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000
FXUS63 KFSD 021147
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
TODAY. FIRST IS NORTHEASTWARD SHEARING WAVE WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF WAVE...AND WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EVEN WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OCCURRING SOUTHWARD TOWARD I 80.  FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF A
WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
EARLY MORNING RUMBLE OR TWO WANDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH WAVE AXIS PASSING BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION
AND DIV Q SIGNATURES...HAVE PUT IN A BIT QUICKER WEST TO EAST DEMISE
TO RAINFALL...LEAVING ONLY A SCANT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE EARLY DAY PRECIP WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS...MORE SO HEADING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS EAST...AND SOME READINGS PUSHING TOWARD
70 DEGREES IN THE JAMES VALLEY.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUITE EFFECTIVELY AROUND SUNSET...BUT THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG JET FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE DIGGING SHARPLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING... AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF 4 TO
9 HPA/3H. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE POISED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
AROUND SUNSET...NEAR A JACKSON TO VERMILLION LINE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 3 AM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850
HPA WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES...WITH
A DECREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT STILL QUITE WINDY AT A GUSTY 20
TO 30 MPH.

PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN MISSOURI
VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WAVE DIGS PAST LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MUCH MORE THAN A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MAIN STORY ON FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY THE WIND CONCERN. BY DAYTIME...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE SURGE HAS ENDED...GENERALLY
LEAVING JUST A STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS MIX TO 800MB OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LIKELY MIXING DOWN 35 KNOT OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...MAINLY STUCK
WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE 925MB WIND SPEEDS.
THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND WILL HIT
IT HARD IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAD GOING. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE SHREDDING
APART THE ORGANIZED CUMULUS DECK...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
ONLY A THIN DECK OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED
NEAR 5500 FEET. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO MIX TO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE CUMULUS MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTENSE.

STILL LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE ASTOUNDINGLY COLD...WITH MANY 25 TO 30 DEGREE READINGS.
HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW...BELIEVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM PLUMMETING THAT COLD. CONVERSELY...THE
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES ARE TOO WARM SO THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE TRUTH
LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. DOUBT THERE WILL BE A FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE BONE DRY
AIR.

OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SHARP...COLD UPPER TROUGH ACTUALLY RETROGRADING A BIT
WESTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY STIRRED UP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE FRIDAY. ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WILL GIVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOLLOWING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY WHERE TO PLACE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE OF THE GFS. AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE...THEIR
RESPECTIVE DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
FAR OUT...AND SINCE ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND AT
NIGHT...WILL WAIT TO PIN IT DOWN LATER.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY...THEN THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTCH DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND AS EXPECTED...THE CONSENSUS MODEL VALUES
ARE CONTINUING TO TREND OUR HIGHS DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER. BUT
NOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON THE JET STREAM
PLACEMENT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES FOLLOWING SUIT...MOST OF THE
COOLER CORRECTION HAS PROBABLY TAKEN PLACE. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OUR HIGHS MIGHT BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO FIND VLIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND KCKP AND KSLB AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. SHOWERS WORKING NORTHWARD EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...BUT A BRIEF
CEILING OR VISIBILITY INTO MVFR RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KSUX. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
CENTER AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021147
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
TODAY. FIRST IS NORTHEASTWARD SHEARING WAVE WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF WAVE...AND WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EVEN WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OCCURRING SOUTHWARD TOWARD I 80.  FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF A
WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
EARLY MORNING RUMBLE OR TWO WANDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH WAVE AXIS PASSING BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION
AND DIV Q SIGNATURES...HAVE PUT IN A BIT QUICKER WEST TO EAST DEMISE
TO RAINFALL...LEAVING ONLY A SCANT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE EARLY DAY PRECIP WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS...MORE SO HEADING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS EAST...AND SOME READINGS PUSHING TOWARD
70 DEGREES IN THE JAMES VALLEY.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUITE EFFECTIVELY AROUND SUNSET...BUT THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG JET FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE DIGGING SHARPLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING... AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF 4 TO
9 HPA/3H. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE POISED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
AROUND SUNSET...NEAR A JACKSON TO VERMILLION LINE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 3 AM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850
HPA WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES...WITH
A DECREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT STILL QUITE WINDY AT A GUSTY 20
TO 30 MPH.

PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN MISSOURI
VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WAVE DIGS PAST LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MUCH MORE THAN A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MAIN STORY ON FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY THE WIND CONCERN. BY DAYTIME...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE SURGE HAS ENDED...GENERALLY
LEAVING JUST A STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS MIX TO 800MB OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LIKELY MIXING DOWN 35 KNOT OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...MAINLY STUCK
WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE 925MB WIND SPEEDS.
THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND WILL HIT
IT HARD IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAD GOING. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE SHREDDING
APART THE ORGANIZED CUMULUS DECK...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
ONLY A THIN DECK OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED
NEAR 5500 FEET. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO MIX TO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE CUMULUS MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTENSE.

STILL LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE ASTOUNDINGLY COLD...WITH MANY 25 TO 30 DEGREE READINGS.
HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW...BELIEVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM PLUMMETING THAT COLD. CONVERSELY...THE
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES ARE TOO WARM SO THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE TRUTH
LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. DOUBT THERE WILL BE A FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE BONE DRY
AIR.

OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SHARP...COLD UPPER TROUGH ACTUALLY RETROGRADING A BIT
WESTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY STIRRED UP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE FRIDAY. ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WILL GIVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOLLOWING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY WHERE TO PLACE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE OF THE GFS. AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE...THEIR
RESPECTIVE DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
FAR OUT...AND SINCE ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND AT
NIGHT...WILL WAIT TO PIN IT DOWN LATER.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY...THEN THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTCH DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND AS EXPECTED...THE CONSENSUS MODEL VALUES
ARE CONTINUING TO TREND OUR HIGHS DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER. BUT
NOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON THE JET STREAM
PLACEMENT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES FOLLOWING SUIT...MOST OF THE
COOLER CORRECTION HAS PROBABLY TAKEN PLACE. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OUR HIGHS MIGHT BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO FIND VLIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND KCKP AND KSLB AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. SHOWERS WORKING NORTHWARD EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...BUT A BRIEF
CEILING OR VISIBILITY INTO MVFR RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KSUX. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
CENTER AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
404 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
TODAY. FIRST IS NORTHEASTWARD SHEARING WAVE WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF WAVE...AND WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EVEN WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OCCURRING SOUTHWARD TOWARD I 80.  FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF A
WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
EARLY MORNING RUMBLE OR TWO WANDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH WAVE AXIS PASSING BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION
AND DIV Q SIGNATURES...HAVE PUT IN A BIT QUICKER WEST TO EAST DEMISE
TO RAINFALL...LEAVING ONLY A SCANT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE EARLY DAY PRECIP WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS...MORE SO HEADING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS EAST...AND SOME READINGS PUSHING TOWARD
70 DEGREES IN THE JAMES VALLEY.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUITE EFFECTIVELY AROUND SUNSET...BUT THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG JET FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE DIGGING SHARPLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING... AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF 4 TO
9 HPA/3H. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE POISED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
AROUND SUNSET...NEAR A JACKSON TO VERMILLION LINE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 3 AM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850
HPA WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES...WITH
A DECREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT STILL QUITE WINDY AT A GUSTY 20
TO 30 MPH.

PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN MISSOURI
VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WAVE DIGS PAST LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MUCH MORE THAN A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MAIN STORY ON FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY THE WIND CONCERN. BY DAYTIME...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE SURGE HAS ENDED...GENERALLY
LEAVING JUST A STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS MIX TO 800MB OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LIKELY MIXING DOWN 35 KNOT OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...MAINLY STUCK
WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE 925MB WIND SPEEDS.
THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND WILL HIT
IT HARD IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAD GOING. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE SHREDDING
APART THE ORGANIZED CUMULUS DECK...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
ONLY A THIN DECK OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED
NEAR 5500 FEET. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO MIX TO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE CUMULUS MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTENSE.

STILL LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE ASTOUNDINGLY COLD...WITH MANY 25 TO 30 DEGREE READINGS.
HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW...BELIEVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM PLUMMETING THAT COLD. CONVERSELY...THE
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES ARE TOO WARM SO THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE TRUTH
LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. DOUBT THERE WILL BE A FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE BONE DRY
AIR.

OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SHARP...COLD UPPER TROUGH ACTUALLY RETROGRADING A BIT
WESTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY STIRRED UP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE FRIDAY. ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WILL GIVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOLLOWING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY WHERE TO PLACE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE OF THE GFS. AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE...THEIR
RESPECTIVE DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
FAR OUT...AND SINCE ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND AT
NIGHT...WILL WAIT TO PIN IT DOWN LATER.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY...THEN THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTCH DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND AS EXPECTED...THE CONSENSUS MODEL VALUES
ARE CONTINUING TO TREND OUR HIGHS DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER. BUT
NOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON THE JET STREAM
PLACEMENT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES FOLLOWING SUIT...MOST OF THE
COOLER CORRECTION HAS PROBABLY TAKEN PLACE. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OUR HIGHS MIGHT BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT NORTHWEST WITH THE SHOWER THREAT...STILL THINK IT
STAYS SOUTHEAST OF KHON...ALTHOUGH THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES
PROBABLY WILL BE IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A
TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
NOT SURE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A
MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT KSUX. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAKE IT INTO KFSD IN THE MORNING AS WELL...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
404 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
TODAY. FIRST IS NORTHEASTWARD SHEARING WAVE WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF WAVE...AND WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EVEN WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OCCURRING SOUTHWARD TOWARD I 80.  FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF A
WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
EARLY MORNING RUMBLE OR TWO WANDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH WAVE AXIS PASSING BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION
AND DIV Q SIGNATURES...HAVE PUT IN A BIT QUICKER WEST TO EAST DEMISE
TO RAINFALL...LEAVING ONLY A SCANT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE EARLY DAY PRECIP WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS...MORE SO HEADING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS EAST...AND SOME READINGS PUSHING TOWARD
70 DEGREES IN THE JAMES VALLEY.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUITE EFFECTIVELY AROUND SUNSET...BUT THIS
WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG JET FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE DIGGING SHARPLY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING... AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRESSURE RISE OF 4 TO
9 HPA/3H. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE POISED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
AROUND SUNSET...NEAR A JACKSON TO VERMILLION LINE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 3 AM.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 925-850
HPA WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES...WITH
A DECREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT STILL QUITE WINDY AT A GUSTY 20
TO 30 MPH.

PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN MISSOURI
VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WAVE DIGS PAST LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MUCH MORE THAN A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MAIN STORY ON FRIDAY IS OBVIOUSLY THE WIND CONCERN. BY DAYTIME...THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE SURGE HAS ENDED...GENERALLY
LEAVING JUST A STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS MIX TO 800MB OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE IN LIKELY MIXING DOWN 35 KNOT OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS...MAINLY STUCK
WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE 925MB WIND SPEEDS.
THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND WILL HIT
IT HARD IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WE HAD GOING. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE SHREDDING
APART THE ORGANIZED CUMULUS DECK...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
ONLY A THIN DECK OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED
NEAR 5500 FEET. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS STILL LOOK TO MIX TO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE CUMULUS MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTENSE.

STILL LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE ASTOUNDINGLY COLD...WITH MANY 25 TO 30 DEGREE READINGS.
HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW...BELIEVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM PLUMMETING THAT COLD. CONVERSELY...THE
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES ARE TOO WARM SO THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE TRUTH
LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO. DOUBT THERE WILL BE A FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE BONE DRY
AIR.

OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SHARP...COLD UPPER TROUGH ACTUALLY RETROGRADING A BIT
WESTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY STIRRED UP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE FRIDAY. ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WILL GIVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOLLOWING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY WHERE TO PLACE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE ECMWF MOVES IT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE OF THE GFS. AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE...THEIR
RESPECTIVE DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF PHASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
FAR OUT...AND SINCE ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND AT
NIGHT...WILL WAIT TO PIN IT DOWN LATER.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ON MONDAY...THEN THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTCH DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND AS EXPECTED...THE CONSENSUS MODEL VALUES
ARE CONTINUING TO TREND OUR HIGHS DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER. BUT
NOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON THE JET STREAM
PLACEMENT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES FOLLOWING SUIT...MOST OF THE
COOLER CORRECTION HAS PROBABLY TAKEN PLACE. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OUR HIGHS MIGHT BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT NORTHWEST WITH THE SHOWER THREAT...STILL THINK IT
STAYS SOUTHEAST OF KHON...ALTHOUGH THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES
PROBABLY WILL BE IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A
TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
NOT SURE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A
MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT KSUX. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAKE IT INTO KFSD IN THE MORNING AS WELL...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020402
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT NORTHWEST WITH THE SHOWER THREAT...STILL THINK IT
STAYS SOUTHEAST OF KHON...ALTHOUGH THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES
PROBABLY WILL BE IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A
TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
NOT SURE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A
MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT KSUX. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAKE IT INTO KFSD IN THE MORNING AS WELL...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020402
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1101 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT NORTHWEST WITH THE SHOWER THREAT...STILL THINK IT
STAYS SOUTHEAST OF KHON...ALTHOUGH THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES
PROBABLY WILL BE IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A
TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
NOT SURE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A
MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT KSUX. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAKE IT INTO KFSD IN THE MORNING AS WELL...SO SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. THUS THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES COULD BE
IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. NOT SURE IT WILL BE
PREDOMINATE ANYWHERE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A MVFR TEMPO
GROUP AT KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TYNDALL TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. THUS THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES COULD BE
IMPACTED...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE VISIBILITY AND CIG REDUCTIONS FOR A TIME IN THE STEADIER RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. NOT SURE IT WILL BE
PREDOMINATE ANYWHERE...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A MVFR TEMPO
GROUP AT KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 012009
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STRATOCUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I90 AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE KSUX TAF.
THE BETTER CHANCES REACH KFSD AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 012009
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED. WITH SOME THIN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY..A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN
THIS AREA...NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA AS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL BEGINS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FROM
CENTRAL CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE
VALUES ARE PRETTY MEAGER AT AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND A
HALF INCH. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT READINGS. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA WILL END FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AND THE STRONG CANADIAN WAVE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP STRONGLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VERY LIKELY
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE
LADEN AT LOW LEVELS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET NORTHEAST HALF. THE LAG IN LOW
LEVEL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SNOWFLAKES THAT COULD OTHERWISE RESULT FROM AIR THIS COLD.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO 40 OR SO WITH THE COLD WINDS STARTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT WARM MUCH FRIDAY...JUST INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND FREEZING DESPITE
LINGERING WIND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE ADVISORY OR
WARNING...AND FROST WILL NOT BE MENTIONED BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING
WIND AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLD AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START A WARMING TREND AS SLOW BUT STEADY RIDGING
BEGINS BEHIND THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG THEN LIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WAVE WILL BATTLE THE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
SEEM WELL BELOW THE PRECIPITATION MENTION THRESHOLD. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING.

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 50 TO 60 SATURDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH
DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STRATOCUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I90 AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE KSUX TAF.
THE BETTER CHANCES REACH KFSD AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011803
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
103 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STRATOCUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I90 AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE KSUX TAF.
THE BETTER CHANCES REACH KFSD AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011803
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
103 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STRATOCUMULUS. CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I90 AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE KSUX TAF.
THE BETTER CHANCES REACH KFSD AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ABUNDANT FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KSUX TAF SITE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO SEE ON THE IR FOG SATELLITE
CURVE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT KSUX IS ON
THE EDGE OF OF STRATUS...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO LOWER END
VFR CLOSE BY. FOR NOW...OPTED TO GO PREDOMINANT IFR THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR CONDITIONS THAT
GET WORSE. AFTER SUNRISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THAT SITE...BEFORE POSSIBLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT TODAY...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
BUT BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL TREND OF HIGHER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AT
LEAST WHEN SOME OF THEIR FOG BURNS OFF IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

FURTHER NORTH...KFSD RUNS THE RISK OF SOME IFR CEILINGS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEN MVFR SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...
POSSIBLY BREAKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHON APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY SHOULD GO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ABUNDANT FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KSUX TAF SITE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO SEE ON THE IR FOG SATELLITE
CURVE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT KSUX IS ON
THE EDGE OF OF STRATUS...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO LOWER END
VFR CLOSE BY. FOR NOW...OPTED TO GO PREDOMINANT IFR THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR CONDITIONS THAT
GET WORSE. AFTER SUNRISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THAT SITE...BEFORE POSSIBLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT TODAY...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
BUT BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL TREND OF HIGHER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA...AT
LEAST WHEN SOME OF THEIR FOG BURNS OFF IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

FURTHER NORTH...KFSD RUNS THE RISK OF SOME IFR CEILINGS THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEN MVFR SHOULD TAKEOVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...
POSSIBLY BREAKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHON APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY SHOULD GO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010815
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 010815
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD. WITH SFC LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED WITH THE FRONT LINGERING JUST WEST OF HURON AND
MITCHELL. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LEADING TO A BIT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LEVELED OFF AND WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ENE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  FURTHER
WEST...BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHT ECHOES DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE ECHOES ARE LIKELY TIED TO A WEAK
CORRIDOR OF 850:700 MB WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
FORCE THE FRONT EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW IN
COVERAGE.  RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPACTS OUR AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES IN THE IDAHO AND UTAH AREA. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FETCH OF SURFACE
AIR. THEREFORE EARLY IN THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FIRMLY PLANTED ALONG AN AXIS IN OUR WEST...WITH
850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD...MOISTURE
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEAR 850MB...WITH THE 850MB AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BECOMING MORE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. ONE
FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE PRECIP...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDER. DOUBLE CHECKED BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STABILITY
PARAMETERS AND AT LEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...ELEVATED MU CAPES BASED
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER WERE VERY THIN...ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG
OR LESS IN NORTHWEST IA. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
VALUES WERE POSITIVE UNTIL GETTING TOWARDS OMAHA. CONCERNING
HIGHS...THEY ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER. MIXING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF YANKTON TO MARSHALL...WENT WITH THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE
VALUES AND THEN DECREASED A FEW LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THERE. THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOK A BIT MORE MILD WITH SOME
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PREFERRED THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IT APPEARS THE CRUX
OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE IS WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS PRODUCING A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...SIDED WITH THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOUL DAY WEATHERWISE. STRATUS IS LIKELY
TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT
SURE IF OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WILL STRATUS IN THAT FAR
SOUTH...BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL. IN TIME...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. BY 18Z...ALL MODELS SHOW 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925MB...AND 40
TO 55 KNOTS AT 850MB. THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT ARE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MIX HIGHER
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WITH MIXING TO 850MB IN
OUR WEST QUITE LIKELY. UNDER THE STRATUS...MIXING TO 925-900MB
WILL PROBABLY HOLD EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHILLY...
FEELING WORSE WITH THE WIND. WENT WITH STRAIGHT RAW MODEL VALUES
AS MIXING EVEN AS HIGH AS 850MB WILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY
OF OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF MIXING DESPITE THE
WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWS FROM TANKING TOO HARD. NOT SURE IF A
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE WE MAY NOT FROST DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND WIND. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S THOUGH...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE...BUT AT ANY
RATE WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ALSO.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEEPENS EVEN MORE EAST
OF HERE. THEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ACTUALLY
RETROGRADES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
AT ALL SURPRISED IF WE WILL NEED TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
SUNDAYS HIGHS IF THE COOLER ECMWF IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT. BY
TUESDAY THE REVERSE HAPPENS...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MILDER WITH THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY THAN THE GFS WILL BE.
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THE GFS MAY BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION
AS ONCE THESE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THEY USUALLY DO NOT DISAPPEAR AS FAST AS
THE ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED. THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS
ON TUESDAY. LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS NOT SEEING A LOT IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010344
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010344
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH THE EARLIER STRONG SHORT WAVE LONG GONE TO THE NORTH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY SOLIDIFY AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE BROKEN UP
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SOLIDIFY...BUT
EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE WILL GET IT. WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE 1K FOOT
IFR/MVFR LINE. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE KEPT THE FOG OUT
BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. A COMBINATION OF HEATING WITH
SOME DRYING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z
PERIOD. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 02/06Z.

 MVFR...BARELY...TAKING THEM
DOWN TO OR CLOSE TO 1K FEET. HOWEVER...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINGERING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THRU 12Z.
OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MN AND IA LOOKS SET TO BACK UP
SLOWLY WEST WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SOLIDIFYING IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT
RANGE. THIS SHOULD SOLIDIFY THE LOW CLOUD DECK AT FSD AND SUX
BEFORE 03Z...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...PRECEDED BY VFR...LIKELY
GETTING INTO HON FOR A FEW HOURS ABOUT 09Z. THIS BACKING UP OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE STALLING OF THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD
UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. A COMBINATION OF WARMING WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BACK TO VFR DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PER THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IS
LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHWARD. WITH RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE DRY SLOT. DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF
CUMULUS CAN GET GOING FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS SMALL CORRIDOR WHERE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS - MAINLY IN
BEADLE...SANBORN AND JERAULD COUNTIES - LOW TOPPED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR AND GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR THE BOUNDARIES/TRIPLE POINT
PARTICULARLY...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...WITH SUCH A NARROW AREA OF CONCERN...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
COUNTIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS WORKING INTO GREGORY...CM AND BRULE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERLAIN GUSTED TO 44 MPH
EARLIER...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH
CONVERGENCE OR SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY START OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF....GFS
AND GEM...WITH THE 12Z NAM AN OUTLIER. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ADJUSTING UP IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. MAINLY EXPECTING JUST RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO WINDOM LINE...WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...LOWERED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH 60S EXPECTED.

ONE MORE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND REMAIN STRONG INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS FAVOR THE MORE SIMILAR
ECMWF...GEM AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS SET UP...BUT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD
BE MET OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER...WILL HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...WILL RESULT IN AN UNPLEASANT FRIDAY.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY THINKING WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY TANKING...AND THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO LOW.
EITHER WAY 30S ARE LIKELY...BUT ASSUMING WINDS STAY UP...MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT FREEZING...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE RIDGING SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN. ALTHOUGH A FEW WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS. THIS MEANS THAT
WARMING WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH SATURDAY IN THE
50S AND 60S...AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST GETS.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN STREAMING ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THIS
AREA...IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS CLEARING WILL
PUSH. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS IN KFSD
AND KSUX THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
EASTWARD PUSH...COULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT SOONER...OR PERHAPS A
SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD BUT CONCERNS FOR TSRA ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. IN THE KHON AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES...SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOP OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND 21Z TO 03Z. WILL LEAVE IN TEMPO MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301754
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO
TRUDGE EASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
COOL IN AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS RAIN BAND. CLEARING HAS BROKEN OUT
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MARKEDLY DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S STREAMING INTO THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SYSTEM.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER WESTERN SD IS LIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY. WITH THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...SEVERE CHANCES ARE
QUICKLY WANING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST INSTABILITY AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO JERAULD...BEADLE
AND SANBORNE COUNTIES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIPLE POINT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO
DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN THIS AREA...SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY END BEHIND THE
ONGOING RAIN BAND.

ALSO CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OF 36 KT NOTED IN AINSWORTH NEB. MAIN CONCERN IS GREGORY AND BRULE
COUNTY...BUT IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY...THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN STREAMING ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THIS
AREA...IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS CLEARING WILL
PUSH. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS IN KFSD
AND KSUX THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
EASTWARD PUSH...COULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT SOONER...OR PERHAPS A
SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD BUT CONCERNS FOR TSRA ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. IN THE KHON AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES...SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOP OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND 21Z TO 03Z. WILL LEAVE IN TEMPO MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND FOR THE
KHON...KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. BUT CONVERSELY...CONFIDENCE IS
SHAKY AT BEST WITH THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS INVOLVING EXACT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRATUS POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...MANY OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...RAP AND GFS HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BASED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE NO STRATUS EXISTS.
THAT SAID...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TON OF STRATUS IN THE IFR AND LIFR
CATEGORIES INCHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO ABUNDANT IN SOUTHERN IOWA SO ONE
WOULD THINK THAT SOONER OR LATER...THIS WOULD ENCROACH INTO THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. MIXING THIS MORNING MAY NUDGE THE STRATUS
UP INTO THE VERY LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AND KFSD AND KSUX TAFS UPDATED WHEN NEEDED.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIP TREND FOR KFSD AND KSUX IS SIMILAR BECAUSE
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN/THUNDER BAND IS SIMILAR FOR THE TWO SITES.
TONIGHT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS MAY HANG ON FOR
KFSD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD BREAK OUT AT KSUX BEING
FURTHER SOUTH.

KHON IS ALSO TRICKY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MVFR STRATUS...
BORDERLINE IFR...WILL DEVELOP FOR KHON BY AROUND 15Z. SPOTTY
STRATUS DOES EXIST CURRENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL SD BUT IS HARD TO SEE
DUE TO THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST CONCERNING
FOR KHON HOWEVER IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT.
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301142
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND FOR THE
KHON...KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. BUT CONVERSELY...CONFIDENCE IS
SHAKY AT BEST WITH THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS INVOLVING EXACT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND STRATUS POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...MANY OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...RAP AND GFS HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BASED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE NO STRATUS EXISTS.
THAT SAID...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TON OF STRATUS IN THE IFR AND LIFR
CATEGORIES INCHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO ABUNDANT IN SOUTHERN IOWA SO ONE
WOULD THINK THAT SOONER OR LATER...THIS WOULD ENCROACH INTO THE
KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. MIXING THIS MORNING MAY NUDGE THE STRATUS
UP INTO THE VERY LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT IT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AND KFSD AND KSUX TAFS UPDATED WHEN NEEDED.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIP TREND FOR KFSD AND KSUX IS SIMILAR BECAUSE
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN/THUNDER BAND IS SIMILAR FOR THE TWO SITES.
TONIGHT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS MAY HANG ON FOR
KFSD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD BREAK OUT AT KSUX BEING
FURTHER SOUTH.

KHON IS ALSO TRICKY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MVFR STRATUS...
BORDERLINE IFR...WILL DEVELOP FOR KHON BY AROUND 15Z. SPOTTY
STRATUS DOES EXIST CURRENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL SD BUT IS HARD TO SEE
DUE TO THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST CONCERNING
FOR KHON HOWEVER IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT.
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300848
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SD TODAY...BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW IS FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT JUTTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF IT...EXPECTING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE AREA TO FOCUS ON IS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT...AND THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE IT HAS IT NAILED
ENCOMPASSING THE JAMES AND VERMILLION RIVER VALLEYS... WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST
IS EXACT TIMING WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. NOT AT ALL
CONVINCED THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...NOT TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR. OVERALL...CAPES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ARE ALSO THIN. BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...WHEN THE UPPER LOW
IS IN WEST CENTRAL SD...A SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
THE WAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AS BY 21Z
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COULD TAP INTO THE 0-1KM WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXTREMELY STRONG.
IN FACT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 250 IN THOSE AREAS...
JUXTAPOSED WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY OF ELEVATED MU CAPE IN THE
925-850MB LAYER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...WHICH FINALLY NOSES
NORTHWARD. IF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE JAMES VALLEY AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR THE VERMILLION RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY BE WINDS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. EVEN AT JUST 925MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE
AVERAGING 30 KNOTS TODAY...COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK OF 65 TO 75
KNOTS NUDGING UP INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT TO PUSH SEVERE WIND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT.

AND SPEAKING OF STOUT WINDS...IT WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES TODAY NEAR THE DRY SLOT. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MIXING POTENTIAL. BUT IF THAT AREA
MIXES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS COULD BE
OBTAINED IN AND CLOSE TO THE LOWER BRULE AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PROBLEMATIC...TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF LATE DAY CLOUD COVER.
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY STAY IN THE
60S WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST. MID 70S ARE LIKELY IN
THE DRY SLOT. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FAST WITH LOWS
STILL PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REALLY NEVER IS A
WIND SHIFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. BUT RAIN COULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VERY ACTIVE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...THOUGH THAT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST.
OVERALL...THINK THE STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT...AND AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  INTERESTING SET UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONVERGENCE IS NOT THAT STRONG WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT
...BUT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE SET UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE DOWNRIGHT WINDS DAY THOUGH AS 925 HPA WINDS RUN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KNOTS.  HAVE INCREASED WINDS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES AS WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  DESPITE THE MIXY CONDITIONS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...GUIDANCE VALUES STILL LOOKED TO WARM BASED ON TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY DROP DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR A BIT
BEFORE BECOMING OVERCAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LINEAR BAND OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED THUNDER WITHIN THIS RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER RAIN PASSES. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STRATUS FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A RESIDUAL
PATCH DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY FLOW
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS. EXPECT THAT AREA JUST
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE POOLING WOULD BE SOURCE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...STARTING NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LINED UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS REALLY HAVE SLOWED UP APPROACH OF CONVECTION...AND SEEMS
TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH SO BASED ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE SOME SLOWING OF NET PROPAGATION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE
EAST...BUT AFTER INITIAL LINE PERHAPS WEAKENS A BIT...SECONDARY
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIP DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING ALONG ADVANCING
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE BOOSTED LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
POPS A BIT AS AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST GOING OUT LATER
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND IF CAN GET
CEILINGS CAN BREAK OUT BEHIND CONVECTION AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN THIS CASE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SOME
LOWER TOPPED VARIETY WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT TOWARD K9V9-KHON AXIS
WOULD BE OF GREATER INTEREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS DISSOLVING BY MID-AFTN. SHORT TERM MODELS
DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE...BUT IN GENERAL
ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT. THESE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LINEAR BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FEEL
THE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THIS RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS MAY TRY TO LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CLEARING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS DISSOLVING BY MID-AFTN. SHORT TERM MODELS
DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE...BUT IN GENERAL
ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT. THESE
CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LINEAR BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FEEL
THE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THIS RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS MAY TRY TO LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CLEARING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292027
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292027
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS STILL AROUND TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SOUTH ALL THE WAY
TO SUX/SLB WHERE THEY WERE AVOIDED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY SOLID BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
FURTHER EAST IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS PER CONSISTENT
SPC OUTLOOKS. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE KEPT PRETTY HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTED SOLID NATURE OF THE INITIAL BAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT UNLESS THE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCES DECENT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN IN THAT
CASE...THE LIKELY DECENT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP HOLD THE MAX
POTENTIAL DOWN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TAMELY TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OF COURSE KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWN
TUESDAY...THOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY RESULT IN
BETTER WARMING THERE. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL ON HIGHS WITH MAV
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.

WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN THE WEST CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OUT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND DEEP SHORT WAVE EMERGES IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO SETTLE INTO TO REGION.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR 70...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...LIGHT RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
60S ON THURSDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE GFS DROPS A
MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND STALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
VALUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  SIOUX CITY WAS A REAL TOUGH
CALL...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AIRPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SIDED WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
THERE.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOCUSES TO THE WEST.  COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WORK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION REMAINING FAIRLY CONTAINED...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 12Z. ATMOSPHERE IS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE...BUT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING/THUNDER TO BE VERY
LIMITED. WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH AND WINDS INCREASING AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHRUNK DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STRONG UPPER LOW WITH ATTENDANT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY FROM 18Z TO 03Z...WHERE IT EXITS
SOUTHWEST MN.

AT THIS TIME...AGREE WITH THE SPC SECOND DAY OUTLOOK IN GIVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE GENERALLY FROM I 29 AND WESTWARD. EAST
OF I 29...STABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE AND THE SHORT WAVE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT ALONG AND
WEST OF I 29...DECENT CURVATURE EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW
800MB...SO IF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAN TIE INTO THE SURFACE OR
BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY COULD GO SEVERE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE BIGGEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN TERMS OF WIND. BOTH MIXED
LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALOFT ARE RATHER THIN AND NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...
ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT WHICH WILL
RESIDE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL SD. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE AVERAGING NEAR 30 KNOTS
FROM I 29 TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS
AT 500MB IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHERMORE...DECENT JET STREAK MOVES
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OF 75 KNOTS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG 1.5 PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. IF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONGEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESIDE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...
AS THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS WELL TO THE
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EAST OF I 29
WILL EXHIBIT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AIDING STABILITY AS WELL AS THE
SHORT WAVE TIMING MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS WELL AFTER DARK.

TUESDAY WILL OF COURSE BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHO MAY GET WARMER IF MORE CLEARING BREAKS OUT IN
THE DRY SLOT THAN ANTICIPATED. POPS ARE STILL LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST
MN...BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD
IN THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD ON
TUESDAY IS A DISTANT MEMORY AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. HOWEVER MORE UPPER TROUGHING DIGS IN THE ROCKIES KEEPING
AN UNSTABLE UPPER FLOW GOING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP IN NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD TO MARSHALL
MN LINE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO NUDGING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STABILITY IS GREATLY INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST IA
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...BUT COOLER IN OUR WEST WHERE THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE
NEAR CHAMBERLAIN WHEN COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT GOING ON IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO ONE MORE DAY
OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES IS DOABLE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHTS CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WINDY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
925-850MB TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOKED WARM...SO BLENDED SOME CONSENSUS RAW VALUES
INTO THE MIX AS THE RAW VALUES ARE QUITE CHILLY BUT SEEM
REASONABLE. PREFER TO KEEP THE HIGHS ONLY 55 TO 60 FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON STRATUS POTENTIAL...FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW AND
CHILLY DAY...COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291735
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND STALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WILL BE A REAL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
VALUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  SIOUX CITY WAS A REAL TOUGH
CALL...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AIRPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SIDED WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
THERE.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOCUSES TO THE WEST.  COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WORK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION REMAINING FAIRLY CONTAINED...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 12Z. ATMOSPHERE IS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE...BUT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING/THUNDER TO BE VERY
LIMITED. WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH AND WINDS INCREASING AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHRUNK DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STRONG UPPER LOW WITH ATTENDANT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY FROM 18Z TO 03Z...WHERE IT EXITS
SOUTHWEST MN.

AT THIS TIME...AGREE WITH THE SPC SECOND DAY OUTLOOK IN GIVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE GENERALLY FROM I 29 AND WESTWARD. EAST
OF I 29...STABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE AND THE SHORT WAVE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT ALONG AND
WEST OF I 29...DECENT CURVATURE EXISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW
800MB...SO IF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAN TIE INTO THE SURFACE OR
BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY COULD GO SEVERE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE BIGGEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN TERMS OF WIND. BOTH MIXED
LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALOFT ARE RATHER THIN AND NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...
ANTICIPATING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT WHICH WILL
RESIDE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL SD. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE AVERAGING NEAR 30 KNOTS
FROM I 29 TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS
AT 500MB IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHERMORE...DECENT JET STREAK MOVES
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OF 75 KNOTS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG 1.5 PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. IF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONGEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESIDE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...
AS THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS WELL TO THE
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EAST OF I 29
WILL EXHIBIT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AIDING STABILITY AS WELL AS THE
SHORT WAVE TIMING MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS WELL AFTER DARK.

TUESDAY WILL OF COURSE BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHO MAY GET WARMER IF MORE CLEARING BREAKS OUT IN
THE DRY SLOT THAN ANTICIPATED. POPS ARE STILL LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST
MN...BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD
IN THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD ON
TUESDAY IS A DISTANT MEMORY AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. HOWEVER MORE UPPER TROUGHING DIGS IN THE ROCKIES KEEPING
AN UNSTABLE UPPER FLOW GOING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP IN NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD TO MARSHALL
MN LINE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO NUDGING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STABILITY IS GREATLY INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST IA
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...BUT COOLER IN OUR WEST WHERE THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE
NEAR CHAMBERLAIN WHEN COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT GOING ON IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO ONE MORE DAY
OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES IS DOABLE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHTS CANADIAN COLD
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WINDY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
925-850MB TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOKED WARM...SO BLENDED SOME CONSENSUS RAW VALUES
INTO THE MIX AS THE RAW VALUES ARE QUITE CHILLY BUT SEEM
REASONABLE. PREFER TO KEEP THE HIGHS ONLY 55 TO 60 FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON STRATUS POTENTIAL...FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE THE RAW AND
CHILLY DAY...COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NORTH AND WEST OF YKN/SLB LINE CEILINGS GENERALLY 1-3K FEET...WITH
A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN
FOG SOUTHWEST OF 9V9/PKS LINE. THROUGH 30/00Z A FEW AREAS WILL GO
TO VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 1-3K FEET...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AGAIN AFTER 30/00Z. SOUTH OF YKN/SLB LINE INCLUDING KSUX TAF SITE
VFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN CEILINGS 1-3K FEET DEVELOPING. AFTER 30/08Z
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 30/18Z...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 3-5SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





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