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000
FXUS63 KFSD 040337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CIRRUS
AND MID-LVL CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
DECAYING SHOWER REACHING SIOUX CITY IN THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE..WITHOUT ANY GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE RAIN MENTION OUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS TO THE COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF ATTM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 040337
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CIRRUS
AND MID-LVL CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
DECAYING SHOWER REACHING SIOUX CITY IN THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE..WITHOUT ANY GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE RAIN MENTION OUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS TO THE COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF ATTM.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 032326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VFR NIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LVL CLOUD DECK INCREASING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE INTO TUESDAY. MID-LVL
ALTOSTRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERTAKE THE REGION BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 032326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VFR NIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LVL CLOUD DECK INCREASING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE INTO TUESDAY. MID-LVL
ALTOSTRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERTAKE THE REGION BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 032326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VFR NIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LVL CLOUD DECK INCREASING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE INTO TUESDAY. MID-LVL
ALTOSTRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERTAKE THE REGION BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 032326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VFR NIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LVL CLOUD DECK INCREASING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE INTO TUESDAY. MID-LVL
ALTOSTRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERTAKE THE REGION BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 031950
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL LEAD INTO A BEAUTIFUL EVENING AS FAIRLY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...SO MAINLY 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MOST PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS STRONG THAN APPEARING
YESTERDAY...WITH A LITTLE LESS DAYTIME COOLING...DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK OK. WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE LOOKING
WEAKER AND THE FRIDAY IMPULSE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG BUT WELL
NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL FOR NOW KEEP
THE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OFFERED BY THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW COVERAGE AND WILL GO
ACCORDINGLY. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LOOK A TAD ABOVE NORMAL ON LOWS
AND A BUT BELOW NORMAL ON HIGHS...OR NOT AS COOL AS PROJECTED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY LOOK LIKE
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY WITH POPS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
INCONSISTENT NOT ONLY ON TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE BUT THE STRENGTH
THEREOF...TODAY HINTING AT LESS FLATTENING OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE. THIS SEEMS TO SET UP THE EC SOLUTION OF BUILDING THE RIDGE
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FEW DAYS AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THAT IS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SUSPICIONS OF THAT
IDEA IF ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SUMMERS SOUTHWESTERN
USA TO SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...AND THE REPEATING SHORT WAVES
BLOCKING THIS RIDGE FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. BY NEXT
MONDAY...DAY 7...WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND WE
WILL SEE IF THAT PROGRESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING WAVES
LEADS TO THE SAME DOUBT IN DAY TO DAY PRECIPITATION THREATS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031923
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL TOO
LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KFSD 031200
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE
THREAT IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER




000
FXUS63 KFSD 031200
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TOWARDS KSUX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE
THREAT IN THE TAF.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER





000
FXUS63 KFSD 030858
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO ENHANCE THIS
CIRCULATION...THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS...NMM...ARW...AND
HRRR...ARE SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER AND LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS SAME AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO FAR SRN SD...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE TO ADD
A LOW POP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST OF SIOUX CITY FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE INTO HIGH PLAINS
WILL REFOCUS LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SD/NE BORDER. ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
MODEST...APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG CAPE...FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
850 MB. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INHERENT BIAS OF THE NAM FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN OR MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS CONVECTION. AS WITH THIS MORNING...HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN MOVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO DID RAISE POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD BUT KEPT QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST BUT SHOULD NAM
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. DO
NOT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES AS ON APPROACHES I90.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE BUT THE MISSOURI VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SLIDES INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST REMAINING RAIN FREE AS A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SO THINK
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIT JUST EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
ABUNDANT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOST MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
SPLITTING AND TAKE STRENGTHENING ENERGY INTO KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WEAKENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN STRENGTHENING THE NORTHERN ENERGY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THUS LIFTS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE MOST PART DISCOUNTED THIS
SOLUTION...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE MO RIVER
CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHICH
OF THE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AS MOST MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION THROUGH
KANSAS WHICH MAY LESSEN OUR RAIN CHANCES HERE. AGAIN THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER BRINGING THE STRONGER NORTHERN ENERGY INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO HEAVIER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES
IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND HIGHER POPS IN OUR WEST AND NORTH AS THE
REMNANT OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS MID
70S TO AROUND 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 030408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DID NOT MIX OUT AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KSUX IS LOW AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 022325
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE IN KSUX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS MOST LIMITED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021954
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS POOLED JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...THIS IS MAKING FOR A
RATHER HUMID AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL APPEAR MINIMAL...OR FOCUSED JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CWA.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR MOST AREAS...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND COOL
AS TEMPERATURES FALL EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.  FURTHER
SOUTH...ELEVATED 700 MB BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NOTED BY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPRESSING OF THE PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE CUTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ON WEST SIDE OF MAJOR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL MAKE THE
ADVENT OF RAIN CHANCES SLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE REGION.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE THE THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS VARY ON
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERENT TREATMENTS OF THIS
WAVE. THE NAM IS MODEST...THE GFS IS GUNG HO...AND THE GEM/CANADIAN
LETS THE WAVE SLIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEST APPROACH ON AMOUNTS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER WAVE IS PEGGED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS ON A TRACK FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS
NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME RIDGING BEHIND IT
AND LEAD TO A DRY DAY OR SO...WHICH SEEMS TARGETED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY RIGHT NOW. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN THREAT.

THE COOL DAYS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL NIGHTS THEME SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021714
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021714
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING KSUX AT MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CU IN
THE VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. WINDS COULD TURN VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 021117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020853
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020853
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...MAKING IT THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR MOISTURE...THE MAIN EFFECTS
FOR OUR AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. INSTEAD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY EFFICIENT MIXING DAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I90 WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 80 TO 85.

A VERY SLOW MOVING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THIS
WAVE IS WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FIRST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...ALL MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF
THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTION BETWEEN I70 AND I80 AND MAY DELAY OR LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO THE CANADIAN GEM
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SHOWING THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING GENERALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR
LESS.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONT AS WELL AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FINALLY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR
MORE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL DECREASE. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AROUND 80 WHILE
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG I90 AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 60S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK WAVES MID TO
LATE WEEK. BUT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BOTH CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIGHER POPS...30 TO 50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES.
AT THIS POINT...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH
DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST WAVE EXITS AND THEN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 020506
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 012330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA AFTER 06Z. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING KHON AREA CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATER THERE
THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THAN ANY OTHER
LOCATION. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE THREAT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

LINGERING WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. INCREASING SOUTHWEST-WEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 800FT COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 02/06Z. WHILE THIS
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KFSD TAF LOCATION...APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
EAST/NORTHEAST OF KFSD AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KFSD TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 012330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA AFTER 06Z. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS...OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING KHON AREA CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATER THERE
THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THAN ANY OTHER
LOCATION. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE THREAT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

LINGERING WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. INCREASING SOUTHWEST-WEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 800FT COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 02/06Z. WHILE THIS
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KFSD TAF LOCATION...APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
EAST/NORTHEAST OF KFSD AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KFSD TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011952
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEBRASKA CONVECTION HAS PUT A DAMPER ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE AND A SLOW TO WANE LLJ HAS KEPT
CONVECTION ONGOING NEARLY ALL DAY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A PERSISTENT
FEED OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY.

12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOT VERY MUCH HELP TODAY AT ALL...WITH ONLY MODELS
THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A CLUE BEING THE 00Z ARW/NMM WITH MORE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF CAPTURING THE TRENDS REASONABLY WELL.

THAT SAID...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST
OF BISMARCK AND SENDING AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS
NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN A STICKING POINT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...SOLNS WITH LOWER FCST VALUES HAVE SEEMED TO DO
BETTER.  SOUTHWEST OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE REMNANT
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AOA 700MB...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP GIVEN THE POOR HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SD AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH SEEM TO BE ROOTED
ABOVE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOL
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
FURTHER AND BECOME SFC BASED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY MAY STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IN EASTERN ND AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN SD BEHIND THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND SVR WX RISKS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THESE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

BY SUNDAY...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL BUT NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. THE TONE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK IS FOR A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE..TEMPERATURES GOING
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND PERIODIC HARD TO TIME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST AS EARLIER FIGURED AND HAVE HELD OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO GET TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MENTION OVER ALL OF THE AREA. MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFICULTIES...POPS WILL BE CHANCE AT MOST. WILL GO WITH THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ON A MENTION EACH PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ON FOR THE
SAME REASON AS ABOVE...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN ANY DRY
PERIODS ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OR THREE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE AREA.

AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE OPPOSITE OF OUR RECENT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH THE CHANGE TO OVERALL NEAR NORMAL NIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011716
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011716
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011716
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011537
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011537
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 011124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS63 KFSD 011124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010840
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GNERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
PRIMARY QUESTION BEING CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
INCREASE AFTER 01/21Z...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SPECIFIC POINT LOCATIONS
IS LOW...BUT WITH MODEST AGREEMENT IN TIMING AMONG VARIOUS MODELS...
OPTED TO INCLUDE BRIEF WINDOW FOR KFSD/KSUX TO INDICATE MORE LIKELY
WINDOW OF POTENTIAL. THIS TIMING LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED/EXPANDED AS
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR WITH TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ON SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEARING 20KT POSSIBLE IN MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KFSD 010840
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.

WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GNERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
PRIMARY QUESTION BEING CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS
TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
INCREASE AFTER 01/21Z...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SPECIFIC POINT LOCATIONS
IS LOW...BUT WITH MODEST AGREEMENT IN TIMING AMONG VARIOUS MODELS...
OPTED TO INCLUDE BRIEF WINDOW FOR KFSD/KSUX TO INDICATE MORE LIKELY
WINDOW OF POTENTIAL. THIS TIMING LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED/EXPANDED AS
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR WITH TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ON SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEARING 20KT POSSIBLE IN MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JH




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