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000
FXUS63 KFSD 290018
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
618 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4.  VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KFSD AND KHON LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF THIS BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG. WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL
NOT DEVELOP...SO DID NOT HIT TAFS WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS OR VISIBITY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290018
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
618 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4.  VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KFSD AND KHON LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF THIS BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG. WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL
NOT DEVELOP...SO DID NOT HIT TAFS WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS OR VISIBITY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 282054
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4.  VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR WILL CERTAINLY PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK
TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
FIRST SETUP OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AFTER SUNSET...THEN WORK
NORTH AND NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KFSD TAF SITE.
CURRENTLY EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN DO EXHIBIT SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
THERE IS A QUESTION HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS PRIMARILY THE NAM AND
RAP WHICH ARE SHOWING THIS...WHILE MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT. SO ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT WE STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO
ALL IN FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR KFSD. IT APPEARS THAT KSUX
WILL BE TOO FAR WEST IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...AND THAT
KHON MAY BE MORE IMPACTED BY JUST THE USUAL MVFR LATE NIGHT LIGHT
FOG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT KSUX VFR...AND KFSD MVFR FOR NOW
FOR TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282054
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL OR NOT. THE NAM AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IA...SOUTHWEST MN...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND EAST CENTRAL
SD. THEY BEGIN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IA...THEN EXPAND IT WEST AND NORTHWARD. THE NAM AND RAP ARE VERY
MOIST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IN FACT
SHOWING A LOT OF 1 TO 2 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION SPREADS EVEN AT
THIS TIME WHICH IS NOT VERIFYING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND ARW ARE MUCH
MORE SUBDUED...SHOWING WIDER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THUS LESS
FOG. FOR NOW...KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING FROM THE BROOKINGS AREA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE
SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG FOR ADJACENT AREAS TO THE WEST...NOT BUYING
THE NAM OR RAP OUTPUT. LATE TONIGHT A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO NUDGE EASTWARD HELPING TO ACTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HELP IN REDUCING FOG POTENTIAL...AT LEAST WEST
OF I 29. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOADED UP THE CHILLY GEM BIAS CORRECTED
VALUES FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE IA GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A
LOT OF ECMWF ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN FRONT...
WHICH WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
I 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH READINGS STILL FAIRLY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-90
TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE FOR THAT TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLD AIR
IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR OVER US ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS ON SUN
NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...SEEING TEMPS AROUND -3 TO -4.  VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH
5-10 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20 RIGHT
AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AS ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS BY THURS/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR WILL CERTAINLY PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK
TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
FIRST SETUP OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AFTER SUNSET...THEN WORK
NORTH AND NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KFSD TAF SITE.
CURRENTLY EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN DO EXHIBIT SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
THERE IS A QUESTION HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS PRIMARILY THE NAM AND
RAP WHICH ARE SHOWING THIS...WHILE MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT. SO ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT WE STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO
ALL IN FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR KFSD. IT APPEARS THAT KSUX
WILL BE TOO FAR WEST IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...AND THAT
KHON MAY BE MORE IMPACTED BY JUST THE USUAL MVFR LATE NIGHT LIGHT
FOG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT KSUX VFR...AND KFSD MVFR FOR NOW
FOR TONIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM LAYER WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP EXISTS. SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SCRAPE OUR
FAR NORTHEAST...NEAR MARSHALL...WITH LIGHT PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME STILL THINKING THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT KEEPING OUR AREA PRECIP FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH...AS
GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ADVECTING IN...ANY THING THAT DID FALL WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY EXIT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TAKE OVER. WEAK MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW US TO FULLY
REALIZE THE WARMING ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWPACK...AND
THE SUN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MELT THAT...THINK IT
WILL STILL END UP BEING A RELATIVELY MILD DAY. RELIED ON THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO A POOR JOB
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION WHEN WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND
DISSIPATING SNOW COVER. THIS RESULTS IN 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS
FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUILD UP UNDERNEATH
TODAYS INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND A WIND SHIFT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR AN EROSION OF ANY FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER...TOUGH TO REALLY ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF THE FOG THREAT. BUT
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS FOG IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SURFACE HUMIDITY SHOWS SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...AS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE AREA...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...STAYED WITH THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SNOW COVER IN
OTHER RAW GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PUSH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH COOLING
THERMO PROFILE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO MID-MORNING. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY APPROACH -20 BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABSENT SNOW COVER...EXTREME COLD IS NOT LIKELY...BUT SEVERAL AREAS
SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH RACING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR WILL CERTAINLY PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK
TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
FIRST SETUP OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AFTER SUNSET...THEN WORK
NORTH AND NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KFSD TAF SITE.
CURRENTLY EXTREME NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN DO EXHIBIT SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
THERE IS A QUESTION HOWEVER...BECAUSE IT IS PRIMARILY THE NAM AND
RAP WHICH ARE SHOWING THIS...WHILE MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT. SO ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT WE STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO
ALL IN FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR KFSD. IT APPEARS THAT KSUX
WILL BE TOO FAR WEST IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PAN OUT...AND THAT
KHON MAY BE MORE IMPACTED BY JUST THE USUAL MVFR LATE NIGHT LIGHT
FOG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT KSUX VFR...AND KFSD MVFR FOR NOW
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281158
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM LAYER WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP EXISTS. SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SCRAPE OUR
FAR NORTHEAST...NEAR MARSHALL...WITH LIGHT PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME STILL THINKING THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT KEEPING OUR AREA PRECIP FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH...AS
GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ADVECTING IN...ANY THING THAT DID FALL WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY EXIT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TAKE OVER. WEAK MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW US TO FULLY
REALIZE THE WARMING ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWPACK...AND
THE SUN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MELT THAT...THINK IT
WILL STILL END UP BEING A RELATIVELY MILD DAY. RELIED ON THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO A POOR JOB
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION WHEN WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND
DISSIPATING SNOW COVER. THIS RESULTS IN 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS
FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUILD UP UNDERNEATH
TODAYS INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND A WIND SHIFT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR AN EROSION OF ANY FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER...TOUGH TO REALLY ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF THE FOG THREAT. BUT
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS FOG IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SURFACE HUMIDITY SHOWS SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...AS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE AREA...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...STAYED WITH THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SNOW COVER IN
OTHER RAW GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PUSH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH COOLING
THERMO PROFILE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO MID-MORNING. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY APPROACH -20 BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABSENT SNOW COVER...EXTREME COLD IS NOT LIKELY...BUT SEVERAL AREAS
SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH RACING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REGARDING FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL. SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS TODAY.
GIVEN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE JUST INTRODUCED MVFR FOG INTO THE KFSD
AND KHON TAFS FOR NOW. BUT THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ACT TO CLEAR OUT ANY FOG OR
STRATUS. SO IMPROVED THE TAFS UNDER THIS ASSUMPTION...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF ANY FOG GETS DENSE ENOUGH IT COULD HANG AROUND A
LONGER INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281158
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
558 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM LAYER WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP EXISTS. SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SCRAPE OUR
FAR NORTHEAST...NEAR MARSHALL...WITH LIGHT PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME STILL THINKING THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT KEEPING OUR AREA PRECIP FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH...AS
GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ADVECTING IN...ANY THING THAT DID FALL WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY EXIT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TAKE OVER. WEAK MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW US TO FULLY
REALIZE THE WARMING ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWPACK...AND
THE SUN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MELT THAT...THINK IT
WILL STILL END UP BEING A RELATIVELY MILD DAY. RELIED ON THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO A POOR JOB
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION WHEN WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND
DISSIPATING SNOW COVER. THIS RESULTS IN 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS
FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUILD UP UNDERNEATH
TODAYS INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND A WIND SHIFT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR AN EROSION OF ANY FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER...TOUGH TO REALLY ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF THE FOG THREAT. BUT
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS FOG IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SURFACE HUMIDITY SHOWS SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...AS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE AREA...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...STAYED WITH THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SNOW COVER IN
OTHER RAW GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PUSH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH COOLING
THERMO PROFILE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO MID-MORNING. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY APPROACH -20 BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABSENT SNOW COVER...EXTREME COLD IS NOT LIKELY...BUT SEVERAL AREAS
SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH RACING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REGARDING FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL. SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS TODAY.
GIVEN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE JUST INTRODUCED MVFR FOG INTO THE KFSD
AND KHON TAFS FOR NOW. BUT THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ACT TO CLEAR OUT ANY FOG OR
STRATUS. SO IMPROVED THE TAFS UNDER THIS ASSUMPTION...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IF ANY FOG GETS DENSE ENOUGH IT COULD HANG AROUND A
LONGER INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM LAYER WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP EXISTS. SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SCRAPE OUR
FAR NORTHEAST...NEAR MARSHALL...WITH LIGHT PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME STILL THINKING THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT KEEPING OUR AREA PRECIP FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH...AS
GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ADVECTING IN...ANY THING THAT DID FALL WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY EXIT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TAKE OVER. WEAK MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW US TO FULLY
REALIZE THE WARMING ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWPACK...AND
THE SUN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MELT THAT...THINK IT
WILL STILL END UP BEING A RELATIVELY MILD DAY. RELIED ON THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO A POOR JOB
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION WHEN WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND
DISSIPATING SNOW COVER. THIS RESULTS IN 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS
FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUILD UP UNDERNEATH
TODAYS INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND A WIND SHIFT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR AN EROSION OF ANY FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER...TOUGH TO REALLY ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF THE FOG THREAT. BUT
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS FOG IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SURFACE HUMIDITY SHOWS SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...AS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE AREA...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...STAYED WITH THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SNOW COVER IN
OTHER RAW GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PUSH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH COOLING
THERMO PROFILE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO MID-MORNING. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY APPROACH -20 BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABSENT SNOW COVER...EXTREME COLD IS NOT LIKELY...BUT SEVERAL AREAS
SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH RACING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW REMAINING FLURRIES NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM LAYER WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BETTER LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP EXISTS. SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SCRAPE OUR
FAR NORTHEAST...NEAR MARSHALL...WITH LIGHT PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME STILL THINKING THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT KEEPING OUR AREA PRECIP FREE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH...AS
GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ADVECTING IN...ANY THING THAT DID FALL WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY EXIT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO TAKE OVER. WEAK MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW US TO FULLY
REALIZE THE WARMING ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWPACK...AND
THE SUN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MELT THAT...THINK IT
WILL STILL END UP BEING A RELATIVELY MILD DAY. RELIED ON THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TEMPERATURES...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO A POOR JOB
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION WHEN WE HAVE SNOW COVER AND
DISSIPATING SNOW COVER. THIS RESULTS IN 30S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS
FORMATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUILD UP UNDERNEATH
TODAYS INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND A WIND SHIFT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR AN EROSION OF ANY FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE NAM AND GFS BOUNDARY
LAYER...TOUGH TO REALLY ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF THE FOG THREAT. BUT
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS FOG IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF AND GEM SURFACE HUMIDITY SHOWS SIGNS OF THE POTENTIAL. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...AS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE AREA...SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...STAYED WITH THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF WITH TOO MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SNOW COVER IN
OTHER RAW GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PUSH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SHALLOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH COOLING
THERMO PROFILE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL INTO MID-MORNING. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY APPROACH -20 BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABSENT SNOW COVER...EXTREME COLD IS NOT LIKELY...BUT SEVERAL AREAS
SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH RACING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING TOO HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW REMAINING FLURRIES NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW REMAINING FLURRIES NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280459
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1059 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW REMAINING FLURRIES NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE SHOULD ALSO END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280103
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
703 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 4-5K FOOT LEVEL...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280103
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
703 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 4-5K FOOT LEVEL...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272201
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 4-5K FOOT LEVEL...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272201
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295 K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...WITH THE COLUMN ONLY
SATURATING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.  GIVEN THAT THIS
THE CASE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LOWS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...BUT DID SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AS THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDS ON THERE.   WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY EATING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF MELTING AND BUILDING THE INVERSION...THE
POOLED MOISTURE AND DECREASED GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL NOT WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AND WILL LIKELY FIND SEEDS OF FOG ALREADY BY MID
EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. EVENTUALLY...THE INCREASING PRE
FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FLUSH OUT THE SHALLOW CLOUDS/FOG...WHICH WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MAY FIND A GREATER
DIP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THEN STEADYING OR RISING AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DROP TEMPS AS MUCH AS MOST
GUIDANCE.

EVEN WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF WINDS IN THE SURFACE LAYER...WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OFF THE MORNING KSUX SOUNDINGS TO REACH THE UPPER
50S WITH MINIMAL MIXING. APPEARS THAT RECENT SNOWS ADVERSELY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS IN MODELS...WITH RAW
GUIDANCE FIELDS HOLDING 30S TO LOWER 40S CORRUPTING ALL THE
BLENDS. HAVE HELD ON TO VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH HAVE SUPPORT IN RAW OFF SURFACE TEMP FIELDS. WITH STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FIND TEMPS VARYING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

MAY END UP WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIR BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LOWER LEVELS DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE ICE FORMATION RANGE. MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS COMING
SOUTHWARD...AND THUS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT
FLURRIES AT MOST. WILL WAIT TO ADD THESE IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL DO WELL TO INCREASE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF EARLY
DAY READINGS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL START TO MODIFY WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MORE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...
WITH LOWEST READINGS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW STARTS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL PATTERN OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND
INVERSION SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED RIDGE WINDS FROM EAST CENTRAL SD
INTO SW MN...AND HAVE STARTED HINTS OF THIS IN CURRENT GRIDS.

BY MIDWEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BECOME SO INCONGRUOUS THAT SEEMS A
LOST CAUSE TO OUTGUESS THE UNCERTAINTY. AS AN OBJECTIVE SUITE...
CANADIAN IS BURIED IN DEEP AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...THE ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS IS SPORTING A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY DECENT MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM GENERAL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 4-5K FOOT LEVEL...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271743
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD START TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN FACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY BLUSTERY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
IT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO TONIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED THIS FAR SOUTH...SO DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FROM MARSHALL TO WINDOM. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THAT AREA. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECASTS...DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND AS ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER MAY PREVENT SKIES FROM CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.

DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF RAPID SNOW MELT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. SHOULD
STRATUS FAIL TO CLEAR THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A FEW
DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK...850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 10-12C WITH
925 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 15C ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE READINGS
ALONE WOULD PUSH NEARLY +2 SD FROM NORMAL LVLS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE QUESTIONS AGAIN FALL ON IMPACTS OF FOG/STRATUS AND RATHER POOR
MIXING. A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS ANALOG DATA SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A
40% PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 60 DEGREES THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE REAL WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREES NOT TOO
FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...IT IS ALSO FEASIBLE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONLY OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN
FACT...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT REALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SLOWED THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH PASSING NEARBY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED LOWS...AND STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. A
BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE BEGINS NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
REMARKABLE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 4-5K FOOT LEVEL...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
545 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD START TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN FACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY BLUSTERY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
IT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO TONIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED THIS FAR SOUTH...SO DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FROM MARSHALL TO WINDOM. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THAT AREA. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECASTS...DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND AS ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER MAY PREVENT SKIES FROM CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.

DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF RAPID SNOW MELT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. SHOULD
STRATUS FAIL TO CLEAR THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A FEW
DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK...850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 10-12C WITH
925 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 15C ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE READINGS
ALONE WOULD PUSH NEARLY +2 SD FROM NORMAL LVLS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE QUESTIONS AGAIN FALL ON IMPACTS OF FOG/STRATUS AND RATHER POOR
MIXING. A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS ANALOG DATA SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A
40% PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 60 DEGREES THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE REAL WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREES NOT TOO
FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...IT IS ALSO FEASIBLE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONLY OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN
FACT...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT REALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SLOWED THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH PASSING NEARBY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED LOWS...AND STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. A
BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE BEGINS NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
REMARKABLE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AM WATCHING
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHICH COULD
IMPACT KHON FOR A PERIOD MID TO LATE MORNING. CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR A PERIOD TODAY...BUT
AT THIS POINT THINK IT IS UNLIKELY. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
545 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD START TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN FACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY BLUSTERY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
IT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO TONIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED THIS FAR SOUTH...SO DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FROM MARSHALL TO WINDOM. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THAT AREA. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECASTS...DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND AS ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER MAY PREVENT SKIES FROM CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.

DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF RAPID SNOW MELT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. SHOULD
STRATUS FAIL TO CLEAR THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A FEW
DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK...850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 10-12C WITH
925 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 15C ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE READINGS
ALONE WOULD PUSH NEARLY +2 SD FROM NORMAL LVLS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE QUESTIONS AGAIN FALL ON IMPACTS OF FOG/STRATUS AND RATHER POOR
MIXING. A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS ANALOG DATA SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A
40% PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 60 DEGREES THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE REAL WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREES NOT TOO
FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...IT IS ALSO FEASIBLE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONLY OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN
FACT...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT REALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SLOWED THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH PASSING NEARBY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED LOWS...AND STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. A
BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE BEGINS NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
REMARKABLE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AM WATCHING
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHICH COULD
IMPACT KHON FOR A PERIOD MID TO LATE MORNING. CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR A PERIOD TODAY...BUT
AT THIS POINT THINK IT IS UNLIKELY. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270909
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD START TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN FACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY BLUSTERY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
IT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO TONIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED THIS FAR SOUTH...SO DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FROM MARSHALL TO WINDOM. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THAT AREA. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECASTS...DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND AS ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER MAY PREVENT SKIES FROM CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.

DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF RAPID SNOW MELT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. SHOULD
STRATUS FAIL TO CLEAR THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A FEW
DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK...850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 10-12C WITH
925 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 15C ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE READINGS
ALONE WOULD PUSH NEARLY +2 SD FROM NORMAL LVLS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE QUESTIONS AGAIN FALL ON IMPACTS OF FOG/STRATUS AND RATHER POOR
MIXING. A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS ANALOG DATA SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A
40% PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 60 DEGREES THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE REAL WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREES NOT TOO
FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...IT IS ALSO FEASIBLE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONLY OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN
FACT...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT REALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SLOWED THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH PASSING NEARBY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED LOWS...AND STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. A
BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE BEGINS NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
REMARKABLE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270909
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD START TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN FACT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY BLUSTERY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
IT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO TONIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER
WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED THIS FAR SOUTH...SO DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FROM MARSHALL TO WINDOM. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP
TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN THAT AREA. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECASTS...DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND AS ALLUDED TO IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS...DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER MAY PREVENT SKIES FROM CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.

DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GIVEN COMBINATION
OF RAPID SNOW MELT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. SHOULD
STRATUS FAIL TO CLEAR THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A FEW
DEGREES.

SATURDAY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK...850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 10-12C WITH
925 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 15C ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE READINGS
ALONE WOULD PUSH NEARLY +2 SD FROM NORMAL LVLS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE QUESTIONS AGAIN FALL ON IMPACTS OF FOG/STRATUS AND RATHER POOR
MIXING. A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS ANALOG DATA SUGGESTS AS HIGH AS A
40% PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 60 DEGREES THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE REAL WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREES NOT TOO
FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...IT IS ALSO FEASIBLE THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONLY OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN
FACT...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT REALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE SLOWED THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH PASSING NEARBY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED LOWS...AND STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. A
BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE BEGINS NEXT WEEK...BUT NO
REMARKABLE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270354
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANTICIPATE MVFR STRATUS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262305
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262156
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER SW MN AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 06Z. BUT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND WEST OF I29. AT THE SAME TIME
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN NO LOCATION WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING AND COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WINDS WILL STAY UP LONGER.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR AS IT IS
ALREADY NEAR ZERO IN EASTERN ND. SO EXPECT THAT ADVECTION ITSELF
WILL GET LOWS NEAR ZERO. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WARMER AIR WILL WORK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE LIFT. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
NOT SATURATED EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
SATURATION FROM ABOVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
30S...WHILE COLD AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA KEEPS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE
HIGHS IN THE EVENING AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALLOW FOR RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND ENHANCE LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE FOR
A SHORT TIME DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BAND. BEHIND THIS...THE MOIST LAYER SEEN TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW...1000 TO 2000 FEET OF DEPTH AS DEEPER SATURATION PULLS
EAST...WITH DECENT SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF I 29 LATER AT NIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOLDING ON TO THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE TYPICALLY
OVERDONE BY THE NAM...WILL DESERVE SOME CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO HAVE A MARKEDLY NON
DIURNAL TREND MID AND EAST...WITH QUICKER DROP WEST AND MORE
STEADY LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WINDS
BALANCE CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY WILL FIND A GREAT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH/EAST...NORTH OF A SURFACE QUASI-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BACKING WINDS MORE TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH COULD PULL THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WESTWARD. INVERSION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL LIMIT ABILITY TO MIX OUT SUCH CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE DECREASE IN GRADIENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE POOLING OF A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW MELT MOISTURE BENEATH
THE INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY NIGHT IS MUCH MORE RIPE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME HAVE MENTIONED SOME FOG
CHANCE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD BE A SLOW DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY ADVECTION REQUIRED TO REMOVE GIVEN FORMIDABLE INVERSION.
HAVE SHADED QUITE A BIT WARMER ON LOWS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
CLOUDS/FOG...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...IF NOT EVEN WARMER.

CONSENSUS ON ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW QUITE A BIT SLOWER FOR SATURDAY...
AS DRIVING JET TAKES ABOUT 6 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE THE ENTRANCE
REGION INTO POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLOWED FRONT LEAVES
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SET UP TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY
SO THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SNOW
COVER TO REMAIN BY SATURDAY MIDDAY. PATTERN IS ALMOST AN EXACT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MATCH FOR THE LOCAL EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
WARMEST MAXES. GIVEN RAW MODEL SOLUTIONS... TEMPERATURES AND EVEN
THE MOST SHALLOW MIXING WOULD HAVE SIOUX CITY RECORD HIGH OF 63
DEGREES NOT OUT OF REACH. WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT CHANGING SO
MUCH OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.

FRONT BLAST SOUTHWARD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
PROBABLY WILL NOT STOP THE FALL WITH THE END OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...AND STEADY TO SLOW FALL THEIR WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY
THAT SHOULD BE A FEW FLURRIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE ICE FAVORING ZONE. ARCTIC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WITHOUT SNOW COVER SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF MODIFYING SLIGHTLY. MONDAY MORNING WILL STILL FIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND PROSPECT FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A BRIEF STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BAROCLINICITY BEFORE NEXT TIME BOUNDARY
WAFFLES SOUTHWARD.

AGREEMENT HARDER AND HARDER TO COME BY IN LONGEST RANGES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINGING WAVE INTO
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE AREA ON LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ECMWF LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH A SIMILAR TASK WITH
SYSTEM JUST A DAY OR SO LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LONGEST
RANGES...HAVE NOT ALTERED THE LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH SIGNAL OF STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH CONCERNING IN TERMS OF
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SNOW WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW AT 12Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST 12Z-18Z TO CEILINGS
2-4K FEET AND VISIBILITIES P6SM EXCEPT VERY LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM IN BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED BY 27/00Z WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH 27/12Z. SURFACE
GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST UNTIL 22Z.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SNOW WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN SNOW AT 12Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST 12Z-18Z TO CEILINGS
2-4K FEET AND VISIBILITIES P6SM EXCEPT VERY LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM IN BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED BY 27/00Z WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH 27/12Z. SURFACE
GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST UNTIL 22Z.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260935
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260935
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260440
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD
EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TIMED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE 1.5 PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP ASCENT. THIS REACHES THE THE JAMES VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...I-29 AROUND 03Z...AND HWY 71 IN IA AND MN AROUND 06Z.
THE UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER ERN SD AND ERN NEBRASKA SO THAT THE
POSITIVE PV ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS OVER MOST OF SE SD AND MOST OF NW IA...WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS FROM CANBY DOWN TO SPIRIT LAKE IOWA. WITH
ONLY 1/4 OR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED...THAT WOULD RESULT 3 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.

THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WITH PRESSURE RISES
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS...THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS OR IS ABOUT TO END.
THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE LOFTED SUCH
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW WIDE OPEN
LOCATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
CANBY MN TO SPIRIT LAKE WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE TIME...THIS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. WHILE THERE COULD
BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SUCH THAT THE THREAT
FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IOWA. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND SNOW. HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE STEADY OR FALL MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN NW IA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
TO DIMINISH WINDS. SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...BUT
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DIAGNOSING POTENTIAL EXTENT FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO MAXIMIZE IMPACT OF THE SNOWFALL FROM TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TO START THE EVENING...AND SHIELD OF HIGHER CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND INITIATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY KICK UP A COUPLE OF FLURRIES IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPS IN
CLOUD LAYER REMAIN FAVORABLY COLD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP BELOW ZERO THROUGH NORTHERN COUPLE OF TIERS...AND IF CAN
SUPERIMPOSE THE SNOW COVER...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD
PUSH 10 BELOW OR MORE AROUND BROOKINGS.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND IMPOSED DRY AIR SLIPS EASTWARD...AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLOWLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF EARLY DAY FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEST...BUT WEAKENING OF QG LIFT AND WARMING OF
TEMPS IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD SPELL AND END TO ANY FLURRY
THREAT. HOWEVER...BY LATE DAY...ADVANCING BAROCLINICITY WILL START
TO FEEL IMPACT OF NEXT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. LIFT
FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE...AND WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD KBKX-KMML AREA. OVERALL A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STABILIZE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH WARMING
ALOFT...A FAIRLY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT.

MASSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO NON-DIURNAL TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF WARMING GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT AND SATURATION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING. SUB INVERSION LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEPTH
IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW WITH LIFT EXPECTED ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...
BUT A GREAT DEAL OF LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL AS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AFTER SNOW CHANCE TAPERS OFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUES TO WARMING TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS
SUGGEST GRADIENT FROM MID 30S WHERE GREATER SNOWFALL OCCURS
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S LOWER BRULE AREAS.

SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEGIN TO EVOLVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WAVE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG ZONAL FLOW...DRIVING A SHARP ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. TIMING IS PRETTY SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...WHICH
LEAD TO POTENTIAL LARGE ERRORS IN TEMPS AS SOME RUNS TAKE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...WHILE OTHERS GIVE AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA OR DAY IN THE WARMER AIR BEFORE DRIVING
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
FAVOR SIDING TOWARD THE MEANS...WHICH ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE BLENDED IN HEAVIER WEIGHT TO ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR SATURDAY.

IF ANY PERIOD OF THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO CONTAIN A PRECIPITATION
THREAT...IT WOULD LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AS SHARP MID LEVEL FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND ZONAL JET
ENTRANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL SURVIVE THE MELT ON
FRIDAY...HAVE NOT GONE TOO EXTREME WITH COOLING UNDER RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING. AS STRONGLY AS CONDITIONS COOL...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING EARLY WEEK...WITH TEMPS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
WARMING AT LOW LEVELS. BY TUESDAY...STOUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT MAY FINALLY ABLE TO DISPLACE THE COLD STABLE POOL...AND
TREND TOWARD EVEN WARMER IS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WITH
FALLING SNOW ENDING AS THE STRONGER WINDS COME INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ003.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM





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