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE
MORE MOISTURE AND WILL LINGER LONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS STILL LOW...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CHANGE...SO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
INTO IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SUB-TROPICAL AIR TO
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED
ACROSS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG 30N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130 WEST WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTO IDAHO. DEEP MOISTURE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO ARIZONA.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE OVER AN INCH PW OVER NORTHEASTERN
SONORA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH... 8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE
MORE MOISTURE AND WILL LINGER LONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS STILL LOW...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CHANGE...SO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR EARLIER ONSET
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL 00Z...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
11 KFT MSL. AFTER 00Z...RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS AT
OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR EARLIER ONSET
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL 00Z...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
11 KFT MSL. AFTER 00Z...RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS AT
OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261111
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUES.
INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH 18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 11KFT MSL
BY 00Z TUE. AFT 00Z RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH 12Z TUES. SNOW LEVELS AOA
9000 FEET. SFC WINDS NORTHEAST-EAST 5-15KT THIS MORNING BECOMING
EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261111
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUES.
INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH 18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 11KFT MSL
BY 00Z TUE. AFT 00Z RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH 12Z TUES. SNOW LEVELS AOA
9000 FEET. SFC WINDS NORTHEAST-EAST 5-15KT THIS MORNING BECOMING
EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. STARTING
MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO HAS SLOWED DOWN BY
ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WILL ARRIVE LATER AS WELL
ON MONDAY...SO WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. RAINFALL
DOES NOT ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON...MAYBE
NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IT IS VERY WARM...SO QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT
SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO COLDER AIR MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. STILL A BIT
EARLY TOO TELL...BUT WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE CIRRUS THROUGH
18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 18Z AND INTO TUESDAY. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. STARTING
MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO HAS SLOWED DOWN BY
ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WILL ARRIVE LATER AS WELL
ON MONDAY...SO WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. RAINFALL
DOES NOT ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON...MAYBE
NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IT IS VERY WARM...SO QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT
SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO COLDER AIR MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. STILL A BIT
EARLY TOO TELL...BUT WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE CIRRUS THROUGH
18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 18Z AND INTO TUESDAY. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252223
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO HAS SLOWED DOWN
BY ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WILL ARRIVE LATER AS WELL
ON MONDAY...SO WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. RAINFALL DOES
NOT ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON...MAYBE NOT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IT IS VERY WARM...SO QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT SOME
WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW BY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY FORM A
BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO COLDER
AIR MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. STILL A BIT EARLY TOO TELL...BUT WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN FOR THE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 12Z...THEN SCT-BKN250 WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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