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000
FXUS63 KFSD 132059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS ON IMPENDING SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF WAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH MONTANA.
CURRENT SEEING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL SD
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BAND RUNNING INTO DRY LAYER PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES IF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR AREA AS OF
20Z. HIGH-RES MODELS SHIFT THIS BAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER THE DRY
LAYER UNTIL MORE SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM APPROACHING WAVE REACHES THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...EVEN COARSER NAM/GFS SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF THIS BAND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POSITION...
PRIMARILY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR JUST BRUSHING AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RESULTS IN LOWER
AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT STILL A
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT...EXPECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 TO SEE A
BREAK IN SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EVENING/EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PRECISE TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION...SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER TREND SEEN IN THE MODELS TODAY IS
TO BRING A WRAP-AROUND AREA OF SNOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 12Z
RUN OF NAM WAS VERY ROBUST WITH AMOUNT OF PRECIP PRODUCED IN THIS
AREA...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS INDICATED THE PRECIP WRAPPING IN BUT
AT A MUCH LIGHTER RATE. 18Z NAM HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON THE BULLSEYE
OF QPF/SNOW IN OUR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT TONIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
SIGNAL THAT THIS AREA WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW OR A LITTLE
MORE THAT WE BUMPED POPS INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

BASED SOLELY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...CONTEMPLATED DROPPING ADVISORY
FROM SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE HIGHLIGHT IN OUR
AREA. HOWEVER WITH ADDED COMPLICATION OF THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE EAST-WEST I-90...
OPTED TO KEEP THE HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW.

BEYOND THE SNOW...LONG-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST/20S WEST EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK. WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S FAR EAST TO AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MIDDLE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NIGHT WITH NO SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SKIES MAY BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A WHILE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. AFTER A MODEST DROP TO AROUND 20 OR IN THE 20S
MONDAY NIGHT...WARMING TUESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO
THE 30S...WITH SOME 40S SOUTHWEST CORNER.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE ALMOST ALL ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BROAD WARMING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE PRESENTS THE THREAT OF SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BEFORE THE
AIR COOLS LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE WAVE IS PASSING. WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED IN THE EAST AND MORE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE OR TWO INCHES
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF A DE SMET TO PARKER SD TO SIOUX CITY
LINE. A LITTLE GLAZING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME AREA EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS USUAL...PROSPECTS OF GREATER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE
WILL NEED A STRENGTHENING OF THE CANADIAN WAVE OVER HOW THE MODELS
CURRENTLY DEPICT IT...AND MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH
OTHER NOW...WHIPPING THE SYSTEM ACROSS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE
EAST. A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT WITH LESS THERMAL SUPPORT THAN WITH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THE FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD PROVIDE AT THE WORST A
FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY DECENT WARMING THEN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING THE
QUICK WARMUP. A UPPER WAVE DENTING THE RIDGE ABOUT FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN
SHALLOWER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY AND THIS LEADS TO GOING WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND LEAVING PRECIPITATION OUT. IF ANYTHING...THE
THREAT WOULD HAVE TO BE A FEW APRIL SHOWERS ARRIVING TWO MONTHS
EARLY. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO PRECLUDE MUCH COOLING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS NEXT WEEKEND NEARS...AND GIVEN A RESURGENCE OF
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THE REST OF THIS MONTH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 21Z
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-30KT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW 00Z-12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 131816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 21Z
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-30KT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW 00Z-12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 131816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 21Z
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-30KT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW 00Z-12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 131816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 21Z
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-30KT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW 00Z-12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 131112
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW DEVELOPS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
     013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 131112
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW DEVELOPS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
     013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 131112
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW DEVELOPS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
     013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 130931
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR. THIS IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BUT WILL BE
FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EAST BUT THIS IS A SPOT WHERE A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND COULD DEVELOP SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 4Z FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
RUNS.WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT DE SMET THROUGH LUVERNE TOWARDS SPENCER IOWA.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANY LIFT FROM ABOUT 750-
700MB SHOULD HAVE SOME ABILITY TO RISE FAIRLY EASILY. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH
SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5
AM SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO BE LINGERING SNOWFALL BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS LIFT...THIS JUST APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES SO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
WIND INTERACTING WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND THE NEW SNOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME PRETTY GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AT TIMES WE
OVERDO THE SOUTH WINDS IN CASES LIKE THIS AS MIXING IS NOT AS DEEP
AS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR THE ADVISORY VERSUS A BLIZZARD
WARNING. BUT...DO SUSPECT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SO WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING...ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A LITTLE
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT THAT POINT. QPF AMOUNTS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND AN
INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUST A SHADE LOWER...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S...TO A FEW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH THAT...COULD
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MAINLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 00Z. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN GREATER EARNEST ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I29
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...AVERAGING 15 TO 30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SPREADING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL DROP TO IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ039-040-056.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
     013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 130434
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1034 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALONE AS NEW GRIDS SHOW THE 20
BELOW TO 30 DEGREE BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES STILL IN THE SAME AREA
EAST OF I 29. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT ARE LOW TEMPERATURES. MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW FLUFF TO CONTEND WITH...
THEREFORE EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES LOOK TOO MILD. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST
AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT OVERNIGHT. BUT EVENTUALLY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB UPWARD...FIRST IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THEN FINALLY EAST OF I 29 TOWARD MORNING. IN GREGORY
COUNTY HOWEVER...ACTUALLY WENT THE OPPOSITE AND TRENDED WARMER THEN
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR LOWS AS THEIR CLOUD COVER MAY NOT TOTALLY
ERODE. AND THEIR WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN QUITE EARLY
TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. FIRST OF ALL...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THESE CHANCES THEN DRIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO A DUSTING OR LESS. BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THOSE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME INSTEAD CHOOSING TO FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL HIT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY GENERAL SNOW WITH THE CONCENTRATION ON MOST MODELS BEING
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL AND
MORE SO THE NAM SHOW A PRECIPITATION AXIS FURTHER SOUTH AND FEEL AS
DO SOME OTHERS THAT THEY ARE OUTLIERS ON THIS. IN ANY EVENT GIVEN
THAT THE AIR WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE FROM H7 ON UP...THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT COPIOUS...AND THE PRESENCE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
WAA...THE SNOW COULD BE BANDED GIVEN THE DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT
WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TRANSITIONING TO MUCH LIGHTER OVER
A SHORT DISTANCE. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEL VARIATIONS IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME WHERE THE BEST NARROW SNOW BAND/S WOULD BE SO
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH THE MORE GENERAL IDEA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
NORTHEAST HALF AND 1 TO 3 SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY QUESTION ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS IN THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MOST OF
THE WARM AIR UPSTAIRS AND MOST OTHER MODELS COOLER. AFTER LOADING A
BLEND ON MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GETTING ONLY A LITTLE WARM WEDGE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY EVENING...DECIDED TO KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION SNOW...ALLOWING FOR COOLING IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
IN THAT CHANCE POP AREA.

WINDS WILL BE STIFF WITH THE START OF THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT BLOWING
SNOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO THREATEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE START THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF FROM THE WEST LATE.
AFTER COORDINATION...AND SINCE WINDS ARE NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR
BLIZZARD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA
WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS...BASICALLY FROM NORTH OF SIOUX
FALLS INTO SOUTHWEST MN.

TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE WARMING SLOWLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS EARLY. READINGS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHWEST BE THE END OF THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER SHOULD
END STEADILY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
LAG A LITTLE WITH FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT....OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL WEAKEN
AND DIE...WITH SUNDAY BEING WARMER BUT NOT WARMING...IF THAT MAKES
SENSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY WAVE AND THE
RETURN OF SOME WARMING. WITH THE LACK OF THE CURRENT COLD AIR TO
HELP OUT ON THERMAL SUPPORT AND THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT ONE...THE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LESS. THE WIND PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE TYPICAL
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TUESDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
NOT BEING REAL STRONG. VERY MODEST COOLING WILL RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WE GO TO DRY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MASSIVE UPPER RIDGING.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH THIS RIDGING. FRIDAY THEN
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS A PACIFIC WAVE CLIMBS ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AND
APPROACHES. WILL FOR NOW GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT THE SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO LACK VERY MUCH MOISTURE
AND WILL BE MILD...EVEN IF THE STRONGER EC TURNS OUT. WE MIGHT HAVE
TO EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE A FEW FEBRUARY RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MAINLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 00Z. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN GREATER EARNEST ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I29
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...AVERAGING 15 TO 30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SPREADING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL DROP TO IFR AND LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ039-040-056.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-
     090.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 122124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALONE AS NEW GRIDS SHOW THE 20
BELOW TO 30 DEGREE BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES STILL IN THE SAME AREA
EAST OF I 29. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT ARE LOW TEMPERATURES. MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW FLUFF TO CONTEND WITH...
THEREFORE EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES LOOK TOO MILD. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST
AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT OVERNIGHT. BUT EVENTUALLY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB UPWARD...FIRST IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THEN FINALLY EAST OF I 29 TOWARD MORNING. IN GREGORY
COUNTY HOWEVER...ACTUALLY WENT THE OPPOSITE AND TRENDED WARMER THEN
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR LOWS AS THEIR CLOUD COVER MAY NOT TOTALLY
ERODE. AND THEIR WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN QUITE EARLY
TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. FIRST OF ALL...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THESE CHANCES THEN DRIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO A DUSTING OR LESS. BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE THOSE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME INSTEAD CHOOSING TO FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL HIT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY GENERAL SNOW WITH THE CONCENTRATION ON MOST MODELS BEING
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL AND
MORE SO THE NAM SHOW A PRECIPITATION AXIS FURTHER SOUTH AND FEEL AS
DO SOME OTHERS THAT THEY ARE OUTLIERS ON THIS. IN ANY EVENT GIVEN
THAT THE AIR WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE FROM H7 ON UP...THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT COPIOUS...AND THE PRESENCE OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
WAA...THE SNOW COULD BE BANDED GIVEN THE DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT
WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TRANSITIONING TO MUCH LIGHTER OVER
A SHORT DISTANCE. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEL VARIATIONS IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME WHERE THE BEST NARROW SNOW BAND/S WOULD BE SO
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH THE MORE GENERAL IDEA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
NORTHEAST HALF AND 1 TO 3 SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY QUESTION ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS IN THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MOST OF
THE WARM AIR UPSTAIRS AND MOST OTHER MODELS COOLER. AFTER LOADING A
BLEND ON MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GETTING ONLY A LITTLE WARM WEDGE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY EVENING...DECIDED TO KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION SNOW...ALLOWING FOR COOLING IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
IN THAT CHANCE POP AREA.

WINDS WILL BE STIFF WITH THE START OF THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT BLOWING
SNOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO THREATEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE START THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF FROM THE WEST LATE.
AFTER COORDINATION...AND SINCE WINDS ARE NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR
BLIZZARD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA
WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS...BASICALLY FROM NORTH OF SIOUX
FALLS INTO SOUTHWEST MN.

TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE WARMING SLOWLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS EARLY. READINGS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHWEST BE THE END OF THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER SHOULD
END STEADILY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
LAG A LITTLE WITH FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT....OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL WEAKEN
AND DIE...WITH SUNDAY BEING WARMER BUT NOT WARMING...IF THAT MAKES
SENSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY WAVE AND THE
RETURN OF SOME WARMING. WITH THE LACK OF THE CURRENT COLD AIR TO
HELP OUT ON THERMAL SUPPORT AND THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT ONE...THE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LESS. THE WIND PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE TYPICAL
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TUESDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
NOT BEING REAL STRONG. VERY MODEST COOLING WILL RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WE GO TO DRY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MASSIVE UPPER RIDGING.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH THIS RIDGING. FRIDAY THEN
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS A PACIFIC WAVE CLIMBS ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AND
APPROACHES. WILL FOR NOW GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT THE SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO LACK VERY MUCH MOISTURE
AND WILL BE MILD...EVEN IF THE STRONGER EC TURNS OUT. WE MIGHT HAVE
TO EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE A FEW FEBRUARY RAIN SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS
CLOSE TO 2000 FOOT AGL THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD KHON. NOT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY REACH KHON AS THE
DRY AIR COULD EVAPORATE IT BEFORE IT REACHES KHON. BUT WANTED TO
HEDGE IT IN THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
HEADS UP. THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR STRATUS NEAR KSUX WHICH COULD
IMPACT THAT SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
MOVING BACK INTO KHON BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ039-040-056.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 121744
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1144 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS
CLOSE TO 2000 FOOT AGL THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD
TOWARD KHON. NOT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY REACH KHON AS THE
DRY AIR COULD EVAPORATE IT BEFORE IT REACHES KHON. BUT WANTED TO
HEDGE IT IN THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
HEADS UP. THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR STRATUS NEAR KSUX WHICH COULD
IMPACT THAT SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
MOVING BACK INTO KHON BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 121120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
520 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER LATE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 121120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
520 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER LATE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 121120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
520 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER LATE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 120934
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD AHEAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD. A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...FROM IFR TO VFR BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. WOULD EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF AFTERNOON STRATO-CU...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 120931
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER MAY HANG UP A BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY RIGHT
NOW...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...WITH A FEW 20S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

BY TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL HAVE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ION SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST...WHILE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DURING
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WILL HAVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...THOUGH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...RUNNING FROM AROUND
15:1 TO 20:1...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR 5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
TIMES...SO MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM DAYTIME
HIGHS...MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR A WHILE AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFERING ON THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...BUT ALL TREND GENERALLY TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME 40S THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN
SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING MAY BE REALIZED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD AHEAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD. A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...FROM IFR TO VFR BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. WOULD EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF AFTERNOON STRATO-CU...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ080-081-089-090.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 120433
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. THE SNOW IS ALIGNED VERY WELL WITH THE 750-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS LAYER...AND THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF NORTHWEST IA...INSTEAD OF SOUTH
TOWARD SIOUX CITY. THEREFORE MAY HAVE TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SIOUX CITY AND YANKTON LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
HOWEVER THEY ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES FROM NEAR
BROOKINGS OVER TO THE MARSHALL MN VICINITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
ON THE HIRES MODELS THAT CLEARING COULD OCCUR OVER THOSE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS THE TEMPERATURES STILL
MAY NOT PLUMMET TOO BAD.

THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE DEFINITELY ADVECTS IN FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. BUT IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  LEADING WAVE IS
FIGHTING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THE GFS/ECMWF REMAINING THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND SOLUTIONS CONVERGING TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.  AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE AROUND
14-16:1. LIFT IS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET CENTERED
ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM WILL BE.
THE GFS KEEPS 925 HPA TEMPS BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS
THINGS TO 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE ZERO BY 00Z TUESDAY.  TOOK THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FRO NOW...AND STUCK WITH CONSENSUS
NUMBERS.  MODELS SHOW A VOLATILE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT
OF WARMING.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT COOLER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST.  WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN 925 HPA
MIXOUT...HAVE COOLED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN THE EAST...IT IS POSSIBLE NUMBERS MAY BE CLOSER TO CONS
RAW/ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES OFF
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD AHEAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD. A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...FROM IFR TO VFR BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
SCATTER OUT AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. WOULD EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF AFTERNOON STRATO-CU...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.


.&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 112329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
529 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. THE SNOW IS ALIGNED VERY WELL WITH THE 750-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS LAYER...AND THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF NORTHWEST IA...INSTEAD OF SOUTH
TOWARD SIOUX CITY. THEREFORE MAY HAVE TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SIOUX CITY AND YANKTON LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
HOWEVER THEY ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES FROM NEAR
BROOKINGS OVER TO THE MARSHALL MN VICINITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
ON THE HIRES MODELS THAT CLEARING COULD OCCUR OVER THOSE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS THE TEMPERATURES STILL
MAY NOT PLUMMET TOO BAD.

THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE DEFINITELY ADVECTS IN FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. BUT IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  LEADING WAVE IS
FIGHTING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THE GFS/ECMWF REMAINING THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND SOLUTIONS CONVERGING TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.  AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE AROUND
14-16:1. LIFT IS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET CENTERED
ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM WILL BE.
THE GFS KEEPS 925 HPA TEMPS BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS
THINGS TO 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE ZERO BY 00Z TUESDAY.  TOOK THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FRO NOW...AND STUCK WITH CONSENSUS
NUMBERS.  MODELS SHOW A VOLATILE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT
OF WARMING.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT COOLER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST.  WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN 925 HPA
MIXOUT...HAVE COOLED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN THE EAST...IT IS POSSIBLE NUMBERS MAY BE CLOSER TO CONS
RAW/ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES OFF
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOW IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS WILL BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF STRATUS ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.

CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

 &&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 112329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
529 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. THE SNOW IS ALIGNED VERY WELL WITH THE 750-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS LAYER...AND THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF NORTHWEST IA...INSTEAD OF SOUTH
TOWARD SIOUX CITY. THEREFORE MAY HAVE TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SIOUX CITY AND YANKTON LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
HOWEVER THEY ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES FROM NEAR
BROOKINGS OVER TO THE MARSHALL MN VICINITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
ON THE HIRES MODELS THAT CLEARING COULD OCCUR OVER THOSE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS THE TEMPERATURES STILL
MAY NOT PLUMMET TOO BAD.

THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE DEFINITELY ADVECTS IN FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. BUT IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  LEADING WAVE IS
FIGHTING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THE GFS/ECMWF REMAINING THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND SOLUTIONS CONVERGING TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.  AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE AROUND
14-16:1. LIFT IS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET CENTERED
ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM WILL BE.
THE GFS KEEPS 925 HPA TEMPS BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS
THINGS TO 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE ZERO BY 00Z TUESDAY.  TOOK THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FRO NOW...AND STUCK WITH CONSENSUS
NUMBERS.  MODELS SHOW A VOLATILE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT
OF WARMING.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT COOLER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST.  WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN 925 HPA
MIXOUT...HAVE COOLED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN THE EAST...IT IS POSSIBLE NUMBERS MAY BE CLOSER TO CONS
RAW/ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES OFF
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOW IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS WILL BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF STRATUS ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.

CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

 &&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 112140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. THE SNOW IS ALIGNED VERY WELL WITH THE 750-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS LAYER...AND THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF NORTHWEST IA...INSTEAD OF SOUTH
TOWARD SIOUX CITY. THEREFORE MAY HAVE TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SIOUX CITY AND YANKTON LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
HOWEVER THEY ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES FROM NEAR
BROOKINGS OVER TO THE MARSHALL MN VICINITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
ON THE HIRES MODELS THAT CLEARING COULD OCCUR OVER THOSE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS THE TEMPERATURES STILL
MAY NOT PLUMMET TOO BAD.

THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE DEFINITELY ADVECTS IN FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH THE DAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. BUT IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  LEADING WAVE IS
FIGHTING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THE GFS/ECMWF REMAINING THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND SOLUTIONS CONVERGING TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.  AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE AROUND
14-16:1. LIFT IS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET CENTERED
ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM WILL BE.
THE GFS KEEPS 925 HPA TEMPS BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS
THINGS TO 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE ZERO BY 00Z TUESDAY.  TOOK THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FRO NOW...AND STUCK WITH CONSENSUS
NUMBERS.  MODELS SHOW A VOLATILE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMOUNT
OF WARMING.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT COOLER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST.  WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN 925 HPA
MIXOUT...HAVE COOLED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.  IF THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN THE EAST...IT IS POSSIBLE NUMBERS MAY BE CLOSER TO CONS
RAW/ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES OFF
HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS WHEN SNOW WILL START AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIRES MODELS AND SATURATION PROFILES ARE
STILL SHOWING SNOW TO WORK ITS WAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND TIMED THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOWFALL
IN THE TAF SITES BASED ON THE SATURATION OF THE 850-700MB LAYER...
WHICH BY THE WAY IS CURRENTLY STILL FAIRLY DRY. BUT WHEN THE
SNOWFALL DOES START...AM EXPECTING IFR VISIBILITIES BASED ON WHAT
IS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA...AND THAT WILL END THE
SNOWFALL BUT LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER. DRIER AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTHWARD VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 111738
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1138 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

OVERALL THE LARGE TREND OF THE FORECAST STILL IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW IS
LINED UP ALONG A BAND OF 750-700MB FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE
PRIMARY WAVE EXITING THIS EVENING VIA OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE
PROBLEM INITIALLY IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THEREFORE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE SNOWFALL IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. BUT IT WILL SATURATE UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
EVENTUALLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE SNOW FORECAST AND AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS GOOD AFTER EXAMINING THE
12Z NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A TIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AS A RESULT...INGREDIENTS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT LATER MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEXT
LIFT FORCING BOOST COURTESY OF A WAVE/STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK NOTED
RIDING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ON EVENING
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  WITH EVENT YESTERDAY...WAVE WAS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL DIVE
FROM WATER VAPOR DEFINED LOCATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 09Z...TO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z. PROGRESS OF A NICE EXIT REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY LATE MORNING THROUGH VERY
EARLY EVENING.  AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES ARE LESS THAN INSPIRING TO
GET HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LAYER RESIDING SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND LIFT LARGELY CENTERED IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
LAYER. IF COULD GET SOME HIGHER LEVEL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...THEN POTENTIAL TO TAP A LITTLE OF THE 600-500 HPA INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE HIGHER FRONTAL SURFACE...BUT BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AGAIN
TO LIMIT EFFICIENCY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS IN HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...
BOTH LOWER AND HIGH RESOLUTION...IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL PERIOD. CONCERN AGAIN THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAVORED TOO
LOW IN THE PROFILE AND BIASED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...BUT WITH PRE EXISTING DRY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL AROUND OR A BIT MORE THAN AN
INCH JUST SOUTH OF KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB. POTENTIAL THAT LOWER BRULE
AREAS COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF LIQUID EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMING NEAR
SURFACE TO JUST ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING...AND
HAVE ACCELERATED THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE 03Z-05Z RANGE. AN EARLIER EXIT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO
CHILL AGAIN. WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTING SOUTHWARD
AS ARCTIC RIDGE DROPS IN BEHIND EXITING SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
BAND OF SHALLOW 950-900 HPA FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD SURGE...AND WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO A VERY DENDRITIC
RANGE...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OR FLURRIES AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD...DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLE SIN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF
CENTRAL SD MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT AS THE AVERAGE 925MB TEMPERATURES IS RUNNING ABOUT -15 TO
-20 DEGREES C...WHICH MAY MAKE GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VERY DIFFICULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AND WILL SHOOT FOR AROUND -15 DEGREES
F IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR SILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY SO
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST AND TO AROUND 20 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AMOUNTS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DIG A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST SOME 4 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY BUT IF THE WAVE COMES IN A LITTLE
WEAKER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE SO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS DRIER REGIME WILL COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A VERY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AIMING FOR LOWS
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A FAIRLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS SO ANY UNFORECAST RIPPLE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SHIFT THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OR THE WARMER AIR
NORTH BRINGING SOME POTENTIALLY BIG CHANGES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS WHEN SNOW WILL START AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HIRES MODELS AND SATURATION PROFILES ARE
STILL SHOWING SNOW TO WORK ITS WAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND TIMED THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOWFALL
IN THE TAF SITES BASED ON THE SATURATION OF THE 850-700MB LAYER...
WHICH BY THE WAY IS CURRENTLY STILL FAIRLY DRY. BUT WHEN THE
SNOWFALL DOES START...AM EXPECTING IFR VISIBILITIES BASED ON WHAT
IS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA...AND THAT WILL END THE
SNOWFALL BUT LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER. DRIER AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTHWARD VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 111643
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

OVERALL THE LARGE TREND OF THE FORECAST STILL IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW IS
LINED UP ALONG A BAND OF 750-700MB FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE
PRIMARY WAVE EXITING THIS EVENING VIA OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE
PROBLEM INITIALLY IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THEREFORE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE SNOWFALL IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. BUT IT WILL SATURATE UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
EVENTUALLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE SNOW FORECAST AND AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS GOOD AFTER EXAMINING THE
12Z NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A TIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AS A RESULT...INGREDIENTS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT LATER MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEXT
LIFT FORCING BOOST COURTESY OF A WAVE/STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK NOTED
RIDING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ON EVENING
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  WITH EVENT YESTERDAY...WAVE WAS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL DIVE
FROM WATER VAPOR DEFINED LOCATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 09Z...TO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z. PROGRESS OF A NICE EXIT REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY LATE MORNING THROUGH VERY
EARLY EVENING.  AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES ARE LESS THAN INSPIRING TO
GET HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LAYER RESIDING SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND LIFT LARGELY CENTERED IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
LAYER. IF COULD GET SOME HIGHER LEVEL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...THEN POTENTIAL TO TAP A LITTLE OF THE 600-500 HPA INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE HIGHER FRONTAL SURFACE...BUT BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AGAIN
TO LIMIT EFFICIENCY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS IN HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...
BOTH LOWER AND HIGH RESOLUTION...IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL PERIOD. CONCERN AGAIN THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAVORED TOO
LOW IN THE PROFILE AND BIASED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...BUT WITH PRE EXISTING DRY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL AROUND OR A BIT MORE THAN AN
INCH JUST SOUTH OF KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB. POTENTIAL THAT LOWER BRULE
AREAS COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF LIQUID EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMING NEAR
SURFACE TO JUST ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING...AND
HAVE ACCELERATED THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE 03Z-05Z RANGE. AN EARLIER EXIT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO
CHILL AGAIN. WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTING SOUTHWARD
AS ARCTIC RIDGE DROPS IN BEHIND EXITING SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
BAND OF SHALLOW 950-900 HPA FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD SURGE...AND WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO A VERY DENDRITIC
RANGE...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OR FLURRIES AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD...DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLE SIN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF
CENTRAL SD MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT AS THE AVERAGE 925MB TEMPERATURES IS RUNNING ABOUT -15 TO
-20 DEGREES C...WHICH MAY MAKE GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VERY DIFFICULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AND WILL SHOOT FOR AROUND -15 DEGREES
F IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR SILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY SO
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST AND TO AROUND 20 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AMOUNTS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DIG A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST SOME 4 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY BUT IF THE WAVE COMES IN A LITTLE
WEAKER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE SO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS DRIER REGIME WILL COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A VERY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AIMING FOR LOWS
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A FAIRLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS SO ANY UNFORECAST RIPPLE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SHIFT THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OR THE WARMER AIR
NORTH BRINGING SOME POTENTIALLY BIG CHANGES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF THOSE WITHIN MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL
WHICH SHOULD DIP AT TIMES INTO UPPER LIFR...MATCHED BY BRIEF
FORAYS INTO VLIFR VISIBILITIES. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END
DURING THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY POST 06Z AS SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF
DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS AS WELL OVER A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES PAST. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR FOR KHON/KFSD BY LATE
NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 111148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A TIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AS A RESULT...INGREDIENTS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT LATER MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEXT
LIFT FORCING BOOST COURTESY OF A WAVE/STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK NOTED
RIDING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ON EVENING
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  WITH EVENT YESTERDAY...WAVE WAS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL DIVE
FROM WATER VAPOR DEFINED LOCATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 09Z...TO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z. PROGRESS OF A NICE EXIT REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY LATE MORNING THROUGH VERY
EARLY EVENING.  AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES ARE LESS THAN INSPIRING TO
GET HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LAYER RESIDING SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND LIFT LARGELY CENTERED IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
LAYER. IF COULD GET SOME HIGHER LEVEL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...THEN POTENTIAL TO TAP A LITTLE OF THE 600-500 HPA INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE HIGHER FRONTAL SURFACE...BUT BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AGAIN
TO LIMIT EFFICIENCY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS IN HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...
BOTH LOWER AND HIGH RESOLUTION...IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL PERIOD. CONCERN AGAIN THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAVORED TOO
LOW IN THE PROFILE AND BIASED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...BUT WITH PRE EXISTING DRY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL AROUND OR A BIT MORE THAN AN
INCH JUST SOUTH OF KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB. POTENTIAL THAT LOWER BRULE
AREAS COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF LIQUID EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMING NEAR
SURFACE TO JUST ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING...AND
HAVE ACCELERATED THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE 03Z-05Z RANGE. AN EARLIER EXIT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO
CHILL AGAIN. WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTING SOUTHWARD
AS ARCTIC RIDGE DROPS IN BEHIND EXITING SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
BAND OF SHALLOW 950-900 HPA FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD SURGE...AND WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO A VERY DENDRITIC
RANGE...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OR FLURRIES AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD...DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLE SIN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF
CENTRAL SD MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT AS THE AVERAGE 925MB TEMPERATURES IS RUNNING ABOUT -15 TO
-20 DEGREES C...WHICH MAY MAKE GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VERY DIFFICULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AND WILL SHOOT FOR AROUND -15 DEGREES
F IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR SILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY SO
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST AND TO AROUND 20 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AMOUNTS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DIG A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST SOME 4 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY BUT IF THE WAVE COMES IN A LITTLE
WEAKER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE SO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS DRIER REGIME WILL COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A VERY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AIMING FOR LOWS
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A FAIRLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS SO ANY UNFORECAST RIPPLE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SHIFT THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OR THE WARMER AIR
NORTH BRINGING SOME POTENTIALLY BIG CHANGES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF THOSE WITHIN MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL
WHICH SHOULD DIP AT TIMES INTO UPPER LIFR...MATCHED BY BRIEF
FORAYS INTO VLIFR VISIBILITIES. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END
DURING THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY POST 06Z AS SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF
DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS AS WELL OVER A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES PAST. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR FOR KHON/KFSD BY LATE
NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 111148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A TIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AS A RESULT...INGREDIENTS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT LATER MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEXT
LIFT FORCING BOOST COURTESY OF A WAVE/STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK NOTED
RIDING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ON EVENING
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  WITH EVENT YESTERDAY...WAVE WAS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL DIVE
FROM WATER VAPOR DEFINED LOCATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 09Z...TO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z. PROGRESS OF A NICE EXIT REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY LATE MORNING THROUGH VERY
EARLY EVENING.  AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES ARE LESS THAN INSPIRING TO
GET HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LAYER RESIDING SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND LIFT LARGELY CENTERED IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
LAYER. IF COULD GET SOME HIGHER LEVEL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...THEN POTENTIAL TO TAP A LITTLE OF THE 600-500 HPA INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE HIGHER FRONTAL SURFACE...BUT BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AGAIN
TO LIMIT EFFICIENCY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS IN HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...
BOTH LOWER AND HIGH RESOLUTION...IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL PERIOD. CONCERN AGAIN THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAVORED TOO
LOW IN THE PROFILE AND BIASED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...BUT WITH PRE EXISTING DRY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL AROUND OR A BIT MORE THAN AN
INCH JUST SOUTH OF KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB. POTENTIAL THAT LOWER BRULE
AREAS COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF LIQUID EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMING NEAR
SURFACE TO JUST ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING...AND
HAVE ACCELERATED THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE 03Z-05Z RANGE. AN EARLIER EXIT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO
CHILL AGAIN. WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTING SOUTHWARD
AS ARCTIC RIDGE DROPS IN BEHIND EXITING SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
BAND OF SHALLOW 950-900 HPA FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD SURGE...AND WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO A VERY DENDRITIC
RANGE...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OR FLURRIES AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD...DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLE SIN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF
CENTRAL SD MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT AS THE AVERAGE 925MB TEMPERATURES IS RUNNING ABOUT -15 TO
-20 DEGREES C...WHICH MAY MAKE GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VERY DIFFICULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AND WILL SHOOT FOR AROUND -15 DEGREES
F IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR SILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY SO
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST AND TO AROUND 20 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AMOUNTS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DIG A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST SOME 4 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY BUT IF THE WAVE COMES IN A LITTLE
WEAKER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE SO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS DRIER REGIME WILL COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A VERY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AIMING FOR LOWS
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A FAIRLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS SO ANY UNFORECAST RIPPLE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SHIFT THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OR THE WARMER AIR
NORTH BRINGING SOME POTENTIALLY BIG CHANGES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF THOSE WITHIN MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL
WHICH SHOULD DIP AT TIMES INTO UPPER LIFR...MATCHED BY BRIEF
FORAYS INTO VLIFR VISIBILITIES. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END
DURING THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY POST 06Z AS SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF
DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS AS WELL OVER A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES PAST. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR FOR KHON/KFSD BY LATE
NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 110959
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A TIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AS A RESULT...INGREDIENTS AGAIN IN PLACE FOR A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT LATER MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEXT
LIFT FORCING BOOST COURTESY OF A WAVE/STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK NOTED
RIDING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ON EVENING
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA.  WITH EVENT YESTERDAY...WAVE WAS
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL DIVE
FROM WATER VAPOR DEFINED LOCATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AT 09Z...TO
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z. PROGRESS OF A NICE EXIT REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY LATE MORNING THROUGH VERY
EARLY EVENING.  AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES ARE LESS THAN INSPIRING TO
GET HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LAYER RESIDING SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND LIFT LARGELY CENTERED IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
LAYER. IF COULD GET SOME HIGHER LEVEL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...THEN POTENTIAL TO TAP A LITTLE OF THE 600-500 HPA INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE HIGHER FRONTAL SURFACE...BUT BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AGAIN
TO LIMIT EFFICIENCY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS IN HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...
BOTH LOWER AND HIGH RESOLUTION...IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL PERIOD. CONCERN AGAIN THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAVORED TOO
LOW IN THE PROFILE AND BIASED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...BUT WITH PRE EXISTING DRY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY TO
IDEA OF KEEPING MAIN AXIS OF SNOWFALL AROUND OR A BIT MORE THAN AN
INCH JUST SOUTH OF KHON TO KFSD TO KSLB. POTENTIAL THAT LOWER BRULE
AREAS COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF LIQUID EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARMING NEAR
SURFACE TO JUST ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE RAPIDLY BY MID EVENING...AND
HAVE ACCELERATED THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE 03Z-05Z RANGE. AN EARLIER EXIT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WINDOW
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO
CHILL AGAIN. WILL GET A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTING SOUTHWARD
AS ARCTIC RIDGE DROPS IN BEHIND EXITING SURFACE WAVE TO THE SOUTH.
BAND OF SHALLOW 950-900 HPA FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD SURGE...AND WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO A VERY DENDRITIC
RANGE...MAY SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OR FLURRIES AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY DAYBREAK IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD...DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLE SIN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF
CENTRAL SD MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT AS THE AVERAGE 925MB TEMPERATURES IS RUNNING ABOUT -15 TO
-20 DEGREES C...WHICH MAY MAKE GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VERY DIFFICULT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AND WILL SHOOT FOR AROUND -15 DEGREES
F IN THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR SILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY SO
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST AND TO AROUND 20 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AMOUNTS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DIG A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST SOME 4 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY BUT IF THE WAVE COMES IN A LITTLE
WEAKER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS WAVE SO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH
THIS DRIER REGIME WILL COME MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH A VERY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW AIMING FOR LOWS
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A FAIRLY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS SO ANY UNFORECAST RIPPLE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SHIFT THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OR THE WARMER AIR
NORTH BRINGING SOME POTENTIALLY BIG CHANGES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TEMPORARY RISE TO VFR...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
LOWER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH DAYBREAK...HOWEVER MORE
STEADY SNOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH SNOW...AND IT COULD
DROP VISIBILITY 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES.

IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 110428
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

00Z DATA HAS SPED UP THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS 300MB JET
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS ALL
SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVING THE WAVE SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS SHOWED INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION
PEAKING BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH A SLIGHT THERMAL NOSE FORMING ON THE
NAM SOLN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEALTHY
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 850:750 MB LAYER...SO AM ANTICIPATING
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER NARROW BAND AROUND MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LOW- LVL CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

THAT SAID...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED WITH WEDNESDAYS SNOW...HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF ARRIVAL FASTER INTO THE CWA. I HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP POPS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG MAIN TRACK OF THE
WAVE. MODEL QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING...WITH
AN AVERAGE QPF AROUND 0.10 CUTTING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WOULD
BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THIS BAND WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING
OR SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS
REBUILD FROM WEST TO EAST AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOVERS NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. EXPECT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE EXTREME EAST...TO THE LOWER
OR MID 20S IN THE EXTREME WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON THURSDAY ON A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS TODAYS SYSTEM. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AREA LATE
MORNING AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DID INCREASE
POPS TO HIGH CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS
THROUGH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

HAVE CONTINUED TO RAISE POPS FOR THE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WHERE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG ON TO
DYNAMICALLY...ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOW AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS CONCENTRATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME CHANCES POPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS DENDRITIC LAYER DEEPENS NEAR THE SURFACE.  AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER
DEEPENS...ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  925 HPA TEMPS
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY
OR FALL AS COOLER AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST KEEPING CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WARMER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...AND
GIVEN THE STRENGTH HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED LIFT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA LOWER DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS WAVE WILL BE FIGHTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR.
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE ECMWF AND GEM.

WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS 925
HPA TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF SUGGESTS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
HOLDING ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
TO SEE WHICH PATTERN WILL WIN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TEMPORARY RISE TO VFR...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
LOWER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH DAYBREAK...HOWEVER MORE
STEADY SNOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH SNOW...AND IT COULD
DROP VISIBILITY 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES.

IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN MVFR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 110348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
948 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

00Z DATA HAS SPED UP THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS 300MB JET
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS ALL
SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVING THE WAVE SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS SHOWED INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION
PEAKING BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH A SLIGHT THERMAL NOSE FORMING ON THE
NAM SOLN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEALTHY
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 850:750 MB LAYER...SO AM ANTICIPATING
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER NARROW BAND AROUND MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LOW- LVL CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

THAT SAID...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED WITH WEDNESDAYS SNOW...HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF ARRIVAL FASTER INTO THE CWA. I HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP POPS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG MAIN TRACK OF THE
WAVE. MODEL QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING...WITH
AN AVERAGE QPF AROUND 0.10 CUTTING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WOULD
BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THIS BAND WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING
OR SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS
REBUILD FROM WEST TO EAST AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOVERS NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. EXPECT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE EXTREME EAST...TO THE LOWER
OR MID 20S IN THE EXTREME WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON THURSDAY ON A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS TODAYS SYSTEM. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AREA LATE
MORNING AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DID INCREASE
POPS TO HIGH CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS
THROUGH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

HAVE CONTINUED TO RAISE POPS FOR THE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WHERE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG ON TO
DYNAMICALLY...ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOW AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS CONCENTRATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME CHANCES POPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS DENDRITIC LAYER DEEPENS NEAR THE SURFACE.  AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER
DEEPENS...ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  925 HPA TEMPS
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY
OR FALL AS COOLER AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST KEEPING CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WARMER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...AND
GIVEN THE STRENGTH HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED LIFT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA LOWER DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS WAVE WILL BE FIGHTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR.
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE ECMWF AND GEM.

WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS 925
HPA TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF SUGGESTS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
HOLDING ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
TO SEE WHICH PATTERN WILL WIN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS WILL REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. A BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR FSD...AS
THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT STRETCHES OF PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR CATEGORIES. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KHON FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH KSUX REMAINING ON
THE EDGE OF ANY LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH MORNING.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TERMINALS BY MID-LATE
MORNING THURSDAY. MAY SEE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS ONLY SEEING
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 110348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
948 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

00Z DATA HAS SPED UP THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS 300MB JET
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS ALL
SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVING THE WAVE SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS SHOWED INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION
PEAKING BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH A SLIGHT THERMAL NOSE FORMING ON THE
NAM SOLN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEALTHY
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 850:750 MB LAYER...SO AM ANTICIPATING
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER NARROW BAND AROUND MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LOW- LVL CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

THAT SAID...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED WITH WEDNESDAYS SNOW...HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF ARRIVAL FASTER INTO THE CWA. I HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP POPS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG MAIN TRACK OF THE
WAVE. MODEL QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING...WITH
AN AVERAGE QPF AROUND 0.10 CUTTING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WOULD
BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THIS BAND WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING
OR SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS
REBUILD FROM WEST TO EAST AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOVERS NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. EXPECT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE EXTREME EAST...TO THE LOWER
OR MID 20S IN THE EXTREME WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON THURSDAY ON A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS TODAYS SYSTEM. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY AREA LATE
MORNING AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DID INCREASE
POPS TO HIGH CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS
THROUGH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

HAVE CONTINUED TO RAISE POPS FOR THE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WHERE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG ON TO
DYNAMICALLY...ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOW AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS CONCENTRATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME CHANCES POPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS DENDRITIC LAYER DEEPENS NEAR THE SURFACE.  AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER
DEEPENS...ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  925 HPA TEMPS
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY
OR FALL AS COOLER AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST KEEPING CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WARMER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...AND
GIVEN THE STRENGTH HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED LIFT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA LOWER DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS WAVE WILL BE FIGHTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR.
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE ECMWF AND GEM.

WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS 925
HPA TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF SUGGESTS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
HOLDING ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
TO SEE WHICH PATTERN WILL WIN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS WILL REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. A BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR FSD...AS
THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT STRETCHES OF PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR CATEGORIES. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KHON FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH KSUX REMAINING ON
THE EDGE OF ANY LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH MORNING.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TERMINALS BY MID-LATE
MORNING THURSDAY. MAY SEE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS ONLY SEEING
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





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