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000
FXUS63 KFSD 281841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
141 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 50-60 KNOTS IN THE 1500-2500 FT AGL LAYER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. SUB CLOUD LAYER IS
RELATIVELY DRY...AND WIND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SHOWERS COULD HELP
USHER NEAR SEVERE WINDS TO THE SURFACE TEMPORARILY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CLOUD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATOCU AND VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>054-057>060-063>065-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     061-062-066-067-069>071.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
141 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 50-60 KNOTS IN THE 1500-2500 FT AGL LAYER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. SUB CLOUD LAYER IS
RELATIVELY DRY...AND WIND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SHOWERS COULD HELP
USHER NEAR SEVERE WINDS TO THE SURFACE TEMPORARILY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CLOUD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATOCU AND VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>054-057>060-063>065-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     061-062-066-067-069>071.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COUPLE PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE KHON AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD...
WITH SOUTH WINDS FEATURING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 TO 55
KNOTS TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH
LOCATION. EVENTUALLY...THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RELAX WINDS A BIT...BUT AFTER PASSAGE ARE LIKELY TO FIND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS LATE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COUPLE PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE KHON AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD...
WITH SOUTH WINDS FEATURING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 TO 55
KNOTS TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH
LOCATION. EVENTUALLY...THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RELAX WINDS A BIT...BUT AFTER PASSAGE ARE LIKELY TO FIND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS LATE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COUPLE PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE KHON AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD...
WITH SOUTH WINDS FEATURING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 TO 55
KNOTS TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH
LOCATION. EVENTUALLY...THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RELAX WINDS A BIT...BUT AFTER PASSAGE ARE LIKELY TO FIND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS LATE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281133
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COUPLE PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE KHON AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD...
WITH SOUTH WINDS FEATURING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 TO 55
KNOTS TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH
LOCATION. EVENTUALLY...THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RELAX WINDS A BIT...BUT AFTER PASSAGE ARE LIKELY TO FIND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS LATE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280918
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLIER LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH OVER IN STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS SUPPORT FROM UPPER WAVE HAS
EXITED AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WHICH HAD BEEN PULLING EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAVE
SLOWED...AND NOW STARTING TO BACK A BIT WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND A
TEMPORARY NORTHERLY FEED ABOVE 900 HPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING IN THE CLOUD BEARING LEVELS...AS
APPROACH OF WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
WORK ON DECREASING THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM THE ADVECTIVE PUSH AS WELL AS EROSION OF THE FAIRLY THIN LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP THINGS LARGELY ON THE
STABLE SIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS NOT AMENABLE TO A GREAT WARMING POTENTIAL...WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S EAST...TO SOME LOWER TO MID 60S FAR WEST CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND START TO DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT.  TWO OVERRIDING CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM ARE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION TIMING/CHANCES. ECMWF HAS
PICKED UP THE PACE FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE
A BIT IN TIMING. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z
SUN...AND BEHIND SEE 925 HPA WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...AND A
PRESSURE RISE OF 4-6 HPA/3H. MAIN PRESSURE RISE COUPLET DOES NOT
IMPACT AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY THAT WILL SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS EVEN AIDED
A BIT BY DIABATIC IMPACTS OF HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH MOST OF THE WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WILL BE
INEVITABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF A PRECIP THREAT...PRESENCE OF STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AHEAD OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT...WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE.  REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS... SO WHILE QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON
THE SCARCE SIDE...SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE. COMPACT
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO NO QUALMS ABOUT INTRODUCING AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC STATE.
WITH SHARPNESS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST PV ADVECTION...WHICH SLIPS TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARD 06Z...AND PRETTY MUCH CLEARS THE CWA IN ALL
SOLUTIONS BY 12Z.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRAY QUITE A BIT FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION
TONIGHT WITH WARMER AIR PUSH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG
MIXING BEHIND. OVERALL...FAVORED A WARMER VIEW OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT WARY OF THREAT FOR CLEARING IN DRY SLOT BEHIND PRECIP
BAND TO COINCIDE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKNESS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VERY WINDY AND MORE MILD
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP THREAT TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN COLD
ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES/SURFACE GRADIENT ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...DESPITE A SLACKENING GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS IN 25-40MPH RANGE EVEN WEST OF I-29
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY EVENING...AND MUCH CALMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY COULD IMPACT DEGREE OF WARMING. THIS COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SHOWING CAPES
NEAR 1000J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP EAST OF YKN-FSD-IVANHOE LINE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL ON THE ORDER 300-600J/KG...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER PASSAGE. NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT
ENOUGH FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH GEM/ECMWF TRACKING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS LENDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY
ONE PERIOD AT THIS RANGE...SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IN EITHER CASE THOUGH...WITH MID 50S-MID 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 40S-50S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PRECEDED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH THIS RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
WINDS...ENTERING THE LOWER BRULE AND MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
OF WINDS SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL...THESE
WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT FINE FUELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL ANTICIPATE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...
WITH HIGHER READINGS AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY FAR FROM IDEAL...AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DEPENDENT ON ABILITY TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.
THUS STICKING WITH JUST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DID OPT
TO EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WE EXPECT
LESS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE
AREAS.

COULD AGAIN SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD FOCUS THIS THREAT IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HOURS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ256>258.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280343
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280343
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272312
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL
SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272312
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL
SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272312
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. WILL
SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY...GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272011
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HGIHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEASD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATUIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272011
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HGIHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEASD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATUIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272011
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW AREA WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE ACTING ON STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. THIS MEANS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN AREA WILL GET LITTLE. NOT THAT ANYONE
WILL GET A LOT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HALF INCH PLUS
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
COLLECTING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT TO GREATLY MODIFY THE INITIALLY
VERY DRY AIR. WITH THE COOLED AIR AND MOISTURE ADDED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WELL...LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN
EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DISSIPATING GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WARMING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW IN THE COOL EAST.
HGIHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST...TO THE
60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BREEZY LEVELS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOWING A FASTER ECMWF WHICH
COMES IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM MAINLY 6Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WIND WILL REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GOING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
SO LOWS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 35 TO 45 DEGREES.

THE WAVE EXITS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ON THE MODERATE SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO 60 TO 65 SOUTH.

WITH THE WAVE EXITING RAPIDLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 MPH...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID 70S DOWN
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL BE
THE WAVE THE SCOOTS THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND HOW MUCH COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW
BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES AT
925MB WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES F AT THE SURFACE. THE
DIFFERENCES THEN EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE SLOWER
12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER LOWS EVERYWHERE
AND WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA.
SHOULD SEE A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INGREDIENTS WILL
BE THERE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THING WILL BE TIMING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKING COOLER WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SURGING SOUTH. HIGHS
ABOUT 55 TO 65 ON THURSDAY AND 45 TO 55 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM ANY LIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE
THIS LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT BUT THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAINFALL THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS TIME... HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20
PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM
INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD. WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WENT AHEASD WITH A WATCH IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON RELATUIVE HUMIDITY IS AROUND 35
PERCENT. WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER BUT WINDS MAY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO WATCH IN NORTHWEST IOWA OR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ900.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS/PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY EAST OF OUR TAF
LOCATIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...
SO WILL STICK WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270941
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT UNSURE
IF CIGS WILL LOWER THAT FAR GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. COULD BE A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING AS WELL. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270941
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEAR AND COOL START TO THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON QUICK MOVING MID
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WAVE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN PROBLEM IS THE WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AIR MASS WHICH IS
STARTING OUT QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB...SO INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LOST TO
SATURATION WHICH SHOULD NOT ONLY DELAY THE START OF PRECIP...BUT
ALSO REDUCE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP
ALTOGETHER THROUGH 18Z IN OUR CWA...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ALREADY POINTING TO EVEN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE...IF ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE...ALSO A LITTLE
TRICKY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE
SUGGEST A BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT DEPTH OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND SATURATION SHOULD COOL THE DRY
LAYER TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL STICK
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS 40 OR SO...AS THAT IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND QUESTIONS
ON EXTENT OF SATURATION...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE
MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...AT MOST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN THAT. SNOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BUT CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BACKED WELL THROUGH THE CWA TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EROSION ALONG THE EDGES SHOULD
HAVE IT WELL TO THE DECREASING SIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH DAMAGE WILL BE DONE TO WARMING POTENTIAL TO
HOLD HIGHS MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GET QUITE STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGEST
GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
WHICH FAVOR A BUFFALO RIDGE ENHANCEMENT..PERHAPS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH.

LARGEST CHALLENGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
THE VARIATION IN TIMING OF WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH MORE SPLIT TROUGH
ENERGY AND SLOWER PROGRESSION TO SYSTEM...WHILE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
REMAIN MUCH QUICKER ON PROGRESSION. EC AT LEAST A FULL 6 HOURS
LATER ON BRINGING IN THE BETTER LIFT FORCING. GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A SMALL SUBSET IN SUPPORT...SO HARD TO FULLY
IGNORE. THEREFORE...HAVE STRETCHED OUT THE LOWER POPS A BIT SLOWER
AND WESTWARD IN THE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY PERIODS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DYNAMICAL LIFT FORCING...SO STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A
COUPLE ROGUE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR... MORE
TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 HPA/3H WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...DIRECTIONALLY SUPPORTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OF NORTHWEST WIND IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SW MN AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND
TREND TO GREATER SUNSHINE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT
THE STRONG WINDS SURFACING.  CERTAIN IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSED BELOW.

MILDER PERIOD FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY...AS MODELS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY MIXY DAY...BUT THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS
OTHER DAYS. MAIN IMPACT OF MIXING WILL BE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT LOWER...AND HAVE PLACED A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS
MIXING FROM AROUND 850 HPA.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD SAG INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE
ON TUESDAY...OTHER THAN TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND A BIT. TEMPS REMAIN
LARGELY NEAR THOSE FROM MONDAY ALOFT...PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER
NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT MAINLY PLEASANT MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPEARS AROUND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ENHANCEMENT OF MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME THUNDER INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON ANY RAINFALL...WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER DAY...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

TEMPS SLIP BACK SOMEWHAT TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...AND MORE IMPACT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTO THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT DEVIATIONS FROM INITIALIZATION
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT UNSURE
IF CIGS WILL LOWER THAT FAR GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. COULD BE A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING AS WELL. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ROOT OF CAUSE TO EXPECTED VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO RECOVER FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WOULD BE THIS
LATTER LIGHT RAINFALL WHICH COULD KEEP PARTS OF SW MN FROM
ATTAINING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL BEHAVIOR. AT THIS TIME...
HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOCKED IN AT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN LOWER BRULE
AREAS..BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM INTERSTATE 29 EASTWARD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270346
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT UNSURE
IF CIGS WILL LOWER THAT FAR GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. COULD BE A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING AS WELL. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270346
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT UNSURE
IF CIGS WILL LOWER THAT FAR GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. COULD BE A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING AS WELL. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AFTER 21Z ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. COULD BE A BIT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AFTER 21Z ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. COULD BE A BIT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SLOW LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD DECK. MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AFTER 21Z ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. COULD BE A BIT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262013
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH 23Z
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WEST AND
SOUTH OF MHE AND WEST OF YKN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
23Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA INCLUDING TAF SITES GENERALLY VFR WITH
SOME CEILINGS 3-5K FEET. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 1-3K FEET FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262013
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CURRENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY AND IN FACT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. SNOW AND MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SNOW AREA WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTAIRS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY ON WEBCAMS.

A CLEARING TREND COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVELS BEING MORE STUBBORN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO GO NORTHEAST TO EAST. DECENT
COOLING IS EXPECTED EAST AND LESS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EAST TO THE 20S WEST.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
A DECENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A SETUP FOR
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE AIR BY ALL
MODELS DRIES A LOT BELOW MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE AN
INHIBITOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE FRIDAY...SLOWING IT
AT THE VERY LEAST. WILL PROGRESS POPS OF LOW CHANCE AT MOST FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SIMPLE WITH
NO ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN VERSUS SNOW
WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE
FAIRLY LOW POPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW AT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SINCE IF ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO REACH
THE SURFACE...THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL INVOLVE QUITE A BIT OF
COOLING AS WELL AND BRING INSTANT COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE OF THE DRY
AIR...AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT...PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EAST
TO 40S WEST...EXCEPT SOME 50S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
MAKE IT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE WET SNOW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PASSING THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AND A LITTLE COOL AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL AIR LOCKED IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE MODELS. AIMING FOR MAINLY 40S ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND MAINLY 50S TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 60S
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. PROFILES DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL NEED TO THROW
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL
STILL LEANING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WHICH POSES A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HIGH TO POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AFTER A SMALL THREAT FOR
RAINFALL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 40 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FOREFRONT. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EXPECTED BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL OUTPUT STILL
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME. STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF A WAVE ON OR
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL WITH THE WAVE NOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY THE
EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH 23Z
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WEST AND
SOUTH OF MHE AND WEST OF YKN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
23Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA INCLUDING TAF SITES GENERALLY VFR WITH
SOME CEILINGS 3-5K FEET. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 1-3K FEET FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261748
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF THE NEARING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE AN
ASSORTMENT OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA FROM A LITTLE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO NEAR YANKTON AND
SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO GREGORY AND HAVE UPDATED FOR
HIGHER POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH...BUT COULD LOCALLY GET CLOSE TO THAT MARK. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
PERHAPS THE START OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH 23Z
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WEST AND
SOUTH OF MHE AND WEST OF YKN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
23Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA INCLUDING TAF SITES GENERALLY VFR WITH
SOME CEILINGS 3-5K FEET. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 1-3K FEET FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261748
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF THE NEARING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE AN
ASSORTMENT OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA FROM A LITTLE NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN TO NEAR YANKTON AND
SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO GREGORY AND HAVE UPDATED FOR
HIGHER POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH...BUT COULD LOCALLY GET CLOSE TO THAT MARK. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
PERHAPS THE START OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH 23Z
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WEST AND
SOUTH OF MHE AND WEST OF YKN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
23Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA INCLUDING TAF SITES GENERALLY VFR WITH
SOME CEILINGS 3-5K FEET. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 1-3K FEET FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PATCHY LOW END VFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS IT TRACKS INTO IOWA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE LOWER BRULE
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BECOMING LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PATCHY LOW END VFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS IT TRACKS INTO IOWA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE LOWER BRULE
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BECOMING LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PATCHY LOW END VFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS IT TRACKS INTO IOWA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE LOWER BRULE
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BECOMING LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PATCHY LOW END VFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS IT TRACKS INTO IOWA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE LOWER BRULE
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BECOMING LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

STRATUS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. CIG HEIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THOUGH. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES CLOSER TO GREGORY COUNTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260942
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLIPPER WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY WITH CHANCE POPS
IN BRULE AND CHARLES MIX. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SLUSHY SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF PRECIPITATION RATES PICK UP A BIT AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MANAGE TO WET BULB. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
TENTH OR SO OF QPF IN GREGORY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
WENT WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE - HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH CLOUDS IN
THE FAR WEST...LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...FAIRLY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
CHILLY RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WHICH IS STUBBORN
BUT DOES SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL MAKE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD...BUT FORCING IS LARGELY LIMITED EARLY IN THE
DAY TO WARM ADVECTION AND PROCESS OF SATURATION. THEREFORE...NOT
INCLINED TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH MUCH MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...MOVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
DRASTIC INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED...WITH
THIS FRONTAL TIGHTENING MORE THAN IN PART DUE TO WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. SATURATION
DEEPENS...AND ALLOWS ICE PROCESSES TO BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MAY SEE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND PROXIMITY TO
WARMER PUSH ALOFT ALLOWING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START IN THE WEST...
THE TENDENCY FOR COLD AIR TO REMAIN ALOFT IN THE EAST WILL CREATE
A FEW TYPE ISSUES AS FORCING SPREADS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD LIKELY HAVE GONE WITH A SHARPER SURFACE THERMAL
DROP WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IF HIGHER POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST...AND WITH ANY WARMER PARTS OF THE PROFILE NEAR
SURFACE...DIABATIC COOLING PROVIDES SUPPORT TO RETAIN SNOW ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29. BAND MAXIMIZES EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...WHERE HAVE THE AMOUNTS OF
MAINLY HALF INCH TO INCH...LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. CONCERN FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS IS ABSENT WITH THE OVERALL STABLE PROFILE.
HOWEVER...ONE ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE LOSS OF DEEPER SATURATION
LATER INTO THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY YIELD A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.

AS WAVE PASSES BY ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE BUILDING PRESSURES TO
THE EAST WILL INHIBIT FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE LOWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS AND LIKELY BACKING THE LOWER CLOUDS WESTWARD AGAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BATTLE
WARMING AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL ERODE/ADVECT TO A
POINT WHICH THERE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I29. HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE WILL BE DONE
BY THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE AND EAST OF SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...
WITH ENOUGH SIGNAL TO CUT BACK HIGHS EASTERN CWA A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...WHILE 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WEST
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY.

WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
VARIATIONS ON HOW SPLITTY THE WAVE WILL BE...WITH ECMWF TAKING A
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GFS
MORE CONSOLIDATED IN NORTHERN STREAM WITH QUICKER PROGRESSION.
EACH SOLUTION DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT FORCING HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH A SHOWERY TYPE RAIN CHANCE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO FIND A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 8-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE WHEN STRONGER PV ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA LATE NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY MIXY DAY...WITH UP TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND AT 85O HPA EARLY IN THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR INDICATED
ON RAW MODEL SOUNDING AS WELL...WELL BELOW STATISTICAL NUMBERS...
WHICH DESPITE A COOLER TEMPERATURE RESULTS IN A FIRE DANGER
CONCERN DISCUSSED BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WELL AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS MIXED OUT SOLUTIONS.

FOR MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLING IN ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER AS
SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE A STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO COUPLE WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH ONE POTENTIAL WAVE ON
MONDAY PASSING NORTH...SETS UP A CLASSIC PRE FRONTAL MIXING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY WARMER AND DRIER SOUTH OF I 90 THAN
SOLUTIONS INDICATE. TUESDAY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD REPRODUCE A DEEPER
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE MEAGER...AND IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...
IF EVEN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

STRATUS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. CIG HEIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THOUGH. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES CLOSER TO GREGORY COUNTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35
TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT WEST...AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED CONCERN FOR ALL WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260356
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TWO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. FIRST...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST...AS STRATUS IS BUILDING BACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. COULD BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT...BUT
MODEL RH AROUND 850 MB SUGGESTS IT VERY WELL COULD STICK AROUND
AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY MORNING. THUS ALSO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED LOWS UP
A BIT IN THIS AREA.

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
THURSDAY. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN GREGORY
COUNTY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WEST OF
THE JAMES AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD MEAN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH WHERE THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE MODERATE PRECIP...WOULD THINK WE WOULD WET
BULB AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW. AGAIN...MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS IS AROUND GREGORY COUNTY...WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

STRATUS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. CIG HEIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THOUGH. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES CLOSER TO GREGORY COUNTY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260356
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TWO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. FIRST...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST...AS STRATUS IS BUILDING BACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. COULD BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT...BUT
MODEL RH AROUND 850 MB SUGGESTS IT VERY WELL COULD STICK AROUND
AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY MORNING. THUS ALSO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED LOWS UP
A BIT IN THIS AREA.

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
THURSDAY. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN GREGORY
COUNTY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WEST OF
THE JAMES AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD MEAN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH WHERE THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE MODERATE PRECIP...WOULD THINK WE WOULD WET
BULB AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW. AGAIN...MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS IS AROUND GREGORY COUNTY...WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

STRATUS BEGINNING TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. CIG HEIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THOUGH. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES CLOSER TO GREGORY COUNTY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260229
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
929 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TWO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. FIRST...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST...AS STRATUS IS BUILDING BACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. COULD BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT...BUT
MODEL RH AROUND 850 MB SUGGESTS IT VERY WELL COULD STICK AROUND
AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY MORNING. THUS ALSO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED LOWS UP
A BIT IN THIS AREA.

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
THURSDAY. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN GREGORY
COUNTY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WEST OF
THE JAMES AND ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD MEAN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH WHERE THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE MODERATE PRECIP...WOULD THINK WE WOULD WET
BULB AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW. AGAIN...MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS IS AROUND GREGORY COUNTY...WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN..POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251955
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET WILL BECOME VFR BY 23Z WITH
CLOUDS THEN CLEARING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 26/18Z. SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED UNTIL 26/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 251955
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN IS FINALLY WORKING TO THIN
AND DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS. DECREASE AND END OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ADD TO THIS AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PRETTY CLEAR THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURE TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FEEL CONFIDENT THE WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE
NEEDED PAST 23Z/5PM CDT...IF THAT LONG.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S TONIGHT. A LEVELING OF AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING SOUTHWEST CORNER AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
APPROACHING CLIPPER.

THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING A LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT SNOW AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
HEATING,,,GIVEN THAT THE ONLY CONCERN IS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE
POPS WILL BE LOW AT 20/30 MAX AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ON AMOUNTS. IF
THE PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE AIR AND
PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF IT BEING SNOW THAN INDICATED. THAT IS THE
PROBLEM IN BEING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH SUCH A LOW THREAT. WITHOUT THE PRECIPITATION...AND WE ONLY
HAVE THOSE LOW POPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM PRETTY MUCH AS DEPICTED
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS MAINLY SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. RECALLING A CHILLY APRIL DAY EONS AGO IN THE DC AREA
WHEN THE TEMP ROSE TO 46 LATE MORNING...STARTED RAINING...15 MINUTES
LATER IT WAS DOWN TO 34 AND SNOWING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND TENS TO HUG
THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET UP TO
MHE/FSD AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH IN ANY EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPPING SOUTH AND
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NOT PLANNING
ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW POPS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DOES
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL AIM FOR MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FROM
WARMING MUCH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
WITH MID 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY.

BY SATURDAY THE WARMING WILL SURGE A LITTLER FARTHER EAST SO EXPECT
WARMER READINGS. HOWEVER STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SO ONLY LOW POPS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY FAST WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD PERIOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY THAT IS MOST UP IN THE
AIR. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. SO THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN VIA THE ECMWF WHILE THE
GFS WOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE GEM IS NOT MUCH HELP AS IT IS ABOUT ON
PAR WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET WILL BECOME VFR BY 23Z WITH
CLOUDS THEN CLEARING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 26/18Z. SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED UNTIL 26/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





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