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000
FXUS63 KFSD 272109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
409 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ABOUND...HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR
WESTERN BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHORT
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...RAIN
WILL BE SPARSE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. SUPPORT WANES EVEN
FURTHER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND OF
STRATOCUMULUS TO THIN AND ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES TO DISSIPATE.
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY...BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM WITH
LOWS RECENTLY...HEDGED A BIT COOLER WITH THE LOWS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COULD STILL BE A COUPLE OF ROGUE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY EVENING AS LAST OF SHEARING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
EXITS THE AREA. ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AIRMASS...AS
NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH EXTENSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. AS WITH RECENT
SIMILAR NIGHTS...WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
SOME LOWS GETTING TOWARD MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA.
SURFACE RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PROBABLY
END UP AS ONE OF THE NICER SPRING DAYS WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MIX DOWN A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND...PERHAPS A BIT OVER 10 MPH AT TIMES. DRY AIR AND LINGERING
WEAKER GRADIENT IN THE EAST MAY AGAIN OPEN THE WINDOW FOR SOME
COOLER LOWS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY...AND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE DAY...
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...AND SO WILL CONCERN FOR FIRE
DANGER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO REACH
20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A WEDGE OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING RIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS.

AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A MEAGER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT TAIL END OF BETTER
DYNAMICS DOES DRAG THROUGH THE CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A LEAST A LOWER CHANCE MENTION. AS FAST AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT TAKING THE LOWER THREAT OF RAIN
WITH IT...AND LACK OF FLOW AMPLITUDE KEEPING ANY THERMAL CHANGES
MINIMAL.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL
AFTER LATE WEEK WAVES...AND TIMING OF FEATURES ALONG WITH
UNCERTAIN NORTH/SOUTH LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES WILL
MAKE PLACING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES A MORE DIFFICULT TASK.
BEST PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...TIMING AROUND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...AS SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CWA TO MATCH WELL WITH DIURNAL CYCLE. IF
CAN BREAK OUT CLOUD DEBRIS AND WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED...WITH
INDICATED LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE RETURN...MAY GET A BETTER
THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY...THREAT WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
409 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ABOUND...HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR
WESTERN BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHORT
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...RAIN
WILL BE SPARSE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. SUPPORT WANES EVEN
FURTHER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND OF
STRATOCUMULUS TO THIN AND ANY REMAINING SPRINKLES TO DISSIPATE.
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY...BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM WITH
LOWS RECENTLY...HEDGED A BIT COOLER WITH THE LOWS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COULD STILL BE A COUPLE OF ROGUE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY EVENING AS LAST OF SHEARING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
EXITS THE AREA. ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AIRMASS...AS
NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH EXTENSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. AS WITH RECENT
SIMILAR NIGHTS...WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
SOME LOWS GETTING TOWARD MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA.
SURFACE RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PROBABLY
END UP AS ONE OF THE NICER SPRING DAYS WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MIX DOWN A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND...PERHAPS A BIT OVER 10 MPH AT TIMES. DRY AIR AND LINGERING
WEAKER GRADIENT IN THE EAST MAY AGAIN OPEN THE WINDOW FOR SOME
COOLER LOWS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY...AND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE DAY...
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...AND SO WILL CONCERN FOR FIRE
DANGER. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO REACH
20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A WEDGE OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING RIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO LOWER BRULE AREAS.

AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A MEAGER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT TAIL END OF BETTER
DYNAMICS DOES DRAG THROUGH THE CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A LEAST A LOWER CHANCE MENTION. AS FAST AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT TAKING THE LOWER THREAT OF RAIN
WITH IT...AND LACK OF FLOW AMPLITUDE KEEPING ANY THERMAL CHANGES
MINIMAL.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL
AFTER LATE WEEK WAVES...AND TIMING OF FEATURES ALONG WITH
UNCERTAIN NORTH/SOUTH LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES WILL
MAKE PLACING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES A MORE DIFFICULT TASK.
BEST PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...TIMING AROUND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...AS SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATED TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CWA TO MATCH WELL WITH DIURNAL CYCLE. IF
CAN BREAK OUT CLOUD DEBRIS AND WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED...WITH
INDICATED LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE RETURN...MAY GET A BETTER
THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY...THREAT WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262328
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261949
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 4-6 SM RANGE WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PLEASANT SPRING DAY AHEAD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.  WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND LOWER
30S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN LEAN TOWARD DRIER BIAS
CORRECTED DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND WAS MUCH MORE SPARSE.

UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. GULF IS
STILL CUTOFF AT THIS POINT...RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER REINFORCE THE DRY SURFACE AIR AND
HAVE ADJUSTED BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS DOWNWARD. CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. WITH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH...SHOULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...THOUGH EVENTUAL FIRE DANGER MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECENT RAINFALL ALLOWS FOR GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS...WITH ECMWF LAGGING THE GEM/GFS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. ECMWF ALSO A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH MOISTURE THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS...BUT GIVEN THAT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL HANGING UP FROM EAST TEXAS  INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO STRENGTH OF ECMWF
MOISTURE RETURN. THUS HAVE TRIMMED MOST POPS GIVEN BY BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS
IN SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ECMWF REDEVELOPING
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY TRACKS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF TO
OPEN BY THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS RANGE
THOUGH...AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOCATION...MAY SLOW UP THE
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. THUS AGAIN AM FAVORING
A DRIER PERIOD FOR SATURDAY THAN MODEL BLEND...TRIMMING BACK BOTH
POPS AND DEW POINTS BY A SMALL DEGREE. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO APPARENT IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH WETTER GFS
REMAINING COOLER THAN THE DRIER ECMWF. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR
DRIER FORECAST...WILL ALSO FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
REACHING MID TO UPPER 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260329
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LVL DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SHEARING
DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW TO SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO BACK THROUGH MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MOST OF
THE LOWEST CLOUDINESS ALREADY TODAY...REPLACED BY HIGHER MIXING
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MANY OF THESE CLOUDS OVER THE MID AND EASTERN
CWA WILL BECOME FAIRLY PERISHABLE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR A GRADUAL
EAST TO WEST CLEARING WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
SUNDAY. A BIT MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BIT OF PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRYING AND EASTERLY
GRADIENT...SHOULD NOT BECOME ANY LARGE CONCERN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED.

THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE REASON
NOT TO EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND LIKEWISE
TOWARD THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RECENT LOCAL WET SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA CAN
OVERCOME THIS MIXING...AND KEEP DEWPOINT A BIT HIGHER...BUT AREA OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERABLY SMALL AND LARGER IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.  SHOULD END UP WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH TROUGHING BLOCKING FLOW TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING TO THE SOUTH...FAIRLY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL ABOUND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE MIXING IS
NOT IDEAL...DID TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED
AS TREKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GEM PAINT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POP MENTION IN TUNE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...USHERING IN WARMER WEATHER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE REALIZED. WENT A
BIT PESSIMISTIC ON DEWPOINTS WHICH DROPS OUR RH RIGHT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MORE ROBUST SLOW MOVING WAVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS IMPROVE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251750
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BACKED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...AND CONTINUED
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
THESE CLOUDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD TURN UP VFR. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY TO IF A
LITTLE FOG MAY FORM THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251615
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY CONTINUING TO SPIN AWAY
FROM THE AREA...WITH AREA IN DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW SHOWERS IN WEAK LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE WANDERING EVER SO SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID JAMES
VALLEY. OVERALL...COVERAGE TENDENCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
GOING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING OF SHALLOW FORCING AND
TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS INCREASING IMPACT OF DRYING
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN ERODING A WEDGE ALONG INTERSTATE 90
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD THE KFSD AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST
TO ERODE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND MAY YIELD JUST A BIT
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR LOWER BRULE TOWARD KHON LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251123
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
LEADING TOWARDS IMPROVING CEILINGS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM EAST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT....LEADING TO VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250924
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
424 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250924
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
424 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SPORADIC SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND IF
ANYTHING...IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE
LIGHT...LEADING TO VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  CURRENTLY...LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH
15Z OR SO ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE..EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWER POTENTIAL TO BREAK DOWN
WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA MAY TRY TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE SIDED WITH
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.  THE ARW HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHEN THESE SHOWERS WILL END...AND WHAT IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO
RADIATE BETTER...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RETURN TO QUIETER AND SOMEWHAT MORE CLEARCUT FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LONGER RANGES. NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAVORED WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND LACK OF GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY...DID HOLD HIGHS BELOW BIAS
CORRECTED VALUES WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
FRIDAYS RAINFALL. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE MONDAY WHEN MIXING WILL BE
MORE LIMITED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POP NORTH OF I-90 AS ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS BROAD RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ECMWF TRACKS A BIT STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY...AND DECIDED TO HANG ON TO LOW GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING FIRE DANGER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE RETURN BY THURSDAY THAN THE GEM/GFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY RETURN THAT QUICKLY
GIVEN SURFACE RIDGE STILL BETWEEN HERE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS NUDGED DEW POINTS DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE RAW GEM/GFS VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. THIS CURRENTLY LEADING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF MOISTURE
IS SLOWER TO RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 250339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN PRIMARILY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

LEADING UPPER WAVE ALMOST EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHING OUT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS MUDDLED ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA... AND HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF ROGUE STORMS POP UP SOUTH AND WEST
OF KONL. THROUGH THE LATTER AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AGREE WITH VIEW OF
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THRU 00Z. WITH
LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THE EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK...SO WEAK THAT DEEP BULK SHEAR IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION TO ANY DEGREE. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF 600-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A PULSY MULTICELL
TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS FAVORING NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRINGE OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOLS. IF THERE IS
ANY MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL RISK...LIKELY A 5 TO 8 PM WINDOW WOULD
CAPTURE ANY THREAT ACROSS THE AREAS NEAR THE JAMES RIVER AND
WESTWARD.

FURTHER EAST...LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THREAT WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS ADVECTIVE SPEEDS WILL BE MINIMAL. VERY POSSIBLE THAT
ANY CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL FADE PRIOR TO PUSHING
MUCH PAST I 29. MOVING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME BETTER DEEP DYNAMICS WRAP UP
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL ALSO BE
THROWN BACK WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...WITH LOWS FAIRLY
MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

ON SATURDAY...LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
AND PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE DAY. WIDE EXPANSE OF LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTION
IN MOST SOLUTIONS IS THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK LOWER CLOUDS...AT
LEAST UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN FROM
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
STRUGGLE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH A CLAMMY
EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE SUN ACROSS THE AREA HIGHS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST AREAS. WITH
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE WEATHER AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THIS
PATTERN IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY TO MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN PRIMARILY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

LEADING UPPER WAVE ALMOST EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHING OUT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS MUDDLED ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA... AND HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF ROGUE STORMS POP UP SOUTH AND WEST
OF KONL. THROUGH THE LATTER AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AGREE WITH VIEW OF
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THRU 00Z. WITH
LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THE EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK...SO WEAK THAT DEEP BULK SHEAR IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION TO ANY DEGREE. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF 600-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A PULSY MULTICELL
TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS FAVORING NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRINGE OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOLS. IF THERE IS
ANY MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL RISK...LIKELY A 5 TO 8 PM WINDOW WOULD
CAPTURE ANY THREAT ACROSS THE AREAS NEAR THE JAMES RIVER AND
WESTWARD.

FURTHER EAST...LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THREAT WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS ADVECTIVE SPEEDS WILL BE MINIMAL. VERY POSSIBLE THAT
ANY CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL FADE PRIOR TO PUSHING
MUCH PAST I 29. MOVING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME BETTER DEEP DYNAMICS WRAP UP
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL ALSO BE
THROWN BACK WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...WITH LOWS FAIRLY
MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

ON SATURDAY...LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
AND PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE DAY. WIDE EXPANSE OF LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTION
IN MOST SOLUTIONS IS THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK LOWER CLOUDS...AT
LEAST UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN FROM
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
STRUGGLE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH A CLAMMY
EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE SUN ACROSS THE AREA HIGHS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST AREAS. WITH
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE WEATHER AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THIS
PATTERN IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY TO MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING HIT OR MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WE WILL SEE THESE CEILINGS
IMPROVE TOWARDS MIDDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 242307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
607 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN PRIMARILY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

LEADING UPPER WAVE ALMOST EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHING OUT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS MUDDLED ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA... AND HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF ROGUE STORMS POP UP SOUTH AND WEST
OF KONL. THROUGH THE LATTER AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AGREE WITH VIEW OF
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THRU 00Z. WITH
LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THE EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK...SO WEAK THAT DEEP BULK SHEAR IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION TO ANY DEGREE. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF 600-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A PULSY MULTICELL
TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS FAVORING NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRINGE OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOLS. IF THERE IS
ANY MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL RISK...LIKELY A 5 TO 8 PM WINDOW WOULD
CAPTURE ANY THREAT ACROSS THE AREAS NEAR THE JAMES RIVER AND
WESTWARD.

FURTHER EAST...LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THREAT WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS ADVECTIVE SPEEDS WILL BE MINIMAL. VERY POSSIBLE THAT
ANY CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL FADE PRIOR TO PUSHING
MUCH PAST I 29. MOVING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME BETTER DEEP DYNAMICS WRAP UP
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL ALSO BE
THROWN BACK WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...WITH LOWS FAIRLY
MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

ON SATURDAY...LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
AND PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE DAY. WIDE EXPANSE OF LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTION
IN MOST SOLUTIONS IS THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK LOWER CLOUDS...AT
LEAST UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN FROM
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
STRUGGLE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH A CLAMMY
EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE SUN ACROSS THE AREA HIGHS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST AREAS. WITH
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE WEATHER AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THIS
PATTERN IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY TO MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
GREATER CHANCES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 242307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
607 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN PRIMARILY THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

LEADING UPPER WAVE ALMOST EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHING OUT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS MUDDLED ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA... AND HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF ROGUE STORMS POP UP SOUTH AND WEST
OF KONL. THROUGH THE LATTER AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AGREE WITH VIEW OF
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THRU 00Z. WITH
LOCATION WELL NORTH OF THE EVOLUTION OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK...SO WEAK THAT DEEP BULK SHEAR IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION TO ANY DEGREE. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF 600-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A PULSY MULTICELL
TYPE OF ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS FAVORING NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRINGE OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOLS. IF THERE IS
ANY MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL RISK...LIKELY A 5 TO 8 PM WINDOW WOULD
CAPTURE ANY THREAT ACROSS THE AREAS NEAR THE JAMES RIVER AND
WESTWARD.

FURTHER EAST...LIKELY TO BE VERY LITTLE THREAT WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS ADVECTIVE SPEEDS WILL BE MINIMAL. VERY POSSIBLE THAT
ANY CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL FADE PRIOR TO PUSHING
MUCH PAST I 29. MOVING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME BETTER DEEP DYNAMICS WRAP UP
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL ALSO BE
THROWN BACK WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES...WITH LOWS FAIRLY
MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

ON SATURDAY...LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE
AND PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE DAY. WIDE EXPANSE OF LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND SUGGESTION
IN MOST SOLUTIONS IS THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK LOWER CLOUDS...AT
LEAST UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS NOSING IN FROM
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
STRUGGLE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH A CLAMMY
EASTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE SUN ACROSS THE AREA HIGHS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST AREAS. WITH
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE WEATHER AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THIS
PATTERN IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY TO MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
GREATER CHANCES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM





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