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000
FXUS63 KFSD 251737
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME CIRRUS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS
TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY DAY. SOME OF
THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BEST
RECENTLY...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY. THUS GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO SHOULD BE
A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLEST LOWS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FLOW WILL STAY WEAKER
LONGER...AND LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND 40 THERE. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE AN EARLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
CLEAR NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS IS A CONCERN ON SUNDAY...PLACED IN THE
EARLY MORNING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AND ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO GO
TOO FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEE SOME 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN KS AND OK. SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IS WILL POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THE ANSWER IS
YES IT COULD...AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE BULK
OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD BE BY MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY MIXED
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 900MB FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. BUT VENTURING ALONG
AND WEST OF I 29...HIGHER MIXING SHOULD GIVE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SIOUX CITY TO HURON LINE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STOUT ON SUNDAY...WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS COMMON
AT 900MB. THEREFORE EXPECTING A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TRANSLATING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION
IS NOT SETUP VERY GOOD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AS PRETTY HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PREVAILING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
LOWER BRULE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON DRYING THE AIR MASS OUT A
BIT...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SO THE HUMIDITY AND WINDS ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED VERY WELL TO
PRODUCE VERY HIGH OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN OUR AREA.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS. DID NOT WANT TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TOO
FAR THOUGH AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE MID AND UPPER QG FORCING IS
RATHER DIFFUSE AND NOT VERY ORGANIZED...WITH JET STREAM
ORIENTATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR LOCATION. THERE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS HOWEVER...WITH THE USUAL SLOPING FRONT AS 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS FAVORS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 600MB FRONTOGENESIS
IN OUR NORTH. MAXIMIZED THE POPS ALONG THE 700MB ZONE WHICH
RESIDES GENERALLY FROM TYNDALL AND YANKTON SD...NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND ONWARD TO WINDOM MN. NOT ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO GO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS YET HOWEVER...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OF
COURSE BE COOLER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS...WITH 60 TO 65 COMMON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ON TUESDAY...WITH MIXING ONLY
GIVING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS THE NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK...WITH WINDS EASILY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK
WAY TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

AFTER TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN NOT TOO BAD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THEY DO BEGIN DO DIVERGE PRETTY BAD
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO
HARMLESSLY PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING A BIT QUICKER. BUT
LEFT CONDITIONS DRY AT ANY RATE...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TOO
ABOVE...ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS FOR TEMPERATURES IS AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
DIVES IT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD REALLY ALLOW SOME COOL
AIR TO INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE PROPENSITY OF THE GFS TO BE
TOO PROGRESSIVE...BLENDED SOME COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIX FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES ONLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH 26/12Z OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT TAF
SITES THROUGH 26/18Z. LOW STRATUS WITH 1-2K FOOT CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER WEST OF YKN AFTER 26/12Z AND
OTHER CLOUDS AT 3-4K FEET AGL MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NON
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR BELOW 1K FEET AGL AFTER 26/10Z. SURFACE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER 26/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251144
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME CIRRUS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS
TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY DAY. SOME OF
THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BEST
RECENTLY...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY. THUS GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO SHOULD BE
A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLEST LOWS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FLOW WILL STAY WEAKER
LONGER...AND LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND 40 THERE. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE AN EARLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
CLEAR NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS IS A CONCERN ON SUNDAY...PLACED IN THE
EARLY MORNING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AND ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO GO
TOO FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEE SOME 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN KS AND OK. SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IS WILL POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THE ANSWER IS
YES IT COULD...AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE BULK
OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD BE BY MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY MIXED
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 900MB FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. BUT VENTURING ALONG
AND WEST OF I 29...HIGHER MIXING SHOULD GIVE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SIOUX CITY TO HURON LINE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STOUT ON SUNDAY...WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS COMMON
AT 900MB. THEREFORE EXPECTING A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TRANSLATING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION
IS NOT SETUP VERY GOOD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AS PRETTY HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PREVAILING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
LOWER BRULE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON DRYING THE AIR MASS OUT A
BIT...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SO THE HUMIDITY AND WINDS ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED VERY WELL TO
PRODUCE VERY HIGH OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN OUR AREA.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS. DID NOT WANT TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TOO
FAR THOUGH AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE MID AND UPPER QG FORCING IS
RATHER DIFFUSE AND NOT VERY ORGANIZED...WITH JET STREAM
ORIENTATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR LOCATION. THERE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS HOWEVER...WITH THE USUAL SLOPING FRONT AS 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS FAVORS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 600MB FRONTOGENESIS
IN OUR NORTH. MAXIMIZED THE POPS ALONG THE 700MB ZONE WHICH
RESIDES GENERALLY FROM TYNDALL AND YANKTON SD...NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND ONWARD TO WINDOM MN. NOT ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO GO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS YET HOWEVER...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OF
COURSE BE COOLER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS...WITH 60 TO 65 COMMON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ON TUESDAY...WITH MIXING ONLY
GIVING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS THE NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK...WITH WINDS EASILY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK
WAY TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

AFTER TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN NOT TOO BAD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THEY DO BEGIN DO DIVERGE PRETTY BAD
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO
HARMLESSLY PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING A BIT QUICKER. BUT
LEFT CONDITIONS DRY AT ANY RATE...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TOO
ABOVE...ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS FOR TEMPERATURES IS AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
DIVES IT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD REALLY ALLOW SOME COOL
AIR TO INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE PROPENSITY OF THE GFS TO BE
TOO PROGRESSIVE...BLENDED SOME COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIX FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES ONLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AND MAY BE CLOSE TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CRITERIA LATE. ALSO COULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN FORMING
OR MOVING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z...BUT FEEL
LIKE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD BEYOND
12Z...SO WILL KEEP THINGS VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 251144
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME CIRRUS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS
TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY DAY. SOME OF
THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BEST
RECENTLY...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY. THUS GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO SHOULD BE
A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLEST LOWS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FLOW WILL STAY WEAKER
LONGER...AND LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND 40 THERE. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE AN EARLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
CLEAR NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS IS A CONCERN ON SUNDAY...PLACED IN THE
EARLY MORNING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AND ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO GO
TOO FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEE SOME 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN KS AND OK. SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IS WILL POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THE ANSWER IS
YES IT COULD...AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE BULK
OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD BE BY MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY MIXED
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 900MB FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. BUT VENTURING ALONG
AND WEST OF I 29...HIGHER MIXING SHOULD GIVE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SIOUX CITY TO HURON LINE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STOUT ON SUNDAY...WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS COMMON
AT 900MB. THEREFORE EXPECTING A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TRANSLATING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION
IS NOT SETUP VERY GOOD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AS PRETTY HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PREVAILING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
LOWER BRULE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON DRYING THE AIR MASS OUT A
BIT...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SO THE HUMIDITY AND WINDS ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED VERY WELL TO
PRODUCE VERY HIGH OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN OUR AREA.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS. DID NOT WANT TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TOO
FAR THOUGH AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE MID AND UPPER QG FORCING IS
RATHER DIFFUSE AND NOT VERY ORGANIZED...WITH JET STREAM
ORIENTATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR LOCATION. THERE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS HOWEVER...WITH THE USUAL SLOPING FRONT AS 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS FAVORS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 600MB FRONTOGENESIS
IN OUR NORTH. MAXIMIZED THE POPS ALONG THE 700MB ZONE WHICH
RESIDES GENERALLY FROM TYNDALL AND YANKTON SD...NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND ONWARD TO WINDOM MN. NOT ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO GO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS YET HOWEVER...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OF
COURSE BE COOLER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS...WITH 60 TO 65 COMMON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ON TUESDAY...WITH MIXING ONLY
GIVING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS THE NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK...WITH WINDS EASILY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK
WAY TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

AFTER TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN NOT TOO BAD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THEY DO BEGIN DO DIVERGE PRETTY BAD
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO
HARMLESSLY PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING A BIT QUICKER. BUT
LEFT CONDITIONS DRY AT ANY RATE...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TOO
ABOVE...ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS FOR TEMPERATURES IS AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
DIVES IT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD REALLY ALLOW SOME COOL
AIR TO INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE PROPENSITY OF THE GFS TO BE
TOO PROGRESSIVE...BLENDED SOME COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIX FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES ONLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AND MAY BE CLOSE TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CRITERIA LATE. ALSO COULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN FORMING
OR MOVING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z...BUT FEEL
LIKE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD BEYOND
12Z...SO WILL KEEP THINGS VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250817
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME CIRRUS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS
TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY DAY. SOME OF
THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BEST
RECENTLY...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY. THUS GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO SHOULD BE
A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. COOLEST LOWS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE FLOW WILL STAY WEAKER
LONGER...AND LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND 40 THERE. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE AN EARLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
CLEAR NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS IS A CONCERN ON SUNDAY...PLACED IN THE
EARLY MORNING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AND ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO GO
TOO FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEE SOME 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN KS AND OK. SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IS WILL POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THE ANSWER IS
YES IT COULD...AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE BULK
OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD BE BY MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE ONLY MIXED
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 900MB FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. BUT VENTURING ALONG
AND WEST OF I 29...HIGHER MIXING SHOULD GIVE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SIOUX CITY TO HURON LINE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STOUT ON SUNDAY...WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS COMMON
AT 900MB. THEREFORE EXPECTING A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TRANSLATING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION
IS NOT SETUP VERY GOOD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AS PRETTY HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PREVAILING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
LOWER BRULE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON DRYING THE AIR MASS OUT A
BIT...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. SO THE HUMIDITY AND WINDS ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED VERY WELL TO
PRODUCE VERY HIGH OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN OUR AREA.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS. DID NOT WANT TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TOO
FAR THOUGH AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE MID AND UPPER QG FORCING IS
RATHER DIFFUSE AND NOT VERY ORGANIZED...WITH JET STREAM
ORIENTATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR LOCATION. THERE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS HOWEVER...WITH THE USUAL SLOPING FRONT AS 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS FAVORS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND 600MB FRONTOGENESIS
IN OUR NORTH. MAXIMIZED THE POPS ALONG THE 700MB ZONE WHICH
RESIDES GENERALLY FROM TYNDALL AND YANKTON SD...NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND ONWARD TO WINDOM MN. NOT ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO GO LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS YET HOWEVER...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OF
COURSE BE COOLER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS...WITH 60 TO 65 COMMON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ON TUESDAY...WITH MIXING ONLY
GIVING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS THE NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK...WITH WINDS EASILY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK
WAY TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

AFTER TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN NOT TOO BAD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THEY DO BEGIN DO DIVERGE PRETTY BAD
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO
HARMLESSLY PASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING A BIT QUICKER. BUT
LEFT CONDITIONS DRY AT ANY RATE...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TOO
ABOVE...ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS FOR TEMPERATURES IS AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
DIVES IT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD REALLY ALLOW SOME COOL
AIR TO INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE PROPENSITY OF THE GFS TO BE
TOO PROGRESSIVE...BLENDED SOME COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIX FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES ONLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS MIXING DECREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS MIXING DECREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 250350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS MIXING DECREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 242317
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 242000
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 241639
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1139 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT MID MORNING AS EXPECTED...AND NOW WILL BE
DEALING WITH A QUIET AND MILD DAY. PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS
ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT THIS TO THIN GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW BELOW IMPRESSIVE INVERSION ON
THE KABR 12Z RAOB...WILL PERHAPS BE A STRUGGLE TO WARM QUITE AS
MUCH AS EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL START TO COME UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AT WHICH TIME A BIT
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...AND WARMING RATES
WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL SEE A FEW READINGS TOWARD THE
UPPER 70S IN LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS...BUT MOSTLY LOWER TO A FEW MID
70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 241129
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AVIATION WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AT THIS TIME
HAVING PROGRESSED TO JUST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT...AND WORSE...THE THICK CIRRUS IS
OBSCURING THE FOG ON THE IR SATELLITE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
KHON SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY AS THEIR SURFACE WINDS HAVE
GONE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT HAVE VERY RECENTLY
GONE UP TO 5SM ALREADY. SO MAY HAVE TO AMEND THEM AT 12Z TO GO A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. KFSD IS PROBABLY THE MOST PROBLEMATIC
TAF...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENCROACHES IN ON THE SITE...FOGGY
CONDITIONS COULD GET QUITE CLOSE IN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. SO
IT WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY. KSUX IS WARMING UP...HELPING TO
WIDEN THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FOG MAY NOT BE A SERIOUS ISSUE THERE. BUT AGAIN...THEY TOO WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING UNTIL MID MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AT THAT SITE ALSO. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD...LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 240758
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.

BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.

NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 240341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 240341
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 232314
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS EVENING AS QUESTIONS REMAIN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS FROM SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...NO FOG
AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER...TO NONE OF THE ABOVE.

A SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...COMPLICATING THE FCST AND POSSIBLY PREVENTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POOL OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE FSD AREA.
WHILE NOT A TRUE RADIATION FOG EVENT...CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH...AND COULD LEAD TO RAPID FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MORE LIKELY IS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/LIFR FORECAST AND
LOWER VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE...WITH MAIN IMPACTS AT FSD/SUX.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN THURSDAY. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...VFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 232105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW.  HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.

AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.

WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY
RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING.
WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231805
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231805
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231128
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15Z-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME MODELS HINTING AT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 05Z TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. TRENDED VISIBILITY INTO MVFR-IFR RANGE AT
KFSD/KSUX DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060>062-065>071.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-089-
     097-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002-
     012-013-020.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230834
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND
EXITING RAIN SYSTEM. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTED IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES FELL WITH CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS
THROUGH 15Z/10 AM CDT. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS HOLD ON TO LOWEST
VISIBILITY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY LINGERING FOG BEYOND 10 AM GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES AND
CONTINUED LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITHIN WEAK RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER
GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS FOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT BY
15Z. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND NAM DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PLEASANT...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME
CIRRUS COULD HOLD DOWN HIGHS A TAD...BUT STILL THINK STAYING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
GOOD MIXING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

SOME UNCERTAINTY BY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES ACROSS LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US. LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AS MODEL CONSISTENCY ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS PERIOD LIKELY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME 60S ON
MONDAY...BUT 50S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING...THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-054-
     055-060>062-065>070.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230254
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 222309
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 222309
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE LINEAR BAND OF RAIN.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 222043
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF I 29
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH APPROACH OF
RAIN BAND AND BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SO FAR
WITH PRECIP BAND...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING MOISTURE INVOLVED
IN BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS BAND APPROACHES
KFSD AND KSUX. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT A SHARP
CLEARING SHOULD PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
CLEARING AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TAKES OVER LATE...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE KSUX OR KFSD TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221804
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
104 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE FRONT LOCATED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH LIGHT ECHOES PRETTY MUCH TIED TO THE BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM SOME
LIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MAINLY SEEING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
WITH BAND OF LOWER 4-6KFT CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EAST. HIGH-RES MODELS BEGIN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF OUT OF THESE
EASTERN CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT SHOULD BE LARGELY EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY THEN SO WILL START THE DAY OFF DRY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH BAND OF SHOWERS THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING...BRINGING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...
TOWARD THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 4 PM...AND INTO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 AFTER 6-7 PM. STEADIEST PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT
4-6 HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
AGAIN BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE EARLY SUNSHINE AND STOUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARM-UP PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND ONSET OF RAIN. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHS IS IN OUR
FAR WEST...WHERE EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/RAIN WILL PUT A
QUICK HALT TO ANY TEMPERATURE RISE...HOLDING READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S OR EVEN UPPER 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT SOME RECOVERY POSSIBLE
LATE IF SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNSET. FARTHER EAST...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS/RAIN. HAVE
TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING AS THE RAIN INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SHARPER DROP THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER-MID 40S...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS REMAINING WARMEST NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRYING SHOULD BE PRETTY COMPLETE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE ARE
LOOKING AT FOUR DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY AND WARM WEATHER AS
PLAINS RIDGING IS FLATTENED BY CANADIAN SHORT WAVE. NAM
SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE WITH WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
IT DEPICTS. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY...AND COULD
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER THAT DAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THEY PICK UP.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

BROAD TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR
BEGINNING TO COME IN MONDAY AND ESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY...THOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK TOO WINTRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF I 29
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH APPROACH OF
RAIN BAND AND BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SO FAR
WITH PRECIP BAND...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING MOISTURE INVOLVED
IN BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS BAND APPROACHES
KFSD AND KSUX. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT A SHARP
CLEARING SHOULD PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
CLEARING AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TAKES OVER LATE...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE KSUX OR KFSD TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221804
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
104 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE FRONT LOCATED WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH LIGHT ECHOES PRETTY MUCH TIED TO THE BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM SOME
LIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MAINLY SEEING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
WITH BAND OF LOWER 4-6KFT CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EAST. HIGH-RES MODELS BEGIN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF OUT OF THESE
EASTERN CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT SHOULD BE LARGELY EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY THEN SO WILL START THE DAY OFF DRY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH BAND OF SHOWERS THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING...BRINGING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...
TOWARD THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 4 PM...AND INTO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 AFTER 6-7 PM. STEADIEST PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT
4-6 HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
AGAIN BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE EARLY SUNSHINE AND STOUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARM-UP PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND ONSET OF RAIN. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHS IS IN OUR
FAR WEST...WHERE EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/RAIN WILL PUT A
QUICK HALT TO ANY TEMPERATURE RISE...HOLDING READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S OR EVEN UPPER 50S MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT SOME RECOVERY POSSIBLE
LATE IF SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNSET. FARTHER EAST...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS/RAIN. HAVE
TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING AS THE RAIN INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SHARPER DROP THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER-MID 40S...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS REMAINING WARMEST NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRYING SHOULD BE PRETTY COMPLETE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE ARE
LOOKING AT FOUR DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY AND WARM WEATHER AS
PLAINS RIDGING IS FLATTENED BY CANADIAN SHORT WAVE. NAM
SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE WITH WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
IT DEPICTS. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY...AND COULD
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER THAT DAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THEY PICK UP.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

BROAD TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR
BEGINNING TO COME IN MONDAY AND ESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY...THOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK TOO WINTRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF I 29
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH APPROACH OF
RAIN BAND AND BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SO FAR
WITH PRECIP BAND...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING MOISTURE INVOLVED
IN BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS BAND APPROACHES
KFSD AND KSUX. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT A SHARP
CLEARING SHOULD PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
CLEARING AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TAKES OVER LATE...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE KSUX OR KFSD TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





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