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000
FXUS63 KFSD 212337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY WARM AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
VERY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW
BRINGING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL. ALMOST MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. EXPECT THESE DEW POINTS TO SHOW
THEMSELVES MUCH MORE ONCE OUR DEEP MIXING ABATES AROUND SUNSET.
SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SOME LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FARTHER WEST THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BUT HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BACK EDGE OF RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF A KMML TO KFSD
TO KYKN LINE AT 00Z...WHICH WOULD BE A FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS
WITHOUT THE LATEST EDITION OF A SLOWING ECMWF. LARGER SCALES NOT
VERY DISSIMILAR...SO SIDING CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO WEST OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS.  THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO I 90 AND SOUTH EAST
OF THE KFSD AREA...WHERE RESIDUAL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED BY 06Z WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER BACK TOWARD SURFACE
FRONTAL LOCATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD FIND A STRONG CLEARING TREND
AND WITH WEAK COOLER PUSH AND DECREASING GRADIENT...HAVE NUDGED
LOWS A BIT LOWER IN MORE DECOUPLED WESTERN ZONES.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...RIDGE WILL
REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PULSE PEAKING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE DAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND DECENT MIXING...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 70S...IF NOT APPROACHING 80 IN LOWER BRULE
LOCATIONS. A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH COULD IMPACT WARMING ALONG WITH PERIOD OF WEAKER FLOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. LARGER DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY HEADING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PARKING ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MIXING NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH
MORE STABLE PROFILE AND MORE GENEROUS EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOWER
LEVEL WINDS...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHEAST...TO LOWER 70S
MISSOURI VALLEY.

RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY WITH
STRONG JET PUNCHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY
FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUGGESTED
TO EVOLVE WITH TRAILING SOUTHERN TROUGH ENERGY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...SO NO PROBLEM MAINTAINING LOWER END CHANCE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF QG FORCING STRADDLING THE
00Z PERIOD...WAS HESITANT TO DROP CHANCES OFF TOO EARLY.

POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR A VERY WARM PREFRONTAL DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL PERHAPS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGE BY CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SETTLE BACK TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEAL WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A BAND OF
MID-LVL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALREADY AN AC FIELD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT 6PM...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING
MVFR STRATUS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A BIT OF DRIZZLE SCATTERED IN THE LOW
CEILING THROUGH MID- MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHRA/RA
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID-THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212055
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY WARM AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
VERY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW
BRINGING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL. ALMOST MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. EXPECT THESE DEW POINTS TO SHOW
THEMSELVES MUCH MORE ONCE OUR DEEP MIXING ABATES AROUND SUNSET.
SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SOME LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FARTHER WEST THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS/SHOWERS BUT HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BACK EDGE OF RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF A KMML TO KFSD
TO KYKN LINE AT 00Z...WHICH WOULD BE A FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS
WITHOUT THE LATEST EDITION OF A SLOWING ECMWF. LARGER SCALES NOT
VERY DISSIMILAR...SO SIDING CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO WEST OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS.  THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO I 90 AND SOUTH EAST
OF THE KFSD AREA...WHERE RESIDUAL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED BY 06Z WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER BACK TOWARD SURFACE
FRONTAL LOCATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD FIND A STRONG CLEARING TREND
AND WITH WEAK COOLER PUSH AND DECREASING GRADIENT...HAVE NUDGED
LOWS A BIT LOWER IN MORE DECOUPLED WESTERN ZONES.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...RIDGE WILL
REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PULSE PEAKING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE DAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND DECENT MIXING...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM...WELL INTO THE 70S...IF NOT APPROACHING 80 IN LOWER BRULE
LOCATIONS. A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH COULD IMPACT WARMING ALONG WITH PERIOD OF WEAKER FLOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. LARGER DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY HEADING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PARKING ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MIXING NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH
MORE STABLE PROFILE AND MORE GENEROUS EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOWER
LEVEL WINDS...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHEAST...TO LOWER 70S
MISSOURI VALLEY.

RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY WITH
STRONG JET PUNCHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY
FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUGGESTED
TO EVOLVE WITH TRAILING SOUTHERN TROUGH ENERGY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...SO NO PROBLEM MAINTAINING LOWER END CHANCE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF QG FORCING STRADDLING THE
00Z PERIOD...WAS HESITANT TO DROP CHANCES OFF TOO EARLY.

POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR A VERY WARM PREFRONTAL DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL PERHAPS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGE BY CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SETTLE BACK TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z THIS EVENING THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SURGE NORTH AND LIKELY BRING
LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS...GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SPOTTY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AT KHON AFTER 15Z. KFSD AND KSUX WILL SEE THE BAND OF RAINFALL
AFTER THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211730
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
BRING WINDS UP TO BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THIS IS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE GOING FOR A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHICH FITS
WITH THE SMALLER STABLE LAYER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.

THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH FIRE DANGER NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW AND VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE NEAR CALM AREA IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NO GENERAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

STILL PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AT THE START OF TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH...SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD BECOMING SOLID AND WILL GO WITH SKY COVER FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AS THE AIR BECOMES
SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE A LIFTING MECHANISM IS
QUESTIONABLE...FEEL VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM IN THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS COMES OUT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH
THUNDER DUE TO THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
STARTS TO GET INTO MN AND IA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR IN RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE.

A DECENT BREEZE WILL KEEP UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL ON TRACK FOR BAND OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS ON MAIN WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NAM STILL LAGGING A BIT
SLOWER THAN GLOBAL MODELS...BUT GENERALLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONG MODELS...TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THUS OPTED TO CAP POPS IN
HIGH LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE BUMPED UP INTO
CATEGORICAL RANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...HAVE COOLED HIGHS WEST OF THE
JAMES A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THERE LIKELY BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL COOLING PUSHES IN.

FASTER TIMING ALSO MEANS PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLEARING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE...WITH GOOD MIXING IN WESTERLY FLOW
HELPING LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. 21/00Z ECMWF DRAGS
AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MN THAN GFS/GEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW
GREATER CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MN...
WITH LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

GREATER DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF
SLOWER AND WARMER...WHILE GFS/GEM FASTER IN BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GIVEN CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID BUMP EASTERN
AREAS UP A BIT AS WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE FASTER MODEL TIMING PANS
OUT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW. INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z THIS EVENING THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SURGE NORTH AND LIKELY BRING
LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS...GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SPOTTY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AT KHON AFTER 15Z. KFSD AND KSUX WILL SEE THE BAND OF RAINFALL
AFTER THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
BRING WINDS UP TO BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THIS IS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE GOING FOR A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHICH FITS
WITH THE SMALLER STABLE LAYER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.

THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH FIRE DANGER NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW AND VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE NEAR CALM AREA IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NO GENERAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

STILL PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AT THE START OF TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH...SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD BECOMING SOLID AND WILL GO WITH SKY COVER FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AS THE AIR BECOMES
SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE A LIFTING MECHANISM IS
QUESTIONABLE...FEEL VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM IN THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS COMES OUT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH
THUNDER DUE TO THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
STARTS TO GET INTO MN AND IA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR IN RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE.

A DECENT BREEZE WILL KEEP UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL ON TRACK FOR BAND OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS ON MAIN WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NAM STILL LAGGING A BIT
SLOWER THAN GLOBAL MODELS...BUT GENERALLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONG MODELS...TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THUS OPTED TO CAP POPS IN
HIGH LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE BUMPED UP INTO
CATEGORICAL RANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...HAVE COOLED HIGHS WEST OF THE
JAMES A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THERE LIKELY BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL COOLING PUSHES IN.

FASTER TIMING ALSO MEANS PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLEARING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE...WITH GOOD MIXING IN WESTERLY FLOW
HELPING LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. 21/00Z ECMWF DRAGS
AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MN THAN GFS/GEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW
GREATER CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MN...
WITH LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

GREATER DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF
SLOWER AND WARMER...WHILE GFS/GEM FASTER IN BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GIVEN CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID BUMP EASTERN
AREAS UP A BIT AS WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE FASTER MODEL TIMING PANS
OUT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW. INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR THROUGH 22/05Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING HON. FROM 22/05Z TO
22/12Z CEILINGS 2-3K FEET INCREASING FROM THE SW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
BRING WINDS UP TO BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THIS IS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE GOING FOR A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHICH FITS
WITH THE SMALLER STABLE LAYER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.

THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH FIRE DANGER NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW AND VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE NEAR CALM AREA IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NO GENERAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

STILL PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AT THE START OF TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH...SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD BECOMING SOLID AND WILL GO WITH SKY COVER FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AS THE AIR BECOMES
SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE A LIFTING MECHANISM IS
QUESTIONABLE...FEEL VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM IN THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS COMES OUT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH
THUNDER DUE TO THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
STARTS TO GET INTO MN AND IA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR IN RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE.

A DECENT BREEZE WILL KEEP UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL ON TRACK FOR BAND OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS ON MAIN WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NAM STILL LAGGING A BIT
SLOWER THAN GLOBAL MODELS...BUT GENERALLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONG MODELS...TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THUS OPTED TO CAP POPS IN
HIGH LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE BUMPED UP INTO
CATEGORICAL RANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...HAVE COOLED HIGHS WEST OF THE
JAMES A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THERE LIKELY BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL COOLING PUSHES IN.

FASTER TIMING ALSO MEANS PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLEARING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE...WITH GOOD MIXING IN WESTERLY FLOW
HELPING LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. 21/00Z ECMWF DRAGS
AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MN THAN GFS/GEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW
GREATER CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MN...
WITH LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

GREATER DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF
SLOWER AND WARMER...WHILE GFS/GEM FASTER IN BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GIVEN CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID BUMP EASTERN
AREAS UP A BIT AS WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE FASTER MODEL TIMING PANS
OUT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW. INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR THROUGH 22/05Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING HON. FROM 22/05Z TO
22/12Z CEILINGS 2-3K FEET INCREASING FROM THE SW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
BRING WINDS UP TO BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THIS IS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE GOING FOR A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHICH FITS
WITH THE SMALLER STABLE LAYER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.

THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH FIRE DANGER NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW AND VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE NEAR CALM AREA IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NO GENERAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

STILL PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AT THE START OF TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH...SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD BECOMING SOLID AND WILL GO WITH SKY COVER FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AS THE AIR BECOMES
SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE A LIFTING MECHANISM IS
QUESTIONABLE...FEEL VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM IN THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS COMES OUT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH
THUNDER DUE TO THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
STARTS TO GET INTO MN AND IA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR IN RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE.

A DECENT BREEZE WILL KEEP UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL ON TRACK FOR BAND OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS ON MAIN WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NAM STILL LAGGING A BIT
SLOWER THAN GLOBAL MODELS...BUT GENERALLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONG MODELS...TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THUS OPTED TO CAP POPS IN
HIGH LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE BUMPED UP INTO
CATEGORICAL RANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...HAVE COOLED HIGHS WEST OF THE
JAMES A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THERE LIKELY BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL COOLING PUSHES IN.

FASTER TIMING ALSO MEANS PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLEARING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE...WITH GOOD MIXING IN WESTERLY FLOW
HELPING LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. 21/00Z ECMWF DRAGS
AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MN THAN GFS/GEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW
GREATER CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MN...
WITH LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

GREATER DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF
SLOWER AND WARMER...WHILE GFS/GEM FASTER IN BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GIVEN CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID BUMP EASTERN
AREAS UP A BIT AS WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE FASTER MODEL TIMING PANS
OUT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW. INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR THROUGH 22/05Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING HON. FROM 22/05Z TO
22/12Z CEILINGS 2-3K FEET INCREASING FROM THE SW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210902
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY
BRING WINDS UP TO BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THIS IS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE GOING FOR A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHICH FITS
WITH THE SMALLER STABLE LAYER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.

THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGH FIRE DANGER NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION FOG FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW AND VERY PATCHY FOG IN THE NEAR CALM AREA IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NO GENERAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

STILL PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AT THE START OF TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH...SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD BECOMING SOLID AND WILL GO WITH SKY COVER FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AS THE AIR BECOMES
SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE LATER TONIGHT. WHILE A LIFTING MECHANISM IS
QUESTIONABLE...FEEL VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD EASILY FORM IN THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS COMES OUT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH
THUNDER DUE TO THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
STARTS TO GET INTO MN AND IA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIR SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR IN RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE.

A DECENT BREEZE WILL KEEP UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S EAST TO THE 50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL ON TRACK FOR BAND OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS ON MAIN WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NAM STILL LAGGING A BIT
SLOWER THAN GLOBAL MODELS...BUT GENERALLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONG MODELS...TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THUS OPTED TO CAP POPS IN
HIGH LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE BUMPED UP INTO
CATEGORICAL RANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...AND WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...HAVE COOLED HIGHS WEST OF THE
JAMES A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THERE LIKELY BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL COOLING PUSHES IN.

FASTER TIMING ALSO MEANS PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLEARING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONGER RANGE...WITH GOOD MIXING IN WESTERLY FLOW
HELPING LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. 21/00Z ECMWF DRAGS
AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MN THAN GFS/GEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN POSSIBLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW
GREATER CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST MN...
WITH LOWER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

GREATER DISCREPANCY IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF
SLOWER AND WARMER...WHILE GFS/GEM FASTER IN BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GIVEN CONSENSUS...THOUGH DID BUMP EASTERN
AREAS UP A BIT AS WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE FASTER MODEL TIMING PANS
OUT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/STRENGTH...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW. INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COUPLE
OF CONCERNS. FIRST OF ALL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS OR A LITTLE STRONG ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CATEGORY WISE...KSUX IS ALREADY
EXHIBITING A VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION. THEREFORE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS FOR THAT TAF SITE.
DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TOO MUCH OF THIS POSSIBILITY YET...AND
ONLY MENTIONED A TEMPO MVFR AS A HEADS UP THAT SHALLOW RIVER FOG
COULD DEVELOP. MUCH LATER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE STREAMING UP LATE TUESDAY EVENING JUST BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO BE BASED BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WILL LIKELY NOT TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210407
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1107 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL
ISSUES FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. COUPLE THIS WITH FAIRLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND A VERY HIGHS FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN CENTRAL SD. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID
70S IN CENTRAL SD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF NW
IA WHERE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT MAY SEE LARGELY LEVEL TO SLOWLY FALLING READINGS
AFTER QUICKER INITIAL FALL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AND
GRADIENT INCREASING EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QG FORCING
AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CWA
LATE NIGHT. INITIAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AS FIRST PULSE OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY THAT START OF THE DAY WILL NOT BRING MORE THAN THICKENING
MID CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS MAIN BELT OF DEEPER
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT INTO THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE QUICKER
PROGRESSION ON ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS. DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COVERAGE
OF PRECIP...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN PLACES MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I 29...AS WELL AS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL
CWA...TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR WEST.

QUICKER EXIT MEANS PRACTICALLY NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY...AND ONLY CARRIED A 20 POP EARLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST.
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH LOWER LEVEL
WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH NAM FAILING TO SHIFT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE A DECENT PERIOD OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. RAW MIXED LAYER DEW
POINT TEMPS ARE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER...AND WOULD SEEM
TO BE A BIT PREFERRED IN THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 29.
A BIT WARMER AGAIN AS A RESULT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...LARGELY A QUIET TIME...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDOW. FRIDAY BECOMES
A PRE FRONTAL DAY WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY MIXED
COMPONENT TO WIND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES UPWARD ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S SHARED BY ALL. WHILE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE DRY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
COOL THINGS OFF JUST A TOUCH. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO
START...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN CWA...WILL FAVOR QUITE LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES...AND HAVE STRETCHED OUT A BIT OVER INITIALIZATION
VALUES. POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SOME IMPACT OF THE
HAWAIIAN TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WESTERN FLOW INTO
THE VICINITY. STRUCTURE OF TROUGHING IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SO IDEA OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FITS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS COOLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COUPLE
OF CONCERNS. FIRST OF ALL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS OR A LITTLE STRONG ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CATEGORY WISE...KSUX IS ALREADY
EXHIBITING A VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION. THEREFORE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS FOR THAT TAF SITE.
DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TOO MUCH OF THIS POSSIBILITY YET...AND
ONLY MENTIONED A TEMPO MVFR AS A HEADS UP THAT SHALLOW RIVER FOG
COULD DEVELOP. MUCH LATER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE STREAMING UP LATE TUESDAY EVENING JUST BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO BE BASED BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WILL LIKELY NOT TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210407
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1107 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL
ISSUES FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. COUPLE THIS WITH FAIRLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND A VERY HIGHS FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN CENTRAL SD. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID
70S IN CENTRAL SD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF NW
IA WHERE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT MAY SEE LARGELY LEVEL TO SLOWLY FALLING READINGS
AFTER QUICKER INITIAL FALL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AND
GRADIENT INCREASING EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QG FORCING
AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CWA
LATE NIGHT. INITIAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AS FIRST PULSE OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY THAT START OF THE DAY WILL NOT BRING MORE THAN THICKENING
MID CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS MAIN BELT OF DEEPER
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT INTO THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE QUICKER
PROGRESSION ON ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS. DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COVERAGE
OF PRECIP...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN PLACES MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I 29...AS WELL AS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL
CWA...TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR WEST.

QUICKER EXIT MEANS PRACTICALLY NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY...AND ONLY CARRIED A 20 POP EARLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST.
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH LOWER LEVEL
WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH NAM FAILING TO SHIFT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE A DECENT PERIOD OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. RAW MIXED LAYER DEW
POINT TEMPS ARE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER...AND WOULD SEEM
TO BE A BIT PREFERRED IN THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 29.
A BIT WARMER AGAIN AS A RESULT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...LARGELY A QUIET TIME...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDOW. FRIDAY BECOMES
A PRE FRONTAL DAY WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY MIXED
COMPONENT TO WIND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES UPWARD ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S SHARED BY ALL. WHILE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE DRY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
COOL THINGS OFF JUST A TOUCH. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO
START...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN CWA...WILL FAVOR QUITE LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES...AND HAVE STRETCHED OUT A BIT OVER INITIALIZATION
VALUES. POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SOME IMPACT OF THE
HAWAIIAN TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WESTERN FLOW INTO
THE VICINITY. STRUCTURE OF TROUGHING IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SO IDEA OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FITS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS COOLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COUPLE
OF CONCERNS. FIRST OF ALL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS OR A LITTLE STRONG ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CATEGORY WISE...KSUX IS ALREADY
EXHIBITING A VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION. THEREFORE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS FOR THAT TAF SITE.
DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TOO MUCH OF THIS POSSIBILITY YET...AND
ONLY MENTIONED A TEMPO MVFR AS A HEADS UP THAT SHALLOW RIVER FOG
COULD DEVELOP. MUCH LATER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE STREAMING UP LATE TUESDAY EVENING JUST BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO BE BASED BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WILL LIKELY NOT TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210035
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
735 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL
ISSUES FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. COUPLE THIS WITH FAIRLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND A VERY HIGHS FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN CENTRAL SD. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID
70S IN CENTRAL SD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF NW
IA WHERE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT MAY SEE LARGELY LEVEL TO SLOWLY FALLING READINGS
AFTER QUICKER INITIAL FALL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AND
GRADIENT INCREASING EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QG FORCING
AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CWA
LATE NIGHT. INITIAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AS FIRST PULSE OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY THAT START OF THE DAY WILL NOT BRING MORE THAN THICKENING
MID CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS MAIN BELT OF DEEPER
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT INTO THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE QUICKER
PROGRESSION ON ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS. DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COVERAGE
OF PRECIP...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN PLACES MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I 29...AS WELL AS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL
CWA...TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR WEST.

QUICKER EXIT MEANS PRACTICALLY NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY...AND ONLY CARRIED A 20 POP EARLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST.
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH LOWER LEVEL
WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH NAM FAILING TO SHIFT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE A DECENT PERIOD OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. RAW MIXED LAYER DEW
POINT TEMPS ARE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER...AND WOULD SEEM
TO BE A BIT PREFERRED IN THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 29.
A BIT WARMER AGAIN AS A RESULT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...LARGELY A QUIET TIME...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDOW. FRIDAY BECOMES
A PRE FRONTAL DAY WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY MIXED
COMPONENT TO WIND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES UPWARD ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S SHARED BY ALL. WHILE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE DRY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
COOL THINGS OFF JUST A TOUCH. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO
START...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN CWA...WILL FAVOR QUITE LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES...AND HAVE STRETCHED OUT A BIT OVER INITIALIZATION
VALUES. POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SOME IMPACT OF THE
HAWAIIAN TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WESTERN FLOW INTO
THE VICINITY. STRUCTURE OF TROUGHING IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SO IDEA OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FITS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS COOLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TONIGHT IS THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR DUST DUE TO HARVESTING
GENERALLY EAST OF I 29. TIS THE SEASON. WILL JUST MONITOR THE KFSD
AND KSUX TAF SITES IF ANY OF THIS DRAINS INTO THOSE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210035
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
735 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL
ISSUES FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. COUPLE THIS WITH FAIRLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND A VERY HIGHS FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN CENTRAL SD. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID
70S IN CENTRAL SD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF NW
IA WHERE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT MAY SEE LARGELY LEVEL TO SLOWLY FALLING READINGS
AFTER QUICKER INITIAL FALL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AND
GRADIENT INCREASING EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QG FORCING
AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CWA
LATE NIGHT. INITIAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AS FIRST PULSE OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY THAT START OF THE DAY WILL NOT BRING MORE THAN THICKENING
MID CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS MAIN BELT OF DEEPER
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT INTO THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE QUICKER
PROGRESSION ON ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS. DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COVERAGE
OF PRECIP...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN PLACES MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I 29...AS WELL AS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL
CWA...TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR WEST.

QUICKER EXIT MEANS PRACTICALLY NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY...AND ONLY CARRIED A 20 POP EARLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST.
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH LOWER LEVEL
WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH NAM FAILING TO SHIFT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE A DECENT PERIOD OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. RAW MIXED LAYER DEW
POINT TEMPS ARE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER...AND WOULD SEEM
TO BE A BIT PREFERRED IN THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 29.
A BIT WARMER AGAIN AS A RESULT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...LARGELY A QUIET TIME...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDOW. FRIDAY BECOMES
A PRE FRONTAL DAY WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY MIXED
COMPONENT TO WIND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES UPWARD ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S SHARED BY ALL. WHILE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE DRY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
COOL THINGS OFF JUST A TOUCH. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO
START...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN CWA...WILL FAVOR QUITE LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES...AND HAVE STRETCHED OUT A BIT OVER INITIALIZATION
VALUES. POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SOME IMPACT OF THE
HAWAIIAN TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WESTERN FLOW INTO
THE VICINITY. STRUCTURE OF TROUGHING IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SO IDEA OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FITS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS COOLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TONIGHT IS THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR DUST DUE TO HARVESTING
GENERALLY EAST OF I 29. TIS THE SEASON. WILL JUST MONITOR THE KFSD
AND KSUX TAF SITES IF ANY OF THIS DRAINS INTO THOSE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL
ISSUES FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. COUPLE THIS WITH FAIRLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND A VERY HIGHS FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN CENTRAL SD. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN CWA TO THE MID
70S IN CENTRAL SD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF NW
IA WHERE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...BUT MAY SEE LARGELY LEVEL TO SLOWLY FALLING READINGS
AFTER QUICKER INITIAL FALL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AND
GRADIENT INCREASING EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QG FORCING
AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CWA
LATE NIGHT. INITIAL ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AS FIRST PULSE OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
LIKELY THAT START OF THE DAY WILL NOT BRING MORE THAN THICKENING
MID CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS MAIN BELT OF DEEPER
DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OUT INTO THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE QUICKER
PROGRESSION ON ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS. DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COVERAGE
OF PRECIP...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN PLACES MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I 29...AS WELL AS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL
CWA...TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR WEST.

QUICKER EXIT MEANS PRACTICALLY NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY...AND ONLY CARRIED A 20 POP EARLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST.
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH LOWER LEVEL
WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH NAM FAILING TO SHIFT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE A DECENT PERIOD OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. RAW MIXED LAYER DEW
POINT TEMPS ARE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER...AND WOULD SEEM
TO BE A BIT PREFERRED IN THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I 29.
A BIT WARMER AGAIN AS A RESULT WITH MORE SUNSHINE...MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...LARGELY A QUIET TIME...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDOW. FRIDAY BECOMES
A PRE FRONTAL DAY WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY MIXED
COMPONENT TO WIND. HAVE PUSHED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES UPWARD ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S SHARED BY ALL. WHILE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE DRY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
COOL THINGS OFF JUST A TOUCH. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO
START...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN CWA...WILL FAVOR QUITE LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES...AND HAVE STRETCHED OUT A BIT OVER INITIALIZATION
VALUES. POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SOME IMPACT OF THE
HAWAIIAN TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WESTERN FLOW INTO
THE VICINITY. STRUCTURE OF TROUGHING IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SO IDEA OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FITS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS COOLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER BEFORE 18Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201759
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201759
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 201109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 201109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200842
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 200348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 192321
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 192012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 191706
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR DETECTED
WIND VELOCITY INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 40 OR 45 KT AT AROUND 1200 TO 2000 FT AGL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 191101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR DETECTED
WIND VELOCITY INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 40 OR 45 KT AT AROUND 1200 TO 2000 FT AGL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190833
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190833
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 190404
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




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