Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KFSD 291145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE...AS A SUBTLE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH OF AIR
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IN FACT...HAVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATING AREAS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...HOWEVER THE FURTHER YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST...IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES. BECAUSE OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE THE WARMEST HIGHS TODAY
AROUND MARSHALL MN WHO SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S AFTER ADDING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE READINGS. CONVERSELY...
CONTINUED A TREND OF GOING WITH CHILLY RAW MODEL VALUES ELSEWHERE
WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...COOLING THINGS OFF TO THE UPPER
40S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MOVES INTO
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION FROM I 90 SOUTHWARD. THE ONE THING TO WATCH FOR HOWEVER IS
THE 850-700MB STREAMLINES ARE STILL DECIDEDLY USHERING IN A DRY FETCH
OF AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ALL NIGHT. NOTICED THAT THE 06Z NAM HAS
REVERTED TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR EVEN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IN ADDITION...THE NMM IS FAVORING A 06Z NAM
SOLUTION AND THE ARW IS FURTHER SOUTH YET. THEREFORE IT COULD TAKE A
LONG TIME FOR THE RAINFALL TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES EDGING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE A
SHARP POP GRADIENT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MEASURABLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MN. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES AND A BIT NORTH OF THERE WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...TRENDED LOWS TOWARD RAW MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES WHICH WERE
MORE MILD THEN OTHER READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MAIN SYSTEM TO IMPACT WEATHER IN THE LONGER RANGE IS FRONT LOADED
THIS WEEKEND...AS FINAL OF THREE CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS. UPPER LOW TRACK THIS TIME IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS...GENERALLY VARYING FROM MOST NORTH SOLUTION IN
ECMWF TAKING CENTER NEAR I-80...WHILE GFS IS MOST SOUTHERN WITH CORE
OF FEATURE CLOSER TO I-70.  IN GENERAL...MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE
SOLID ON BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90...
AND LIMITING STREAMLINES 850-700 HPA INDICATE MORE THAN A BIT OF A
STRUGGLE TO GET PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO HIGHWAY 14 /HURON - MARSHALL/.
GENERAL TREND IN EARLIER FORECAST MAINTAINED...JUST A BIT SHARPER ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A ROGUE RUMBLE
INTO THE KSUX/KSLB AREAS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...BUT
CHANCE IS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD TO MENTION. SAFE TO SAY THAT
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN PLEASANT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S DURING PRECIP. WARMEST READINGS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER FROM KHON TO KMML...LAST TO SEE RAIN IF AT ALL...AND LIKELY
CLOSE TO 900 HPA MIXING VALUES IN MID 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ADVECTIONS QUICKLY NEUTRALIZE ANY BETTER CHANCES
FOR ADDED PRECIPITATION BY NIGHTS END. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SURFACE...HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD FOCUS TO DEFORMATION BAND. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY CLOSER TO U.S. HIGHWAY 20...BUT ANY
LINGERING FORCING IS OVER VERY EARLY. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
VARYING FROM MORE THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF AN ACADEMY TO STORM LAKE
LINE...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOWARD HIGHWAY 14.

LIKELY TO BE A FLAT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ON SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. KEPT AWAY FROM
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIXED VALUES DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

WELL-DESERVED DRYING AND WARMING ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
TROUGH CONGEALS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL BE DEALING WITH RESIDUAL COOLER POOL OF AIR IN MID
LEVELS ON MONDAY...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT IDEA OF PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER.

GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATED A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH ACTS TO PULL A BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF IS ALMOST A DAY LATER AND MUCH WEAKER
WITH PUSH AS WELL AS HAVING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH TO
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. DAY TO DAY LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROGS ARE AS
MUCH AS 4-6C DIFFERENT...EC BEING COOLER TUESDAY...AND GFS COOLER
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THE RECENT WETNESS WOULD SUGGEST STAYING AWAY
FROM THE WARMEST SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY DID NOT ALTER TEMPS MUCH
FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE WHICH FELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE POTENTIAL
RANGE EACH DAY. END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE KHON TAF SITE IS A QUESTION MARK...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS AND A
PATCH OF CLEARING. SO ITS POSSIBLE THEY COULD BE IN AND OUT
BETWEEN VFR AND LOWER END MVFR. BY MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO KHON FROM THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY SCOUR THEM OUT INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM THE NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE KFSD AND KSUX WILL
PRIMARILY FAVOR AN MVFR CEILING TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME UPPER END IFR MIXED IN AT TIMES EARLY TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ESPECIALLY AT
KSUX...LIKELY PRODUCING RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290908
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE...AS A SUBTLE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH OF AIR
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IN FACT...HAVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATING AREAS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...HOWEVER THE FURTHER YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST...IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES. BECAUSE OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE THE WARMEST HIGHS TODAY
AROUND MARSHALL MN WHO SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S AFTER ADDING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE READINGS. CONVERSELY...
CONTINUED A TREND OF GOING WITH CHILLY RAW MODEL VALUES ELSEWHERE
WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...COOLING THINGS OFF TO THE UPPER
40S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MOVES INTO
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION FROM I 90 SOUTHWARD. THE ONE THING TO WATCH FOR HOWEVER IS
THE 850-700MB STREAMLINES ARE STILL DECIDEDLY USHERING IN A DRY FETCH
OF AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ALL NIGHT. NOTICED THAT THE 06Z NAM HAS
REVERTED TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR EVEN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IN ADDITION...THE NMM IS FAVORING A 06Z NAM
SOLUTION AND THE ARW IS FURTHER SOUTH YET. THEREFORE IT COULD TAKE A
LONG TIME FOR THE RAINFALL TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES EDGING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE A
SHARP POP GRADIENT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MEASURABLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MN. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES AND A BIT NORTH OF THERE WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...TRENDED LOWS TOWARD RAW MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES WHICH WERE
MORE MILD THEN OTHER READINGS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MAIN SYSTEM TO IMPACT WEATHER IN THE LONGER RANGE IS FRONT LOADED
THIS WEEKEND...AS FINAL OF THREE CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS. UPPER LOW TRACK THIS TIME IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS...GENERALLY VARYING FROM MOST NORTH SOLUTION IN
ECMWF TAKING CENTER NEAR I-80...WHILE GFS IS MOST SOUTHERN WITH CORE
OF FEATURE CLOSER TO I-70.  IN GENERAL...MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE
SOLID ON BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90...
AND LIMITING STREAMLINES 850-700 HPA INDICATE MORE THAN A BIT OF A
STRUGGLE TO GET PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO HIGHWAY 14 /HURON - MARSHALL/.
GENERAL TREND IN EARLIER FORECAST MAINTAINED...JUST A BIT SHARPER ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A ROGUE RUMBLE
INTO THE KSUX/KSLB AREAS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...BUT
CHANCE IS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD TO MENTION. SAFE TO SAY THAT
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN PLEASANT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S DURING PRECIP. WARMEST READINGS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER FROM KHON TO KMML...LAST TO SEE RAIN IF AT ALL...AND LIKELY
CLOSE TO 900 HPA MIXING VALUES IN MID 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ADVECTIONS QUICKLY NEUTRALIZE ANY BETTER CHANCES
FOR ADDED PRECIPITATION BY NIGHTS END. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SURFACE...HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD FOCUS TO DEFORMATION BAND. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY CLOSER TO U.S. HIGHWAY 20...BUT ANY
LINGERING FORCING IS OVER VERY EARLY. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
VARYING FROM MORE THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF AN ACADEMY TO STORM LAKE
LINE...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOWARD HIGHWAY 14.

LIKELY TO BE A FLAT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ON SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. KEPT AWAY FROM
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIXED VALUES DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

WELL-DESERVED DRYING AND WARMING ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
TROUGH CONGEALS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL BE DEALING WITH RESIDUAL COOLER POOL OF AIR IN MID
LEVELS ON MONDAY...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT IDEA OF PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER.

GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATED A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH ACTS TO PULL A BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF IS ALMOST A DAY LATER AND MUCH WEAKER
WITH PUSH AS WELL AS HAVING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH TO
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. DAY TO DAY LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROGS ARE AS
MUCH AS 4-6C DIFFERENT...EC BEING COOLER TUESDAY...AND GFS COOLER
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THE RECENT WETNESS WOULD SUGGEST STAYING AWAY
FROM THE WARMEST SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY DID NOT ALTER TEMPS MUCH
FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE WHICH FELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE POTENTIAL
RANGE EACH DAY. END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BLANKET THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. LOW END VFR
CEILINGS EXISTS TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR EAST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LOWER CEILINGS EXIST. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290908
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE...AS A SUBTLE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH OF AIR
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IN FACT...HAVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATING AREAS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...HOWEVER THE FURTHER YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST...IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES. BECAUSE OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE THE WARMEST HIGHS TODAY
AROUND MARSHALL MN WHO SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S AFTER ADDING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE READINGS. CONVERSELY...
CONTINUED A TREND OF GOING WITH CHILLY RAW MODEL VALUES ELSEWHERE
WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...COOLING THINGS OFF TO THE UPPER
40S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MOVES INTO
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING MOVES INTO
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION FROM I 90 SOUTHWARD. THE ONE THING TO WATCH FOR HOWEVER IS
THE 850-700MB STREAMLINES ARE STILL DECIDEDLY USHERING IN A DRY FETCH
OF AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ALL NIGHT. NOTICED THAT THE 06Z NAM HAS
REVERTED TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR EVEN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IN ADDITION...THE NMM IS FAVORING A 06Z NAM
SOLUTION AND THE ARW IS FURTHER SOUTH YET. THEREFORE IT COULD TAKE A
LONG TIME FOR THE RAINFALL TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES EDGING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE A
SHARP POP GRADIENT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MEASURABLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MN. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
ZONES AND A BIT NORTH OF THERE WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...TRENDED LOWS TOWARD RAW MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES WHICH WERE
MORE MILD THEN OTHER READINGS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MAIN SYSTEM TO IMPACT WEATHER IN THE LONGER RANGE IS FRONT LOADED
THIS WEEKEND...AS FINAL OF THREE CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS. UPPER LOW TRACK THIS TIME IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS...GENERALLY VARYING FROM MOST NORTH SOLUTION IN
ECMWF TAKING CENTER NEAR I-80...WHILE GFS IS MOST SOUTHERN WITH CORE
OF FEATURE CLOSER TO I-70.  IN GENERAL...MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE
SOLID ON BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90...
AND LIMITING STREAMLINES 850-700 HPA INDICATE MORE THAN A BIT OF A
STRUGGLE TO GET PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO HIGHWAY 14 /HURON - MARSHALL/.
GENERAL TREND IN EARLIER FORECAST MAINTAINED...JUST A BIT SHARPER ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A ROGUE RUMBLE
INTO THE KSUX/KSLB AREAS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...BUT
CHANCE IS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD TO MENTION. SAFE TO SAY THAT
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN PLEASANT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S DURING PRECIP. WARMEST READINGS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER FROM KHON TO KMML...LAST TO SEE RAIN IF AT ALL...AND LIKELY
CLOSE TO 900 HPA MIXING VALUES IN MID 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ADVECTIONS QUICKLY NEUTRALIZE ANY BETTER CHANCES
FOR ADDED PRECIPITATION BY NIGHTS END. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SURFACE...HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD FOCUS TO DEFORMATION BAND. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY CLOSER TO U.S. HIGHWAY 20...BUT ANY
LINGERING FORCING IS OVER VERY EARLY. POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
VARYING FROM MORE THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF AN ACADEMY TO STORM LAKE
LINE...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOWARD HIGHWAY 14.

LIKELY TO BE A FLAT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ON SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. KEPT AWAY FROM
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIXED VALUES DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

WELL-DESERVED DRYING AND WARMING ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
TROUGH CONGEALS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL BE DEALING WITH RESIDUAL COOLER POOL OF AIR IN MID
LEVELS ON MONDAY...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT IDEA OF PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER.

GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATED A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH ACTS TO PULL A BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF IS ALMOST A DAY LATER AND MUCH WEAKER
WITH PUSH AS WELL AS HAVING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH TO
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. DAY TO DAY LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROGS ARE AS
MUCH AS 4-6C DIFFERENT...EC BEING COOLER TUESDAY...AND GFS COOLER
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THE RECENT WETNESS WOULD SUGGEST STAYING AWAY
FROM THE WARMEST SOLUTIONS...AND GENERALLY DID NOT ALTER TEMPS MUCH
FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE WHICH FELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE POTENTIAL
RANGE EACH DAY. END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BLANKET THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. LOW END VFR
CEILINGS EXISTS TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR EAST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LOWER CEILINGS EXIST. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW SHOULD END AROUND THE
END OF THE DAY...AND GENERALLY TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE ONLY A WEAK NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND IT AND SEE ONLY A LITTLE OF
THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER A
LITTLE LATE AFTER LIFTING SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE START OF
THIS EVENING...AND AM CLOSE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NO
MENTION...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG IN ANY EVENT...BUT WILL
COORDINATE ON THE IDEA.

FRIDAY MAY BRING A LITTLE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR
NORTH...WELL NORTH OF I-90...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN. THE
APPROACHING RAIN SYSTEM LOOKS SLOWER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY FROM 9V9 TO SUX AND SOUTHWEST LOOK
TOPS AND I COULD SEE THE RAIN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY...WHICH OF
COURSE IS WHAT I AM SAYING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS.

LOW TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LOOK EASY. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE LATE DAY RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEEING A SOUTHWARD TREND IN SOME MODELS WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL WITH ANY SUCH SHIFT...
SOME MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TREND THAN OTHERS. IN
THIS CASE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND GEM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE... TRACKING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS AND REALLY LIMITING ANY PRECIP THREAT TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NAM/ECMWF ARE STILL FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...WITH ECMWF THE FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA... AND THOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL REMAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14. IN
ALL CASES...LOW IS SLOWEST AND STRONGEST AS IT SPINS THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THIS ARE A SLOWER AND LESS EXTENSIVE NORTHWARD
PUSH OF THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND A QUICKER EXIT TO THE
PRECIP ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...GFS/GEM/NAM HAVE ALL ARE NOW COMPLETELY
DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ONTO SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING LIKELY OR
BETTER POPS TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AT BEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE NORTH-SOUTH RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THOUGH FOR NOW WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 14...TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

SLOWER/SOUTHWARD TREND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND AFTER
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 40S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...TO MID
50S NORTH OF I-90. EXITING RAIN AND DECREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ALL-AROUND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

WARMING/DRYING TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK LOBES OF ENERGY COULD
CLIP PARTS OF OUR MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES AS THEY SLIDE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED
TO ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. SEEING MUCH GREATER MODEL DIVERGENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WITH 12Z GFS TAKING SHIFT TOWARD A
COLDER END TO THE WEEK AS A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE BUILDS
THE UPPER RIDGE EVEN FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AND LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE GFS AS
OF YET...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BLANKET THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. LOW END VFR
CEILINGS EXISTS TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR EAST...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LOWER CEILINGS EXIST. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281959
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW SHOULD END AROUND THE
END OF THE DAY...AND GENERALLY TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE ONLY A WEAK NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND IT AND SEE ONLY A LITTLE OF
THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY CLOUDY TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER A
LITTLE LATE AFTER LIFTING SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE START OF
THIS EVENING...AND AM CLOSE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NO
MENTION...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG IN ANY EVENT...BUT WILL
COORDINATE ON THE IDEA.

FRIDAY MAY BRING A LITTLE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR
NORTH...WELL NORTH OF I-90...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN. THE
APPROACHING RAIN SYSTEM LOOKS SLOWER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY FROM 9V9 TO SUX AND SOUTHWEST LOOK
TOPS AND I COULD SEE THE RAIN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY...WHICH OF
COURSE IS WHAT I AM SAYING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS.

LOW TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LOOK EASY. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE LATE DAY RAIN.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEEING A SOUTHWARD TREND IN SOME MODELS WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL WITH ANY SUCH SHIFT...
SOME MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TREND THAN OTHERS. IN
THIS CASE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND GEM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE... TRACKING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS AND REALLY LIMITING ANY PRECIP THREAT TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NAM/ECMWF ARE STILL FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...WITH ECMWF THE FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA... AND THOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL REMAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14. IN
ALL CASES...LOW IS SLOWEST AND STRONGEST AS IT SPINS THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THIS ARE A SLOWER AND LESS EXTENSIVE NORTHWARD
PUSH OF THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND A QUICKER EXIT TO THE
PRECIP ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...GFS/GEM/NAM HAVE ALL ARE NOW COMPLETELY
DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ONTO SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING LIKELY OR
BETTER POPS TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AT BEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE NORTH-SOUTH RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THOUGH FOR NOW WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 14...TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

SLOWER/SOUTHWARD TREND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND AFTER
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 40S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...TO MID
50S NORTH OF I-90. EXITING RAIN AND DECREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ALL-AROUND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

WARMING/DRYING TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK LOBES OF ENERGY COULD
CLIP PARTS OF OUR MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES AS THEY SLIDE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED
TO ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. SEEING MUCH GREATER MODEL DIVERGENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WITH 12Z GFS TAKING SHIFT TOWARD A
COLDER END TO THE WEEK AS A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE BUILDS
THE UPPER RIDGE EVEN FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AND LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE GFS AS
OF YET...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEPS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET. PATCHY CEILINGS BLO 1K FEET THROUGH 20Z. SCT
-SHRA THROUGH 22Z. AREAS CEILINGS BLO 1K FEET DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER 29/09Z WITH AREAS VISIBILITY 3-5SM/BR. VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING TO P6SM AGAIN AFTER 29/15Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281720
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS UPPER LOW
WORKS TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...BUT DO NOT THINK
RATE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. WITH 925 HPA TEMPS NEAR 0C...EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

CLOUD WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL.  ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE
MEN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SO STUCK WITH BLEND FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAINFALL NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
PRECIP. THE NAM IS KEYING ON SOME POSITIVE 850MB THETAE ADVECTION
WITH A MOISTURE PROFILE THAT IS MORE ROBUST IN THE MID LEVELS THAT
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE NAM SOLUTION BEING SO CONSISTENT IS
INCREASINGLY HARD TO IGNORE...THEREFORE EXTENDED AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TO AROUND I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN
SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE AIR IS CERTAINLY DRIER. CONCERNING HIGHS...
BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
THE TREND OF FOLLOWING THE COLDER GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE
THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FROM MARSHALL MN TO SPENCER IA...WHERE WE ADDED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. PIVOTS COUNTER CLOCKWISE. THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S...BOOTING THE
LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THEREFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE RESIDES ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT THETAE ADVECTION. HEADING NORTH OF I 90...IT WILL BE
RAINY BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS YOU GET EVER CLOSER TO THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. NOW BY SUNDAY...THE
LOW FILLS WHILE IT WEAKENS WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...
ALLOWING THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIGHTER HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO SUNDAY. IN FACT ONE CAN STATE A STRONG
CASE NOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER KEPT THE DIURNAL RANGE VERY SMALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE
AGAIN THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES DID THE BEST JOB AT THIS
SCENARIO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT
STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH RAINFALL FINALLY WANING.

EARLY AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WE GET A PATTERN SHIFT STILL
ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS
WILL SETUP A MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA WITH FINALLY
DRIER WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FOG POTENTIAL
DUE TO WET GROUND...HOWEVER THE SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
CONSISTENTLY WEST OR NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO THAT
COULD HELP KEEP AT LEAST WIDESPREAD FOG AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET. PATCHY CEILINGS BLO 1K FEET THROUGH 20Z. SCT
-SHRA THROUGH 22Z. AREAS CEILINGS BLO 1K FEET DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER 29/09Z WITH AREAS VISIBILITY 3-5SM/BR. VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING TO P6SM AGAIN AFTER 29/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS UPPER LOW
WORKS TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...BUT DO NOT THINK
RATE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. WITH 925 HPA TEMPS NEAR 0C...EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

CLOUD WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL.  ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE
MEN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SO STUCK WITH BLEND FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAINFALL NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
PRECIP. THE NAM IS KEYING ON SOME POSITIVE 850MB THETAE ADVECTION
WITH A MOISTURE PROFILE THAT IS MORE ROBUST IN THE MID LEVELS THAT
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE NAM SOLUTION BEING SO CONSISTENT IS
INCREASINGLY HARD TO IGNORE...THEREFORE EXTENDED AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TO AROUND I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN
SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE AIR IS CERTAINLY DRIER. CONCERNING HIGHS...
BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
THE TREND OF FOLLOWING THE COLDER GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE
THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FROM MARSHALL MN TO SPENCER IA...WHERE WE ADDED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. PIVOTS COUNTER CLOCKWISE. THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S...BOOTING THE
LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THEREFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE RESIDES ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT THETAE ADVECTION. HEADING NORTH OF I 90...IT WILL BE
RAINY BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS YOU GET EVER CLOSER TO THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. NOW BY SUNDAY...THE
LOW FILLS WHILE IT WEAKENS WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...
ALLOWING THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIGHTER HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO SUNDAY. IN FACT ONE CAN STATE A STRONG
CASE NOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER KEPT THE DIURNAL RANGE VERY SMALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE
AGAIN THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES DID THE BEST JOB AT THIS
SCENARIO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT
STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH RAINFALL FINALLY WANING.

EARLY AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WE GET A PATTERN SHIFT STILL
ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS
WILL SETUP A MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA WITH FINALLY
DRIER WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FOG POTENTIAL
DUE TO WET GROUND...HOWEVER THE SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
CONSISTENTLY WEST OR NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO THAT
COULD HELP KEEP AT LEAST WIDESPREAD FOG AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z AS UPPER LOW CHURNS EASTEWARD. PATCHY LOW CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BT





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280914
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS UPPER LOW
WORKS TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX
IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...BUT DO NOT THINK
RATE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. WITH 925 HPA TEMPS NEAR 0C...EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

CLOUD WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL.  ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE
MEN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SO STUCK WITH BLEND FOR LOWS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE LOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAINFALL NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE HIRES NMM AND ARW ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
PRECIP. THE NAM IS KEYING ON SOME POSITIVE 850MB THETAE ADVECTION
WITH A MOISTURE PROFILE THAT IS MORE ROBUST IN THE MID LEVELS THAT
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE NAM SOLUTION BEING SO CONSISTENT IS
INCREASINGLY HARD TO IGNORE...THEREFORE EXTENDED AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TO AROUND I 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN
SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE AIR IS CERTAINLY DRIER. CONCERNING HIGHS...
BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
THE TREND OF FOLLOWING THE COLDER GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE
THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FROM MARSHALL MN TO SPENCER IA...WHERE WE ADDED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. PIVOTS COUNTER CLOCKWISE. THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S...BOOTING THE
LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THEREFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE RESIDES ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT THETAE ADVECTION. HEADING NORTH OF I 90...IT WILL BE
RAINY BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS YOU GET EVER CLOSER TO THE
LIMITING STREAMLINES BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. NOW BY SUNDAY...THE
LOW FILLS WHILE IT WEAKENS WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...
ALLOWING THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIGHTER HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY INTO SUNDAY. IN FACT ONE CAN STATE A STRONG
CASE NOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER KEPT THE DIURNAL RANGE VERY SMALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE
AGAIN THE CONSENSUS RAW MODEL VALUES DID THE BEST JOB AT THIS
SCENARIO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT
STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH RAINFALL FINALLY WANING.

EARLY AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WE GET A PATTERN SHIFT STILL
ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS
WILL SETUP A MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA WITH FINALLY
DRIER WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FOG POTENTIAL
DUE TO WET GROUND...HOWEVER THE SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE
CONSISTENTLY WEST OR NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO THAT
COULD HELP KEEP AT LEAST WIDESPREAD FOG AT BAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN...IN ADDITION
TO CEILINGS AROUND 700 TO 2000 FT AGL. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE TAFS PESSIMISTIC FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

STRONG LOBE LIFTING NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A FAIR BREAK TO THE
STEADY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS LOBE WILL BE WEAKENING
AND EXPECT THAT THE CIRCULATION AND MINOR LOBES ROTATION AROUND
THE NORTHWEST SIDE WILL MAKE THE DECREASE MUCH MORE MODEST IN THE
HON/9V9 AREA WITH RAIN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF APPROACHES THE SUX AREA...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...SO AREAS THAT ARE SEEING A RAIN DECREASE NOW
WILL SEE IT PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE WHOLE RAIN AREA SHOULD BE SLOWLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY AND ALSO DECREASING IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THIS SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AS
LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE SPOTTY AND ENDS BY THE END OF THE DAY.

COOLING OVERNIGHT MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH TO GET A LITTLE MIXED
LIGHT SNOW WITH LINGERING RAIN IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL KEEP IT
MINIMAL WITH NO ACCUMULATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERLAID WITH A
WARMER LAYER ALOFT. THESE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MODEST WARM LAYER A BIT HIGHER
BEGINS TO COOL.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SLOWLY MOVING LOW THURSDAY...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S WEST/NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE ONLY IN THE
40S...EXCEPT 50 OR SO AROUND SIOUX CITY.

GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS A
BIT... ESPECIALLY NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR
INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I-90. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AT THIS TIME SO FROST POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO MID 50S NORTH OF I-90.

NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THIS REGION AS BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW. CIRCULATION FORECAST TO PASS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
WAVE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH...INSTEAD
OF NEAR THE SD/ND STATE BORDER AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS.
AT THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
HOWEVER ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROUGH SLIPS EAST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
TO SUNDAY...INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER IN NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DRY SLOT
MAY NUDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

STRONGER UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
DRIVING ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND GENERATING SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES. OPTED TO
LEAVE THESE PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH ECMWF/GEM HOLDING ON TO MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN...IN ADDITION
TO CEILINGS AROUND 700 TO 2000 FT AGL. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE TAFS PESSIMISTIC FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

STRONG LOBE LIFTING NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A FAIR BREAK TO THE
STEADY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS LOBE WILL BE WEAKENING
AND EXPECT THAT THE CIRCULATION AND MINOR LOBES ROTATION AROUND
THE NORTHWEST SIDE WILL MAKE THE DECREASE MUCH MORE MODEST IN THE
HON/9V9 AREA WITH RAIN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF APPROACHES THE SUX AREA...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...SO AREAS THAT ARE SEEING A RAIN DECREASE NOW
WILL SEE IT PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE WHOLE RAIN AREA SHOULD BE SLOWLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY AND ALSO DECREASING IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THIS SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AS
LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE SPOTTY AND ENDS BY THE END OF THE DAY.

COOLING OVERNIGHT MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH TO GET A LITTLE MIXED
LIGHT SNOW WITH LINGERING RAIN IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL KEEP IT
MINIMAL WITH NO ACCUMULATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERLAID WITH A
WARMER LAYER ALOFT. THESE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MODEST WARM LAYER A BIT HIGHER
BEGINS TO COOL.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SLOWLY MOVING LOW THURSDAY...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S WEST/NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE ONLY IN THE
40S...EXCEPT 50 OR SO AROUND SIOUX CITY.

GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS A
BIT... ESPECIALLY NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR
INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I-90. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AT THIS TIME SO FROST POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO MID 50S NORTH OF I-90.

NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THIS REGION AS BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW. CIRCULATION FORECAST TO PASS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
WAVE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH...INSTEAD
OF NEAR THE SD/ND STATE BORDER AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS.
AT THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
HOWEVER ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROUGH SLIPS EAST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
TO SUNDAY...INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER IN NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DRY SLOT
MAY NUDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

STRONGER UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
DRIVING ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND GENERATING SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES. OPTED TO
LEAVE THESE PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH ECMWF/GEM HOLDING ON TO MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN...IN ADDITION
TO CEILINGS AROUND 700 TO 2000 FT AGL. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE TAFS PESSIMISTIC FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

STRONG LOBE LIFTING NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A FAIR BREAK TO THE
STEADY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THIS LOBE WILL BE WEAKENING
AND EXPECT THAT THE CIRCULATION AND MINOR LOBES ROTATION AROUND
THE NORTHWEST SIDE WILL MAKE THE DECREASE MUCH MORE MODEST IN THE
HON/9V9 AREA WITH RAIN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF APPROACHES THE SUX AREA...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...SO AREAS THAT ARE SEEING A RAIN DECREASE NOW
WILL SEE IT PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE WHOLE RAIN AREA SHOULD BE SLOWLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY AND ALSO DECREASING IN INTENSITY FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THIS SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AS
LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE SPOTTY AND ENDS BY THE END OF THE DAY.

COOLING OVERNIGHT MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH TO GET A LITTLE MIXED
LIGHT SNOW WITH LINGERING RAIN IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL KEEP IT
MINIMAL WITH NO ACCUMULATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERLAID WITH A
WARMER LAYER ALOFT. THESE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MODEST WARM LAYER A BIT HIGHER
BEGINS TO COOL.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SLOWLY MOVING LOW THURSDAY...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S WEST/NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE ONLY IN THE
40S...EXCEPT 50 OR SO AROUND SIOUX CITY.

GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS A
BIT... ESPECIALLY NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR
INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I-90. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AT THIS TIME SO FROST POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO MID 50S NORTH OF I-90.

NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THIS REGION AS BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW. CIRCULATION FORECAST TO PASS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
WAVE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH...INSTEAD
OF NEAR THE SD/ND STATE BORDER AS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS.
AT THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
HOWEVER ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROUGH SLIPS EAST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
TO SUNDAY...INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER IN NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DRY SLOT
MAY NUDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

STRONGER UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
DRIVING ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND GENERATING SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES. OPTED TO
LEAVE THESE PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH ECMWF/GEM HOLDING ON TO MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2-2K FEET WITH RAIN...AREAS VSBY 3-5SM AND
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET IN RAIN WITH BRIEF VSBY BELOW 3SM. LITTLE
CHANGE IN CEILINGS THROUGH 28/18Z. RAIN AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH 28/09Z...AND BECOME GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 28/09Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH 28/00Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271734
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1234 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WET AND COOL FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH..THE LOBE OF
ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT BAND
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IF
NOT FALL SLIGHTLY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. MAY SEE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTING FROM WARM LAYER NEAR
850 YIELDS SOME MARGINAL CAPE.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.  SOUNDING PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE
INTERESTING...AS SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS QUESTIONABLE
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SATURATE SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT IS NOT COOL ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION
PARTICLES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN IF ICE
CRYSTAL IS ABLE TO SURVIVE FROM ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ON THURSDAY...OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS A BIT AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AS A WELL ADVERTISED SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA GIVING THIS CURRENT LOW THE BOOT. BUT
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE UNSETTLED...CERTAINLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
THE PRECIP BECOMING SKITTISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS THE FORCING...WITH SOME DECENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND CONNECTING INTO A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN MT. THIS
HELPS THE MOISTURE PROFILE REMAIN SATURATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND OFF AN ON LIGHT RAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL
VALUES INCLUDING THE ECMWF. BUT STRAIGHT ECMWF LOOK TOO COLD. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIXED WITH THE
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE HOVERING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STICK.

THINGS FINALLY DRY OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY.
THE NAM IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE THE NAM WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. BELIEVE THE LATTER THREE MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE
DRIER PROFILE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY
ABOVE FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES
AS THERE STILL COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT ANY RATE...
EVEN WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...IT IS CHILLY FROM 925-850MB.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MISERABLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MIXING FROM 925MB YIELDS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 15 TO
30 MPH ADDING A CHILL TO THE AIR. SUPERBLEND LOOKS TOO MILD AND WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. USED ECMWF AND RAW MODEL VALUES ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BUT AFTER THAT...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
THAT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2-2K FEET WITH RAIN...AREAS VSBY 3-5SM AND
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET IN RAIN WITH BRIEF VSBY BELOW 3SM. LITTLE
CHANGE IN CEILINGS THROUGH 28/18Z. RAIN AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH 28/09Z...AND BECOME GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 28/09Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH 28/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WET AND COOL FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH..THE LOBE OF
ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT BAND
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IF
NOT FALL SLIGHTLY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. MAY SEE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTING FROM WARM LAYER NEAR
850 YIELDS SOME MARGINAL CAPE.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.  SOUNDING PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE
INTERESTING...AS SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS QUESTIONABLE
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SATURATE SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT IS NOT COOL ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION
PARTICLES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN IF ICE
CRYSTAL IS ABLE TO SURVIVE FROM ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ON THURSDAY...OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS A BIT AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AS A WELL ADVERTISED SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA GIVING THIS CURRENT LOW THE BOOT. BUT
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE UNSETTLED...CERTAINLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
THE PRECIP BECOMING SKITTISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS THE FORCING...WITH SOME DECENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND CONNECTING INTO A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN MT. THIS
HELPS THE MOISTURE PROFILE REMAIN SATURATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND OFF AN ON LIGHT RAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL
VALUES INCLUDING THE ECMWF. BUT STRAIGHT ECMWF LOOK TOO COLD. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIXED WITH THE
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE HOVERING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STICK.

THINGS FINALLY DRY OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY.
THE NAM IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE THE NAM WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. BELIEVE THE LATTER THREE MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE
DRIER PROFILE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY
ABOVE FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES
AS THERE STILL COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT ANY RATE...
EVEN WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...IT IS CHILLY FROM 925-850MB.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MISERABLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MIXING FROM 925MB YIELDS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 15 TO
30 MPH ADDING A CHILL TO THE AIR. SUPERBLEND LOOKS TOO MILD AND WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. USED ECMWF AND RAW MODEL VALUES ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BUT AFTER THAT...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
THAT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH DRIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BT





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WET AND COOL FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH..THE LOBE OF
ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT BAND
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IF
NOT FALL SLIGHTLY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. MAY SEE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTING FROM WARM LAYER NEAR
850 YIELDS SOME MARGINAL CAPE.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.  SOUNDING PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE
INTERESTING...AS SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS QUESTIONABLE
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SATURATE SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT IS NOT COOL ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION
PARTICLES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN IF ICE
CRYSTAL IS ABLE TO SURVIVE FROM ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ON THURSDAY...OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS A BIT AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AS A WELL ADVERTISED SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA GIVING THIS CURRENT LOW THE BOOT. BUT
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE UNSETTLED...CERTAINLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
THE PRECIP BECOMING SKITTISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS THE FORCING...WITH SOME DECENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND CONNECTING INTO A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN MT. THIS
HELPS THE MOISTURE PROFILE REMAIN SATURATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND OFF AN ON LIGHT RAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL
VALUES INCLUDING THE ECMWF. BUT STRAIGHT ECMWF LOOK TOO COLD. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIXED WITH THE
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE HOVERING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STICK.

THINGS FINALLY DRY OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY.
THE NAM IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE THE NAM WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. BELIEVE THE LATTER THREE MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE
DRIER PROFILE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY
ABOVE FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES
AS THERE STILL COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT ANY RATE...
EVEN WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...IT IS CHILLY FROM 925-850MB.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MISERABLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MIXING FROM 925MB YIELDS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 15 TO
30 MPH ADDING A CHILL TO THE AIR. SUPERBLEND LOOKS TOO MILD AND WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. USED ECMWF AND RAW MODEL VALUES ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BUT AFTER THAT...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
THAT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH DRIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BT





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270930 CCA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WET AND COOL FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH..THE LOBE OF
ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT BAND
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IF
NOT FALL SLIGHTLY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. MAY SEE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTING FROM WARM LAYER NEAR
850 YIELDS SOME MARGINAL CAPE.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.  SOUNDING PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE
INTERESTING...AS SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS QUESTIONABLE
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SATURATE SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT IS NOT COOL ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION
PARTICLES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN IF ICE
CRYSTAL IS ABLE TO SURVIVE FROM ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ON THURSDAY...OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS A BIT AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AS A WELL ADVERTISED SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA GIVING THIS CURRENT LOW THE BOOT. BUT
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE UNSETTLED...CERTAINLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
THE PRECIP BECOMING SKITTISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS THE FORCING...WITH SOME DECENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND CONNECTING INTO A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN MT. THIS
HELPS THE MOISTURE PROFILE REMAIN SATURATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND OFF AN ON LIGHT RAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL
VALUES INCLUDING THE ECMWF. BUT STRAIGHT ECMWF LOOK TOO COLD. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIXED WITH THE
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE HOVERING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STICK.

THINGS FINALLY DRY OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY.
THE NAM IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE THE NAM WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. BELIEVE THE LATTER THREE MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE
DRIER PROFILE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY
ABOVE FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES
AS THERE STILL COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT ANY RATE...
EVEN WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...IT IS CHILLY FROM 925-850MB.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MISERABLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MIXING FROM 925MB YIELDS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 15 TO
30 MPH ADDING A CHILL TO THE AIR. SUPERBLEND LOOKS TOO MILD AND WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. USED ECMWF AND RAW MODEL VALUES ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BUT AFTER THAT...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
THAT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF THUNDER THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW...AND THUS
OPTED TO NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25KT AT TIMES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270910
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WET AND COOL FORECAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH..THE LOBE OF
ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT BAND
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IF
NOT FALL SLIGHTLY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. MAY SEE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTING FROM WARM LAYER NEAR
850 YIELDS SOME MARGINAL CAPE.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS UPPER WAVE PIVOTS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH RAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.  SOUNDING PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE
INTERESTING...AS SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS QUESTIONABLE
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SATURATE SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT IS NOT COOL ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION
PARTICLES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN IF ICE
CRYSTAL IS ABLE TO SURVIVE FROM ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ON THURSDAY...OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS A BIT AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AS A WELL ADVERTISED SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA GIVING THIS CURRENT LOW THE BOOT. BUT
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE UNSETTLED...CERTAINLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
THE PRECIP BECOMING SKITTISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS THE FORCING...WITH SOME DECENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND CONNECTING INTO A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN MT. THIS
HELPS THE MOISTURE PROFILE REMAIN SATURATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND OFF AN ON LIGHT RAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL
VALUES INCLUDING THE ECMWF. BUT STRAIGHT ECMWF LOOK TOO COLD. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIXED WITH THE
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE HOVERING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES...ANY
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STICK.

THINGS FINALLY DRY OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
EVENING...AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM GLOBAL. THEREFORE THE NAM
WAS NOT FOLLOWED. BELIEVE THE LATTER THREE MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE
DRIER PROFILE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY
ABOVE FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES
AS THERE STILL COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT ANY RATE...
EVEN WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...IT IS CHILLY FROM 925-850MB.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MISERABLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
AS MIXING FROM 925MB YIELDS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 15 TO
30 MPH ADDING A CHILL TO THE AIR. SUPERBLEND LOOKS TOO MILD AND WAS
NOT FOLLOWED. USED ECMWF AND RAW MODEL VALUES ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BUT AFTER THAT...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING
THAT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF THUNDER THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW...AND THUS
OPTED TO NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25KT AT TIMES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERN LOBE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
ROTATES AROUND A WY AXIS. THE FLOW WILL STEADILY GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY AS THIS LOBE APPROACHES AND ACTUALLY
BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WEAK WAVES STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRIGGERED LIGHT
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY AND THAT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. WE
ARE LEFT WITH AWAITING THE DECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WILL COME UP DURING THE EVENING AND BRING WIDESPREAD WET
WEATHER BY LATE TONIGHT.

ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STREAM INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER CHANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE SEEN AS VERY UNLIKELY
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL THREAT MAINLY UP TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA.

REPEATING SMALL SCALE UPPER IMPULSES ADDED TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THIS FOR NOW IS NOT
SEEN OVER TIME RANGES SHORT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET PRETTY SOAKED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PATTERNS MAY
AFFECT THAT.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...BUT THIS WILL BE PARTLY DUE TO THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND WILL NOT SHAVE POPS TOO MUCH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOME EASTERLY... AND CONCEIVABLY COULD GET
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. NO
ADVISORY PLANNED FOR NOW.

NOT TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
STAY WELL OUT. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE
40S WEST AND NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERN SURGE OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT SUX INTO THE 60S BUT WILL NOT
PLAN ON THAT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPPED UP UPPER WAVE PUSHES OUT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT QUIETER COVERAGE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT LOBE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WAVE EARLY EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THETA E ADVECTION...WRAPPING ALL THE WAY
BACK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREAS. A WEE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR/AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WRAPPING INTO PARTS
OF NW IA/NE NEBRASKA/EXTREME SE SD MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKELY NO MORE THAN ISOLATED RUMBLES ALONG WITH IT.

CONTINUED STRETCHING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE FOR A
GRADUALLY LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF REMAINS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS COMPARED TO GFS/CANADIAN... BUT
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO SEE MORE RAPID DECREASE TO SHOWERS SOUTH
COMPARED TO NORTH...DESPITE CLOUDS REMAINING PREVALENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE RAINFALL.  CLOUDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN WITH FLOW WEAK BETWEEN
EXITING SYSTEM...AND THE NEXT LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE DAY.  A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TOWARD EVENING UPON STRENGTHENING AND FOCUS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TOWARD THE MISSOURI CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER
FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

IT WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY PLAYING OUT AGAIN GOING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WOBBLES OUT INTO THE
MID PLAINS SATURDAY AND AGAIN SHEARS OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE EVEN LOWER THIS TIME AROUND CREEPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TAKING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. STILL
WILL SEE A DRY PUNCH ALOFT WRAPPING IN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AGAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AMBIENT MOISTURE LEADING INTO THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION SETTLES AFTER MID WEEK SYSTEM TO SEE
WHAT IMPACTS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW MAY HAVE ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES.

ONE THING FOR SURE...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SNEAKY SLIGHT CLIMB TO
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH LACK OF PRECIP...TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT MINIMAL
DIURNAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. BY THE TIME MONDAY COMES
ABOUT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS START A TREND TO RETURN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF THUNDER THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW...AND THUS
OPTED TO NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25KT AT TIMES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERN LOBE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
ROTATES AROUND A WY AXIS. THE FLOW WILL STEADILY GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY AS THIS LOBE APPROACHES AND ACTUALLY
BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WEAK WAVES STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRIGGERED LIGHT
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY AND THAT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. WE
ARE LEFT WITH AWAITING THE DECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WILL COME UP DURING THE EVENING AND BRING WIDESPREAD WET
WEATHER BY LATE TONIGHT.

ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STREAM INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER CHANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE SEEN AS VERY UNLIKELY
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL THREAT MAINLY UP TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA.

REPEATING SMALL SCALE UPPER IMPULSES ADDED TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THIS FOR NOW IS NOT
SEEN OVER TIME RANGES SHORT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET PRETTY SOAKED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PATTERNS MAY
AFFECT THAT.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...BUT THIS WILL BE PARTLY DUE TO THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND WILL NOT SHAVE POPS TOO MUCH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOME EASTERLY... AND CONCEIVABLY COULD GET
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. NO
ADVISORY PLANNED FOR NOW.

NOT TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
STAY WELL OUT. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE
40S WEST AND NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERN SURGE OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT SUX INTO THE 60S BUT WILL NOT
PLAN ON THAT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPPED UP UPPER WAVE PUSHES OUT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT QUIETER COVERAGE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT LOBE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WAVE EARLY EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THETA E ADVECTION...WRAPPING ALL THE WAY
BACK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREAS. A WEE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR/AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WRAPPING INTO PARTS
OF NW IA/NE NEBRASKA/EXTREME SE SD MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKELY NO MORE THAN ISOLATED RUMBLES ALONG WITH IT.

CONTINUED STRETCHING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE FOR A
GRADUALLY LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF REMAINS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS COMPARED TO GFS/CANADIAN... BUT
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO SEE MORE RAPID DECREASE TO SHOWERS SOUTH
COMPARED TO NORTH...DESPITE CLOUDS REMAINING PREVALENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE RAINFALL.  CLOUDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN WITH FLOW WEAK BETWEEN
EXITING SYSTEM...AND THE NEXT LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE DAY.  A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TOWARD EVENING UPON STRENGTHENING AND FOCUS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TOWARD THE MISSOURI CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER
FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

IT WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY PLAYING OUT AGAIN GOING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WOBBLES OUT INTO THE
MID PLAINS SATURDAY AND AGAIN SHEARS OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE EVEN LOWER THIS TIME AROUND CREEPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TAKING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. STILL
WILL SEE A DRY PUNCH ALOFT WRAPPING IN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AGAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AMBIENT MOISTURE LEADING INTO THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION SETTLES AFTER MID WEEK SYSTEM TO SEE
WHAT IMPACTS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW MAY HAVE ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES.

ONE THING FOR SURE...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SNEAKY SLIGHT CLIMB TO
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH LACK OF PRECIP...TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT MINIMAL
DIURNAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. BY THE TIME MONDAY COMES
ABOUT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS START A TREND TO RETURN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALREADY HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. RAIN WITH LOW-END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING A BIT LATE IN
THE DAY TOWARD KSUX. IN ADDITION WILL SEE INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25KT DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 08Z-10Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERN LOBE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
ROTATES AROUND A WY AXIS. THE FLOW WILL STEADILY GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY AS THIS LOBE APPROACHES AND ACTUALLY
BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WEAK WAVES STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRIGGERED LIGHT
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY AND THAT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. WE
ARE LEFT WITH AWAITING THE DECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WILL COME UP DURING THE EVENING AND BRING WIDESPREAD WET
WEATHER BY LATE TONIGHT.

ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STREAM INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER CHANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATING TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE SEEN AS VERY UNLIKELY
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL THREAT MAINLY UP TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA.

REPEATING SMALL SCALE UPPER IMPULSES ADDED TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THIS FOR NOW IS NOT
SEEN OVER TIME RANGES SHORT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET PRETTY SOAKED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PATTERNS MAY
AFFECT THAT.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...BUT THIS WILL BE PARTLY DUE TO THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND WILL NOT SHAVE POPS TOO MUCH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOME EASTERLY... AND CONCEIVABLY COULD GET
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. NO
ADVISORY PLANNED FOR NOW.

NOT TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
STAY WELL OUT. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE
40S WEST AND NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERN SURGE OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT SUX INTO THE 60S BUT WILL NOT
PLAN ON THAT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPPED UP UPPER WAVE PUSHES OUT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT QUIETER COVERAGE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO NEXT LOBE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WAVE EARLY EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THETA E ADVECTION...WRAPPING ALL THE WAY
BACK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREAS. A WEE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR/AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WRAPPING INTO PARTS
OF NW IA/NE NEBRASKA/EXTREME SE SD MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKELY NO MORE THAN ISOLATED RUMBLES ALONG WITH IT.

CONTINUED STRETCHING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE FOR A
GRADUALLY LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF REMAINS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS COMPARED TO GFS/CANADIAN... BUT
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO SEE MORE RAPID DECREASE TO SHOWERS SOUTH
COMPARED TO NORTH...DESPITE CLOUDS REMAINING PREVALENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE RAINFALL.  CLOUDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN WITH FLOW WEAK BETWEEN
EXITING SYSTEM...AND THE NEXT LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE DAY.  A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TOWARD EVENING UPON STRENGTHENING AND FOCUS OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TOWARD THE MISSOURI CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER
FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

IT WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY PLAYING OUT AGAIN GOING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WOBBLES OUT INTO THE
MID PLAINS SATURDAY AND AGAIN SHEARS OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE EVEN LOWER THIS TIME AROUND CREEPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TAKING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. STILL
WILL SEE A DRY PUNCH ALOFT WRAPPING IN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AGAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AMBIENT MOISTURE LEADING INTO THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION SETTLES AFTER MID WEEK SYSTEM TO SEE
WHAT IMPACTS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW MAY HAVE ON AREA RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES.

ONE THING FOR SURE...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SNEAKY SLIGHT CLIMB TO
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH LACK OF PRECIP...TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT MINIMAL
DIURNAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. BY THE TIME MONDAY COMES
ABOUT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS START A TREND TO RETURN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET. AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET
THROUGH 27/00Z MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MN...THEN OVER ALL OF THE
AREA AFTER 27/00Z. SHRA INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
27/02Z WITH A FEW TSRA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. AFTER 2//02Z
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM. EASTERLY
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY 27/00Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 27/18Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261730
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WHILE MUCH OF TODAY WILL PROVE TO REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. A FAIRLY POTENT CLASH OF AIR MASSES IS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS COLORADO LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE...ADVECTING THIS MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS...MAINLY BELOW
850MB...WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THE 800MB TO 700MB LAYER MAY
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
20Z. THIS SHOULD START TO BRING THE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE AREA. THE CHALLENGE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE A DRY LAYER
IN THAT IMPORTANT 800MB TO 600MB LAYER. THE MODELS ARE NOT REAL
CONSISTENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT NORTH...WHICH
IS IMPORTANT TO AID IN BREAKING THE CAP...BUT MOST ARE FAIRLY
AGREEABLE THIS MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST COME CLOSE TO BREAKING THE
CAP...SO WILL HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME NOT PLANNING ON ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AFTER ABOUT 3Z THE MAIN WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL LIFT NORTH SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DE SMET TO IDA GROVE LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE PRETTY COOL WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS IS HIGHEST TODAY...MAINLY MID 50S...WHILE PARTS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME SUNSHINE. STAYED CLOSEST
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. THE ONLY OFFSET TO REMAINING VERY MILD IS THE THREAT
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
IF THERE WAS NO RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WET AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MOIST TONGUE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD WITH OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER.  AS UPPER LOW BREAKS APART AND ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST
AND THE OTHER LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BOTH
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT ORIGINATING FROM ELEVATED
INVERSION NEAR 850 HPA. EXPECT THUNDER POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE COOLED FORECAST HIGHS AND SQUASHED
DIURNAL RANGE.

ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY AS TO WHERE.  NAM SOUNDINGS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE 900-
800 MB LAYER RESULTING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST NEAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WITH ANY INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW.

REALLY TRENDED DOWN ON POPS FRIDAY AS AREA APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARILY
VOID OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL
TO EVEN PULL THOSE AS MODELS ARE SLOWING SECOND SYSTEM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH...AND AT THIS POINT DOESN/T LOOK TO PRODUCE AS MUCH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL.
HOWEVER...BOTH SYSTEMS BECOME CUT OFF...RESULTING IN COOL DAMP
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET. AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET
THROUGH 27/00Z MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MN...THEN OVER ALL OF THE
AREA AFTER 27/00Z. SHRA INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
27/02Z WITH A FEW TSRA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. AFTER 2//02Z
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM. EASTERLY
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY 27/00Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 27/18Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities