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000
FXUS63 KFSD 281751
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO HAVE MVFR
STRATUS...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 03Z -15ZISH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281751
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO HAVE MVFR
STRATUS...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 03Z -15ZISH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 281150
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
550 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE TRACKING ALONG OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND MUCH
FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL TRACK
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND USHER IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
IT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30+ KT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 281150
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
550 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE TRACKING ALONG OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND MUCH
FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL TRACK
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND USHER IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
IT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30+ KT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 280441
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER
WITH TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD
SOLN...KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY
PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS WITH THE GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 280441
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER
WITH TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD
SOLN...KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY
PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS WITH THE GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272332
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER
WITH TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD
SOLN...KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY
PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS WITH THE GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND WESTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND ABOVE...THINK MVFR-LOCALLY IFR STRATUS MAY
SEE SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT INTO EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME EXPECT IT TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF KFSD TAF LOCATION.
THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MODELS POINTING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE COLDER
POST-FRONTAL AIR...BUT AT THIS TIME UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK...AND IF SO...HOW QUICKLY.
PRIMARY THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD IS WEST
OF I-29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY AFFECTING KHON. WILL CARRY SCT015-025
FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272332
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER
WITH TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD
SOLN...KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY
PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS WITH THE GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPAND WESTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND ABOVE...THINK MVFR-LOCALLY IFR STRATUS MAY
SEE SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT INTO EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME EXPECT IT TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF KFSD TAF LOCATION.
THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MODELS POINTING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE COLDER
POST-FRONTAL AIR...BUT AT THIS TIME UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK...AND IF SO...HOW QUICKLY.
PRIMARY THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD IS WEST
OF I-29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY AFFECTING KHON. WILL CARRY SCT015-025
FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 272031
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
231 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANCIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER WITH
TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD SOLN...KEEPING
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS
WITH THE GFS/GEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE AMENDED TAFS AT KFSD THIS MORNING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW LONG
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 272031
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
231 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.  STRATUS ALONG I-29
NORTH OF I-90 IS GRADUALLY ERODING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER
TIME TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE
STRATUS MORE CONTAINED TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE...BUT AM
BANKING AGAINST THAT AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE.  WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE FINAL WARM DAY AS 925 HPA TEMPS SURGE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
925 HPA WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE.  MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE 900:800 MB LAYER...SO
WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WITH
WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TIME FRAME AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL WIN OUT...PUSHING AN ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA COLD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN
THIS IS A TIMING ISSUE...SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL DIFFERENCES PREVENT ANY SUBSTANCIAL SHIFTS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN MUCH STRONGER WITH
TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD SOLN...KEEPING
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. GENERALLY PREFERENCE CURRENTLY IS
WITH THE GFS/GEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE AMENDED TAFS AT KFSD THIS MORNING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW LONG
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271645
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
STRATUS TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM SHOWS THE STRATUS THICKENING WHILE THE RAP SHOWS
THE STRATUS THINNING AS WINDS INCREASE. IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER DRIZZLE BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THAT
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE AMENDED TAFS AT KFSD THIS MORNING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW LONG
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-056-
     062-067.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-089-097-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001-002-
     012-013.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271645
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
STRATUS TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM SHOWS THE STRATUS THICKENING WHILE THE RAP SHOWS
THE STRATUS THINNING AS WINDS INCREASE. IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER DRIZZLE BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THAT
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE AMENDED TAFS AT KFSD THIS MORNING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW LONG
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-056-
     062-067.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-089-097-098.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001-002-
     012-013.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 271108
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBYS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 271108
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WILL HAVE AREAS OF LIFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBYS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270858
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/06Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-
15Z. FOG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270858
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY AREA OF STRATUS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SITUATED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LOCATED WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND. BOTH
THE RAP AND SREF ARE HANDLING THESE LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
WELL...AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA REMAINS FOG FREE THIS MORNING SO REMOVED MOST OF THE FOG
FROM THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS IT DOES
SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MIXING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...AND IN RESPONSE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
HOWEVER...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR IOWA ZONES...TO 50S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND IT
WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THAT...LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WEDNESDAY STILL TO BE THE FINAL VERY MILD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. MODELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SO NO REAL CHANGES. STILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS A WAVE PASSES BY BUT A BIT MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING.

BECOMING A BIT WINDY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WORK TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND WIND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY STILL A BIT BREEZY AND DEFINITELY COLDER. THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER THIS TIME AROUND WHICH IS
ALSO FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE COLDER PATTERN
SETTLES IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS TIME AROUND SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS THE LAST OF THE MILD DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS 925MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO ZERO. SATURDAY LIKELY POSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST ERROR IN FORECASTING AS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. A LITTLE FASTER AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...A LITTLE SLOWER AND HIGH WOULD BE IN THE 40S SO
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
HEDGE TOWARDS THIS FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD
AIR SURGES SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WELL INTO THE COLD AIR SO JUST
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/06Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-
15Z. FOG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 270430
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/06Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-
15Z. FOG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 270430
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/06Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-
15Z. FOG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/00Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-15Z.
IFR COULD DEVELOP IN THE FOG BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCAL|AND HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT TAF FORECASTS AT MVFR FOR NOW AS THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT OVER IFR AND CONTINUED VFR. WILL REVISIT THIS ON THE NEXT
SET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 262340
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 28/00Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG 27/09Z-15Z.
IFR COULD DEVELOP IN THE FOG BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCAL|AND HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT TAF FORECASTS AT MVFR FOR NOW AS THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT OVER IFR AND CONTINUED VFR. WILL REVISIT THIS ON THE NEXT
SET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WILL INTRODUCE AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z TO GIVE A HINT AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD FOG
FORM...IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN LOWER THAN MVFR LVLS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 262053
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 50S
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LIGHTEST SFC WINDS
REACHING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY DAYBREAK.  THE CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL.  DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
PEAK MIXING REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SHOULD FOG FORM...IT
MAY LIKELY DO SO NEAR THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A LIGHT EAST
CONVERGENT SFC WIND MAY HOLD FOG WEST OF I-29. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...COULD ENVISION A FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS ON POTENTIAL IMPACT OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE WARMEST AREA OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK SFC
WARM FRONT FORMS IN OR NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT DID NOT ADD PRECIP AS MUCH OF THE LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED IN DRY LAYER FROM 850-NEAR 500 MB.

NORTHWEST WINDS REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING WAVE.  925 HPA WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND HAVE
RAISED WINDS SOME OVER GUIDANCE.  COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE THE
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH....THOUGH MODELS DEBATING ON HOW MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  925 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -6C
IN THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.  WITH LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  GFS IS
EXTREMELY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  CONCENTRATED POPS MAINLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BROAD AND
WEAK...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT A FAVORED AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE TRENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT WITH THE DISCREPANCIES DID
NOT ALTER MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WILL INTRODUCE AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z TO GIVE A HINT AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD FOG
FORM...IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN LOWER THAN MVFR LVLS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1126 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WILL INTRODUCE AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z TO GIVE A HINT AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD FOG
FORM...IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN LOWER THAN MVFR LVLS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1126 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WILL INTRODUCE AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z TO GIVE A HINT AT THE POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD FOG
FORM...IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN LOWER THAN MVFR LVLS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 261105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING
CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 261105
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING
CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260857
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING CEILINGS 1-3K FEET IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
WILL DECREASE FROM 26/06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
27/06Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260857
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS KICKING OFF A FEW RADAR RETURNS THROUGH OUR
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT SEEING
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
ECHOES...DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PULL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DECENT MIXING IT WILL BE A
VERY MILD DAY. CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO STORM
LAKE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS PLAYS OUT TO LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY AS A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION STRENGTHENS A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNFAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DOES
NOT SUPPORT A WHILE LOT OF MIXING. SO WHILE A PRETTY WARM AIR MASS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY +10 TO +15
C...THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND POOR MIXING WILL ONLY GO SO FAR. STILL A
VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WITH A BETTER SUN ANGLE AND NO SNOW ON
THE GROUND IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS FULL MIXING TO 850MB WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND AIM FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS LOW PRESSURE SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THE AIR MASS SEEMS TOO DRY SO SOME POTENTIAL TO
WARM UP. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR SETTLES
IN SO TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...AROUND 40...BUT STILL KEPT
LOWER 50S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO NEED TO COME DOWN A BIT IF THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN
FASTER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL LOOKING AT A
COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN DIRECT THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION HELPING TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN COLDER AIR. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR POSSIBLY MONDAY SO REALLY STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...JUST NOT AS FAR ABOVE
AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING
THE COLDER AIR IN ON SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SWINGING THROUGH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF WARM AIR. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS WAVE AND THUS KEEPS US
BURIED IN THE COLDER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY TAKING THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INTO ACCOUNT...THE ENSEMBLE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL...AND THE MORE AMPLIFIED CANADIAN THIS FIRST SHOT OF
COLD AIR MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT AS IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL
GET BURIED IN THE COLD AIR. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER WPC/ECMWF
VALUES ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING CEILINGS 1-3K FEET IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
WILL DECREASE FROM 26/06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
27/06Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 260520
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING CEILINGS 1-3K FEET IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
WILL DECREASE FROM 26/06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
27/06Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 260520
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING CEILINGS 1-3K FEET IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
WILL DECREASE FROM 26/06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
27/06Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252336
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 26/00Z-08Z.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 27/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252336
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CEILINGS 1-3K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 26/00Z-08Z.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 27/00Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 252134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 252134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOW STRATUS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AIDING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...THEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND LATER TONIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES WITH THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT WEAK LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS MAY
EVEN PREVENT THAT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH ENHANCED MIXING WILL BE QUITE A WARM
ONE. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S AND 50S
LIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE EVEN END UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE INTERMEDIATE PERIODS ARE MARKED BY A FAIRLY BENIGN...BUT MILD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...AND IN THE MID
LEVELS A BAND OF CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS ABOUT A CATEGORY
AND BELOW GUIDANCE READINGS DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. TUESDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 50 TO 55 THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF AIR WILL BE A BIT
BRISK...SO TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE READINGS WHICH
WERE ONCE AGAIN ABOUT ANYTHING THAT HAS BEEN BIAS CORRECTED. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT STILL CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A MIXING NORTHWEST WIND.
THEREFORE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS HIGHS...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 TO 55 IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES...WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. THE LOW POPS ARE
DECEIVING IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIKELY THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL...BUT WILL IT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MEASURE MORE THAN A
TRACE. CONCERNING LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY A
LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WIND AND CLOUDS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FURTHER OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL MILD...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
WILL HAVE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LARGE DISCREPANCY THEN EXISTS
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CERTAIN IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE LOCKED ONTO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE COLD AIR
AFTER SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND CURRENT GFS QUICKLY SHUNT THE
ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD AND ARE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD BY WHAT WOULD BE DAY
8 MONDAY FEB 2ND. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TO A PRETTY
COLD SOLUTION NEXT SUNDAY AND FOLLOWING AFTERWARD. THEREFORE AT THIS
TIME USING A SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAY 7 SUNDAY IS PRUDENT UNTIL
THE SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE ECMWF HAS NOT SHOWN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER SATURDAY SO AM INCLINED
TO BELIEVE THAT THE COLD 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE MORE CORRECT AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CONJECTURE. THE ENSEMBLES OF COURSE HAVE
CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL SO THEY ARE NOT A LOT OF HELP AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD





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