Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KFSD 281745
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY FOR KSUX THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OFF THE NORTH EDGE OF SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWARD...SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR BROKEN CEILINGS. REMAINS
TO BE SEEN IF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL SURVIVE AS FULL
FLEDGED CEILINGS ADVECTING TOWARD KHON AND EVENTUALLY KFSD LATER
IN THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP FROM A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281745
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY FOR KSUX THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OFF THE NORTH EDGE OF SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWARD...SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR BROKEN CEILINGS. REMAINS
TO BE SEEN IF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL SURVIVE AS FULL
FLEDGED CEILINGS ADVECTING TOWARD KHON AND EVENTUALLY KFSD LATER
IN THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP FROM A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281745
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY FOR KSUX THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OFF THE NORTH EDGE OF SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWARD...SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR BROKEN CEILINGS. REMAINS
TO BE SEEN IF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL SURVIVE AS FULL
FLEDGED CEILINGS ADVECTING TOWARD KHON AND EVENTUALLY KFSD LATER
IN THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP FROM A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281745
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY FOR KSUX THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OFF THE NORTH EDGE OF SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWARD...SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR BROKEN CEILINGS. REMAINS
TO BE SEEN IF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL SURVIVE AS FULL
FLEDGED CEILINGS ADVECTING TOWARD KHON AND EVENTUALLY KFSD LATER
IN THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP FROM A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN MVFR STRATUS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING STATUS OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN MVFR STRATUS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING STATUS OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281026
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281026
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281026
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281026
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA...TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE...IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AND MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR ON A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. MIXY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S-LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW...THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH
WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL HANG ON TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH MAY NOT HAVE QUITE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP BY THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS STRONGER
TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO OUR EASTERN CWA FROM SURFACE LOW
KICKING OUT OF COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS REMAINS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...BRINGING THE WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
SCENARIO OUT...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH KEEPING TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WILL STICK WITH
JUST SNOW AT THIS RANGE. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER THOUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 00Z GFS
IS OVERALL WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM AND OPTED TO ERR TOWARD THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR NOW. THIS STILL LEADS TO
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME.

GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...BUT GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THIS WILL BE SEEN
VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WILL
LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON TUESDAY...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
AREA WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY.

ARCTIC AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMER AIR THEN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
COVER FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH EVEN THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT MVFR MIGHT
NOT EVEN FORM AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...NOTING A DECENT SOUTH
BREEZE TO HELP KEEP THE AIR SLIGHTLY MIXED. THE QUESTION BEGINS
ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP WITH A SHORT WAVE.
THE NAM AS USUAL SHOWS ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BY 18Z SATURDAY WHICH IS LIKELY NOT REAL.
THE NAM HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS THE ENTIRE WINTER. THEREFORE OPTED
TO USE THE GFS WHICH SHOWS KFSD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE SOME MVFR STRATUS. FOR NOW...KEPT KFSD JUST INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE SHORT
WAVE. SIOUX CITY WILL LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS THE GFS IS
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS FOR THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WILL HAVE TO UPDATE LOWS FOR SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IOWA TO AROUND
8 BELOW AND 5 BELOW RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD THEN BOTTOM
OUT AND BEGIN TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOWS STILL LOOK VERY
CLOSE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO STEADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272045
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272045
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272045
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272045
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HOW FAST CLOUDS RETURN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SNOW IN NW BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
HAVE TO COME FROM KS AND WRN NE. IT WILL ALSO MEANS A INCREASE IN
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP INTO SW MN. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE BUFFALO RIDGE EXPECT ENHANCED SW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE TO AFFECT MARSHALL AND TRACY BY
LATE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP...EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. AS FOR LOWS...IT WILL BE
CONTEST BETWEEN INCREASING WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. EAST OF
I29...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD WIN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. FARTHER
WEST...INCREASING FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW RISE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...WITH MANY PLACE
ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

A DISORGANIZED WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY AND THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A 700 MB FRONT WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN I80 AND
HWY 20. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SO
EXPECT THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THICKENING
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR SUX AND SLB LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
HIGHS...AN APPROACHING FRONT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING WARM
AIR WEST OF I29. AND WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I29.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS JUST A BIT OF
AN UP TICK IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SWOOPS IN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE AS WINDS COULD BE A BIT FLAKY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY MILD
DAY...STILL BELOW NORMAL...THEN COLDER AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 20S...SOME 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW MARGINAL
AGREEMENT AND THE MODELS FIGHT OVER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS
HAVE COME UP AND LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD SO WILL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS AND IF AGREEMENT INCREASES
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE HINT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NOT AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION JUST SNOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT COLDER AND DRIER BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW PUSH SOUTH. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A BROAD LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY WHICH
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY/MELTING
DAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH TEMPERATURES. THE REAL WARMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER THIS ANYWAY SO WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH THAT COULD ADVECT SOUTH AND THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWS THAT EVEN THE COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF RUNS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL SO VIRTUALLY ALL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
533 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. REUTRN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. REUTRN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270449
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. REUTRN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
538 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECAYS WITH SUNSET. SUFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. REUTRN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

DEVELOPING STRATOCU HAS BECOME BROKEN MVFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARDS SUNSET
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

DEVELOPING STRATOCU HAS BECOME BROKEN MVFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARDS SUNSET
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

DEVELOPING STRATOCU HAS BECOME BROKEN MVFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARDS SUNSET
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262135
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...RESULTING IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SCATTERED FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
THUS PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GOT COLDER THAN
FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS SLACKED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
DECOUPLING. TRICKY LOW FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RADIATING...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. THUS WENT COLDER THAN CONSENSUS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
THIS RESULTS IN READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN OUR SNOW
COVERED AREAS...AND -5 TO -10 TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LESS. PROBABLY WILL SEE A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA DROP EVEN A BIT LOWER THAN
-15. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT BREEZE AT ALL WILL PUSH READINGS TO
AROUND -25.

ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW COVER
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DO NOT SUPPORT GOOD
MIXING. THUS THINKING WE ONLY SEE LOW TO MID TEENS IN OUR EAST. OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE LESS
OR NO SNOW COVER...SO THINKING LOW TO MID 20S FROM YANKTON TO
MITCHELL AND POINTS WEST. SIGNAL FOR STRATOCU SEEMS LESS
TOMORROW...SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY...ALTHOUGH AN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SET UP. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERSION COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN STIR THINGS UP
SO FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IN THE EAST AND NEAR 10 ABOVE IN CENTRAL
SD.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE THREAT FOR SNOW WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A MARGINALLY CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STILL SOME STRONG
HINTS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL AIM THE
HIGHEST POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IF WE END UP GETTING A SWATH OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS HINTS ARE THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS VERIFIES. SO
OVERALL A LOT OF OPEN ENDED POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND DIFFICULT TO LEAN
IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

DEVELOPING STRATOCU HAS BECOME BROKEN MVFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARDS SUNSET
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

DEVELOPING STRATOCU HAS BECOME BROKEN MVFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARDS SUNSET
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LEAVE SCATTERED MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LEAVE SCATTERED MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LEAVE SCATTERED MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LEAVE SCATTERED MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260930
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL DRIVEL CLOUDS
COULD APPROACH BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260930
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL DRIVEL CLOUDS
COULD APPROACH BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260453
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL DRIVEL CLOUDS
COULD APPROACH BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
     052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260453
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL DRIVEL CLOUDS
COULD APPROACH BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
     052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260453
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL DRIVEL CLOUDS
COULD APPROACH BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
     052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AND PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSIDERED GOING BROKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST MVFR CONDITION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
QUITE YET. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A CEILING...SHOULD BE A THIN
LAYER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AND PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSIDERED GOING BROKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST MVFR CONDITION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
QUITE YET. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A CEILING...SHOULD BE A THIN
LAYER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AND PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSIDERED GOING BROKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST MVFR CONDITION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
QUITE YET. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A CEILING...SHOULD BE A THIN
LAYER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AND PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONSIDERED GOING BROKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST MVFR CONDITION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
QUITE YET. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A CEILING...SHOULD BE A THIN
LAYER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF
VIS IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL ON
THE TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR...WITH SOME MODELS DEVELOPING MORE
STRATUS. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM VFR OBS WENT OPTIMISTIC IN THE
TAFS...AND TAKE THINGS VFR PRETTY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONE LAST AREA OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WILL SEE A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST WITH THIS...SO
A MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. ALREADY SEEING SOME
CLEARING WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTHERLY BREEZE STAYING UP WILL KEEP US MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT OF TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE WIND AND EXPECTING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. THUS
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WHERE READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

SLOW WARMING ON THURSDAY...SO WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH
18Z. EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH DID BUMP THEM UP A BIT...MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SIGNS THAT SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP MAKING IT PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE LATEST ARCTIC HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO WITH LOWS 17 BELOW EAST TO 6 BELOW SOUTHWEST. WINDS FOR ONCE
ARE GOING TO DROP LOW ENOUGH...TO NEAR CALM...TO MAKE THE WIND CHILL
A NON FACTOR...IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN COLD.

SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MOSTLY THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FSD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND FOLLOWING SURFACE
HIGH WILL SUPPRESS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
COOLING ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LAG IN SURFACE WARMING
SATURDAY...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME.

THE MORE INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVE/S EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW POSITION
BRING A SNOW THREAT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RETURNS TO PRIME
POSITION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT SNOW
BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE EC IS COMING AROUND TO SOMETHING CLOSER
THAN WAS ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET SUGGEST
SOME SNOW POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS LATER TIMING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO NEED TO PUT MUCH FAITH IN THE SMALLER
DETAILS 5 TO 6 DAYS AHEAD. ANYWAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SET UP A VERY GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATELY COLD...WITH READING WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL A FEW WEEKS AGO BUT WOULD BE ON
THE OTHER SIDE NOW AS WE APPROACH MARCH.

WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IDEA OF DRY AND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY...COUNTING ON ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER ACTION TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF
VIS IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. TOUGH CALL ON
THE TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR...WITH SOME MODELS DEVELOPING MORE
STRATUS. HOWEVER BASED ON UPSTREAM VFR OBS WENT OPTIMISTIC IN THE
TAFS...AND TAKE THINGS VFR PRETTY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities