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000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230457
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE
KSUX TAF. BASED ON OBS WILL KEEP KSUX MVFR...BUT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND COULD MOVE IN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FORM...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY BECOMING LESS LIKELY. AGAIN KFSD
WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXPECTING GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS TO BE COMMON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO SHOULD SEE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR. ALSO
SHOULD BE SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR AND
RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH
OUT THERE. WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WILL TRY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRETTY
GOOD AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DID GO AHEAD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL RAIN
THOUGH. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLAIN RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO BACK THIS UP...SO FELT COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF SNOW. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES
MIXED IN...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
600 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
600 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MARSHALL AND EAST. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD
HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD
BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT
COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH
925 HPA TEMPS COOLING FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z
MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE KSUX TAF. STILL A POSSIBILITY WE SEE LIFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. AGAIN KFSD WILL BE
NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS THEM STAYING VFR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. EXPECT ANY STRATUS TO CLEAR EARLY TO MID MORNING AS A
FRONT SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...AS THE FRONT CROSSES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 KTS TO BE COMMON...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
HIGHER. ALSO SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY HIGH END MVFR
OR LOW END VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 222216
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MASHALL AND EAST.  EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVELS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD HAVE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING
WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING.
TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES
CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH 925 HPA TEMPS COOLING
FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 222216
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WHERE THE STRATUS HAS ERODED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ACROSS THE EAST UNDER THE BLANKET OF
LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE 30S.  EXPECT
THE EAST TO FILL BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM VERMILLION TO MASHALL AND EAST.  EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVELS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...COULD HAVE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING
WITH WEAK DIV Q ALOFT. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A REAL CONCERN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE NEAR FREEZING.
TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...FOR NOW...KEPT PRECIP TYPES
CONFINED TO RAIN OR SNOW...BUT COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
WITH WARM DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL ON SUNDAY...WITH 925 HPA TEMPS COOLING
FROM NEAR 10C DOWN CLOSER TO 5C BY 0Z MONDAY. FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...925 HPA TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS LEADING
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COLDER AIR BEGINS RUSHING BACK INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE
EVENING AND REACHING THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR EAST...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND WITHOUT A
GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH TO INCH IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
OTHERWISE A FEW TENTHS OR TRACE AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND A BIT...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION. ANY EXISTING SNOW
PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES EITHER.

WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY A COLD
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A CLIPPER WAVE ALONG THE
UPPER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FAST
MOVING WAVE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF THEN THE NAM. BUT IT
SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMES THE FOCUS MECHANISM OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH WHERE THIS WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL MENTION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS WAVER WITH BRINGING FURTHER WAVES ALONG THE FLOW...BUT NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221742
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BOUNDARY SHOULD FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF A SUX/FSD/MML LINE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17Z. WEST OF A
SUX/FSD/MMML LINE VFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
23/06Z. FROM 23/06Z-12Z CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES
BELOW 3SM IN FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IA
INCLUDING SUX TAF SITE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IN FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF A SUX/FSD/MML LINE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17Z. WEST OF A
SUX/FSD/MMML LINE VFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
23/06Z. FROM 23/06Z-12Z CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES
BELOW 3SM IN FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IA
INCLUDING SUX TAF SITE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
     089-090-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221019
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221019
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FROM NW IA INTO PART OF SW MN
INTO THE LATE MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL SWRLY FLOW AND SOME
WARMING WILL BE SWEEPING IT OUT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO GET
MARGINALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAD NOT
DEVELOPED...AND WITH A CONTINUING DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA
SUSPECT WE WILL NOT NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT OF COURSE WILL
MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST BUT DRIER AIR NOT MUCH ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH. ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS LINGERING
FAR EAST INTO PERHAPS THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE
MILD WITH A DECENT ROUND OF SNOWMELT. UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT THAT THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST AS
HIGHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DRY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE AIR BEING DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND THEIR DEPTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SUGGESTS SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASED DEPTH ALSO SUGGESTS
DROPLETS COULD BE BIG ENOUGH FOR MINIMALLY MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN...AND SINCE WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS...WILL CONTINUE
THEM FOR LATE TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
SEEMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAYBE COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING. UNSURE OF THE DEGREE OF LATE NIGHT MIXING WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM SO WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH ANY SUDDEN TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...BUT THEY COULD HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DOMINANT FOCUS OF THE START OF THE LONGER TERM IS EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO THE EAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AT
LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR SOME EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS
DEGREE OF SHARPNESS TO TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
IF NOT FOR A FEW MODELS/RUNS INDICATING THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACTUALLY UNDERGOING WEAKENING HEADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING...WOULD JUSTIFY PERHAPS STRONGER ON THE POPS FOR THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN ON PRECIPITATION
TYPE POTENTIAL WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS ALOFT BATTLING WHAT IS
CERTAIN TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT WET BULB IMPACT. PROBABLY A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW...OR EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW IF CAN GET A BIT MORE
INTENSE OR BANDED PER NAM TYPE SOLUTION. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...
AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WILL LIKELY FIND A MURKY MESS
OF LOWER CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL GET QUICKLY SHOVED ASIDE BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY NOT A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL REALLY START TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 6-8C DROP IN 925 HPA
TEMPS LIMITING MIXING BY MIDDAY NORTHWEST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL...
AND LATE DAY SOUTHEAST CWA...AND MOST CERTAINLY ENDING WITH A MORE
THAN TYPICAL LATE DAY DROP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF SE SD.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OCCURS...BUT WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS FAR STRONGER
WITH CYCLOGENESIS...SOMEWHAT FURTHER EASTWARD. WHATEVER SOLUTION
IS MORE CORRECT IN THE END...OUR AREA IS SURE TO EXPERIENCE VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO CYCLE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SW MN. APPEARS THAT
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHT AS DEEPER FORCING CONTINUES TO THE
EAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME HALF INCH OR BIT MORE AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THE WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH NEW SNOWFALL TO CREATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...AND THE OLDER SNOW WILL BE WELL CRUSTED
FROM WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR THE CRITICAL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TIME...BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER WAVE PATTERN IS THERE IN
A GENERAL SENSE...BUT THE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT GFS IS ABOUT 6-9
HOURS QUICKER THAN EC/CANADIAN. TUESDAY WILL PUT CWA INTO A WARMER
SECTOR OF WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE PUSHED UP
TIMING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH THE STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING
REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THINGS AS A
CHANCE POP FOR THE TIME. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EC SO AMPLIFIED WITH THIS CLIPPER WAVE THAT
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SO FAR SOUTHWARD THAT ARCTIC RIDGE
TAKES OVER AND IS SIMPLY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...GFS LEAST SO...AND THEN
FIND APPROACH OF THE NEXT SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INTERACT WITH THERMAL RIBBON...RESULTING IN
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...EITHER MAINLY
NORTH PER 00Z GFS...OR THROUGH THE HEART PER 06Z GFS...OR THE
MISSOURI VALLEY PER CANADIAN. QPF/SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20/1 WOULD
BRING PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A WORST CASE AT THIS
POINT. COULD NOT GET A REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON INTRODUCING POPS WITH
INITIALIZATION GRIDS SUB MEASURABLE FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE DEFERRED TO LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES
GUIDANCE CONVERGES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE REASONABLE POPS. ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING TO GIVE TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 220453
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220453
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRETTY CONFIDENT KHON REMAINS VFR...BUT STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS
REMAIN EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WATCHING LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS INTO
KSUX. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...THINK THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY GET CIGS BELOW 500 FEET...AND COULD POSSIBLY ALSO SEE
DENSE FOG. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS
STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID
MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WATCHING LARGE
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. AM
PRETTY CONFIDENT KSUX WILL GO MVFR BY AROUND 04Z AND EVENTUALLY
IFR LATER TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE CIGS DROP INTO THE LIFR
RANGE...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO PRETTY CONFIDENT
KHON STAYS VFR. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR DECIDED TO BRING IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN
IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SEE LOW
STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR
NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR
EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WATCHING LARGE
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. AM
PRETTY CONFIDENT KSUX WILL GO MVFR BY AROUND 04Z AND EVENTUALLY
IFR LATER TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE CIGS DROP INTO THE LIFR
RANGE...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO PRETTY CONFIDENT
KHON STAYS VFR. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT KFSD...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR DECIDED TO BRING IFR CIGS INTO KFSD LATER
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN
IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS AND FOG EXITS TOMORROW. STAYED ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW CIGS AND VIS STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...AS WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...AT THE LEAST THINK NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SEE LOW
STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
THIS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. FOR
NOW HAVE IMPROVEMENTS BY MID MORNING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
DEFINITELY THERE THAT THESE CONDITIONS LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OR
EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212201
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KHON
AND KFSD. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRATUS MAY WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HARD TO SAY IF
SIOUX CITY WILL SEE STRATUS AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER 04Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212201
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DIFFICULT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 THIS HAS PROMOTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MELT.  AREA OF
STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN CONTAINED ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS IS NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS...
HRRR...RAP AND SREF SUGGEST FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.  TRIED TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS
LINGERING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. KEPT LOWS MILD NORTH OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SIDED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH AS TO HOW MUCH OF THAT
WARMING WILL SURFACE. 925 HPA TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...STARTING NEAR 3 TO 5 C AND WARMING TO 5 TO 7C BY 00Z SUNDAY.
FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL TO WARM.  WHERE THERE IS A VOID OF LOW CLOUDS...SHOULD
SEE SOME NICE WARMING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL
WILL BE FAR FROM FULL MIXOUT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SNOW PACK TO CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS A TROUGH NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THE FORECAST AREA STATIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME NORTH IN THE NORTHEAST
MAY CREEP INTO OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS LEAKING BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST QG FORCING
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT TO FALL. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN HALF INCH...BUT COULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BLOW AROUND...BUT ANY EXISTING
SNOW PACK SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CRUST TO NOT CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
COOLING FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SHARP RIDGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASES INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS OUT...BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MILDER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KHON
AND KFSD. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRATUS MAY WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HARD TO SAY IF
SIOUX CITY WILL SEE STRATUS AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER 04Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1212 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KHON
AND KFSD. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRATUS MAY WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HARD TO SAY IF
SIOUX CITY WILL SEE STRATUS AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER 04Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1212 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KHON
AND KFSD. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRATUS MAY WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HARD TO SAY IF
SIOUX CITY WILL SEE STRATUS AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER 04Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211157
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
557 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN IN THE 12Z TAF SET IS THE ONSET OF
STRATUS FOR KFSD AND KSUX. PLENTY OF IT EXISTS FROM SOUTHEAST KS
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IT WILL
RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY ALONG A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
AIR. USED THE RAP13 FOR TIMING OF THE STRATUS TO EDGE INTO KSUX
AND KFSD. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LOW END MVFR OR IFR. CURRENTLY...EVEN LIFR EXISTS
IN SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW...STAYED ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND WENT LOWER END MVFR. BUT FULLY REALIZE THAT
STRATUS CONDITIONS COULD ERODE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS TONIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211157
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
557 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN IN THE 12Z TAF SET IS THE ONSET OF
STRATUS FOR KFSD AND KSUX. PLENTY OF IT EXISTS FROM SOUTHEAST KS
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IT WILL
RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY ALONG A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
AIR. USED THE RAP13 FOR TIMING OF THE STRATUS TO EDGE INTO KSUX
AND KFSD. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LOW END MVFR OR IFR. CURRENTLY...EVEN LIFR EXISTS
IN SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW...STAYED ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND WENT LOWER END MVFR. BUT FULLY REALIZE THAT
STRATUS CONDITIONS COULD ERODE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS TONIGHT
PROGRESSES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210925
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. STILL THINK
THIS IS A MODEL ERROR IN HANDLING THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE
SNOWPACK...AND FAVOR A SOLUTION WITHOUT LOW LEVEL STRATUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 0Z. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. STILL A
CHANCE WE SEE LOW STRATUS...BUT THINK PROBABILITY IS PRETTY
LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING WE PROBABLY
WILL SEE SOME STRATUS BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT MVFR CIGS INTO THE KSUX TAF AFTER 0Z...AND
COULD POSSIBLY BE IFR. KEPT OUT OF THE KFSD TAF AS THINK THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH STRATUS OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE IT GETS
THERE...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210925
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN STEADY...AND EVEN SLOWLY RISE AS EXPECTED. THE WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE IN THE MIXED LAYER TODAY ARE AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
QUITE BREEZY. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THIS AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THIS HAS OCCURRED.

NOW THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OUR ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS HAS
NUDGED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EROSION ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH...IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE STRATUS WILL EXTEND. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE IT
MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF IMPOSSIBILITIES THAT
THE CLOUDS COULD DO SO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DESPITE DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAST ITEM TO CONSIDER IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NOT OVERLY THRILLED ABOUT IT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO GREATEST DEPTH...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE MILD. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
EASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY AND LOCATIONS AROUND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...ANY DRIZZLE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD END WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING
SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
MILD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 30S OR LOWER
40S...MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST...AS A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
BALMIER WITHOUT THE CURRENT SNOW COVER.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST PASSES ACROSS AND THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING
UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST...WITH THE UPPER
WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL POKE UP A
LITTLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BEFORE STARTING TO COOL. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL THEN BRING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW CHANCE WHILE
ALSO KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN CASE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOP
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THE WINDS...LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...AND
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THEN DECREASE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL HOLD BELOW
FREEZING WITH WIND CHILLS GOING DOWN FURTHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING A SMALL ATTEMPT AT WARMING
BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AS
THIS MIDWEEK COLD FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE POST
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FAIRLY COLD...BUT THE EC
BRINGING MUCH MORE RIDGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NOT SURE BUT WOULD FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD PATTERN IF I HAD TO CHOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. STILL THINK
THIS IS A MODEL ERROR IN HANDLING THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE
SNOWPACK...AND FAVOR A SOLUTION WITHOUT LOW LEVEL STRATUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 0Z. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. STILL A
CHANCE WE SEE LOW STRATUS...BUT THINK PROBABILITY IS PRETTY
LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING WE PROBABLY
WILL SEE SOME STRATUS BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT MVFR CIGS INTO THE KSUX TAF AFTER 0Z...AND
COULD POSSIBLY BE IFR. KEPT OUT OF THE KFSD TAF AS THINK THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH STRATUS OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE IT GETS
THERE...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210458
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1058 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STRATUS HAS HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALL
DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.  WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE
EAST.  EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE WITH
STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT
FOR NOW. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH ISOTHERMAL
HIGHS FROM 00Z SAT 925 TEMPS...WHICH WARMS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO STORM LAKE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. WITH THIS LAYER
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DEEPER OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH RELATIVELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE EAST - WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS RISE A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN STRATUS LAYER GRADUALLY THINS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS EVENTUALLY PHASE THESE FEATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW STILL BECOMES CUT OFF AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE LOW ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SUPPORT IS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MIXING BACK INTO
THE 30S...COLD AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
STAYS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WILL POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

NOT MUCH OF ANY MODEL AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GETTING COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS
BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY NUDGES
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LEFT A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER DAY. THANKSGIVING IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS BEGINS NUDGING THE RIDGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT
ALTER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE NARROW BAND OF CIRRUS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. STILL THINK
THIS IS A MODEL ERROR IN HANDLING THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE
SNOWPACK...AND FAVOR A SOLUTION WITHOUT LOW LEVEL STRATUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 0Z. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. STILL A
CHANCE WE SEE LOW STRATUS...BUT THINK PROBABILITY IS PRETTY
LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING WE PROBABLY
WILL SEE SOME STRATUS BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT MVFR CIGS INTO THE KSUX TAF AFTER 0Z...AND
COULD POSSIBLY BE IFR. KEPT OUT OF THE KFSD TAF AS THINK THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH STRATUS OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE IT GETS
THERE...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STRATUS HAS HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALL
DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.  WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE
EAST.  EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE WITH
STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT
FOR NOW. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH ISOTHERMAL
HIGHS FROM 00Z SAT 925 TEMPS...WHICH WARMS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO STORM LAKE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. WITH THIS LAYER
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DEEPER OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH RELATIVELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE EAST - WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS RISE A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN STRATUS LAYER GRADUALLY THINS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS EVENTUALLY PHASE THESE FEATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW STILL BECOMES CUT OFF AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE LOW ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SUPPORT IS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MIXING BACK INTO
THE 30S...COLD AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
STAYS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WILL POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

NOT MUCH OF ANY MODEL AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GETTING COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS
BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY NUDGES
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LEFT A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER DAY. THANKSGIVING IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS BEGINS NUDGING THE RIDGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT
ALTER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STILL SEEING A NARROW BAND OF MVFR STRATUS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM JUST NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO JUST
SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY. AS WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER INCREASE THIS
EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...EXPECT THIS NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER OR DISSIPATES...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES AS
THIS MOVES NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS
IS MOST LIKELY A MODEL ERROR IN HANDLING THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN
OVER THE SNOWPACK...AND FAVOR A SOLUTION WITHOUT LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AT LEAST THROUGH 0Z. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES. STILL A CHANCE WE SEE LOW STRATUS...BUT THINK
PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STRATUS HAS HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALL
DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.  WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE
EAST.  EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE WITH
STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT
FOR NOW. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH ISOTHERMAL
HIGHS FROM 00Z SAT 925 TEMPS...WHICH WARMS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO STORM LAKE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. WITH THIS LAYER
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DEEPER OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH RELATIVELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE EAST - WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS RISE A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN STRATUS LAYER GRADUALLY THINS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS EVENTUALLY PHASE THESE FEATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW STILL BECOMES CUT OFF AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE LOW ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SUPPORT IS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MIXING BACK INTO
THE 30S...COLD AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
STAYS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WILL POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

NOT MUCH OF ANY MODEL AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GETTING COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS
BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY NUDGES
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LEFT A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER DAY. THANKSGIVING IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS BEGINS NUDGING THE RIDGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT
ALTER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STILL SEEING A NARROW BAND OF MVFR STRATUS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM JUST NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO JUST
SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY. AS WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER INCREASE THIS
EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...EXPECT THIS NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER OR DISSIPATES...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES AS
THIS MOVES NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS
IS MOST LIKELY A MODEL ERROR IN HANDLING THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN
OVER THE SNOWPACK...AND FAVOR A SOLUTION WITHOUT LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AT LEAST THROUGH 0Z. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES. STILL A CHANCE WE SEE LOW STRATUS...BUT THINK
PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STRATUS HAS HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALL
DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.  WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE
EAST.  EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE WITH
STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT
FOR NOW. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH ISOTHERMAL
HIGHS FROM 00Z SAT 925 TEMPS...WHICH WARMS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO STORM LAKE ABOVE FREEZING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. WITH THIS LAYER
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DEEPER OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH RELATIVELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE EAST - WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS RISE A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN STRATUS LAYER GRADUALLY THINS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS EVENTUALLY PHASE THESE FEATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW STILL BECOMES CUT OFF AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE LOW ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SUPPORT IS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MIXING BACK INTO
THE 30S...COLD AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
STAYS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WILL POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

NOT MUCH OF ANY MODEL AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GETTING COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS
BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY NUDGES
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LEFT A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER DAY. THANKSGIVING IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS BEGINS NUDGING THE RIDGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT
ALTER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPANDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202149
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

STRATUS HAS HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALL
DAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.  WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST...HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS ACROSS THE
EAST.  EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DRIZZLE WITH
STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT
FOR NOW. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH ISOTHERMAL
HIGHS FROM 00Z SAT 925 TEMPS...WHICH WARMS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO STORM LAKE ABOVE FREEZING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. WITH THIS LAYER
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DEEPER OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH RELATIVELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE EAST - WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS RISE A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN STRATUS LAYER GRADUALLY THINS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS EVENTUALLY PHASE THESE FEATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...QUITE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW STILL BECOMES CUT OFF AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE LOW ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SUPPORT IS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MIXING BACK INTO
THE 30S...COLD AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
STAYS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WILL POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

NOT MUCH OF ANY MODEL AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GETTING COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS
BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY NUDGES
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. LEFT A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER DAY. THANKSGIVING IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS BEGINS NUDGING THE RIDGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT
ALTER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPANDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPANDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPANDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BAND OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY BISECTS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST
AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A HURON SD...TO SIOUX
FALLS...TO STORM LAKE IA LINE. NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR...SO QUITE A SHARP CONTRAST. THE CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE WARM FRONT ALOFT BASED NEAR THE 900-850MB LAYER...
THEREFORE THE CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING SUIT IN THE UPPER END MVFR TO
LOWER END VFR CATEGORY. WHAT THE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DO TODAY IS A
HUGE QUESTION MARK...FORTUNATELY DUE TO THEIR HEIGHT...THEY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE A LOT OF AVIATION CONCERNS. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD DECK AT
ALL. WIND ASSOCIATED NEAR 850MB WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...SO THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE LIMITED.
BUT THEY COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WENT
PREDOMINANTLY BROKEN FOR TODAY...BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS JUST INSIDE
THE VFR CATEGORY AS CURRENT CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3200
FEET AGL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WINDS AT 850MB WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO IF THE
CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE...THEN CLOUD COVER
NEAR 3000 FEET AGL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GREET KHON...KFSD AND
KSUX. HEDGED THIS THOUGHT WITH A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A BAND OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY BISECTS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST
AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A HURON SD...TO SIOUX
FALLS...TO STORM LAKE IA LINE. NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR...SO QUITE A SHARP CONTRAST. THE CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE WARM FRONT ALOFT BASED NEAR THE 900-850MB LAYER...
THEREFORE THE CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING SUIT IN THE UPPER END MVFR TO
LOWER END VFR CATEGORY. WHAT THE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DO TODAY IS A
HUGE QUESTION MARK...FORTUNATELY DUE TO THEIR HEIGHT...THEY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE A LOT OF AVIATION CONCERNS. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS REALLY DO NOT HAVE HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD DECK AT
ALL. WIND ASSOCIATED NEAR 850MB WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...SO THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE LIMITED.
BUT THEY COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WENT
PREDOMINANTLY BROKEN FOR TODAY...BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS JUST INSIDE
THE VFR CATEGORY AS CURRENT CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3200
FEET AGL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WINDS AT 850MB WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO IF THE
CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE...THEN CLOUD COVER
NEAR 3000 FEET AGL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GREET KHON...KFSD AND
KSUX. HEDGED THIS THOUGHT WITH A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200859
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

REMNANTS OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SIOUX CITY AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THIS WILL NOT
IMMEDIATELY AFFECT THE FSD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE TIME
ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX.
STRATUS COULD LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...
AND THAT BAND OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER THIS CURRENT TAF PERIOD HAS ENDED...AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200859
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

BAND OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING IN...EXTENDING RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL THEY EXPAND FURTHER OR DISSIPATE.
THEY APPEAR TO BE ALONG A WEAK VORT FILAMENT...AND THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHERMORE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING A WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR 900-
850MB IS EVIDENT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE BASED. EXCEPT
FOR THE RAP13...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FROM OTHER MODELS IS THAT THE
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER SNOW
COVER THAT SCENARIO CAN BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS WE WILL HAVE TODAY. BUT THE STRATUS IS ALSO NOT VERY THICK. SO IT
IS A TOUGH CALL. FOR NOW...LINGERED STRATUS CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARED IT OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS FOR THOSE AREAS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT AIDING THE MIXING PROCESS MUCH OVER THE
SNOW COVER. THEREFORE HIGHS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT
IN GREGORY COUNTY...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR BROOKINGS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST MN. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR. THE QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW FAR OUR EASTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT. WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR DUE TO VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING. WEST OF I 29...CONSENSUS BIAS CORRECTED
RAW VALUES LOOKED ON TARGET. AT ANY RATE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO OVERDO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS WITH THE WAA FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
AND MOVING OVER THE AREA. THUS...WHILE THE LEVEL OF THE CLOUD COVER
IS IN DOUBT...WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PASS ON...BUT LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGER SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
LOT OF QUESTIONS STILL ABOUT THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE
AND FEEL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE MODELS COULD EVEN BE UNDERDOING IT
ALONG WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WINDS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
THINK IT WILL GET WINDY ENOUGH FOR BLOWING SNOW...GIVEN THE
INCREASING AGE OF THE SNOW COVER AND NO NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WARMING WITH IT...AND THE SNOW
COVER...WE ARE POINTING TO A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND LOWS WARMING TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND WINDS SLACKING
OFF SOME...BUT WILL NOT PUT IN AT THIS TIME.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS SOME RECENT DAYS. TIMING
STRENGTH AND PATH OF DIGGING WAVES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND ARE NOT
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH SNOW TO THIS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE POSSIBLE. AM KEEPING A LESSER MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH THESE CHANCE POPS AS IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE CURRENT SNOW AROUND AS IT
CONTINUES TO AGE AND ENDURE SOME LIKELY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
YES IT WILL GET WINDY DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT ENOUGH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MODESTLY COLD. THE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY SNOW THREAT FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME WITH THE MODEL TREND SHIFTING TO A LITTLE LATER TIMING...
THURSDAY IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

REMNANTS OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SIOUX CITY AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THIS WILL NOT
IMMEDIATELY AFFECT THE FSD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE TIME
ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX.
STRATUS COULD LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...
AND THAT BAND OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER THIS CURRENT TAF PERIOD HAS ENDED...AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





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