Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KFSD 012322
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOST OF THE DAY. WITH LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE 200 TO 400 J/KG BASED
ABOVE 800 MB AS THIS WAVE MOVES IN. SO AM EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY
INCLUDING SIOUX CITY. WITH THE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA...DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET AS FAR EAST AS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SPENCER IOWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT
FOG TOMORROW AROUND SIOUX CITY AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AM A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE FOG GIVEN LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY IN THE MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.  AROUND CHAMBERLAIN...A FEW LOCALES COULD REACH 90
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE STANDARD NOCTURNAL WEAK SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT AGAIN
REMAIN PRETTY ISOLATED. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE. LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY A BIT
HOT IN THE WESTERN CWA...FROM ABOUT 90 TO 95 WHILE THE EASTERN CWA
WILL BE ABOUT 80 TO 85.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A MINOR THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
AGAIN...NOTHING SEVERE. SIMILAR LOWS AND HIGHS TO SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BATTLE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE
MODELS TRY TO RESOLVE THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
PRETTY DECENT WAVE DURING THIS TIME. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL WILL
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. THE ECMWF VALUES ARE COOLER
THAN THE GFS VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH MEN TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN MEX TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE ALREADY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD STATISTICAL SIGNAL TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KSUX
TAF SITE...WHERE IFR TO MVFR FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE. IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN IFR...IT WILL LIKELY
BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL SD TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES
OF IT IMPACTING THE KHON TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EVEN LOWER AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT
SAID...THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY CREATE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 012322
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOST OF THE DAY. WITH LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE 200 TO 400 J/KG BASED
ABOVE 800 MB AS THIS WAVE MOVES IN. SO AM EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY
INCLUDING SIOUX CITY. WITH THE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA...DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET AS FAR EAST AS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SPENCER IOWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT
FOG TOMORROW AROUND SIOUX CITY AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AM A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE FOG GIVEN LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY IN THE MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.  AROUND CHAMBERLAIN...A FEW LOCALES COULD REACH 90
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE STANDARD NOCTURNAL WEAK SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT AGAIN
REMAIN PRETTY ISOLATED. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE. LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY A BIT
HOT IN THE WESTERN CWA...FROM ABOUT 90 TO 95 WHILE THE EASTERN CWA
WILL BE ABOUT 80 TO 85.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A MINOR THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
AGAIN...NOTHING SEVERE. SIMILAR LOWS AND HIGHS TO SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BATTLE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE
MODELS TRY TO RESOLVE THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
PRETTY DECENT WAVE DURING THIS TIME. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL WILL
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. THE ECMWF VALUES ARE COOLER
THAN THE GFS VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH MEN TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN MEX TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE ALREADY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD STATISTICAL SIGNAL TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KSUX
TAF SITE...WHERE IFR TO MVFR FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE. IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN IFR...IT WILL LIKELY
BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL SD TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES
OF IT IMPACTING THE KHON TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EVEN LOWER AT KSUX AND KFSD. THAT
SAID...THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY CREATE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 012018
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOST OF THE DAY. WITH LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE 200 TO 400 J/KG BASED
ABOVE 800 MB AS THIS WAVE MOVES IN. SO AM EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY
INCLUDING SIOUX CITY. WITH THE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA...DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET AS FAR EAST AS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SPENCER IOWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT
FOG TOMORROW AROUND SIOUX CITY AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AM A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE FOG GIVEN LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY IN THE MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.  AROUND CHAMBERLAIN...A FEW LOCALES COULD REACH 90
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE STANDARD NOCTURNAL WEAK SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT AGAIN
REMAIN PRETTY ISOLATED. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE. LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY A BIT
HOT IN THE WESTERN CWA...FROM ABOUT 90 TO 95 WHILE THE EASTERN CWA
WILL BE ABOUT 80 TO 85.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A MINOR THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
AGAIN...NOTHING SEVERE. SIMILAR LOWS AND HIGHS TO SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BATTLE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE
MODELS TRY TO RESOLVE THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
PRETTY DECENT WAVE DURING THIS TIME. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL WILL
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. THE ECMWF VALUES ARE COOLER
THAN THE GFS VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH MEN TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN MEX TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE ALREADY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD STATISTICAL SIGNAL TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR KHON AND KFSD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. IN SIOUX CITY...WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FOG TO FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AS THE MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD
KFSD AND KSUX AFTER SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITY DID
NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER







000
FXUS63 KFSD 011810
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 IN MN
AND IA. THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL SD
WILL MOVE INTO IA AND MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD I35 BY
EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE IT IS A LITTLE DRIER ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ACCAS
ON SATELLITE AS LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS DID LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR KHON AND KFSD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. IN SIOUX CITY...WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FOG TO FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AS THE MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD
KFSD AND KSUX AFTER SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITY DID
NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER







000
FXUS63 KFSD 011810
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 IN MN
AND IA. THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL SD
WILL MOVE INTO IA AND MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD I35 BY
EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE IT IS A LITTLE DRIER ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ACCAS
ON SATELLITE AS LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS DID LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR KHON AND KFSD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. IN SIOUX CITY...WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FOG TO FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AS THE MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD
KFSD AND KSUX AFTER SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITY DID
NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER






000
FXUS63 KFSD 011604
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 IN MN
AND IA. THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL SD
WILL MOVE INTO IA AND MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD I35 BY
EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE IT IS A LITTLE DRIER ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ACCAS
ON SATELLITE AS LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS DID LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...







000
FXUS63 KFSD 011604
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 IN MN
AND IA. THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL SD
WILL MOVE INTO IA AND MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD I35 BY
EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE IT IS A LITTLE DRIER ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ACCAS
ON SATELLITE AS LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS DID LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 011113
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 011113
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KFSD 010834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA SHOW SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT
KFSD AND KSUX. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SITES SINCE
THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 010834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA SHOW SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT
KFSD AND KSUX. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SITES SINCE
THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 010448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA SHOW SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT
KFSD AND KSUX. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SITES SINCE
THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 010448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA SHOW SMALL
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT
KFSD AND KSUX. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SITES SINCE
THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. IN ADDITION THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 312332
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
632 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOT THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I 90. THE ACTIVITY IS TOO ISOLATED TO PUT IN THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THE THREAT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KFSD 312332
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
632 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOT THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I 90. THE ACTIVITY IS TOO ISOLATED TO PUT IN THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THE THREAT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 311959
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 311959
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
259 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU...AND SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS WITH A WEAK WAVE
SINKING SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT EXPECTED. SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRETTY
STRONG...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY...THINKING
WE SEE A MIX OF CU AND ACCAS MAKING IT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CARRY SOME LOW POPS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER TODAY...SO WILL HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP A BIT
WARMER...ABOUT 79 TO 82 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 AND THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
NICE WEEKEND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS AT 15 TO 20 MPH OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...CAP VALUES OF ABOUT 3000
J/KG BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ON TUESDAY SO THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ON TUESDAY. SUSPECT THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT HUMID WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 311732
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 311732
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 311152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
652 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-29 THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION IN THE HURON AND SIOUX FALLS TAFS
EARLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KFSD 311152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
652 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-29 THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION IN THE HURON AND SIOUX FALLS TAFS
EARLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 310828
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 310828
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING
IS FIRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN EXPAND INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF
LATE...MOISTURE...LIFT AND SUPPORT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NO AREA SHOULD EXPECT A TOTAL WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH THE SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID
80S.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EVENING AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EAST
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FORCING IS WEAK SO WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER TODAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMING AND FINALLY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LOW AND HIT AND MISS IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...SO
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND WARMING MID LEVELS KEPT
IT DRY. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 310357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD














000
FXUS63 KFSD 310357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD














000
FXUS63 KFSD 310357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD













000
FXUS63 KFSD 310357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD













000
FXUS63 KFSD 302320
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD











000
FXUS63 KFSD 302320
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD










000
FXUS63 KFSD 302019
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700
MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL
IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT
ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER
SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME
VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD
BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 301753
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW LOCKED INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MINOR THETA E ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NOSES TOWARDS OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE TO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE EAST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING
UP BY AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHT BOOST IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT
COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FOLLOWING RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS...DID NUDGE TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE VERY LOW END POPS IN PLACE - ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...AND MAY BE MORE AKIN TO SPRINKLES THAN SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOISY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND DOES POSE THE
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A FEW HARD TO RESOLVE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WAVE SLIDING DOWN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS GAINED QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP VERIFIES LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
WAVE...AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES SET TO CROSS
RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN TERMS OF THETA E ADVECTION SEEM TO FOCUS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD...AND WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLE
TO FIND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAR FROM A
WASHOUT...AND MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE INDICATED...MORE FORMIDABLE IN THE NAM
AND SREF THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. COULD EASILY ARGUE THAT WITH THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM ANY EARLIER CONVECTION
DURING THIS DIURNAL CYCLE MAY FOCUS A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT
START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...AND EXPECT
A SOLUTION TOWARD MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING...AND WILL NOT ADD
IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NUDGING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
WITH FALLING PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST. WARMEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
POSITION WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY OF HAVING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SATURDAY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND.

THE PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FINALLY IMPROVE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE LED INTO BY A PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINT...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC
BOUNDARY. COULD EVEN START TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD








000
FXUS63 KFSD 301753
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW LOCKED INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MINOR THETA E ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NOSES TOWARDS OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE TO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE EAST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING
UP BY AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHT BOOST IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT
COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FOLLOWING RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS...DID NUDGE TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE VERY LOW END POPS IN PLACE - ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...AND MAY BE MORE AKIN TO SPRINKLES THAN SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOISY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND DOES POSE THE
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A FEW HARD TO RESOLVE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WAVE SLIDING DOWN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS GAINED QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP VERIFIES LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
WAVE...AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES SET TO CROSS
RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN TERMS OF THETA E ADVECTION SEEM TO FOCUS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD...AND WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLE
TO FIND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAR FROM A
WASHOUT...AND MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE INDICATED...MORE FORMIDABLE IN THE NAM
AND SREF THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. COULD EASILY ARGUE THAT WITH THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM ANY EARLIER CONVECTION
DURING THIS DIURNAL CYCLE MAY FOCUS A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT
START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...AND EXPECT
A SOLUTION TOWARD MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING...AND WILL NOT ADD
IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NUDGING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
WITH FALLING PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST. WARMEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
POSITION WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY OF HAVING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SATURDAY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND.

THE PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FINALLY IMPROVE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE LED INTO BY A PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINT...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC
BOUNDARY. COULD EVEN START TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD







000
FXUS63 KFSD 301127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW LOCKED INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MINOR THETA E ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NOSES TOWARDS OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE TO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE EAST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING
UP BY AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHT BOOST IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT
COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FOLLOWING RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS...DID NUDGE TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE VERY LOW END POPS IN PLACE - ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...AND MAY BE MORE AKIN TO SPRINKLES THAN SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOISY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND DOES POSE THE
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A FEW HARD TO RESOLVE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WAVE SLIDING DOWN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS GAINED QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP VERIFIES LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
WAVE...AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES SET TO CROSS
RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN TERMS OF THETA E ADVECTION SEEM TO FOCUS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD...AND WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLE
TO FIND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAR FROM A
WASHOUT...AND MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE INDICATED...MORE FORMIDABLE IN THE NAM
AND SREF THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. COULD EASILY ARGUE THAT WITH THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM ANY EARLIER CONVECTION
DURING THIS DIURNAL CYCLE MAY FOCUS A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT
START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...AND EXPECT
A SOLUTION TOWARD MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING...AND WILL NOT ADD
IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NUDGING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
WITH FALLING PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST. WARMEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
POSITION WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY OF HAVING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SATURDAY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND.

THE PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FINALLY IMPROVE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE LED INTO BY A PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINT...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC
BOUNDARY. COULD EVEN START TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY
SHALLOW FOG AND WIDELY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN LOW LYING AREAS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 1230 OR 13Z...AND IS MOST NOTED IN THE
KHON AND KSUX AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 301127
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW LOCKED INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MINOR THETA E ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NOSES TOWARDS OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE TO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE EAST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING
UP BY AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHT BOOST IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT
COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FOLLOWING RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS...DID NUDGE TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE VERY LOW END POPS IN PLACE - ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...AND MAY BE MORE AKIN TO SPRINKLES THAN SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOISY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND DOES POSE THE
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A FEW HARD TO RESOLVE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WAVE SLIDING DOWN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS GAINED QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP VERIFIES LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
WAVE...AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES SET TO CROSS
RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN TERMS OF THETA E ADVECTION SEEM TO FOCUS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD...AND WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLE
TO FIND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAR FROM A
WASHOUT...AND MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE INDICATED...MORE FORMIDABLE IN THE NAM
AND SREF THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. COULD EASILY ARGUE THAT WITH THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM ANY EARLIER CONVECTION
DURING THIS DIURNAL CYCLE MAY FOCUS A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT
START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...AND EXPECT
A SOLUTION TOWARD MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING...AND WILL NOT ADD
IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NUDGING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
WITH FALLING PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST. WARMEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
POSITION WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY OF HAVING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SATURDAY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND.

THE PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FINALLY IMPROVE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE LED INTO BY A PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINT...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC
BOUNDARY. COULD EVEN START TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY
SHALLOW FOG AND WIDELY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN LOW LYING AREAS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 1230 OR 13Z...AND IS MOST NOTED IN THE
KHON AND KSUX AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...









000
FXUS63 KFSD 300913
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW LOCKED INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MINOR THETA E ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NOSES TOWARDS OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE TO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE EAST...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS POPPING
UP BY AFTERNOON. WITH A SLIGHT BOOST IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
DECENT MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT
COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FOLLOWING RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS...DID NUDGE TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD AND CLIPS THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE VERY LOW END POPS IN PLACE - ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...AND MAY BE MORE AKIN TO SPRINKLES THAN SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOISY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND DOES POSE THE
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING A FEW HARD TO RESOLVE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WAVE SLIDING DOWN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS HAS GAINED QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. WATER VAPOR LOOP VERIFIES LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
WAVE...AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSES SET TO CROSS
RIDGE AND DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN TERMS OF THETA E ADVECTION SEEM TO FOCUS
THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
AS SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD...AND WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLE
TO FIND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAR FROM A
WASHOUT...AND MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE INDICATED...MORE FORMIDABLE IN THE NAM
AND SREF THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. COULD EASILY ARGUE THAT WITH THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM ANY EARLIER CONVECTION
DURING THIS DIURNAL CYCLE MAY FOCUS A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT
START TO SEE WARMING ALOFT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...AND EXPECT
A SOLUTION TOWARD MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING...AND WILL NOT ADD
IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS PROBABLY NUDGING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
WITH FALLING PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST. WARMEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
POSITION WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY DAY OF HAVING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SATURDAY NOT
TOO FAR BEHIND.

THE PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FINALLY IMPROVE AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. SHOULD BE LED INTO BY A PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINT...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SOUTH OF INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC
BOUNDARY. COULD EVEN START TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 31/06Z. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities