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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION...RESULTING
IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE...A UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP US IN AN
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LASTING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER GRADE MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING UP
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA
WILL CONTINUE. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE 4-CORNERS...MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
SUNNY AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE
THIS POSSIBILITY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 AM MST)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18-20Z AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY EVENING.
MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE 4-CORNERS...MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
SUNNY AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE
THIS POSSIBILITY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 AM MST)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18-20Z AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY EVENING.
MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271014
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RATHER STRONG STORMS MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOVED INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NEAR
FLAGSTAFF ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE FROM FAR WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHERN APACHE/NAVAJO COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE THIS
EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271014
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RATHER STRONG STORMS MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOVED INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NEAR
FLAGSTAFF ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE FROM FAR WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHERN APACHE/NAVAJO COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE THIS
EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270459
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOWS RESULTING IN A
DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING NEAR THE LARGER
COMMUNITIES OF FLAGSTAFF...PRESCOTT...SHOW LOW AND PAYSON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN ARIZONA STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AND TROUGH COUPLET
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
OF DECENT STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...LOWER GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE
TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY 06Z.
IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270459
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOWS RESULTING IN A
DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING NEAR THE LARGER
COMMUNITIES OF FLAGSTAFF...PRESCOTT...SHOW LOW AND PAYSON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN ARIZONA STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AND TROUGH COUPLET
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
OF DECENT STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...LOWER GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE
TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY 06Z.
IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262114
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD RETURN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR IS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF WEAK STORMS GOING AS OF 2 PM.
THERE IS A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO
PHOENIX LINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO THE 15-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED BASED ON THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.

PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE.

STARTING TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WITH DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY START A DOWNWARD TREND ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY AND
THIS TREND MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE LOWERED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA
OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262114
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD RETURN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR IS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF WEAK STORMS GOING AS OF 2 PM.
THERE IS A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO
PHOENIX LINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO THE 15-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED BASED ON THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.

PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE.

STARTING TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WITH DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY START A DOWNWARD TREND ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY AND
THIS TREND MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE LOWERED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA
OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 AM...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION.
THERE IS STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME
AREAS...BUT BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A
STANDARD PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z THEN DECREASING COVERAGE. IMPACTS
ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM MODERATE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41/ PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 AM...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION.
THERE IS STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME
AREAS...BUT BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A
STANDARD PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z THEN DECREASING COVERAGE. IMPACTS
ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM MODERATE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41/ PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261102
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN
UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME AREAS...BUT
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A STANDARD
PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE ACTIVITY
MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z AND LAST THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET. IMPACTS ARE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM LOCALLY
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261102
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN
UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME AREAS...BUT
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A STANDARD
PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE ACTIVITY
MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ.
EXPECT VERY LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z AND LAST THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET. IMPACTS ARE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM LOCALLY
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260413
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AND STREAMLINE WIND PATTERNS THAT SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING
STORMS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS ALWAYS DURING AN ACTIVE
MONSOON THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS
WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID WEATHER IN OTHER LOCATIONS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS.

THERE ARE AT LEAST SEVEN ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SMOKE FROM THESE ACTIVE FIRES OCCASIONALLY MAY DRIFT OVER NEARBY
TOWNS/CITIES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ACTIVE FIRES IN YOUR AREA GO
TO THE WEB AT INCIWEB.NWCG.GOV AND SELECT THE STATE OF ARIZONA.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO 35KTS
LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260413
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AND STREAMLINE WIND PATTERNS THAT SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING
STORMS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS ALWAYS DURING AN ACTIVE
MONSOON THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS
WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID WEATHER IN OTHER LOCATIONS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS.

THERE ARE AT LEAST SEVEN ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SMOKE FROM THESE ACTIVE FIRES OCCASIONALLY MAY DRIFT OVER NEARBY
TOWNS/CITIES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ACTIVE FIRES IN YOUR AREA GO
TO THE WEB AT INCIWEB.NWCG.GOV AND SELECT THE STATE OF ARIZONA.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO 35KTS
LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE...TO FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR EAST OF
THIS LINE HAS REALLY LIMITED ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN AZ
BY MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING TOMORROW...SO A
RETURN TO A MORE STANDARD MONSOON STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VISBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 6Z.  LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO
35KTS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE...TO FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR EAST OF
THIS LINE HAS REALLY LIMITED ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN AZ
BY MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING TOMORROW...SO A
RETURN TO A MORE STANDARD MONSOON STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VISBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 6Z.  LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO
35KTS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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