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000
FXUS63 KFSD 221140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 221140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 220829
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220829
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SITUATING ITSELF PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR MO RIVER
COUNTY ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STARVED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY CLOSING THE GULF.
KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE JUST SHOWER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY NOTED.
OVERALL THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE TO START THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...BUT 70 TO 75
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE TRUE GULF MOISTURE IS
STILL SHUTOFF AS THE BIG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES ARE
POINTING IN A STRAIGHT EAST TO WEST DIRECTION IN THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RIDING UP MORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UP
AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO ALL TOLD RAINFALL CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY SKITTISH WITH LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS CERTAINLY NOT
WARRANTED YET AT THIS TIME. LOWS ARE RATHER TRICKY BECAUSE DESPITE
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH WERE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
LOOKED TOO COOL...AND PREFERRED SOME OF THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED
READINGS WHICH GIVE LOWS AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ONCE ANY POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
AND LITTLE FORCING PROMOTES LITTLE ACTIVITY.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT MAINLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN HIGH TEMPERATURES....AND FOR
NOW HAVE SIDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CANADIAN/ECMWF BLEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM GREAT.  AT THIS POINT...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DRY
AIR PUNCH WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...REDUCED POP
MENTION ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CREATING MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 220326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER CLOUD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
MID-DAY...WITH MID-LVL CLOUDS INCREASING BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212310
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TURN VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. WATCH FOR INCREASING UPR AND MID-LVL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECOUPLING AND A
RELAXING GRADIENT. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. IN
LIGHT OF THAT...STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...AND PICK UP IN OUR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NUDGING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A
GOOD BIT OF THE DAY...WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MORE QUICKLY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE WHICH
WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY STREAMING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO 50S ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUBDUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE ALL DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...SO IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY MAY BE.
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS EMERGING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AGAIN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CAPE LOOK PRETTY WEAK...SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WOBBLES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE WAVE OUT FASTER THAN THE
GEM...WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE WAVE AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
EXITING WAVE...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS MODESTLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LEFT IN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH THE RETURN OF A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211711
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEARING 25KT AT TIMES EAST OF KHON-KMHE-KSUX LINE IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT KFSD TAF LOCATION COULD ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-25KT GUSTS 16Z-22Z TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY NICE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE TIGHTER
GRADIENT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PREVALENT MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH SCATTERED CU EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING...WILL FAVOR THE WARMER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DECREASING WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
HEDGED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BRING DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT LOW AND MID LEVELS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COOL BAND AT H8 AHEAD OF WEEKEND PLAINS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY TAME FOR A WHILE...BUT THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT
DEVELOPING AT MID LEVELS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD IN AS MAIN WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
SOME THUNDER...AND FAVOR THE GFS AND EC OVER THE NAM ON THIS WITH
THE NAM LOOKING TOO SLOW ON DEVELOPING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHOWER CHANCE LATE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 60S SOUTHWEST UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

ONE THING LOOKS CLEAR CUT FROM ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...ACTUALLY CALL
IT CLOUDY CUT...AND THAT IS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE SUN THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR LACK THEREOF. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH A LOT OF 60S TO LOW 70S HIGHS AND 50S LOWS.

FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAVES FROM A
DECAYING MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE PICTURE. AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD DRY
SOME...SUNSHINE SHOULD PARTIALLY RETURN...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARM SOME...LIKE INTO THE 70S. THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN...BUT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
LOON IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...SO THERE WILL BE NO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210307
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
MORNING...TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202311
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
611 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TURN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A MORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201816
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
116 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL END 15Z-21Z.
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT THROUGH 21Z LOCAL CEILINGS 2-3K AND
VISIBILITIES 5SM IN LIGHT RAIN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS FAIRLY WEAK RAIN SYSTEM IS WELL BEHAVED...OR PERHAPS ONE SHOULD
SAY THAT APPLIES TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...WITH THE WILD CARD AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE BEING THE EFFECT OF DRIER AIR BELOW MID LEVELS
AFFECTING WHEN AND WHERE RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE FSD AREA IS
RIGHT IN THE POP GRADIENT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WILL FALL IF IT DOES
RAIN HERE. THE PEAK OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM ITSELF OVER OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
13-14Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...APPEARING TO HOLD STEADY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR A BIT
LONGER. IN ANY EVENT BY NOON THE DECREASE WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND
THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES
THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AND
THUS DO NOT SEE A STUBBORN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NATURALLY ENOUGH WILL BE WARMEST IN THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LOWS 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER
60S NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THE CLOUD THINNING AND DECREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING THIS EVENING AS IT ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING DRYING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO COOL BUT NOT FROSTY LEVELS.

WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NORTHERLY...WITH A TREND TO STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CU IN OUR EAST THURSDAY IN AREA OF SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE STILL DOMINANT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA IS LACKING
AND MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING DOWN EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS LEAD WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STILL
CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TIMING A BIT.

UNFORTUNATELY STILL VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS IN FINER DETAILS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT EVOLVES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIP TIMING AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH GULF BEGINNING TO OPEN UP BY LATE
SATURDAY...SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH LATEST 20/00Z ECMWF TRENDING A BIT
DRIER IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOLDS UP
THE MOISTURE RETURN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUPPORT OF THIS
TREND IN FUTURE RUNS.

GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WORK TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS
AT THIS RANGE...SO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS FROM ANY ONE
PERIOD. WARMING TREND FROM CURRENT COOL SPELL ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S-LOWER 70S STILL THE BEST BET
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTLIER GFS DOES TRY TO SPREAD WARMER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT BEST AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200353
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 200353
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LIGHT RAIN STILL TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS
HITTING A BRICK WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVES INTO SD.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE KHON TAF SITE DRY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KFSD...WITH
BOTH SITES LIKELY REMAINING VFR. KSUX IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC.
THE NAM REALLY DROPS THE CEILINGS AT KSUX BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z
WEDNESDAY TO WHAT WOULD BE LOWER END MVFR TO UPPER END IFR. SO FAR
NOT SEEING IT...WITH THOSE TYPES OF CEILINGS BOTTLED UP IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND LIKELY TO NOT MOVE THIS FAR NORTH. SO THE
KSUX FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF THE RAP13 WHICH KEEPS VFR FOR KSUX
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSUX WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
GOING VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL USHER IN GOOD CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LEFT THE MENTION OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THE KHON TAF SITE WHO IS DEEPER IN THE DRIER
AIR...AND ALSO KEPT THEM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND RAP13 SHOW A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO MOVE INTO THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS PROGGED THAT KFSD WILL HAVE DRIER AIR
ENTRAIN IN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT KSUX IS SUGGESTED TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL USHER IN GOOD CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LEFT THE MENTION OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THE KHON TAF SITE WHO IS DEEPER IN THE DRIER
AIR...AND ALSO KEPT THEM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND RAP13 SHOW A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO MOVE INTO THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS PROGGED THAT KFSD WILL HAVE DRIER AIR
ENTRAIN IN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT KSUX IS SUGGESTED TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192032
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192032
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192032
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OVERALL FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS BUT HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND DID
INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND INTERSTATE 90. BETTER MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
AREA MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES SO LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS FORCING AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
JUST A FEW SMALLER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MOST
DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS MAY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE CLEARING
SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW CU ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE MILDER...IN THE MID
40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO THINKING
MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW/SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONSENSUS PUTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES LATER ON MONDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS DO APPEAR TO BE ON THE UPSWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND RESURGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
FREEZE AND FROST OUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CLEARING THROUGH
DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP OUT THE FREEZE AND FROST AS FORECAST. THE
FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF HON/MHE...AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL STAY ONLY
FOR BON HOMME COUNTY/SPRINGFIELD.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DRIED OUT STEADILY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
DRIER AIR SQUEEZES THEM OUT FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE DAY WITH STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD
GET TO ABOUT FSD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE RAIN THREAT EXCEPT FOR THE
NAM WHICH OVERDOES IT...MORE ON AMOUNTS THAN COVERAGE. STILL...IT
LOOKS WORTH GOING FOR UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE A SHARP NORTH TO
SOUTH POP GRADIENT IN THE AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION LACKS SUPPORT TO
MAKE IT TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND TEMPERATURES UPSTAIRS
ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT MIXED SNOW WHERE A LITTLE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BEST SYSTEM
DYNAMICS HEADED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AND ESPECIALLY BY 18Z...AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BECOMES
DOMINANT IN THE MID LEVELS. SHOULD SEE CLEARING WORK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CUMULUS POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S...
WITH READINGS CLIMBING CLOSER TO 60 IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WARMER
AIR FINALLY RETURNS BY THURSDAY...AND WHILE STILL BELOW NORMAL...
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S/NEAR 70.

CLOUD INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING INTO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK LEAD WAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS POINT...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PRETTY
LIMITED...BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT...SO WORTH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATER IN THE DAY AS FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE OPEN TO THE GULF AND ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO OUR
AREA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS FIRST WAVE
THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE TO
STICK WITH A GENERAL ALL DAY PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO KICK OUT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
BECOMING AVAILABLE...WILL STICK WITH HIGHER END PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS PERIOD. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AROUND INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STILL SEEING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINING FARTHER
NORTH/WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE THAN ECMWF. QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE WIDE RANGE IN THESE
SOLUTIONS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED
ABOVE...WILL STICK WITH BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND RESURGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
FREEZE AND FROST OUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CLEARING THROUGH
DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP OUT THE FREEZE AND FROST AS FORECAST. THE
FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF HON/MHE...AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL STAY ONLY
FOR BON HOMME COUNTY/SPRINGFIELD.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DRIED OUT STEADILY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
DRIER AIR SQUEEZES THEM OUT FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE DAY WITH STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD
GET TO ABOUT FSD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE RAIN THREAT EXCEPT FOR THE
NAM WHICH OVERDOES IT...MORE ON AMOUNTS THAN COVERAGE. STILL...IT
LOOKS WORTH GOING FOR UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE A SHARP NORTH TO
SOUTH POP GRADIENT IN THE AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION LACKS SUPPORT TO
MAKE IT TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND TEMPERATURES UPSTAIRS
ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT MIXED SNOW WHERE A LITTLE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BEST SYSTEM
DYNAMICS HEADED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AND ESPECIALLY BY 18Z...AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BECOMES
DOMINANT IN THE MID LEVELS. SHOULD SEE CLEARING WORK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CUMULUS POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S...
WITH READINGS CLIMBING CLOSER TO 60 IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WARMER
AIR FINALLY RETURNS BY THURSDAY...AND WHILE STILL BELOW NORMAL...
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S/NEAR 70.

CLOUD INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING INTO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK LEAD WAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS POINT...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PRETTY
LIMITED...BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT...SO WORTH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATER IN THE DAY AS FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE OPEN TO THE GULF AND ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO OUR
AREA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS FIRST WAVE
THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE TO
STICK WITH A GENERAL ALL DAY PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO KICK OUT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
BECOMING AVAILABLE...WILL STICK WITH HIGHER END PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS PERIOD. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AROUND INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STILL SEEING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINING FARTHER
NORTH/WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE THAN ECMWF. QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE WIDE RANGE IN THESE
SOLUTIONS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED
ABOVE...WILL STICK WITH BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND RESURGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
FREEZE AND FROST OUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CLEARING THROUGH
DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP OUT THE FREEZE AND FROST AS FORECAST. THE
FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF HON/MHE...AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL STAY ONLY
FOR BON HOMME COUNTY/SPRINGFIELD.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DRIED OUT STEADILY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
DRIER AIR SQUEEZES THEM OUT FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE DAY WITH STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD
GET TO ABOUT FSD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE RAIN THREAT EXCEPT FOR THE
NAM WHICH OVERDOES IT...MORE ON AMOUNTS THAN COVERAGE. STILL...IT
LOOKS WORTH GOING FOR UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE A SHARP NORTH TO
SOUTH POP GRADIENT IN THE AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION LACKS SUPPORT TO
MAKE IT TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND TEMPERATURES UPSTAIRS
ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT MIXED SNOW WHERE A LITTLE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BEST SYSTEM
DYNAMICS HEADED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AND ESPECIALLY BY 18Z...AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BECOMES
DOMINANT IN THE MID LEVELS. SHOULD SEE CLEARING WORK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CUMULUS POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S...
WITH READINGS CLIMBING CLOSER TO 60 IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WARMER
AIR FINALLY RETURNS BY THURSDAY...AND WHILE STILL BELOW NORMAL...
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S/NEAR 70.

CLOUD INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING INTO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK LEAD WAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS POINT...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PRETTY
LIMITED...BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT...SO WORTH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATER IN THE DAY AS FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE OPEN TO THE GULF AND ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO OUR
AREA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS FIRST WAVE
THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE TO
STICK WITH A GENERAL ALL DAY PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO KICK OUT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
BECOMING AVAILABLE...WILL STICK WITH HIGHER END PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS PERIOD. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AROUND INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STILL SEEING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINING FARTHER
NORTH/WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE THAN ECMWF. QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE WIDE RANGE IN THESE
SOLUTIONS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED
ABOVE...WILL STICK WITH BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 191726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND RESURGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
FREEZE AND FROST OUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY CLEARING THROUGH
DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP OUT THE FREEZE AND FROST AS FORECAST. THE
FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF HON/MHE...AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL STAY ONLY
FOR BON HOMME COUNTY/SPRINGFIELD.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DRIED OUT STEADILY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
DRIER AIR SQUEEZES THEM OUT FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE DAY WITH STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD
GET TO ABOUT FSD AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT ON THE RAIN THREAT EXCEPT FOR THE
NAM WHICH OVERDOES IT...MORE ON AMOUNTS THAN COVERAGE. STILL...IT
LOOKS WORTH GOING FOR UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE A SHARP NORTH TO
SOUTH POP GRADIENT IN THE AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION LACKS SUPPORT TO
MAKE IT TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND TEMPERATURES UPSTAIRS
ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT MIXED SNOW WHERE A LITTLE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BEST SYSTEM
DYNAMICS HEADED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AND ESPECIALLY BY 18Z...AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BECOMES
DOMINANT IN THE MID LEVELS. SHOULD SEE CLEARING WORK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CUMULUS POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S...
WITH READINGS CLIMBING CLOSER TO 60 IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WARMER
AIR FINALLY RETURNS BY THURSDAY...AND WHILE STILL BELOW NORMAL...
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S/NEAR 70.

CLOUD INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING INTO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK LEAD WAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...
AND WHILE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS POINT...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PRETTY
LIMITED...BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT...SO WORTH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATER IN THE DAY AS FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE OPEN TO THE GULF AND ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO OUR
AREA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS FIRST WAVE
THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE TO
STICK WITH A GENERAL ALL DAY PRECIP CHANCE FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO KICK OUT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
BECOMING AVAILABLE...WILL STICK WITH HIGHER END PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS PERIOD. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCE AROUND INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STILL SEEING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINING FARTHER
NORTH/WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE THAN ECMWF. QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE WIDE RANGE IN THESE
SOLUTIONS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED
ABOVE...WILL STICK WITH BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN MANY PLACES BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





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