Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KFSD 260910
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING/SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN
AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE. TOUGH TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY AS MODELS
SHOWING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GREATEST CONSENSUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE FOCUS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AS MID LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EAST BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS KEEPS CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS A REASONABLE IDEA AND WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED...THOUGH KEEPING FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE...SOME OF WHICH PRODUCE BULLSEYES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE IN
3-6 HOURS. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED PRECIP THREAT...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
HUMID DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH CLEARING AND SHARPLY LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COOL FRONT MOVES IN. THIS
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER BY DAYBREAK...LEADING TO A MORE COMFORTABLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WILL NOT TAKE LONG ON SUNDAY FOR BRISK WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...LIKELY THE FIRST TWO TO THREE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
WILL BE A WINDY DAY...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAINLY
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL ALSO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
VERY CYCLONIC AND COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.  OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS QUIET SUBSIDENT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DIABATIC CUMULUS DEPTH.
TEMPS EVEN IN THE FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH MANAGE CLOUDS UP
TOWARD 700 HPA FAIL TO SUGGEST ANY IMPACTFUL ICE PROCESS...SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE A FEATURE OF THIS
CLOUD FIELD.  ADDED IN A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM LATER MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AS ANY LIFTING
PROCESS HERE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.

COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS YET ON MONDAY...WILL BE ABLE TO
GET A LITTLE BETTER MIXING AGAIN FOR SOME WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SOME EACH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CLOSER TO MIXED NUMBERS WHICH WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME AROUND.  STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ARE A BIT WARMER THAN RAW MIXING
COULD ATTAIN.

A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO SET UP A STABLE WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLACING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SQUARELY IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTER
A BIT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THIS UPCOMING WEEK COULD
ACTUALLY END UP ONE OF THE LEAST WINDY PERIODS OF THE SUMMER...
AS IT IS VERY HARD TO SCRAPE UP EVEN 10 KNOTS FOR THE MIXED LAYER
UNTIL PERHAPS WEEKS END. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE TREATED THINGS
IN A SOMEWHAT MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MODE...AS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
SMALL ALTERATIONS IN TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. SHADED OVERNIGHT
LOWS TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IF NOT BELOW...GIVEN
ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF DRIFTING BELOW OPERATIONAL NUMBERS AND AWAY
FROM CLIMATOLOGY. FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD HAS 850 HPA TEMPS FROM
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ALSO...TRAJECTORY WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR RETURN TO SMOKY CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHERN CANADIAN FIRES...AND THIS COULD HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON
MAINLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE FURTHER HEDGED
JUST A BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE ON HIGHS AS WELL.

MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL ILL-TIMED AND ILL-DEFINED WAVES IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH SWING THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT TO FRIDAY WINDOW.
WOULD BE PRETTY SURPRISED TO NOT END UP WITH SOME TYPE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONSIDERING HOW COOL ALOFT IT
REMAINS. HOWEVER...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD
OR LOCATION FOR MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT KFSD AND KSUX.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFSD 260910
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING/SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN
AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE. TOUGH TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY AS MODELS
SHOWING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GREATEST CONSENSUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE FOCUS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AS MID LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EAST BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS KEEPS CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS A REASONABLE IDEA AND WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED...THOUGH KEEPING FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE...SOME OF WHICH PRODUCE BULLSEYES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE IN
3-6 HOURS. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED PRECIP THREAT...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
HUMID DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH CLEARING AND SHARPLY LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COOL FRONT MOVES IN. THIS
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER BY DAYBREAK...LEADING TO A MORE COMFORTABLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WILL NOT TAKE LONG ON SUNDAY FOR BRISK WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...LIKELY THE FIRST TWO TO THREE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
WILL BE A WINDY DAY...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAINLY
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL ALSO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
VERY CYCLONIC AND COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.  OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS QUIET SUBSIDENT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DIABATIC CUMULUS DEPTH.
TEMPS EVEN IN THE FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH MANAGE CLOUDS UP
TOWARD 700 HPA FAIL TO SUGGEST ANY IMPACTFUL ICE PROCESS...SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE A FEATURE OF THIS
CLOUD FIELD.  ADDED IN A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM LATER MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AS ANY LIFTING
PROCESS HERE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.

COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS YET ON MONDAY...WILL BE ABLE TO
GET A LITTLE BETTER MIXING AGAIN FOR SOME WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SOME EACH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CLOSER TO MIXED NUMBERS WHICH WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME AROUND.  STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ARE A BIT WARMER THAN RAW MIXING
COULD ATTAIN.

A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO SET UP A STABLE WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLACING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SQUARELY IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTER
A BIT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THIS UPCOMING WEEK COULD
ACTUALLY END UP ONE OF THE LEAST WINDY PERIODS OF THE SUMMER...
AS IT IS VERY HARD TO SCRAPE UP EVEN 10 KNOTS FOR THE MIXED LAYER
UNTIL PERHAPS WEEKS END. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE TREATED THINGS
IN A SOMEWHAT MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MODE...AS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
SMALL ALTERATIONS IN TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. SHADED OVERNIGHT
LOWS TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IF NOT BELOW...GIVEN
ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF DRIFTING BELOW OPERATIONAL NUMBERS AND AWAY
FROM CLIMATOLOGY. FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD HAS 850 HPA TEMPS FROM
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ALSO...TRAJECTORY WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR RETURN TO SMOKY CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHERN CANADIAN FIRES...AND THIS COULD HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON
MAINLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE FURTHER HEDGED
JUST A BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE ON HIGHS AS WELL.

MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL ILL-TIMED AND ILL-DEFINED WAVES IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH SWING THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT TO FRIDAY WINDOW.
WOULD BE PRETTY SURPRISED TO NOT END UP WITH SOME TYPE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONSIDERING HOW COOL ALOFT IT
REMAINS. HOWEVER...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD
OR LOCATION FOR MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT KFSD AND KSUX.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFSD 260354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATO-CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND DRIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WASHOUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
FAILING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HAMPERING AFTERNOON MIXING/HEATING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AS
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TROUGH BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.  SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCAPE PLOTS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT DOUBTFUL
GIVEN ELEVATED LIFTING LEVEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE REALIZED.
STILL...COULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  PROBABILITY PLOTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NIL
EVENT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AS MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE TRICKY WITH MODELS PLACING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL DECK
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.  WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT...PROHIBITING DEEP MIXING AND THUS WILL KEEP WITH A NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PD IS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW US
WITH RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AND
H5 LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH LARGER SCALE DETAILS THAT
A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL BE SUFFICIENT. AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY
IS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD TEMPS START
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT KFSD AND KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFSD 260354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATO-CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND DRIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WASHOUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
FAILING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HAMPERING AFTERNOON MIXING/HEATING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AS
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TROUGH BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.  SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCAPE PLOTS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT DOUBTFUL
GIVEN ELEVATED LIFTING LEVEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE REALIZED.
STILL...COULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  PROBABILITY PLOTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NIL
EVENT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AS MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE TRICKY WITH MODELS PLACING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL DECK
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.  WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT...PROHIBITING DEEP MIXING AND THUS WILL KEEP WITH A NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PD IS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW US
WITH RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AND
H5 LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH LARGER SCALE DETAILS THAT
A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL BE SUFFICIENT. AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY
IS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD TEMPS START
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT KFSD AND KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFSD 252307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
607 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATO-CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND DRIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WASHOUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
FAILING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HAMPERING AFTERNOON MIXING/HEATING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AS
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TROUGH BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.  SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCAPE PLOTS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT DOUBTFUL
GIVEN ELEVATED LIFTING LEVEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE REALIZED.
STILL...COULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  PROBABILITY PLOTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NIL
EVENT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AS MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE TRICKY WITH MODELS PLACING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL DECK
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.  WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT...PROHIBITING DEEP MIXING AND THUS WILL KEEP WITH A NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PD IS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW US
WITH RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AND
H5 LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH LARGER SCALE DETAILS THAT
A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL BE SUFFICIENT. AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY
IS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD TEMPS START
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGTH AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFSD 252307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
607 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATO-CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND DRIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WASHOUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
FAILING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HAMPERING AFTERNOON MIXING/HEATING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AS
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TROUGH BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.  SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCAPE PLOTS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT DOUBTFUL
GIVEN ELEVATED LIFTING LEVEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE REALIZED.
STILL...COULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  PROBABILITY PLOTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NIL
EVENT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AS MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE TRICKY WITH MODELS PLACING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL DECK
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.  WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT...PROHIBITING DEEP MIXING AND THUS WILL KEEP WITH A NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PD IS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW US
WITH RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AND
H5 LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH LARGER SCALE DETAILS THAT
A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL BE SUFFICIENT. AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY
IS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD TEMPS START
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LIGTH AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...JM








000
FXUS63 KFSD 252024
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATO-CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND DRIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WASHOUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
FAILING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HAMPERING AFTERNOON MIXING/HEATING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS AS
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA TROUGH BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.  SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
MODELS STILL SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCAPE PLOTS SUGGEST 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE...BUT DOUBTFUL
GIVEN ELEVATED LIFTING LEVEL THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE REALIZED.
STILL...COULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  PROBABILITY PLOTS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NIL
EVENT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AS MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE TRICKY WITH MODELS PLACING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL DECK
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY AND QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN THE MORNING.  WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
LIGHT...PROHIBITING DEEP MIXING AND THUS WILL KEEP WITH A NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PD IS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/SW US
WITH RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AND
H5 LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH LARGER SCALE DETAILS THAT
A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL BE SUFFICIENT. AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY
IS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD TEMPS START
SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES LATE NEXT WEEK
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH
STRATO-CU ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY LINGER
AROUND THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH FSD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH SUX. WINDS HAVE NOT
GUSTED MUCH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHOULD GUSTS NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.

OVERNIGHT QUESTIONS CONTINUE TO HINGE ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE MO RIVER...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS SPREAD FURTHER NE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. TIMING OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE AFTER 09Z...AND
LIKELY AFTER 12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX








000
FXUS63 KFSD 251659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER EARLY MORNING WEAK FORCING FOR LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EXTREME NORTH/EAST WITH CONTINUED VEERING OF 45-55KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL BE SETTLING IN TODAY TO ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREME WARMTH
ALOFT. WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AT 08Z AND ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRENGTH OF INVERSION IN PLACE...SO DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ONCE INITIATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. SHOULD NOT BE A BULK OF DAY AFFAIR FOR ANYONE
WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH TO LIMIT
AREA AND COVERAGE...AT LEAST TO A POINT TO ANTICIPATE BUT A MINOR
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO GET MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HEAT INDEX DOES ACTUALLY APPROACH 100 IN THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LINGERING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WHERE A BETTER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT...RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT BETTER OVERALL ON
SHOWING THE DRYING POTENTIAL WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD LOSE A
FAIR CHUNK OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE EVENING...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME CONSIDERATION TO MENTIONING A LITTLE FOG
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BY LATER TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS MODESTLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVES
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAKER
RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION/FRONTAL FORCING AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PROGRESSES TOWARD AREA. THIS TYPE OF FRONTAL FORCING
OFTEN OCCURS AT A PACE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT
WILL ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF DRYING OF LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHING INTO
AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO SLOW UP PRECIP THREAT.
ARW SUBSET OF THE SREF ARE HIGHLY IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...BUT FAIL TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE AS
FAR NORTH AS MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT NORTH
OF ZONAL...AND ANY HIGH PLAINS INITIATION DURING THE NIGHT MORE
LIKELY TO WANDER A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINLY HIT SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA WITH MODERATE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION MENTION...MAINLY 09-12Z WINDOW.  GIVEN JUST A
BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COULD EASILY
INDUCE JUST A BIT MORE CROSS FRONTAL FLOW AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE GFS
AND NAM STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF HAVE INSTABILITY
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES...AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THUS COULD SEE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
MORNING. BUT THIS IS REALLY CONTINGENT ON GETTING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. FOR THAT REASON WILL ONLY MENTION
NONSEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE BUT WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH AND SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 POPS OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER. NEAR THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED AND IF THERE IS FULL
SUN...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REAL QUESTION IS THE EFFECT OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW LONG CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ANVIL CIRRUS MOVING EAST WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS ONE GOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SO THIS IS A RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER 30 MPH ON SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME WELL MIXED. THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MN BUT DO STILL EXPECT SOME CAPPED
STRATOCUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WINDS
DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER
80S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH 50S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS TRIES TO
MOVE THIS HIGH EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM
AND BRING MOISTURE AND EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY. BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THIS PATTERN
SEE NO REASON WHY THE HIGH WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS
MEANS DRY WEATHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE LOW FOR JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DID KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST
OF I29 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF I-29. DID BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SO HIGHS WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH
STRATO-CU ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY LINGER
AROUND THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH FSD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH SUX. WINDS HAVE NOT
GUSTED MUCH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHOULD GUSTS NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.

OVERNIGHT QUESTIONS CONTINUE TO HINGE ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE MO RIVER...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS SPREAD FURTHER NE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. TIMING OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE AFTER 09Z...AND
LIKELY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX







000
FXUS63 KFSD 251659
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER EARLY MORNING WEAK FORCING FOR LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EXTREME NORTH/EAST WITH CONTINUED VEERING OF 45-55KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL BE SETTLING IN TODAY TO ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREME WARMTH
ALOFT. WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AT 08Z AND ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRENGTH OF INVERSION IN PLACE...SO DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ONCE INITIATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. SHOULD NOT BE A BULK OF DAY AFFAIR FOR ANYONE
WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH TO LIMIT
AREA AND COVERAGE...AT LEAST TO A POINT TO ANTICIPATE BUT A MINOR
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO GET MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HEAT INDEX DOES ACTUALLY APPROACH 100 IN THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LINGERING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WHERE A BETTER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT...RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT BETTER OVERALL ON
SHOWING THE DRYING POTENTIAL WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD LOSE A
FAIR CHUNK OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE EVENING...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME CONSIDERATION TO MENTIONING A LITTLE FOG
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BY LATER TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS MODESTLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVES
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAKER
RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION/FRONTAL FORCING AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PROGRESSES TOWARD AREA. THIS TYPE OF FRONTAL FORCING
OFTEN OCCURS AT A PACE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT
WILL ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF DRYING OF LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHING INTO
AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO SLOW UP PRECIP THREAT.
ARW SUBSET OF THE SREF ARE HIGHLY IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...BUT FAIL TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE AS
FAR NORTH AS MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT NORTH
OF ZONAL...AND ANY HIGH PLAINS INITIATION DURING THE NIGHT MORE
LIKELY TO WANDER A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINLY HIT SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA WITH MODERATE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION MENTION...MAINLY 09-12Z WINDOW.  GIVEN JUST A
BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COULD EASILY
INDUCE JUST A BIT MORE CROSS FRONTAL FLOW AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE GFS
AND NAM STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF HAVE INSTABILITY
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES...AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THUS COULD SEE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
MORNING. BUT THIS IS REALLY CONTINGENT ON GETTING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. FOR THAT REASON WILL ONLY MENTION
NONSEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE BUT WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH AND SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 POPS OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER. NEAR THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED AND IF THERE IS FULL
SUN...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REAL QUESTION IS THE EFFECT OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW LONG CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ANVIL CIRRUS MOVING EAST WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS ONE GOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SO THIS IS A RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER 30 MPH ON SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME WELL MIXED. THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MN BUT DO STILL EXPECT SOME CAPPED
STRATOCUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WINDS
DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER
80S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH 50S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS TRIES TO
MOVE THIS HIGH EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM
AND BRING MOISTURE AND EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY. BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THIS PATTERN
SEE NO REASON WHY THE HIGH WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS
MEANS DRY WEATHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE LOW FOR JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DID KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST
OF I29 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF I-29. DID BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SO HIGHS WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH
STRATO-CU ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY LINGER
AROUND THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH FSD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH SUX. WINDS HAVE NOT
GUSTED MUCH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHOULD GUSTS NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.

OVERNIGHT QUESTIONS CONTINUE TO HINGE ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE MO RIVER...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS SPREAD FURTHER NE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. TIMING OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE AFTER 09Z...AND
LIKELY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX








000
FXUS63 KFSD 251152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
652 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER EARLY MORNING WEAK FORCING FOR LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EXTREME NORTH/EAST WITH CONTINUED VEERING OF 45-55KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL BE SETTLING IN TODAY TO ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREME WARMTH
ALOFT. WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AT 08Z AND ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRENGTH OF INVERSION IN PLACE...SO DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ONCE INITIATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. SHOULD NOT BE A BULK OF DAY AFFAIR FOR ANYONE
WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH TO LIMIT
AREA AND COVERAGE...AT LEAST TO A POINT TO ANTICIPATE BUT A MINOR
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO GET MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HEAT INDEX DOES ACTUALLY APPROACH 100 IN THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LINGERING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WHERE A BETTER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT...RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT BETTER OVERALL ON
SHOWING THE DRYING POTENTIAL WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD LOSE A
FAIR CHUNK OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE EVENING...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME CONSIDERATION TO MENTIONING A LITTLE FOG
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BY LATER TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS MODESTLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVES
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAKER
RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION/FRONTAL FORCING AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PROGRESSES TOWARD AREA. THIS TYPE OF FRONTAL FORCING
OFTEN OCCURS AT A PACE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT
WILL ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF DRYING OF LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHING INTO
AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO SLOW UP PRECIP THREAT.
ARW SUBSET OF THE SREF ARE HIGHLY IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...BUT FAIL TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE AS
FAR NORTH AS MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT NORTH
OF ZONAL...AND ANY HIGH PLAINS INITIATION DURING THE NIGHT MORE
LIKELY TO WANDER A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINLY HIT SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA WITH MODERATE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION MENTION...MAINLY 09-12Z WINDOW.  GIVEN JUST A
BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COULD EASILY
INDUCE JUST A BIT MORE CROSS FRONTAL FLOW AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE GFS
AND NAM STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF HAVE INSTABILITY
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES...AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THUS COULD SEE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
MORNING. BUT THIS IS REALLY CONTINGENT ON GETTING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. FOR THAT REASON WILL ONLY MENTION
NONSEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE BUT WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH AND SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 POPS OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER. NEAR THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED AND IF THERE IS FULL
SUN...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REAL QUESTION IS THE EFFECT OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW LONG CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ANVIL CIRRUS MOVING EAST WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS ONE GOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SO THIS IS A RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER 30 MPH ON SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME WELL MIXED. THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MN BUT DO STILL EXPECT SOME CAPPED
STRATOCUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WINDS
DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER
80S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH 50S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS TRIES TO
MOVE THIS HIGH EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM
AND BRING MOISTURE AND EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY. BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THIS PATTERN
SEE NO REASON WHY THE HIGH WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS
MEANS DRY WEATHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE LOW FOR JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DID KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST
OF I29 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF I-29. DID BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SO HIGHS WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE TAF PERIOD IS THE DETERMINATION IF ANY
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING
AN AREA OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS FORM BETWEEN KSUX AND KFSD EASTWARD...
IN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER CHANCES FOR A LOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT KFSD AND
KSUX WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE. EXPECT THAT ONCE GET MORE DIURNAL
HEATING...WILL FIND AREA OF LOWER STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN THESE CLOUDS AND THE LOCATION OF FRONTAL ZONE WORKING
SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE POSTFRONTAL CUMULUS
AROUND KHON BY MIDDAY.  WITH DRYING PUSH LOSING ITS PUNCH TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...POSSIBLE THAT LATER TONIGHT COULD GET SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 250858
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AFTER EARLY MORNING WEAK FORCING FOR LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
EXTREME NORTH/EAST WITH CONTINUED VEERING OF 45-55KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL BE SETTLING IN TODAY TO ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREME WARMTH
ALOFT. WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AT 08Z AND ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRENGTH OF INVERSION IN PLACE...SO DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ONCE INITIATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. SHOULD NOT BE A BULK OF DAY AFFAIR FOR ANYONE
WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH TO LIMIT
AREA AND COVERAGE...AT LEAST TO A POINT TO ANTICIPATE BUT A MINOR
IMPACT ON POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TO GET MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HEAT INDEX DOES ACTUALLY APPROACH 100 IN THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LINGERING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WHERE A BETTER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT...RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT BETTER OVERALL ON
SHOWING THE DRYING POTENTIAL WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD LOSE A
FAIR CHUNK OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE EVENING...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME CONSIDERATION TO MENTIONING A LITTLE FOG
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BY LATER TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS MODESTLY STRONG JET STREAK MOVES
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAKER
RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION/FRONTAL FORCING AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION PROGRESSES TOWARD AREA. THIS TYPE OF FRONTAL FORCING
OFTEN OCCURS AT A PACE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT
WILL ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF DRYING OF LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHING INTO
AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO SLOW UP PRECIP THREAT.
ARW SUBSET OF THE SREF ARE HIGHLY IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION...BUT FAIL TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE AS
FAR NORTH AS MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT NORTH
OF ZONAL...AND ANY HIGH PLAINS INITIATION DURING THE NIGHT MORE
LIKELY TO WANDER A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINLY HIT SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA WITH MODERATE
CHANCE PRECIPITATION MENTION...MAINLY 09-12Z WINDOW.  GIVEN JUST A
BIT MORE INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COULD EASILY
INDUCE JUST A BIT MORE CROSS FRONTAL FLOW AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
THREAT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE GFS
AND NAM STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF HAVE INSTABILITY
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES...AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THUS COULD SEE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
MORNING. BUT THIS IS REALLY CONTINGENT ON GETTING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. FOR THAT REASON WILL ONLY MENTION
NONSEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE BUT WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH AND SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 POPS OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER. NEAR THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED AND IF THERE IS FULL
SUN...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE REAL QUESTION IS THE EFFECT OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW LONG CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ANVIL CIRRUS MOVING EAST WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS ONE GOES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SO THIS IS A RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST OVER 30 MPH ON SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME WELL MIXED. THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS IN SW MN BUT DO STILL EXPECT SOME CAPPED
STRATOCUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WINDS
DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWER
80S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH 50S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS PLACES A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS TRIES TO
MOVE THIS HIGH EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM
AND BRING MOISTURE AND EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY. BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THIS PATTERN
SEE NO REASON WHY THE HIGH WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS
MEANS DRY WEATHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE LOW FOR JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DID KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST
OF I29 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF I-29. DID BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SO HIGHS WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPLIT OUR
CWA...AND THEN REFORM TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THE NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
STORMS MAY BUILD SOUTH AND IMPACT KHON. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAST THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL STRATUS AND STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS LIKE WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SIGNAL IN THE GFS...NAM AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE KFSD AND KHON
TAF. IF MORNING STRATUS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND BE BASED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY LINGER
AT LEAST INTO MID AFTERNOON....BASED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 250405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPLIT OUR
CWA...AND THEN REFORM TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THE NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
STORMS MAY BUILD SOUTH AND IMPACT KHON. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAST THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL STRATUS AND STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS LIKE WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SIGNAL IN THE GFS...NAM AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE KFSD AND KHON
TAF. IF MORNING STRATUS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND BE BASED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY LINGER
AT LEAST INTO MID AFTERNOON....BASED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD











000
FXUS63 KFSD 250405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPLIT OUR
CWA...AND THEN REFORM TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THE NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
STORMS MAY BUILD SOUTH AND IMPACT KHON. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAST THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL STRATUS AND STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS LIKE WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SIGNAL IN THE GFS...NAM AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE KFSD AND KHON
TAF. IF MORNING STRATUS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND BE BASED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY LINGER
AT LEAST INTO MID AFTERNOON....BASED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD










000
FXUS63 KFSD 242353
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
653 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPLIT OUR CWA...AND
THEN REFORM TO OUR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SO
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAST THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL STRATUS AND STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS LIKE WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS
WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE KFSD AND KHON TAF.
IF MORNING STRATUS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND
BE BASED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON....BASED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 242353
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
653 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPLIT OUR CWA...AND
THEN REFORM TO OUR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH SO
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAST THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL STRATUS AND STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SEEMS LIKE WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS
WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE KFSD AND KHON TAF.
IF MORNING STRATUS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND
BE BASED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL LIKELY LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON....BASED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 241951
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. BUT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY NEED
WATCHED INTO LATE THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...AS A STOUT LOW LEVEL
JET REMAINS JUXTAPOSED RIGHT IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL GIVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME SO LEFT OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES THE
MENTION OF TSRA. KFSD MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS SCENARIO SO
DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE AMENDMENTS INVOLVING CONVECTION.
BUT ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KSUX FOR REDEVELOPMENT BUT
MUCH OF THEIR ACTIVITY MAY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KHON MAY
ALSO SEE MOST OF THEIR ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. SO MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT KFSD THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ANY STRONG STORMS...BRIEF HAIL
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF
OUR AREA. CONCERNING WINDS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT FOR NOW LEFT THE MENTION OF NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS BECAUSE SURFACE
SPEEDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF IT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 241951
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...FROM NORTH OF FSD AND OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THE
REST OF THIS AFTN. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE OR BRIEFLY END EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD GET BACK CLOSE TO FSD THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS HERE
JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST AS INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FIGHT A
CAP...THOUGH WITH THAT LLJ SHIFTING EAST AM TEMPED TO DROP.

STORMS SHOULD DEFINITELY DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL QUICKLY END WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THERMAL AND WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SMALL MENTION FAR EAST EARLY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY. FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH AROUND 90 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF
DIGGING CANADIAN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE SIOUX
CITY AREA. WILL MENTION AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL
BE MILD. ANY STORMS FAR SOUTH SHOULD END BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
MORE STABLE AIR SETS IN.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING COOLING. WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT BEING
STRONGER THAN AT LOWER LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AS THE CANADIAN LOW DIGS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
WILL KEEP IN GIVEN THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY
SHORT WAVE PASSING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO TIME AND AM TEMPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE ALMOST
DOING THAT ANYWAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD...THAT IS BELOW NORMAL...WITH AT MOST WEAK WARMING GIVEN THE
ANCHORED NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTER WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST WARMING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAYS...THE GFS
WITH A BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE EC WITH A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SOUTH OF A HUGE DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. BUT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY NEED
WATCHED INTO LATE THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...AS A STOUT LOW LEVEL
JET REMAINS JUXTAPOSED RIGHT IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL GIVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME SO LEFT OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES THE
MENTION OF TSRA. KFSD MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS SCENARIO SO
DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE AMENDMENTS INVOLVING CONVECTION.
BUT ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KSUX FOR REDEVELOPMENT BUT
MUCH OF THEIR ACTIVITY MAY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KHON MAY
ALSO SEE MOST OF THEIR ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. SO MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT KFSD THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ANY STRONG STORMS...BRIEF HAIL
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF
OUR AREA. CONCERNING WINDS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT FOR NOW LEFT THE MENTION OF NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS BECAUSE SURFACE
SPEEDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF IT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 241728
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE TWEAKED POPS THIS MORNING AND RAISED THEM IN EAST CENTRAL SD...
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MOVING
THROUGH. A FEW CELLS GET A BIT ANGRY ALOFT...BUT THEN CORES
COLLAPSE SO THUS ONLY ONE WARNING SO FAR. THE CELLS ARE ROOTED
NEAR 750MB SO THE WIND SHEAR IN MOST OF THE LOWEST 2KM IS NOT
BEING TAPPED. BUT THEY ARE HOLDING TOGETHER ALONG POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AND WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT SOUTHWEST MN AND FAR NORTHWEST
IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE UNCERTAIN IS WHAT THE CLUSTER IN
EASTERN ND AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SD WILL DO. HAD TO KEEP SOME
DECENT POPS GOING IN SOUTHWEST MN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND
MAY HAVE TO RAISE THEM IF THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. HIGHS
STILL LOOK VERY WARM IN OUR FAR WEST...COOLING TO AROUND THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 IN OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. BUT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY NEED
WATCHED INTO LATE THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...AS A STOUT LOW LEVEL
JET REMAINS JUXTAPOSED RIGHT IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL GIVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME SO LEFT OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES THE
MENTION OF TSRA. KFSD MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS SCENARIO SO
DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE AMENDMENTS INVOLVING CONVECTION.
BUT ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KSUX FOR REDEVELOPMENT BUT
MUCH OF THEIR ACTIVITY MAY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KHON MAY
ALSO SEE MOST OF THEIR ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. SO MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT KFSD THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ANY STRONG STORMS...BRIEF HAIL
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF
OUR AREA. CONCERNING WINDS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT FOR NOW LEFT THE MENTION OF NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS BECAUSE SURFACE
SPEEDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF IT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 241728
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE TWEAKED POPS THIS MORNING AND RAISED THEM IN EAST CENTRAL SD...
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MOVING
THROUGH. A FEW CELLS GET A BIT ANGRY ALOFT...BUT THEN CORES
COLLAPSE SO THUS ONLY ONE WARNING SO FAR. THE CELLS ARE ROOTED
NEAR 750MB SO THE WIND SHEAR IN MOST OF THE LOWEST 2KM IS NOT
BEING TAPPED. BUT THEY ARE HOLDING TOGETHER ALONG POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AND WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT SOUTHWEST MN AND FAR NORTHWEST
IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE UNCERTAIN IS WHAT THE CLUSTER IN
EASTERN ND AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SD WILL DO. HAD TO KEEP SOME
DECENT POPS GOING IN SOUTHWEST MN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND
MAY HAVE TO RAISE THEM IF THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. HIGHS
STILL LOOK VERY WARM IN OUR FAR WEST...COOLING TO AROUND THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 IN OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. BUT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY NEED
WATCHED INTO LATE THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...AS A STOUT LOW LEVEL
JET REMAINS JUXTAPOSED RIGHT IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL GIVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME SO LEFT OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES THE
MENTION OF TSRA. KFSD MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS SCENARIO SO
DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE AMENDMENTS INVOLVING CONVECTION.
BUT ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KSUX FOR REDEVELOPMENT BUT
MUCH OF THEIR ACTIVITY MAY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. KHON MAY
ALSO SEE MOST OF THEIR ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. SO MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT KFSD THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ANY STRONG STORMS...BRIEF HAIL
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF
OUR AREA. CONCERNING WINDS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT FOR NOW LEFT THE MENTION OF NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS BECAUSE SURFACE
SPEEDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF IT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 241621
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE TWEAKED POPS THIS MORNING AND RAISED THEM IN EAST CENTRAL SD...
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MOVING
THROUGH. A FEW CELLS GET A BIT ANGRY ALOFT...BUT THEN CORES
COLLAPSE SO THUS ONLY ONE WARNING SO FAR. THE CELLS ARE ROOTED
NEAR 750MB SO THE WIND SHEAR IN MOST OF THE LOWEST 2KM IS NOT
BEING TAPPED. BUT THEY ARE HOLDING TOGETHER ALONG POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AND WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT SOUTHWEST MN AND FAR NORTHWEST
IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE UNCERTAIN IS WHAT THE CLUSTER IN
EASTERN ND AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SD WILL DO. HAD TO KEEP SOME
DECENT POPS GOING IN SOUTHWEST MN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND
MAY HAVE TO RAISE THEM IF THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. HIGHS
STILL LOOK VERY WARM IN OUR FAR WEST...COOLING TO AROUND THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 IN OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE KHON AREA
BY 13Z-14Z...AND MOVE TO IMPACT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITE LATER
ON IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. A HEAVIER CORE IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY TAKE VISIBILITY TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH BASED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. SURFACE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KFSD OR KSUX. ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR...WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSUX OF KFSD LATE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 241621
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE TWEAKED POPS THIS MORNING AND RAISED THEM IN EAST CENTRAL SD...
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MOVING
THROUGH. A FEW CELLS GET A BIT ANGRY ALOFT...BUT THEN CORES
COLLAPSE SO THUS ONLY ONE WARNING SO FAR. THE CELLS ARE ROOTED
NEAR 750MB SO THE WIND SHEAR IN MOST OF THE LOWEST 2KM IS NOT
BEING TAPPED. BUT THEY ARE HOLDING TOGETHER ALONG POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AND WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT SOUTHWEST MN AND FAR NORTHWEST
IA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE UNCERTAIN IS WHAT THE CLUSTER IN
EASTERN ND AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SD WILL DO. HAD TO KEEP SOME
DECENT POPS GOING IN SOUTHWEST MN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND
MAY HAVE TO RAISE THEM IF THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. HIGHS
STILL LOOK VERY WARM IN OUR FAR WEST...COOLING TO AROUND THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 IN OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE KHON AREA
BY 13Z-14Z...AND MOVE TO IMPACT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITE LATER
ON IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. A HEAVIER CORE IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY TAKE VISIBILITY TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH BASED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. SURFACE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KFSD OR KSUX. ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR...WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSUX OF KFSD LATE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 241147
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE KHON AREA
BY 13Z-14Z...AND MOVE TO IMPACT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITE LATER
ON IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. A HEAVIER CORE IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY TAKE VISIBILITY TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH BASED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. SURFACE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KFSD OR KSUX. ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR...WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSUX OF KFSD LATE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 241147
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE KHON AREA
BY 13Z-14Z...AND MOVE TO IMPACT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITE LATER
ON IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. A HEAVIER CORE IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY TAKE VISIBILITY TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH BASED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. SURFACE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KFSD OR KSUX. ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR...WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND KSUX OF KFSD LATE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN







000
FXUS63 KFSD 240923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING FSD AND SUX AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED HOWEVER DID LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE
HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN
VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KFSD 240923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...CAN SEE SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...ALL RIDING ON THE EDGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGEST WAVE BACK OVER PAC NW...BUT ONE
NICE WAVE PUSHING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE
9-10 KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN SD...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS ON MRR
PROFILER.  ALL RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND WRF-ARW HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
FROM 09Z-11Z OUT FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WESTWARD...AND MOST SOLUTION
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FOCUS...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
AXIS...SEEMS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR ACTIVITY TO
BUILD EASTWARD AS FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES DROPS SOUTHEAST

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE MID TO SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD KSUX AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT AS WAVE MOVES PAST WILL START TO WEAR ON CONVECTIVE THREAT
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS BUILDS EAST.

WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND 2-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDRAFT HELICITY ON HRRR INDICATES SOME NEED FOR
CONCERN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.

A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TODAY BE PRESENT BETWEEN WARM AND
HUMID LESS MIXED CONDITIONS...WITH A HOT...DRY...AND MORE MIXED
AIRMASS... LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
MANY AREAS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 80S...BUT SOME UPPER
70S IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP AXIS. HAVE LOWER 90S
CRAWLING BACK INTO THE WEST...AND WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL START TO BRING A BIT MORE CONCERN
TO FIRE BEHAVIOR...BUT STARTS WILL STILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HOLDING BACK TO LOWER BRULE AREA.

NOT BUYING IN TO DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH WOULD ALMOST REQUIRE THAT DEVELOPMENT
TO STORMS OCCURS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE TERRAIN/CONVERGENCE WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MASSIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT /+15
TO +16 C AT 700 HPA/ BY EVENING. RETAINED A LOW POPS DURING THE
EVENING IN THE EVENT OF OUTSIDE CHANCE DEVELOPMENT CAN EVOLVE TOWARD
MORE ELEVATED AS SPREADS EAST. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH PERHAPS A SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY CHANCE BY
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA.
FAIRLY SOUTH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WAS CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PRETTY MUCH BE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. SHOULD THUS BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY...BUT A
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS
HAVE A DECENT SPREAD...BUT OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON
RECENT RUNS. A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS...WILL PREVENT US
FROM FULLY MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SO DID GO
AHEAD AND WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE MID 80S
AND LOW 90S...BUT DID NOT GO TOO EXTREME YET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THOUGH...AS FULL MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...AND THINKING WE MAY NEED TO WARM THAT AREA UP ON FUTURE
FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY PRETTY GOOD PV ADVECTION AS WELL.
THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS THINKING IS
WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM...WITH STORM MOTIONS
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF ON THIS SOLUTION.
GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER...AND SEEMS TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION. THUS DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS...MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THIS ELEVATED PARCEL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD END UP AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG JET...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD. THUS SHOULD STORMS FORM...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WOULD SEEM TO EXIST...POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT TOO WITH THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER POSSIBLY HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW.
THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOUGH TO
FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
MORNING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR NOW STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS
OF LOW TO MID 80S...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN A FEW
DEGREES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH.

THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE STAGNANT...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN USA AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. APPEARS WE WILL STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH THE RIDGING UNABLE TO BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. NOT MUCH FORCING...BUT MOISTURE INCREASES
ENOUGH...THAT COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING FSD AND SUX AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED HOWEVER DID LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE
HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN
VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 240403
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1103 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THETAE
ADVECTION STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...APPEARS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE BASED AROUND 700 MB. AS BY LATER TONIGHT...PARCELS FROM
THIS LAYER SHOULD BE UNCAPPED...AND REALIZE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG OF CAPE. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR...HOWEVER RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUS STILL SEEMS LIKE SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORM...WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PUSHING QUARTERS. LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR...RAP AND ECMWF FOR TIMING...BRINGING STORMS INTO THE WEST
AROUND 08Z TO 09Z...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE IN A WEAKINING STATE AS THEY APPROACH INTERSTATE 29 AND POINTS
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLACKENS WITH DAYBREAK. THE 0Z NAM SEEMS
OFF AND AN OUTLIER SO WAS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. NOT A SURE BET WE
SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THESE ELEVATED EVENTS ARE ALWAYS
TRICKY...SO WILL STAY BELOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AM DEFINITELY LEANING
TOWARDS US AT LEAST SEEING SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING FSD AND SUX AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED HOWEVER DID LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE
HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN
VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KFSD 240403
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1103 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THETAE
ADVECTION STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...APPEARS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE BASED AROUND 700 MB. AS BY LATER TONIGHT...PARCELS FROM
THIS LAYER SHOULD BE UNCAPPED...AND REALIZE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG OF CAPE. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR...HOWEVER RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUS STILL SEEMS LIKE SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORM...WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PUSHING QUARTERS. LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR...RAP AND ECMWF FOR TIMING...BRINGING STORMS INTO THE WEST
AROUND 08Z TO 09Z...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE IN A WEAKINING STATE AS THEY APPROACH INTERSTATE 29 AND POINTS
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLACKENS WITH DAYBREAK. THE 0Z NAM SEEMS
OFF AND AN OUTLIER SO WAS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. NOT A SURE BET WE
SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THESE ELEVATED EVENTS ARE ALWAYS
TRICKY...SO WILL STAY BELOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AM DEFINITELY LEANING
TOWARDS US AT LEAST SEEING SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING FSD AND SUX AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED HOWEVER DID LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE
HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN
VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 240255
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
955 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THETAE
ADVECTION STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...APPEARS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE BASED AROUND 700 MB. AS BY LATER TONIGHT...PARCELS FROM
THIS LAYER SHOULD BE UNCAPPED...AND REALIZE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG OF CAPE. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST
SHEAR...HOWEVER RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THEY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUS STILL SEEMS LIKE SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORM...WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER ONES POSSIBLY PUSHING QUARTERS. LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR...RAP AND ECMWF FOR TIMING...BRINGING STORMS INTO THE WEST
AROUND 08Z TO 09Z...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE IN A WEAKINING STATE AS THEY APPROACH INTERSTATE 29 AND POINTS
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLACKENS WITH DAYBREAK. THE 0Z NAM SEEMS
OFF AND AN OUTLIER SO WAS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. NOT A SURE BET WE
SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THESE ELEVATED EVENTS ARE ALWAYS
TRICKY...SO WILL STAY BELOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AM DEFINITELY LEANING
TOWARDS US AT LEAST SEEING SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 12Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED HOWEVER DID
LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE HIGH BASED STORMS WILL
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 232356
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
656 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 12Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED HOWEVER DID
LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE HIGH BASED STORMS WILL
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KFSD 232356
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
656 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT
AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE KHON AREA FROM 09Z TO 12Z AND INTO THE I29
CORRIDOR AFTER 13Z. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED HOWEVER DID
LEAVE TEMPO MENTION AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE HIGH BASED STORMS WILL
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY IN VFR...BUT STRONGER GUSTS AND
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AFTER 12Z AND PERIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 232038
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS CONVECTION IN
THE THREE TAF SITES. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 232038
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. DEALING WITH A LOT OF THETAE WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO...THEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIRST HITTING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN EXITING OUR EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THETAE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE INVERSION IS STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WILL NOT BE TAPPED...LEAVING ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO HIT SEVERE CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WEST OF I 29. AS FAR AS POPS...STILL DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY DRY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON OF THE
PRECIP BEING ELEVATED. THEREFORE ONLY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH
IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IS GOING LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL POPS YET. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS MORPHS
OUT. AS THE PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LESS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER THETAE ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK PLEASANT TONIGHT. HOWEVER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
THETAE ADVECTION. THEREFORE AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING...STILL
LOOKING AT LOWER 90S APPROACHING CENTRAL SD...WITH A DRAMATIC DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES HEADING EAST OF THE THERE. IN FACT EAST OF THE
JAMES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STILL GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A RIDGE FLATTENING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...MAINLY
FAR EAST WHERE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE. ISOLATED STORMS STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE FAR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE. ANOTHER SUCH WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MODESTLY WARM AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH 80S HIGHS.

WHAT I DESCRIBED YESTERDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS NOR A
COOLING CANADIAN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
NORTH AND EAST OF FSD SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. SUNDAY WILL OF COURSE BE COOLER WITH MAINLY 70S HIGHS...80
OR SO SOUTHWEST. A MOSTLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT LASTING COOL PATTERN
THEN SEEMS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE EC DOES SHOW
A SHORT WAVE WITH THE RIGHT TIMING...GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER.
HOWEVER NOBODY IS GOING TO GET VERY MUCH RAIN WITH THE MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS CONVECTION IN
THE THREE TAF SITES. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ/
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ









000
FXUS63 KFSD 231953
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
253 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECTING A PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...AND
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY SPILL SOME CIRRUS INTO THE REGION AS
WELL...BUT STILL THINKING WE END UP IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CATEGORY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALOFT...WE WILL SEE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
THETAE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENCOMPASS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ROUND THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA...SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE 0Z HI RES ARW...4KM OPERATIONAL NAM AND
ECMWF. ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL GET GOING
OVERHEAD AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVES ACROSS.

SO WHILE THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SEEMS
LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF GETTING SOMETHING...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...WITH SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
AND SREF FOR POPS...AS THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS KEEPS THE
THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 12Z...SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WARMING ALOFT. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP 70S IN
THE EAST...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SEEM MOST
PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE SEE ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
AGAIN. SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS IS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET SHOULD BE. AGAIN FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND
SREF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS DEVELOPS...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION WILL
STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
WITH A STRONG CAP KEEPING ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AT BAY.

MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST...IF
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE CONTINUES...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN
DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLOW WARMING BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SO DID LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE 850 MB TEMPS OFF THE 0Z SUITE OF MODELS SUGGEST THESE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SO WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE
DECREASING HIGHS MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS CONVECTION IN
THE THREE TAF SITES. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 231953
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
253 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECTING A PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...AND
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY SPILL SOME CIRRUS INTO THE REGION AS
WELL...BUT STILL THINKING WE END UP IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CATEGORY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALOFT...WE WILL SEE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
THETAE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENCOMPASS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ROUND THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA...SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE 0Z HI RES ARW...4KM OPERATIONAL NAM AND
ECMWF. ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL GET GOING
OVERHEAD AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVES ACROSS.

SO WHILE THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SEEMS
LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF GETTING SOMETHING...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...WITH SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
AND SREF FOR POPS...AS THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS KEEPS THE
THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 12Z...SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WARMING ALOFT. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP 70S IN
THE EAST...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SEEM MOST
PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE SEE ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
AGAIN. SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS IS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET SHOULD BE. AGAIN FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND
SREF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS DEVELOPS...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION WILL
STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
WITH A STRONG CAP KEEPING ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AT BAY.

MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST...IF
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE CONTINUES...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN
DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLOW WARMING BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SO DID LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE 850 MB TEMPS OFF THE 0Z SUITE OF MODELS SUGGEST THESE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SO WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE
DECREASING HIGHS MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS CONVECTION IN
THE THREE TAF SITES. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE PRECIP...
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 231151
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
651 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECTING A PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...AND
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY SPILL SOME CIRRUS INTO THE REGION AS
WELL...BUT STILL THINKING WE END UP IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CATEGORY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALOFT...WE WILL SEE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
THETAE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENCOMPASS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ROUND THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA...SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE 0Z HI RES ARW...4KM OPERATIONAL NAM AND
ECMWF. ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL GET GOING
OVERHEAD AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVES ACROSS.

SO WHILE THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SEEMS
LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF GETTING SOMETHING...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...WITH SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
AND SREF FOR POPS...AS THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS KEEPS THE
THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 12Z...SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WARMING ALOFT. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP 70S IN
THE EAST...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SEEM MOST
PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE SEE ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
AGAIN. SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS IS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET SHOULD BE. AGAIN FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND
SREF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS DEVELOPS...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION WILL
STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
WITH A STRONG CAP KEEPING ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AT BAY.

MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST...IF
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE CONTINUES...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN
DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLOW WARMING BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SO DID LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE 850 MB TEMPS OFF THE 0Z SUITE OF MODELS SUGGEST THESE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SO WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE
DECREASING HIGHS MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. CIRRUS
BLOW OFF FROM WESTERN SD STORMS TO BE OVER LOCATIONS BEFORE
NOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
-SHRA AROUND 06Z AT KHON AND A LITTLE LATER AT KFSD AND TOWARDS
DAWN AT KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...HEITKAMP







000
FXUS63 KFSD 231151
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
651 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECTING A PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...AND
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY SPILL SOME CIRRUS INTO THE REGION AS
WELL...BUT STILL THINKING WE END UP IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CATEGORY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALOFT...WE WILL SEE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
THETAE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENCOMPASS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ROUND THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA...SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE 0Z HI RES ARW...4KM OPERATIONAL NAM AND
ECMWF. ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL GET GOING
OVERHEAD AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVES ACROSS.

SO WHILE THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SEEMS
LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF GETTING SOMETHING...SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...WITH SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
AND SREF FOR POPS...AS THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS KEEPS THE
THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 12Z...SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WARMING ALOFT. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP 70S IN
THE EAST...BUT DID RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SEEM MOST
PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE SEE ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP
AGAIN. SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS IS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET SHOULD BE. AGAIN FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND
SREF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS DEVELOPS...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION WILL
STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
WITH A STRONG CAP KEEPING ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AT BAY.

MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST...IF
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE CONTINUES...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN
DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLOW WARMING BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SO DID LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE 850 MB TEMPS OFF THE 0Z SUITE OF MODELS SUGGEST THESE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SO WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE
DECREASING HIGHS MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. CIRRUS
BLOW OFF FROM WESTERN SD STORMS TO BE OVER LOCATIONS BEFORE
NOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
-SHRA AROUND 06Z AT KHON AND A LITTLE LATER AT KFSD AND TOWARDS
DAWN AT KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...HEITKAMP








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities