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000
FXUS63 KFSD 231950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VORTICITY LOBE PRESENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND
LOWER NORTHWESTERN IOWA ZONES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 500 J/KG...SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. DO
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO FALL OFF IN OUR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVER THAT AREA INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG OVER THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE VORT LOBE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH THIS AND WARMING PROFILES IT WILL
BE A MUCH NICER DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE EAST TO AROUND 80
IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND...LIKELY BECOMING A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY. BOTH DAYS...FRIDAY
BEING A BIT WARMER...WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. FAR ENOUGH OUT THE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
SMALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A CHANCE THAT THE WAVE COULD WRAP UP TO THE
WEST AND PUSH NORTHWARD. BEYOND THIS SMALL CHANCE A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP ALMOST SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT THIS RIDGE LOOKS A BIT LIKE
THE ONE THAT SET UP CAMP FOR A MONTH OR SO BACK IN MARCH OF 2012. IF
THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLOWER TO EJECT OR EJECTS IN MORE OF A
NORTHWARD FASHION AROUND THE PERIFERY OF THE HUGE RIDGE WE COULD SEE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR NOW THE
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO BERAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VORTICITY LOBE PRESENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND
LOWER NORTHWESTERN IOWA ZONES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 500 J/KG...SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. DO
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO FALL OFF IN OUR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVER THAT AREA INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG OVER THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE VORT LOBE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH THIS AND WARMING PROFILES IT WILL
BE A MUCH NICER DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE EAST TO AROUND 80
IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND...LIKELY BECOMING A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY. BOTH DAYS...FRIDAY
BEING A BIT WARMER...WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. FAR ENOUGH OUT THE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
SMALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A CHANCE THAT THE WAVE COULD WRAP UP TO THE
WEST AND PUSH NORTHWARD. BEYOND THIS SMALL CHANCE A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP ALMOST SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT THIS RIDGE LOOKS A BIT LIKE
THE ONE THAT SET UP CAMP FOR A MONTH OR SO BACK IN MARCH OF 2012. IF
THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLOWER TO EJECT OR EJECTS IN MORE OF A
NORTHWARD FASHION AROUND THE PERIFERY OF THE HUGE RIDGE WE COULD SEE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR NOW THE
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO BERAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231715
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 231715
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS FORM
THIS MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS KHON HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL...BUT THINK SOME LOWER CIGS MAY MOVE INTO KFSD
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THINGS
SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS
WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SIGNS WE
COULD SEE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 231109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS FORM
THIS MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS KHON HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL...BUT THINK SOME LOWER CIGS MAY MOVE INTO KFSD
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THINGS
SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS
WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SIGNS WE
COULD SEE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230901
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS. HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO BE
MORE THAN TEMPORARY AT BEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN LATE AFTERNOON OR BEYOND AS COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230901
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS. HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO BE
MORE THAN TEMPORARY AT BEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN LATE AFTERNOON OR BEYOND AS COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230402
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1102 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT WAS JUST ELIMINATING THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. CHECKED THE LATEST
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FIELDS AND IT SHOWS INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS THIS FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...THE NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS NEAR THE GOODLAND KS AREA. OBVIOUSLY CANNOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWER BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE CHANCES
ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THOUGH WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERALL POP TREND OR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS. HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO BE
MORE THAN TEMPORARY AT BEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN LATE AFTERNOON OR BEYOND AS COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 230148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
848 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT WAS JUST ELIMINATING THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. CHECKED THE LATEST
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FIELDS AND IT SHOWS INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS THIS FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...THE NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS NEAR THE GOODLAND KS AREA. OBVIOUSLY CANNOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWER BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE CHANCES
ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THOUGH WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERALL POP TREND OR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
06Z...AND SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
704 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
06Z...AND SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 230004
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
704 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
06Z...AND SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 222014
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. SPOTTY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 222014
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. SPOTTY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
CIRRUS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THERE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THE BEST MIXING
TODAY...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO OVERALL
EXPECTING A PLEASANT MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. PRETTY GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS
THINKING WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES
WITH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 TO 800 MB...THUS SHOULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AROUND OR OVER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
12Z...WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE GREATER. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL QPF AND SREF PROBABILITY SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FAIRLY SHARP RIDGING
HOLDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE WILL REMAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. VERY DRY
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
BAND...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF I29 IN THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS A
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...HOWEVER THE NEAR
ABSENCE OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY OF A WEAK NATURE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD...ONLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EASTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
WASHED OUT UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN CLEARING IN
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BRING FAR MILDER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN THE WEST...WHILE THE CLOUDY EAST WILL ONLY
REACH 70 OR SO.

MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. SCATTERED CLOUDS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY
DRY. ELSEWHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING ALONG RIVERS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE APPROACHING ALL THREE AROUND 12Z. WHERE IT
DOES RAIN TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 221110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
CIRRUS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THERE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THE BEST MIXING
TODAY...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO OVERALL
EXPECTING A PLEASANT MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. PRETTY GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS
THINKING WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES
WITH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 TO 800 MB...THUS SHOULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AROUND OR OVER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
12Z...WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE GREATER. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL QPF AND SREF PROBABILITY SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FAIRLY SHARP RIDGING
HOLDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE WILL REMAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. VERY DRY
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
BAND...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF I29 IN THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS A
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...HOWEVER THE NEAR
ABSENCE OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY OF A WEAK NATURE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD...ONLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EASTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
WASHED OUT UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN CLEARING IN
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BRING FAR MILDER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN THE WEST...WHILE THE CLOUDY EAST WILL ONLY
REACH 70 OR SO.

MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. SCATTERED CLOUDS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY
DRY. ELSEWHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING ALONG RIVERS WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE APPROACHING ALL THREE AROUND 12Z. WHERE IT
DOES RAIN TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
CIRRUS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THERE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THE BEST MIXING
TODAY...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO OVERALL
EXPECTING A PLEASANT MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. PRETTY GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS
THINKING WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES
WITH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 TO 800 MB...THUS SHOULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AROUND OR OVER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
12Z...WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE GREATER. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL QPF AND SREF PROBABILITY SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FAIRLY SHARP RIDGING
HOLDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE WILL REMAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. VERY DRY
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
BAND...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF I29 IN THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS A
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...HOWEVER THE NEAR
ABSENCE OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY OF A WEAK NATURE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD...ONLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EASTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
WASHED OUT UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN CLEARING IN
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BRING FAR MILDER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN THE WEST...WHILE THE CLOUDY EAST WILL ONLY
REACH 70 OR SO.

MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. SCATTERED CLOUDS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY
DRY. ELSEWHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 220841
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
CIRRUS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THERE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THE BEST MIXING
TODAY...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO OVERALL
EXPECTING A PLEASANT MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. PRETTY GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS
THINKING WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING...APPROACHING INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES
WITH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 TO 800 MB...THUS SHOULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AROUND OR OVER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
12Z...WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE GREATER. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL QPF AND SREF PROBABILITY SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FAIRLY SHARP RIDGING
HOLDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE WILL REMAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. VERY DRY
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
BAND...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF I29 IN THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS A
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...HOWEVER THE NEAR
ABSENCE OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY OF A WEAK NATURE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD...ONLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EASTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
WASHED OUT UNDER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN CLEARING IN
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BRING FAR MILDER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN THE WEST...WHILE THE CLOUDY EAST WILL ONLY
REACH 70 OR SO.

MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. SCATTERED CLOUDS
WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES...BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY
DRY. ELSEWHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 220429
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1129 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH FOR IS ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IA INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE KSUX TAF AS ANY FOG WILL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 212333
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH FOR IS ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IA INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE KSUX TAF AS ANY FOG WILL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 212011
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 22/18Z. A FEW BROKEN CEILINGS 3-4K FEET
SOUTHWEST MN TODAY UNTIL 23Z. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VERY SHALLOW FOG IN ISOLATED
LOW AREAS SUCH AS OVER WARMER WATER SOURCES....THEREFORE NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211729
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 22/18Z. A FEW BROKEN CEILINGS 3-4K FEET
SOUTHWEST MN TODAY UNTIL 23Z. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VERY SHALLOW FOG IN ISOLATED
LOW AREAS SUCH AS OVER WARMER WATER SOURCES....THEREFORE NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211708
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CU WILL
DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...





000
FXUS63 KFSD 211130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210905
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND
15 KT OR LESS. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...IT WILL OVERALL BE
QUITE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES LOW SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HOWEVER
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...READINGS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
TANK. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IT BECOMING BREEZY WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DECENT LIFT. SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO LACK PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
THOUGH...WITH MEAN LAYER RH VALUES NEVER GETTING TOO HIGH. SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PROBABLY TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY MEAGER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS WHEN WE MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. SO WHILE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT..CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TUESDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. NOW LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT THINGS STAY MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND FORCING PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. DID BUMP HIGHS UP SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH LOW TO MID
70S LIKELY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LIKELY. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP THESE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE GET
CLOSER. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ONE CAVEAT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY
END UP PRETTY BREEZY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 210424
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KFSD 210424
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WIND SHIFT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. AT THAT POINT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE BY
THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT GETS TO KSUX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE
KSUX TAF SITE MAY ESCAPE THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ





000
FXUS63 KFSD 202331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 140+ KNOT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURE QUICKLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AS THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST HI-RES DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TAIL END STORMS ON THE SWRN
FLANK OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR SETUP WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...AND EVEN A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS.  THE MAIN RISKS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AMBIENT FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...WOULD LEAN AGAINST A LARGE HAIL RISK.

ANY RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 7PM.
ANTICIPATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF RATHER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S AND BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING THE
SLOW APPROACH FROM THE SW OF CURRENT SOUTHERN CA TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HALF
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT TOO MUCH LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
TIMING PUTS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A VERY FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST SD...OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DECREASING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MARKED BY A LOW DIURNAL RANGE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE ABATING OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
WAVE. GFS THEN SHOWS A WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE CANADIAN JET AND
DIGGING AROUND REBUILDING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THE EC SHOWS A BROAD
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE USA WITH A
VERY WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN SO
WEAK...THIS WOULD TEND TO BRING IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH DRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN THE
GFS SHOWS WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...INCLUDING WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH
ITS STRONGER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WOULD WARM BACK FULLY INTO THE 70S WHILE LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WIND SHIFT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. AT THAT POINT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE BY
THE TIME THE WIND SHIFT GETS TO KSUX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THE
KSUX TAF SITE MAY ESCAPE THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ




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