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000
FXUS63 KFSD 310349
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD LATER ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EFFECTING THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310349
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD LATER ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EFFECTING THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AND ALSO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AND ALSO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE...BUT SHOULD FALL APART WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX OUT...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT. THIS MAY
IMPACT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH EXPECT COVEREAGE TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE NOT WORKED INTO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE...BUT SHOULD FALL APART WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX OUT...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT. THIS MAY
IMPACT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH EXPECT COVEREAGE TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE NOT WORKED INTO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE...BUT SHOULD FALL APART WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX OUT...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT. THIS MAY
IMPACT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH EXPECT COVEREAGE TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE NOT WORKED INTO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301904
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE...BUT SHOULD FALL APART WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX OUT...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT. THIS MAY
IMPACT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH EXPECT COVEREAGE TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE NOT WORKED INTO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH STRATUS ENCOMPASSING TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAKE DECREASE IN STRATUS SOMEWHAT A DIFFICULT PROSPECT...
AND HAVE GONE A BIT SLOWER DECREASE THAN SLOWEST MODEL FOR KFSD...AND
CLOSER TO SLOWER RAP FOR KHON AND KSUX NEARER THE EDGE OF THE FIELD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH STRATUS ENCOMPASSING TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAKE DECREASE IN STRATUS SOMEWHAT A DIFFICULT PROSPECT...
AND HAVE GONE A BIT SLOWER DECREASE THAN SLOWEST MODEL FOR KFSD...AND
CLOSER TO SLOWER RAP FOR KHON AND KSUX NEARER THE EDGE OF THE FIELD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300937
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

06Z TAFS WILL LIKELY REFLECT SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST SD AND EASTERN ND HAS
QUITE A BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE STRATUS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ADVECT SOUTHWARD. THE
LATEST NAM HAS A GOOD REFLECTION ON THIS...SO BASED THE CEILINGS
ON TIMING FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KHON AND
KFSD WILL RECEIVE MVFR STRATUS...BUT BECAUSE OF THIS...AND COUPLED
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION
MAY BE HELD AT BAY. KSUX IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM DOES NOT
BRING THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT SIOUX CITY. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THEN BELIEVE THAT KSUX HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KFSD AND KHON OF RECEIVING FOG. SO KEPT SOME IFR MENTION OF FOG
GOING FOR THAT LOCATION NEAR SUNRISE. NOTICED THAT TEKEMAH
NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH IS ALREADY JUST OVER A MILE IN VISIBILITY.
THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVECT OUT...AND ALSO MIX OUT OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300937
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN WEST CENTRAL
MN HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SW MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW
WATCHING MASS OF STRATUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THIS STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE
PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ERODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PERSISTENT EAST...STYMIED BY FAIRLY WEAK FLOW TOWARD I29 AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD SEE A BETTER DECREASING TREND BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO MID 80S WEST.

HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO NUDGE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES TO
THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY OFF SURFACE
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING...VEERING
TOWARD THE FSD CWA BY THE FINAL HALF OF THE NIGHT. AIR AT THIS LEVEL
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCE COMING MORE ALOFT NEAR OR
ABOVE 700 HPA. ALL PRECIP TONIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DRIER LAYER BELOW. AS INITIAL PV LOBE LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE AT LEAST A LOWER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT CERTAINLY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...AND WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH. SHADED THE HIGHEST CHANCE BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NAM SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER IN PATTERN TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION, SO HAVE LARGELY FAVORED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WITH
THIS...ANTICIPATE ANY EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA/DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS ONE OF
MANY WAVES SLIDES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT ON BROAD SCALE SHOULD SEE COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN CWA BY MIDDAY...WITH WARM FRONT LOCATION A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. PREFERRED MODELS POINT TO STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT MIDDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+KT AND MUCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKENING BUT
STILL EXISTENT CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850MB AT KSUX AND OTHER
POINTS IN OUR CWA AT 21Z...BUT THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD HELP
OVERCOME THIS...WITH THE CAP ALLOWING FOR MORE DISCRETE INITIAL
CELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE TIME OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL... WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALL POSSIBLE.

THEREAFTER SYSTEM SHOULD CONGEAL INTO PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO EXPECTED PROGRESSIVENESS OF SYSTEM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS...BUT
ISOLATED MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PROVIDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
ECMWF/GEM BOTH SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FAIR CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING AN INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

06Z TAFS WILL LIKELY REFLECT SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST SD AND EASTERN ND HAS
QUITE A BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE STRATUS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ADVECT SOUTHWARD. THE
LATEST NAM HAS A GOOD REFLECTION ON THIS...SO BASED THE CEILINGS
ON TIMING FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KHON AND
KFSD WILL RECEIVE MVFR STRATUS...BUT BECAUSE OF THIS...AND COUPLED
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION
MAY BE HELD AT BAY. KSUX IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM DOES NOT
BRING THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT SIOUX CITY. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THEN BELIEVE THAT KSUX HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KFSD AND KHON OF RECEIVING FOG. SO KEPT SOME IFR MENTION OF FOG
GOING FOR THAT LOCATION NEAR SUNRISE. NOTICED THAT TEKEMAH
NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH IS ALREADY JUST OVER A MILE IN VISIBILITY.
THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVECT OUT...AND ALSO MIX OUT OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

06Z TAFS WILL LIKELY REFLECT SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST SD AND EASTERN ND HAS
QUITE A BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE STRATUS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ADVECT SOUTHWARD. THE
LATEST NAM HAS A GOOD REFLECTION ON THIS...SO BASED THE CEILINGS
ON TIMING FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KHON AND
KFSD WILL RECEIVE MVFR STRATUS...BUT BECAUSE OF THIS...AND COUPLED
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION
MAY BE HELD AT BAY. KSUX IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM DOES NOT
BRING THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT SIOUX CITY. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THEN BELIEVE THAT KSUX HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KFSD AND KHON OF RECEIVING FOG. SO KEPT SOME IFR MENTION OF FOG
GOING FOR THAT LOCATION NEAR SUNRISE. NOTICED THAT TECHAMEH
NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH IS ALREADY JUST OVER A MILE IN VISIBILITY.
THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVECT OUT...AND ALSO MIX OUT OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

06Z TAFS WILL LIKELY REFLECT SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATUS MOVING IN
FROM NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST SD AND EASTERN ND HAS
QUITE A BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS...AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE STRATUS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ADVECT SOUTHWARD. THE
LATEST NAM HAS A GOOD REFLECTION ON THIS...SO BASED THE CEILINGS
ON TIMING FROM THE 00Z NAM MODEL. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KHON AND
KFSD WILL RECEIVE MVFR STRATUS...BUT BECAUSE OF THIS...AND COUPLED
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION
MAY BE HELD AT BAY. KSUX IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM DOES NOT
BRING THE STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO AFFECT SIOUX CITY. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THEN BELIEVE THAT KSUX HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KFSD AND KHON OF RECEIVING FOG. SO KEPT SOME IFR MENTION OF FOG
GOING FOR THAT LOCATION NEAR SUNRISE. NOTICED THAT TECHAMEH
NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH IS ALREADY JUST OVER A MILE IN VISIBILITY.
THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVECT OUT...AND ALSO MIX OUT OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300253
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
953 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD IN EASTERN ND JUST BEHIND A SHORT WAVE.
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NUDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE
AFFECT OF PROBABLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT COULD AT THE SAME
TIME KEEP MUCH OF THE FOG AT BAY...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR. FUTURE TAFS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IDEA OF BRINGING IN
MVFR CLOUDS...BUT IMPROVING THE VISIBILITIES. MAY AMEND SOON
BEFORE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...KSUX HAS A SMALL
PATCH OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER THEIR LOCATION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MASKING THIS SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS MAY
STICK AROUND.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300253
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
953 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD IN EASTERN ND JUST BEHIND A SHORT WAVE.
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NUDGE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE
AFFECT OF PROBABLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS...BUT COULD AT THE SAME
TIME KEEP MUCH OF THE FOG AT BAY...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR. FUTURE TAFS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IDEA OF BRINGING IN
MVFR CLOUDS...BUT IMPROVING THE VISIBILITIES. MAY AMEND SOON
BEFORE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO AT THIS TIME...KSUX HAS A SMALL
PATCH OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER THEIR LOCATION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MASKING THIS SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS MAY
STICK AROUND.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM FRIDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXHIBIT VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT
EARLY THIS EVENING IN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST
IA...WITH ALSO A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE
AFTER SUNSET. DID NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR KSUX...AND THE STORMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF
TIME. BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE TAF SITES DRY AFTER EVENING. THE
STORMS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL BE EAST OF KHON. LATER
TONIGHT...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL AND
GROUND MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD OCCUR DESPITE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THEY MAY NOT PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID SATURDAY MORNING...AND
AM ANTICIPATING VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM FRIDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXHIBIT VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT
EARLY THIS EVENING IN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST
IA...WITH ALSO A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE
AFTER SUNSET. DID NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR KSUX...AND THE STORMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAUSING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF
TIME. BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE TAF SITES DRY AFTER EVENING. THE
STORMS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL BE EAST OF KHON. LATER
TONIGHT...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL AND
GROUND MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD OCCUR DESPITE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THEY MAY NOT PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID SATURDAY MORNING...AND
AM ANTICIPATING VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292022
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A VARIETY OF AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...INITIALLY WITH AREAS OF
IFR-LIFR STRATUS ALONG AND WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KHON AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD TOWARD SWRN MN/NWRN IA
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE LOWER MVFR-IFR CEILINGS COULD IMPACT
KFSD/KSUX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING. HOWEVER GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO AT LEAST MVFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY IMPACT KSUX...
BUT MAY ALSO BRUSH KFSD FOR A FEW HOURS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY IN BR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292022
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARMED ABOVE
70 DEGREES.  INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND
THERE WAS ENOUGH VORTICITY STRETCHING IN THE 0 TO 3 KM COLUMN TO
CAUSE BRIEF FUNNELS TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.  HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF SUCH FUNNELS AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY.  THE THREAT FOR MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
NOT LINGER MUCH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS MAIN FRONT MOVES EAST...SO GOES THE STORM CHANCES AND ALSO AS
DUSK NEARS...STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO STORMS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST BY 06Z.

NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THAT AS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY...LOOKS A LOT BRIGHTER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS & FOG BURN OFF.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THE MODERATE LEVEL SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING STILL A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MORNING ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH COULD SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP AND SMALLER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUCH A STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FAIRLY HARD. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD...NOT GREAT BUT WITH
CAPES LIKELY AROUND 2500 J/KG ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS WELL AS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SOME SMALLER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FAIRLY WARM DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A VARIETY OF AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...INITIALLY WITH AREAS OF
IFR-LIFR STRATUS ALONG AND WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KHON AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD TOWARD SWRN MN/NWRN IA
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE LOWER MVFR-IFR CEILINGS COULD IMPACT
KFSD/KSUX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING. HOWEVER GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO AT LEAST MVFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY IMPACT KSUX...
BUT MAY ALSO BRUSH KFSD FOR A FEW HOURS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY IN BR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291159
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
659 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SEEING SPOTTY ACTIVITY...MAINLY SHOWERS...IN BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH EDGING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH EXTENDED FETCH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...SEE NO REASON WHY POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH AND WILL HOLD ONTO MID RANGE POPS
NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PUSH ONLY SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM NEAR JAMES VALLEY...TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP
LIFT AND MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE EAST
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT WARMING ACROSS THE EAST...AND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR GREATER HEATING. SUBTLE IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IN
OUR NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
FAR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME GIVEN MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST WHERE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF CLOUDS IS
GREATER.

NORTHWEST ACTIVITY COULD LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS
THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z. QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL CLEARING...AND WITH PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE IN WEAK WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL HAVE FULL HOLD ON SATURDAY BEHIND EXITING
SHORT WAVE. INITIALLY ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO STALL
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...OR MORE LIKELY JUST
SOUTH. WEAK FLOW OVERALL AND MOIST GROUND WILL LIMIT WARMING MOST
AREAS...BUT MORE LIKELY TO GET A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S WEST.

DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVERALL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE A BIT SLOWER... AND WILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR
TO DISPLACE WORKING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. DIV Q ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG JET STREAK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ONLY APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...AND APPEARS THAT ANY MEANINGFUL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS LATE NIGHT
ROUGHLY WEST OF A MARSHALL TO YANKTON LINE.

IF PRECIPITATION IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD ON EARLY SUNDAY...THIS
BECOMES A GREATER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN TERMS
OF A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...KNOCKING DOWN
THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT. WILL HAVE A VERY DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH QUESTION OF TIMING ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT. AS EXPECTED...NAM
AND GFS HAVE TRADED ROLES SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...WITH NAM
NOW THE SLOWEST...GFS AMONG QUICKEST...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SPREAD HAS DIMINISHED...AND UPPER PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR IF
SLOWING UP GFS ABOUT 3 HOURS. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL PARAMETERS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE WILL MEAN A SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED 0-1KM SHEAR...AS MUCH
AS 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR BOUNDARY AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A LOOK
BEFORE MODELS CONVECT...WOULD ALLOW PERHAPS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...
AND THIS MAY END UP EVEN A BIT HIGHER IF CAN KEEP CLOUD COVERAGE
DOWN A BIT MORE AND PRECIP FROM SPREADING EAST TOO QUICKLY.
ADMITTEDLY...SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OCCUR FOR
SOUTHERN CWA...AS UPPER JET PUSHES MORE STRONGLY TOWARD CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE LOCATION IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
POTENTIALLY RICHER INSTABILITY. STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL PUSH OUT
TOWARD THE FRONT TOWARD 00Z...SO WOULD EXPECT A FESTERING BOUNDARY
TO DEMONSTRATE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TOWARD 21-23Z. DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP ALL STORM MODES IN
PLAY...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL LINEAR STRUCTURE
GIVEN FORCING. HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A TORNADO THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM
NEAR I 29 AND EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. INTENSE RAIN RATES ALSO LIKELY WITH STORMS
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE/WARM PROFILES...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LINEAR
MODE TO KEEP TOTALS FROM BEING TOO EXCESSIVE. WHAT FALLS WILL DO
SO QUITE QUICKLY...HENCE AT LEAST A MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED EVEN THE EASTERN CWA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORCING SIGNATURE
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SIDED MUCH MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE RAW
MODEL DEWPOINTS...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN MIXED ENVIRONMENT. DID NOT
GO AS LOW AS MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD. QUICK MOVING
WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN CYCLONIC ZONAL PATTERN...KICKING UP
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A TOUCH...AND WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON
IN PLACE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPEEDING
THROUGH THE VICINITY.

FAIRLY QUIET IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDOW AS ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM QUICK MOVING WAVE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
PAST...WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGY FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LONGER WAVE TROUGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF BETTER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH ANOTHER ZONAL DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER...AT MINIMUM A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL START TO POOL SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE VERY WARM
LAYER ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG. ECMWF
INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE CROSSING RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND
MAY BE SLIGHTLY AGGRESSIVE DRIVING SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...WHEN COMPARING TO OTHER SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES...
SO HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW...AS PRECIPITATION WOULD EVEN
TEND TO FAVOR NORTH OF A SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DUE TO THE
VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A VARIETY OF AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...INITIALLY WITH AREAS OF
IFR-LIFR STRATUS ALONG AND WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KHON AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD TOWARD SWRN MN/NWRN IA
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE LOWER MVFR-IFR CEILINGS COULD IMPACT
KFSD/KSUX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING. HOWEVER GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO AT LEAST MVFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY IMPACT KSUX...
BUT MAY ALSO BRUSH KFSD FOR A FEW HOURS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LINGERING LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY IN BR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SEEING SPOTTY ACTIVITY...MAINLY SHOWERS...IN BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH EDGING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH EXTENDED FETCH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...SEE NO REASON WHY POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH AND WILL HOLD ONTO MID RANGE POPS
NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PUSH ONLY SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM NEAR JAMES VALLEY...TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP
LIFT AND MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE EAST
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT WARMING ACROSS THE EAST...AND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR GREATER HEATING. SUBTLE IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IN
OUR NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
FAR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME GIVEN MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST WHERE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF CLOUDS IS
GREATER.

NORTHWEST ACTIVITY COULD LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS
THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z. QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL CLEARING...AND WITH PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE IN WEAK WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL HAVE FULL HOLD ON SATURDAY BEHIND EXITING
SHORT WAVE. INITIALLY ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO STALL
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...OR MORE LIKELY JUST
SOUTH. WEAK FLOW OVERALL AND MOIST GROUND WILL LIMIT WARMING MOST
AREAS...BUT MORE LIKELY TO GET A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S WEST.

DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVERALL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE A BIT SLOWER... AND WILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR
TO DISPLACE WORKING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. DIV Q ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG JET STREAK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ONLY APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...AND APPEARS THAT ANY MEANINGFUL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS LATE NIGHT
ROUGHLY WEST OF A MARSHALL TO YANKTON LINE.

IF PRECIPITATION IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD ON EARLY SUNDAY...THIS
BECOMES A GREATER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN TERMS
OF A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...KNOCKING DOWN
THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT. WILL HAVE A VERY DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH QUESTION OF TIMING ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT. AS EXPECTED...NAM
AND GFS HAVE TRADED ROLES SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...WITH NAM
NOW THE SLOWEST...GFS AMONG QUICKEST...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SPREAD HAS DIMINISHED...AND UPPER PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR IF
SLOWING UP GFS ABOUT 3 HOURS. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL PARAMETERS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE WILL MEAN A SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED 0-1KM SHEAR...AS MUCH
AS 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR BOUNDARY AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A LOOK
BEFORE MODELS CONVECT...WOULD ALLOW PERHAPS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...
AND THIS MAY END UP EVEN A BIT HIGHER IF CAN KEEP CLOUD COVERAGE
DOWN A BIT MORE AND PRECIP FROM SPREADING EAST TOO QUICKLY.
ADMITTEDLY...SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OCCUR FOR
SOUTHERN CWA...AS UPPER JET PUSHES MORE STRONGLY TOWARD CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE LOCATION IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
POTENTIALLY RICHER INSTABILITY. STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL PUSH OUT
TOWARD THE FRONT TOWARD 00Z...SO WOULD EXPECT A FESTERING BOUNDARY
TO DEMONSTRATE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TOWARD 21-23Z. DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP ALL STORM MODES IN
PLAY...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL LINEAR STRUCTURE
GIVEN FORCING. HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A TORNADO THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM
NEAR I 29 AND EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. INTENSE RAIN RATES ALSO LIKELY WITH STORMS
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE/WARM PROFILES...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LINEAR
MODE TO KEEP TOTALS FROM BEING TOO EXCESSIVE. WHAT FALLS WILL DO
SO QUITE QUICKLY...HENCE AT LEAST A MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED EVEN THE EASTERN CWA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORCING SIGNATURE
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SIDED MUCH MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE RAW
MODEL DEWPOINTS...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN MIXED ENVIRONMENT. DID NOT
GO AS LOW AS MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD. QUICK MOVING
WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN CYCLONIC ZONAL PATTERN...KICKING UP
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A TOUCH...AND WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON
IN PLACE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPEEDING
THROUGH THE VICINITY.

FAIRLY QUIET IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDOW AS ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM QUICK MOVING WAVE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
PAST...WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGY FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LONGER WAVE TROUGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF BETTER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH ANOTHER ZONAL DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER...AT MINIMUM A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL START TO POOL SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE VERY WARM
LAYER ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG. ECMWF
INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE CROSSING RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND
MAY BE SLIGHTLY AGGRESSIVE DRIVING SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...WHEN COMPARING TO OTHER SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES...
SO HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW...AS PRECIPITATION WOULD EVEN
TEND TO FAVOR NORTH OF A SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DUE TO THE
VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLENTY OF CHALLENGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE KFSD TAF HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC ALL EVENING...IN THAT THE SITE HAS BEEN ON THE EDGE OF
LOWER END VFR...AND LIFR WHICH IS VERY WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EAST USHERING IN THE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM MN. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS NOW EXIST
THAT THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL...AND IN FACT ARE...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THAT COULD MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE CLOUD
CATEGORY FOR SIOUX FALLS AS NORTHWEST IA IS CURRENTLY LOWER END
VFR. FOR NOW...HEDGED THE KFSD TAF FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE MVFR
RANGE AND NOT IFR/LIFR. WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF IFR CEILINGS
STUBBORNLY HANG ON. AT ANY RATE...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL NEAR SUNRISE AS VERY MOIST AIR TRANSLATES INTO LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEGREE OF
DECENT MIX OUT RAISING THE CEILINGS BY FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE
LOWER END VFR RANGE.

LIFR AND IFR ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT KHON FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT THE VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO KFSD...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIFR ANYWAY. KHON SHOULD GO VFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO KFSD...BUT THEN A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY USHER IN SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.

KSUX WILL BE VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT AGAIN AM WORRIED WITH THE
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WET GROUND...THAT IFR/LIFR COULD
DEVELOP AT THIS SITE ALSO AROUND SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO KFSD AND
KHON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING INTO THE LOWER END VFR CATEGORY
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF SITES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...ONLY SHOWERS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
IN THIS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SEEING SPOTTY ACTIVITY...MAINLY SHOWERS...IN BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH EDGING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH EXTENDED FETCH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...SEE NO REASON WHY POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH AND WILL HOLD ONTO MID RANGE POPS
NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PUSH ONLY SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM NEAR JAMES VALLEY...TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP
LIFT AND MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE EAST
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT WARMING ACROSS THE EAST...AND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.

FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR GREATER HEATING. SUBTLE IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS IN
OUR NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
FAR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME GIVEN MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 70S EAST...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST WHERE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OUT OF CLOUDS IS
GREATER.

NORTHWEST ACTIVITY COULD LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS
THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z. QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL CLEARING...AND WITH PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE IN WEAK WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL HAVE FULL HOLD ON SATURDAY BEHIND EXITING
SHORT WAVE. INITIALLY ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH TO STALL
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...OR MORE LIKELY JUST
SOUTH. WEAK FLOW OVERALL AND MOIST GROUND WILL LIMIT WARMING MOST
AREAS...BUT MORE LIKELY TO GET A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S WEST.

DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVERALL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE A BIT SLOWER... AND WILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR
TO DISPLACE WORKING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. DIV Q ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG JET STREAK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ONLY APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...AND APPEARS THAT ANY MEANINGFUL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS LATE NIGHT
ROUGHLY WEST OF A MARSHALL TO YANKTON LINE.

IF PRECIPITATION IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD ON EARLY SUNDAY...THIS
BECOMES A GREATER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN TERMS
OF A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS...KNOCKING DOWN
THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT. WILL HAVE A VERY DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING EASTWARD...WITH QUESTION OF TIMING ALONG WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT. AS EXPECTED...NAM
AND GFS HAVE TRADED ROLES SOMEWHAT ON FRONTAL TIMING...WITH NAM
NOW THE SLOWEST...GFS AMONG QUICKEST...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SPREAD HAS DIMINISHED...AND UPPER PATTERNS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR IF
SLOWING UP GFS ABOUT 3 HOURS. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL PARAMETERS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE WILL MEAN A SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED 0-1KM SHEAR...AS MUCH
AS 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR BOUNDARY AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A LOOK
BEFORE MODELS CONVECT...WOULD ALLOW PERHAPS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...
AND THIS MAY END UP EVEN A BIT HIGHER IF CAN KEEP CLOUD COVERAGE
DOWN A BIT MORE AND PRECIP FROM SPREADING EAST TOO QUICKLY.
ADMITTEDLY...SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OCCUR FOR
SOUTHERN CWA...AS UPPER JET PUSHES MORE STRONGLY TOWARD CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE LOCATION IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
POTENTIALLY RICHER INSTABILITY. STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL PUSH OUT
TOWARD THE FRONT TOWARD 00Z...SO WOULD EXPECT A FESTERING BOUNDARY
TO DEMONSTRATE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TOWARD 21-23Z. DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP ALL STORM MODES IN
PLAY...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD AN EVENTUAL LINEAR STRUCTURE
GIVEN FORCING. HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A TORNADO THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM
NEAR I 29 AND EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA. INTENSE RAIN RATES ALSO LIKELY WITH STORMS
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE/WARM PROFILES...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT LINEAR
MODE TO KEEP TOTALS FROM BEING TOO EXCESSIVE. WHAT FALLS WILL DO
SO QUITE QUICKLY...HENCE AT LEAST A MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED EVEN THE EASTERN CWA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORCING SIGNATURE
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SIDED MUCH MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE RAW
MODEL DEWPOINTS...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN MIXED ENVIRONMENT. DID NOT
GO AS LOW AS MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD. QUICK MOVING
WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN CYCLONIC ZONAL PATTERN...KICKING UP
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE A TOUCH...AND WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON
IN PLACE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPEEDING
THROUGH THE VICINITY.

FAIRLY QUIET IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDOW AS ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM QUICK MOVING WAVE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
PAST...WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGY FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LONGER WAVE TROUGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF BETTER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH ANOTHER ZONAL DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER...AT MINIMUM A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL START TO POOL SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE VERY WARM
LAYER ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG. ECMWF
INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE CROSSING RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND
MAY BE SLIGHTLY AGGRESSIVE DRIVING SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD...WHEN COMPARING TO OTHER SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES...
SO HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW...AS PRECIPITATION WOULD EVEN
TEND TO FAVOR NORTH OF A SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DUE TO THE
VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLENTY OF CHALLENGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE KFSD TAF HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC ALL EVENING...IN THAT THE SITE HAS BEEN ON THE EDGE OF
LOWER END VFR...AND LIFR WHICH IS VERY WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EAST USHERING IN THE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM MN. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS NOW EXIST
THAT THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL...AND IN FACT ARE...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THAT COULD MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE CLOUD
CATEGORY FOR SIOUX FALLS AS NORTHWEST IA IS CURRENTLY LOWER END
VFR. FOR NOW...HEDGED THE KFSD TAF FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE MVFR
RANGE AND NOT IFR/LIFR. WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF IFR CEILINGS
STUBBORNLY HANG ON. AT ANY RATE...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL NEAR SUNRISE AS VERY MOIST AIR TRANSLATES INTO LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEGREE OF
DECENT MIX OUT RAISING THE CEILINGS BY FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE
LOWER END VFR RANGE.

LIFR AND IFR ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT KHON FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT THE VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO KFSD...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIFR ANYWAY. KHON SHOULD GO VFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO KFSD...BUT THEN A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY USHER IN SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.

KSUX WILL BE VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT AGAIN AM WORRIED WITH THE
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WET GROUND...THAT IFR/LIFR COULD
DEVELOP AT THIS SITE ALSO AROUND SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO KFSD AND
KHON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING INTO THE LOWER END VFR CATEGORY
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF SITES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...ONLY SHOWERS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
IN THIS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290507
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1207 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLENTY OF CHALLENGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE KFSD TAF HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC ALL EVENING...IN THAT THE SITE HAS BEEN ON THE EDGE OF
LOWER END VFR...AND LIFR WHICH IS VERY WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EAST USHERING IN THE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM MN. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS NOW EXIST
THAT THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL...AND IN FACT ARE...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THAT COULD MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE CLOUD
CATEGORY FOR SIOUX FALLS AS NORTHWEST IA IS CURRENTLY LOWER END
VFR. FOR NOW...HEDGED THE KFSD TAF FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE MVFR
RANGE AND NOT IFR/LIFR. WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF IFR CEILINGS
STUBBORNLY HANG ON. AT ANY RATE...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL NEAR SUNRISE AS VERY MOIST AIR TRANSLATES INTO LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEGREE OF
DECENT MIX OUT RAISING THE CEILINGS BY FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE
LOWER END VFR RANGE.

LIFR AND IFR ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT KHON FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT THE VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO KFSD...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIFR ANYWAY. KHON SHOULD GO VFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO KFSD...BUT THEN A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY USHER IN SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.

KSUX WILL BE VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT AGAIN AM WORRIED WITH THE
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WET GROUND...THAT IFR/LIFR COULD
DEVELOP AT THIS SITE ALSO AROUND SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO KFSD AND
KHON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING INTO THE LOWER END VFR CATEGORY
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF SITES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...ONLY SHOWERS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
IN THIS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290507
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1207 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLENTY OF CHALLENGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE KFSD TAF HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC ALL EVENING...IN THAT THE SITE HAS BEEN ON THE EDGE OF
LOWER END VFR...AND LIFR WHICH IS VERY WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EAST USHERING IN THE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM MN. HOWEVER SOME INDICATIONS NOW EXIST
THAT THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL...AND IN FACT ARE...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THAT COULD MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE CLOUD
CATEGORY FOR SIOUX FALLS AS NORTHWEST IA IS CURRENTLY LOWER END
VFR. FOR NOW...HEDGED THE KFSD TAF FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE MVFR
RANGE AND NOT IFR/LIFR. WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF IFR CEILINGS
STUBBORNLY HANG ON. AT ANY RATE...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL NEAR SUNRISE AS VERY MOIST AIR TRANSLATES INTO LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEGREE OF
DECENT MIX OUT RAISING THE CEILINGS BY FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE
LOWER END VFR RANGE.

LIFR AND IFR ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT KHON FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT THE VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO KFSD...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIFR ANYWAY. KHON SHOULD GO VFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO KFSD...BUT THEN A WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY USHER IN SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.

KSUX WILL BE VFR IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT AGAIN AM WORRIED WITH THE
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WET GROUND...THAT IFR/LIFR COULD
DEVELOP AT THIS SITE ALSO AROUND SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO KFSD AND
KHON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING INTO THE LOWER END VFR CATEGORY
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF SITES FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...ONLY SHOWERS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
IN THIS AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282036
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
336 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN ARE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

A STRONG DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN SD...WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SOME HEATING OVER ERN
NEBRASKA...THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUCH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING EAST OF VERMILLION
TO MML LINE. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. HOWEVER...AS THE
SUNSET...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE A STORM
TOWARD I29 THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER
THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. WITH RAIN EARLIER TODAY...THIS SETS UP A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN NW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
I29...HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WITH THE FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE WEAK...THIS FOG COULD PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
THE OTHER EFFECT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THAT LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND KHON TO THE UPPER 60S
AROUND KSUX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING ERN NEBRASKA AROUND 18Z. WITH THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNIGN NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST SW MN AND NW
IA...WITH AREAS FROM SUX TO MJQ HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTING FROM A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESS TO NORTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH WITH STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER WEST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 80S...WITH MID 80S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...IT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AFTER
FROPA...SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WX DAY. LLVL JET IS
AROUND 40-45KTS ADVECTING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT INTO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECENT AMT OF SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SKY COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
AMT OF INSOLATION TO CORRESPOND WITH BETTER SVR PARAMETERS AS WELL
AS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP. EITHER WAY...STRENGTH OF APPROACHING WAVE
AND RESULTANT SFC FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A WEAK WAVEQUICKLY
PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA.

FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...ONLY CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THIS PD IS IN
SOUTHWEST MN ON TUES NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS
YET ANOTHER FEW WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SEVERAL ISSUES WITH TAFS NEXT 24 H. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE LOW
CLODUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STRATOCU FORMS...MVFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BRIEFLY TO
MVF AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE LATER AT
KHON...LIKELY TO 03Z. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE NOT FAVORED ANY ONE
TAF WITH LOWER VSBYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR VSBYS LESS THAN
1SM AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT IS KHON WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL VERY SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE TOWARD 15Z AROUND KHON
ALTHOUGH IF SURFACE TROUGH MOVES MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED AND NW
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15Z. FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KHON WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
THOUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT BECOMES ORPHANED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY BEFORE STALLING OUT. MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY PUT A CEILING AT KSUX
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
THOUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT BECOMES ORPHANED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY BEFORE STALLING OUT. MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY PUT A CEILING AT KSUX
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT A BAD STARTING POINT...
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY 850 HPA WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION.
MAINLY FOLLOWED THIS FOR POP PLACEMENT...HOWEVER... FORCING
APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICK AND SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE POPS
COMPARED TO THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MID RANGE POPS FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE MILDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAIN FEATURE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIGURATION BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS TOO MUCH
SO...BUT EVEN DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION AND A NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATE TO SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LIMITED DIURNAL CYCLE AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AS WELL SO WOULD
EXPECT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...AND WHILE PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OR SO ON THE AVERAGE...SOME AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
A BIT MORE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A SPENCER TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
WITH SUCH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY HEDGING MORE TOWARD
THE MOIST NEUTRAL SIDE THAN GREATLY UNSTABLE...DO NOT SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS A LARGE THREAT...PERHAPS IN ISOLATED WIND OR BRIEF
SPINUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...DEPENDING FULLY ON WHETHER CAN GET
ANY DESTABILIZING OF THE LOWEST LAYER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...HEATING OF THE DAY A BIT MORE FAVORED AND
WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT MORE AFTER A LITTLE
MORE HOSTILITY TOWARD LIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY. BY LATER
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND
SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PERHAPS
GENERATE A COUPLE OF ROGUE LATE DAY STORMS...WITH THE THREAT
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH THE WEAK SECONDARY
WAVE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY. REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

WITH LITTLE PUSH TO FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY IN THE EAST...LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WEST AND LOCATION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY CONVERGENCE PUSHES
INTO THE MID 80S. BY SATURDAY...SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER MOST
AREAS...EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GET ANOTHER BOOST TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA
E ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LEADING WEAK PV IMPULSE/DIV Q SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT HARD TO PUSH MUCH PAST A
MODEST CHANCE POP FOR SD CWA...AND HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...
WITH CLEAR LACK OF A BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY IS PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD WITH NEXT STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MAKING A SHARP TURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTFLOW TYPE JET TO NORTH...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE...PROBABLY MORE OF A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THAN DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TIMING...WHICH VARIES FROM GFS A BIT FASTER
TO ECMWF A BIT SLOWER...MAY TIME OUT TO COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
CYCLE...AS DEEPLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND DISTRIBUTED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN DESIRED
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MENTIONABLE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AT THIS POINT LOOKING FROM I 29 AND EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND BE WELL CLEAR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...LEAVING A QUIET
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE RETURN FLOW ACTIVITY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE ZIPS THROUGH. OVERALL...WILL BE IN A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD WESTERN TROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...MAKING FOR STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY TO START JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY
WEEK...AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...EXACT TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND TOMORROW...BUT PROBABLY NOT
REALLY IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD





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