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000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 311110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/STRATUS...WITH LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS...FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z
AS 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MIX THROUGH STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 10KTS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...SO COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SHALLOW FOG EVENT...
THOUGH AGAIN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY VFR TONIGHT...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AHEAD
OF WEAK COOL FRONT...PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA DRY AS LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT ALLOWS STRONG CAP
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR/EAST
OF I-29...TO NEAR 90 WHERE MIXING IS MAXIMIZED IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ANDES TO KBKX/KMML LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
HUMID AIR MASS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S TONIGHT...
OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 1ST OF
SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE HUMIDITY AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THINK WE COULD SEE A
FEW ACCAS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A LOW POP TO
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC LOW END RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLAY OUT TO
HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

IN THE NEARER TERM...LEFT TUESDAY DRY AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOCUSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE TO THAT...KEPT SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH OUR LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN COME INTO PLAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO OUR AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO GROW TOWARD THE END
OF THE EXTENDED...MOST NOTICEABLE WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT DAY THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN
WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 310348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 310348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAF SET...
ESPECIALLY FOR KFSD AND KSUX. ONCE AGAIN...CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
FOR KFSD AND KSUX. IN FACT KFSD HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED AN IFR
DECK WHICH ONE CANNOT SEE OF THE IR FOG CURVE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. JUDGING FROM OBSERVATIONS IT IS
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD YET...BUT COULD BE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THEREFORE KEPT THESE CEILINGS AS BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. LIKEWISE AT KSUX...WHO COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THEMSELVES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG NOT TOO
FAR TO THEIR SOUTH. THEY WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. KHON SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THAT LOCATION WITH WELL MIXED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRETTY THICK SMOKE PLUME EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. VISUALLY AT KFSD...AND ON WEBCAMS IN SIOUX CITY...DECIDED TO
GO 6SM IN SMOKE TONIGHT AS THE SLANT VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE THE
BEST. HURON WEBCAMS LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS STRATUS AGAIN AT KFSD AND KSUX.
DESPITE MIXING BETTER TODAY...THE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT ERODE VERY
FAR FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR STORM LAKE IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND SUNRISE AT KFSD
AND KSUX. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. FINALLY...LOW LEVEL
JET IS STOUT TONIGHT...MOST PROMINENT AT KHON WHERE THE SPEED IS
40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AGL. LEFT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS AS SURFACE MIXING SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
ROBUST...WHICH IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON CHOSE NOT TO PUT IN LIFR
AT KFSD AND KSUX LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 302028
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS MARGINALLY MIXED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD MEAN A LITTLE LESS FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST
TWO NIGHTS BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA
SO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A BIT HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODELS IN THE EXTENDED TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY WARM...MUGGY AND
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND HAVE PERIODIC POPS
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WORKS THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DON/T REALLY ADVERTISE MUCH OF A WAVE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND A 25-35 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT A LOT
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COULD GET ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA TO SPROUT A FEW STORMS.

HAVE CONTINUED LOW POP MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SHORTWAVES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TRANSLATING EAST.  HAVE
KEPT MID TO UPPER CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS LIMITED THUS
KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES SOMEWHAT LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301709
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSUX QUICKLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD SO WILL RAMP UP WINDS AS WELL. SOME THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KFSD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAF AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE TO REMAIN MARGINALLY MIXED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 301120
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS FROM THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AGAIN SEEING STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE...THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR
IT TO DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AIR QUALITY FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZY SKIES. IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE STRATUS MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. TO THE WEST...HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SOME MODELS...WITH THE NAM THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THINKING THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS RECENT NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
29 CORRIDOR. THE STRATUS COULD FIRST AFFECT KSUX SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. KFSD IS QUITE A CHALLENGE...IN THAT THEY COULD BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD BUILDING STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 300154
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT WHERE WE HAVE THE FOG ALREADY
MENTIONED. IN FACT THE CURRENT STRATUS IS BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ALREADY AROUND THE STORM LAKE AND CHEROKEE IOWA
AREAS...USHERED IN BY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MESS OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I 29 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST SREF LOW CLOUD PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS THE RAP AND
HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 292105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE WET
GROUND...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUSPECT THAT FOG AND
THIN LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA SO WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY DENSE FOG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH 15Z AND SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S IN
CENTRAL SD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIRLY WINDY IN
CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 80 AROUND STORM LAKE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LESS. GFS SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.  FOR NOW...LEFT POPS FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  HAVE THROWN OUT GFS SOLUTION...AS IT IS WAY
TO WARM ALOFT COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS.  HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 291752
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHICH
SHOULD BE THE TREND THROUGH 20Z. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
IN CENTRAL SD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
IOWA WILL STILL SEE SOME WEAK FLOW AND A DECENT INVERSION
OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX FROM ABOUT 8Z THROUGH 15Z.
KFSD WILL ALSO SEE THE THREAT BUT WILL BE ON THE EDGE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS IS SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF YANKTON SD TO
WINDOM MINNESOTA LINE...WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG
IN LOCALES GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF I
29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS IS SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF YANKTON SD TO
WINDOM MINNESOTA LINE...WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG
IN LOCALES GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF I
29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 291109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS IS SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF YANKTON SD TO
WINDOM MINNESOTA LINE...WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG
IN LOCALES GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF I
29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290847
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE TIED TO AREAS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO USED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO TIME
ITS DEPARTURE...IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY FOG
FORMATION AT THIS POINT...THOUGH STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ABUNDANT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SO KEPT IT IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...TO NEAR 90 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST...AND MODELS
AGAIN HINTING AT FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...GENERALLY LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MIX OUT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH DAY...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING WEST OF I29 WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. FURTHER
EAST...SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND WEAKER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST AND
SQUASHES THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK LIFT
AND POOR UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL LEAVE
SOME VERY LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK WAVES LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST OF
THE VERY SPOTTY POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK
HOWEVER...MODELS BEGIN CONVENING ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE
SOME LOW END POPS FRIDAY...RAMPING UP INTO CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF TONIGHT IMPACTING THE KSUX TAF SITE...WHO MAY WAVER
BETWEEN LOWER END MVFR AND UPPER END IFR. NAM HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS MAY ERODE CLOSE TO
09Z AT KSUX...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. IF IT DOES ERODE...THEN
FOG IS A CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AT KFSD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF TONIGHT IMPACTING THE KSUX TAF SITE...WHO MAY WAVER
BETWEEN LOWER END MVFR AND UPPER END IFR. NAM HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS MAY ERODE CLOSE TO
09Z AT KSUX...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. IF IT DOES ERODE...THEN
FOG IS A CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AT KFSD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF TONIGHT IMPACTING THE KSUX TAF SITE...WHO MAY WAVER
BETWEEN LOWER END MVFR AND UPPER END IFR. NAM HUMIDITY TIME
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS MAY ERODE CLOSE TO
09Z AT KSUX...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. IF IT DOES ERODE...THEN
FOG IS A CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AT KFSD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290243
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290243
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 290243
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 290243
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SO FAR...NO CHANGES TO OUR FOG FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH IN OUR
NORTHWEST IOWA ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THEREFORE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM 925MB RH FIELD...SLOWED
DOWN THE EXIT OR EVAPORATION OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. IN FACT DEEP IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREA AROUND STORM LAKE
AND CHEROKEE...THE STRATUS MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT.
THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION MARK WHAT THIS STRATUS WILL DO TO THE
POTENTIAL FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF THE STRATUS HANGS ON IN
NORTHWEST IA...THAT COULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BUT OVERALL THE
CURRENT FOG FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 282335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE KSUX TAF
SITE AS CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EVEN AT KFSD...MVFR COULD SNEAK BACK IN FOR A
WHILE WITH A CLOUD DECK NOT TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. A BIGGER
ISSUE RESIDES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WET GROUND AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KFSD AND KSUX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH
IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO
THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE AREA TO THE EAST...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE LIGHT. A WIDE SWATH OF MVFR AND IFR
STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS MAY LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SW MINNESOTA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I20
CORRIDOR AND EAST. ADDED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z IN KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT KHON MAY REMAIN IN THE CLEAR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE AREA TO THE EAST...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE LIGHT. A WIDE SWATH OF MVFR AND IFR
STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS MAY LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SW MINNESOTA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I20
CORRIDOR AND EAST. ADDED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z IN KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT KHON MAY REMAIN IN THE CLEAR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 282059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE AREA TO THE EAST...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE LIGHT. A WIDE SWATH OF MVFR AND IFR
STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS MAY LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SW MINNESOTA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I20
CORRIDOR AND EAST. ADDED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z IN KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT KHON MAY REMAIN IN THE CLEAR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 282059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING BEHIND A FAIRLY
HUMID AND COOL AIR MASS. AFTER THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WILL BE A BIT LATER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND A VERY WET GROUND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE AT
SEEING ONE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER SHAKING OFF SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG SUSPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL END UP AS A VERY NICE DAY. NOT MUCH WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER.
 ADDED MENTION OF FOG AND BEGAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE SKY UP WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

APPEARS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE AND WARM THE
SURFACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...BUT IF STRATUS IS AS
PERSISTENT AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW...MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  BY MID TO LAT PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIES TO TRANSLATE EAST...WITH A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING IS
REALLY ILL DEFINED...SO BASICALLY REMOVED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
TIMING OF A FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE AREA TO THE EAST...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE LIGHT. A WIDE SWATH OF MVFR AND IFR
STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS MAY LINGER
ACROSS NORTHWEST IA AND SW MINNESOTA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I20
CORRIDOR AND EAST. ADDED FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z IN KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT KHON MAY REMAIN IN THE CLEAR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




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