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000
FXUS63 KFSD 180851
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.

FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY STRONG. THEY WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JH









000
FXUS63 KFSD 180448
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1148 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME SPRINKLES THIS EVENING UNDER THE MID CLOUD
DECK AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MITCHELL AND WINNER BOTH REPORTED TRACE AMOUNTS
SO THERE IS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. INSTABILITY PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT BUT WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT FORCING SUSPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE WARMER
GROUND AND THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EXPECTED NOT PLANNING ON ANY
SLIPPERY ROADS OR WALKWAYS. BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. DID LOWER LOWS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST
CWA...INTO THE MID 20S WHILE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH TO NEAR 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MOST SIGHTS BOTTOMING OUT BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN CLIMBING
AFTER THAT.

BY FRIDAY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MN
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TOWARDS A MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALBEIT WINDY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...NOT PLANNING ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME AS EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED WINDS...LOWERED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED
HIGHS...AFTERNOON RH VALUES STILL CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT...SO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF SD. WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY DRY. SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH...AND ONLY VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVERHEAD...NOT THINKING WE SEE TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATURDAY WILL THUS GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AROUND. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTERACTING WITH IT. THIS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THIS RAIN MAKES IT. BUT DID GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THIS AREA
MAY END UP HAVING MORE OF A WET SUNDAY THAN DRY ONE...SO SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CONCERNS...BUT 60S AND
70S SEEM LIKELY. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT IF IT ENDS
UP SUNNIER ON ONE OF THE DAYS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WE BEGIN TO GET A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST
COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THETAE ADVECTION
INCREASES...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WHETHER WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT...MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
ON TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS TREND...BACKED OFF A
BIT MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. AS FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN
GET THIS FAR NORTH. SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WE COULD
STAY DRY...OR GET SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY STRONG. THEY WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 180159
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
859 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME SPRINKLES THIS EVENING UNDER THE MID CLOUD
DECK AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MITCHELL AND WINNER BOTH REPORTED TRACE AMOUNTS
SO THERE IS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. INSTABILITY PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT BUT WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT FORCING SUSPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE WARMER
GROUND AND THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EXPECTED NOT PLANNING ON ANY
SLIPPERY ROADS OR WALKWAYS. BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. DID LOWER LOWS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST
CWA...INTO THE MID 20S WHILE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH TO NEAR 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MOST SIGHTS BOTTOMING OUT BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN CLIMBING
AFTER THAT.

BY FRIDAY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MN
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TOWARDS A MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALBEIT WINDY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...NOT PLANNING ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME AS EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED WINDS...LOWERED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED
HIGHS...AFTERNOON RH VALUES STILL CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT...SO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF SD. WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY DRY. SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH...AND ONLY VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVERHEAD...NOT THINKING WE SEE TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATURDAY WILL THUS GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AROUND. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTERACTING WITH IT. THIS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THIS RAIN MAKES IT. BUT DID GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THIS AREA
MAY END UP HAVING MORE OF A WET SUNDAY THAN DRY ONE...SO SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CONCERNS...BUT 60S AND
70S SEEM LIKELY. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT IF IT ENDS
UP SUNNIER ON ONE OF THE DAYS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WE BEGIN TO GET A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST
COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THETAE ADVECTION
INCREASES...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WHETHER WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT...MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
ON TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS TREND...BACKED OFF A
BIT MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. AS FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN
GET THIS FAR NORTH. SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WE COULD
STAY DRY...OR GET SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER THEY WILL STAY IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. A BIT MORE CONCERNING IS WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY. THEY
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30
TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 172334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. INSTABILITY PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT BUT WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT FORCING SUSPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE WARMER
GROUND AND THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EXPECTED NOT PLANNING ON ANY
SLIPPERY ROADS OR WALKWAYS. BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. DID LOWER LOWS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST
CWA...INTO THE MID 20S WHILE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH TO NEAR 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MOST SIGHTS BOTTOMING OUT BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN CLIMBING
AFTER THAT.

BY FRIDAY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MN
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TOWARDS A MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALBEIT WINDY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...NOT PLANNING ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME AS EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED WINDS...LOWERED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED
HIGHS...AFTERNOON RH VALUES STILL CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT...SO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF SD. WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY DRY. SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH...AND ONLY VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVERHEAD...NOT THINKING WE SEE TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATURDAY WILL THUS GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AROUND. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTERACTING WITH IT. THIS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THIS RAIN MAKES IT. BUT DID GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THIS AREA
MAY END UP HAVING MORE OF A WET SUNDAY THAN DRY ONE...SO SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CONCERNS...BUT 60S AND
70S SEEM LIKELY. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT IF IT ENDS
UP SUNNIER ON ONE OF THE DAYS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WE BEGIN TO GET A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST
COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THETAE ADVECTION
INCREASES...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WHETHER WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT...MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
ON TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS TREND...BACKED OFF A
BIT MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. AS FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN
GET THIS FAR NORTH. SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WE COULD
STAY DRY...OR GET SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER THEY WILL STAY IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. A BIT MORE CONCERNING IS WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY. THEY
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30
TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 172101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. INSTABILITY PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT BUT WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT FORCING SUSPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE WARMER
GROUND AND THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNT EXPECTED NOT PLANNING ON ANY
SLIPPERY ROADS OR WALKWAYS. BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. DID LOWER LOWS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST
CWA...INTO THE MID 20S WHILE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH TO NEAR 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MOST SIGHTS BOTTOMING OUT BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN CLIMBING
AFTER THAT.

BY FRIDAY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MN
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TOWARDS A MOSTLY
SUNNY...ALBEIT WINDY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...NOT PLANNING ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME AS EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED WINDS...LOWERED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED
HIGHS...AFTERNOON RH VALUES STILL CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT...SO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF SD. WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY DRY. SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH...AND ONLY VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVERHEAD...NOT THINKING WE SEE TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATURDAY WILL THUS GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AROUND. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTERACTING WITH IT. THIS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THIS RAIN MAKES IT. BUT DID GO AHEAD AND
INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL LINE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THIS AREA
MAY END UP HAVING MORE OF A WET SUNDAY THAN DRY ONE...SO SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
A BIT TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CONCERNS...BUT 60S AND
70S SEEM LIKELY. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT IF IT ENDS
UP SUNNIER ON ONE OF THE DAYS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WE BEGIN TO GET A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST
COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS. MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THETAE ADVECTION
INCREASES...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WHETHER WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT...MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
ON TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS TREND...BACKED OFF A
BIT MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS VALUES FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. AS FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN
GET THIS FAR NORTH. SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WE COULD
STAY DRY...OR GET SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TOP REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
ICING NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LIKELY BEFORE
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KFSD 171130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO LATE. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH
TEMPERATURES. TRENDS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED MUCH MORE SEVERELY IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM BY SNOW COVER NORTH AND STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE TREND TO SLOW WARMING IN THESE
TWO AREAS INTO MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE GONE BY SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS TO KEEP MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S IN
A COUPLE SPOTS...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST WILL REACH NEAR 50...
EVEN WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LIFT FORCING LATER TONIGHT IS EXCLUSIVELY A RESULT OF LOWER TO MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT ACTING TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER LIFT. HARD TO JUSTIFY ANY MORE THAN THE LOWEST OF A
CHANCE POPS...AND WILL CONCENTRATE JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPPORT FROM
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS SD LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF LOWER LEVEL SOMEWHAT DRIER LAYER TO OVERCOME.
LIKELY THAT EVENTUAL CLIMB IN SURFACE TEMPS IN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS UNDERESTIMATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS IS
THE CASE IN ALMOST ANY SIMILAR EVENT...AND FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST THREAT FOR ANY MIXED TYPE OF THE INSIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE MUCH GREATER THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
OR SPRINKLES THAN ANYTHING ELSE...WITH JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO BE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME THREAT THAT THE MEAGER WET BULB
PROCESSES IN LIGHT RATES WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF MIX TO SNOW
BY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SWITCH ENTIRELY TO LIGHT RAINFALL OR
SPRINKLES AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE
MORNING. DRY LOW LEVELS AND MEAGER SUPPORT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED
COVERAGE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AVERAGING 25
TO 35 MPH IN OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS STRONGEST.
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT WILL BE DECIDEDLY
COOLER IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A VERY MILD NIGHT. BUMPED LOWS UP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
GIVEN VERY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND +12C AT 850 MB AND
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A DECENT FETCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...BOOSTING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 40S. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY MORNING AND
SAGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE WAVE MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A SECOND WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE STAYING WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK RATHER MINIMAL DURING THE DAY.
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR EASTERN HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEST
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OUR
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND NUDGES EAST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
AND GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
THAN THE ALLBLEND ON SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT LEAST IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE PLEASANT DURING THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
THE 70S. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AS WARM AS +20C. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING A NICE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED...LIKELY ELEVATED
STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY 14Z FOR KSUX...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...BUT LOW ENOUGH PERCEIVED THREAT TO KEEP FROM
MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 170923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
423 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO LATE. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH
TEMPERATURES. TRENDS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED MUCH MORE SEVERELY IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM BY SNOW COVER NORTH AND STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE TREND TO SLOW WARMING IN THESE
TWO AREAS INTO MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE GONE BY SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS TO KEEP MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S IN
A COUPLE SPOTS...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST WILL REACH NEAR 50...
EVEN WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LIFT FORCING LATER TONIGHT IS EXCLUSIVELY A RESULT OF LOWER TO MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT ACTING TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER LIFT. HARD TO JUSTIFY ANY MORE THAN THE LOWEST OF A
CHANCE POPS...AND WILL CONCENTRATE JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPPORT FROM
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS SD LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE IMPACT OF LOWER LEVEL SOMEWHAT DRIER LAYER TO OVERCOME.
LIKELY THAT EVENTUAL CLIMB IN SURFACE TEMPS IN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS UNDERESTIMATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS IS
THE CASE IN ALMOST ANY SIMILAR EVENT...AND FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST THREAT FOR ANY MIXED TYPE OF THE INSIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE MUCH GREATER THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
OR SPRINKLES THAN ANYTHING ELSE...WITH JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO BE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME THREAT THAT THE MEAGER WET BULB
PROCESSES IN LIGHT RATES WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF MIX TO SNOW
BY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SWITCH ENTIRELY TO LIGHT RAINFALL OR
SPRINKLES AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE
MORNING. DRY LOW LEVELS AND MEAGER SUPPORT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED
COVERAGE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AVERAGING 25
TO 35 MPH IN OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS STRONGEST.
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT WILL BE DECIDEDLY
COOLER IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A VERY MILD NIGHT. BUMPED LOWS UP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
GIVEN VERY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND +12C AT 850 MB AND
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A DECENT FETCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...BOOSTING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 40S. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY MORNING AND
SAGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE WAVE MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A SECOND WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE STAYING WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK RATHER MINIMAL DURING THE DAY.
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR EASTERN HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEST
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OUR
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND NUDGES EAST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
AND GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
THAN THE ALLBLEND ON SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT LEAST IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE PLEASANT DURING THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
THE 70S. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AS WARM AS +20C. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING A NICE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED...LIKELY ELEVATED
STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT A CLEARING TREND AS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY THE CLEARING LINE IS PAST THE KHON TAF
SITE...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. THE CLEARING LINE WILL ENCROACH INTO THE KFSD TAF SITE
CLOSE TO 10Z/17 AND THE KSUX TAF SITE PROJECTED AROUND 13Z/17.
ONCE THE CLEARING TAKE HOLDS...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE VFR ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ










000
FXUS63 KFSD 170408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

700-750 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2-3 INCHES.  LARGE BATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE RADIATIVE COOLING...ALONG WITH THE GRADIENT WIND
THAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SIDED
CLOSE TO CONS LOWS...BUT LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTH ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.

HAVE SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE STRATUS WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 850 HPA MIXOUT...WITH
WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY FEATURING THE WEAKER
WAVE...QUICKER BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...IS COMING TRUE. DOES APPEAR LIKE THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW. THINKING
ANYTHING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW OR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL ISSUES AT
THIS POINT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FULL MIXING INTO OUR WARM 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THUS WENT AHEAD AND MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...RAISING THEM INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE EVEN END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE A BIT COMPLICATED WITH OUR CWA SPLIT
FROM THE BEST FORCING...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE STAYING
NORTH...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY ALSO
REMAINS PRETTY MINIMAL OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
STAYING SOUTH. STILL KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY. AS WE MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT THOUGH. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH SOME INTERACTION FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS
RESULTS IN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY THE ECMWF IS REALLY SHOWING
THIS...SO WILL GO JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE ON
WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES IS LOW. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED HIGHS UP BOTH DAYS TOWARDS
CONSENSUS VALUES. EXACT HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT EACH DAY...SO AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST HIGHS UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THUS THE WARM CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING VERY WARM. HOWEVER
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
AND EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE MOST WE CAN SAY IS
THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR TWO OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT A CLEARING TREND AS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY THE CLEARING LINE IS PAST THE KHON TAF
SITE...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. THE CLEARING LINE WILL ENCROACH INTO THE KFSD TAF SITE
CLOSE TO 10Z/17 AND THE KSUX TAF SITE PROJECTED AROUND 13Z/17.
ONCE THE CLEARING TAKE HOLDS...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE VFR ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KFSD 162325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

700-750 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2-3 INCHES.  LARGE BATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE RADIATIVE COOLING...ALONG WITH THE GRADIENT WIND
THAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SIDED
CLOSE TO CONS LOWS...BUT LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTH ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.

HAVE SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE STRATUS WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 850 HPA MIXOUT...WITH
WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY FEATURING THE WEAKER
WAVE...QUICKER BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...IS COMING TRUE. DOES APPEAR LIKE THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW. THINKING
ANYTHING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW OR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL ISSUES AT
THIS POINT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FULL MIXING INTO OUR WARM 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THUS WENT AHEAD AND MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...RAISING THEM INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE EVEN END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE A BIT COMPLICATED WITH OUR CWA SPLIT
FROM THE BEST FORCING...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE STAYING
NORTH...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY ALSO
REMAINS PRETTY MINIMAL OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
STAYING SOUTH. STILL KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY. AS WE MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT THOUGH. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH SOME INTERACTION FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS
RESULTS IN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY THE ECMWF IS REALLY SHOWING
THIS...SO WILL GO JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE ON
WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES IS LOW. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED HIGHS UP BOTH DAYS TOWARDS
CONSENSUS VALUES. EXACT HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT EACH DAY...SO AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST HIGHS UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THUS THE WARM CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING VERY WARM. HOWEVER
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
AND EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE MOST WE CAN SAY IS
THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR TWO OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/17 AS A BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE PREVAILING
CATEGORY IN THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AS STRATUS MOVES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND GFS PROJECT THIS STRATUS TO EXIT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
     072.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ









000
FXUS63 KFSD 162119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

700-750 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2-3 INCHES.  LARGE BATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE RADIATIVE COOLING...ALONG WITH THE GRADIENT WIND
THAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SIDED
CLOSE TO CONS LOWS...BUT LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTH ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.

HAVE SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE STRATUS WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 850 HPA MIXOUT...WITH
WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY FEATURING THE WEAKER
WAVE...QUICKER BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...IS COMING TRUE. DOES APPEAR LIKE THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW. THINKING
ANYTHING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW OR A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL ISSUES AT
THIS POINT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR FULL MIXING INTO OUR WARM 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THUS WENT AHEAD AND MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...RAISING THEM INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE EVEN END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE A BIT COMPLICATED WITH OUR CWA SPLIT
FROM THE BEST FORCING...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE STAYING
NORTH...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY ALSO
REMAINS PRETTY MINIMAL OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
STAYING SOUTH. STILL KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY. AS WE MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GET A FEW SHOWERS...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT THOUGH. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH SOME INTERACTION FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS
RESULTS IN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY THE ECMWF IS REALLY SHOWING
THIS...SO WILL GO JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE ON
WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES IS LOW. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED HIGHS UP BOTH DAYS TOWARDS
CONSENSUS VALUES. EXACT HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT EACH DAY...SO AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST HIGHS UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THUS THE WARM CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING VERY WARM. HOWEVER
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
AND EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW THE MOST WE CAN SAY IS
THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR TWO OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAYS HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL DROP TO IFR AS
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DROP IN MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW. BAND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL PIVOT FROM WEST TO EAST. BAND WILL
AFFECT THE KFSD TERMINAL FROM 19-22Z WITH VISBY FALLING DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE OR SO IN SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY...BUT MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
     072.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 161919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
219 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA E ADVECTION
HAS PROMOTED SHOWER TYPE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS ALLOWED THERMAL PROFILES TO WET BULB ENOUGH OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND AND MIXTURE ALONG THE I-29
CORRIDOR. WITH EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THERE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD AT LEAST REMAIN A MIX IF NOT ENTIRELY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WITH
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND SETTING UP FURTHER TO THE WEST. UPDATE
POSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LEADING PV SURGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. LIFT INCREASING WITH
BROAD DIV Q OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY DOWN LOW...AND INCREASING RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE YET TO REACH THE
SURFACE AT REPORTING SITES. LIKELY THAT WILL START TO GET SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH 700-500
LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE A
MORE DYNAMICALLY SIGNIFICANT BAND START TO WANDER IN AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE MIX TO ANY LIGHT
LEADING SHOWERS WILL GRACE THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO START
TO MORNING.

CHALLENGING LITTLE EVOLUTION TO SYSTEM TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SHARPENING WAVELENGTH SYSTEM
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD BE A SHARP LIFT/DESCENT COUPLET
WITH SUCH A SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME WARMER AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BATTLE THE WET BULB FOR A WHILE
LIKELY SHIFTING ALL EASTERN AREAS TO RAIN...WHILE THE INITIAL
COOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY MID TO LATE MORNING STARTS A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FIRST...WORKING MAINLY EAST
AND A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
BE THE WINDOW WHERE COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH LIFT AND
PIVOTING OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAINLY CLOSER TO THE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
TIMING OF THE CHANGE IS DIFFICULT GIVEN HOW WARM THE WARMER AIRMASS
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH MONITORING OF A DRY SURGE
NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY HEADING
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND DE SMET TOWARD AREAS JUST WEST OF
KMML...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES POTENTIAL. WITH WET NATURE OF
SNOWFALL...UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF ANY OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION
WILL EE FROM WIND...BUT RATHER FROM SNOWFALL INTENSITY WITH A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE INDICATIVE OF MORE INTENSE
BANDING.

BY 00Z...PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL HAVE ENDED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS THE FAR E/NE AREAS...WITH A MORE SHALLOW
LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WRAPPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD
DURING EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHANCE TO LOWER
LIKELY POPS AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENING...BUT RAPIDLY RAMP DOWN
EXPECTATIONS. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT AFTER DEEPER SATURATION PULLS AWAY. STILL APPEARS
THAT STRATUS WILL BE A FORMIDABLE FOE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS FLOW REALLY NEVER GETS A GOOD CHANCE TO FLUSH
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. AS LOSE TEMPS IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT
ICE FORMATION...COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS LED INTO BY A FEW FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY CONSISTENCY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...NAM AND SREF ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MOVING IT INTO THE AREA
EARLIEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA -
THEREBY ALSO WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EVEN WITH WITH
WETTER NAM AND GFS...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...SO AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
REGARDLESS. THE NAM ESPECIALLY BRINGS IN SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
QPF...WHICH WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE CONSISTENT GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO
ENTIRELY DISCOUNT THE NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES...BUT WITH LOW INTER MODEL CONFIDENCE WILL CAP POPS BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH LARGE PATTERN
DIFFERENCES. DID NUDGE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WITH GREATER CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

RIDGING SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MIXY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW USHERING IN MUCH WARMER READINGS. DESPITE
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CWA SUGGEST THAT A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT
ANY REAL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL DROP TO IFR AS
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DROP IN MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW. BAND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL PIVOT FROM WEST TO EAST. BAND WILL
AFFECT THE KFSD TERMINAL FROM 19-22Z WITH VISBY FALLING DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE OR SO IN SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY...BUT MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ONE AREA TO WATCH FROM A FIRE BEHAVIOR STANDPOINT TODAY WILL BE
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA. SURGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK UP
TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WELL...AND HAVE WORKED IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS. AS TEMPS MIX IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY TO GET SOME WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WINDS TO COLLOCATE WITH HUMIDITY FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME INDICATION DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN BE A TOUCH LOWER...
AND IN THIS CASE...WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS IT STANDS...WILL END UP WITH VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ038-
     039.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
     072.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 161533
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA E ADVECTION
HAS PROMOTED SHOWER TYPE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS ALLOWED THERMAL PROFILES TO WET BULB ENOUGH OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND AND MIXTURE ALONG THE I-29
CORRIDOR. WITH EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THERE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD AT LEAST REMAIN A MIX IF NOT ENTIRELY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WITH
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND SETTING UP FURTHER TO THE WEST. UPDATE
POSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LEADING PV SURGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. LIFT INCREASING WITH
BROAD DIV Q OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY DOWN LOW...AND INCREASING RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE YET TO REACH THE
SURFACE AT REPORTING SITES. LIKELY THAT WILL START TO GET SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH 700-500
LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE A
MORE DYNAMICALLY SIGNIFICANT BAND START TO WANDER IN AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE MIX TO ANY LIGHT
LEADING SHOWERS WILL GRACE THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO START
TO MORNING.

CHALLENGING LITTLE EVOLUTION TO SYSTEM TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SHARPENING WAVELENGTH SYSTEM
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD BE A SHARP LIFT/DESCENT COUPLET
WITH SUCH A SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME WARMER AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BATTLE THE WET BULB FOR A WHILE
LIKELY SHIFTING ALL EASTERN AREAS TO RAIN...WHILE THE INITIAL
COOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY MID TO LATE MORNING STARTS A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FIRST...WORKING MAINLY EAST
AND A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
BE THE WINDOW WHERE COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH LIFT AND
PIVOTING OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAINLY CLOSER TO THE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
TIMING OF THE CHANGE IS DIFFICULT GIVEN HOW WARM THE WARMER AIRMASS
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH MONITORING OF A DRY SURGE
NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY HEADING
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND DE SMET TOWARD AREAS JUST WEST OF
KMML...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES POTENTIAL. WITH WET NATURE OF
SNOWFALL...UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF ANY OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION
WILL EE FROM WIND...BUT RATHER FROM SNOWFALL INTENSITY WITH A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE INDICATIVE OF MORE INTENSE
BANDING.

BY 00Z...PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL HAVE ENDED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS THE FAR E/NE AREAS...WITH A MORE SHALLOW
LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WRAPPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD
DURING EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHANCE TO LOWER
LIKELY POPS AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENING...BUT RAPIDLY RAMP DOWN
EXPECTATIONS. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT AFTER DEEPER SATURATION PULLS AWAY. STILL APPEARS
THAT STRATUS WILL BE A FORMIDABLE FOE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS FLOW REALLY NEVER GETS A GOOD CHANCE TO FLUSH
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. AS LOSE TEMPS IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT
ICE FORMATION...COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS LED INTO BY A FEW FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY CONSISTENCY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...NAM AND SREF ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MOVING IT INTO THE AREA
EARLIEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA -
THEREBY ALSO WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EVEN WITH WITH
WETTER NAM AND GFS...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...SO AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
REGARDLESS. THE NAM ESPECIALLY BRINGS IN SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
QPF...WHICH WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE CONSISTENT GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO
ENTIRELY DISCOUNT THE NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES...BUT WITH LOW INTER MODEL CONFIDENCE WILL CAP POPS BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH LARGE PATTERN
DIFFERENCES. DID NUDGE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WITH GREATER CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

RIDGING SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MIXY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW USHERING IN MUCH WARMER READINGS. DESPITE
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CWA SUGGEST THAT A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT
ANY REAL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE IN LOW LEVEL JET AREA AHEAD OF ADVANCING SYSTEM...
IMPACTING KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER EAST
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG INTERSTATE 90. CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE VFR...WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND SOME MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
BACK IN THE COLDER AIR. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AROUND KHON AND A SOMEWHAT SHORTER TIME FOR KFSD. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
DURING SNOWFALL...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ON PAVED SURFACES.
WHILE HAVE MENTIONED SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
NIGHT... THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT SUCH CEILINGS COULD LINGER A BIT
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AND MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS WELL AS SINK
TOWARD HIGHER END IFR LEVELS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ONE AREA TO WATCH FROM A FIRE BEHAVIOR STANDPOINT TODAY WILL BE
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA. SURGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK UP
TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WELL...AND HAVE WORKED IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS. AS TEMPS MIX IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY TO GET SOME WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WINDS TO COLLOCATE WITH HUMIDITY FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME INDICATION DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN BE A TOUCH LOWER...
AND IN THIS CASE...WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS IT STANDS...WILL END UP WITH VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ038-
     039.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
     072.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 161147
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
647 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LEADING PV SURGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. LIFT INCREASING WITH
BROAD DIV Q OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY DOWN LOW...AND INCREASING RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE YET TO REACH THE
SURFACE AT REPORTING SITES. LIKELY THAT WILL START TO GET SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH 700-500
LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE A
MORE DYNAMICALLY SIGNIFICANT BAND START TO WANDER IN AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE MIX TO ANY LIGHT
LEADING SHOWERS WILL GRACE THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO START
TO MORNING.

CHALLENGING LITTLE EVOLUTION TO SYSTEM TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SHARPENING WAVELENGTH SYSTEM
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD BE A SHARP LIFT/DESCENT COUPLET
WITH SUCH A SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME WARMER AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BATTLE THE WET BULB FOR A WHILE
LIKELY SHIFTING ALL EASTERN AREAS TO RAIN...WHILE THE INITIAL
COOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY MID TO LATE MORNING STARTS A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FIRST...WORKING MAINLY EAST
AND A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
BE THE WINDOW WHERE COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH LIFT AND
PIVOTING OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAINLY CLOSER TO THE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
TIMING OF THE CHANGE IS DIFFICULT GIVEN HOW WARM THE WARMER AIRMASS
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH MONITORING OF A DRY SURGE
NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY HEADING
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND DE SMET TOWARD AREAS JUST WEST OF
KMML...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES POTENTIAL. WITH WET NATURE OF
SNOWFALL...UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF ANY OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION
WILL EE FROM WIND...BUT RATHER FROM SNOWFALL INTENSITY WITH A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE INDICATIVE OF MORE INTENSE
BANDING.

BY 00Z...PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL HAVE ENDED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS THE FAR E/NE AREAS...WITH A MORE SHALLOW
LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WRAPPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD
DURING EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHANCE TO LOWER
LIKELY POPS AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENING...BUT RAPIDLY RAMP DOWN
EXPECTATIONS. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT AFTER DEEPER SATURATION PULLS AWAY. STILL APPEARS
THAT STRATUS WILL BE A FORMIDABLE FOE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS FLOW REALLY NEVER GETS A GOOD CHANCE TO FLUSH
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. AS LOSE TEMPS IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT
ICE FORMATION...COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS LED INTO BY A FEW FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY CONSISTENCY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...NAM AND SREF ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MOVING IT INTO THE AREA
EARLIEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA -
THEREBY ALSO WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EVEN WITH WITH
WETTER NAM AND GFS...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...SO AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
REGARDLESS. THE NAM ESPECIALLY BRINGS IN SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
QPF...WHICH WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE CONSISTENT GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO
ENTIRELY DISCOUNT THE NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES...BUT WITH LOW INTER MODEL CONFIDENCE WILL CAP POPS BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH LARGE PATTERN
DIFFERENCES. DID NUDGE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WITH GREATER CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

RIDGING SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MIXY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW USHERING IN MUCH WARMER READINGS. DESPITE
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CWA SUGGEST THAT A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT
ANY REAL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE IN LOW LEVEL JET AREA AHEAD OF ADVANCING SYSTEM...
IMPACTING KFSD AND KSUX TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER EAST
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG INTERSTATE 90. CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE VFR...WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND SOME MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
BACK IN THE COLDER AIR. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AROUND KHON AND A SOMEWHAT SHORTER TIME FOR KFSD. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
DURING SNOWFALL...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ON PAVED SURFACES.
WHILE HAVE MENTIONED SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
NIGHT... THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT SUCH CEILINGS COULD LINGER A BIT
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AND MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS WELL AS SINK
TOWARD HIGHER END IFR LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ONE AREA TO WATCH FROM A FIRE BEHAVIOR STANDPOINT TODAY WILL BE
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA. SURGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK UP
TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WELL...AND HAVE WORKED IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS. AS TEMPS MIX IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY TO GET SOME WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WINDS TO COLLOCATE WITH HUMIDITY FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME INDICATION DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN BE A TOUCH LOWER...
AND IN THIS CASE...WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS IT STANDS...WILL END UP WITH VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN








000
FXUS63 KFSD 160918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LEADING PV SURGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD. LIFT INCREASING WITH
BROAD DIV Q OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY DOWN LOW...AND INCREASING RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE YET TO REACH THE
SURFACE AT REPORTING SITES. LIKELY THAT WILL START TO GET SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH 700-500
LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE A
MORE DYNAMICALLY SIGNIFICANT BAND START TO WANDER IN AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HEADING TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE MIX TO ANY LIGHT
LEADING SHOWERS WILL GRACE THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS TO START
TO MORNING.

CHALLENGING LITTLE EVOLUTION TO SYSTEM TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SHARPENING WAVELENGTH SYSTEM
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD BE A SHARP LIFT/DESCENT COUPLET
WITH SUCH A SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME WARMER AIR WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BATTLE THE WET BULB FOR A WHILE
LIKELY SHIFTING ALL EASTERN AREAS TO RAIN...WHILE THE INITIAL
COOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BY MID TO LATE MORNING STARTS A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FIRST...WORKING MAINLY EAST
AND A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
BE THE WINDOW WHERE COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALONG WITH LIFT AND
PIVOTING OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAINLY CLOSER TO THE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
TIMING OF THE CHANGE IS DIFFICULT GIVEN HOW WARM THE WARMER AIRMASS
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH MONITORING OF A DRY SURGE
NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY HEADING
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND DE SMET TOWARD AREAS JUST WEST OF
KMML...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES POTENTIAL. WITH WET NATURE OF
SNOWFALL...UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF ANY OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION
WILL EE FROM WIND...BUT RATHER FROM SNOWFALL INTENSITY WITH A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE INDICATIVE OF MORE INTENSE
BANDING.

BY 00Z...PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEPER FORCING WILL HAVE ENDED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS THE FAR E/NE AREAS...WITH A MORE SHALLOW
LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WRAPPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD
DURING EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHANCE TO LOWER
LIKELY POPS AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENING...BUT RAPIDLY RAMP DOWN
EXPECTATIONS. STILL WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT AFTER DEEPER SATURATION PULLS AWAY. STILL APPEARS
THAT STRATUS WILL BE A FORMIDABLE FOE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS FLOW REALLY NEVER GETS A GOOD CHANCE TO FLUSH
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. AS LOSE TEMPS IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT
ICE FORMATION...COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS LED INTO BY A FEW FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY CONSISTENCY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...NAM AND SREF ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE THIS WAVE...WITH THE GFS MOVING IT INTO THE AREA
EARLIEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA -
THEREBY ALSO WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EVEN WITH WITH
WETTER NAM AND GFS...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...SO AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
REGARDLESS. THE NAM ESPECIALLY BRINGS IN SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
QPF...WHICH WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE MORE CONSISTENT GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO
ENTIRELY DISCOUNT THE NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES...BUT WITH LOW INTER MODEL CONFIDENCE WILL CAP POPS BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH LARGE PATTERN
DIFFERENCES. DID NUDGE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WITH GREATER CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS.

RIDGING SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MIXY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW USHERING IN MUCH WARMER READINGS. DESPITE
CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CWA SUGGEST THAT A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT
ANY REAL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A
WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BUMPING
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING VERY WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06 TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSUX/KFSD OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND AS TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY....MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR ICING ON RUNWAYS/TARMACS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 17/00Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ONE AREA TO WATCH FROM A FIRE BEHAVIOR STANDPOINT TODAY WILL BE
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA. SURGE OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK UP
TOWARD NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WELL...AND HAVE WORKED IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS. AS TEMPS MIX IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY TO GET SOME WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WINDS TO COLLOCATE WITH HUMIDITY FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME INDICATION DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN BE A TOUCH LOWER...
AND IN THIS CASE...WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS IT STANDS...WILL END UP WITH VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN










000
FXUS63 KFSD 160405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06 TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSUX/KFSD OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND AS TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY....MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR ICING ON RUNWAYS/TARMACS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 17/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH












000
FXUS63 KFSD 152345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSUX/KFSD
OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...AND AS TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY....MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALSO LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLDING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR ICING ON RUNWAYS/TARMACS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH









000
FXUS63 KFSD 152053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EXPECT STOUT FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM BUT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWS QUITE MILD BUT HAVE SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STILL ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  EXPECT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. AM
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
BE RAIN...BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THIS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH IS MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
FOLLOWING THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXPECT PROFILES TO START DRYING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE BROOKINGS AREA WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.  HAVE MENTION OF SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS AS WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PROBABLY WILL SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICKER TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW...OR THAT CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS ALREADY BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE QUICKER BUILDING IN THE RIDGING ALOFT...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THUS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THE RIDGE. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND THE FACT THAT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BELIEVE THE WEAKER WAVE AND
FURTHER NORTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT US FROM SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THUS DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COULD EITHER BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...SO EVEN WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE. IN GOING WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT AHEAD AND WARMED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH PWAT VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THUS GET SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SO COULD
VERY WELL SEE SOME THUNDER THERE. WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH
WEAK...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GROW WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO RAISE THESE
POPS. DID WARM HIGHS SATURDAY...AS LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN FACT AM PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH IN OUR EAST...WHERE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME
70S. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE...FELT TRENDING UP WAS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY. DID BUMP
HIGHS UP SOME OVER CONSENSUS FOR EACH DAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED.
SO SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES...MAY EVEN NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS
UP A BIT MORE AS WE GET CLOSER. KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE
FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. BUT BEING THAT FAR OUT...TIMING
AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND WILL
HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AM...AND PRECIPITATION
MAY MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS
RAIN...WITH LESS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 151744
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...USHERING IN SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM NEARLY AS MUCH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ONLY CAP IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL...LIKELY CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 IN THE
EVENING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRACKS INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...SO RAISED LOWS A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DOES NOT
BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICK MOVING JET PUNCHING ON THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING EVOLVES TOWARD A SHARPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TO START THE DAY
AS SURFACE WAVE SETS UP NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY...AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF FEATURE INTO SW MN. TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE ALL RAIN TO START...BUT COLD
AIR WILL START TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY LATER MORNING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND CONTINUE TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TEND TO FAVOR A
STRONGER DUAL COUPLET OF QG FORCING...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN
WARM ADVECTIVE REGION OF THE FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT LESS WORKING
INTO WRAP AROUND BAND. A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...WITH A LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM BROOKINGS TOWARD MARSHALL SHOULD GET AROUND
AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST PREVALENT ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.ALMOST SEEMS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUELESS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...AND
HAVE SIDED MUCH CLOSER TO MORE EXTREME RAW DATA.

BY 00Z...LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SCOURED OUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A CONTINUED WRAPPING OF
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONE CONCERN
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE FAR
EAST IS THAT TEMPS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT...ALMOST APPEARS TO BE A SETUP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...WITH FLOW WORKING TOWARD AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WAVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM VARIES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
LATITUDNALLY...WITH ECMWF/00Z NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND GFS/06Z NAM/SREF SOUTHWARD. FORCING FOR LIFT
CONCENTRATED IN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AS
SECONDARY PV LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO ABANDON THE ZONE BY
EARLY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED POPS. TYPE AGAIN WILL BE
AN ISSUE...AND DANCING A FINE LINE BETWEEN TYPES DEPENDING ON
SOLUTION SET...WITH ANYTHING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY. WEEKEND NOW NOT LOOKING AS CLEAN WEATHERWISE WITH WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PRESS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL FORCING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA TO
SOMEWHAT A GREATER DEGREE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING IN
12-18 HOURS SLOWER LOOKS TO GIVE A STRONGER BOOST TO THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY NW IA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
EVENING. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD KEEP AREA
DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND WILL
HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AM...AND PRECIPITATION
MAY MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS
RAIN...WITH LESS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS63 KFSD 151140
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
640 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF...USHERING IN SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM NEARLY AS MUCH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT ONLY CAP IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
RELATIVELY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL...LIKELY CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 IN THE
EVENING.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRACKS INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...SO RAISED LOWS A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DOES NOT
BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICK MOVING JET PUNCHING ON THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING EVOLVES TOWARD A SHARPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TO START THE DAY
AS SURFACE WAVE SETS UP NEAR THE JAMES VALLEY...AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF FEATURE INTO SW MN. TEMPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE ALL RAIN TO START...BUT COLD
AIR WILL START TO SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY LATER MORNING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND CONTINUE TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TEND TO FAVOR A
STRONGER DUAL COUPLET OF QG FORCING...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN
WARM ADVECTIVE REGION OF THE FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT LESS WORKING
INTO WRAP AROUND BAND. A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...WITH A LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BY LATER MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM BROOKINGS TOWARD MARSHALL SHOULD GET AROUND
AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST PREVALENT ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.ALMOST SEEMS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUELESS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...AND
HAVE SIDED MUCH CLOSER TO MORE EXTREME RAW DATA.

BY 00Z...LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SCOURED OUT ANY DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A CONTINUED WRAPPING OF
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONE CONCERN
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE FAR
EAST IS THAT TEMPS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO ENSURE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT...ALMOST APPEARS TO BE A SETUP FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO...WITH FLOW WORKING TOWARD AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
THAT ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT
THAN MODELS INDICATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WAVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM VARIES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
LATITUDNALLY...WITH ECMWF/00Z NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL FURTHER
NORTHWARD AND GFS/06Z NAM/SREF SOUTHWARD. FORCING FOR LIFT
CONCENTRATED IN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AS
SECONDARY PV LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO ABANDON THE ZONE BY
EARLY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED POPS. TYPE AGAIN WILL BE
AN ISSUE...AND DANCING A FINE LINE BETWEEN TYPES DEPENDING ON
SOLUTION SET...WITH ANYTHING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE SETTLED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY. WEEKEND NOW NOT LOOKING AS CLEAN WEATHERWISE WITH WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PRESS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  INITIAL FORCING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA TO
SOMEWHAT A GREATER DEGREE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING IN
12-18 HOURS SLOWER LOOKS TO GIVE A STRONGER BOOST TO THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY NW IA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
EVENING. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD KEEP AREA
DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF I-29
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 22Z AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THE LOW LEVEL JET
ALSO INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 40 KT AT 1000 FEET DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
WINDOM LINE AFTER 06Z, WIND SHEAR IS MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AND KSUX
TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL HOLD OFF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 12Z. WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SCATTERED OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH ONLY VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...









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