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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252230
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURABANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY FROM THE
KIABAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA
STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK LINE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z TUES. ISOLD TSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER. SFC WINDS TUES AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252230
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURABANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY FROM THE
KIABAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA
STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK LINE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z TUES. ISOLD TSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER. SFC WINDS TUES AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY
EVENING. BY TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
TOMORROW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM A TROUGH TO A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

SO FAR MAY 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS COMPARED
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LAST TIME THE MONTH OF MAY HAD THIS MUCH
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WAS SIX YEARS AGO BACK IN
MAY OF 2009.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL
IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A
MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MADE ITS WAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTH RIM
OF THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD THROUGH PAGE AND KAYENTA RECEIVING
0.50 TO OVER 1.00 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE IS MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR YUMA AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 10KFT MSL MAY BE OBSCURED. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA
TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MADE ITS WAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTH RIM
OF THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD THROUGH PAGE AND KAYENTA RECEIVING
0.50 TO OVER 1.00 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE IS MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR YUMA AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 10KFT MSL MAY BE OBSCURED. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA
TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241152
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND
EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE THROUGH
15Z...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREA BY
17Z- 19Z...CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FOR MOST
AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN- KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA TERMINAL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241152
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND
EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE THROUGH
15Z...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREA BY
17Z- 19Z...CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE FOR MOST
AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN- KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA TERMINAL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...JJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240414 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232201
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
301 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN
EARNEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232201
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
301 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN
EARNEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232201
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
301 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN
EARNEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232201
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
301 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN
EARNEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
SUSTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING MAINLY FROM I-40 NORTHWARD
TOWARD UTAH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 AM MST/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN
12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN
TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
SUSTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING MAINLY FROM I-40 NORTHWARD
TOWARD UTAH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 AM MST/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN
12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN
TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
SUSTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING MAINLY FROM I-40 NORTHWARD
TOWARD UTAH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 AM MST/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN
12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN
TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
SUSTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING MAINLY FROM I-40 NORTHWARD
TOWARD UTAH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 AM MST/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN
12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN
TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL
IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 16Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO
25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL
IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 16Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO
25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL
IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 16Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO
25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231043
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL
IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 16Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO
25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL





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