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000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 181741
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY SEEING MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND VFR TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND EAST AND COVER THE
REGION BY LATER TODAY. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS THAT GO IFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS MVFR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ROUTES WILL BE BRUSHED BY SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE -SN WITH ENOUGH LIFT AROUND THE AREA. BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
SUN ANGLER AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFCANT MIXING DURING THE PERIOD.
CIGS WILL BECOM IFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN BUT WILL REMAIN IFR OR
LOW MVFR DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 181126
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ROUTES WILL BE BRUSHED BY SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE -SN WITH ENOUGH LIFT AROUND THE AREA. BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
SUN ANGLER AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFCANT MIXING DURING THE PERIOD.
CIGS WILL BECOM IFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN BUT WILL REMAIN IFR OR
LOW MVFR DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180915
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.  SYSTEM TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CWA
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF 20 POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
RIGHT NOW I FEEL WE WILL MAINLY SEE CLOUDS AS MODELS SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS BUT NEVER GET MUCH LOWER SO AS EARLIER SHIFT
MENTIONED...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE.  CONTINUE TO BELIEVE AS WELL THAT PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW VERSUS DRIZZLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.  RIGHT NOW...I WOULD NOT SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH
OF THE CWA EAST OF MITCHELL TO BE STRATUSED IN FOR PERIOD OF TIME AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.  LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK FLOW OR MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS TO SELF PERPETUATING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY 925 MB FLOW STREAMING INTO THE REGION
UNDER WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO...MORESO IN OUR
EAST...FOR BOTH DAYS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE WITH
THESE CLOUDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIFT WEAK SO
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DID INTRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LIFT IS ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE A THREAT. BY EARLY ON SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID
OF SOME OF THE STRATUS AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GO FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE TEENS AND 20S
WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE EAST WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST PER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS OFFERS A COOLER SOLUTION...THOUGH
BOTH MODELS HAVE PLUS 0 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST...SO INCLUDED A THREAT OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THERMAL PROFILES
COOLING...SO IT SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD MAINLY COME DOWN
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. WITH CURRENT EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON MONDAY INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WORDING
IN THE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THAT POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY WITH EVEN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HEITKAMP





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180553
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW SPREAD IN SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD A LITTLE FURHTER NORTH. DONT EXPECT ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT CEILINGS COULD GO IFR WITH THE -SN AND THEN
STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEITKAMP





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180449
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL BE MONITORING WARM ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS BRINGING ENOUGH
SATURATION TO DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90.
FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NORTHWARD INTO HURON BY LATE MORNING.

CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TIMING. ONCE LOWER STRATUS MOVES...CEILINGS
COULD DROP SUB 1K FT AGL AND STAY THAT WAY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RECOVERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO BRING CEILINGS OUT OF MVFR LVLS ATTM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 180449
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL BE MONITORING WARM ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS BRINGING ENOUGH
SATURATION TO DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90.
FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NORTHWARD INTO HURON BY LATE MORNING.

CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TIMING. ONCE LOWER STRATUS MOVES...CEILINGS
COULD DROP SUB 1K FT AGL AND STAY THAT WAY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME RECOVERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO BRING CEILINGS OUT OF MVFR LVLS ATTM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180213
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
813 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS
STRATUS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THIS STRATUS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.

CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIGHT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SIOUX CITY. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF...BUT
MAY HINT AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LATER TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 180213
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
813 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH COOL PROFILE...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM
SIOUX CITY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS
STRATUS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THIS STRATUS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.

CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIGHT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SIOUX CITY. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF...BUT
MAY HINT AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LATER TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 172305
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS
STRATUS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THIS STRATUS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.

CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIGHT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SIOUX CITY. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF...BUT
MAY HINT AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 172305
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
505 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS
STRATUS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THIS STRATUS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.

CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH IFR CEILINGS MOVING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIGHT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SIOUX CITY. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF...BUT
MAY HINT AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 172117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH IFR AND
MVFR CIGS LINGERING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING MOST LOCATIONS STAY
VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STRATUS DECK OUT WEST...AS IT COULD
TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AND POTENTIALLY EXPAND LATER TONIGHT. THUS
DECIDED TO MOVE MVFR CIGS BACK INTO KHON TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND NOT OF MUCH USE WITH THIS LOWER
STRATUS. SO WILL MAINLY BE A WATCH AND SEE WITH REGARD TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 172117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS...PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES...THUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
TIMING. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA TO SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO IS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LAST TO ARRIVE. IN OTHER AREAS WOULD EXPECT A FALL THIS
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER CLOUDS ARRIVE. UPPER
WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS BECOME PRETTY SATURATED AS THE
WAVE CROSSES. ALTHOUGH WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY LAYER. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER THIS CAN BE OVERCOME AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AS THIS
IS WHERE SATURATION AND LIFT LOOKS GREATEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT SATURATION INTO THE ICE GROWTH REGION
AND RESULTING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST
INITIALLY WE ARE SATURATED DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES...WITH
THE MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
FEEL LIKE WE WILL NOT BE QUITE SATURATED ENOUGH...AND LIFT WILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH...TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 20S TO AROUND
30 EXPECTED...BUT SNOW COVER AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE MID RANGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LAYER.
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. WHILE SOME DECEASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
BLANKETED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. AGAIN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARDS
OVERCAST SKIES ELSEWHERE. WITHOUT MUCH LIFT OR FORCING...MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS MARGINAL FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL SEEN IN THE NAM. THE GFS IS A BIT TOO SHALLOW WITH
THIS LAYER SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. IF DRIZZLE WERE TO
DEVELOP...MUCH OF IT WOULD FALL IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP MONITORING IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RAMPS
UP. THE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BEGINNING WITH SOME MODEST LIFT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TRICKY
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LARGE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...WHICH
PLACES SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN
MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WARMER PROFILES COULD SPELL RAIN OR
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHEST
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STARTING TO FALL IN BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE...BUT
DOES EVENTUALLY DEEPEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ECMWF SLOW THE UPPER LOW AND DEEPENS IT OVER OUR EASTERN HALF
BEFORE IT SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SWITCH
OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS
EAST. THE ECMWF PAINTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LESS SEEN ON THE
GFS AND MUCH LESS AT THE TAIL END OF THE GEM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE AND
PLENTY OF WIND TO GO ALONG WITH IT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH IFR AND
MVFR CIGS LINGERING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING MOST LOCATIONS STAY
VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STRATUS DECK OUT WEST...AS IT COULD
TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AND POTENTIALLY EXPAND LATER TONIGHT. THUS
DECIDED TO MOVE MVFR CIGS BACK INTO KHON TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND NOT OF MUCH USE WITH THIS LOWER
STRATUS. SO WILL MAINLY BE A WATCH AND SEE WITH REGARD TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 171751
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1151 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY...DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING WITH THE WEAK FLOW.  AND WITH THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...I DECIDED TO GO FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS EXIST CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME... I FEEL MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO
EXPECT CLOUD DESK TO BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.  AND HALF TEMPTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO THAT CLOUD COVER.  BUT DECIDED TO SLOW THE
FALL MORE AT THIS TIME AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
CONTINUED WITH THE WEAK 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RAPID FIRE SYSTEMS IN ZONAL FLOW ARE LATITUDINALLY DISJOINTED THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE...MAKING PROSPECT FOR LOCATING ANY MEAGER PRECIP
THREAT QUITE SKETCHY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD FAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT CERTAINLY IS A NON ZERO THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  FIRST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MAINLY A WEAK FOCUS
OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK AT THAT.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO INVOLVE SOME ICE PROCESSES IN CLOUDS...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING TO LOSE ICE GENERATION
TEMPS DURING THE MIDDAY...EFFICIENCY FOR FLURRIES SEEMS LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE.  BEST DYNAMICS IN THE SHORTER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRESENT
AROUND WAVE WHICH MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DISTINCT PV FEATURE DIGGING PAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS
ALMOST NO THERMAL STRUCTURE AROUND TO FOCUS ANY LIFT...AND CERTAINLY
WARM ENOUGH WITH LAYER OF DRYING OFF SURFACE TO SUGGEST LACK OF
MEASURABLE THREAT.

DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND...WILL EBB AND FLOW IN BOTH DEPTH AND LOCATION AS FLOW
ALOFT IS INDUCED INTO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. THIS TIME
AROUND...INVERSION NOT QUITE AS FORMIDABLE...AND SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER FOR SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST/WEST SWINGS IN CLOUD LOCATION
AS WAVES MOVE PAST. MOST FLOW CHANGE IMPACT LOOKS TO OCCUR ALOFT...
WITH A PRETTY STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SURFACE WIND
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FORCING FOR THIS LAYER WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR...THAN TO
OCCUR. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WITH ANY SHALLOW PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WOULD BE ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHOW LESS
DIURNAL VARIABILITY OVERALL...AS CLOUDS...MILDER AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPER SNOW
COVER TO THE WEST ALONG WITH PROSPECT FOR BRIEF CLEARING PERIODS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LARGER RANGES IN THE WEST. HIGHS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TEENS
WESTERN SNOWCOVERED AREAS TO MAINLY 20S EAST...BUT VERY EASILY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT IN THE
EAST.

FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO PLACE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION WHICH HAS WAVE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUCH AS
THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE AS WELL...JUST 12-18 HOURS
LATER.  TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MOSTLY A LIQUID
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FORM IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF DIGGING SYSTEM...MAINLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWA...IF AT ALL. TEMPS AT SURFACE SUCH THAT MAY BE A BIT
OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERN...BUT PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
MAY BE A BIT COOL ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.  CLOSING OFF SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BULK COOLING AND MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK GENERALLY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EXIT OF SYSTEM SHOULD END WITH PRIMARILY A SNOW
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH IFR AND
MVFR CIGS LINGERING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING MOST LOCATIONS STAY
VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STRATUS DECK OUT WEST...AS IT COULD
TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AND POTENTIALLY EXPAND LATER TONIGHT. THUS
DECIDED TO MOVE MVFR CIGS BACK INTO KHON TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND NOT OF MUCH USE WITH THIS LOWER
STRATUS. SO WILL MAINLY BE A WATCH AND SEE WITH REGARD TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 171751
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1151 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY...DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING WITH THE WEAK FLOW.  AND WITH THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...I DECIDED TO GO FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS EXIST CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME... I FEEL MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO
EXPECT CLOUD DESK TO BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.  AND HALF TEMPTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO THAT CLOUD COVER.  BUT DECIDED TO SLOW THE
FALL MORE AT THIS TIME AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
CONTINUED WITH THE WEAK 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RAPID FIRE SYSTEMS IN ZONAL FLOW ARE LATITUDINALLY DISJOINTED THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE...MAKING PROSPECT FOR LOCATING ANY MEAGER PRECIP
THREAT QUITE SKETCHY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD FAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT CERTAINLY IS A NON ZERO THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  FIRST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MAINLY A WEAK FOCUS
OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK AT THAT.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO INVOLVE SOME ICE PROCESSES IN CLOUDS...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING TO LOSE ICE GENERATION
TEMPS DURING THE MIDDAY...EFFICIENCY FOR FLURRIES SEEMS LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE.  BEST DYNAMICS IN THE SHORTER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRESENT
AROUND WAVE WHICH MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DISTINCT PV FEATURE DIGGING PAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS
ALMOST NO THERMAL STRUCTURE AROUND TO FOCUS ANY LIFT...AND CERTAINLY
WARM ENOUGH WITH LAYER OF DRYING OFF SURFACE TO SUGGEST LACK OF
MEASURABLE THREAT.

DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND...WILL EBB AND FLOW IN BOTH DEPTH AND LOCATION AS FLOW
ALOFT IS INDUCED INTO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. THIS TIME
AROUND...INVERSION NOT QUITE AS FORMIDABLE...AND SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER FOR SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST/WEST SWINGS IN CLOUD LOCATION
AS WAVES MOVE PAST. MOST FLOW CHANGE IMPACT LOOKS TO OCCUR ALOFT...
WITH A PRETTY STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SURFACE WIND
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FORCING FOR THIS LAYER WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR...THAN TO
OCCUR. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WITH ANY SHALLOW PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WOULD BE ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHOW LESS
DIURNAL VARIABILITY OVERALL...AS CLOUDS...MILDER AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPER SNOW
COVER TO THE WEST ALONG WITH PROSPECT FOR BRIEF CLEARING PERIODS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LARGER RANGES IN THE WEST. HIGHS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TEENS
WESTERN SNOWCOVERED AREAS TO MAINLY 20S EAST...BUT VERY EASILY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT IN THE
EAST.

FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO PLACE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION WHICH HAS WAVE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUCH AS
THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE AS WELL...JUST 12-18 HOURS
LATER.  TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MOSTLY A LIQUID
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FORM IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF DIGGING SYSTEM...MAINLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWA...IF AT ALL. TEMPS AT SURFACE SUCH THAT MAY BE A BIT
OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERN...BUT PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
MAY BE A BIT COOL ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.  CLOSING OFF SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BULK COOLING AND MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK GENERALLY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EXIT OF SYSTEM SHOULD END WITH PRIMARILY A SNOW
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH IFR AND
MVFR CIGS LINGERING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING MOST LOCATIONS STAY
VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STRATUS DECK OUT WEST...AS IT COULD
TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AND POTENTIALLY EXPAND LATER TONIGHT. THUS
DECIDED TO MOVE MVFR CIGS BACK INTO KHON TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND NOT OF MUCH USE WITH THIS LOWER
STRATUS. SO WILL MAINLY BE A WATCH AND SEE WITH REGARD TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 170914
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY...DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING WITH THE WEAK FLOW.  AND WITH THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...I DECIDED TO GO FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS EXIST CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME... I FEEL MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO
EXPECT CLOUD DESK TO BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.  AND HALF TEMPTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO THAT CLOUD COVER.  BUT DECIDED TO SLOW THE
FALL MORE AT THIS TIME AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
CONTINUED WITH THE WEAK 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RAPID FIRE SYSTEMS IN ZONAL FLOW ARE LATITUDINALLY DISJOINTED THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE...MAKING PROSPECT FOR LOCATING ANY MEAGER PRECIP
THREAT QUITE SKETCHY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD FAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT CERTAINLY IS A NON ZERO THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  FIRST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MAINLY A WEAK FOCUS
OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK AT THAT.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO INVOLVE SOME ICE PROCESSES IN CLOUDS...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING TO LOSE ICE GENERATION
TEMPS DURING THE MIDDAY...EFFICIENCY FOR FLURRIES SEEMS LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE.  BEST DYNAMICS IN THE SHORTER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRESENT
AROUND WAVE WHICH MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DISTINCT PV FEATURE DIGGING PAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS
ALMOST NO THERMAL STRUCTURE AROUND TO FOCUS ANY LIFT...AND CERTAINLY
WARM ENOUGH WITH LAYER OF DRYING OFF SURFACE TO SUGGEST LACK OF
MEASURABLE THREAT.

DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND...WILL EBB AND FLOW IN BOTH DEPTH AND LOCATION AS FLOW
ALOFT IS INDUCED INTO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. THIS TIME
AROUND...INVERSION NOT QUITE AS FORMIDABLE...AND SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER FOR SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST/WEST SWINGS IN CLOUD LOCATION
AS WAVES MOVE PAST. MOST FLOW CHANGE IMPACT LOOKS TO OCCUR ALOFT...
WITH A PRETTY STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SURFACE WIND
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FORCING FOR THIS LAYER WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR...THAN TO
OCCUR. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WITH ANY SHALLOW PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WOULD BE ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHOW LESS
DIURNAL VARIABILITY OVERALL...AS CLOUDS...MILDER AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPER SNOW
COVER TO THE WEST ALONG WITH PROSPECT FOR BRIEF CLEARING PERIODS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LARGER RANGES IN THE WEST. HIGHS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TEENS
WESTERN SNOWCOVERED AREAS TO MAINLY 20S EAST...BUT VERY EASILY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT IN THE
EAST.

FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO PLACE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION WHICH HAS WAVE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUCH AS
THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE AS WELL...JUST 12-18 HOURS
LATER.  TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MOSTLY A LIQUID
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FORM IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF DIGGING SYSTEM...MAINLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWA...IF AT ALL. TEMPS AT SURFACE SUCH THAT MAY BE A BIT
OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERN...BUT PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
MAY BE A BIT COOL ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.  CLOSING OFF SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BULK COOLING AND MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK GENERALLY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EXIT OF SYSTEM SHOULD END WITH PRIMARILY A SNOW
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SCATTERED SUB-2K FT
AGL STRATUS ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...WITH ANY BROKEN DECK FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 170914
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY...DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING WITH THE WEAK FLOW.  AND WITH THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...I DECIDED TO GO FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS EXIST CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME... I FEEL MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO
EXPECT CLOUD DESK TO BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.  AND HALF TEMPTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO THAT CLOUD COVER.  BUT DECIDED TO SLOW THE
FALL MORE AT THIS TIME AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
CONTINUED WITH THE WEAK 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RAPID FIRE SYSTEMS IN ZONAL FLOW ARE LATITUDINALLY DISJOINTED THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE...MAKING PROSPECT FOR LOCATING ANY MEAGER PRECIP
THREAT QUITE SKETCHY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD FAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT CERTAINLY IS A NON ZERO THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  FIRST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MAINLY A WEAK FOCUS
OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK AT THAT.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO INVOLVE SOME ICE PROCESSES IN CLOUDS...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING TO LOSE ICE GENERATION
TEMPS DURING THE MIDDAY...EFFICIENCY FOR FLURRIES SEEMS LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE.  BEST DYNAMICS IN THE SHORTER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRESENT
AROUND WAVE WHICH MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DISTINCT PV FEATURE DIGGING PAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS
ALMOST NO THERMAL STRUCTURE AROUND TO FOCUS ANY LIFT...AND CERTAINLY
WARM ENOUGH WITH LAYER OF DRYING OFF SURFACE TO SUGGEST LACK OF
MEASURABLE THREAT.

DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND...WILL EBB AND FLOW IN BOTH DEPTH AND LOCATION AS FLOW
ALOFT IS INDUCED INTO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. THIS TIME
AROUND...INVERSION NOT QUITE AS FORMIDABLE...AND SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER FOR SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST/WEST SWINGS IN CLOUD LOCATION
AS WAVES MOVE PAST. MOST FLOW CHANGE IMPACT LOOKS TO OCCUR ALOFT...
WITH A PRETTY STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SURFACE WIND
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FORCING FOR THIS LAYER WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR...THAN TO
OCCUR. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WITH ANY SHALLOW PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WOULD BE ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHOW LESS
DIURNAL VARIABILITY OVERALL...AS CLOUDS...MILDER AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPER SNOW
COVER TO THE WEST ALONG WITH PROSPECT FOR BRIEF CLEARING PERIODS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LARGER RANGES IN THE WEST. HIGHS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TEENS
WESTERN SNOWCOVERED AREAS TO MAINLY 20S EAST...BUT VERY EASILY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT IN THE
EAST.

FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO PLACE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION WHICH HAS WAVE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUCH AS
THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE AS WELL...JUST 12-18 HOURS
LATER.  TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MOSTLY A LIQUID
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FORM IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF DIGGING SYSTEM...MAINLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWA...IF AT ALL. TEMPS AT SURFACE SUCH THAT MAY BE A BIT
OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERN...BUT PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
MAY BE A BIT COOL ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.  CLOSING OFF SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BULK COOLING AND MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK GENERALLY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EXIT OF SYSTEM SHOULD END WITH PRIMARILY A SNOW
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SCATTERED SUB-2K FT
AGL STRATUS ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...WITH ANY BROKEN DECK FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 170914
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY...DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING WITH THE WEAK FLOW.  AND WITH THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...I DECIDED TO GO FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
DID GO A LITTLE WARMER IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...QUESTIONS EXIST CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME... I FEEL MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO
EXPECT CLOUD DESK TO BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVERS.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.  AND HALF TEMPTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO THAT CLOUD COVER.  BUT DECIDED TO SLOW THE
FALL MORE AT THIS TIME AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
CONTINUED WITH THE WEAK 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT
TOO CONFIDENT THAT MUCH WILL DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RAPID FIRE SYSTEMS IN ZONAL FLOW ARE LATITUDINALLY DISJOINTED THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE...MAKING PROSPECT FOR LOCATING ANY MEAGER PRECIP
THREAT QUITE SKETCHY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...PERIOD FROM LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WOULD FAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
THAN ANYTHING ELSE...BUT CERTAINLY IS A NON ZERO THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  FIRST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY MAINLY A WEAK FOCUS
OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK AT THAT.
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO INVOLVE SOME ICE PROCESSES IN CLOUDS...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BRUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH STARTING TO LOSE ICE GENERATION
TEMPS DURING THE MIDDAY...EFFICIENCY FOR FLURRIES SEEMS LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE.  BEST DYNAMICS IN THE SHORTER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRESENT
AROUND WAVE WHICH MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
DISTINCT PV FEATURE DIGGING PAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS
ALMOST NO THERMAL STRUCTURE AROUND TO FOCUS ANY LIFT...AND CERTAINLY
WARM ENOUGH WITH LAYER OF DRYING OFF SURFACE TO SUGGEST LACK OF
MEASURABLE THREAT.

DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND...WILL EBB AND FLOW IN BOTH DEPTH AND LOCATION AS FLOW
ALOFT IS INDUCED INTO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. THIS TIME
AROUND...INVERSION NOT QUITE AS FORMIDABLE...AND SHOULD BE A BIT
EASIER FOR SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST/WEST SWINGS IN CLOUD LOCATION
AS WAVES MOVE PAST. MOST FLOW CHANGE IMPACT LOOKS TO OCCUR ALOFT...
WITH A PRETTY STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SURFACE WIND
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FORCING FOR THIS LAYER WOULD SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR...THAN TO
OCCUR. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE A
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WITH ANY SHALLOW PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD
DEVELOP. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WOULD BE ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHOW LESS
DIURNAL VARIABILITY OVERALL...AS CLOUDS...MILDER AIRMASS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPER SNOW
COVER TO THE WEST ALONG WITH PROSPECT FOR BRIEF CLEARING PERIODS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LARGER RANGES IN THE WEST. HIGHS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS TEENS
WESTERN SNOWCOVERED AREAS TO MAINLY 20S EAST...BUT VERY EASILY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT IN THE
EAST.

FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WOULD TEND TO PLACE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION WHICH HAS WAVE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUCH AS
THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE AS WELL...JUST 12-18 HOURS
LATER.  TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MOSTLY A LIQUID
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FORM IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF DIGGING SYSTEM...MAINLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN CWA...IF AT ALL. TEMPS AT SURFACE SUCH THAT MAY BE A BIT
OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERN...BUT PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
MAY BE A BIT COOL ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.  CLOSING OFF SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BULK COOLING AND MORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK GENERALLY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EXIT OF SYSTEM SHOULD END WITH PRIMARILY A SNOW
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SCATTERED SUB-2K FT
AGL STRATUS ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...WITH ANY BROKEN DECK FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 170433
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WILL UPDATE SKY COVER AND TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADILY ERODING
STRATUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...NO
UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESENT TO ADVECT BACK IN OVERNIGHT SO THINKING
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLEARING LINE IS
ROUGHLY FROM A HON TO YKN LINE AS OF 0230Z. NOT QUITE SURE
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLAIN SO WILL HOLD IN
SOME CLOUDS THERE.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...SUB ZERO TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY IN
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SCATTERED SUB-2K FT
AGL STRATUS ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...WITH ANY BROKEN DECK FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALLY
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 170433
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WILL UPDATE SKY COVER AND TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADILY ERODING
STRATUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...NO
UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESENT TO ADVECT BACK IN OVERNIGHT SO THINKING
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLEARING LINE IS
ROUGHLY FROM A HON TO YKN LINE AS OF 0230Z. NOT QUITE SURE
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLAIN SO WILL HOLD IN
SOME CLOUDS THERE.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...SUB ZERO TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY IN
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SCATTERED SUB-2K FT
AGL STRATUS ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...WITH ANY BROKEN DECK FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALLY
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 170244
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
844 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WILL UPDATE SKY COVER AND TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADILY ERODING
STRATUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...NO
UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESENT TO ADVECT BACK IN OVERNIGHT SO THINKING
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLEARING LINE IS
ROUGHLY FROM A HON TO YKN LINE AS OF 0230Z. NOT QUITE SURE
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLIAN SO WILL HOLD IN
SOME CLOUDS THERE.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...SUB ZERO TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY IN
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE IN A BIT OF A VOID WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MORE SCATTERED STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS A BIT UNSURE AS FAR AS WHERE THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FETCH IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY TRY TO ADVECT
A BIT OF THIS STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT REALLY
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR WEST THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REACH. FOR
NOW...WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND WATCH TRENDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALLY
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 170244
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
844 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WILL UPDATE SKY COVER AND TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADILY ERODING
STRATUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...NO
UPSTREAM CLOUDS PRESENT TO ADVECT BACK IN OVERNIGHT SO THINKING
CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLEARING LINE IS
ROUGHLY FROM A HON TO YKN LINE AS OF 0230Z. NOT QUITE SURE
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO CHAMBERLIAN SO WILL HOLD IN
SOME CLOUDS THERE.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MENTIONED...SUB ZERO TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY IN
AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE IN A BIT OF A VOID WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MORE SCATTERED STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS A BIT UNSURE AS FAR AS WHERE THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FETCH IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY TRY TO ADVECT
A BIT OF THIS STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT REALLY
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR WEST THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REACH. FOR
NOW...WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND WATCH TRENDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALLY
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 162308
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE IN A BIT OF A VOID WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MORE SCATTERED STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS A BIT UNSURE AS FAR AS WHERE THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FETCH IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY TRY TO ADVECT
A BIT OF THIS STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT REALLY
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR WEST THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REACH. FOR
NOW...WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND WATCH TRENDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 162308
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE IN A BIT OF A VOID WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MORE SCATTERED STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS A BIT UNSURE AS FAR AS WHERE THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FETCH IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY TRY TO ADVECT
A BIT OF THIS STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT REALLY
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR WEST THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REACH. FOR
NOW...WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND WATCH TRENDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 162118
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING
THINGS WELL. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY STAYING VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR OR IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 162118
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK...THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION TOO WELL. AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE UNCERTAIN IN BETWEEN...WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME CLEARING. THE RAP...WHICH MAY HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...MOVES STRATUS BACK INTO THIS REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR NOW OVERNIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. PLACES THAT ARE CLOUD
FREE COULD EASILY DROP TO -5 OR EVEN A BIT COLDER...WHILE LOCATIONS
IN STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND +10. SO WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PLAYED
LOWS MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS...LEANING A BIT TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE
WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF
WEAK MIXING AND COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT. IF WE STRATUS OVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF WE STAY MORE CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF
SUN TOMORROW. EITHER WAY HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHERE WE HAVE SNOWPACK...ONLY SEEING THE TEENS...WITH MID
20S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS OR NON EXISTENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
SUNDAY.

MODEST AREA OF ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIGHT GET ENOUGH
LIFT INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT BETTER LIFT
AND SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OFF SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STABILIZE AS
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
EVEN WITH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL POTENTIALLY
TO TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO BLANKET
THE FORECAST AREA INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT MAY HELP
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN HALF
IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WEAK SPLIT FLOW SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

MODEL CONFIDENCE LOWERS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SPLIT IT AROUND THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH SOME
TIMING CONCERNS WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH MONDAY FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING
THINGS WELL. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY STAYING VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR OR IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 161740
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING
THINGS WELL. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY STAYING VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR OR IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHENARD




000
FXUS63 KFSD 161740
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALL THREE TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...WITH MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING
THINGS WELL. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY STAYING VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR OR IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHENARD





000
FXUS63 KFSD 161143
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
AS BRISK WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH...ALONG WITH CLEARING TREND DURING THE
DAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME RAGGED IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF IN AND OUT CEILINGS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUE TO ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
EAST. HAVE TAKEN A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE ON CEILINGS AT THIS
JUNCTURE WITH MOIST LAYER BECOMING MORE SHALLOW WITH MODEST
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




000
FXUS63 KFSD 161143
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
AS BRISK WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH...ALONG WITH CLEARING TREND DURING THE
DAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME RAGGED IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF IN AND OUT CEILINGS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUE TO ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
EAST. HAVE TAKEN A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE ON CEILINGS AT THIS
JUNCTURE WITH MOIST LAYER BECOMING MORE SHALLOW WITH MODEST
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





000
FXUS63 KFSD 160944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH HON/FSD AT 11PM...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING AT SUX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AT HON/FSD FOR A FEW
HOURS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. WINDS (330-340 DEGREES) WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWNWARD BY DAYBREAK...BUT REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH TUESDAY PUSHING 25 MPH AT TIMES.

CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...PERHAPS
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FT AGL. MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO CEILINGS
SCATTERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 160944
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH HON/FSD AT 11PM...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING AT SUX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AT HON/FSD FOR A FEW
HOURS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. WINDS (330-340 DEGREES) WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWNWARD BY DAYBREAK...BUT REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH TUESDAY PUSHING 25 MPH AT TIMES.

CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...PERHAPS
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FT AGL. MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO CEILINGS
SCATTERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 160449
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH HON/FSD AT 11PM...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING AT SUX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AT HON/FSD FOR A FEW
HOURS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. WINDS (330-340 DEGREES) WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWNWARD BY DAYBREAK...BUT REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH TUESDAY PUSHING 25 MPH AT TIMES.

CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...PERHAPS
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FT AGL. MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO CEILINGS
SCATTERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-
     066-067-069>071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>054-057>060-063>065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 160449
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH HON/FSD AT 11PM...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING AT SUX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AT HON/FSD FOR A FEW
HOURS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST. WINDS (330-340 DEGREES) WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWNWARD BY DAYBREAK...BUT REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH TUESDAY PUSHING 25 MPH AT TIMES.

CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...PERHAPS
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FT AGL. MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO CEILINGS
SCATTERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-
     066-067-069>071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>054-057>060-063>065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 152324
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
524 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED IN HURON WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.

SIOUX FALLS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 1 MILE.

AT SIOUX CITY...VERY LIGHT RAIN/FOG WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CITY LATER
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF TUESDAY WILL BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED 25 GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW REDUCTIONS ESPECIALLY AT FSD.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED BLSN IN THE CURRENT TAF FOR THE PERIODS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE ADDITION AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR WEAK AS WE
MOVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 152324
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
524 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED IN HURON WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.

SIOUX FALLS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 1 MILE.

AT SIOUX CITY...VERY LIGHT RAIN/FOG WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CITY LATER
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF TUESDAY WILL BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED 25 GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW REDUCTIONS ESPECIALLY AT FSD.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED BLSN IN THE CURRENT TAF FOR THE PERIODS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE ADDITION AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR WEAK AS WE
MOVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 152109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE NEAR TEAM AND THEN
CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGES TO SNOW NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN SIUOX
FALLS...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH 19Z WITH A CHANGE
TO SNOW THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE IFR VSBYS WITH SNOW THROUGH 03Z.
FOR KSUX...EXPECT SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING DIRECTLY
TO SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 2 TO 3 THIS EVENING. KHON
WILL SEE SNOW THROUGH 22Z. AFTER SNOW ENDS...LOW CLOUDS FROM 1000
TO 2000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 152109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE NEAR TEAM AND THEN
CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGES TO SNOW NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN SIUOX
FALLS...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH 19Z WITH A CHANGE
TO SNOW THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE IFR VSBYS WITH SNOW THROUGH 03Z.
FOR KSUX...EXPECT SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING DIRECTLY
TO SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 2 TO 3 THIS EVENING. KHON
WILL SEE SNOW THROUGH 22Z. AFTER SNOW ENDS...LOW CLOUDS FROM 1000
TO 2000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 152109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE NEAR TEAM AND THEN
CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGES TO SNOW NORTH AND
WEST OF SIOUX FALLS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN SIUOX
FALLS...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH 19Z WITH A CHANGE
TO SNOW THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE IFR VSBYS WITH SNOW THROUGH 03Z.
FOR KSUX...EXPECT SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING DIRECTLY
TO SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 2 TO 3 THIS EVENING. KHON
WILL SEE SNOW THROUGH 22Z. AFTER SNOW ENDS...LOW CLOUDS FROM 1000
TO 2000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




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