000
FXUS63 KFSD 100246
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
845 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
COLDER AND DRIER SFC RIDGE MOVG SEWD OVER CWA REST OF TNGT...WITH
LAST VESTIGES OF SC CLOUDS IN FAR SE AND SWRN CWA EXPCD TO MOVE
OUT OR DSIPT. BRISK NNWLY FLOW IN ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ANY WIND CHILL PROBLEMS BEING A MOOT QUESTION BY TIME
TEMPS REALLY DROP. EXPECT AIR MASS TO RADIATE OUT TO THE MAX WITH
DECOUPLING BY SR. HOWEVER...WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY BR OR ICE CRYSTALS AFT SR
ESP I29 WEST. PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL...BUT MAY HAVE TO CUT
BACK LOWS SOME MORE...ESP IN THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS WITH PRISTINE
SNOW COVER. /RSR
&&
.AVIATION...
FRAGMENTS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS OF CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS....AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. EXPECT NORTH WINDS OF 5-10
KNOTS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT....BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. /BT
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 092054
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
255 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING OUT ACRS NRN CWA ATTM AND SHUD CLEAR ACRS REST OF CWA
THIS EVE. AS SFC HIGH SLIDES EWD ACRS CWA...WNDS WL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIGHT ACRS MOST OF CWA BY 06Z. WITH FRESH COVER OF
SNOW...TEMPS SHUD AGAIN FALL WELL BLO ZERO AND HAVE GONE AT LEAST 5
DEG COLDER THAN GUID. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO NEED FOR A WND
CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WNDS AROUND 4 TO 5 MPH WILL STILL PRODUCE WND
CHILLS NEAR 20 BELOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORN.
WED SHUD BE A FAIRLY BRIGHT DAY AS THE SFC HI MOVES TO ERN PART OF
FCST AREA. MODELS BRING LO LVL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE S WED
AFTN INTO THU. THIS IS SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE HABITUALLY POORLY
HANDLED AND EXPECT THEY ARE OVERDONE WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVBL
TO COME UP THAT FAST. HWVR WITH THIS DEPICTED INCREASE AND
EVENTUALLY SOME MID AND HI LVL MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IN FROM THE W LATE WED INTO THU...ENUF TO REACH THE PTCLDY
TO MOCLDY BORDERLINE. TEMPS SHUD RECOVER TO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S IN
AFTN...ON THE WAY TO THE MODERATELY COLD REGIME EXPECETED LATER IN
FCST PD.
NO PCPN EXPECTED THRU THU...BUT CLOUDS MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THU IN ADVANCE OF FIRST WEAK CLIPPER APPCHG FROM
THE NW. POTENTIAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYS WILL CONT TO BE
HANDLED BY SLGT CHC LATE THU NGT AND FRI MRNG. THIS SYS SHUD GIVE
WAY TO STGR CLIPPER/UPPER LOW ARRIVING FROM SRN CAN FRI NGT AND
EXITING SAT. WILL GO AGAIN WITH SLGT CHC LGT SNOW THESE PDS EVEN THO
THIS SYS BEING STGR SEEMS TO HAVE MORE POTENTIAL...ALSO HAS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING.
FOR SUN THRU TUE...MODELS SHOW A MODERATELY COLD NWRLY FLOW ALOFT
BCMG ESTABLISHED AND WILL GO WITH TEMPS AND DRY FCST ACCORDINGLY.
SHRTWVS THIS TIME PD SEEM TO BE QUITE WEAK AND HARD TO
TIME...SERVING MAINLY TO BLOCK SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTN ALONG AND S OF I90 WL BECOME VFR ACRS
ENTIRE CWA BY 03Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
WILLIAMS
000
FXUS63 KFSD 091606
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACRS ERN CWA AS SNOW IS TAPERING OFF
TO FLURRIES. VSBYS STILL DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 MILES WITH THE FLURRIES
AND BLOWING SNOW. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WL PBLY MAKE
ADJUSTENS TO HEADLINES BY 18Z. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WL CONT TO WRAP
AROUND ERN CWA THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING SPREADING IN FM THE NW. CAA
THRU THE AFTN SO TEMPS WL NOT WARM MUCH FM CURRENT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFT CIGS THRU 00Z BECOMING VFR.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND SNOW STREAMING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE MORNING IS EXPECTED BE LIGHT...AROUND A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY BLOWING AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BEGIN TO DROP BY
AFTERNOON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED AS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR WRAPPED WESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE DIURNAL TREND IS RATHER TRICKY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE FALLING BACK SOME IN OUR NORTHWEST
EARLY...BEFORE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA BEGIN TO STEADY OUT OR RISE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF HIGHLIGHTS...CANCELLED ALL ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN PLACE
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WHERE LITTLE SNOW FELL
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FIRST. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES...IN CONSIDERATION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA...AND A LONGER DURATION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN SO...THINK IT IS PRETTY MARGINAL WITH WIDESPREAD ONE HALF MILE
VISIBILITIES UNLIKELY...BUT COULD MEET THOSE CONDITIONS ON A LOCAL
SCALE. IF WINDS FALL OFF QUICKER THAN FORECASTED...DAY SHIFT MAY
ELECT TO SHORTEN OR CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED RIGHT OVER OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...AND WITH
THE VERY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
TONIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW OVER MANY AREAS. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE AND
HAVE LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 5 BELOW TO AROUND 10 BELOW.
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK INTO A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT EACH DAY...IN THE TEENS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY. MODELS
PROGGING VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH DIFFERING A BIT ON
TIMING WITH THESE FEATURES. DID THROW IN SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN OUR EAST...WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY...UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. /JM
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ002-
003-013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 091033
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
433 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND SNOW STREAMING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE MORNING IS EXPECTED BE LIGHT...AROUND A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY BLOWING AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BEGIN TO DROP BY
AFTERNOON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED AS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR WRAPPED WESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM...WITH
RISING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE
OF THIS...THE DIURNAL TREND IS RATHER TRICKY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE FALLING BACK SOME IN OUR NORTHWEST
EARLY...BEFORE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA BEGIN TO STEADY OUT OR RISE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF HIGHLIGHTS...CANCELLED ALL ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN PLACE
FROM THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WHERE LITTLE SNOW FELL
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FIRST. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
ZONES...IN CONSIDERATION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA...AND A LONGER DURATION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN SO...THINK IT IS PRETTY MARGINAL WITH WIDESPREAD ONE HALF MILE
VISIBILITIES UNLIKELY...BUT COULD MEET THOSE CONDITIONS ON A LOCAL
SCALE. IF WINDS FALL OFF QUICKER THAN FORECASTED...DAY SHIFT MAY
ELECT TO SHORTEN OR CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED RIGHT OVER OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...AND WITH
THE VERY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
TONIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW OVER MANY AREAS. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE AND
HAVE LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 5 BELOW TO AROUND 10 BELOW.
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK INTO A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT EACH DAY...IN THE TEENS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY. MODELS
PROGGING VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH DIFFERING A BIT ON
TIMING WITH THESE FEATURES. DID THROW IN SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN OUR EAST...WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A WAVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY...UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. /JM
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN -SN MOST
DOMINANT ALONG/EAST OF KYKN-KBKX LINE AS OF 10Z...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS ALSO BLANKETING CENTRAL-NERN SD. EXPECT EASTERN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THROUGH VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE AS -SN DIMINISHES. WESTERN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SAG INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KHON...EARLY THIS
MRNG...BUT THAT AREA EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z-20Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH
00Z WED. /JH
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ002-
003-013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 090313
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
910 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
BIG BREAK IN CLOUDS FROM SERN SD TO NWRN IA PERMITTED TEMPS TO DROP
LIKE ROCK OVER PRISTINE SNOW COVER AFTER SS. THE USUAL CULPRIT SPOTS
LIKE FSD AND SPW WERE THE BIG BENEFACTORS OF THE ARCTIC RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER COLD UPR LOW...TO NEAR 20 BELOW AT SPW ASOS AND 15
BELOW AT FSD ASOS EARLY TNGT...BUT TEMP HAS ALREADY RISEN TO 20
ABOVE AT HON WITH WRAPAROUND WARMER AIR. AS TIGHT UPR LOW MOVES SEWD
OVER CWA...THIS WARMER AIR ALONG WITH THE WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO MOVE SEWD OVER CWA REST OF NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY HAD TO FINE TUNE
GRIDS...ESP HOURLY TEMPS AND WX...AS EVERYTHING EVOLVING SLOWER THAN
PREV FCST. FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AND MODELS...NOT REALLY A LOT OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE AVBL FOR MUCH SNOWFALL REST OF TNGT...BUT A TOTAL OF 2
TO 3 INCHES IN NERN CWA TO LESS THAN AN INCH SW NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...SO WILL LET WSW RIDE. AREAS OF BLWG SNOW SHOULD NOT
REALLY BE THAT WDSPRD EITHER AS NNWLY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE
THAN 15 TO 25 MPH AS LOW PULLS SE TNGT./ RSR
&&
.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO HEAD
SOUTH DOWN THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. AS OF 03Z...LOW WAS CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF KSUX. DRY SLOT OVER NORTHWEST IOWA RESULTING IN VFR
WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH TONIGHT TO BE REPLACED BY MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH CREATING SOME BLOWING
SNOW. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z WED. /BT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
OCNL LGT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SHUD CONT INTO TNGT OVER WRN PART OF
FCST AREA WITH THE FALLING SNOW DECREASING SLWLY FROM LATE EVE ON.
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONT THRU THE NGT AND WILL ACCORDINGLY KEEP
ADVY THRU THE NGT. FRTHR E...AND ESPLY FAR ERN FCST AREA...LGT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE N THIS EVE WITH SWD PASSAGE
OF SFC TROF WHICH IS AN UNCOMMON SORT OF WARMFNT. SNOW...WINDS...AND
TEMPS WILL ALL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS TROF...SO ADVY LOOKS
GOOD FOR AT LEAST THE BLOWING SNOW...XCP WILL KEEP OUT OF FAR SRN
FCST AREA FROM SPRINGFIELD/YKN TO SUX. BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SNOWFALL BRUSHES FAR ERN FCST AREA AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
SEEMS PSBL TNGT ALONG ERN BORDER OF FCST AREA...ESPLY ERN PART OF
SWRN MN. WITH A RATHER SUDDEN INCREASE OF WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE EVE
FROM CURRENTLY TRANQUIL CONDS...BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE
RPDLY...AND WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD CONDS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QSTN. WILL KEEP A STG ADVY FOR NOW WITH RIPEST POTENTIAL FOR DECENT
SNOW AND WHITEOUTS JUST E OF FCST AREA. BASICALLY CONDS WILL BE
DETERIORATING E AS THEY BEGIN TO IMPROVE OUT W. TEMPS WILL BE GOING
UP. FOR NOW EXPECT THAT THE WARMING WILL BE SMOOTHED OUT
SOMEWHAT...ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING INTO THE 20S AS WE HAVE
NOW N OF FCST AREA. IN ANY EVENT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TNGT./WILLIAMS
THE FINAL WRAP AROUND SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. WILL STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...SO KEEPING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THESE
AREAS SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...A MODIFIED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I29...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT A LITTLE FOG COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT ABOUT -13 DEGREES C OR
COLDER...WOULD SUSPECT MAINLY ICE CRYSTALS SO FOG WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT. OTHERWISE...THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO FROM SUX TO SLB TO AROUND
10 BELOW FROM HON TO BKX.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND
CREEPING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST BY
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WE WILL BE SHAKING OFF THIS COLD AIR MASS...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE AIR MASS MODIFY WITH LOWS
AND HIGHS BOTH ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. ALBEIT
WITH LESS SUNSHINE AND MORE WIND. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN SW MN AND NW IA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SC SD. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO HAVE PLACED A SMALL POP ALONG THE
MO RIVER FOR LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(FRI/MON)...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED
BY A STRONG EAST COAST TROF...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN A MODIFIED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OF COURSE...WITH
A RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES...WEAK WAVES FORECAST BY
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM DAY TO DAY ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...SO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREATS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT POTENTIAL MAY COME SUNDAY...BUT AGREEMENT AND
THE FACT THAT IT COULD REMAIN EAST OF US WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HIGHS. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>062-066-067.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 082245
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
445 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
OCNL LGT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SHUD CONT INTO TNGT OVER WRN PART OF
FCST AREA WITH THE FALLING SNOW DECREASING SLWLY FROM LATE EVE ON.
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONT THRU THE NGT AND WILL ACCORDINGLY KEEP
ADVY THRU THE NGT. FRTHR E...AND ESPLY FAR ERN FCST AREA...LGT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE N THIS EVE WITH SWD PASSAGE
OF SFC TROF WHICH IS AN UNCOMMON SORT OF WARMFNT. SNOW...WINDS...AND
TEMPS WILL ALL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS TROF...SO ADVY LOOKS
GOOD FOR AT LEAST THE BLOWING SNOW...XCP WILL KEEP OUT OF FAR SRN
FCST AREA FROM SPRINGFIELD/YKN TO SUX. BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR
SNOWFALL BRUSHES FAR ERN FCST AREA AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
SEEMS PSBL TNGT ALONG ERN BORDER OF FCST AREA...ESPLY ERN PART OF
SWRN MN. WITH A RATHER SUDDEN INCREASE OF WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE EVE
FROM CURRENTLY TRANQUIL CONDS...BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE
RPDLY...AND WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD CONDS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QSTN. WILL KEEP A STG ADVY FOR NOW WITH RIPEST POTENTIAL FOR DECENT
SNOW AND WHITEOUTS JUST E OF FCST AREA. BASICALLY CONDS WILL BE
DETERIORATING E AS THEY BEGIN TO IMPROVE OUT W. TEMPS WILL BE GOING
UP. FOR NOW EXPECT THAT THE WARMING WILL BE SMOOTHED OUT
SOMEWHAT...ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING INTO THE 20S AS WE HAVE
NOW N OF FCST AREA. IN ANY EVENT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TNGT./WILLIAMS
THE FINAL WRAP AROUND SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IN PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA. WILL STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL...SO KEEPING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THESE
AREAS SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...A MODIFIED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I29...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT A LITTLE FOG COULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT ABOUT -13 DEGREES C OR
COLDER...WOULD SUSPECT MAINLY ICE CRYSTALS SO FOG WOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT. OTHERWISE...THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO FROM SUX TO SLB TO AROUND
10 BELOW FROM HON TO BKX.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND
CREEPING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST BY
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE WE WILL BE SHAKING OFF THIS COLD AIR MASS...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE AIR MASS MODIFY WITH LOWS
AND HIGHS BOTH ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. ALBEIT
WITH LESS SUNSHINE AND MORE WIND. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN SW MN AND NW IA TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN SC SD. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO HAVE PLACED A SMALL POP ALONG THE
MO RIVER FOR LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(FRI/MON)...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED
BY A STRONG EAST COAST TROF...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN A MODIFIED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OF COURSE...WITH
A RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AT TIMES...WEAK WAVES FORECAST BY
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM DAY TO DAY ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...SO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREATS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT POTENTIAL MAY COME SUNDAY...BUT AGREEMENT AND
THE FACT THAT IT COULD REMAIN EAST OF US WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HIGHS. /08
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS 1-3K FT AND FQT IFR VSBYS BLO 3SM IN LGT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW OVER WRN FCST AREA AT THE START OF THE EVE WILL DEVELOP ALSO
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE N OVER ERN FCST AREA 00Z TO 09Z AS SFC TROF
PASSES SWD OVER AREA. LIFR VSBYS OF BLO 1/4 MI IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE FOUND IN AREAS. AS COLD UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF
FCST AREA CONDS SHYUD SLWLY IMPROVE ERN FCST AREA AFT 06Z AND IN THE
E AFT 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDS OVER EWRN HALF OF FCST AREA BEFORE 18Z
TUE AND IN THE E AFT 18Z./WILLIAMS
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>062-066-067.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 081608
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1010 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE VRBL CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU THIS AFTN. LGT SNOW SHUD CONT TO
SPREAD SLOWLY OUR NWRN FCST AREA THRU MID AFTN WITH MORE SEWD SPREAD
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. WITH THE FALLING SNOW THERE IS ENUF
WIND TO KEEP WINTER WX ADVY NW. FRTHR S AND E WHERE THERE IS NO
FALLING SNOW FOR NOW...WORST CONDS ARE IN THE SERN CRNR WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AROUND STORM LAKE IA. IN THE RIPEST AREA
WHICH IS SWRN MN...WINDS ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF THE MOST THIS AFTN.
CONDS GOOD ENUF TO JUSTIFY CANCELLING THE ADVY IF CONDS WERENT SET
TO WORSEN AGAIN QUITE A BIT NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AND TNGT AS
FIRST LGT SNOW MOVES IN...THEN LATER ON WINDS FINALLY PICK UP AS
SNOW INCREASES FRTHR. WILL KEEP ADVY THEREFORE AND WORD STATEMENT TO
MAKE IT PLAIN THAT MOST OF THE BAD CONDS WILL CONT TNGT INTO TUE.
WILL CONT TO ADJUST TEMPS AS NEEDED BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF WARMING
FROM THE NE LATER TDA THRU TNGT LOOKS GOOD. THIS WARMING WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS BY THEMSELVES WARMER THAN ADVY THRESHHOLD ONCE WE GET TO
MID AFTN AND ON.
&&
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND FQT IFR VSBYS IN LGT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WERE OVER
NWRN CRNR OF FCST AREA INCLUDG HON AT 16Z...WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NWRN IA ALSO. THE BLOWING SNOW IN NWRN IA WILL LESSEN
NEXT SVRL HRS. OTRW...THE LOWER CONDS NWRN CRNR WILL GRDLY SPREAD
SEWD OVER AREA 16Z-09/06Z AS COLD UPPER LOW PASSES OVER AND SE OF
AREA AND THE LWR CONDS SPREAD IN BHND LOW. LWR CONDS EXPECTED TO
DVLP FSD AFT 00Z AND AT SUX BU 06Z. THESE LWR CONDS SHUD CONT INTO
TUE MRNG ADN WINDS CONT TO PICK UP. SOME GNRL IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN
BY 09/18Z AS SNOW THEN WINDS START TO DCRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FEATURE. RADAR/OBS SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH OUR MN
AND IA ZONES...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH BEST PV ADVECTION LOCATED OVER THIS AREA. TO THE
WEST...DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SO
EXPECTING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BEGINNING TO SEE WRAP AROUND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF DEVELOPING TROWAL...AND IT WILL
BE THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO OUR NORTH BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND THE
STRONG CAA...SEEING WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS...IN ADDITION TO ANY
FRESH SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND...TO BLOW AROUND CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH JUST
TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA...THEN BEGIN TO COLLAPSE SOUTHWARD AND
PIVOT BACK A BIT WESTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING...OUR CWA WILL BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROWAL...WHICH WILL PULL SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER OUR FAR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLLOCATED WITH THE
COLLAPSING INVERTED TROUGH AND IN THE AREA OF BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS SHOWN BY STRONG DIV Q WHICH REMAINS OVER THAT AREA INTO
TONIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IN OUR EAST...WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR
TO 6 INCHES IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION OF ALL THE ABOVE MAKE HEADLINES FAIRLY
COMPLICATED...WITH WINDS DYING IN OUR EAST WHERE THE BETTER SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED...AND HIGHER WINDS REMAINING IN OUR WEST WHERE LESS SNOW
WILL OCCUR. KEPT MOST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE SAKE OF
COLLABORATION...BUT DID ADD IDA COUNTY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED. DEPENDENT ON HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES
TODAY...MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY IN OUR FAR WEST WHERE
LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED...AND IF MORE SNOW THAN WE HAVE CURRENTLY
HAVE FORECASTED OCCURS IN OUR NORTHEAST...MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THEM
UP TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO GOING TO BE TRICKY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF TODAY...THEN STEADYING OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN TONIGHT...AS WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE THE BULK OF OUR SNOW OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROWAL DROPS ACROSS OUR CWA.
ON TUESDAY...WILL HAVE LINGERING SNOW IN OUR EAST AS THE TROWAL
WEAKENS AND PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. IF TEMPERATURES WARM AS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE ON TUESDAY WITH
READINGS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIE OFF...READINGS WILL
PLUMMET...MAKING FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH
LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /JM
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>062-066-067.
&&
$$
WILLIAMS
000
FXUS63 KFSD 081104
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
504 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FEATURE. RADAR/OBS SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH OUR MN
AND IA ZONES...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH BEST PV ADVECTION LOCATED OVER THIS AREA. TO THE
WEST...DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SO
EXPECTING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BEGINNING TO SEE WRAP AROUND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF DEVELOPING TROWAL...AND IT WILL
BE THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO OUR NORTH BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND THE
STRONG CAA...SEEING WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS...IN ADDITION TO ANY
FRESH SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND...TO BLOW AROUND CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH JUST
TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA...THEN BEGIN TO COLLAPSE SOUTHWARD AND
PIVOT BACK A BIT WESTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING...OUR CWA WILL BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROWAL...WHICH WILL PULL SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER OUR FAR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLLOCATED WITH THE
COLLAPSING INVERTED TROUGH AND IN THE AREA OF BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS SHOWN BY STRONG DIV Q WHICH REMAINS OVER THAT AREA INTO
TONIGHT. PRETTY TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IN OUR EAST...WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR
TO 6 INCHES IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST.
THE COMBINATION OF ALL THE ABOVE MAKE HEADLINES FAIRLY
COMPLICATED...WITH WINDS DYING IN OUR EAST WHERE THE BETTER SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED...AND HIGHER WINDS REMAINING IN OUR WEST WHERE LESS SNOW
WILL OCCUR. KEPT MOST OF THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE SAKE OF
COLLABORATION...BUT DID ADD IDA COUNTY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED. DEPENDENT ON HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES
TODAY...MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY IN OUR FAR WEST WHERE
LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED...AND IF MORE SNOW THAN WE HAVE CURRENTLY
HAVE FORECASTED OCCURS IN OUR NORTHEAST...MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THEM
UP TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO GOING TO BE TRICKY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF TODAY...THEN STEADYING OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN TONIGHT...AS WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE THE BULK OF OUR SNOW OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROWAL DROPS ACROSS OUR CWA.
ON TUESDAY...WILL HAVE LINGERING SNOW IN OUR EAST AS THE TROWAL
WEAKENS AND PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. IF TEMPERATURES WARM AS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE ON TUESDAY WITH
READINGS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIE OFF...READINGS WILL
PLUMMET...MAKING FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH
LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /JM
&&
AVIATION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT VARIABLE VFR
TO MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...THEN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN
LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKS
BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER 09/00Z THRU 09/12Z IN LIGHT SNW
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-25KTS
ALSO SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /GH
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
SDZ038>040-052>062-066-067.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 080330
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
930 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED EWRD INTO FAR WRN PORTIONS OF SW MN
AND NW IA THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC BNDRY MAKES INROADS ACRS NWRN
CWA. MASSIVE UPR WAVE FEATURING POTENTIAL TROP BLO 800 HPA IN WRN
ND...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH A MORE WWRD TRACK FOR
THE TROP UNDULATION. IN THE SHORTEST RANGE...SHALLOW WAA LIFT
REMAINS FOCUSED THRU ERN CWA ALG/AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH...AND
TEMPORARY WK RIDGING SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF ALL BUT MORE SHALLOW
PRECIP FORCING THRU WRN CWA. THIS MAKING FOR ONLY PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
AND GENERALLY OCNL FLURRIES FOR A WHILE AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF
THE LOWER TO MID LVL FRONTAL FORCING WHICH SHUD FOCUS ANOTHER AREA
OF LIGHT PCPN SEWRD THRU CWA POST MIDNIGHT.
AS SFC TROUGH SLOWS MOVING THRU ERN CWA OVERNIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THRU HIGH PLAINS...GRADIENT WL INCREASE
AND SFC WINDS WL LIKEWISE INCREASE. PRESSURE RISES 2-3HPA/3H BACK
THRU NWRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ARCTIC SURGE. EXAMINING THE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES...VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT TO GET
A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SETUP...ESPLY WITH WNDS LKLY NOT TO
EXCEED 25 TO 30 KTS MAX IN MIXED LYR. COUPLED WITH FACT THAT THE
MOST RECENT SNOWFALL DID MISS THE KMHE TO KYKN AND WWRD AREA...WL
DROP THE HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE LOWER JAMES THRU LOWER MO VLY.
REMAINDER OF THE SD CWA AND INTO ADJACENT NW IA WL LKLY NOT SEE
SEVERELY DEGRADED WINTER CONDITIONS AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATER IN THE NIGHT SHUD BE FOCUSED THRU NERN CWA WHERE
LOWER LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCKS INTO PLACE WITH APPROACHING
STRONG PV ADVECTION/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. LKLY 1-2 INCHES IN FAR
NERN CWA IN PLAY...WITH LESSER AMTS BACK ALG/W OF I29.
HOWEVER...REALIZE THAT THE FULL DITCHES WL MEAN THAT EVEN THE 20-30
MPH WINDS WL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING SNOW AND LKLY BECOME A
VERY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM TO ROAD CONDITIONS HEADING THRU LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS GRADIENT BUILDS EWRD THRU CWA. FAR E MAY
END UP BEING SPARED STRONGER WINDS EVEN UNTIL MONDAY...BUT COLLAPSE
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH SWRD THRU CWA MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WL LKLY
BRING A DECREASE TO WNDS FOR A TIME...AS WELL AS DRAGGING THE BETTER
PCPN THREAT SWRD...EVENTUALLY REFOCUSING MORE TO S AND SYSTEM PHASES
IN CNTRL PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT UP THE
WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY 6 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE OVERALL
THRU TUE IN FAR ERN CWA THRU A 48H PERIOD...AND WITH WNDS LKLY NOT
STRONGER NEAR LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH THRU ERN CWA...DID NOT
ALTER HIGHLIGHTS FROM WINTER WEATHER ADVY AT THIS TIME FOR FAR
ERN GROUPING. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST AS TRANSITION FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONES TO POST ARCTIC FRONT LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MVFR
AND LOCALLY IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH VSBYS BECOMING MVFR AS
WELL AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN SW MN AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW TAKING VSBYS TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS AND IFR
WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS BUT ONLY A FEW GUSTS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY IN MUCH OF SE SD WHERE DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT
DURING THE MORNING ALLOWING CIGS TO LIFT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FROM
SW MN INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS SE SD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. /SCHUMACHER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WORKING INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE AS OF 20Z. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACTUALLY CAUSES ATMOSPHERE TO BE CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW THE DENDRITIC LAYER. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASES AND COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PRODUCES A QUICK INCH OF
SNOWFALL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WILL CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH 925 HPA WINDS OF
20-30 KNOTS...COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACH THESE VALUES...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. EVENING SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH MINNEHAHA TO CHEROKEE COUNTIES VERY CAREFULLY AS
THESE AREAS PICKED UP 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY AFTER 6Z...BUT
THINK WITH DEEPENING DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH EEKS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS 12Z. /BT
MONDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BREEZY DAY...AND A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
FORECAST CHALLENGE. TODAYS MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE MAXIMUM QPF AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS...SO DO
HAVE SOME FAITH THAT THIS IS THE WAY TO GO. OVERALL...FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SC SD TO 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM NEAR MML TO
MWM. SO...HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH AND WENT AHEAD WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COVER THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW CAUSED BY WHAT SHOULD BE A 15 TO 30 MPH NORTHWEST WIND.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW WITH THE PV ANOMALY WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY LEAVING
BEHIND A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. AFTER THIS...WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY UP FOR A FEW HOURS...AWAITING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WRAP AROUND TROWAL FEATURE FROM THE NORTH. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE FAR EASTERN CWA FROM ABOUT SPW TO MML
WHERE UPPER SUPPORT AND MOIST AIRFLOW CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SW MN WHERE A PIVOT POINT MAY END UP SETTING UP AS THE WAVE
WRAPS UP...THEN DROPS SOUTH. HAVE BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE 750-650MB AIR WRAPPING BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM WRAPS UP TO THE SOUTHEAST THE TROWAL WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN RISING IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WARMER AIR WRAPS SOUTHWARD. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING SO RAISED LOWS TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS WARMER AIR
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY...WELL INTO THE MODIFIED COLDER AIR...SO AGAIN...RAISED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ONLY GOING IN THE TEENS. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
FAR EAST AS THE TROWAL WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. A LITTLE
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL KEEP LOWS
BELOW GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NEAR SUX TO AROUND 10
BELOW NEAR HON. IF WE CAN TOTALLY CLEAR OUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LOWS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLOW EXIT OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE...SO SLOWED
THE DIURNAL RANGE DOWN IN THE MORNING AND KEPT HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
ASSUMING SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND A POSSIBLY SLOWER TO EXIT HIGH
PRESSURE.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU/SUN)...STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE IS A
HINT OF A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN CWA FOR THIS FEATURE. AFTER
THIS...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT AND NOT
MUCH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE HINT AT ANOTHER
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS BUILDING
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
AGREEABLE THAT THE AIR BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...SO WE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT POTENTIALLY ONLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES VS. 15 TO 20 DEGREES. /08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
NE...NONE.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
SDZ038>040-052>062-066-067.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 072109
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WORKING INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE AS OF 20Z. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACTUALLY CAUSES ATMOSPHERE TO BE CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW THE DENDRITIC LAYER. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS...LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASES AND COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PRODUCES A QUICK INCH OF
SNOWFALL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WILL CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH 925 HPA WINDS OF
20-30 KNOTS...COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACH THESE VALUES...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. EVENING SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH MINNEHAHA TO CHEROKEE COUNTIES VERY CAREFULLY AS
THESE AREAS PICKED UP 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY AFTER 6Z...BUT
THINK WITH DEEPENING DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH EEKS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS 12Z. /BT
MONDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BREEZY DAY...AND A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
FORECAST CHALLENGE. TODAYS MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE MAXIMUM QPF AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS...SO DO
HAVE SOME FAITH THAT THIS IS THE WAY TO GO. OVERALL...FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SC SD TO 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM NEAR MML TO
MWM. SO...HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH AND WENT AHEAD WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COVER THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW CAUSED BY WHAT SHOULD BE A 15 TO 30 MPH NORTHWEST WIND.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW WITH THE PV ANOMALY WILL SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY LEAVING
BEHIND A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY. AFTER THIS...WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY UP FOR A FEW HOURS...AWAITING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WRAP AROUND TROWAL FEATURE FROM THE NORTH. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE FAR EASTERN CWA FROM ABOUT SPW TO MML
WHERE UPPER SUPPORT AND MOIST AIRFLOW CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SW MN WHERE A PIVOT POINT MAY END UP SETTING UP AS THE WAVE
WRAPS UP...THEN DROPS SOUTH. HAVE BROUGHT SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE 750-650MB AIR WRAPPING BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM WRAPS UP TO THE SOUTHEAST THE TROWAL WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN RISING IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WARMER AIR WRAPS SOUTHWARD. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING SO RAISED LOWS TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS WARMER AIR
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY...WELL INTO THE MODIFIED COLDER AIR...SO AGAIN...RAISED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ONLY GOING IN THE TEENS. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
FAR EAST AS THE TROWAL WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. A LITTLE
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL KEEP LOWS
BELOW GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NEAR SUX TO AROUND 10
BELOW NEAR HON. IF WE CAN TOTALLY CLEAR OUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LOWS EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLOW EXIT OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE...SO SLOWED
THE DIURNAL RANGE DOWN IN THE MORNING AND KEPT HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
ASSUMING SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND A POSSIBLY SLOWER TO EXIT HIGH
PRESSURE.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU/SUN)...STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE IS A
HINT OF A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN CWA FOR THIS FEATURE. AFTER
THIS...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT AND NOT
MUCH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE HINT AT ANOTHER
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS BUILDING
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
AGREEABLE THAT THE AIR BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...SO WE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT POTENTIALLY ONLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES VS. 15 TO 20 DEGREES. /08
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE TO IFR AFTER 00Z AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE AS
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. COULD SEE A BAND OF CONVECTIVE
SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AFTER 23Z/SUN IN
KHON...05Z AT KFSD AND 06Z AT KSUX. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
KEEP VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z
TUESDAY. /BT
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012-
020-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-097-
098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ072-080-
081-089-090.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ014.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>062-065>067-071.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 071640
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING FOR NEARLY ENTIRE CWA TO OCCASIONAL WITH
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL WAVES CREATING LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...TOTALING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS. REALLY STARTING TO FOCUS ON TONIGHT AS POLAR FRONT DROPS
FROM THE NORTH. APPEARS AS THOUGH COULD GET A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
SNOW THIS EVENING. 12Z MODEL RUNS PLACE THE FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WHERE THE WATCH IS. JET STREAK SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CREATES VERY
STRONG CURVATURE IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET RESULTING
IN VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV Q. IN ADDITION...750-700MB EPV
BECOMES NEGATIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY SLOT. WILL RESOLVE THE
WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...BUT DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM (AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED) ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. AM CONCERNED
THAT 30-35 KNOTS OF WIND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CREATE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY WITH -24 INCHES OF FRESH FLUFF
ACROSS THE AREA. /BT
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...STILL
ARE DEALING WITH A STRONG AREA OF UPPER QG FORCING IN THE H5-H3 LYR
WORKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA...ESP THRU 18Z TODAY. THIS
FORCING HAS HELPED TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY THRU A GOOD PORTION OF
THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA ATTM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREA LIKELY
WORKING ITS WAY EWD INTO OUR ERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
AM EXPECTING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT NONETHELESS A BIT OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL PROBABLY
STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL ASCENT. MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY WL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND NOT MOVING RADICALLY UP FM
CURRENT READINGS TO THE OBVIOUS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD MID AND UPPER LOW
DIVES DOWN SWD OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA CREATING SOME INTERESTING WX
FOR OUR AREA. FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL AND
GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE TRACKS AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE NAM...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO FAR OFF...WAS A BIT OF A NORTH
AND SLOW OUTLIER. THEREFORE WAS DISREGARDED. THE INITIAL SURGE COMES
DOWN TONIGHT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG CAA. THE PV1.5 PRESSURE SURFACE
IS OFF THE CHARTS...WITH THE TROPOPAUSE SURGE DOWN TO AROUND 800MB
ON THE GFS...ENTERING OUR NW CWFA LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIVING DOWN
OUR WRN HALF ON MONDAY. THE UPPER QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL PV IS
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE...WITH THOSE FEATURES ROTATING SWD ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IMPACTING OUR NRN AND ERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY EVENING. AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO
SAY THE LEAST. DUE TO THE WOUND UP NATURE OF THE MID AND UPPER
LOW...THE THE DRY SLOT IS STILL ON TARGET TO LARGELY IMPACE THE NWRN
AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
DEEPER MID LVL MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH OF THERE IN S CENTRAL SD.
THEREFORE FEEL THAT ONLY VERY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT IN
OUR NW AND W CENTRAL...RUNNING INTO A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE BOUNDARY
HEADING E OF THERE. THUS THE POP GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT IS ASTOUNDING
FM E CENTRAL SD MOVG EWD TOWARD THE MINNESOTA BORDER. POST CDFNT
WIND WL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WHICH WL LIKELY CREATE A LOT OF
BLSN...ESPECIALLY SINCE OUR AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SNOW SINCE
FRIDAY.
ON MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AFTER THE INITIAL CAA SURGE MOVES
THRU...THE SFC WIND WL LARGELY SETTLE DOWN INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY...GOING OFF OF THE H925-H9 WIND SPEEDS.
SFC INVERTED TROFFING FIRST SETS UP JUST E OF OUR FA ON
MONDAY...WITH IT THEN PINWHEELING BACK THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SO DUE TO A BAGGIER GRADIENT...OUR FA OVERALL
WL SEE LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STRONG
TROWAL...WHICH WAS E OF OUR FA ON THE 00Z/6TH MODEL RUNS...NOW
CLEARLY ROTATES BACK INTO OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING ON
TUE. POSSIBLY THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILTY
IN THE H7-H65 LYR PER THE EPV* WHICH IS AFFECTING SW MN AND THE IA
GRTLKS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND
COULD CREATE BANDING MDT TO HEAVY SNOW WHICH WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR THOSE AREAS. THAT IS THE PRIMARY REASON I DECIDED TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MARSHALL DOWN TO STORM LAKE IA FOR TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY...WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL...COUPLED
WITH OFF AND ON BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS.
ELSEWHERE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY EXCEPT FROM
GREGORY COUNTY...EWD TO DIXON COUNTY NEB. THOSE AREAS GET DRY
SLOTTED PRETTY HARD ALL DAY ON MONDAY AND EVEN MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RH TIME SECTIONS WHICH SHOW HOW THIN THE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS IN THOSE AREAS FOR ABOUT 18 HRS. BUT ELSEWHERE IN
THE ADVY AREA...DESPITE THE TEMPORARY DRY SLOTTING ON MONDAY...
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES WL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD FM TONIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND AND ALREADY FALLEN SNOW...
WHICH WL LIKELY CREATE A LOT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE COUNTRY.
DID NOT ALTER TEMPS MUCH. OBVIOUSLY THEY WL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME REBOUND IN THE DRY SLOT SECTOR
POSSIBLE. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROWAL EVEN SHOWS UP NICELY MONDAY
NIGHT AT H925...WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVG SWD FM THE NORTH. THEREFORE
AM WONDERING IF OUR READINGS WL BE A BIT NON DIURNAL MONDAY NIGHT.
AT ANY RATE...VERY LITTLE FALL SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM
MONDAYS HIGHS. THEN ANOTHER SLOW REBOUND ON TUESDAY. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001-012-020-031-032.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-097-098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR NEZ014.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR SDZ038>040-052>062-065>067-071.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 071134
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...STILL
ARE DEALING WITH A STRONG AREA OF UPPER QG FORCING IN THE H5-H3 LYR
WORKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA...ESP THRU 18Z TODAY. THIS
FORCING HAS HELPED TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY THRU A GOOD PORTION OF
THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA ATTM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREA LIKELY
WORKING ITS WAY EWD INTO OUR ERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
AM EXPECTING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT NONETHELESS A BIT OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL PROBABLY
STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL ASCENT. MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY WL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND NOT MOVING RADICALLY UP FM
CURRENT READINGS TO THE OBVIOUS CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD MID AND UPPER LOW
DIVES DOWN SWD OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA CREATING SOME INTERESTING WX
FOR OUR AREA. FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL AND
GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE TRACKS AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE NAM...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO FAR OFF...WAS A BIT OF A NORTH
AND SLOW OUTLIER. THEREFORE WAS DISREGARDED. THE INITIAL SURGE COMES
DOWN TONIGHT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG CAA. THE PV1.5 PRESSURE SURFACE
IS OFF THE CHARTS...WITH THE TROPOPAUSE SURGE DOWN TO AROUND 800MB
ON THE GFS...ENTERING OUR NW CWFA LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIVING DOWN
OUR WRN HALF ON MONDAY. THE UPPER QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL PV IS
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE...WITH THOSE FEATURES ROTATING SWD ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IMPACTING OUR NRN AND ERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY EVENING. AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO
SAY THE LEAST. DUE TO THE WOUND UP NATURE OF THE MID AND UPPER
LOW...THE THE DRY SLOT IS STILL ON TARGET TO LARGELY IMPACE THE NWRN
AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
DEEPER MID LVL MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH OF THERE IN S CENTRAL SD.
THEREFORE FEEL THAT ONLY VERY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT IN
OUR NW AND W CENTRAL...RUNNING INTO A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE BOUNDARY
HEADING E OF THERE. THUS THE POP GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT IS ASTOUNDING
FM E CENTRAL SD MOVG EWD TOWARD THE MINNESOTA BORDER. POST CDFNT
WIND WL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WHICH WL LIKELY CREATE A LOT OF
BLSN...ESPECIALLY SINCE OUR AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SNOW SINCE
FRIDAY.
ON MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AFTER THE INITIAL CAA SURGE MOVES
THRU...THE SFC WIND WL LARGELY SETTLE DOWN INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY...GOING OFF OF THE H925-H9 WIND SPEEDS.
SFC INVERTED TROFFING FIRST SETS UP JUST E OF OUR FA ON
MONDAY...WITH IT THEN PINWHEELING BACK THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SO DUE TO A BAGGIER GRADIENT...OUR FA OVERALL
WL SEE LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STRONG
TROWAL...WHICH WAS E OF OUR FA ON THE 00Z/6TH MODEL RUNS...NOW
CLEARLY ROTATES BACK INTO OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING ON
TUE. POSSIBLY THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILTY
IN THE H7-H65 LYR PER THE EPV* WHICH IS AFFECTING SW MN AND THE IA
GRTLKS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND
COULD CREATE BANDING MDT TO HEAVY SNOW WHICH WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR THOSE AREAS. THAT IS THE PRIMARY REASON I DECIDED TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MARSHALL DOWN TO STORM LAKE IA FOR TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY...WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL...COUPLED
WITH OFF AND ON BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS.
ELSEWHERE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY EXCEPT FROM
GREGORY COUNTY...EWD TO DIXON COUNTY NEB. THOSE AREAS GET DRY
SLOTTED PRETTY HARD ALL DAY ON MONDAY AND EVEN MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RH TIME SECTIONS WHICH SHOW HOW THIN THE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS IN THOSE AREAS FOR ABOUT 18 HRS. BUT ELSEWHERE IN
THE ADVY AREA...DESPITE THE TEMPORARY DRY SLOTTING ON MONDAY...
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES WL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD FM TONIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND AND ALREADY FALLEN SNOW...
WHICH WL LIKELY CREATE A LOT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE COUNTRY.
DID NOT ALTER TEMPS MUCH. OBVIOUSLY THEY WL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME REBOUND IN THE DRY SLOT SECTOR
POSSIBLE. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROWAL EVEN SHOWS UP NICELY MONDAY
NIGHT AT H925...WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVG SWD FM THE NORTH. THEREFORE
AM WONDERING IF OUR READINGS WL BE A BIT NON DIURNAL MONDAY NIGHT.
AT ANY RATE...VERY LITTLE FALL SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM
MONDAYS HIGHS. THEN ANOTHER SLOW REBOUND ON TUESDAY. /MJF
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS
TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WESTERLY WINDS...MAY SEE VISBYS/CIGS RISE INTO THE LOW END MVFR
RANGE AROUND THE KHON TAF SITE AFTER 16Z. /JM
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001-012-020-031-032.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-097-098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR NEZ014.
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR SDZ038>040-052>062-065>067-071.
&&
$$
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